Discover how to use critical thinking to tear complex issues down to their simple basics and have productive conversations with friends and family about any topic under the sun.
This week, Stefan and Scott wade back into current events to talk about the war between Russia and Ukraine. But, unlike seemingly everyone on social media, we aren't here to tell you what to think. Instead, we give you some tools to analyze the deluge of information and reach your own, honest conclusion.
Is Putin a madman hellbent on nuking the world, or is Ukraine's friendliness towards the west threatened Russia's security? After listening to this episode, you won't need Twidiots to tell you what to think. You'll learn to use models such as probabilistic thinking, circle of competence, and reversibility, to decide for yourself.
As always, we're building a community around Mentally Unscripted. So, share this episode with your friends and interact with us at MentallyUnscripted.com.
And remember, the conclusion you reach is less important than the process you follow to get there.
* “When goods do not cross borders, soldiers will.” ― Frederic Bastiat
Mental Models
* Pick your trusted sources
* Probabilistic thinking
* Heuristics
* Long-Tail Risks
* Past performance is not a predictor of future performance
* Don’t let a good crisis go to waste
* Incentives matter
* Circle of competence
* Accountability
* Reversibility
* Second-order consequences
* Compound decisions
* Decision nexus
* Short-term vs long-term thinking
* Competency crisis
Top Takeaways
* We need to learn how to navigate through an information war.
* Heuristics are useful shortcuts or rules of thumb to help us make decisions. To use them effectively, you must understand when your heuristics are wrong.
* We don’t need to consider every last bit of information. Our models must, however, incorporate the information most critical to reaching a strong conclusion.
Comments or Questions on this episode? Join the conversation at the Mentally Unscripted Substack.Engage with Stefan and Scott on the Twitter thought control machine. Scott is also on Instagram and rants and raves on his blog, Strength and Reason.Feel free to email him with questions, comments, or suggestions.We're also on Odysee. Rumble is coming as soon as Scott gets off his butt and uploads the podcasts.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.mentallyunscripted.com
Ep56 – First Forays into Crypto and Did We Just Discover Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto? with Mental Supermodels
samedi 19 février 2022 • Durée 01:06:38
Note: We discuss investing, finance, and money in this episode. It’s simply four guys talking and no one should construe anything in this episode as investment, financial, money, legal, or any other kind of advice. By the way, Myron is not Satoshi . . . or is he?
This week, Stefan and Scott welcome back Myron and Jeremy of Mental Supermodels. This time we hash out our beginner experiences with cryptocurrencies. We cover how our thinking has evolved from our first forays into the world of digital currencies to where we stand today. This episode touches on investment philosophies, hits and misses in crypto, and mental models we use when dipping a toe in this dynamic and often times confusing world.
As always, we're building a community around Mentally Unscripted. So, share this episode with your friends and interact with us at MentallyUnscripted.com.
And remember, the conclusion you reach is less important than the process you follow to get there.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit
Ep47 – What Do Silicone Arms, the Lying Media, and Bitcoin Maximalism Have in Common? (and Paul's Stunning Announcement)
vendredi 10 décembre 2021 • Durée 01:09:06
In today's episode, we explore more exciting topics. From a story about a man with a fake arm trying to get a vaccine in Italy, we discuss what the end game for COVID-19 looks like and whether the people and organizations at the top of the world's hierarchies have a clear picture of the public health, economic, and financial landscape.
We also explore our shifting paradigms. It's no longer left vs. right or communist vs. capitalist. Instead, the events surrounding COVID-19 are waking people up to a new way of looking at the world, and those entrenched in positions of power and influence want to prevent us from changing our perspective.
Finally, we have an exciting discussion about the advantages and disadvantages of Bitcoin maximalism in terms of generalization versus specialization.
This episode was an exciting ride where we started with a topic and saw where it takes us. So, please sit back and enjoy it.
As always, we want to build a community around Mentally Unscripted. So, share this episode with your friends and interact with us at MentallyUnscripted.com.
And remember, the conclusion you reach is less important than the process you follow to get there.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit
Ep46 – Seeking Signal in the Mud Space of Privilege, Credibility, and NFTs
vendredi 3 décembre 2021 • Durée 01:21:48
In today’s episode, we explore some exciting topics. We start off by talking about the muddied world of tribal thinking and then discuss how tribal thought often overrides the concepts of authority and credibility.
That line of thought then carries us into the concept of financialization. Here we ask how a focus on stock price maximization has turned many American companies from global innovators into financial zombies. Then we revisit the idea of meritocracy and explore a new way of thinking about the concept of privilege. We close the episode with more talk about value and the NFT space.
This episode is an exciting ride where we started with a topic and saw where it takes us. Sit back and enjoy it.
As always, we want to build a community around Mentally Unscripted. So share this episode with your friends and interact with us at MentallyUnscripted.com.
And remember, the process you follow to reach a conclusion is more important than the conclusion itself.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit
Ep45 – Sisyphus and How COVID Changed the Nature of Work with Sara Causey
mercredi 24 novembre 2021 • Durée 33:24
Today’s guest is Sara Causey, the owner of Causey Consulting LLC and host of the Causey Consulting podcast. Sara’s experience consulting with firms of all sizes on their recruiting and staffing needs puts her in the unique position to see how COVID and our response to it are changing the nature of how we work.
Sara has excellent insights into our changing attitude towards work, from our desire to escape cubicle zombie nation to organizational insecurities that lead to micromanaging employees. Her advice will help you shape a career that will take you to the upper levels of your field with confidence, integrity, and nobility.
If 2020 and 2021 have you questioning the nature of how you earn a living, this is a must-listen episode.
Sara is friendly, engaging, and blunt, so we had an excellent time talking to her.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit
Ep44 – Just Get the Shot Already: The Supreme Court and Vaccine Mandates with Patrick MacFarlane
mardi 16 novembre 2021 • Durée 01:09:09
There’s a lot of talk about President Joe Biden’s announced COVID-19 vaccination requirements for employees of private businesses but there’s been little talk of whether he has the authority to do so. In this episode of Mentally Unscripted, Paul and Scott welcome Patrick MacFarlane of Liberty Weekly and the Libertarian Institute to discuss the legal issues of Biden's COVID-19 vaccine mandate.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit
Ep43 – How to Never Argue Again (Unless You Want To) and a Free Gift Announcement
jeudi 11 novembre 2021 • Durée 49:45
Our intention at Mentally Unscripted is to bring you better tools to improve your engagement with others. It’s not an easy task in 2021, where Tribalism and media-driven polarization make having productive conversations even harder.
* False Consensus Effect: Our tendency to overestimate how much others share our opinions.
Top Takeaways
* Having a passion for something is good, but we can’t let it push us into having angry arguments.
* Good arguments are reasoned discussions that help you share and learn new ideas. They don’t start with a conclusion then seek out facts. They seek out facts then make a judgment.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit
Ep42 – How to Stop Fearing the Decentralized Tomorrow (crossover with Mental Supermodels)
vendredi 5 novembre 2021 • Durée 01:18:20
Myron and Jeremy from Mental Supermodels join Scott and Paul to discuss decentralization and the big questions facing us in the future. What is decentralization? Will we continue moving toward a decentralized world and what will that world look like? What are the factors holding back our move to decentralization and how we can drive mass adoption of the decentralized tomorrow?
* Twentieth-century technologies were centralizing. Twenty-first century technology is decentralizing.
* Decentralization can take many forms from geography to capital.
* We’re accustomed to hierarchical thinking. Decentralization breaks down barriers created by hierarchical systems and pushes control down to the lowest levels of the system. But the entities at the top of the hierarchy may be hesitant to surrender control. At the bottom, people may be fearful of having to take on the additional responsibility of decentralization.
* Decentralization can have profound effects on most aspects of our lives from how we work and live to how we communicate to how our morals shape our view of the world.
Engage with Scott and on the Twitter thought control machine.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit
Ep41 – So What? The Tyranny of Merit and Everyone Gets a Participation Trophy
mercredi 27 octobre 2021 • Durée 01:07:44
Is a system based on individual ability or achievement ruining society by creating a feeling of hubris in society's winners and resentment in its losers? In Mentally Unscripted episode 41, Paul and Scott review The Tyranny of Merit: What's Become of the Common Good? by Michael J. Sandel. In that book, the author claims that a merit-based system is destroying the common good.
* According to the author, western society is struggling because our culture of meritocracy is destroying the common good. Those who succeed have a sense of hubris and look down on those who are less successful, and the less successful resent those who succeed. Resentment against the elites is causing a rise in populism.
* On the other hand, aristocracies are less prone to hubris and resentment because people understand that their success is attributable to luck.
* The common good requires society to balance justice, goodness, and progress.
* The author's argument is weak because he doesn't take disconfirming evidence into account in his analysis, and he focuses almost exclusively on language from politicians to prove his point.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit
Ep40 – Anarchy, Chaos, and Emergent Order with Jamie Cain
mardi 26 octobre 2021 • Durée 01:08:16
Paul and Scott welcome Jamie Cain to Mentally Unscripted episode 40. Not only does this episode feature three incredibly manly beards, but it also includes an excellent conversation about anarchism and voluntaryism. And Paul tries to get in touch with his emotions . . . but they were screening their calls.Resources
* Fear of missing out or letting your emotions drive you into a market often leads to losses. Having a model or strategy in place to sidestep emotional decisions is a must for all investors.
* The crypto culture is a driving force to achieving self-sovereignty. The community driven ecosystem surrounding crypto has attracted innovative people.
* Crypto’s value is in bringing value to the end consumer by cutting out the middleman.
* Because you have success at something once doesn’t mean you’re an expert.
Feel free to email him with questions, comments, or suggestions.
We're also on Odysee. Rumble is coming as soon as Scott gets off his butt and uploads the podcasts.
Here’s how to have stimulating conversations on blistering hot topics without fighting.
It's easier than you think.
Download How to Never Argue Again (Unless you Want To) at Mentally Unscripted and discover the secret "Go Meta" approach that makes any topic fair game.
It's FREE (for now) and worth hundreds in therapy.
* When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail
* Immediate results vs remote results
* Transparency vs. black box
* Recency bias
* Opportunity costs/tradeoffs
* State of denial
* The best way to combat a bad idea is with a good idea
* Capture
* Audience
* Regulatory
* Unintended consequences
* Second-level thinking
* Open systems vs. Closed systems
* Specialization vs. Generalization
* High stakes decisions
* Open-Mindedness / Lattice Work of Mental Models lead to Innovation
* Tribalism - Costs of going against your tribe
* Fragility
* Marginal utility
* Complexity invites regulatory capture
* Tradeoffs
* Sunk Costs
* Skin in the game
* Simplify complex ideas
* Feynman Learning Technique
Top Takeaways
* Recency bias and propaganda make us believe the government can solve everything, but we must accept that it can't. We must learn to live with some things. It's not clear that our leaders have a clear end goal in mind regarding our COVID-19 response.
* Traditional media outlets are closed systems that only offer a narrow range of disagreement. They're seeing a danger from decentralized media and open-system media.
* The way governments, businesses, and individuals react to situations is changing. We're moving away from traditional left/right, capitalism/communism dichotomies to centralized/decentralized or open systems/closed systems.
* Generalists have more resilience than specialists. In the case of crypto, generalization is superior to specialization (maximalization) in the current world environment.
Here’s How to have stimulating conversations on blistering hot topics without fighting.
It's easier than you think.
Download How to Never Argue Again (Unless you Want To) at Mentally Unscripted and discover the secret "Go Meta" approach that makes any topic fair game.
It's FREE (for now) and worth hundreds in therapy.
* Tribalism has led us to judge credibility based on who the person is and what team they’re on. This leads to appeals to authority and forgetting to ask the critical question of how much credibility the authority has. Does each tribe live in its own reality and have those realities reach a point where they can’t mix? And do we give authorities a pass when they’re members of our tribe?
* It’s a fallacy to think that the policies of the U.S. Government, the most significant, most powerful government in history, don’t impact our economy.
* We’ve become more focused on financial incentives rather than creating value to improve the world.
* We think about success in terms of a single generation, and doing so raises many questions about privilege. But what is privilege exactly, and how much do we need to think about. And does our view of privilege change if we look at success as a slow and steady multi-generational process rather than a meteoric, single-generation rise from rags to riches?
* NFTs are a new product many in the crypto world think is the next big thing. But is there any value in NFTs, and from where does the value come?
Engage with Scott and Paul on the Twitter thought control machine.
How to have thrilling conversations on blistering hot topics without fighting…
It’s easier than you think.
Download How to Never Argue Again (Unless you Want To) at Mentally Unscripted and discover the secret “Go Meta” approach that makes any topic fair game.
It’s totally FREE (for now) and worth hundreds in therapy.
* The workforce today is more empowered than it has been in years. Our response to COVID-19 has made employers and employees realize that everyone doesn’t need to be packed into an office to work effectively. One of the downsides for the employer, and arguably an advantage for the employee, is the employer has to learn to trust its employees.
* Some employers don’t want to give up micromanaging their employees. As a result, they try to construct a digital panopticon to control their employees no matter where they are working. But good employees are savvy and won’t tolerate such monitoring.
* The observer effect can cause employees to underperform because of the anxiety of thinking their being watched.
* Freelancing websites can offer benefits for people who are just getting started in a freelancing career, but they lose their advantages as people gain experience.
* Don’t be afraid to fire a bad client. Establish the rules of engagement upfront, and don’t be scared to cut ties with any client who doesn’t respect them.
* We must accept that life won’t turn out the way we want. Toxic positivity and toxic optimism can prevent us from preparing for the inevitable bad day. We can’t “cheat the system.”
Engage with Scott and Paul on the Twitter thought control machine.
How to have thrilling conversations on blistering hot topics without fighting…
It’s easier than you think.
Download How to Never Argue Again (Unless you Want To) at Mentally Unscripted and discover the secret “Go Meta” approach that makes any topic fair game.
It’s totally free (for now) and worth hundreds in therapy.
* False Consensus Effect: Our tendency to overestimate how much others share our opinions.
* When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail
* Base rates
* Panic/fear states
* Illusion of control
* Inertia
* Define your terms
* Cost/benefit analysis
* Chilling effect
* Institutional capture
* Cognitive dissonance
Top Takeaways
* Claims that the Jacobson v. Massachusetts case establishes a legal precedent for compulsory COVID-19 vaccine are incorrect.
* In a truly deadly situation, compulsory vaccination wouldn’t be necessary because people would voluntarily take it.
* The theory of popular sovereignty, or the idea that government is based on the consent of the people, means that the government has only the powers granted to it by the Constitution.
* A doctor who performs a procedure without obtaining your informed consent is committing battery against the patient.
* Our legal system proceeds on the presumption of constitutionality.
* It’s problematic when we don’t or can’t ask what reasonable assessments have been done to warrant compulsory vaccinations. How much does the law take this question into account when deciding the legality of mandating vaccines?
Engage with Scott and Paul on the Twitter thought control machine.
How to have thrilling conversations on blistering hot topics without fighting…
It’s easier than you think.
Download How to Never Argue Again (Unless you Want To) at Mentally Unscripted and discover the secret “Go Meta” approach that makes any topic fair game.
It’s totally free (for now) and worth hundreds in therapy.
How to have thrilling conversations on blistering hot topics without fighting…
It’s easier than you think.
Download How to Never Argue Again (Unless you Want To) at Mentally Unscripted and discover the secret “Go Meta” approach that makes any topic fair game.
It’s totally free (for now) and worth hundreds in therapy.
How to have thrilling conversations on blistering hot topics without fighting…
It’s easier than you think.
Download How to Never Argue Again (Unless you Want To) at Mentally Unscripted and discover the secret “Go Meta” approach that makes any topic fair game.
It’s totally free (for now) and worth hundreds in therapy.
* Most people think of anarchy as Mad Max-style chaos, but anarchy is a state where hierarchies exist without institutional violence forcing people to live under specific rules. Voluntaryism is a term to describe anarchism without negative connotations. Fear of chaos is keeping people from moving toward a voluntaryist/anarchist society.
* Anarchism is a way to keep a group of people from building up into a corrupt power structure that uses violence to increase its power.
* A voluntaryist/anarchist society requires a high level of personal responsibility. Force and coercion are immoral, so all human interactions should be voluntary.
* Drone bombing an innocent family is not an excusable mistake. If it’s wrong for the individual, it’s wrong for the state. In a voluntary society, people are accountable for their actions.
* The non-aggression principle (NAP) is the idea that we shouldn’t hurt people or take their stuff.
Engage with Scott and Paul on the Twitter thought control machine.
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