Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Markus' Academy

Follow the link for the full summary: https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/us-treasury-yields

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Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/ZseTYM_A-60

Listen to part 1: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6HXuoDrSOO0dEmCxDyj0qf?si=49aaf2a925d346f0

Bill Dudley and Jonathan Payne joined Markus’ Academy for a two-part conversation on US Treasury yields. This is part 2. Dudley is a Senior Advisor to Princeton’s Griswold Center and a former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Payne is an Assistant Professor at Princeton.

A summary in three bullets:

● The expectations hypothesis holds in general throughout US history except in the period of 1965-1990, so that the risk premium on government debt was time-varying only then.

● The fact that Microsoft’s yields have widened with respect to other AAA corporates or sovereigns suggests growing default risks around AI, not that the government may be crowding out AI investment

● R* has drifted up, from zero after the financial crisis to 1.2% today (as projected by the Fed)

Timestamps:

[0:00] R* has moved up, and we only learn it through its works

[8:15] The expectations hypothesis and the stock-bond correlation

[23:12] Is the government crowding out AI investment?

[27:25] Hope is not a strategy

The views expressed by Jonathan's coauthors in the papers discussed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Follow the link for the full summary: https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/us-treasury-yields

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Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/SAUrOFLlK-kLink to

LIsten to part 2: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4aexS87sDsu6x2Fj8diXuM?si=kqTUF8zDQ-CzuTdOyCfyhw

Bill Dudley and Jonathan Payne joined Markus’ Academy for a two-part conversation on US Treasury yields. This part covered the history of American debt starting in minute 21:09. Before then it started with a refresher on basic concepts to study yield curves.

Dudley is a Senior Advisor to Princeton’s Griswold Center and a former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Payne is an Assistant Professor at Princeton.

A summary in three bullets:

● There is no Phillips-style curve between debt-to-GDP ratios (safe asset scarcity) and the government funding advantage. The simple relationship disappears when adjusting our prior measures of the funding advantage for the tax treatment of the government’s long-term debt during the Great Inflation

● The US government’s funding advantage was largest in the 19th century during the national banking era, not after WWII or Bretton Woods.

● Governments face financing trilemma, having to pick two among: (1) a large funding advantage, (2) a solvent banking sector, (3) a regime that inflates the debt away. The funding advantage is a reward for prudence

Timestamps:

[00:00] Today’s yields are not high by historical standards

[11:52] Fiscal-monetary interactions

[22:38] The history of America’s debt

[34:30] The national banking era was a stablecoin regime

[41:15] The funding advantage is a reward for prudence

The views expressed by Jonathan's coauthors in the papers discussed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/ai-for-economic-theorists-and-mathematicians

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/

Pietro Ortoleva and Fedor Sandomirskiy joined Markus' Academy for a mini-series on AI for economic theorists and mathematicians. This is episode 4. Both are economic theorists at Princeton University.The value has shifted from prompt engineering to context engineering: specify the task. Write a lazy two-line prompt, ask the same model that will do the work to expand it. Never let one session grade its own work, but run a separate verifier and, if the two disagree, a third instance as a judge. Fedor dissected the prompt OpenAI published for the cycle double cover proof - 64 agents, running at least eight hours, a supervisor eliminating agents that converge on the same route. And in his work adds tricks of his own.Timestamps:[0:00] Is prompt engineering still a thing?[3:40] Prompt expansion: let the model write the prompt[9:45] Prover versus verifier, LaTeX not PDF, and when to restart[16:43] Agent swarms, and AI proofreading

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/ai-for-economic-theorists-and-mathematicians

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Pietro Ortoleva and Fedor Sandomirskiy joined Markus' Academy for a mini-series on AI for economic theorists and mathematicians. This is episode 3. Both are economic theorists at Princeton University.An AI's intelligence and stamina are substitutes. A slightly shallower model that grinds all day often gets further than a deeper one you can only afford to run for twenty minutes. Pietro compared the models available today: their preference, narrowly, is GPT-5.6, since it has more stamina than Fable. Pietro also argues that agents are fundamental in empirical work, but that for theory the browser is still enough for brainstorming.Timestamps:[0:00] The frontier since June: Fable 5, GPT-5.6, Opus 5[4:13] Intelligence and stamina are substitutes[8:53] The verdict, and what to run on a Pro, $20, or free budget[11:10] Browser or agents?

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/ai-for-economic-theorists-and-mathematicians

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Pietro Ortoleva and Fedor Sandomirskiy joined Markus' Academy for a mini-series on AI for economic theorists and mathematicians. This is episode 2. Both are economic theorists at Princeton University.In this video, Fedor asks whether models can actually generate new ideas. In economic theory this is hard to settle because a model's quality is subjective, while in math a proof either holds or it does not. AI is poor at attribution, but superb at aggregation of knowledge.Timestamps:[0:00] Can models be creative, and why the evidence comes from math[2:20] The ten Erdős problems episode, and Terence Tao's ledger[5:19] The unit distance conjecture falls[8:44] Jacobian, cycle double cover, and what it means for theory

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/ai-for-economic-theorists-and-mathematicians

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Pietro Ortoleva and Fedor Sandomirskiy joined Markus' Academy for a mini-series on AI for economic theorists and mathematicians. This is episode 1. Both are economic theorists at Princeton University.In this first video, Pietro sets out where AI fits into theory research. Unlike mathematics, a theory paper does not set out to prove a stated conjecture; it searches for a fixed point between defensible assumptions, interesting statements, and proofs that certify them. AI changes the cost of each loop of that search. Pietro lists seven use cases for AI in theory, and argues that sketching is the most underused of them. On proofs, frontier models can now generate reliable proofs of the kind of model economists typically write. The higher-value uses are attack (a hostile referee hunting for weak steps), repair (which assumption rescues a false statement) and inspiration: even a wrong proof can point to the right route.Timestamps:[0:00] Introduction, and economic theory as a fixed point[5:12] Seven use cases, and why sketching is the most underused[8:46] Proofs: attack, repair, and inspiration[15:12] Extensions, microfoundations, simplifications

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/the-second-china-shock-implications

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For our latest episode, Brad Setser joined Markus’ Academy for a two-part conversation on the second China shock and the second coming of global imbalances. This video is the second part. Setser is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former official at the US Treasury and the Office of the US Trade Representative.Timestamps:[0:00] Europe sandwiched, Germany in the crosshairs[17:52] China’s imbalance will not fix itself[22:20] How Europe should act[39:00] Implications for the rest of Asia

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/the-second-china-shock-how-this-time

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For our latest episode, Brad Setser joined Markus’ Academy for a two-part conversation on the second China shock and the second coming of global imbalances. This video is the first part. Setser is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former official at the US Treasury and the Office of the US Trade Representative.

Timestamps:[00:00] Markus’ Introduction[05:17] China’s unprecedented surpluses[21:00] An export boom bolted to a stalled economy[35:11] This time the surpluses are not recycled[50:11] China’s statistical puzzles and the undervalued yuan

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/ai-and-messy-jobs

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For our latest episode, Luis Garicano joined Markus’ Academy to discuss his new book with Jin Li and Yanhui Wu, Messy Jobs. Garicano is a Professor at the London School of Economics and a former Member of the European Parliament.Timestamps:[02:43] Tasks are not jobs: the autonomy threshold[12:48] Three tiers of jobs, three kinds of AI impact[30:06] Hierarchies and which jobs will survive[46:33] The value of organization[1:00:57] Three tiers, three economies

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/neglected-risks-in-private-equity

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For our latest episode, Martin Schmalz joined us for a conversation on the neglected risks in private markets. Schmalz is a Professor of Finance, Economics, and Real Estate at Oxford's Saïd Business School.Timestamps:[05:24] Returns aren't what they used to be[15:25] Reported vs. realized returns[26:47] Diversification myths and concentration risk[37:00] Opaque fee structures[46:45] Liquidity, systemic, and agency risks

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/claude-code-for-applied-economists

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham joined Markus’ Academy for a mini-series on Claude Code for Applied Economists. This is the last episode of the 8 part series. Goldsmith-Pinkham is an Associate Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management and a Faculty Research Fellow at NBER. Through a replication of Jay Ritter’s results on post-IPO stock performance, Paul shared some best practices for verifying Claude Code’s work. Integrating with GitHub let him track the project as a chain of committed steps rather than one final output, and review Claude’s work one change at a time.Finally, Paul connected the project’s repository to Overleaf via GitHub (Dropbox works too), so that Claude can update figures and tables directly in one’s paper. The core principle: every number in a draft should come from the code, not from an AI’s memory.Timestamps:[0:00] Verification is the new bottleneck[6:30] Using GitHub to verify Claude’s output[38:35] How to give feedback[52:27] Integration with Overleaf for Collaboration

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/claude-code-for-applied-economists

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham joined Markus’ Academy for a mini-series on Claude Code for Applied Economists. This is episode 7 of 8. Goldsmith-Pinkham is an Associate Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management and a Faculty Research Fellow at NBER. In this episode, Paul explained how to think about autonomy, and risk when using Claude Code and other agentic AI tools, for example covering different types of permissions. Paul showed how containers and sandboxes, including Docker-based workflows and tools like Safe House, can give AI agents more autonomy while limiting potential damage. Paul also discussed OpenClaw-style bots, and introduced us to his own “Duncan Idaho” research assistant agent. Timestamps: [0:00] Permission types and an overview of agentic tools[11:37] Sandboxing with containers and Docker[35:43] OpenClaw and autonomous research agents

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/claude-code-for-applied-economists

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham joined Markus’ Academy for a mini-series on Claude Code for Applied Economists. This is episode 6 of 8. Goldsmith-Pinkham is an Associate Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management and a Faculty Research Fellow at NBER. In this episode, Paul explained Claude Skills: reusable instruction bundles that help Claude perform recurring tasks in a standardized way. He showed where Skills are stored, how global and project-level Skills differ, and then built a paper-summary Skill for seminar preparation. Paul also introduced community Skill packs such as “superpowers.”Timestamps:[0:00] What are Claude Skills?[7:33] Building a paper-summary Skill[21:50] Skill packs, “superpowers,” and cautions about overusing Skills

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/claude-code-for-applied-economists

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham joined Markus’ Academy for a mini-series on Claude Code for Applied Economists. This is episode 5 of 8. Goldsmith-Pinkham is an Associate Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management and a Faculty Research Fellow at NBER.In three different parts, Paul showed how Claude can support the writing side of research: 1. First, he showed how to create a personal style guide from your own papers. 2. Second, he showed how Skills can be used to develop a revision plan after receiving a referee report. He especially recommended Jukka Sihvonen’s Skill for Strategic Revisions. 3. Third, he shared some advice on how to use LLMs as editors and thinking partners rather than judgment outsourcers.Timestamps:[1:27] Developing a Style Guide[18:12] Using Skills for Referee Reports[35:37] Claude for Brainstorming and Editing[43:42] Summary

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/claude-code-for-applied-economists

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham joined Markus’ Academy for a mini-series on Claude Code for Applied Economists. This is episode 4 of 8. Goldsmith-Pinkham is an Associate Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management and a Faculty Research Fellow at NBER.Timestamps:[00:00] Intro[02:59] Building a mortgage panel from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data[07:52] DuckDB + Parquet for large-scale data work[11:47] Claude Code's planning mode and agent workflow[27:55] Harmonizing 18 years of mortgage data[42:01] Fintech lender classification and market-share trends

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/claude-code-for-applied-economists

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham joined Markus’ Academy for a mini-series on Claude Code for Applied Economists. This is episode 3 of 8. Goldsmith-Pinkham is an Associate Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management and a Faculty Research Fellow at NBER.Paul used Claude Code to scrape SEC EDGAR filings. Claude Code extracted the risk-factors mentioned in firms’ 10-K reports and built a structured DuckDB database to show how tariff-related risk disclosure became more frequent and more specific in recent years.Overall, this episode highlighted how to best work with Claude Code by planning and iterating on results. Paul turned messy filings into usable research data in just a few minutes.Timestamps:[1:26] Developing a plan to scrape 10K filings[12:40] Modifying the plan[18:05] Running the scraper and debugging[24:03] Which sectors mention tariffs the most?[26:32] Recap

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/claude-code-for-applied-economists

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham joined Markus’ Academy for a mini-series on Claude Code for Applied Economists. This is episode 2 of 8. Goldsmith-Pinkham is an Associate Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management and a Faculty Research Fellow at NBER.Paul showed how Claude Code dramatically shrinks the gap between a vague research idea and initial results. As an example, he used Claude Code to obtain and plot data on home ownership in the US. Claude Code found the relevant data from the Census, handled scraping issues, cleaned spreadsheets, generated the required scripts.Timestamps:[1:33] Starting from nothing[6:16] Agent spawning[13:20] Scraping tips[22:24] Plotting graphs[30:04] Results[35:20] Summing up

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/claude-code-for-applied-economists

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham joined Markus’ Academy for a mini-series on Claude Code for Applied Economists. This is episode 1 of 8. Goldsmith-Pinkham is an Associate Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management and a Faculty Research Fellow at NBER.Paul introduced Claude Code as a terminal-based AI coding assistant that can read files, write and run code locally, and accelerate research workflows. He explained his key principles for using these tools optimally, for example the importance of the context window and compaction.He contrasted Claude Code with the more sandboxed Cowork environment, and discussed other complementary tools like Ghostty, Zellij, and Oh My Zsh.Timestamps:[1:43] Series Overview[6:52] What is Claude Code / Cowork?[22:10] Installation and pricing[23:54] The context window[29:31] Privacy[31:18] Tips for getting started

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/data-centers-financing-the-ai-buildout

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For the latest episode of Markus’ Academy Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh presented his recent paper: Financing the AI Buildout: https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/svannieuwerburgh/papers/FinancingAIBuildout_03192026.pdfVan Nieuwerburgh is the Earle W. Kazis and Benjamin Schore Professor of Real Estate and Professor of Finance at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business.Timestamps:[04:32] Why AI changed the Economics of Data Centers[22:25] The changing ownership and financing of the AI buildout[38:20] The New Finance Architecture of the AI Buildout Transfers Risk and Increases Opacity[50:26] What could go wrong?

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/250-years-of-the-wealth-of-nations

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Ross Levine is the Booth Derbas Family/Edward Lazear Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and a Research Associate at NBER. Sandra Peart is the Dean of the Jepson School of Leadership Studies & the E. Claiborne Robins Distinguished Professor in Leadership Studies at the University of Richmond.Timestamps:[03:12] Why do we work so hard?[20:50] Do we admire the wrong people?[27:57] The invisible hand and its enemies[53:30] Liberty, slavery and the American colonies[57:52] Education

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/impact-of-ai-on-us-productivity

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On Thursday, February 19, Nick Bloom joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on the impact of AI on US productivity. Nick Bloom is the William Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University, a Senior Fellow of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and the Co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at NBER.Timestamps:[08:41] A new age of productivity growth?[19:05] What is the current data on firm AI use?[24:58] The survey[29:29] Results on firms’ AI use[43:39] Employment effects and employee responses

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/past-automation-and-future-ai

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On Thursday, February 12, Chad Jones and Chris Tonetti joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on their paper, Past Automation and Future AI: How Weak Links Tame the Growth Explosion. Chad Jones is a Professor of Economics at Stanford University and a research associate of the NBER. Chris Tonetti is an Associate Professor of Economics at Stanford University and a research associate at the NBER. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Timestamps:[04:19] The basic weak-link model of automation[26:20] How much of economic growth comes from automation?[48:03] The Future Consequences of AI

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/challenges-and-opportunities-for

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On Thursday, February 5, Venkatram Anantha Nageswaran joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Building Strategic Leverage in the Emerging New World Order: Challenges and Opportunities for India.” V. Anantha Nageswaran is the Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Timestamps:[05:36] India’s manufacturing future[20:51] Designing intelligent import substitution[31:17] A reform agenda for strategic resilience[45:49] Growth in strategic sectors and under global fragility

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/chatgpts-stock-return-biases

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On Thursday, January 8, T. Clifton Green joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on ChatGPT’s Stock Return Biases. Clifton Green is the John W. McIntyre Professor of Finance at Emory University.Timestamps:[02:42] Literature and overview[22:20] Extrapolation in stock returns and market sentiment[42:43] Optimism in the distribution of stock return forecasts[54:23] Framing effects[59:09] Implications for using LLMs in finance

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/a-conversation-with-john-maynard

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In this special episode of Markus’ Academy we debut a new format: a conversation with John Maynard Keynes, recreated through an AI model grounded in his collected writings and archival audio.Keynes’ ideas reshaped modern macroeconomics. Here, Markus Brunnermeier asks AI Keynes how his theories have held up over the last century since the publication of his 1930 essay "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren," especially in the face of artificial intelligence. They discuss the impact of technological progress, resilience, bubbles and more.For a real-life recording of Keynes see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PYSFqCSsGULink to sign up for the webinar series: https://markusacademy.substack.com/We are grateful for feedback from Lord Robert Skidelsky, Harald Hagemann, and Harold James.Production by Pablo Balsinde, PhD student at the Stockholm School of Economics.Timestamps:[00:00] Introduction[01:22] Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren[04:22] Alan Turing[06:58] J-Curved Transitions[10:07] Populism[13:06] Jevons' Paradox[16:09] AI Platforms[18:43] Stock Market Bubbles[22:07] The Master Economist[24:48] The Importance of Economics[25:57] ConclusionNote: This is a historically grounded AI simulation for educational purposes, and not a real recording or newly discovered statement by Keynes.

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/modern-ai-for-economics-research

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On Thursday, December 18, Benjamin Golub joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Modern AI for Economics Research: An Overview of Tools.” Benjamin Golub is a professor of economics and computer science at Northwestern University and Co-Founder of refine.ink. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/modern-ai-for-economics-research

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On Thursday, December 18, Benjamin Golub joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Modern AI for Economics Research: An Overview of Tools.” Benjamin Golub is a professor of economics and computer science at Northwestern University and Co-Founder of refine.ink. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/modern-ai-for-economics-research

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Thursday, December 18, Benjamin Golub joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Modern AI for Economics Research: An Overview of Tools.” Benjamin Golub is a professor of economics and computer science at Northwestern University and Co-Founder of refine.ink. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/should-we-fear-ai

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On Thursday, December 4, Philippe Aghion joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Should We Fear AI?” Philippe Aghion is The Kurt Björklund Chaired Professor in Innovation and Growth at INSEAD, a professor at Collège de France and visiting professor at the London School of Economics. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Timestamps:[8:09] New estimates of the impact of AI[28:02] Superstar firms and renewing AI competition policy[33:48] AI and employment[43:43] Conclusion and Q&A

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/make-personal-finance-work-for-everyone

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On Monday, October 27, John Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on their book, Fixed: Why Personal Finance is Broken and How to Make It Work for Everyone. Campbell is the Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics at Harvard University. Ramadorai is Professor of Financial Economics at Imperial College London. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Timestamps:[6:12] The problem[38:45] The specifics: what goes wrong in personal finance[48:02] Solutions: shove, don't just nudge[1:04:49] A new vision: a personal finance “starter kit”

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/behavioral-economics-anomalies-then

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On Thursday, October 9, Alex Imas and Richard Thaler joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on their new book, The Winner’s Curse. Imas is the Roger L. and Rachel M. Goetz Professor of Behavioral Science, Economics and Applied AI at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Thaler is the 2017 recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to behavioral economics. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Timestamps:[0:00] Introduction[3:50] Economists should listen to Kahneman [33:08] Progress in behavioral economics[40:12] Selling fast and buying slow[48:00] The robustness and future of behavioral econ

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/economics-and-the-new-global-disorder

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On Wednesday, September 10, Lawrence H. Summers joined Markus’ Academy for a lecture. Lawrence H. Summers is the Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus of Harvard University and a board member of OpenAI. During the past three decades, he has served in a series of senior policy positions in Washington, D.C., including the 71st Secretary of the Treasury for President Clinton, Director of the National Economic Council for President Obama and Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist of the World Bank. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Timestamps:[0:00] Part 1: Technological Progress[6:55] Solow Paradox or not?[8:20] Labor augmenting vs. savings and the Jevon's Paradox[10:03] Recursive nature due to automation of ideas[17:27] Will the meaning of being human change?[21:10] Human community, social interaction and AI companion[23:42] Designed or spontaneous progress[28:04] Concentration of power[38:14] Distribution of fruit of technical progress and UBI[45:00] Part 2: Populism[47:00] Elites, university politics, [53:00] The democratic party in the US[56:08] Part 3: Geopolitics[1:00:06] Can mistakes be undone?[1:04:01] The role of the US dollar[1:10:19] Concluding Part: Lessons for Economists

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https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/who-is-afraid-of-us-stablecoins

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On Thursday, September 4, Jean-Pierre Landau joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Who is afraid of U.S. Stablecoins?” Landau is an affiliated Professor of Economics at Sciences Po. A former Deputy Governor of the Banque de France, he has held senior roles at the IMF, World Bank, and the EBRD. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Timestamps:[3:08] Basics of tokenized money[14:45] Can stablecoins become a generalized payment instrument? [32:55] Stablecoins and the stability of private money[54:47] International monetary competition

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/an-alternate-path-to-decarbonizing

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Tuesday, August 12, Sylvain Chassang joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Keep, Cut, Commit: An Alternative Path to Decarbonizing Car Use.” Chassang is a Professor of Economics at Princeton University and a former Member of the French Conseil d’Analyse Economique. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Timestamps:[2:41] The Keep, Cut, Commit Proposal[9:11] French Car Market[25:04] CO2 and subsidy leakage in the used car market[37:56] Details on “Keep” and “Cut”[43:50] Details on “Commit”

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/ai-and-productivity-a-general-purpose

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Thursday, June 5, Jonathan Haskel joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “AI and Productivity: A General Purpose Technology Approach.” Jonathan Haskel is Professor of Economics at Imperial Business School and, from 2018 until 2024, he was a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Timestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[5:01] AI as a “GPT” and an “IMI”[17:01] Modeling general purpose technologies[25:08] Two generations of AI[34:17] New estimates of AI’s impact on labor productivity growth[46:19] Q&A and implications for monetary policy

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/geopolitics-of-payments-the-dollar

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Wednesday, May 28, Martin Chorzempa joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Geopolitics of Payments: The Dollar, the RMB, and Digital Currencies.” Chorzempa is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.Timestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[5:51] Payment plumbing[21:31] Dollar dominance and sanctions[37:02] The RMB and other challengers to the USD[45:41] Digital currencies[57:46] Conclusion and Q&A

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/how-ai-models-learn-reason-and-self

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Thursday, May 22, Sanjeev Arora joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on Parrots No More: How AI Models Learn, Reason, and Self-Improve. Arora is the Charles C. Fitzmorris Professor of Computer Science and the Director of Princeton Language and Intelligence at Princeton University.Timestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[4:15] Next-word prediction is more powerful than it seems[18:02] Skills and implications for originality[41:27] Metacognition: are LLMs aware of how they are solving tasks?[46:07] Current AI techniques[1:03:34] Peeking 5-7 years ahead

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/industrial-policy-in-the-global-economy

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Thursday, May 8, Pinelopi Goldberg joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Industrial Policy in the Global Economy.” Goldberg is the William Nordhaus Professor of Economics and Global Affairs and an Affiliate of the Economic Growth Center at Yale University.Timestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[5:09] How should international economists think about industrial policy?[17:08] Four case studies: insights and measurement challenges[41:43] Cross-border spillovers of industrial subsidies[1:07:03] Industrial policy for developing countries

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/federal-reserve-monetary-policy

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Thursday, May 1, William Dudley and Carolyn Wilkins joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “The Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Framework Review: A Comprehensive Approach to Improve Robustness.” Dudley is currently a Senior Advisor at the Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies at Princeton University and previously served as the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Wilkins is an external member of the Financial Policy Committee at the Bank of England and a visiting senior research scholar at the Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies at Princeton University.Timestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[6:13] Shortcomings of the 2020 Framework[30:10] 6 recommendations from the report[52:18] Additional proposals

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/us-dollar-deficits-and-safe-assets

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Thursday, April 17, Markus Brunnermeier recorded a special episode of Markus’ Academy, discussing “US Dollar, Deficits & Safe Assets: Are we Entering a New Global Economic Order?” Markus Brunnermeier is the Director of the Bendheim Center of Finance at Princeton University.Timestamps:[0:00] Geopolitical shifts[12:39] What is a Safe Asset?[23:10] Deficits, Tariffs, and the Exorbitant Privilege[45:33] Trade Chokepoints 101

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/tariffs-and-financial-turbulences

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Wednesday, April 9, Torsten Slok joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on "Tariffs and Financial Turbulences." Torsten Slok is a Partner and the Chief Economist at Apollo.Timestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[8:40] Trade and Tariffs[29:11] Market turmoil dynamics[49:52] Conclusion and the Fed

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/missing-value-of-firms-data-measurement

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Thursday, February 20, Laura Veldkamp joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation. Veldkamp is the Leon G. Cooperman Professor of Finance & Economics at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Timestamps:[08:09] Data barter and bundling[27:17] Data dynamics: feedback loops and depreciation[35:40] 1st approach to measure and value data: value functions[41:39] 2nd approach: data as a complementary input[49:18] 3rd approach: revenues[1:01:10] Conclusions

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/how-to-think-about-trade-imbalances

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Thursday, January 30, Paul Krugman joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation. Paul Krugman is Professor Emeritus at Princeton University, the Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York and the 2008 recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics.Timestamps:[00:00] Markus’ introduction[06:17] Addressing a new view about trade imbalances[34:02] Is deindustrialization a problem?[43:02] Is there a case for tariffs?[51:15] Q&A

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/first-year-of-javier-mileis-presidency

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Thursday, January 23, Federico Sturzenegger joined Markus’ Academy. He is the Minister of Deregulation and State Transformation of the Argentine Republic, he teaches at the University of San Andrés in Buenos Aires (UdeSA) and at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, USA. He is also Professor Honoris Causa at HEC Paris.

Timestamps:[00:00] Markus’ introduction[08:16] Argentina in 2024[27:03] Two key deregulatory reforms[42:32] Regulation resistance and dynamics[58:05] Conclusion and Q&A

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/introducing-ai-agents

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Friday, January 17, Eduard Talamas joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation. Eduard Talamas is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the IESE Business School and a CEPR Research Fellow.

Timestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[04:47] AI agents will likely arrive this year[18:50] Pre-AI knowledge economics[29:15] Introducing AI into the canonical model[39:42] Effects of introducing (autonomous) AI agents[48:08] Effects of introducing (non-autonomous) AI agents[56:03] Conclusion

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/ai-in-finance-an-overview

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Friday, December 20, Simona Paravani joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “AI in Finance: An Overview.” Simona Paravani is the Global CIO of Solutions within BlackRock’s Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions group as well as a Supernumerary Fellow; Distinguished Affiliated Professor, Faculty of Economics at the University of Cambridge.

Timestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[08:15] AI’s impact on the economy[18:37] AI’s impact on the Investment Management industry’s operating model[22:04] Challenges and areas of focus

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/ai-for-economics-education

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Thursday, December 12, Kevin Bryan joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on "AI for Economics Education." Kevin Bryan is an Associate Professor at the University of Toronto.

Timestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[4:23] Pros and cons of AI in education[15:01] A path to Bloom’s Two Sigma[23:28] The free alternatives to raw models[34:44] AlldayTA[51:45] Q&A

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/the-incongruent-economics-of-ai

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Thursday, December 5, Bertin Martens joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on The Incongruent Economics of AI. Bertin Martens is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.

Timestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[9:52] Exponential cost growth and the productivity growth from AI[27:50] Three challenges in competition policy[50:35] Growing tension between the private and social value of data[1:01:32] EU AI Policy Options[1:08:58] Non-economic drivers of AI

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/ai-scaling-laws-and-market-structure

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Tuesday, November 26, Anton Korinek joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on AI Scaling Laws and Market Structure. Anton Korinek is a Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.

Timestamps:[9:47] The AI Scaling laws[27:48] Snapshot of the AI market[39:43] Where is this all going?[47:54] Concentration concerns[1:04:58] Regulation and conclusion

Follow the link for the full summary:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/long-term-interest-rates-fiscal-policy

Link to sign up for the webinar series:

https://markusacademy.substack.com/

On Friday, November 15, Torsten Slok joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on Long-term Interest Rates, Fiscal Policy and the Term Premium. Torsten Slok is Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.
Timestamps:[6:38] Overview[15:02] The fundamentals of the U.S. budget[24:49] The maturity structure of U.S. debt [42:58] The ownership structure of U.S. debt[52:59] No signs of weakness in Treasury auctions[1:01:42] The term premium, the reserve currency status, and the Fed