Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast NAB Morning Call
| Titre | Date | Durée | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECB and US inflation leading to rate cuts. Australia waits. | 01 Sep 2024 | 00:17:39 | |
Monday 2nd September 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB European inflation is now at its lowest level in three years, whilst shares hit an all-time high. That’s cemented in the probability of a cut by the ECB this month. Expectations for cuts by the Fed haven’t moved any higher, as the Core PCE inflation read on Friday was in-line with expectations. But the fact that other central banks are cutting doesn’t mean the RBA will. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks about what the RBA’s Andrew Hauser had to say on this during a podcast from Friday. Today is a quiet start to a busy week, with the US on holiday today, leading to non-farm payrolls on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Weekend Edition: Australian Equities Doing Nicely Thankyou | 30 Aug 2024 | 00:21:37 | |
Friday 16th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Despite all the fears of a major slowdown, Australian shares have continued to rise and the latest results season has provided stronger than expected earnings. nabtrade’s Gemma Dale says the underlying strength in the economy, which is providing the RBA with no motive to drop rates in a hurry, is being reflected in healthy sales revenue and profits. The historic safe choices (ie mining and financials), continue to perform, even though the questions are always asked – have we reached peak iron ore, have we reached peak bank? And what of the growth in ETFs. Are they becoming more dominant and are they being used primarily as a vehicle to invest in overseas assets? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Holding Pattern | 20 Aug 2024 | 00:15:10 | |
Wednesday 21st August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been another quiet session, with stocks taking a breather after an 8-day rally, with volumes for the S&P 25% below its 20-day average. Bond yields have pushed lower, which NAB’s Ken Crompton says is largely a response to Canada’s CPI numbers, which presented the evidence needed for the Bank of Canada to continue with its rate cuts. The US dollar ticked lower again, thanks to a sharp rise in the Yen, which was a response to a Bank of Japan report suggesting inflation was rising from wage pressures and corporate behaviour (presumably, claiming bigger margins). That seems to have been taken as the case for further rate hikes by the bank, and Friday’s inflation number might seal the deal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| RBA gives it all, but is any of it new? | 06 May 2024 | 00:15:34 | |
Tuesday 7th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA meets today and is expected to keep rates on hold. They also release their revised inflation forecasts in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there will be some market sensitivity around these numbers, as well as the press conference, although there’s a firm expectation that rates won’t budge today. There is one central bank that might cut rates this week though. Listen in for more on that, plus the hopes of a peace deal in the Middle East and a sprinkling of second tier Euro data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Taxing issues don’t hold back risk sentiment | 28 Sep 2020 | 00:10:57 | |
Tuesday 29th September 2020US and European equities rose sharply, with rising confidence seeing a fall in the US dollar and a rise in the Aussie. The reports that the US President has paid very little in tax might provide some fodder for Joe Biden in the TV debate and NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it could influence undecided voters. Whichever way you look at it, it’s going to be a messy election. Meanwhile, the pound has gained in hopes of a Brexit deal, which has offset any concerns about further lockdowns in the UK. The gains in the Aussie dollar will be partially influenced by an expectation that the RBA won’t cut rates next week, waiting instead till November. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Courting support ahead of election debates | 27 Sep 2020 | 00:13:03 | |
Monday 28th September 2020COVID19 cases continue to rise in Europe, with numbers in the UK and France now well above the first wave. Yet, whilst there’s very little in the way of new data to influence the markets this week, there’s plenty of non-COVID politics; the President’s nomination of Amy Comey Barrett for the Supreme Court, the first Presidential election debate mid-week, and the start of another round of Brexit talks, with hopes increasing that a deal will be struck. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through a week which will be less about economic data and more about geopolitics – and virus numbers of course. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Are bailouts bygones? | 24 Sep 2020 | 00:12:39 | |
Friday 25th September 2020Equities were rising again in the US overnight on the hopes that a stimulus deal would be struck between the GOP and Democrats, but as optimism turned to reality, prices fell, the US dollar regained some of its strength and bond yields weakened. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it demonstrates how markets are clinging to any good news in amongst what’s a pretty bleak picture right now. The pound gained a little ground as the Chancellor Rishi Sunak unveiled the follow-up to the furlough scheme, but its clear many workers will not be covered and unemployment will rise. Have we reached the end of the road for sizeable bailouts from governments? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Aussie dollar dips lower as risk sentiment rises | 23 Sep 2020 | 00:13:07 | |
Thursday 24th September 2020NAB had forecast that the Aussie dollar would reach 74 US cents by the end of the year. It did earlier this month but, as global risk sentiment rises, it is rapidly losing ground. On his first day back from holidays, NAB’s Ray Attrill is asked whether he still thinks the Aussie will regain strength, given the hit it has been taking this week? How much of it is down to the easing expectations for the RBA? The risk-off mood is being driven by rising virus concerns and louder voices from the Fed on the need for a fiscal stimulus which looks less likely by the day. To add to global concerns, flash PMI numbers for Europe show a service sector in contraction, putting the kibosh on rapid recovery hopes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Powell asks for support, Debelle hints at easing, NAB revises rates forecasts | 22 Sep 2020 | 00:13:57 | |
Wednesday 23rd September 2020In the US Jerome Powell spelt out very clearly in his testimony before Congress that more fiscal stimulus was needed and had been assumed by many board members in their policy predictions. Meanwhile, in Australia Guy Debelle has hinted that more monetary easing might be round the corner. Tapas Strickland says NAB has revised its rates forecast and explains some of the reasoning behind it. It’s been a bad day for the pound, as infections rise further and more restrictions are imposed on the public. A swag of PMIs are out today for Europe and the US, which will give a clearer idea of how each economy is traversing the economic impacts of the pandemic. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Equities fall, bond yields weaken, virus concerns rise | 21 Sep 2020 | 00:13:11 | |
Tuesday 22nd September 2020Concerns over the impact if a second wave in the US and Europe seem to be gathering momentum, driving investors to government bonds and safe-haven currencies. NAB’s Gavin Friend says banking stocks have added to the slide today following an investigation into how some big banks failed to stop money laundering up to three years ago. The US election is adding to uncertainty. But it’s the rising virus numbers that are the real concern and what else, if anything, central banks can do about it. All eyes will be on Jerome Powell’s testimony on the Fed and on Guy Debelle’s speech today, to see the direction the RBA is planning to head. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Now, a word from your central bank | 20 Sep 2020 | 00:12:57 | |
Monday 21st September 2020As COVID-19 cases rise in many parts of the world, and more restrictive measures likely in the UK and Europe, there’s the question of what more central banks can do to help stabilise the global economy? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says this should be an interesting week in that respect, with central bank speakers out in force, including Jerome Powell facing a two-day grilling by the Senate and the Congress in the US. Meanwhile, uncertainty is hurting the share markets, which took a tumble on Friday. The pound could be a casualty this week with Boris Johnson set to announce more restrictions for the UK public on Tuesday, whilst, conversely, Victoria’s infection rates are falling and NZ is likely to ease measures from tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Equites fall again, BoE talks negative rates | 17 Sep 2020 | 00:13:45 | |
Friday 18th September 2020It’s been a topsy turvy session overnight, that’s seen equities slide even though a day ago the FOMC was signalling years of near zero interest rates. NAB’s Gavin Friend says by extending the expected period of low rates investors dwelled more on the negative impacts of the virus. There was some optimism that a deal would be struck to provide more fiscal stimulus in the US, but despite the President’s calls for Republicans to be prepared to spend more, a deal still seems unlikely. In the UK the pound also twisted and turned, driven up by optimism over a Brexit deal from Ursula von der Leyen and driven down by talks of negative interest rates from the Bank of England. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Fed says three years near zero | 16 Sep 2020 | 00:15:04 | |
Thursday 17th September 2020US interest rates will be lower for longer – that’s the takeout from today’s FOMC meeting. So, what are the implications of three, perhaps four years, of near zero rates? A question put to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril in today’s Morning Call podcast. How concerned should we be about deflation, with figures in the UK today showing a 0.4 percent fall in August? There’s also discussion on today’s labour market data for Australia, GDP numbers for Q2 for New Zealand and what to expect from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England later on. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| China shops, RBA waits, FOMC meets | 15 Sep 2020 | 00:13:53 | |
Wednesday 16th September 2020Equities are on the rise again in the US. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it has been driven by a flurry of M&A activity, alongside vaccine hopes and reasonable activity numbers from China, which showed retail sales turning positive for the first time this year. Compared to that, US data was decidedly mixed, with the pace of recovery seeming to slow. The FOMC meeting tomorrow morning will present a dovish view, says Gavin, with the possibility of downgrading some of their economic forecasts. On the podcast there’s also discussion on yesterday’s RBA minutes and why the latest UK employment numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| US jobs cool and services soften | 05 May 2024 | 00:16:18 | |
Monday 6th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The non-farm payrolls in the US came in lower than expected, with a rise in the unemployment rate. NAAB’s Ken Crompton says we shouldn’t get too excited by the unemployment rate because it’s a small move when you take it to the second decimal place. The Services ISM was also weaker, falling into contraction territory. The impact has been to bring forward rate cut expectations a little, with a 75% chance the Fed will move in September. In Australia home loans data wasn’t particularly encouraging reading. The focus is now on the RBA tomorrow, then state budges later in the week. Will spending add to pressure on jobs, slowing the fall in inflation? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Pfizer vaccine by year end and more easing by the RBA? | 14 Sep 2020 | 00:13:34 | |
Tuesday 15th September 2020Shares climbed in the US today on the hope that Pfizer will have a vaccine ready by the end of the year. It’s a promise made by their CEO at the weekend and touted by the US President. The US dollar fell, with the NZ dollar the main beneficiary. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says speculation is mounting that the RBA will buy more government bonds to bring interest rates down, which accounts for a why there’s been less interest in the Aussie dollar. Plus, more volatility for the pound, and activity numbers from China today will help determine whether consumer confidence has come back yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Six months on, a still uncertain future | 13 Sep 2020 | 00:12:27 | |
Monday 14th September 2020It’s just over six months since the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and we’re all still unsure about how it will all end. NAB’s Tapas Strickland said we can expect some optimism today as the Oxford University-Astra Zeneca trials resume, and that could help the Aussie dollar gain some ground? But could it also hit tech stocks, who have been enjoying their moment in the sun as home workers have been more reliant on technology. The tech bubble will be tested this week with a significant number of IPOs in the US. On today’s podcast there’s also discussion on the latest inflation numbers in the US ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, the UK’s delayed recovery, China’s credit growth and Japan’s new Prime Minister. Plus a look ahead to the RBA meeting tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Pound pummelled as UK EU relationship turns sour | 10 Sep 2020 | 00:13:45 | |
Friday 11th September 2020The pound lost further ground today as the EU objected to a new government bill that would unilaterally overturn the Withdrawal Agreement. NAB’s Gavin Friend says observers have been aghast at the actions of the UK government and that’s being felt in the pound. But has the weakened pound held back the Euro? The ECB’s Christine Lagarde signalled that the ECB was watching the rising exchange rate, but it was not a target for the central bank. Does that give the currency permission to rise higher? Meanwhile, uncertainty remains in US equities, falling markedly today, with the US dollar holding its own, most likely because of the Sterling effect. Weekly jobs numbers in the US also disappointed a little. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Equities bounce back ahead of ECB meeting | 09 Sep 2020 | 00:12:18 | |
Thursday 10th September 2020There’s been a rebound in risk sentiment which NAB’s Tapas Strickland has been driven by a buy-the-dip mentality, with opinions still divided as to whether tech stocks remain over-valued. Meanwhile the US dollar has fallen again, boosting the Aussie dollar and the Euro. The rising value of the Euro of late will be of particular concern to the ECB which meets later – higher priced exports could hinder Europe’s recovery. The pound meanwhile is finding it hard to keep up as Brexit uncertainty remains and concerns over rising COVID infections, with new restrictions imposed in the UK today. All that said, the data over the last 24 hours has shown largely positive signs of recovery. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| US equities hit again, Boris and Donald play tough guys | 08 Sep 2020 | 00:12:38 | |
Wednesday 9th September 2020US equities have had a third session with substantial falls. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the damage is largely confined to the tech sector but there is evidence that it could be broadening to a fuller risk-off mood. The reasons for the uncertainty are clear, beyond irrational exuberance, we have increasing rhetoric from Donald Trump over China, expanding on his earlier decoupling comments; Boris Johnson is turning up the heat on Brexit negotiations, threatening to change the withdrawal agreement, even if it means breaching international law; and COVID-19 cases continue to rise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Brexit Brinkmanship and the Melbourne effect | 07 Sep 2020 | 00:11:42 | |
Tuesday 8th September 2020A drop in the pound was the only significant market move today, driven by threats from Boris Johnson to walk away in mid-October if he doesn’t get the Brexit deal he wants. Normally such remarks are taken as brinkmanship as negotiations near the finish line, but today there was a market reaction – perhaps because there’s little else to go on. Data from Australia today will give a clear indication of the impact of the Melbourne lockdown on other states – the NAB Business Survey for August and the weekly payrolls numbers. NAB’s Tapas Strickland also talks through a Bloomberg survey showing the expectation for further rate cuts and increased bond buying from the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| US jobs coming back, but harder from here | 06 Sep 2020 | 00:13:30 | |
Monday 7th September 2020US jobs data on Friday helped the equities market to regain a little composure as it fell for the second day. It also saw Treasury yields rise sharply, steepening the curve. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril proffers his opinion on how much of this is a short-term response and how much the start of a longer-term shift. The Fed’s Jerome Powell said on Friday that the recovery ”will get harder from here”. There’s also the discussion on the impact on the Australian economy of the extension to the Melbourne lock-down announced yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Sobering up; equities hit, Aussie dollar slides ahead of a slow recovery | 03 Sep 2020 | 00:13:36 | |
Friday 4th September 2020There have been massive falls in US equities, particularly tech stocks. NAB’s David de Garis says thin trading in summer can always create sharper moves, but there’s little doubt a correction was overdue and tech stocks have borne the brunt of it. There’s been no encouraging news to divert attention – the Services ISM number came in lower than expected, with the employment component still in contraction. The weekly jobless claims numbers remain persistently high, with non-farm payrolls providing more detail tonight. And the Fed’s Charles Evans has suggested it’ll take more than two years to see a full recovery. The biggest victim of this negative mood – other than retail investors feeling the equity hit – is the Australian dollar. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| A slower recovery than hoped for? Yet equities still rise. | 02 Sep 2020 | 00:14:17 | |
Thursday 3rd September 2020The US dollar managed a slight recovery in the overnight session, which has also seen continued growth in US equities, echoed across the Atlantic. On today’s podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why the positive sentiment when the data we’re seeing isn’t so positive? ADP employment numbers were softer than expected and the Fed’s Beige Book suggested the recovery in the US is slowing. They also discuss yesterday’s GDP numbers for Australia and the whole gamut of services PMI numbers out later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Europe’s prices drop, US shares rise, Aussie GDP today | 01 Sep 2020 | 00:14:24 | |
Wednesday 2nd September 2020Deflation in Europe comes as no surprise, just as the shift in the Fed’s monetary policy seems likeold news, but NAB’s Gavin Friend explains how the markets are still adjusting to it. Data releases have largely been positive, with a higher than expected increase in the USA ISM, and the Caixin PMI for China is at its highest level since 2011. So, what can we expect from Australia’s GDP numbers for Q2? Will they signal that the RBA, and the government, needs to do more to help the economy recover? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| The Weekend Edition - The fundamentals of the Magnificent Seven | 03 May 2024 | 00:23:50 | |
Friday 3rd May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. They dominated the global share market last year and many have enjoyed tremendous growth so far this year, with NVIDIA as the clear outperformer. Whilst there’s a been a bit of an adjustment lately, Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies in Connecticut, says there’s still plenty of momentum and their own analysis points to prices pushing higher. Katie’s approach is to build a portfolio based on technicals. “I do read macro strategists work”, she says in this weekend’s podcast, ”but it won’t drive our decision making process”. In other words, any macro development will be reflected in the indicators they follow at some point. And those technicals are painting a positive picture for most of the big tech stocks right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Aussie dollar flying high, US equities stall | 31 Aug 2020 | 00:13:46 | |
Tuesday 1st September 2020The Australian and NZ dollars reached two-year highs in the overnight session, with the US dollar declining further. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether the trend will continue, wand whether we could see the Aussie reach 80 US cents late next year. There’s also discussion on Warren Buffet’s investments in Japan, Richard Clarida’s explanation on the Fed’s policy change and how the rate of US COVID-19 fatalities seems to be reacting sluggishly to the fall in cases. Plus, what to expect from the RBA today and the US ISM manufacturing number tomorrow morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| US dollar falls as Fed’s policy sinks in | 30 Aug 2020 | 00:13:44 | |
Monday 31st August 2020NAB’s Ray Attrill says the US dollar bore the brunt of Friday’s reflective thinking on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. He says, if the market believes the Fed will run inflation up to 3%, then real US interest rates would be lower and higher inflation should force the currency down over time, hence the response. But isn’t this somewhat hypothetical when inflation has struggled to get anywhere near 3 percent? There’s also discussion about US confidence data, China’s ISM numbers today and the impact of Shinzo Abe’s resignation announcement. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Powell’s average address | 27 Aug 2020 | 00:13:40 | |
Friday 28th August 2020Jerome Powell used his virtual address to the Jackson Hole Symposium to announcer the Fed’s strategy of targeting an ‘average’ 2% inflation rate, a subtle change that is likely to keep interest rates lower for longer. NAB’s David de Garis says that lower rates will help to propel investment once confidence returns, but it’ll take a while to eat into the current spare capacity. Meanwhile another million people signed for unemployment benefit in the US, business confidence seems to be picking up in Europe and the ABS provided confirmation that private capex in Australia was way down in Q2. Of course, the Q3 numbers will be a lot more interesting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| High winds, high hopes and higher equities | 26 Aug 2020 | 00:14:27 | |
Thursday 27th August 2020There’s continued optimism in the markets, with equities reaching new highs again, helped on by better than expected durable goods orders in the US, and despite rising US-China tensions and the potential impact of Hurricane Laura. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril also discusses the continued interest in Australian bonds and the impact on GDP of yesterday’s construction numbers and today’s private capex read. Plus, what will be said at the virtual Jackson Hole, which kicks off today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Choppy waters, with a flash of hope for Germany | 25 Aug 2020 | 00:13:31 | |
Wednesday 26th August 2020The US dollar is down again this morning, with equities up and touching new highs again. More significantly, we’ve seen sizeable increase in government bond yields in the US and Europe. NASB’s David de Garis talks through the factors at play, including hope that the US China trade relationship will continue as planned in the phase one deal, and concerns that a bigger supply of bonds in the pipeline could be inflationary. Meanwhile the IFO numbers from Germany gave ground for some optimism, despite rising COVID-19 cases in the country. Yet consumer confidence in the US has fallen, even as home sales increase 13%, to levels not seen since the subprime crisis. Good news or bad? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Looking on the bright side of life | 24 Aug 2020 | 00:13:28 | |
Tuesday 25th August 2020US equities reached new highs again, with big gains also in Europe. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says investors are back to reacting to the vaccine hopes, with President Trump announcing he will fast track roll-outs in the US – faster than a ‘traditional’ administration. Meanwhile, NZ’s retail numbers yesterday fell significantly during Q2 as expected – so will they pay the price for a protracted lockdown? And will German IFO numbers today confirm that the European economy is recovering at a slower rate than the US? Plus, Australia’s payroll data today will show the early impacts of the Victorian lockdown. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Europe slows down, Trump’s vaccine plans speed up | 23 Aug 2020 | 00:12:56 | |
Monday 24th August 2020Europe’s PMI’s disappointed markets on Friday, whereas the US numbers were better than expected, helping to lift equities to new highs (again). The UK provided mixed news, with string PMIs offset by a week of Brexit negotiations that led nowhere. Donald Trump is pushing out all the stops on a virus and cure for COVID-19, with announcements expected today on one, if not both. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through all of this, and reports that the take-out from the National Cabinet Meeting on Friday was that States and Territories should do more to fund Australia’s recovery. In the week ahead, the meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole should provide a steady stream of news and views. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Equity highs, then PMIs | 20 Aug 2020 | 00:13:31 | |
Friday 21st August 2020US equities continue to rise, even though the jobless claims numbers rose last week. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend, at what point will they appear to be overvalued? There’s also discussion on bond movements, the continued fall in the Kiwi dollar, even against a weaker US dollar today, and the rise in the pound. There’s lots of PMIs released today – services and manufacturing for the UK, Germany, the Eurozone and the US – what will they tell us about the shape of the global recovery? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| FOMC minutes fail to map out direction | 19 Aug 2020 | 00:13:59 | |
Thursday 20th August 2020There’s no doubt about it, there was disappointment from investors after the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting were released. There was hope that there would be some indication of how the committee would be arriving at a forward guidance for Fed strategy, but nothing. As NAB’s David de Garis says, Jerome Powell had suggested that their strategic review – that was interrupted by the COVID-19 outbreak - was well advanced and details would be released soon. Clearly not this soon, and equities fell back a little on the lack of new news. There’s a clearer picture on the direction of the RBNZ, with an expectation that interest rates will be in negative territory next year. There’s discussion of that on today’s podcast, plus the China-Australia fracas and US unemployment and stimulus (or lack of). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Stocking up and moving up | 18 Aug 2020 | 00:13:06 | |
Wednesday 19th August 2020US stocks continue to rise to record highs, helped today by strong housing starts and building permits. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether there’s too much optimism about the rate of recovery and that’s showing in overvalued assets, including stocks and gold. Maybe the FOMC minutes will bring us down to earth tomorrow morning, although the news that Nancy Pelosi has indicated she’ll agree to go halfway on a fiscal stimulus deal might add to market enthusiasm. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| US productivity slips adding to labour costs | 02 May 2024 | 00:19:29 | |
Friday 3rd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US productivity has slipped quite markedly in Q1, that’s pushed up labour costs – is that something to worry about? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Gavin Friend, who says markets are still responding to yesterday’s dovish slant from the Fed. Non-farm payrolls will be watched keenly tonight, along with US Services PMI. Locally Australia’s home loans data is out today. Phil and Gavin also talk through revisions to the OECD’s growth forecasts for the US, Australia, Europe and the UK. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Aussie flies higher, US equities higher still | 17 Aug 2020 | 00:13:19 | |
Tuesday 18th August 2020The US dollar continues to fall, pushing the Aussie dollar higher this morning. The dovish tone set by the RBNZ – plus a delayed election – means the NZ dollar hasn’t seen the same level of growth. In fact, NAB’s Ray Attrill points out in today’s Morning Call, the Aussie-NZ dollar cross is at a two year high. That’s not all, US equities are hitting new levels too, even though the idea of any sort of fiscal deal seems to have fallen off the table and growth slowed markedly in the latest NY Empire Manufacturing Index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Longer lockdowns, no trade talks, Democrats swing into action | 16 Aug 2020 | 00:13:50 | |
Monday 17th August 2020Lockdowns have been extended in Victoria and Auckland, even as COVID-19 cases ease. But, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, says hotspots around the world are becoming a bigger concern, hence the continued uncertainty in markets – although equities continue to perform close to record highs. With so much focus on the virus it’s not surprising that US China trade talks have been called off for the foreseeable future, with little market impact on the news. More interesting, perhaps, will be the Democrat Convention that kicks off today. What impact will their policies have? Can anything stop the slide in the US dollar right now? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Jobs, stimulus and bond yields | 13 Aug 2020 | 00:12:56 | |
Friday 14th August 2020Jobs data is confusing right now. How much is it influenced by government stimulus activity? Well, not much in the US right now because an agreement still hasn’t been reached, but weekly new claims are below a million for the first time since March. In Australia unemployment has risen to 7.5%, before the Melbourne lockdown. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the data, and the market reaction, with equities still high and the bond sell-off continuing even as the US Treasury auctions off a heap more of them. And will Auckland stay in lockdown? Also today, a slew of performance data from China and US retail sales. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Fed’s lack of progress | 01 May 2024 | 00:17:09 | |
Thursday 2nd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed kept rates on hold for the sixth meeting in a row this morning, warning that there had ben a lack of further progress towards their 2% inflation target. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it didn’t really change market pricing for a cut, with the first fully priced move still looking like December. But there was a fair bit discussed during the press conference, from the terminal rate, the impact of the election and the possibility of a rate hike. Jerome Powell gave a cautious ‘no’ to the rate hike. Listen in for the latest from the Fed and the latest data, including JOLTS from last night and Australia’s trade data today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Bond yields push higher, heavy losses in equities a day out from the Fed | 30 Apr 2024 | 00:14:43 | |
Wednesday 1st May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A month-end a day out from the Fed decision in the midst of some earning results for some heavyweight stocks, its hardly surprising we saw a lot of volatility in bonds, currencies and equities in this session. NAB’s Skye Masters says yields pushed higher on the release of US employment costs, which were higher than expected, contribute g to more of a push back in the timing of Fed rate cuts. Jerome Powell would have to be uber hawkish to pish rates any higher says Skye, but we’ll know this time tomorrow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| A sticky last mile for Europe | 29 Apr 2024 | 00:14:01 | |
Tuesday 30th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB German inflation numbers overnight were stickier than expected, presenting a challenge for the ECB, one of the few central banks that has been talking-up the mid-term rate cuts. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril if this puts June cut in jeopardy, or the expected follow-up cuts later in the year. Elsewhere we saw a sharp reversal in the value of the Yen. Has it been driven by intervention, or at least the anticipation of it? Australia’s retail numbers will be the focus locally today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Waiting longer as inflation persists | 28 Apr 2024 | 00:12:10 | |
Monday 29th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
The US March PCE Deflator number on Friday was broadly in line with consensus, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says upward revisions to the January and February numbers show inflation remains persistent which delays further the timing of cuts by the Fed. There weren’t big moves in bond yields but that could all change with a busy week for US data, including ISMs and Payrolls, along with Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. To add some spice to the equation The Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump, if he were to become President again, might challenge the independence of the central bank. There was a strong move down in the Yen on Friday after the Bank of Japan did little to support the currency and there’s a question as to whether they will lift rates at all this year. With inflation so low, do they need to? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Weekend Edition: Moving up the renewables value chain | 26 Apr 2024 | 00:29:01 | |
Friday 26th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Australia is well placed in terms of natural resources for the green energy transition. We are already one of the world’s largest exporters of lithium, in-demand for the production of batteries, primarily for electric vehicles. Alison Reeve, Energy and Climate Deputy Program Director at the Grattan Institute, joins Phil to talk about how Australia can gain maximum benefit from the drive for NetZero. Can we, for example, move up the renewables value chain, so we don’t simply extract minerals and ship overseas. There’s an enormous opportunity, says Alison, provided we recognise the strengths we provide and where in the chain we stop adding value. In this wide raging discussion they also look at the growth of sodium-ion batteries, hydrogen’s place in Australia’s future and the pitfalls of localised solar cell production. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Stagflation anyone? | 25 Apr 2024 | 00:19:46 | |
Wednesday 24th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is stagflation on the horizon for America? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril after we saw slower growth and rising prices in data out on Wednesday. Could slow growth impact the euphoria around the Magnificent Seven? Well not just yet, as Microsoft and Alphabet have both enjoyed double digit percentage growth in after-hours prices o the back of strong earnings data. They also discuss Australia’s latest CPI data which will mean a revised forecast from the RBA, but what does it do to the speed of rate cuts? And could the Bank of Japan surprise today, as the Yen hits another low? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Shares Rally In Northern Hiatus | 19 Aug 2024 | 00:15:54 | |
Tuesday 20th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are in the thick of the US and European holiday season, mixed with a dearth of data. Hence, shares are pushing higher, presumably on the hope of greater reassurance around rate cuts from the Fed at Jackson Hole. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets wouldn’t react well if there isn’t some indication that September cuts are on the cards. Meanwhile the US dollar drifts lower, oil takes a hit and bonds remain fairly flat. Today Canada’s CPI is the main data point, whilst we’ll be looking for any additional colour in the latest minutes from the RBA. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| PMIs show narrowing US-Europe gap, Inflation Day for Australia | 23 Apr 2024 | 00:16:35 | |
Wednesday 24th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB PMIs showed some strength in Europe, but were generally weaker than expected in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s the US numbers that generated a market reaction because it adds to the leading indicators that challenge the notion of US exceptionalism and that the gap between the US and Europe is closing. Today the quarterly CPI print for Australia is unlikely to move the dial on RBA cuts, even if it comes in slightly lower than expected. Plus, Tesla’s earnings results, which have seen a rise in after hours pricing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| The Equities Strike Back (for now) | 22 Apr 2024 | 00:12:35 | |
Tuesday 23rd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The force of AI is strong it seems. It’s certainly pushing equities back up again in the US ahead of earnings results for several of the Magnificent Seven later this week. Meanwhile, bond markets and currencies have calmed down, although the pound is weaker on expectations for an earlier cut by the Bank of England. Today PMIs for the UK, US and Europe will give a clearer indication of the relative strength of each economy and, perhaps, justify the different schedules being pursued by the various central banks. JBWere's Sally Auld talks through it all on today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||
| Is there a tech correction going on? | 21 Apr 2024 | 00:17:06 | |
Monday 22nd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The magnificent seven have been taking a hit in the US share market. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the forward-guidance for Netflix wasn’t received well, and four more of th large tech stocks report this week. Meanwhile, there were further signals of delays in Fed rate cuts, whilst the impetus in Canada, Europe and the UK seems to be, if anything, moving the other way. But, assuming no further escalation in the Middle East, it seems likely that US equities might be the focus in the early part of this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. | |||