The team welcomes Brendan La Cerda, a Moody’s Analytics colleague and U.S. fiscal policy expert, to unpack the implications of a Trump or Harris victory. The divergent outcomes for Asia are significant in this too-close-to-call race.

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The team welcome their colleague Heron Lim to discuss all things Hong Kong, including the implications of China’s plethora of stimulus announcements. Also in the spotlight are China’s poor company profits, Hong Kong’s housing market and fed rate cuts. Steve finally goes first with “what’s your stat” …and it’s a doozy. 

Today's Guest: Heron Lim, Moody's Analytics

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Is China putting all its eggs in one basket with its manufacturing led recovery? Households are struggling as property market moves south and youth unemployment remains painfully high. Steve is the pessimist of the group, while Harry and Katrina are more hopeful the third plenum in July will be “chockers” with reforms. 

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The Asia-Pacific economy has accelerated so far this year from a weak fourth quarter. But inflation is improving inconsistently across the region. And in fact, two central banks have raised interest rates recently. In this environment, who is an optimist and who is a pessimist? Steve and Katrina take one side as Stefan and Harry disagree. 

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In this episode, the team dives into the heart of China's latest economic stimulus policies. Harry is optimistic that this time is different, and households are finally getting direct support. Katrina, however, leads with her usual pessimism but tries to offset the negativity with a bad economist joke. Join us as we dissect whether China's new economic measures mark a genuine turning point or if caution should still prevail.

For more from the Moody’s Analytics team take a free trial to the Economic View. 

Related research:

https://www.economy.com/economicview/analysis/408914/AsiaPacific-Weekly-Highlights-and-Preview-4-October-2024

https://www.economy.com/economicview/analysis/408913/China-Chartbook-PMIs-Profits-and-Promises-of-Support

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Southeast Asia enjoyed resilience during the tightening cycle of monetary policy, but economy-specific differences remain critical. Moody’s economist and Southeast Asia expert Denise Cheok joins the team to delve into the details. Currency appreciation, surprise rate cuts, and the upcoming U.S. election keep the team on their toes. Steve is optimistic that inflation is “whipped.”

Today's Guest: Denise Cheok, Moody's Analytics

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Steve, Stefan and Harry jump into the everchanging world of global trade. The team explore recent trends in Asia, untangling the region’s interwoven supply chains and taking a deep dive into its diverse trade drivers. Looking to the future, the team give their best guess for how trade will evolve in an increasingly complex political environment. 

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Steve, Stefan and Harry are joined by Moody’s Analytics New Zealand economist Shannon Nicoll to discuss all the happenings in the Kiwi and Aussie economies. Hot on the heels of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting interest rates, the team explores what it means for the Kiwi economy and if there are lessons for the Reserve Bank of Australia across the ditch. Plus, the team examines how Australia’s tax cuts and cost-of-living supports threaten to stretch inflation's tail, pushing the prospect of rate cuts into next year.

Today's Guest: Shannon Nicoll, Moody's Analytics

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In this Olympic-sized episode, Steve, Katrina, Stefan, and Harry, along with Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi, tackle an eventful week in global markets. Katrina’s hopes for the podcast to come in under world record time are dashed as Mark and Stefan lead a marathon discussion on the complexities of yen carry trades and recent weak U.S. jobs data. As they come around the final bend, the team put a spotlight on the high-stakes U.S. election, try to win gold for snarky comments and setup round two to discuss the latest hurdles in China’s economy. 

Access Mark Zandi’s Assessing the Macroeconomic Consequences of Harris vs. Trump special study here: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=279dfa9e-8dde-4f3f-9954-f24a747730a7&app=eccafile

Follow real-time coverage of global indicators, events, and trends on Economic View at https://www.economy.com/economicview/  

Economic View provides real-time and in-depth macroeconomic analysis of the US and global economies. The service combines trusted analysis and award-winning forecasts from Moody's Analytics economists, with economic, demographic and financial data from multiple sources. Our comprehensive service enables users to quickly grasp the impact of economic events and trends.

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Katrina Ell struggles to get “cuts” into her vocabulary as she discusses with Moody’s Analytics colleagues Steve Cochrane and Stefan Angrick the outlook in APAC for interest rate cuts, which are likely by the end of this year. Timing will depend on the U.S. Fed’s rate path, the struggle to contain sticky inflation, and volatility of foreign exchange rates.

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Global trade is on the mend, but it’s not all smooth sailing. The economic impacts of trade in Asia are being reshaped by demand for IT products and China’s massive manufacturing push. For China, rising tariffs put its trade outlook “under the pump.” In this context, Steve, Stefan and Harry unwrap the emerging trade patterns for tech-based industries, commodities, and the intermediate goods that shape new emerging supply chains.

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A declining population and labor force does not necessarily spell doom for economies in Asia. But some deft policy making will be needed to ensure productivity growth and adequate investment to maintain economic growth. Steve and the team discuss with Stefan the research he has done on this topic relating to Japan and China. 

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In this week's episode, we delve into President-elect Trump's latest tariff announcement. We explore the economic ramifications, the ripple effects on global trade relationships, and what it might tell us about future tariffs. Steve and Harry go back and forth (and not just on the squash court) discussing how China might respond. Meanwhile, Katrina doesn’t miss a (drum) beat, highlighting the uncertainty tariffs stir up for businesses. 

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Additional tariffs could hit Asia hard, particularly in China. The team unwraps the multiple effects on Asia of President-elect Trump’s policy proposals. Even if new tariffs on trade with other economies in Asia are modest, none will escape the growth, inflation and supply-chain impacts. 

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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We introduce our new title, Global Economy Unwrapped, where we will delve into more global topics starting with today’s episode. Hosts Steve Cochrane, Katrina Ell, and Gaurav Ganguly are joined by Moody’s Analytics Deputy Chief Economist Cris deRitis to discuss how President Trump is shaking up the status quo and bringing anxiety and uncertainty to the global economy. They explore how uncertainty is manifesting in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index gets a mention, Gaurav sneaks in an economist joke, and Cris can’t hold back his competitive nature.

To access Gaurav's piece Uncertain Times, click here

To learn more about the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, click here

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It’s been an eventful two weeks since our last episode. We kick things off with a recap of what’s happened and a deep dive into the latest industrial production trends across the region and around the world. The conversation quickly turns to U.S. tariffs on China. Are there more to come? What can we glean from China's response? And how will tariffs shake up the manufacturing landscape?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Buckle up as we delve into the global car market. Joined by our auto market gurus Mike Brisson and Shannon Nicoll, the team explores the twists and turns of supply chain challenges, the accelerating rise of China as an automotive powerhouse, and the speed bumps of tariffs and trade barriers. The conversation is sure to rev your economic engines.

To read more on this topic: Australia Fourth-Quarter Used-Vehicle Price Report: A Bump in the Road 

Auto Prices: Upward Momentum Continues Through Year’s End

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The team runs through the Asia-Pacific outlook for 2025, highlighting some of the risks flying under the radar. Harry hopes that Beijing can ‘crowbar’ household wallets open as policymakers look to counter the impacts of looming tariffs. Meanwhile, Katrina is worried about the tight Aussie labor market, Steve is optimistic about the region’s prospects this year, and Stefan manages to sneak in an Austin Powers reference. 

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Steve, Stefan and Harry discuss the critical role of semiconductors in Asia’s economy, driving investment in Taiwan and South Korea with some spinoffs in Southeast Asia. Decoupling and reshoring policies in the U.S., Europe, Japan and China, however, will complicate supply chains and shift investment elsewhere. Talent retention will be key to Asia’s future role in the industry. With the team spread across various global locations, so too vary their holiday plans from Australia’s beaches to a KFC Christmas dinner in Japan. 

Read more about the papers that were mentioned here: Why Chipmakers Are in No Rush to Leave Asia, China Chartbook: Policy Pivot, Developed Asia Outlook 2025: Diverging Fortunes

Asia's Economy Unwrapped team would like to wish you a happy holiday. We will return with new episodes January 14th!

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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The team welcomes their colleague Dave Chia to help us unwrap the economic implications of Korea's recent political drama. Although they seem limited at the moment, political change could be on the horizon. Thus, fiscal and foreign policy may shift with the political upheaval at home, compounding the already rising global uncertainties.

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With new euro zone data releases, and an ECB decision to boot, there is plenty to talk about. Gaurav and team roll up their sleeves and do what they do best: analyze the numbers.  Gaurav and Kamil kick off with a deep dive into our economic forecasts for Europe, unpacking the key assumptions and highlighting the downgrades made since Donald Trump’s election as U.S. President. They examine the role of tariffs, uncertainty, and other contributing factors, while also acknowledging the huge variations across European countries. The team then turns to the latest data and explores how significantly momentum has been boosted by stockpiling ahead of U.S. tariffs. Finally, the group reacts to the latest euro zone inflation data and the ECB’s recent rate decision. Has the central bank reached the end of its easing cycle—or is there more to come?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Steve and Stefan discuss with their colleague Jesse Rogers the complex role of China in the Mexican economy and in Mexico’s exports to the U.S. Jesse shares his research showing China’s important role in Mexico’s domestic economy, particularly for autos, transportation and other infrastructure-related goods. But China plays less of a part in Mexico’s U.S.-bound export trade, unlike, say, in Vietnam, where Chinese and other foreign firms assemble goods for export to the U.S. market. Steve and Stefan are following closely the Taiwan economy, one of the strongest in Asia right now. And Jesse suggests some alternatives to Bad Bunny if one is into salsa and Latin music. 

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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The Moody’s Analytics team welcomed their colleague and fellow economist Sarah Tan to share their thoughts on the so-called Liberation Day tariffs only hours after they were announced. Tariffs are broader and more aggressive than anticipated, with Asia’s export-dependent economies in the firing line. Steve led with his usual optimism, but Katrina and Sarah persuaded that Beijing’s stimulus would be insufficient to insulate China from exports coming under siege. 

For related research on Tariffs and the Asia-Pacific economy, click the links below
Asia-Pacific Economies Brace for More Tariffs and More Trouble

Navigating Trump Turbulence

APAC Economic Outlook: Facing the Trade Winds

China Chartbook: Another Plan to Boost Consumption

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As the European economy faces yet another turbulent period, Gaurav Ganguly hosts Andrew Hunter, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, and Kamil Kovar in a riveting discussion on the cyclical and structural issues confronting the continent and whether it can overcome these obstacles. The team delves into the recurring crises that Europe has faced, from the pandemic to the invasion of Ukraine, and how these events have dealt a blow to growth. Europe is still striving to recover, and just as signs of a rebound were emerging, policy uncertainty related to Trump's tariffs now threatens to derail the economy once again, raising recession risks. Barbara shares her insights on structural challenges, particularly focusing on Germany's economic woes and the impact of high energy costs. Andrew highlights the stark differences in growth rates across European countries, while Kamil explores labour market dynamics, the rise in savings rates, and their implications for consumer spending. The team also praises Europe’s resilience and ability to come together during a crisis to bail out the economy. Tune in to hear the team's perspectives on whether Europe can overcome the current challenges and what the future holds for the euro zone economy.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Moody’s Analytics economists Gaurav Ganguly and Steve Cochrane welcomed their colleagues Alfredo Coutino, Juan Pablo Fuentes and Jesse Rogers for a review of the Latin American economy. The conversation provides a general economic overview and a more in-depth analysis of the three largest economies: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. They discussed the economic outlook, potential risks, the role of China in the region and the prospects and limitations of the oil sector.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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As the European Commission unveils its ReArm EU plan, Barbara Teixeira Araujo joins Andrew, Kamil, and Gaurav in trying to unpack the real implications of this big-bucks €800 billion package. The main question that remains unanswered is, “Is this really Europe’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment?” Barbara seems unconvinced, and the team raises some key questions about the feasibility of the plan, ranging from the lack of fiscal space to the rise in government yields, the risk this poses to market stability, and the potential crowding out of private investment. On a brighter note, Kamil welcomes the German government’s U-turn on fiscal policy, which he thinks represents a seismic shift for Europe. At the end, the team dwells on the probability of the euro dethroning the dollar as the global reserve currency (spoiler alert: not very high!).

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As China's top officials gather for the annual Two Sessions in Beijing, we discuss the challenges facing China’s economy, its goals for the year and the parallels to Japan’s stagnation through the 1990s. We also take stock of the latest tariff announcements and give a crack at guessing where they’ll end this year. 

To listen to the Demographics Are Not Destiny episode, click here

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Andrew Hunter and Kamil Kovar, both Senior EMEA Economists at Moody’s Analytics, join Gaurav Ganguly as The Global Economy Unwrapped moves its focus to Europe. The team fact-check two of the U.S.’s key complaints: the EU’s trade position with the U.S. and Europe’s low defense spending. They conclude that the complaints are largely unreasonable on both fronts, but this does not mean that the EU will get off lightly. Kamil explains that the EU could easily provide the funds to support the war effort in Ukraine, while Andrew and Gaurav debate whether another crisis would be good for the EU.

Related Research: Gaurav Ganguly’s The New Realpolitik. 

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Gaurav, Barbara and Kamil welcome David Muir as they discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the potential economic benefits of the three trade deals recently signed by the U.K. government. While the U.K.-U.S. deal looks quite narrow, the trade agreement with India is much broader in scope and might yield some long-term benefits. Crucially, the EU-U.K. deal isn’t a game changer—but it does represent a partial reset in economic relations and a positive step in the right direction. Unfortunately, none of the three deals will massively boost the U.K. economy, nor help avoid tax rises in the autumn. 

In the second half of the episode, the team moves on to talk about the prospects for a U.S.-EU deal, and the conclusion is that it’s still difficult, even though it looks more plausible now than it did in early April. Does this mean that reciprocal tariffs take effect in July, or that the EU will have no choice but to retaliate against U.S. tariffs? 

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Hot on the heels of the U.S.-China tariff truce, the team chat about all things trade. The episode kicks off with a trip down memory lane, as Steve tries to place the current chaos in the history of economic moments-in-time. Harry then gives the lay of the land following the weekend’s negotiations, and Katrina and Stefan explore signs of rerouting in the latest export data from China. 

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Gaurav and the team discuss the newly signed U.S.-U.K. trade deal and whether the de-escalation in global trade tensions will continue. The conversation then turns to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Andrew is skeptical that the recent U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal will bring a lasting ceasefire any closer, Gaurav and Barbara take stock of Europe’s energy security, while Kamil weighs in on the economic and fiscal impact of higher European defense spending.

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With the Australian election upon us, David Robertson, Chief Economist at Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, joins the team to discuss the outlook. Productivity is front of mind, having languished for the last few years amid only timid economic reforms; a clear-cut election victory could provide the political capital to change that. Elsewhere, the RBA’s priorities are shifting from taming inflation to supporting growth. With that in mind, David is confident the board will cut in May. How much more easing we get will depend on the damage President Trump’s tariffs do to the global and local economies. 

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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David Muir joins Gaurav and Andrew for a deep dive into the UK. The conversation takes a fiscal turn very quickly as the three dissect public finances and ponder the potential for tax rises in coming years. Trump tariffs add to the problem as the UK will not be able to rely on tailwinds  from the global economy. The possibility of meeting Labour’s manifesto pledge of achieving the fastest rate of growth in the G7 feels very low. David and Andrew think that income and corporate tax rises will be hard to avoid in coming years, and Gaurav immediately brings up the Beatles.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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This bonus episode is a recent webinar led by our Chief Economist, Mark Zandi. It includes many colleagues on the Moody’s Analytics economics team from around the world. The webinar reviews the many U.S. and global ramifications of the emerging U.S. tariff policy. 

This conversation features expert input from leading economists, including Mark Zandi, Cris deRitis, Steve Cochrane, Gaurav Ganguly, Marisa DiNatale, Dante DeAntonio, Mark Hopkins, Alfredo Coutino, and Justin Begley.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Steve and Stefan speak one-on-one about their expectations as trade negotiations ramp up between the U.S. and many of its Asia-Pacific trading partners. So far, however, the U.S. and China are not on speaking terms; Asian financial markets have stumbled, and currencies of Asia’s developing economies have depreciated against the dollar. There is much uncertainty about the near term, but Steve and Stefan express some optimism for the long-term resilience of the APAC economies. 

Click here to read more on the paper written by Katrina and Stefan

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Against a rapidly evolving policy backdrop, Gaurav and the team attempt to unpack the implications of the U.S. “Liberation Day” tariffs on the European economy. Kamil sets out why the hit to euro zone growth from the initially announced tariffs could be bad, but not necessarily catastrophic. But regardless of the exact path of U.S. tariffs, the team agrees that the lasting impact on confidence and investment suggests recession risks have increased. The team also discuss how the EU could negotiate a deal to remove tariffs or retaliate with duties of its own, and why the EU may be wary of taking its Anti Coercion Instrument ‘bazooka’ out of the closet.

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Fresh off the heels of a U.S.-China trade truce reached in London, Ambassador Kurt Tong , Managing Partner at The Asia Group joins the Asia podcast crew. The team discusses the implications of the chaotic U.S. policy and how China and the broader region are readjusting to the dramatic shifts. Steve and Kurt sneak in some baseball references. Go Phillies!

Guest: Kurt Tong, Managing Partner at The Asia Group

Read more from Kurt Tong here

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Steve, Katrina and Gaurav welcome Karl Godderis, the CEO of EUROCHAM in Malaysia for an in-depth conversation about the expanding trade relationship between the EU and Southeast Asia. While tariffs are not an issue, both sides must face the EU’s regulatory environment. Katrina and Gaurav also say goodbye and thanks to Steve on the eve of his retirement. 

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Gaurav, Kamil, and Barbara return for a timely discussion on the rising risks of recession in Europe. They begin by unpacking four major threats currently weighing on the region’s outlook. Gaurav opens with an analysis of the Israel-Iran conflict and its potential economic spillovers, including developments in oil markets. Kamil follows with a look at the implications of an escalating trade war, while Barbara explores the growing challenge of global fragmentation. The trio also touches on the broader theme of global financial instability and its role in shaping downside risks.

In the final segment, the conversation turns to how they assess the probability of a European recession. While their views differ slightly, all agree that the outlook has grown increasingly fragile, with recession risks at even odds at best. 

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan dissect the shock loss of the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition in Japan’s upper house elections. Cost-of-living woes and anti-foreign rhetoric dominated the campaign. So, is Japan catching the populism bug for good? Then it’s on to the U.S. trade deal blitz across Asia, from Tokyo to Manila to Hanoi. Equity markets are cheering, but are these deals anything more than smoke and mirrors? Finally, the team tackles the big question: is the trade chaos behind us, or just getting started?

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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After another flurry of U.S. tariff announcements, Gaurav and team unpack what it all means for Europe. As the clock ticks toward the new August 1 deadline, the prospect of an EU-U.S. deal looks touch-and-go, while the team also debate whether the EU is more likely to try and fight higher U.S. tariffs with retaliatory measures of its own. Although recent data suggest European economies have held up surprisingly well amid ongoing trade tensions, the downside risks appear to be rising once again.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Hot on the heels of President Trump’s latest tariff salvos, Stefan, Katrina and Denise break down the dizzying hikes and what they spell for Asia’s export-driven economies. No matter where tariffs eventually settle, the pain will ripple through the region. With most governments keeping their fiscal purse strings tight, central banks will be left holding the bag to keep economies afloat. And as the team half-jokes about signing up for social networks just to keep pace, one thing’s clear: this trade war is far from over, and the damage is adding up fast.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Gaurav and the team are joined by Ben Acton-Bond for a special episode on Germany. Ben explains how the German economy is likely to fare in the face of higher U.S. tariffs, amid mixed signals from the recent data. The team debates whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s plans to ramp up spending on infrastructure and defense will lift Germany out of its years-long slump or if a recession is still a significant risk, while Gaurav takes the opportunity to show off his extensive German vocabulary.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Andrew, Barbara, Denise, and Stefan join Gaurav for a festive deep dive into global manufacturing. They explore how China became the world’s workshop, climbing the value chain and reshaping the development model pioneered by Japan and South Korea. The conversation tackles China’s dominance in green tech, its implications for global investment, and whether emerging markets like Brazil and Vietnam can carve out their own niches. The team also asks if globalisation has gone too far, and what that means for the future of trade.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Professor Kazuto Suzuki of the University of Tokyo, and Director of the Institute of Geoeconomics joins GEU to discuss the future of globalisation. A wide-ranging discussion ensues which looks back over 2025 and looks ahead over the next few years. Globalisation remains an unstoppable force, despite fears that policy will be increasingly used as a weapon by countries to protect their geopolitical and economic interests. For the Global South in particular, the future continues to look bright. 

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Kamil, Stefan, Denise, and David join Gaurav to discuss the rationale for central bank independence and the goals of monetary policy. The discussion then turns to decisions made by central banks in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region after the pandemic, when central banks grappled with surging inflation.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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In the first episode of a mini-series on global manufacturing, Gaurav and the team take a sweeping look at the sector’s evolution—from its roots in the liberalization and technological breakthroughs of the late 20th century to the geopolitical tensions shaping it today. They explore how different development models across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. have created distinct strengths and vulnerabilities, and how China’s rise—accelerated by its entry into the WTO in 2001—and recent headwinds have reshaped the global landscape. The conversation then turns to the changing nature of supply chains, the increasing irrelevance of the WTO, and the impact of shifting global consumption patterns. Finally, they examine the modern tech frontier—from semiconductors to clean tech—and the new geopolitics of manufacturing, including Europe’s energy shock and the rise of Chinese EVs.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Gaurav, Sarah, and Denise dive into the latest run of data out of ASEAN, where frontloading has helped prop up growth in the first half of the year. But with U.S. tariffs finally kicking in from August, the team weighs the risks to the region’s second-half outlook. Inflation remains moderate and within central bank targets, prompting a wave of monetary easing amid a weaker U.S. dollar. Still, growth forecasts have been slashed across much of the region. The team also unpacks the concept of output gaps and what they reveal about ASEAN’s trajectory in the years to come.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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Brittany Merollo joins the team to discuss France's ongoing political shake-up and the appointment of a new prime minister. They assess the implications for the 2026 budget, the fading prospects for fiscal consolidation, and France’s subdued growth outlook. Before they get into France, Barbara, Kamil, and Gaurav unpack the Eurozone’s latest growth figures, exploring how frontloading boosted first-half performance and what that means for the second half. There is some upside for investment which is now expected to grow modestly rather than contract, but it contrasts with weakening prospects for consumer spending. They also touch upon the diverging trends in confidence indicators, with progress in the euro zone’s outsize services sector reversing, while manufacturing confidence continues to recover.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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With frontloading fading and trade on shaky ground, Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan sift through Asia-Pacific’s latest export figures for signs of a slowdown. China’s manufacturing PMI offers little comfort; soft across the board and especially grim on the jobs front. Over in Japan, a surge in rice prices is keeping inflation sticky, but wage growth isn’t playing ball. So why won’t the BoJ hike? The team also dives into China’s flirtation with deflation, a Thai economy on edge, and why Southeast Asia’s political unrest—from Jakarta to Bangkok—is about more than just the headlines. Plus: chips and investment pledges are shaking up trade talks, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meetings spark questions about whether China, India and Russia are really turning a new page or just putting on a show.

Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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