• European bourses opened mixed but now in the red, US futures also lower ahead of NVIDIA results.
• USD is fractionally extending on Tuesday’s upside, Kiwi leads after RBNZ delivers a hawkish cut.
• 40yr JGB auction weighs, awaiting US supply & FOMC Minutes.
• Energy markets await JMMC/OPEC+; Metals tread water.
• US President Trump says Canada joining the Golden Dome is free if they are the 51st State, adding "They are considering the offer!".
• Looking ahead, US Richmond Fed Index, FOMC Minutes, OPEC+/JMMC, Speakers including BoE’s Pill, Supply from the US, Earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce, Abercrombie & Macy's.

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• APAC stocks mostly higher following the Wall St. strength, futures since off best awaiting NVIDIA earnings
• US President Trump says Canada joining the Golden Dome is free if they are the 51st State, adding "They are considering the offer!"
• DXY continues to pick up, EUR/USD tests 1.13 to the downside & Cable lost 1.35, JPY choppy
• RBNZ cut as expected, but refrained from overtly dovish language
• JGBs came under pressure after a somewhat mixed 40yr auction, USTs & EGBs also soft
• Crude marginally firmer ahead of OPEC, gold indecisive, base peers lacklustre
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Unemployment Rate, ECB SCE, US Richmond Fed Index, FOMC Minutes, OPEC+/JMMC, Speakers including Fed’s Williams, Kashkari & BoE’s Pill, Supply from UK, Germany & US, Earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce, Abercrombie & Macy's.
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• APAC stocks traded with a mild positive bias as the region mostly shrugged off the lacklustre lead from Wall St.
• US House Speaker Johnson said a Thursday tax bill floor vote is still realistic.
• European equity futures indicate a quiet cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday.
• DXY is extending its losing streak for a third session, EUR/USD is back above 1.13, Cable sits above 1.34 ahead of UK CPI.
• Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to CNN; not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision.
• Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, G7 Central Bank and Finance Ministers Meeting, ECB's Lagarde, Lane, Nagel & Cipollone, Fed's Barkin & Bowman, Supply from UK, Germany & US.

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• European bourses are modestly firmer whilst US equity futures sit in negative territory.
• USD remains out of favour, AUD weighed on after the RBA delivered a 25bps cut (as expected) and amid discussion of a 50bps cut.
• JGBs briefly hit by a poor auction, fixed recovery continues into numerous Fed speakers.
• Crude choppy on mixed geopolitics regarding Russia/Ukraine and Iranian nuclear talks.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said "I don't think nuclear talks with the US will be successful", via Mehr news.
• Looking ahead, Canadian Inflation, NZ Trade, G7 Finance Ministers Meeting, ECB's Cipollone, Nagel, Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Daly & Hammack. Earnings from Home Depot & Bilibili.

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• APAC stocks were marginally higher as the region took impetus from the rebound stateside; S&P 500 and Dow notched six-day win streaks
• European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.5% after the cash market closed flat on Monday.
• FX markets are broadly steady. AUD lags after the RBA delivered a 25bps cut and cut its inflation outlook.
• US President Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine are to immediately begin negotiations on a ceasefire and an end to the war.
• US House Speaker Johnson said they are almost there on the tax bill and he is very confident they will get it done.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Producer Prices, Canadian Inflation, EZ Consumer Confidence, NZ Trade, G7 Finance Ministers Meeting, RBA’s Bullock, BoE's Pill, ECB's Cipollone, Nagel, Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Daly & Hammack, Supply from Germany.

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• Moody’s lowered the US’s sovereign rating from AAA to Aa1; Outlook Revised to Stable from Negative and warned of rising government debt and a widening budget deficit.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said countries will get a letter with a US tariff rate if they are not negotiating in good faith and he thinks that rate would be the April 2nd level.
• The House Budget Committee approved President Trump's tax cut bill to set up a possible vote as soon as this week.
• European bourses lower and US equity futures slip in an initial reaction to the latest Moody’s downgrade; ES -1.2%.
• USD shunned as Moody's downgrade spooks markets, GBP cheers UK-EU "reset" deal.
• Moody start for bonds after the US downgrade, Gilts lag on Brexit updates and into 30yr syndication.
• Downbeat trade across oil contracts but precious metals lifted; spot gold eyes USD 3,250/oz.
• Looking ahead, US Leading Index Change, EU-UK Talks, Speakers including Fed’s Bostic, Williams, Logan & Kashkari. Holiday Closure in Canada.

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• APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the US sovereign rating downgrade by Moody's which spurred a mild 'sell America' impulse (ES -1.1%).
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said countries will get a letter with a US tariff rate if they are not negotiating in good faith and he thinks that rate would be the April 2nd level.
• The House Budget Committee approved President Trump's tax cut bill to set up a possible vote as soon as this week.
• Chinese Industrial Production topped forecasts, Retail Sales disappointed, House Prices continued to contract Y/Y.
• USD is slightly softer vs. peers, EUR/USD stalled just shy of 1.12, Cable sits around the 1.33 mark, JPY marginally outperforms peers.
• UK and the EU are expected to agree on Monday to a major post-Brexit reconciliation, according to the FT.
• US President Trump said he will speak with Russian President Putin on Monday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Leading Index Change, EU-UK Talks, Speakers including Fed’s Bostic, Williams, Logan & Kashkari, Supply from the EU.

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• Stocks are broadly in positive territory; US equity futures are modestly higher ES +0.3%.
• USD on the backfoot but only marginally so, EUR & GBP pivot 1.12 & 1.33 vs the USD.
• Bonds are firmer but are currently set to end a tumultuous week back where they started.
• Crude is awaiting geopolitical updates from numerous regions/conflicts, XAU dips.
• Looking ahead, US Export/Import Prices, UoM Sentiment Survey, BoC SLOS, Speakers including ECB’s Lane, Cipollone & Fed’s Barkin.
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• Mixed APAC trade, US futures range bound while European futures point to a marginally firmer open.
• DXY remains lower after Thursday's data, EUR/USD marginally reclaimed 1.12, USD/JPY found support at 145.00.
• Fixed benchmarks extended/held on to recent gains.
• Crude benchmarks remain underpinned by the latest on US-Iran, metals marginally softer.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Import Prices, UoM Sentiment Survey, BoC SLOS, Speakers including ECB’s Lane, Cipollone & Fed’s Barkin.
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• European equities are subdued awaiting US data and Fed Chair Powell; US equity futures also tilt lower (ES -0.6%).
• DXY is subdued and contained whilst havens seen some inflows amid the broader risk tone.
• Fixed income benchmarks trade slightly firmer into US data and Fed Chair Powell's speech. 
• Crude futures are curtailed by Trump suggesting the US is getting close to a deal with Iran, while metals await data & Powell.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, PPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, IEA OMR, Speakers include ECBʼs de Guindos; Fed Chair Powell & Barr, BoEʼs Dhingra. Earnings from Applied Materials, Take-Two, Alibaba, Walmart, Deere.

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• APAC stocks were predominantly lower following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher.
• US equity futures were lacklustre with participants awaiting comments from Fed Chair Powell and a slew of US data releases.
• European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.2% on Wednesday.
• Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons, as well as getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, according to a top advisor to the Supreme Leader cited by NBC News.
• Russian President Putin was not on a list of negotiators the Kremlin published for talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price Index, UK GDP, EZ Employment & GDP, US NY Fed Manufacturing, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, PPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, IEA OMR, Speakers include ECB’s Cipollone, Elderson & de Guindos, Fed Chair Powell & Barr, BoE’s Dhingra, Supply from US.
• Earnings from Applied Materials, Take-Two, Alibaba, Walmart, Deere, Deutsche Telekom, Siemens, Allianz, Merck, Thyssenkrupp, RWE, Siemens, National Grid, United Utilities & Richemont.

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• White House economic adviser Hassett says the administration has more than 20-25 deals on the table and when President Trump returns, he will announce the next deal, according to a Fox interview.
• Stocks opened mixed but now hold a downward bias as the risk tone dips; US futures flat/modestly lower.
• DXY is hit and makes a fresh WTD low, JPY leads.
• Bonds hold an upward bias as risk appetite deteriorates, Bunds see modest upside on a well-received German auction.
• Crude clipped as Trump speaks in Saudi, commodities fail to benefit from USD downside.
• Looking ahead, OPEC MOMR Speakers including ECB’s Cipollone, Fed’s Jefferson & Daly. Earnings from Cisco Systems, CoreWeave.

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• The EU set to focus on critical sectors in a bid to avoid US tariffs, according to Bloomberg sources.
• Stocks in the green and generally at session highs; NQ +1.7%.
• USD attempts to atone for recent losses, JPY weighed on by a pullback in domestic yields.
• Bonds bid and yields slump on MOF sources, Gilts outperform on this & reports that the UK will be shifting to shorter-term borrowing in order to lower its interest bill.
• Crude uneventful ahead of OPEC+ whilst precious and base metals slip.
• Looking ahead, US Durable Goods & Consumer Confidence, NBH Policy Announcement, Supply from the US, Earnings from AutoZone.

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• White House economic adviser Hassett said the administration has more than 20-25 deals on the table with deals close to being finalised and when President Trump returns, he will announce the next deal, according to a Fox interview.
• US President Trump said his relationship with China is good and he could see himself dealing with Chinese President Xi on a deal, according to a Fox News interview.
• US President Trump said the market will go higher and it is amazing what a climbing market will do.
• APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed but with the region predominantly in the green following the momentum from the constructive performance on Wall St.
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.4% on Tuesday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German/Spanish CPI (Final), OPEC MOMR, Speakers include BoE’s Breeden, ECB’s Cipollone, Fed’s Waller, Jefferson & Daly, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Cisco Systems, CoreWeave, Alcon, Imperial Brands, Burberry, Daimler Truck, Brenntag & Por.

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• White House Executive Order said US will cut the minimum tariff on China shipments from 120% to 54%, and a minimum flat fee of USD 100 is to remain.
• European bourses are modestly firmer while US futures dip into the red. Focus this morning has been on Bloomberg reporting, which suggests China is to lift its ban on Boeing deliveries after the US-China tariff pause.
• DXY takes a breather to the benefit of other G10s; Antipodeans lead.
• EGBs and Gilts hit marginal new WTD lows, USTs await CPI & Trump.
• A subdued Dollar provides some modest strength for XAU/base metals.
• Looking ahead, US CPI, Speakers including BoE’s Bailey & ECB’s Rehn.

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• APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the rally on Wall St owing to the US-China trade war de-escalation after both sides agreed to cut tariffs by 115ppts for an initial period of 90 days, although some of the gains were capped as the euphoria began to moderate.
• White House Executive Order said US will cut the minimum tariff on China shipments from 120% to 54%, and a minimum flat fee of USD 100 is to remain.
• DXY took a breather and gave back some of yesterday's firm gains; 10yr UST futures traded rangebound after recently suffering from a lack of haven appeal
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 1.6% on Monday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs, German ZEW, US CPI, Speakers include US President Trump, BoE’s Pill, Bailey & ECB’s Rehn, Supply from Netherlands, UK, Italy & Germany, Earnings from JD.Com, Intuitive Machines, On, Munich Re, Hannover Re, Bayer, K+S, Leg, Ferrovial & A2A.

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• US and China agree to bring down reciprocal tariffs by 115ppts for 90 days, sparking immediate risk on price action; DXY, ES, Crude bid; XAU & Fixed hit.
• US President Trump said he will sign an executive order on Monday at 09:00EDT with prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices to be reduced almost immediately by 30%-80% and the US is to pay the same price as the nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the world."
• Ukraine and European leaders said they agreed to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire on sea, land and air starting on May 12th and peace negotiations will start in that period if there is a ceasefire, while they said if Russia fails to comply, they will respond with massive sanctions and increased military aid.
• Stocks surge on US-Sino joint announcement, but pharmaceuticals hit by Trump.
• DXY and CNY surge on US-China trade; haven assets such as Bonds/JPY are in the red.
• Industrial commodities boosted by US-China updates; Spot gold slumps amid haven outflow
• Looking ahead, US Federal Budget, Speakers including BoE’s Greene, Mann, Taylor & Fed’s Kugler.

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• US President Trump said there was a very good meeting with China on Saturday, and many things were discussed and much agreed to, while he stated a total reset was negotiated in a friendly but constructive manner.
• USTR Greer said differences are not as great as previously thought, and Treasury Secretary Bessent said he looks forward to sharing details on Monday morning.
• Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said trade talks were constructive, and they made substantive progress, while both sides reached an important consensus and agreed to establish a China-US trade consultation mechanism with a joint statement to be issued on May 12th.
• US President Tump said he will sign an executive order on Monday at 09:00EDT with prescription drug and pharmaceutical prices to be reduced almost immediately by 30%-80% and the US is to pay the same price as the nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the world."
• Ukraine and European leaders said they agreed to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire on sea, land and air starting on May 12th and peace negotiations will start in that period if there is a ceasefire, while they said if Russia fails to comply, they will respond with massive sanctions and increased military aid.
• APAC stocks began the week with mild gains amid hopes related to a US-China trade deal after substantive progress was said to have been made during talks in Switzerland over the weekend, but with gains capped given a lack of details announced so far and with the sides to provide a joint statement later today.
• US equity futures gapped higher; European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.9% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.4% on Friday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Federal Budget, Speakers including ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Lombardelli, Greene, Mann, Taylor & Fed’s Kugler, Earnings from Grifols, Almirall & Evonik.

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• APAC stocks traded mixed with price action contained amid a lack of major fresh catalysts and in the absence of a lead from Wall St.
• European equity futures indicate a slightly softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 1.3% on Monday.
• DXY is back above 99.00 and attempting to claw back yesterday's downside, EUR/USD is back on a 1.13 handle.
• US President Trump is said to be eyeing sanctions against Moscow this week, according to the WSJ.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK, EZ Sentiment, French CPI, US Durable Goods & Consumer Confidence, NBH Policy. Announcement, ECB’s Villeroy & Fed’s Kashkari, Supply from Netherlands, Italy & US.

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• US President Trump announced a delay to the 50% tariff deadline on EU goods to July 9th.
• APAC stocks traded mixed as the initial uplift following Trump's announcement gradually waned.
• European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.6% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.8% on Friday.
• DXY has started the week on the backfoot and has slipped below the 99 mark, EUR/USD is on a 1.14 handle, antipodeans outperform.
• Trump called Russian President Putin "crazy" after Russia launched the largest air attack on Ukraine in the war so far despite the sides conducting a three-day prisoner swap.
• Looking ahead, the only notable highlight on the calendar is ECB's Lagarde. UK & US markets are closed.
• The desk will run to 18:00BST/13:00EDT on Monday 26th May, at which point the service will close due to holiday closures. The service will then re-open later that evening at 22:00BST for the beginning of the Asia-Pacific session.

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• US President Trump is pushing the EU to cut tariffs or face extra duties with US negotiators to tell Brussels they expect unilateral concessions, according to FT.
• European and US equity futures are trading mixed and generally reside on either side of the unchanged mark.
• USD shunned once again after Thursday’s attempted bounce; JPY benefits from hot core inflation data overnight; GBP little moved to firmer-than-expected Retail Sales.
• Bonds are higher as USTs look to claw back recent losses; some downside in Bunds following German GDP but proved fleeting.
• Crude remains subdued whilst metals benefit from the softer Dollar ahead of US-Iran talks at 12:00 BST / 07:00 EDT.
• Looking ahead, Canadian Retail Sales, Speakers including ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Musalem & Cook.

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• APAC stocks were mostly in the green albeit with gains in the region capped following the indecisive performance stateside.
• US President Trump and Chinese President Xi have not spoken since the Geneva agreement, according to CNN.
• US President Trump is pushing the EU to cut tariffs or face extra duties with US negotiators to tell Brussels they expect unilateral concessions, according to FT.
• European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.6% on Thursday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German GDP, UK Retail Sales, EZ Negotiated Wage Rates, Canadian Retail Sales, Speakers including ECB’s Lane & Schnabel, BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Musalem & Cook.

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• US President Trump's Tax/Spending bill is currently being debated in the US House (passed the Rules Committee overnight), the debate has formally hit the two-hour minimum as of the time of publication; vote time TBC.
• European stocks trade lower following the Wall Street and APAC losses; US equity futures attempt to recover recent losses.
• USD mixed vs. peers, EUR and GBP digest PMI metrics, JPY narrowly leads.
• USTs a little firmer finding some reprieve following 20yr weakness, Bunds choppy following EZ PMIs.
• Crude pressured amid reports of further OPEC+ output hikes, Spot gold a little lower.
• Bitcoin extended on gains and printed a fresh all-time high of above the USD 111k level; Texas House approved the bill to create a Bitcoin reserve.
• Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, Jobless Claims, Canadian Producer Prices, NZ Retail Sales, ECB Minutes. Speakers including RBA’s Hauser, BoE’s Breeden, Dhingra & Pill, ECB’s Elderson & de Guindos, BoC’s Gravelle, Fed’s Barkin & Williams, Supply from the US.

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• APAC stocks were on the back foot following the sell-off on Wall St where stocks, treasuries and the dollar were pressured amid deficit concerns and a weak 20-year auction.
• US President Trump said he was feeling very good about the bill in Congress; US House Speaker Johnson said on Wednesday that they were yet to decide on a vote on the tax bill that night or on Thursday but added that the Trump tax bill is moving forward.
• Bitcoin extended on gains and printed a fresh all-time high of above the USD 111k level; Texas House approved the bill to create a Bitcoin reserve.
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.8% after the cash market closed flat on Wednesday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, German Ifo, US Jobless Claims, Canadian Producer Prices, NZ Retail Sales, ECB Minutes, Speakers including RBA’s Hauser, BoE’s Breeden, Dhingra & Pill, ECB’s Elderson & de Guindos, BoC’s Gravelle, Fed’s Barkin & Williams, Supply from Spain, France & US.
• Earnings from BT, British Land, easyJet, QinetiQ, Tate & Lyle, ConvaTec, Intertek, Generali, PKN Orlen, Allegro, Julius Baer, Galenica, Autodesk, Ross & Analog Devices.

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• US House Speaker Johnson said a Thursday tax bill floor vote is still realistic.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said US measures on China's advanced chips are typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism.
• Europe opened mostly lower but now trade mixed, US equity futures are in the red.
• USD remains out of love, GBP digests hot CPI data, EUR/USD back above 1.13.
• Bearish bias in play, Gilts lag after hot CPI, USTs await fiscal updates.
• Energy and gold boosted by reports Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
• Looking ahead, G7 Central Bank and Finance Ministers Meeting, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, Lane, Nagel & Cipollone, Fed's Barkin & Bowman, Supply from the US, Earnings from Snowflake, Zoom, Target, TJX, VF Corp & Medtronic.

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