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Oil volatility, a broadening equity rally and earnings dominated markets yesterday. While Netflix disappointed, SpaceX delivered standout results and Elon Musk floated the idea of a potential tie-up with Tesla. In Asia, stronger semiconductor sentiment and robust Japanese export growth supported risk appetite, offsetting weakness in CATL, China’s top battery maker, following its earnings release. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, examine Europe as France's debt concerns deepen, European bank stocks central to Italy’s and Spain’s stock markets hit a four-month low, and Swiss large caps have been outperforming.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (07:03) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
• (11:52) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
• (17:42) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

US technology stocks bounced back on Monday after last week's sharp sell-off, while political unrest in France weighed heavily on European markets, French bonds, and the euro. Oil prices swung on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and investors continued to assess the implications of higher interest rates, AI investment spending, and upcoming earnings. In today's show, Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research discusses last week's weakness in AI-related stocks, explains why we remain constructive on the long-term AI opportunity, and highlights the growing importance of cybersecurity.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (07:12) - The state of artificial intelligence: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research
• (13:17) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

The Nasdaq just posted its worst week since Liberation Day amid growing doubts over AI momentum. Capital rotated into bonds, with the US 10-year Treasury yield recording its biggest weekly decline since February, despite firm inflation data. Meanwhile, the ongoing earnings season looks set to test market sentiment. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why the medium- to long-term outlook for the technology sector is still positive, and what it would take for this to change.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (01:02) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (07:07) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
• (10:12) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

China's Golden Week is often viewed as a pulse check on the health of the world's second-largest economy. This year, the results have reignited debate over consumer confidence, policy stimulus and the outlook for growth. In this episode, we examine what the latest Golden Week trends reveal, while exploring the bigger investment questions around China's property market, technological ambitions, export outlook and the impact of escalating trade tensions.

Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research, Hong Kong at Julius Baer, sits down with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Lotus Asset Management, for a wide-ranging discussion on market sentiment, economic recovery and where investors may find the most compelling opportunities in China over the next 6 months.

• (00:28) - What options do policymakers have following weaker Golden Week data?
• (03:51) - Property stimulus and growth outlook
• (09:30) - China's rapid advancements in technological innovation
• (13:40) - Tightening trade restrictions - what's the impact?
• (18:07) - Are investors being overly pessimistic?
• (21:04) - Sectors to watch in the next 6 months

European markets closed in positive territory on Thursday as investors rotated out of AI and tech stocks into defensive sectors such as healthcare and materials, as well as buying up government bonds. The same story played out in the US where the Dow Jones was the star performer. Overnight comments from Fed Chair Warsh led to traders reducing their bets on an October hike from 25% to 15%. Warsh also made some encouraging comments about artificial intelligence which doubtless assisted the Asian equity market recovery this morning. As ever on a Friday, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins the podcast to deliver his thoughts on currencies and metals this week. Tune in to find out what he thinks about gold, the Aussie dollar, the Brazilian real, and even the Mexican peso.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (06:16) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva
• (10:52) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Markets were driven by three themes yesterday: hotter US inflation, rising expectations of Fed rate hikes, and a growing AI sell-off. These forces weighed on equities, even as market breadth in the S&P 500 remained broadly balanced, and triggered sharp swings in bonds and currencies. Europe held up well, but risk sentiment remains fragile heading into today, with technology stocks in Asia also under pressure. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses iron ore, including why the same iron ore trades at sharply different prices in different locations around the world.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (07:18) - Iron ore: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
• (11:56) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

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Fed comments eased fears of prolonged policy tightening, helping equities recover from an uncertain start. Beneath the surface, however, AI-related stocks remained under pressure amid fresh concerns over China's technological ambitions, while US bank earnings failed to impress. Meanwhile, surging gas prices and renewed attacks in the Middle East reignited concerns ahead of today's US inflation report. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the implications for corporate bonds, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, examines the outlook for both US and European banks.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (05:54) - Bond Market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
• (10:31) - US Financials update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
• (14:20) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

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Geopolitical developments remained firmly in focus on Monday, lifting oil prices and supporting energy stocks, while technology shares came under pressure. At the same time, investors digested hawkish central bank rhetoric and prepared for the start of a closely watched earnings season. In today’s show, Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research discusses OpenAI’s revenue rate, intensifying competition within the AI industry, and the growing opposition to data centre expansion.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:32) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (07:34) - AI price wars: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research
• (12:35) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets rebounded on Friday as OpenAI's revenue outlook and Trump's ‘energy ceasefire’ with Russia eased supply concerns, weighing on oil despite geopolitical risks. SpaceX's move into mobile telecom sent US carriers sharply lower. Attention now turns to major US bank earnings, inflation data, and semiconductor results. In today’s show Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team explains why the US technology sector remains the only game in town, what levels the euro needs to defend, and what lies ahead for precious metals.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (01:19) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (07:27) - Technical Analysis update: Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis
• (10:25) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hyperscaler investment in AI infrastructure has reached unprecedented levels, with capital expenditure figures now dwarfing even those of the global oil and gas industry. As spending surges and supply tightness persists, investors are wondering how sustainable this boom is, and which segments of the AI value chain stand to benefit most?

In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video at Julius Baer, is joined by Enrico Chinello, research analyst in the Next Generation Research team, to examine the drivers behind hyperscaler spending, the impact on the AI value chain, and the outlook for key beneficiaries such as semiconductor manufacturers and equipment providers. The discussion covers the sustainability of current investment levels, the implications for free cash flow and financing habits among leading AI companies, and the risks and opportunities as the AI cycle continues to accelerate.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (00:57) - Defining hyperscalers and their role
• (01:57) - The scale and acceleration of hyperscaler capital expenditure
• (03:52) - Risks of AI training losing steam and visibility on spending
• (04:19) - Market reactions to AI risk warnings and supply chain constraints
• (05:49) - Drivers of price inflation in memory and compute units
• (07:23) - FOMO and hyperscaler behaviour in capacity booking
• (08:01) - Who bears the cost of rising AI infrastructure spending?
• (08:32) - Duration of supply tightness and outlook for normalization
• (09:17) - Pricing power across semiconductors, memory, servers
• (11:07) - Who will benefit most in the AI value chain?
• (11:23) - Beyond semiconductors
• (13:04) - The sustainability of the AI spending boom and changing financing habits
• (14:33) - Free cash flow compression and outlook for returns
• (16:27) - Risks and what to monitor
• (18:10) - Pacing the frontier - what will be the impact?
• (20:31) - Closing remarks
• (21:22) - Legal information

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Markets stumbled after a newspaper report suggested that OpenAI's annualised revenues could fall well short of previous expectations. Overnight, however, sentiment improved as doubts emerged over the accuracy of the report. Meanwhile, a stronger-than-expected 30-year US Treasury auction helped drive yields lower, providing additional support for equities alongside easing oil prices. In today's episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his views on the US dollar, gold, and the emerging market currencies he believes offer the most compelling opportunities.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (08:30) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva
• (13:27) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

Markets are being driven by developments in bond markets on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, concerns over French public finances weigh on sentiment, while in the US, inflation worries and a well-received Treasury auction triggered sharp moves in yields. Other topics include the challenges facing European carmakers in China, the resilience of US equities, and SpaceX looking to tap the bond market. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses the apparent disconnect between the recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports and persistently high oil prices, as well as the positive momentum in the electric vehicle market.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (07:08) - Energy markets/oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
• (12:10) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs in a broad-based rally, while lower bond yields and oil prices supported European equities. Overnight, renewed Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher and weighed on Asian markets. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, notes that French fiscal risks are justified, but markets already reflect a fairly pessimistic outlook. The key question is whether the situation in France spills over to other eurozone countries. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, highlights the high hurdle for next week's US earnings season. Key areas to watch include bank earnings, hyperscaler capital expenditure, and signs of AI-driven productivity gains extending beyond the technology sector.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (06:20) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
• (09:41) - Q3 earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
• (13:37) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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Equity markets started the week on a strong note, with both European and US stock indices posting solid gains. France proved the notable exception, however, as French equities and government bonds came under pressure amid growing concerns about the government’s ability to rein in the budget deficit ahead of the 2027 elections. In today’s episode, we are joined by Dr Damien Ng from our Next Generation Research team, who shares his latest insights into the remarkable scientific advances and shifting landscape in the fight against obesity, one of the most significant healthcare themes of our time.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (00:32) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (07:17) - Obesity drugs – Future Health: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research
• (12:22) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets rallied on Friday after a surprisingly weak US jobs report fuelled hopes that the Federal Reserve may remain on hold for longer. However, enthusiasm was tempered by another rise in Treasury yields, with the US 10-year yield hovering near multi-decade highs. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, keeping investors focused on energy markets despite a coordinated release of emergency fuel reserves by G7 countries. In today's show, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his views on European equities, the euro, and what the current market environment means for investors.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (01:36) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (08:35) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
• (11:51) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

With the US 10-year treasury yield recently crossing the 5% threshold and the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, bond investors are facing heightened volatility and a rapidly shifting landscape. Are higher yields a warning sign of greater risk, or do they present new opportunities for portfolio construction?

In this episode, Rishabh Saksena, Co-Head of Global Asset Class Specialists at Julius Baer, is joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research. Together, they dissect the drivers behind the recent surge in yields, the implications of monetary policy repricing, and the nuanced impact of a more hawkish Fed across the yield curve. The conversation covers duration preferences, the outlook for inflation and credit, the appeal of US investment-grade bonds, and the effects of increased bond issuance from sectors such as hyperscalers.

This episode was recorded on September 28, 2026.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:22) - What’s driving the move in yields?
• (02:42) - Investor concerns and opportunities in fixed income
• (03:45) - Why a hawkish Fed can support parts of the bond market
• (05:26) - Outlook for the Fed and interest rates into 2027
• (06:23) - Duration preferences and the case for intermediate maturities
• (08:35) - Appetite for longer-dated bonds and portfolio construction trends
• (10:07) - Implications of a sustained 5%+ US treasury yield
• (11:48) - Inflation risks and expectations for 2027
• (13:00) - Is corporate credit still attractive at current valuations?
• (14:24) - Impact of increased bond issuance from hyperscalers
• (15:48) - Key takeaways for fixed income investors
• (16:53) - Closing remarks
• (17:34) - Legal information

Markets endured a turbulent start to the fourth quarter as a global bond sell-off pushed US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2002 and intensified concerns over French public finances. European equities came under pressure, while US stocks recovered late in the session. Oil prices surged on supply concerns and geopolitical tensions, adding to inflation worries ahead of today's closely watched US payrolls report. In today's show, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the outlook for the US dollar, the euro and precious metals.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (07:03) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva
• (11:32) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

European inflation surprised to the upside, driven by energy prices, while softer US inflation data offered some reassurance for markets. However, the bond market stress continued with Treasury yields rising, weighing on equities in their final stretch of the quarter. Asian markets opened Q4 positively, led by technology shares after Micron's strong revenue outlook. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his insights about Asia and what he expects from the region in the final innings of the year.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (05:24) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong
• (11:33) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Whilst the 30-year US Treasury bond yield rose for a sixth consecutive session, traders were calmed somewhat by comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams yesterday. Markets are now pricing in a 49% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, down from 71% on Monday. This didn't help US indices though: they all declined on the day. Asia saw stocks recover and there was encouraging factory activity data out of China. Today sees the release of the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Our Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi, joined the podcast to explain what is driving higher yields, where he believes investors can find the best value now, and why he believes that a quality bias in credit portfolios is still warranted.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (06:20) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income
• (10:06) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

Rising oil prices and higher bond yields are keeping inflation concerns front and centre, pushing US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2007. The AI investment boom remains in focus, highlighted by NVIDIA's record buyback announcement and Anthropic's S-1 filing, a precursor to an eventual IPO. Policymakers continue to balance inflation and growth concerns, with Australia tightening policy further and China signalling fresh support for its slowing economy. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, talks about the need of large cities to adapt to climate change, creating a very appealing structural growth outlook for the infrastructure and buildings value chains.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (06:00) - Adapting to a warmer world: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
• (10:48) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Global bond yields moved higher once again as oil prices rallied following President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s ceasefire proposal. Meanwhile, Chinese equities fell to their lowest level in a year amid fresh US restrictions on technology exports. In Europe, the financial sector remains firmly in focus as market speculation grows around a potential tie-up between UBS and another major bank. In today’s episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his latest views on market leadership, the strongest-performing sectors, and the outlook for precious metals.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (01:10) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (07:11) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
• (10:32) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US-China relations are back in the spotlight, with investors watching whether talks between Presidents Trump and Xi can deliver meaningful progress and shift market sentiment. The discussions come as Chinese markets contend with trade uncertainty, tentative policy support and a challenging domestic growth backdrop.

In this episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about the Trump-Xi talks, the outlook for Chinese equities and property, and sentiment towards Chinese AI stocks. They also discuss the longer-term AI investment story and the impact of rising oil prices and interest rates on global markets.

• (00:00) - Trump-Xi talks: Can they deliver for markets?
• (01:55) - US, Europe and China: A changing trade landscape
• (06:40) - What could drive a year-end rebound in Chinese equities?
• (11:17) - Property support: Technical rebound or real recovery?
• (16:00) - China AI stocks: Sentiment versus fundamentals
• (22:38) - Oil, rates and the global market outlook

Rising government bond yields remain at the centre of investors' attention as expectations for further rate hikes in the US and Europe continue to build. Combined with a renewed rally in oil prices, higher yields are weighing on risk appetite and limiting the upside for equity markets. In today's episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Advisory in Geneva, joins us to share his views on the US dollar, precious metals, and the key market themes investors should be watching.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:21) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (06:35) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva
• (10:57) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

US Treasury yields surge the most since last year's tariff turmoil and what's next for gold? Bond yields surged globally as stronger-than-expected economic data reinforced higher-for-longer rate expectations. US Treasury yields recorded their biggest jump since last year's tariff-related market turmoil, while Japan's 10-year yield rose above 3% for the first time since 1996. Brent oil moved back above USD 100 per barrel. The safe-haven USD was well bid, while European and US equities moved lower. Asian markets were mixed today, with Japan rising after a three-day holiday. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses precious metals - from Fed policy to China's gold buying, he talks about what is likely to drive the gold and silver markets, and what is just noise.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (07:04) - Gold and silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
• (11:47) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

The Nasdaq climbed to a fresh record as investors continued to back AI-related stocks, while oil prices fell on hopes of easing tensions between the US and Iran. In today's episode, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, share how last week's Fed rate hike has impacted their expectations for bond and equity markets, and discuss the key risks and opportunities investors are watching now.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (06:07) - Bond markets after the FOMC: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income
• (09:18) - Equity markets after the FOMC: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy
• (14:24) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

Oil prices fell yesterday after President Trump said he would be open to meeting Iran’s leader this week. The accompanying enthusiasm carried over into both European and US bond and equity markets. And these were further boosted by positive headlines around Meta’s new AI Chatbot, Muse, boosting Meta’s share price by 11% in the session and powering a surge in the technology heavy hitters that helped the Nasdaq Composite close at a new record high. The upcoming summit between the US and China is now in focus. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins today’s podcast and talks, amongst other things, about the impact of Chinese electric vehicles outside their home market. Tune in to hear more of his thoughts on the importance of electrification and the outlook for Future Mobility.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (06:58) - Future mobility: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research
• (13:43) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Technology and semiconductor stocks started the week on a positive note, while oil prices fell as traders anticipated a recovery in Saudi shipments, despite continued geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Meanwhile, political uncertainty in Germany, pressure on the Japanese yen, and optimism ahead of the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, remain in focus. In today’s show, we discuss the latest developments across global markets and are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who examines the signals emerging from the US market, the state of investor sentiment and the technical outlook for information technology stocks

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (07:07) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
• (09:54) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Equity markets in 2026 have delivered a volatile ride, with a strong rebound pushing most major indices into positive territory. But as investor focus narrows on AI and the so-called Magnificent Seven, where should attention shift for the remainder of the year—and what risks are hiding in plain sight?

In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video, is joined by Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research at Julius Baer, for a deep dive into the drivers of equity market performance in 2026. They discuss regional and sector standouts, the breadth of earnings growth beyond mega cap technology stocks, and the implications of increasing market concentration. The conversation covers sector positioning—why financials, health care, and communications remain overweight—and explores the outlook for subsectors including retail banks, payment networks, pharma, biotech, MedTech, and telecom operators. Philipp also shares practical guidance on avoiding common equity investing mistakes as year-end approaches.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:02) - Equity market performance in 2026
• (02:47) - Sector winners and laggards year to date
• (04:10) - Key surprises from the latest earnings season
• (05:45) - The challenge of beating market expectations
• (06:05) - Concentration risk and the AI-driven rally
• (08:28) - Equity research process and sector ranking
• (10:44) - Overweight sectors: financials, health care, communications
• (12:31) - Financials: retail banks, payment networks, rating agencies
• (12:39) - Health care: pharma, biotech, MedTech
• (17:29) - Communications: internet platforms, telecom operators, AI infrastructure
• (20:49) - Year-end investing mistakes to avoid
• (23:17) - Closing remarks
• (23:43) - Legal information

Markets rebounded after three tough sessions, fuelled by a reassuring Federal Reserve, easing yields, and falling oil prices. Julius Baer Chief Economist David Kohl breaks down what the latest Fed decision means for the US economy and shares his expectations for the Bank of Japan following its overnight rate hike. Meanwhile, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, explores the implications for the US dollar and explains why gold continues to shine.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (06:52) - Fed and BOJ: David Kohl, Chief Economist
• (13:43) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva
• (17:55) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike in three years. The accompanying projections and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signalled a hawkish tilt. Markets responded by raising expectations for another rate hike by year-end, lifting the USD and short-term Treasury yields, while gold held up well. Equities weakened overall, although losses were relatively modest outside the Dow Jones. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses high oil, but even higher, diesel prices and why political interference is unlikely to derail the energy transition. Fixed income strategist, Afonso Borges, notes that bond markets have taken the Fed's communication mostly positively.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:47) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (05:40) - Energy markets update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
• (10:35) - Fixed income update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research
• (13:43) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Rising oil prices and higher inflation concerns dominated markets as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated rate decision. Treasury yields climbed to multi-decade highs, with the US 10-year yield breaching 5%, while government bond yields moved sharply higher across Europe and Asia. Equity markets struggled under the weight of rising rates, although energy stocks outperformed as oil prices rallied on supply disruption fears. In today's show, we discuss the key market drivers ahead of the Fed meeting and are joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who explains the latest changes to Swiss equity indices and examines what the recent rise in bond yields could mean for equity investors.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (07:59) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy
• (12:23) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

Oil prices and global bond yields continued their ascent on Monday and the US 10-year treasury yield has hit the 5.02% this morning - a level not seen since 2007. Markets are now pricing in a 92% probability of a rate hike at tomorrow's FOMC meeting. And with expectations amongst traders growing that this will just be the first hike in a cycle, Kevin Warsh's statement after the meeting will be even more closely scrutinised than normal. With AI headlines a key driver of global equity market in the last 24 hours, tune in to today's podcast to hear Next Generation research analyst Enrico Chinello's view on the unfolding situation and what it means for investors.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (06:14) - AI - pacing the frontier?: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation
• (13:06) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

Markets are starting a pivotal week on the back foot, as AI-related stocks retreat following safety concerns raised by the chief executives of Anthropic and OpenAI. Investor sentiment has been further dampened by reports that OpenAI is not expected to go public this year. Meanwhile, oil prices are moving higher as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. Against this backdrop, attention is turning to a busy week for monetary policy, with markets bracing for interest rate hikes from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. In today’s episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his views on how much further oil prices could rise and where 10-year US Treasury yields may ultimately peak.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (01:02) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (06:13) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
• (08:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As we head towards the final quarter of 2026, investors face a shifting landscape where AI remains the key growth engine but market leadership is broadening beyond US technology. With volatility persisting and geopolitical risks still in focus, where might the best opportunities lie for investors positioning their portfolios for the year end?

In this episode, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Julius Baer’s Head of Research, Christian Gattiker, and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, to discuss their outlook for the markets for the year end. The conversation covers the evolving AI investment cycle and the broadening of equity market leadership, as well as the implications of US politics, Fed uncertainty, and ongoing Middle East tensions. They examine equity opportunities across regions and sectors globally, as well as their preferred positioning in fixed income. The conversation also covers the outlook for the US dollar, oil, and gold. And finally, there’s also a suggestion for investors about what not to do as they head towards 2027.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (00:44) - Setting the big picture for 2026 and beyond
• (02:13) - US market focus and the AI investment cycle
• (03:07) - China’s economic outlook and policy stance
• (04:18) - Japan: Rate hike expectations and yen dynamics
• (05:27) - Central banks, Middle East tensions, and inflation impact
• (07:28) - Portfolio positioning for year-end
• (08:26) - Broadening equity market leadership
• (10:21) - Fixed income opportunities and duration
• (11:58) - Currencies, gold, and oil outlook
• (13:49) - What investors should avoid now
• (14:22) - Key takeaways from Asia and global perspective
• (15:33) - Closing remarks
• (16:20) - Legal information

US and European bond yields rose sharply as investors priced in higher inflation amid this week's rise in oil prices. The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, but the increase in bond yields was truly global, weighing on global equities and precious metals. Despite the broader risk-off tone, AI-related investment remained a constructive theme, supported by Oracle’s results and Microsoft's data centre expansion plans. David Kohl, Chief Economist, discusses the ECB’s hawkish message and key considerations ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (06:46) - ECB and US inflation data: David Kohl, Chief Economist
• (15:03) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets remain under pressure as oil prices continue to climb, with Brent crude now trading above the psychologically significant USD 100 per barrel mark. Attention is firmly focused on today’s European Central Bank rate decision, where another hike is widely expected, as well as key US inflation data due later today and tomorrow. Against this backdrop, global government bond yields have risen to levels not seen in years. In today’s episode, we welcome Afonso Borges from our Fixed Income Research team. He shares his perspective on the US Treasury’s somewhat underwhelming buyback announcement and explains why he believes many of the concerns surrounding France’s fiscal outlook are already reflected in current market pricing.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (05:59) - US and European Government bond markets: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research
• (09:37) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, pushing inflation back into focus ahead of key US CPI and PPI releases later this week. Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and Canada intensified, while political uncertainty in Europe remained elevated following German state elections and continued debate over France’s fiscal outlook. In today’s show, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, shares his views on the energy market and explains why global oil supply remains more resilient than many investors fear. We also speak with Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, about rising political fragmentation across Europe and what it means for equity investors.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (00:15) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (07:45) - Energy update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
• (14:11) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
• (19:06) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns are pushing bond yields higher, and the result of Sunday's German state elections is weighing on sentiment in Europe. China bought the most gold in a month since 2023, and the Japanese yen is up to its strongest since February. Robust Chinese export growth comes ahead of ahead of President Xi's upcoming visit to the US this month. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about digital assets - not only what has driven their wild ride this year, but also what would be needed for them to recover more permanently.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (06:35) - Update on the digital assets market: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
• (11:01) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Equity markets reacted to the August US non-farm payrolls data on Friday, which surprised to the upside, leading traders to believe that a hike is now more likely from the Fed on 16 September. Treasury yields moved higher, and the Dow and the S&P 500 closed the day lower. The Nasdaq 100 however closed above the flatline on Friday as tech stocks received a boost from OpenAI. This optimism spread to Asian markets this morning, with tech stocks there in buoyant mood, despite renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, assesses rising Treasury yields and what investors should watch out for in the coming days, and also offers his technical view on the yen and Japanese equities after a remarkable week.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (01:10) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (07:32) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
• (11:55) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

Strong earnings, improving shareholder returns, corporate reforms, and continued AI-related demand have reinforced the case for Japanese equities. But with a stronger yen and policy normalisation underway, can Japan's momentum continue?

In this episode, Cheng Hin Saw, Head of Investment Specialists at Julius Baer, speaks with Louis Chua, Equity Research Analyst Asia, about the latest earnings season, the outlook for AI and the Japanese yen, opportunities beyond technology, and the structural drivers underpinning their constructive view on Japanese equities.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:13) - Key highlights of a strong earnings season
• (03:19) - Why does management guidance remain conservative
• (04:26) - A pickup in earnings revisions
• (05:25) - Has the dynamic between yen and Japanese equities changed?
• (07:14) - Why are we still positive on AI?
• (08:16) - Japan’s position in the AI ecosystem
• (09:00) - Opportunities beyond AI
• (10:00) - The big narrative shift
• (10:44) - Why we remain constructive on Japan

Markets received a boost from stronger-than-expected economic data in Switzerland and resilient activity across the eurozone. In the US, dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller helped push Treasury yields lower and supported risk assets. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed to their highest levels in weeks amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. In today’s show, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the outlook for the Japanese yen, gold and EUR/USD.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (07:34) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva
• (11:45) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Equity markets found their footing as oil prices and Treasury yields paused their recent rise, while US economic data and Fed commentary reinforced a resilient growth outlook. The Fed's Beige Book pointed to continued expansion, albeit with persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. Higher energy prices weighed on sentiment in Europe, while the yen strengthened on expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes. Gold gained after days of weakness on a weaker USD, and Asian equities were somewhat supported by renewed optimism around AI-driven chip demand. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, talks about the latest escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and whether oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (06:30) - Energy markets: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research
• (11:31) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Renewed fighting in the Middle East sent oil prices and bond yields higher yesterday as gold lost its lustre and equity markets retreated. Inflation data in the eurozone did not help matters, rising to 3.3% in August, up from 2.9% in July. Markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point hike from the ECB next week, and concerns are mounting about whether the Fed will also raise rates in September. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins the podcast to discuss the elevated yield levels, Kevin Warsh's messaging, and how he believes bond investors could best position themselves in the current environment.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (00:54) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (06:09) - Yields on the rise, fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income
• (10:20) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

Renewed US-Iran tensions impacted global markets yesterday, pushing oil prices higher and weighing on equities. Bond yields rose, with Japan’s 10-year bond yield actually hitting 3% this morning for the first time since 1996. Tesla gained 5.5%, making it the best performer in the S&P 500 yesterday. Today’s key economic releases include US ISM manufacturing data, but the highlight will undoubtedly be Friday’s closely watched jobs report. Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research analyst, joins today’s podcast to talk about how intensifying competition in the AI space, particularly from lower-cost Chinese models, is driving AI token prices down, andwhat it all means for investors.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (05:55) - AI competition from China: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research
• (11:33) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, markets have repriced expectations for US monetary policy, with traders now assigning a 60% probability to a rate hike at the Fed's mid-September meeting. Meanwhile, Asian markets have started the week on the back foot, although they have recovered somewhat from their session lows. In today's episode, Chief Economist David Kohl discusses the outlook for US interest rates and the implications for investors. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his market perspectives and highlights the most compelling opportunities from a technical analysis standpoint.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:44) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (06:03) - Jackson Hole comments: David Kohl, Chief Economist
• (09:41) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
• (13:08) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

With yields at historically attractive levels and the yield curve offering attractive opportunities, fixed income is drawing renewed attention from investors seeking both income and capital preservation. But is the short end of the curve really as appealing as it seems—and what should investors know about the risks and rewards?

In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video at Julius Baer, is joined by Roman Frey, Head of CIO Office Global Fixed Income and voting member of the Fixed Income Investment Committee. Together, they explore why fixed income deserves a place in every portfolio, the importance of duration, credit risk, and liquidity, and how macroeconomic factors and central bank policy shape the opportunity set. The conversation covers the dynamics of the primary and secondary bond markets, the role of market technicals, and why short-dated bond strategies may offer a compelling alternative to cash and money market funds. Roman also discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve’s evolving communication style under Kevin Warsh, the practicalities of managing strategic cash, and why now may be a particularly attractive time to lock in yields.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:28) - Is fixed income really boring?
• (04:39) - Understanding duration and credit risk
• (06:53) - Liquidity and the importance of the primary market
• (10:08) - Macroeconomic factors and central bank policy
• (12:40) - Market technicals and the impact of supply and demand
• (14:03) - Hyperscalers and the shape of new bond issuance
• (16:31) - Cash versus bonds—what investors should consider
• (20:34) - The Fed’s new communication style and implications for investors
• (23:08) - Is short duration the right approach now?
• (25:27) - What makes short-dated bond strategies attractive?
• (28:28) - Managing short-dated bonds: hold to maturity or switch?
• (29:48) - Risk and return trade-offs in short-dated strategies
• (32:21) - Investment horizon and the role of strategic cash
• (34:51) - Yield curve steepness and the roll-down effect
• (36:16) - Is now a good time to invest in bonds?
• (38:23) - Closing and legal information

NVIDIA added USD 442 billion to its market capitalisation yesterday, with gains spreading beyond chipmakers into software and cybersecurity stocks amid strong earnings releases. Political uncertainty and debt concerns weighed on French markets ahead of the country's first presidential debate yesterday evening. A two-year Japanese government bond auction saw relatively weak demand amid growing expectations of Bank of Japan tightening next month. Reports suggest Venezuela may leave OPEC, potentially weakening the organisation's influence. The focus today is on Kevin Warsh's highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech. What can we learn from past speeches by Fed presidents at Jackson Hole? Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the USD debasement trade and what he is seeing in markets amid widespread claims surrounding the theme.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (07:06) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva
• (11:17) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Markets traded largely sideways ahead of the earnings release from NVIDIA, the world’s most valuable company by market capitalisation. After the US market close, the company once again exceeded expectations, delivering stronger-than-anticipated guidance and sending its shares more than 4% higher in after-hours trading. Elsewhere, US inflation data came in slightly above forecasts, prompting a modest rise in Treasury yields. In today’s episode, we welcome Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, to discuss the outlook for the copper market, the key forces shaping supply and demand, and where prices could be heading next.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (05:47) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
• (10:03) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets found their footing yesterday despite an intensification of US sanctions on Iran, as traders focused on the shift towards economic rather than military pressure and the resulting decline in oil prices. Equity markets generally moved higher, led by gains in technology shares, while Germany’s stronger-than-expected economic growth figures added to the constructive backdrop. Attention now turns to today’s US inflation data and Nvidia’s earnings report, two events that could shape the market direction in the days ahead. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his views on Treasury buybacks, fiscal policy and the outlook for US yields and the US dollar, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, assesses whether recent moves in bond markets are beginning to influence equity valuations.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (06:58) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research
• (11:20) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research
• (15:19) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite ended Monday's trading session lower as chip stocks faltered, while the Dow Jones gained 0.25% on the day. It was a similar story in Asia this morning as investors digested the potential ramifications of 'Operation Economic Outcast', while awaiting not only Nvidia's and Marvell Technology's results and US PCE data tomorrow, but also a highly anticipated speech by Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole this Friday.

Damien Ng, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to provide his take on the good news last week from the Moderna/Merck cancer trials. Tune in to the podcast to find out why he believes that innovation-driven healthcare remains one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (07:07) - How personalised vaccines could transform cancer treatment: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research
• (12:23) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content