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Tariffs are supposed to be a cost businesses can calculate. But with US trade policy changing rapidly, the bigger challenge for exporters and importers may be knowing which tariff will actually apply when goods arrive.

In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to explore the economic impact of tariff uncertainty and what it means for businesses making cross-border investment and sourcing decisions.

The conversation then turns to another major challenge for Europe: the growing impact of Chinese industrial overcapacity, increasingly described by economists as “China shock 2.0”. As Chinese exports move further up the value chain, the panel considers whether Europe faces not simply a trade challenge, but the potential hollowing-out of its industrial ecosystem.

5 key takeaways

1. Tariff uncertainty can be as damaging as tariffs themselves

Businesses are accustomed to dealing with tariffs. The problem is that the rules are now changing so quickly that companies may struggle to know what their costs will be when goods actually arrive.

An order can be negotiated today, placed next week, shipped a month later and cleared through customs weeks after that. Knowing today’s tariff is therefore less useful if the rate could change before the transaction is completed.

2. The US tariff regime has become deliberately complex

More than 50 separate US tariff announcements were made during 2025, according to research discussed in the episode. Rates, exemptions and the rules governing them have continued to evolve.

Scott argues that the fluctuating communication around tariffs should not necessarily be viewed as accidental. Instead, uncertainty can provide negotiating leverage and give the US administration greater “optionality” when dealing with trading partners.

Legal challenges add another layer of uncertainty, with multiple cases contesting the basis for different US tariff measures.

3. Confusion can cause businesses to put trade decisions on hold

The economic impact of tariffs doesn’t necessarily require trade to stop altogether. If companies cannot confidently predict their costs, they may delay orders, postpone contracts or stick with existing suppliers rather than take a risk on a new trading relationship.

The impact may be particularly pronounced in more transactional markets, where suppliers can easily be substituted. Long-standing strategic supplier relationships may be more resilient because replacing them is harder.

4. China’s industrial capacity could become Europe’s next major trade challenge

Scott introduces the concept of the “grey rhino”: a high-probability, high-impact event that is visible in advance but insufficiently acted upon.

Aastha identifies China’s growing industrial capacity as one such threat. Weak domestic demand in China, combined with greater US protectionism, could encourage more Chinese exports towards open markets such as Europe.

And this isn’t limited to low-cost consumer goods. Chinese companies are increasingly competitive in areas including EVs, batteries, machinery, chemicals and sophisticated industrial equipment.

The concern is that sustained competition could eventually weaken the wider European manufacturing ecosystem, affecting suppliers, investment, skills and industrial know-how.

5. Europe faces a difficult balancing act between growth and resilience

Chinese competition does not affect every European country or company in the same way.

Manufacturers competing directly with Chinese products may see the situation as a threat, while companies using Chinese steel, batteries or other components may benefit from lower input costs.

That creates a difficult policy trade-off for the EU: maintaining access to Chinese investment and inexpensive inputs while reducing strategic dependencies.

The panel describes this shift as moving from “decoupling” to “de-risking” – not ending trade with China, but reducing vulnerabilities in strategically important areas.

What to watch in future:

Egypt and Ethiopia: Scott highlights renewed tensions over Ethiopia’s plans for additional dams on the Nile.

China’s oil inventories: Aastha is watching evidence that China’s crude imports may be softening after a period of significant stockpiling, including purchases from Russia.

Speakers:
Tim Phillips, Host
Aastha Gupta, European Economist, Economics & Market Strategy
Scott Livingstone, International Advisor

This episode was recorded on 19 August.

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Global trade is increasingly being shaped by geopolitics rather than economics alone. In this episode of Trade Links, host Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to examine two stories that illustrate this shift.

First, the panel explores the rise of the so-called shadow fleet – a network of vessels transporting sanctioned oil from countries including Russia, Iran and Venezuela. What began as a workaround to sanctions has evolved into a parallel shipping system that now carries a meaningful share of global crude exports. The discussion looks at how these networks operate, why they have proven so resilient, and what tougher enforcement by European governments could mean for global trade.

The conversation then turns to ASML, the Dutch company whose lithography machines sit at the heart of advanced semiconductor manufacturing. 

Following US concerns that one of ASML’s most sophisticated machines may have reached China, the panel discusses why these machines have become strategic geopolitical assets, how export controls are reshaping global technology markets, and why governments increasingly view supply chains as instruments of national power.

Together, the two stories highlight a common theme: the fragmentation of the global trading system, where commercial decisions are increasingly influenced by security, technology and geopolitical competition.

What to watch:

US trade policy: With several important deadlines approaching, the next phase of US tariff and trade policy could have significant implications for global commerce.

EU-China trade relations: European policymakers are increasingly debating how to respond to rising imports from China and the long-term competitiveness of European manufacturing, with important policy decisions expected later this year.


Speakers

Host: Tim Phillips
Guests: Aastha Gupta (European Economist)
Scott Livingstone (International Advisor)

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This episode was recorded on 17 July 2026.

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Since 2020, governments across the US, Europe and the UK have promoted re-shoring, near-shoring and friend-shoring as ways to strengthen supply chains, create jobs and reduce strategic dependence on China.
 
But how much of this shift is genuinely bringing industry home, and how much is simply reorganising global trade?
 
In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to separate the headlines from the underlying data.
 
In this episode:
 
Is re-shoring really happening?
 
Aastha explains how industrial policies such as the US CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act have channelled hundreds of billions of dollars into semiconductors, electric vehicles and clean technology.
 
However, the evidence suggests that the re-shoring story is more complicated than political messaging implies:
 
* Many supply chains remain heavily dependent on imported components.
* Production is often being rerouted through intermediary countries such as Vietnam and Mexico rather than returning home.
* New investment frequently represents additional capacity rather than relocation of existing manufacturing.
* Foreign firms are increasingly establishing local operations in Europe and North America.
 
The result is less a wholesale return of manufacturing and more a gradual reconfiguration of global supply chains.
 
The jobs question
 
Large investment announcements often promise tens of thousands of jobs, but the panel highlights an important distinction between construction employment and long-term operational jobs.
 
Capital-intensive sectors such as semiconductor fabrication, battery production and clean technology require enormous upfront investment but relatively modest permanent workforces.
 
The discussion asks whether today’s industrial policy is delivering broad-based reindustrialisation or simply targeted support for strategically important sectors.
 
Friend-shoring: Trading with trusted partners
 
Scott explores the rise of friend-shoring, where countries prioritise reliability, integrity and political dependability over lowest-cost suppliers.
 
Examples include:
 
* US–Vietnam trade ties
* Europe’s engagement with Saudi Arabia
* UK partnerships focused on critical minerals
 
The conversation examines how governments increasingly define “friends” through commercial resilience and strategic interests rather than shared political systems.
 
The costs of resilience
 
Re-shoring and friend-shoring may strengthen supply security, but they also come with trade-offs.
 
Economic costs include:
 
* Higher production costs
* Significant public subsidies
* Potential inflationary pressures
* Reduced efficiency from fragmented supply chains
 
Political challenges include:
 
* Greater fragmentation of the global trading system
* Managing increasingly transactional international relationships
* Questions over credibility when values-based foreign policy collides with commercial interests
 
US–China relations: Spin versus substance
 
The panel also revisits recent US–China engagement following President Trump’s visit to Beijing and ahead of a planned follow-up meeting in September.
 
Key questions include:
 
* Was the visit a diplomatic success for both sides?
* Did any meaningful structural agreements emerge?
* Could September bring progress on tariffs, rare earths or technology controls?
 
The panel concludes that recent engagement has largely focused on stabilising tensions rather than resolving fundamental disputes.
 
What to watch
 
Aastha’s radar: The growing use of “shadow fleets” transporting sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran is creating an increasingly opaque parallel trading system, raising questions about sanctions effectiveness and transparency in global commerce.
 
Scott’s radar: Military exercises around Taiwan and in the Baltic Sea this summer warrant close attention. Demonstrations of capability by Taiwan, China, NATO and Russia all carry the risk of misinterpretation and unintended escalation.
 
Speakers
 
Host: Tim Phillips
Guests: Aastha Gupta (European Economist)
Scott Livingstone (International Advisor)
 
Subscribe, leave a review, and join us for future episodes as we continue to unpack the world’s evolving trade landscape.
 
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This episode was recorded on 17 June 2026.

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What’s Next for UK Real Estate?

To close this season of Property Perspectives, we zoom out and look ahead. Richard Pickering, Foresight Director at Cushman & Wakefield, joins us to connect the dots across every real estate sector we’ve explored—from residential and industrial to retail and the office.

Alongside NatWest hosts Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman, Richard unpacks the megatrends shaping the built environment, including ageing populations, hybrid working, AI-driven supply chains, and the evolving role of cities.

Bringing together insights from across the series, this episode explores how UK real estate could fundamentally change over the next 10–20 years—and what that means for investors, occupiers, and communities.

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In this episode of Trade Links, host Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to revisit two major trade stories shaping the global economy: 10 years on from Brexit, and one year after the US “Liberation Day” tariff announcements.

The discussion explores how trade relationships have evolved, where economic frictions remain, and why geopolitics is increasingly influencing global commerce. 

1. UK–EU trade has stabilised, but at a lower level

• UK goods trade with the EU remains around 10–15% below its pre-Brexit trajectory in volume terms, even though trade values have recovered due to inflation and higher prices.
• Manufacturing sectors including automotive and chemicals continue to struggle, while food and agriculture recovered after an early shock but remain more volatile.
• UK services exports have stayed resilient overall, largely thanks to growth in non-EU markets such as the US, masking weaker EU performance.

2. Non-tariff barriers remain the biggest drag on trade

• Although Brexit avoided tariffs, businesses continue to face customs paperwork, rules-of-origin requirements, and border checks.
• These non-tariff barriers are estimated to create costs equivalent to 7–10% tariffs on goods trade.
• Smaller exporters have been disproportionately affected, with some firms deciding exporting to the EU is no longer commercially worthwhile.

3. Political and economic pressures are encouraging closer alignment

• The UK and EU are increasingly pursuing pragmatic cooperation in areas such as energy, customs data sharing, food standards, and youth mobility.
• Sectors including agri-food, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and electric vehicles could benefit significantly from regulatory alignment.
• Broader geopolitical pressures — including Russia’s aggression and uncertainty around US policy toward Europe — are creating incentives for deeper UK–EU cooperation without full reintegration.

1. The tariffs were dramatic politically, but economically less effective

• US headline tariff rates jumped from roughly 2.5% to over 20%, levels not seen for more than a century.
• In practice, exemptions, carve-outs, and negotiations reduced the effective tariff burden closer to around 10%.
• Despite the scale of the announcements, the US goods trade deficit widened rather than narrowed over the following year.

2. Tariffs changed behaviour more than outcomes

• Companies accelerated imports ahead of tariff implementation before reducing volumes once measures took effect.
• Firms adapted supply chains through rerouting, exemptions, and alternative sourcing strategies.
• Businesses increasingly shifted from “just-in-time” supply chains to “just-in-case” inventory models, embedding higher costs into global trade.

3. Trade has become a geopolitical weapon

• Countries responded with bilateral negotiations, retaliatory tariffs, supply-chain diversification, and efforts to avoid provoking Washington.
• China’s restrictions on rare earth exports highlighted the strategic importance of trade choke points and critical supply chains.
• The panel argues that the world is entering a more fragmented era of globalisation, where resilience and geopolitical alignment increasingly matter more than pure economic efficiency.

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What’s shaping the UK’s residential property market as conditions continue to shift?

In this episode of Property Perspectives, Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman are joined by Lucian Cook, Head of Residential Research at Savills, to unpack a residential market characterised by uncertainty and competing pressures. With interest rates higher for longer, mortgage availability tightening and build costs continuing to rise, they explore what this means for house prices, transaction volumes and affordability.

The conversation also examines regional disparities, demographic challenges and the impact of the Renters Rights Act on landlords, tenants and investors, offering a grounded, research‑led perspective on the forces reshaping UK residential real estate — and what to watch as the market adjusts.

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How has the industrial sector evolved into one of the UK’s most resilient and in‑demand real estate asset classes?

In this episode, Newmark’s Steve Sharman and Seb Moseley join NatWest hosts Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman to explore what’s driving industrial today. From automation and power requirements to supply, tenant demand and long‑term structural trends, they discuss why industrial has proven so resilient — and what that means for investors, developers and occupiers looking ahead.

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How are office markets evolving across the UK — and what’s really driving rents, demand and regional divergence? 

In this episode, JLL’s John Woodger and James Devany join hosts Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman to cut through the noise. They compare trends across London and key regional cities, explore shifting occupier expectations, and reveal what these changes mean for the future of UK offices.

NB. This was recorded on 27 January 2026. 

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In this episode, Allan Lockhart, Chief Executive of New River, REIT, joins NatWest hosts Ashley Toy and Tom Sharman to unpack the major forces reshaping the retail real estate landscape.

NB. This was recorded on 27 January 2026. 

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In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips is joined again by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to explore an unprecedented scenario in global trade: what happens when both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are compromised at the same time? With escalating tensions in the Middle East and warnings from the Houthi movement, the team considers the far-reaching consequences for energy, food security and global supply chains.

 They also talk about Donald Trump’s delayed China trip, and how energy security and supply chain resilience will likely overshadow traditional trade topics like tariffs and soybeans.

Lastly, they ask the dreaded question: What’s on the Trade Links radar?

Clue: fertiliser shortages impacting Brazil and India, potential pressure on Cuba from the US, and rising tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

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This episode was recorded on 19 March 2026.

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In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to unpack the political and economic forces shaping global trade deals and the evolving role of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Key Topics:

• India’s Trade Deal Blitz: Comparing India’s agreements with the EU, UK, and US – from comprehensive free trade deals to targeted strategic partnerships.
• Politics vs. Economics: How deals are increasingly shaped by geopolitics, including the impact of US tariffs and India’s Russian oil imports.
• WTO at a Crossroads: Assessing the organisation’s diminished influence, its historical contribution to global trade, and what a “minimum viable” WTO could look like in a fragmented trade landscape.
• The Rise of Trade Clubs: Emergence of mini-lateral agreements and managed trade arrangements replacing the old multi-lateral structure.
• What’s Next: Integration opportunities for India, supply chain diversification for Western economies, and the potential shift in defence and geopolitical alignments.

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As Trade Links returns in 2026, host Tim Phillips is joined by our regular panel of experts, Aastha Gupta (European Economist, Economics and Market Strategy) and Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) to talk trade and the international backdrop. 

It’s been a dramatic start to the year, so naturally the discussion focuses on US intervention in Venezuela and that most perennial of trade topics… oil. What are the impacts on the region immediately, and longer term?

The discussion then turns towards sanctions, and their efficacy in a highly interconnected world – looking at Russia, Iran and South Africa as examples. Can supply chains become sanction proof?

Lastly, the panel shares developments that the world may have overlooked, at the time of recording. Since then, of course, everything might have changed.  

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This episode was recorded on 22 January 2026.

President Trump quoted from press conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPpd8AJwGlY

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In this Trade Links special, host Tim Phillips is joined by guests Aastha Gupta, Scott Livingstone and Ross Walker to talk about what lies ahead in 2026. 

There's a lot to ponder as global trade tilts towards resilience away from cost efficiency in supply chains, and geopolitically, the world is rearming at pace. So it's good news that the economy is so rosy. Well, maybe not.

With topics ranging from national technology competition and rare earths to protectionism and import price inflation, trade in 2026 really is a case of everything, everywhere, all at once. Luckily, the Trade Links panel knows where to look next.

To access all the content from our Year Ahead 2026 report, visit natwest.com/yearahead 

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events shaping how the world trades.

This episode was recorded on 12 November 2025.

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This time, host Tim Phillips is joined by regular guests Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to talk about the world's most vital trade routes – from what goes through them to what happens around them. 

They also discuss potential new trade routes and which countries may lay claim to them, as well as discuss that age old question: what issues are being overlooked, but which might be on all of our lips by the time of the next episode?

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This episode was recorded on 1 October 2025.

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In this episode of Trade Links, Tim Phillips reunites with regular NatWest panelists Aastha Gupta, European Economist, and Scott Livingstone, International Advisor. They delve into the recent EU-US trade deal, announced at Turnberry Golf Course on 27 July 2025, exploring its implications on global economics, geopolitics, and sector-specific impacts.

Key points:

The deal: Aastha explains the framework agreement, including a 15% tariff ceiling on key EU exports and a €750bn EU commitment to US energy products.

Winners and losers: Insights into sector-specific impacts, such as benefits to US energy and EU automotive industries, and challenges for EU steel and agriculture.

Geopolitical Analysis: Scott explores the strategic motivations behind the deal and its influence on EU-US relations.

Economic impact: Estimations of the deal’s effect on EU’s GDP growth and trade elasticity.

Future uncertainties: Pending issues around digital economy regulations, defence spending, and EU-China-US dynamics.

And... With the Sibos payments and trade conference nearly upon us, Tim chats with Lee McNab, NatWest's Head of Group Payments Strategy. They discuss the future of global payments, the role of stablecoins, blockchain and AI in reducing trade friction, and the interplay of regulation and innovation.

This episode was recorded on 27 August.

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While Aastha and Scott are on their much-deserved summer breaks, Tim Phillips speaks to Naresh Aggarwal (Associate Director Policy & Technical at the Association of Corporate Treasurers) and Rowan Austin (Head of Trade Finance Origination & Advisory at NatWest) in this special episode. 

Both treasury and trade finance functions are on the front line of balancing risk management and growth. Get it wrong and you're facing funding shortfalls, regulatory breaches, delayed shipments and unexpected losses. So, how do we get it right? And what risks should we be looking ahead to in the near to medium-term.

Our guests share their views, as well as make some predictions for what businesses might be overlooking. 

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This episode was recorded on 31 July 2025. 

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This month, Tim Phillips is joined by regular guests Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to delve into the intricacies of the global tech trade. They unravel the complexities of supply chains, the strategic importance of rare earth elements, and the geopolitical tensions shaping today’s trade landscape.

Semiconductors may be the new oil, but what about the old oil? They also talk about OPEC, peak oil demand and revenue, and the status of petrodollars presently and in the years to come. 

Lastly, the mix of good and bad: what to make of Middle East politics and the potential for further trade tussles?

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This episode was recorded on 1 July 2025.

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Tim Phillips returns with regular NatWest guests Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to talk trade. This time, they focus on the super big questions: how is the very nature of trade evolving and whether the era of globalisation is nearing an end?

They also discuss:

• Trade Patterns: Trade volumes, particularly in services and digital trade, are still increasing, but supply chains are becoming more regional and complex.

• Regional trade blocs: How the world is shifting from a single regime to a multi-polar, bloc-based system influenced by political alignment and strategic interests.

• Security concerns and the weather in Helsinki.

• Plus, what wrong-footed them last-time: the free trade agreement signed between the UK and India.

To read Aastha's latest Trade Tracker, click here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/finance/trade-tracker-uk-trade-deals-in-focus.html

 This episode was recorded on 2 June 2025

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Welcome to Trade Links, your go-to podcast for data-driven analysis of global trade trends and pivotal developments in international relations. Designed for international businesses looking to navigate the complexities of the global market, Trade Links brings you expert commentary, in-depth discussions, and the latest updates that shape the world of trade. 

Each month, host Tim Phillips will be joined by NatWest's Aastha Gupta (European Economist) and Scott Livingstone (International Adviser) to discuss different topics relevant to international trade. 

Details accurate at the time of recording (6 May 2025).

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The latest trends and sustainability innovations in the world of commercial real estate.

What does it take to build a zero-carbon ready residential development?

In this episode, NatWest’s Ashley Toy is joined by Stephen Andrew, Group Technical Director at Taylor Wimpey, to explore the methods, materials, and technologies powering a pioneering zero-carbon ready home. From early planning challenges through to design and development, they explore what it really takes to deliver sustainable homes at scale.

NB. This was recorded on 13 February 2025. 

Get more tips, tools, and strategies to help navigate your sustainability journey today: 

• Unlocking value in commercial real estate: strategies to decarbonise for growth 
• Case Study: How Robertson Group is seizing new opportunities through retrofitting 
• Case Study: How Barwood Capital is leveraging sustainability for long-term success 
• Carbon Planner: sign up to measure your carbon footprint and explore how your business could potentially reduce emissions 
• Retrofit training progress: support to help you make your premises more energy efficient 

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In this episode, Ashley Toy is joined by Tyrone Hodge, Global Head of Risk Advisory at JLL Inc., and Ken Mustafa, Director of Vertical Sunrooms Ltd., to explore the impact of sustainability on commercial property values. 

They discuss how green building practices influence valuations, the risks of neglecting upgrades, and the competitive advantages of investing in sustainable improvements. 

NB. This was recorded on 13 February 2025. 

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Get more tips, tools, and strategies to help navigate your sustainability journey today: 

• Unlocking value in commercial real estate: strategies to decarbonise for growth 
• Case Study: How Robertson Group is seizing new opportunities through retrofitting 
• Case Study: How Barwood Capital is leveraging sustainability for long-term success 
• Carbon Planner: sign up to measure your carbon footprint and explore how your business could potentially reduce emissions 
• Retrofit training progress: support to help you make your premises more energy efficient 

All details correct at time of recording.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

The latest trends and sustainability innovations in the world of commercial real estate.

In this episode, our host Ashley Toy sits down with Laura Beaumont, Head of Sustainability at Helical PLC, a leading office developer in central London. Together, they dive into the challenges of retrofitting large commercial properties and the strategies shaping their approach – with a  particular focus on Helical’s 100 New Bridge Street, London development.

NB. This was recorded on 13 February 2025.

Get more tips, tools, and strategies to help navigate your sustainability journey today:

• Unlocking value in commercial real estate: strategies to decarbonise for growth
• Case Study: How Robertson Group is seizing new opportunities through retrofitting
• Case Study: How Barwood Capital is leveraging sustainability for long-term success
• Carbon Planner: sign up to measure your carbon footprint and explore how your business could potentially reduce emissions
• Retrofit training progress: support to help you make your premises more energy efficient

All details correct at time of recording.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

The latest trends and sustainability innovations in the world of commercial real estate.

Housing associations play a crucial role providing homes and support for millions of people in need across the UK. But, as not-for-profits operating what are often older dwellings, many must overcome big hurdles turning their low-carbon ambitions into reality.

In this episode, NatWest’s Ashley Toy and Paul Eyre are joined by Clare Miller, CEO of Clarion Housing Group for an in-depth look at their retrofit experience. Facing challenges such as lack of finance, and resident disruption when undergoing renovations, you’ll learn more about how effective planning and innovative solutions can result in successful long-terms outcomes. 

NB. This was recorded on 20 February 2025.

Get more tips, tools, and strategies to help navigate your sustainability journey today:

• Unlocking value in commercial real estate: strategies to decarbonise for growth
• Case Study: How Robertson Group is seizing new opportunities through retrofitting
• Case Study: How Barwood Capital is leveraging sustainability for long-term success
• Carbon Planner: sign up to measure your carbon footprint and explore how your business could potentially reduce emissions
• Retrofit training progress: support to help you make your premises more energy efficient

All details correct at time of recording.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

The latest trends and sustainability innovations in the world of commercial real estate.

Why is sustainability so crucial for the UK real estate sector? In this episode, NatWest’s Ashley Toy is joined by Rob Wall, Assistant Director at the British Property Federation and Emma Harvey-Smith, Chief of Staff at the Green Finance Institute for a deep dive into the big forces pushing sustainability higher up the agenda. They discuss the impact of post-pandemic demand shifts, the role of technology and regulation – and more. 

In this episode of the Property Perspectives podcast, NatWest’s Ashley Toy is joined by Rob Wall, Assistant Director at the British Property Federation and Emma Harvey-Smith, Chief of Staff at the Green Finance Institute for a deep dive into the big forces pushing sustainability higher up the agenda in the real estate sector. Listen today.

NB. This was recorded on 13 February 2025.

Get more tips, tools, and strategies to help navigate your sustainability journey today:

• Unlocking value in commercial real estate: strategies to decarbonise for growth
• Case Study: How Robertson Group is seizing new opportunities through retrofitting
• Case Study: How Barwood Capital is leveraging sustainability for long-term success
• Carbon Planner: sign up to measure your carbon footprint and explore how your business could potentially reduce emissions
• Retrofit training progress: support to help you make your premises more energy efficient

All details correct at time of recording.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this special edition of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Joann Spadigam to discuss some key themes from our Year Ahead 2025 report, an in-depth guide to what will be shaping economies and markets over the coming 12 months. Following a year of change at the ballot box, new governments have made political promises and fiscal commitments, with increases to government debt on the horizon. How these decisions affect inflation and therefore terminal bank rates is an open-ish question… but the answer is not lower. Finally, they discuss the political backdrop going into 2025, and crucially, how markets are thinking about Trump 2.0. 

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.

NB. This episode was recorded on 21 November 2024

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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How might tensions, tariffs and Trump influence the trade backdrop for businesses? 
 
In this episode, Rowan Austin,  Head of Trade Origination & Advisory is joined by Aastha Gupta, European Economist; Brian Daingerfield, Head of G10 FX Strategy, Americas; and Scott Livingstone, International Advisor, for an in-depth look at the macro factors affecting global trade, the key geopolitical flashpoints to watch, and how businesses can get ahead of the major factors likely to affect supply chains in 2025. 

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.
  
NB: This was recorded at the Soho Hotel, London UK on 20 November 2024.  
 
For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  
https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html   
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It’s fair to say that 2024 should be known as “The Year of the Ballot Box”, with more than 50 elections having taken place worldwide. In some cases, we think the outcome of those elections could bring about big swings in the direction of policy in 2025.

What could that mean for markets and the economy? In this episode, journalist and podcaster Tim Phillips is joined by Ross Walker, Head of Global Economist and Chief UK Economist; Paul Robson, Head of G10 FX Strategy, EMEA; Joann Spadigam, European Rates Strategist; and Philippe Bradshaw, Head of Syndicate Portfolio and Risk Management Capital Markets, for a lively discussion around some of the big questions looming over the outlook: Are markets underestimating the inflationary impact of fiscal policy? Where will terminal rates land – and will relative rates continue to drive FX? And will fixed income investor appetite wane amidst still-high rates and a potential glut of sovereign bond supply?

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.

NB: This was recorded at Soho House, London UK on 20 November 2024.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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With so much change afoot across the global political landscape, where do we see global climate policy and ESG heading in 2025?

Arthur Krebbers, Head of Corporate Climate & ESG Capital Markets joins Vishal Saxena, Vice President – Climate and ESG Capital Markets, and Shubha Samalia, ESG Macro Strategist, for a closer look at the direction of travel of ESG and climate policy. They discuss how businesses should factor this shifting landscape into their sustainability strategies, and take stock of some of the new ESG innovations making waves in global markets.

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.

NB: This was recorded on 21 November 2024.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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In this special edition of The Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Paul Robson for a closer look at sterling and the US dollar as we head into 2025.

Where 2024 was characterised by political change, markets will examine the follow-on in 2025 – what higher fiscal commitments may do to inflation targets, bank rates and, ultimately, the relative performance of currencies. In the US, that means contending with Trump 2.0, while in the UK unprecedented fiscal commitments may help sterling’s current strength. Lastly they touch on how China-related risks might affect the fortunes of the Australian and NZ dollars, and whether the Canadian currency may diverge from the US dollar.

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.

NB: This was recorded on 21 November 2024. 

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html  

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We’re delighted to bring you episode three of our Women in Sustainability podcast series - the series designed to celebrate the social, economic, cultural, and political achievements of women working in the field of sustainability.

For this episode, our host Tonia Plakhotniuk, is joined by two more exceptional women:

• Nadia Humphreys, Bloomberg
• Clémence Humeau, AXA Investment Managers

To get future episodes as soon as they’re available, remember to hit ‘subscribe’, and if you found the content insightful click ‘like’ so it’s easier for others to find.

NB: This was recorded on 9 April 2024.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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We’re delighted to bring you episode two of our new Women in Sustainability podcast series. The series, designed to celebrate the social, economic, cultural, and political achievements of women working in the field of sustainability.

The second episode, facilitated by your host Tonia Plakhotniuk, includes two more exceptional women:

• Nadia Nikolova, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager in Developing Finance and Impact Credit, Allianz Global Investors
• Katherine Stodulka, Partner, SYSTEMIQ

To get future episodes as soon as they’re available, remember to hit ‘subscribe’, and if you found the content insightful click ‘like’ so it’s easier for others to find.

NB: This was recorded on 9 April 2024.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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With so much conflict happening around the world, what should businesses focus on? In this episode John Briggs and NatWest International Advisor Scott Livingstone analyse the conflict in Gaza and discuss the wider context of the Middle East. In a US election year, President Biden is facing pressure over other geopolitical issues, including from China and Ukraine. Finally, they predict what else may happen as we progress through 2024.      

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In celebration of International Women’s Day (IWD), we’re delighted to launch our new Women in Sustainability podcast series. The series, dedicated to women working in the field of sustainability, is inspired by the aims of IWD, to celebrate the social, economic, cultural, and political achievements of women.

In our first episode, Tonia Plakhotniuk interviews three exceptional women who work on advancing sustainability at NatWest:

• Caroline Haas, Head of Global Climate and ESG Capital Markets
• Dr Maria Carvalho, Head of Climate Economics and Data for NatWest Group
• Supriya Sobti, NatWest Group’s Climate and Purpose Lead

To get future episodes as soon as they’re available, remember to hit ‘subscribe’, and if you found the content insightful click ‘like’ so it’s easier for others to find. 

NB: This was recorded on 27 February 2024. 

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Geopolitical risk has risen sharply over the past year – and in recent months concerns have intensified around the prospect for further escalation across a range of geographies and dimensions. Our International Advisor and geopolitics expert Scott Livingstone, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy Brian Daingerfield, and Global Head of Global Head of Economics & Markets Strategy John Briggs discuss the recent conflict in Israel, the effects on trade of ongoing flashpoints, and whether new geopolitical tensions will arise in the year ahead.

Remember to hit follow so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024. 

NB: This was recorded on 1 November 2023. 
For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html 
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As we look ahead to a year marked by slow economic growth, lower rates and (hopefully) inflation, the path forward for companies is far from certain. Will lower interest rates spur more capital expenditure? Or, might firms wish to review their investment plans until the fortunes of the world economy are better known? Our Head of Debt & Financing Solutions Carla Floyd, Head of Global Economics Ross Walker, Head of Non-Dollar Rates Strategy Imogen Bachra, and Head of G10 FX Strategy EMEA Paul Robson paint a picture of the economic and market landscape to help businesses navigate the uncertainty in the year ahead.

Remember to hit follow so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024. 

NB: This was recorded on 10 November 2023. 
For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html 
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Please note that captions are automatically generated.

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The resilience of markets and financial institutions was tested at various times throughout 2023, raising concerns about the health of the global financial system. Will those concerns persist in the year ahead? Our Head of Primary Capital Markets James Tayler, Head of Non-Dollar Rates Strategy Imogen Bachra, and US Rates Strategist Jan Nevruzi discuss central bank strategies in the US, UK and Europe, and share their views on the potential implications for the banking sector and for fundraising in 2024.      
 
Remember to hit follow so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024. 

NB: This was recorded on 31 October 2023. 
For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html 
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How should businesses approach AI adoption? Should they build, buy, partner – or neither? Where should they start, and which verticals are the low hanging fruit?

In our second episode dedicated to the fascinating world of artificial intelligence, host John Briggs is joined by Shaun Johnson and Richard Socher, both partners at AIX Ventures, a seed stage venture capital firm partnering with AI startups and practitioners. They share their investment approach, what they look for in companies and technologies and, as investors in more than 50 businesses, how they think organisations should approach AI and how to truly harness it.

NB: This was recorded on 28 September 2023. 
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Tyler Mayzes spends 5 minutes reflecting on the key ESG themes that emerged from this year’s B20 summit, hosted in India.

For more on the key ESG trends shaping the market, be sure to check-out our September newsletter: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/sustainability/corporate-esg-monthly/sustainability-reporting-corporates-facing-csrd.html

To get the latest 5 in 5 episodes as soon as they’re available, remember to hit ‘subscribe’, and if you found the content useful click ‘like’ so it’s easier for others to find.

NB: This was recorded on 28 September 2023. 

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html?q=glossary&brand=NATWEST&section=corporates&enginekey=Qwsq9cprFbyz_uyU-zZZ

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Tonia Plakhotniuk spends 5 minutes reflecting on the official recommendation by the European Commission on Transition Finance, published over the summer.

To access our monthly Sustainable Finance Policy and Regulation Round-up, be sure to click the link: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/regulation/european-securities-market-supervisor-sets-expectations.html

To get the latest 5 in 5 episodes as soon as they’re available, remember to hit ‘subscribe’, and if you found the content useful click ‘like’ so it’s easier for others to find.

NB: This was recorded on 18 Sept 2023. 

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html?q=glossary&brand=NATWEST&section=corporates&enginekey=Qwsq9cprFbyz_uyU-zZZ

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Douglas Shuffman spends 5 minutes discussing the key insights from our Global Sustainable Fixed Income Investor Survey. The survey included 225 asset managers involved in making or executing fixed income investment decisions and implementing related ESG strategies.

To access the full survey, be sure to click the link: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/sustainability/climate-risks-and-opportunities.html

To get the latest 5 in 5 episodes as soon as they’re available, remember to hit ‘subscribe’, and if you found the content useful click ‘like’ so it’s easier for others to find.

NB: This was recorded on 15 Aug 2023. 

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Nick Bulloch spends 5 minutes reflecting on the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) new Supplier Engagement Guidance, and the key considerations for Corporates when incorporating Scope 3 into sustainable finance.

For more on the key ESG trends shaping the market, be sure to check-out our July newsletter:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/sustainability/corporate-esg-monthly/increasing-guidance-on-supply-chain-engagement-in-order-to-target-scope-3-emissions.html 

To get the latest 5 in 5 episodes as soon as they’re available, remember to hit ‘subscribe’, and if you found the content useful click ‘like’ so it’s easier for others to find. 

NB: This was recorded on 27 July 2023. 

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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Niceasia Mc Perry spends 5 minutes reflecting on the importance of social bonds, in the sustainability debt market, and why they should not be overlooked.

For more on the key ESG trends shaping the market, be sure to check-out our June newsletter: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/sustainability/corporate-esg-monthly/european-professional-investors-embrace-social-bonds.html

To get the latest 5 in 5 episodes as soon as they’re available, remember to hit ‘subscribe’, and if you found the content useful click ‘like’ so it’s easier for others to find. 

NB: This was recorded on 21 June 2023. 

Reference: ‘The first ever social bond in the US consumer auto-lending..’ statement, was taken from the following: https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/04/29/2432804/0/en/Tricolor-Issues-First-Ever-Social-Bond-in-U-S-Consumer-Auto-Lending-to-Empower-Mobility-in-Underserved-Hispanic-Communities.html

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In this episode of The Big Questions, John Briggs and NatWest's Director of Innovation & Partnerships, David Grunwald, take a closer look at the role Artificial Intelligence will play in reshaping society, the way we work, and the economy longer term. They discuss some of the ways that businesses can prepare for AI and reduce the risks these technologies can bring.

Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen our latest episodes as soon as they’re available.

NB: This was recorded on 23 June 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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Tyler Mayzes spends 5 minutes revisiting the EU’s ‘Fit for 55’ package. He talks talk through three key components: a carbon border tax; a carbon price for petrol and home heating; a just transition fund.

For more on the key ESG trends shaping the market, be sure to check-out our May newsletter: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/sustainability/corporate-esg-monthly/eu-parliament-adopts-key-laws-as-part-of-fit-for-55-package.html?q=slb&brand=NATWEST&section=corporates&enginekey=Qwsq9cprFbyz_uyU-zZZ

To get the latest 5 in 5 episodes as soon as they’re available, remember to hit ‘subscribe’, and if you found the content useful click ‘like’ so it’s easier for others to find. 

NB: This was recorded on 25 May 2023. 

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In this episode of The Big Questions, John Briggs and Kevin Cummins speak with legendary economist and investor Charles Gave, Founder of Gavekal Research, about recent strains in the banking sector and discuss the potential long-term repercussions for markets and the global economy. 

Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen our latest episodes as soon as they’re available.

NB: This was recorded on 25 April 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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In the lead up to the CHAPS ISO 20022 migration, we ask Ian Povey, COO Payments Services and Technology to share some of his thoughts on how we can prepare, and what lessons we’ve learnt from migrations so far.

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In this episode of the Treasury Tomorrow podcast, Nick Pedersen, NatWest Market's Global Head of Digital, joins payments expert Lee McNabb, digital capital markets specialist Phil Stewart, and NatWest treasury’s manager of liquidity portfolio management Oliver Butcher for a thought-provoking debate on how digital assets could transform treasury.

NB: This was recorded on 14 April 2023. 

For a copy of the Bank of England's discussion paper on the digital pound, click here: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/paper/2023/the-digital-pound-consultation-paper
For more information on the UK Jurisdiction Taskforce (UKJT) February 2023 statement on the legal treatment of digital assets under English private law, click here: https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=996fd584-ef06-4fd0-9b2d-c8c7b87144a2
For a copy of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech at the IIF conference in Washington, DC on 12 April, click here: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2023/april/andrew-bailey-remarks-at-the-institute-of-international-finance
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All details correct at time of recording.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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Giorgio Carlucci, ESG Advisory, takes you on a 5-minute journey across the Channel to reflect on the progress made by EU institutions in relation to Green Bond Standards and zero-emission vehicles.

For more on the key ESG trends shaping the market, be sure to check-out our March newsletter: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/sustainability/corporate-esg-monthly/esg-regulatory-developments-in-europe.html

To get the latest 5 in 5 episodes as soon as they’re available, remember to hit ‘subscribe’, and if you found the content useful click ‘like’ so it’s easier for others to find. 

NB: This was recorded on 21 March 2023. 

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For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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Roze Warren, Debt and Financing Solutions, spends 5-minutes reflecting on recent developments in ESG data, and how these are set to improve both its coverage and quality.

For more on the key ESG trends shaping the market, be sure to check-out our February newsletter:

https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/sustainability/corporate-esg-monthly/tackling-the-challenges-of-esg-data.html 

To get the latest 5 in 5 episodes as soon as they’re available, remember to hit ‘subscribe’, and if you found the content useful click ‘like’ so it’s easier for others to find. 

NB: This was recorded on 27 February 2023. 

For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html?q=glossary&brand=NATWEST&section=corporates&enginekey=Qwsq9cprFbyz_uyU-zZZ

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For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

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In this episode of The Big Questions, John Briggs and NatWest Group International Advisor Scott Livingstone reflect on a wide range of geopolitical flashpoints and the potential impact on the economy longer term. As we pass an inauspicious milestone, the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, how will the war evolve from here and what are the potential implications for energy markets? With tensions between China and the US rising on a range of fronts, where will geopolitical security and economic policy remain bound together and where will they decouple — and what could that mean for global supply chains? How might shifting political tides in the Middle East affect global foreign policy towards the region? And, could Pakistan be the setting for the next Black Swan geopolitical event?

Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen our latest episodes as soon as they’re available - and please like and leave a review so that it's easier for others to find. 

NB: This was recorded on 23 February 2023. 
For any terms used please refer to this glossary:  https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html 
Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

All details correct at time of recording.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html