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TitreDateDurée
Pheromones: Is sexy sweat the key to genetic diversity?24 Feb 202500:57:54

Sweaty t-shirt dating parties, sex pheromone dating sites, choosing your dating partner by sniffing them up — wacko fringe fads or evidence-based mating strategies? And what does your armpit stain have to do with your kids’ immune systems, or hormonal contraceptive pills, or divorce rates? 


In this episode of Normal Curves, Kristin and Regina reach back into the 1990s and revisit the scientific paper that started it all: The Sweaty T-Shirt Study. They bring a sharp eye and open mind, critically examining the study and following the line of research to today. Along the way, they encounter interesting statistical topics—including correlated observations, within-person study design, and bar-chart blasphemy—with a short, surprising detour into Neanderthal sex. 


Statistical topics

  • Correlated observations
  • Within-person study design
  • Bar charts 
  • Data and methodological transparency
  • Cherry-picking
  • Meta-analysis
  • Multiple testing
  • Post-hoc analyses

Methodological morals

“Repeat after me: Bar charts are not for numerical data.”

“Those who ignore dependencies in their data are destined for flawed conclusions.”

References


Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program

Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 


Find us on:
Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X
Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (02:27) - Pheromone Dating Parties
  • (06:57) - Pheromone Dating Sites and Genetic Matching
  • (10:47) - The Science of HLA Genes and Mate Selection
  • (18:08) - Breaking Down the Original Sweaty T-Shirt Study
  • (23:08) - Study Design Flaws and Data Transparency Issues
  • (27:31) - Statistical Flaws: Correlated Observations Explained
  • (35:22) - Analyzing the Study's Questionable Results
  • (38:18) - The Pill's Influence on Scent Preferences
  • (41:26) - Overstated Conclusions and Wandering Discussions
  • (46:09) - Media Reactions and the Study’s Public Impact
  • (52:22) - Other Studies and their results
  • (55:01) - Conclusion
 
Normal Curves: Who are we and what is this podcast about? 17 Feb 202500:13:31

Welcome to a lively conversation about science that's like a journal club, but with less jargon, more fun, and a touch of PG-13 flair. In this introduction, Professors Regina Nuzzo and Kristin Sainani share how they met in graduate school, what they’ve been doing since then, how they’ll choose edgy topics and journal articles to dissect, and a bit about what makes them tick. Join them for their fresh, engaging take on scientific studies, data analysis, and statistical sleuthing.

Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 


Program that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program

Find us on:
Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X
Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

  • (00:00) - Introduction to Normal Curves
  • (03:49) - How We Met and Our Lasting Friendship
  • (05:24) - Career Paths
  • (08:07) - The Art of Evaluating Scientific Studies
  • (09:06) - Personal Health Journeys and Biases
  • (10:48) - Shameless Course Plugs & Teaching
  • (12:37) - Podcast Origins & Conclusion
Normal Curves Trailer13 Feb 202500:02:09

Normal Curves is a podcast about sexy science & serious statistics. Ever try to make sense of a scientific study and the numbers behind it? Listen in to a lively conversation between two stats-savvy friends who break it all down with humor and clarity. Professors Regina Nuzzo of Gallaudet University and Kristin Sainani of Stanford University discuss academic papers journal club-style — except with more fun, less jargon, and some irreverent, PG-13 content sprinkled in. Join Kristin and Regina as they dissect the data, challenge the claims, and arm you with tools to assess scientific studies on your own.

Vitamin D Part 2: Good for more than just your bones?24 Mar 202501:09:19

Can you really sit on your couch, pop vitamin D pills, and shave seconds off your 5k? Touted as a miracle cure-all, vitamin D is claimed to slash cancer and infection risks while boosting mood, cognition, and athletic performance. But does upping your vitamin D really make you healthier and happier? In this episode, we’ll follow the epidemiologic evidence—from clues in petri dishes through randomized trials. Along our journey, we’ll encounter chocolate-fueled Nobel Prizes, rock stars, pasty Brits, and a tangled mess of promiscuous variables.


Statistical topics

  • ecological studies
  • ecological fallacy
  • correlation is not causation
  • observational studies
  • statistical adjustment
  • confounding
  • randomized trials
  • factorial design
  • post-hoc analyses
  • subgroup analyses

Methodologic morals

  • “Variables with too many entanglements make observational studies a fool’s game.”
  • “If your intervention works only when you torture your data, it’s probably a false confession.”


Citations

Garland CF, Garland FC. Do sunlight and vitamin D reduce the likelihood of colon cancer? Int J Epidemiol. 1980;9:227-31.


Messerli FH. Chocolate consumption, cognitive function, and Nobel laureates. N Engl J Med. 2012;367:1562-64.


Holick, MF. The Vitamin D Solution: A 3-Step Strategy to Cure Our Most Common Health Problems. Penguin Publishing Group, 2011. 

McMillan A. Can vitamin D boost your fitness routine? Dec 18, 2018.

Marawan A, Kurbanova N, Qayyum R. Association between serum vitamin D levels and cardiorespiratory fitness in the adult population of the USA. Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2019;26:750-55.

Vitamin D levels in the blood linked to cardiorespiratory fitness. European Society of Cardiology. Oct 30, 2018.

Jones AM, Kirby BS, Clark IE, et al. Physiological demands of running at 2-hour marathon race pace. J Appl Physiol. 2021;130:369-79.

Manson JE, Bassuk SS, Lee IM, et al. The VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL): rationale and design of a large randomized controlled trial of vitamin D and marine omega-3 fatty acid supplements for the primary prevention of cancer and cardiovascular disease. Contemp Clin Trials. 2012;33:159-71.

Manson JE, Cook NR, Lee IM, et al. Vitamin D supplements and prevention of cancer and cardiovascular disease. NEJM. 2019;380:33-44.

Lee KL, McNeer JF, Starmer CF, et al. Clinical judgment and statistics: lessons from a simulated randomized trial in coronary artery disease. Circulation. 1980; 61:508-15.

Wood S. VITAL: No Benefits to Vitamin D and Omega-3s in Reducing Major CV Events, Cancer. TCTMD.com. Nov 10, 2018.

Neale RE, Baxter C, Romero BD, et al. The D-Health Trial: a randomised controlled trial of the effect of vitamin D on mortality. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2022;10:120-28.

Okereke OI, Reynolds CF, Mischoulon D, et al. Effect of Long-term Vitamin D3 Supplementation vs Placebo on Risk of Depression or Clinically Relevant Depressive Symptoms and on Change in Mood Scores: A Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA. 2020;324:471-80.

LeBoff MS, Murata EM, Cook NR, et al. VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL): Effects of Vitamin D Supplements on Risk of Falls in the US Population. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2020;105:2929-38.

Albert CM, Cook NR, Pester J, et al. Effect of Marine Omega-3 Fatty Acid and Vitamin D Supplementation on Incident Atrial Fibrillation: A Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA. 2021;325:1061-73.

Rist PM, Buring JE, Cook NR, et al. Effect of Vitamin D and/or Marine n-3 Fatty Acid Supplementation on Changes in Migraine Frequency and Severity. Am J Med. 2021;134:756-62.

Christen WG, Cook NR, Manson JE, et al. Effect of Vitamin D and ω-3 Fatty Acid Supplementation on Risk of Age-Related Macular Degeneration: An Ancillary Study of the VITAL Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA Ophthalmol. 2020;138:1280-89.

MacFarlane LA, Cook NR, Kim E, et al. The Effects of Vitamin D and Marine Omega-3 Fatty Acid Supplementation on Chronic Knee Pain in Older US Adults: Results From a Randomized Trial. Arthritis Rheumatol. 2020 Nov;72(11):1836-1844.

Chou SH, Murata EM, Yu C, et al. Effects of Vitamin D3 Supplementation on Body Composition in the VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL). J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2021;106:1377-88.

Kang JH, Vyas CM, Okereke OI, et al. Effect of vitamin D on cognitive decline: results from two ancillary studies of the VITAL randomized trial. Sci Rep. 2021;11:23253.

Rist PM, Buring JE, Cook NR, et al. Effect of vitamin D and/or omega‐3 fatty acid supplementation on stroke outcomes: A randomized trial. Eur J Neurol. 2021;28:809-15.

Hahn J, Cook NR, Alexander EK, et al. Vitamin D and marine omega 3 fatty acid supplementation and incident autoimmune disease: VITAL randomized controlled trial. BMJ. 2022;376:e066452

LeBoff MS, Chou SH, Murata EM, et al. Effects of Supplemental Vitamin D on Bone Health Outcomes in Women and Men in the VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL). J Bone Miner Res. 2020;35:883-93.

LeBoff MS, Chou SH, Ratliff KA, et al. Supplemental vitamin D and incident fractures in midlife and older adults. NEJM. 2022;387:299-309.

Kolata G. Study finds another condition that vitamin D pills do not help. The New York Times. July 27, 2022

Jolliffe DA, Holt H, Greenig M, et al. Effect of a test-and-treat approach to vitamin D supplementa...

Vitamin D Part 1: Is the Deficiency Epidemic Real?10 Mar 202501:23:09

Is America really facing an epidemic of vitamin D deficiency? While this claim is widely believed, the story behind it is packed with twists, turns, and some pesky statistical cockroaches. In this episode, we’ll dive into a study on Hawaiian surfers, expose how shifting goalposts can create an epidemic, tackle dueling medical guidelines, and flex our statistical sleuthing skills. By the end, you might wonder if the real deficiency lies in the data.

Statistical topics

  • dichotomization
  • normal distribution 
  • standard deviation
  • researcher biases
  • conflicts of interest
  • statistical sleuthing


Methodologic morals

  • “Arbitrary thresholds make for arbitrary diseases.”
  • “Statistical errors are like cockroaches: Where there’s one, there’s many.”

Note that all blood vitamin D levels discussed in the podcast are 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels given in units of ng/ml. To convert from ng/ml to nmol/L, use the formula: nmol/L=2.5*ng/ml. For example, a vitamin D level of 30 ng/mL corresponds to 75 nmol/L.


Citations
Dr. Rhonda Patrick: Micronutrients for Health & Longevity. Huberman Lab Podcast. May 1, 2022

Noh CK, Lee MJ, Kim BK, et al. A Case of Nutritional Osteomalacia in Young Adult Male. J Bone Metab. 2013; 20:51-55.

Binkley N, Novotny R, Krueger D, et al. Low vitamin D status despite abundant sun exposure. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2007;92:2130-5. 

Malabanan A, Veronikis IE, Holick MF. Redefining Vitamin D Insufficiency. Lancet. 1998;351:805-6. 

Dawson-Hughes B, Heaney RP, Holick MF, et al. Estimates of optimal vitamin D status. Osteoporos Int. 2005;16:713-6.

Holick MF. Vitamin D deficiency. N Engl J Med. 2007;357:266-81.

Cui A, Xiao P, Ma Y, et al. Prevalence, trend, and predictor analyses of vitamin D deficiency in the US population, 2001-2018. Front Nutr. 2022;9:965376. 

Ross AC, Manson JE, Abrams SA, et al. The 2011 report on dietary reference intakes for calcium and vitamin D from the Institute of Medicine: what clinicians need to know. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2011;96:53-8. 

Holick MF, Binkley NC, Bischoff-Ferrari HA, et al. Evaluation, Treatment, and Prevention of Vitamin D Deficiency: an Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guideline. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2011;96:1911-30. 

Manson JE, Brannon PM, Rosen CJ, et al. Vitamin D deficiency-is there really a pandemic. N Engl J Med. 2016;375:1817-20. 

Conti G, Chirico V, Lacquaniti A, et al. Vitamin D intoxication in two brothers: be careful with dietary supplements. J Pediatr Endocrinol Metab. 2014;27:763-7.

Holick, Michael, et al. The UV Advantage. Ibooks, 2004.

Holick, Michael F. The Vitamin D Solution: A 3-Step Strategy to Cure Our Most Common Health Problems. Penguin Publishing Group, 2011.

Szabo, Liz. Vitamin D, the Sunshine Supplement, Has Shadowy Money Behind It. The New York Times. August 18, 2018.

Lee JM, Smith JR, Philipp BL, Chen TC, Mathieu J, Holick MF. Vitamin D deficiency in a healthy group of mothers and newborn infants. Clin Pediatr. 2007;46:42-4. 

Holick MF. Vitamin D deficiency: what a pain it is. Mayo Clin Proc. 2003;78:1457-9.

Passeri G, Pini G, Troiano L, et al. Low Vitamin D Status, High Bone Turnover, and Bone Fractures in Centenarians. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2003;88:5109-15. 

Armstrong, David. The Child Abuse Contrarian. ProPublica. September 16, 2018.


Irwig MS, Kyinn M, Shefa MC. Financial Conflicts of Interest Among Authors of Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guidelines. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2018;103:4333-38. 

Demay MB, Pittas AG, Bikle DD, et al. Vitamin D for the Prevention of Disease: An Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guideline. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2024;109:1907-47.

McCartney CR, McDonnell ME, Corrigan MD, et al. Vitamin D Insufficiency and Epistemic Humility: An Endocrine Society Guideline Communication. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2024; 109:1948–54.

See our detailed notes here

Kristin and Regina’s online courses
Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding 

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis

Medical Statistics Certificate Program 

Writing in the Sciences

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program

Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 


Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com


Chapters:

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (02:55) - Sources of Vitamin D
  • (05:43) - What is Vitamin D & Why Do We Need It?
  • (07:07) - Vitamin D Deficiency & Rickets
  • (10:03) - Defining Vitamin D Deficiency – Changing the Goalposts
  • ...
Sugar Sag: Is Your Diet Aging You?19 May 202501:08:27

Wrinkles and sagging skin—just normal aging, or can you blame your sweet tooth? We dive into “sugar sag,” exploring how sugar, processed foods, and even your crispy breakfast toast might be making you look older than if you’d said no to chocolate cake and yes to broccoli. Along the way, we encounter statistical adjustment, training and test data sets, what we call “references to nowhere,” plus some cadavers and collagen. Ever heard of an AGE reader? Find out how this tool might offer a sneak peek at your date’s age—and maybe even a clue about his… um… “performance.”

Statistical topics 

  • Training and test sets
  • Statistical adjustment
  • Overfitting 
  • Plagiarism
  • Proper citing practices
  • References to nowhere


Methodologic morals

  • “When you plagiarize, you steal the errors too.”
  • “Overdone statistical adjustment is like overdone photo filters–at a certain point it’s just laughable.”


Citations


Collagen turnover: 

Cadaver study:


AGE Reader


Studies of AGEs and diabetes and health:


Review article with conflicts of interest: 


Clinical study on AGE interrupter cream:

The citation trail:

  • 2023 review article: Zgutka K, Tkacz M, Tomasiak, et al. A Role for Advanced Glycation End Products in Molecular Ageing. Int J Mol Sci. 2023; 24: 9881. Sentence: “Interestingly, strict control of blood sugar for 4 months reduced the production of glycosylated collagen by 25%, and low-sugar food prepared by boiling could also reduce the production of AGEs [152].”
  • Reference 152 is a review article: Cao C, Xiao Z, Wu Y, et al. Diet and Skin Aging-From the Perspective of Food Nutrition. Nutrients. 2020;12:870. Sentence: “However, strict control of blood sugar for four months can reduce the production of glycosylated collagen by 25%, and low-sugar food prepared by boiling can also reduce the production of AGEs [93–95].”
  • Reference 93 is a review article: Nguyen HP, Katta R. Sugar sag: Glycation and the role of diet in aging skin. Skin Ther Lett. 2015; 20: 1–5. Sentence: “Tight glycemic control over a 4-month period can result in a reduction of glycated collagen formation by 25%.37,38”
  • Reference 94 and 38 is a review article: Draelos ZD. Aging skin: the role of diet: facts and controversies. Clin Dermatol. 2013;31:701-6. Sentence: “Tighter glycemic control can reduce glycated collagen by 25% in 4 months.” No citation given.
  • Reference 95 and 37 is a review article: Danby FW. Nutrition and aging skin: Sugar and glycation. Clin. Dermatol. 2010;28: 409–11. Sentence: “...tight glycemic control can drop glycated collagen formation by 25% in 4 months.” No citation given.
  • The origi...
Hookworms: Can parasites improve your health? 05 May 202501:08:00

What if you could treat your prediabetes with . . . worms? Regina and Kristin dive into a surprising early-phase clinical trial on hookworm therapy—that’s right, intentionally infecting yourself with parasitic worms—to treat metabolic conditions. They dig into the biological rationale (inflammation, abdominal fat, and gut immunology), the clever study design (hello, Tabasco sauce!), and the statistical chops behind this phase 1B trial (block randomization, missing data, and nonparametric hypothesis tests).  Along the way, expect self-experimenting scientists, worm sex, poop analysis, and the world’s nerdiest aphrodisiac: a well-documented protocol.

Statistical topics

  • Randomized controlled trial (RCT)
  • Primary and secondary outcomes
  • Placebos, placebo effect, and nocebo effect
  • Block randomization
  • Sample size
  • Double-blinding
  • Missing data protocols
  • Reproducible research
  • Nonparametric hypothesis testing
  • Kruskal-Wallis test

Methodological morals

  • “Walk before you can run. Invest in simple but high-quality Phase I clinical trials.”
  • “When faced with small samples, you better rank and sum, baby.”

References


Kristin and Regina’s online courses

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 


Program we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 


Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com


  • (02:44) - What happens when scientists experiment on themselves
  • (06:56) - Mail-order DIY helminthic therapy
  • (09:26) - Hookworm biology
  • (15:53) - Inflammation, abdominal fat, immune system, and hookworms
  • (21:29) - Hookworm therapy clinical trial design
  • (26:00) - Clinical trial phases deep dive
  • (31:24) - Interesting placebos (sham surgeries and psychedelics)
  • (37:33) - Excitement over hookworm trial open data and data protocols
  • (44:45) - Hookworm trial results
  • (48:48) - Mood and well-being with hookworms
  • (53:26) - Effects of hookworms on weight
  • (56:09) - Nonparametric tests and how they work
  • (01:02:56) - What the participants did after the study
  • (01:04:53) - Wrap-up

Alcohol: Are happy hours good for your heart?21 Apr 202501:05:31

Does a daily glass of wine really keep the cardiologist away? It’s a claim we’ve all heard: light to moderate drinking is good for your heart. But is it science or just a convenient excuse for happy hour? In this episode, we dive into the history behind this claim, discuss the challenges of observational studies and statistical adjustment, and explore attempts at randomized trials and natural experiments to get to the bottom of this boozy debate. Grab your drink—or maybe don’t—and join us!


Statistical topics

  • Statistical Adjustment
  • Regression
  • Residual and Unmeasured Confounding
  • Randomized Trials
  • Multiple Testing
  • Outcome Switching
  • Mendelian Randomization 


Methodological morals
“Statistical adjustment cannot erase all confounding.”

“When you can’t experiment on people, let Nature experiment on people.”


Citations


Page with more details on the CASCADE trial


Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 


Program that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 


Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com


  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (03:00) - Drinking habits in America
  • (04:13) - New Canadian drinking guidelines
  • (07:51) - Definition of light-to-moderate drinking
  • (08:43) - Risks and benefits of light-to-moderate drinking
  • (11:37) - History of the heart health claim
  • (18:34) - Problems with observational studies
  • (22:40) - Statistical adjustment
  • (25:39) - Residual and unmeasured confounding
  • (31:19) - Overconfidence in observational studies
  • (35:16) - Randomized trials of alcohol
  • (36:32) - Canceled NIH randomized trial of alcohol
  • (41:42) - The CASCADE randomized trial of wine
  • (43:18) - The problem of multiple testing
  • (47:56) - Outcome switching
  • (49:32) - Mendelian randomization
  • (59:04) - Mendelian randomization studies of alcohol and heart disease
  • (01:03:09) - Wrap-up
The Red Dress Effect: Are women in red sexier?07 Apr 202501:08:45

Wear red and drive men wild with lust – or so says scientific research on color’s role in human mating. But can a simple color swap really boost a woman’s hotness score? In this episode, we delve into the evidence behind the Red Dress Effect, from a controversial first study in college men to what the latest research says about who this trick might work for (and who it might not). Along the way we encounter red monkey butts, old-Internet websites, the Winner’s Curse in scientific research, adversarial collaborations, and why size (ahem, sample size) really does matter. 

Statistical topics

  • Reproducibility crisis in psychology
  • Sample size
  • Selection bias
  • Winner’s curse
  • Cohen’s d standardized effect size
  • Adversarial collaboration
  • Meta-analysis
  • Preregistration
  • Publication bias
  • Statistical moderators

Methodological morals

“The smaller the sample, the flashier the result, the less you should trust it.”

“Good scientists learn from their statistical mistakes and fix them.”



References


Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program

Chapters

  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (06:04) - Red Dress Effect on TV
  • (10:01) - Red Monkey Butts
  • (12:56) - 2008 Study on Romantic Red
  • (16:04) - HotOrNot.com
  • (20:10) - 2008 Study Results
  • (25:10) - Cohen’s d Standardized Effect Size
  • (30:52) - Problems with Small Sample Sizes
  • (34:12) - Winner’s Curse and Publication Bias
  • (38:40) - Reproducibility Crisis
  • (44:03) - Adversarial Collaboration
  • (49:01) - Meta-Analysis and Pre-Registration
  • (55:23) - Adversarial Discussion Sections and Updates
  • (01:02:55) - Latest Red Study
  • (01:06:26) - Wrap-Up


Dating Wishlists: Are we happier when we get what we want in a mate?14 Jul 202501:05:31

Loyal, funny, hot — you’ve probably got a wish list for your dream partner. But does checking all your boxes actually lead to happily ever after? In this episode, we dive into a massive global study that put the “ideal partner” hypothesis to the test. Do people really know what they want, and does getting it actually make them happier? We explore surprising statistical insights from over 10,000 romantics in 43 countries, from mean-centering and interaction effects to the good-catch confounder. Along the way, we dig into dessert metaphors, partner boat-count regression models, and the one trait that people say doesn’t matter — but secretly makes them happiest.


Statistical topics

  • Regression
  • Random Slopes and Intercepts (Random Effects) in Regression
  • Standardized Beta Coefficients in Regression
  • Interaction Effects in Regression
  • Mean Centering
  • Exploratory Analyses


Methodological morals

“Good science bares it all.”

“When the world isn't one size fits all, don't fit just one line; use random slopes and intercepts.”



References

  • Eastwick PW, Sparks J, Finkel EJ, Meza EM, Adamkovič M, Adu P, Ai T, Akintola AA, Al-Shawaf L, Apriliawati D, Arriaga P, Aubert-Teillaud B, Baník G, Barzykowski K, Batres C, Baucom KJ, Beaulieu EZ, Behnke M, Butcher N, Charles DY, Chen JM, Cheon JE, Chittham P, Chwiłkowska P, Cong CW, Copping LT, Corral-Frias NS, Ćubela Adorić V, Dizon M, Du H, Ehinmowo MI, Escribano DA, Espinosa NM, Expósito F, Feldman G, Freitag R, Frias Armenta M, Gallyamova A, Gillath O, Gjoneska B, Gkinopoulos T, Grafe F, Grigoryev D, Groyecka-Bernard A, Gunaydin G, Ilustrisimo R, Impett E, Kačmár P, Kim YH, Kocur M, Kowal M, Krishna M, Labor PD, Lu JG, Lucas MY, Małecki WP, Malinakova K, Meißner S, Meier Z, Misiak M, Muise A, Novak L, O J, Özdoğru AA, Park HG, Paruzel M, Pavlović Z, Püski M, Ribeiro G, Roberts SC, Röer JP, Ropovik I, Ross RM, Sakman E, Salvador CE, Selcuk E, Skakoon-Sparling S, Sorokowska A, Sorokowski P, Spasovski O, Stanton SCE, Stewart SLK, Swami V, Szaszi B, Takashima K, Tavel P, Tejada J, Tu E, Tuominen J, Vaidis D, Vally Z, Vaughn LA, Villanueva-Moya L, Wisnuwardhani D, Yamada Y, Yonemitsu F, Žídková R, Živná K, Coles NA. A worldwide test of the predictive validity of ideal partner preference matching. J Pers Soc Psychol. 2025 Jan;128(1):123-146. doi: 10.1037/pspp0000524
  • Love Factually Podcast: https://www.lovefactuallypod.com/


Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 


Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 


Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com


  • (00:00) -
  • (00:00) - Intro
  • (04:57) - Actual dating profile wishlists vs study wishlists
  • (09:12) - Juicy paper details
  • (18:31) - What the study actually asked – wishlist, partner resume, relationship satisfaction
  • (24:10) - Linear regression illustrated through number of boats your partner has
  • (30:37) - Standardized regression coefficients illustrated through spouse height concordance
  • (34:52) - Good catch confounder: We all just want the same high-quality ice cream / mate
  • (39:46) - Does your personalized wishlist matter? Results
  • (42:01) - Wishlist regression interaction effects: like chocolate and peanut butter
  • (45:51) - Partner traits result in happiness bonus points
  • (49:51) - What do we say we want – and what really makes us happy? Surprise
  • (54:10) - Gender stereotypes and whether they held up
  • (56:51) - Random effects models and boats again
  • (59:30) - Other cool things they did
  • (01:00:41) - One-minute paper summary
  • (01:02:23) - Wrap-up, rate the claim, methodological morals


Stats Reunion: What have we learned so far?30 Jun 202500:56:00

It’s our first stats reunion! In this special review episode, we revisit favorite concepts from past episodes—p-values, multiple testing, regression adjustment—and give them fresh personalities as characters. Meet the seductive false positive, the clingy post hoc ex, and Charlotte, the well-meaning but overfitting idealist.


Statistical topics

  • Bar charts vs Box plots
  • Bonferroni correction
  • Confounding
  • False positives 
  • Multiple testing
  • Multivariable regression
  • Outcome switching
  • Over-adjustment
  • Post hoc analysis
  • Pre-registration
  • Residual confounding
  • Statistical adjustment using regression
  • Subgroup analysis 
  • Unmeasured confounding


Review Sheet


References


Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 


Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 


Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

  • (00:00) - Intro
  • (02:26) - Mailbag
  • (06:42) - P-values
  • (12:43) - Multiple Testing Guy
  • (16:05) - Bonferroni solution
  • (17:11) - Post hoc analysis ex
  • (22:22) - Subgroup analysis person
  • (29:34) - Statistical adjustment idealist
  • (43:00) - Unmeasured confounding
  • (44:25) - Residual confounding
  • (48:31) - Over-adjustment
  • (53:48) - Wrap-up
HPV Vaccine: How close are we to wiping out cervical cancer?16 Jun 202501:15:57

Could a preteen vaccine wipe out a global cancer? In this episode, we examine the bold claim that cervical cancer could be eradicated in much of the world by the end of the century—thanks to the highly effective HPV vaccine. We unpack statistical modeling, microsimulations, and how Markov chains make good date-night conversation. We also explore why vaccine uptake has been uneven, how a splash of vinegar is helping screen for cancer in low-resource countries, and why HPV isn’t just a women’s issue—it now causes more cancer in men than in women. Plus: dangerously tight corsets, allegedly breast-squeezing nuns, and the Cosmo quote we wish we’d written ourselves.

Statistical topics:

  • Cancer surveillance
  • Markov models
  • Microsimulation models
  • Sensitivity analyses
  • Passive surveillance
  • Background rates
  • Case reports and case series


Methodologic morals:

  • “When reality is too complex to test, let microsimulations do the rest.”
  • “Case reports are medicine's equivalent to see something, say something. They call for hard data, not hysteria.”


Citations:

Equipment Size: What is average?02 Jun 202500:54:20

Today’s deep dive: the surprisingly serious science of penis size. Using self-report surveys, objective measurements, and a healthy dose of old-school statistics, we ask: How do you get clean data on gentlemen’s goods?Along the way, we explore social desirability bias, survey design tricks, and what happens when science meets insecurity. You’ll never look at a Starbucks cup the same way again.

Statistical topics

  • Social desirability bias
  • Selection bias
  • Volunteer Bias
  • Descriptive Statistics
  • Right-Skewed Distributions
  • Strategies to improve accuracy in self-report data

Methodological morals

  • “When answers aim to please, truth takes its leave.”
  • “Without descriptive statistics, you'll never know if you measure up.”

References


Spreadsheet with Penis Length Data


Our online courses and programs: 

Find us on social:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com




  • (00:00) - Introduction
  • (02:33) - Starbucks metric and episode themes
  • (07:17) - Men and women’s sampling frames
  • (09:24) - Kinsey and his studies
  • (14:59) - Statistics quiz on Kinsey penis data
  • (21:16) - Social desirability bias
  • (28:23) - Cognitive tricks to elicit honest survey answers
  • (34:16) - Condoms, honest penis lengths, and another stats quiz
  • (40:36) - Objective penis appraisers, measurement error, and reliability
  • (45:48) - Whose penises? Volunteer and selection bias
  • (49:33) - Mini-meta-analysis and the “answer”
  • (51:12) - Wrap-up and methodological morals


Your Brain on AI: Is ChatGPT making us mentally lazy?11 Aug 202501:14:07

ChatGPT is melting our brainpower, killing creativity, and making us soulless — or so the headlines imply. We dig into the study behind the claims, starting with quirky bar charts and mysterious sample sizes, then winding through hairball-like brain diagrams and tens of thousands of statistical tests. Our statistical sleuthing leaves us with questions, not just about the results, but about whether this was science’s version of a first date that looked better on paper.

Statistical topics

  • ANOVA
  • Bar graphs
  • Data visualization 
  • False Discovery Rate correction
  • Multiple testing
  • Preprints
  • Statistical Sleuthing

Methodological morals

  • "Treat your preprints like your blind dates. Show up showered and with teeth brushed."
  • "Always check your N. Then check it again."
  • "Never make a bar graph that just shows p-values. Ever."

Link to paper


Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

Programs that we teach in:

Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com


  • (00:00) - Intro
  • (03:46) - Media coverage of the study
  • (08:35) - The experiment
  • (12:09) - Sample size issues
  • (13:11) - Bar chart sleuthing
  • (19:15) - Blind date analogy
  • (22:57) - Interview results
  • (29:07) - Simple text analysis results
  • (33:07) - Natural language processing results
  • (40:03) - N-gram and ontology analysis results
  • (44:58) - Teacher evaluation results
  • (51:33) - Neuroimaging analysis
  • (59:35) - Multiple testing and connectivity issues
  • (01:05:13) - Brain adaptation results
  • (01:08:50) - Wrap-up, rating, and methodological morals



The Backfire Effect: Can fact-checking make false beliefs stronger?28 Jul 202500:58:26

Can correcting misinformation make it worse? The “backfire effect” claims that debunking myths can actually make false beliefs stronger. We dig into the evidence — from ghost studies to headline-making experiments — to see if this psychological plot twist really holds up. Along the way, we unpack interaction effects, randomization red flags, and what happens when bad citations take on a life of their own. Plus: dirty talk analogies, statistical sleuthing, and why “familiarity” might be your brain’s sneakiest trick.


Statistical topics

  • Computational replication
  • Replication
  • Block randomization
  • Problems in randomization
  • Bad citing
  • Interactions in regression


Unpublished "Ghost Paper"



Citations

Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 


Programs that we teach in:


Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

  • (00:00) -
  • (00:00) - Intro
  • (02:05) - What is the backfire effect?
  • (03:55) - The 2010 paper that panicked fact-checkers
  • (06:25) - The ghost paper what it really said
  • (12:35) - Study design of the 2010 paper
  • (18:25) - Results of the 2010 paper
  • (19:55) - Crossover interactions, regression models, and intimate talk
  • (25:24) - Missing data and cleaning your bedroom analogy
  • (28:11) - Fact-checking the fact-checking paper
  • (33:07) - Replication and pushing the data to the limit
  • (36:59) - The purported backfire effect spreads
  • (41:06) - The 2017 paper that got a lot of attention
  • (44:25) - Statistical sleuthing the 2017 paper
  • (48:51) - Will researchers double down on their earlier conclusions?
  • (54:46) - A review paper sums it all up
  • (56:00) - Wrap up, rating, and methodological morals


Exercise and Cancer: Does physical activity improve colon cancer survival?08 Sep 202500:49:04

Exercise has long been hailed as cancer-fighting magic, but is there hard evidence behind the hype? In this episode, we tackle the CHALLENGE trial, a large phase III study of colon cancer patients that tested whether prescribed exercise could improve cancer-free survival. We translate clinical jargon into plain English, show why ratio statistics make splashy headlines while absolute differences tell the real story, and take a detour into why statisticians think survival analysis is downright sexy. And we even bring in a classic reality show to make sense of the numbers.


Statistical topics

  • Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB)
  • Hazard ratios
  • Intention-to-treat analysis
  • Interim analyses
  • Kaplan-Meier curves
  • Phase III trials
  • Randomized clinical trial
  • Rates and rate ratios
  • Relative vs absolute differences
  • Stratified randomization with minimization
  • Survival analysis
  • Time-to-event variables

Methodological morals

  • “Ratio statistics sell headlines. Absolute differences sell truth.”
  • “Survival analysis is this sexy stats tool that makes every moment and every Cox count.”

References


Thanks

Thanks to Caitlin Goodrich for the episode topic tip!

Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 


Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

  • (00:00) - Intro
  • (05:42) - Two different types of cancer studies
  • (08:12) - Why might exercise affect cancer?
  • (10:05) - Phase III trials are different
  • (12:40) - Who was in the CHALLENGE trial?
  • (13:31) - Stratified randomization with minimization
  • (15:05) - The exercise prescription
  • (18:23) - What did the CHALLENGE trial measure?
  • (19:10) - Disease-free survival
  • (21:05) - Data and Safety Monitoring Board – what do they do?
  • (23:41) - Participants and adherence to exercise
  • (26:00) - Intention-to-treat analysis
  • (29:04) - Survival analysis overview
  • (30:57) - Kaplan-Meier curves
  • (33:33) - Reality-show analogy
  • (36:00) - Ratio statistics are confusing
  • (38:36) - Hazard ratios
  • (46:09) - Wrap-up, rating, and methodological morals

Age Gaps: How much does age matter in dating?25 Aug 202500:49:42

Are we all secretly ageist when it comes to dating? We put the stereotype that older men prefer younger women under the microscope using data from thousands of blind dates. What we found surprised us: the “age penalty” was real but microscopic, women wanted younger partners too, and hard age cutoffs weren’t so hard after all. Along the way, we unpack statistical significance versus practical importance, play with the infamous “half your age plus seven” rule, and imagine what it would take for love to die out… somewhere around age 628.


Statistical topics

  • Discontinuous regression
  • Effect sizes
  • Extrapolation pitfalls
  • Linear regression
  • Logistic regression
  • Odds ratios
  • Open data
  • Statistical significance vs. practical significance



Methodological morals

  • Do not be swept off your feet by statistical significance. Tiny effects in bed are still tiny.
  • Fancy units sound smart, but plain English wins hearts.”


Show Notes Technical Appendix (with step-by-step explanations)

References


Kristin and Regina’s online courses: 

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding  

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis 

Medical Statistics Certificate Program  

Writing in the Sciences 

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 

Programs that we teach in:

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program 


Find us on:

Kristin -  LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

  • (00:00) - Intro
  • (04:01) - Half-your-age-plus-seven rule
  • (09:15) - Matchmaking service for the study
  • (17:05) - Blind dates as natural experiments
  • (21:55) - Regression results part 1: Age penalties?
  • (28:38) - Wait, how big of an effect was that?
  • (34:09) - Odds ratio of a second date
  • (38:01) - Surprising age pair-ups
  • (40:53) - Regression results part 2: Deal-breaking age limits?
  • (44:27) - Why the patterns may or may not be true
  • (46:30) - Wrap-up, ratings, and methodological morals


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