Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Market Trends with Tracy
| Titre | Date | Durée | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guess Who's Back | 18 Oct 2024 | 00:03:01 | |
The CME has mellowed out for much more normal weekly numbers. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Value Has Returned to Dairy Markets | 11 Oct 2024 | 00:03:23 | |
The decline in dairy prices continues this week, through Thursday, barrel is down 15, block is down 11 and butter is down 5, since the recent peak in late mid-September barrel has dropped 72 cents, block is down 34 and butter has dropped 38. That is a pretty major reset in just three weeks. We may have another week or so before this market hits bottom but good value has returned to the dairy markets. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Dead of Summer Markets | 09 Aug 2024 | 00:03:14 | |
There is not much pushing the beef market to move higher at the moment. Grinds, chucks, and rounds are holding steady, while strip loins continue to lose value. Ribeyes and tenderloins have found some support. Buy what you need knowing this market is not heading higher for now. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Nothing Encouraging To Say About Turkey | Episode 100! | 30 Sep 2022 | 00:06:14 | |
Happy Episode 100! Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Bird Flu Might Be Here To Stay | 23 Sep 2022 | 00:03:30 | |
This year’s avian flu outbreak just won’t let up. With the southern migration in full swing it seems cases are picking up again. This week, 14 new reports of bird flu affecting 265K birds, mostly turkeys bringing the total birds lost since the beginning of the year to 45.1 million. Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Episode Sources https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Hot Weather Heightens Grain Prices | 16 Sep 2022 | 00:03:55 | |
A USDA report released Monday lowered harvested corn acreage by 1 million acres and lowered yield per acre estimates 2.9%. That same report reduced soy bean acreage by 600,000 acres and reduced yield per acre 1.4%. These reductions are attributed to hot dry weather during the last few weeks of the growth cycle. Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Episode Sources: https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/22218-a-stunning-reversal-in-harvest-expectations Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Avian Flu Takes A Toll on Turkey | 09 Sep 2022 | 00:03:23 | |
Last week we had reports of 390K birds removed from the food supply, mostly turkeys, a worrying event and hopefully not a trend. BUT – it is a trend. This week we have new reports removing 3.1 million birds – 3 million egg laying chickens in Ohio and another 80K turkeys. Seems we may be getting a double dose of bird flu this year. Fall migration will be starting soon and this is not a great way to finish the year. Expect an already tight supply to get tighter and prices move higher. So far this year there have been 43.8 million birds removed from the food supply. Looking at chicken, were the availability is strong, no avian flu reports, plenty of product, good pricing. https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-turkey-prices-could-make-for-a-fowl-thanksgiving-11662117778 https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Keeping An Eye On Corn | 02 Sep 2022 | 00:03:22 | |
Grains Corn closed @ $7.43 just up from last week’s close of $7.35. Initial harvest reports are a bit troubling and weather has not been helping. There is concern yields could be substantially reduced which could be pushing prices higher once the harvest is in hand. Something I will be watching. Soy oil is holding pretty steady, there was a small increase earlier this week but nothing to alarming. The soy harvest could be similarly affected by weather as corn. Winter wheat harvest is done, summer wheat harvest is in process and running behind. International issues may push prices higher but right now, it looks pretty steady. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022 Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Time To Buy Bacon | Pork Drops $56 | 26 Aug 2022 | 00:03:55 | |
First of all, Happy Birthday to Tracy's Mother! Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Summer Wrap-Up | 19 Aug 2022 | 00:03:27 | |
Continuing to look at Avian Flu, only two farms reporting cases over the last week, with 130 birds affected. I’m about done with Avian Flu so would like it to please just go away. The damage is done, the recovery in process. If we don’t see any flare-ups of new cases in the fall we should be looking good come January. Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Pork Belly Breaks Records | 05 Aug 2022 | 00:03:19 | |
Pork bellies set a new record high on Tuesday closing at $242. Yesterday’s close came off that high to close at $215 which is up from last week’s $209. This is expensive territory for bacon. If you have to have it, I’d buy just what you need, but I’m not expecting this market to hold for too long. Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Chicken Normalizes For Now | 29 Jul 2022 | 00:03:02 | |
Continuing to look at Avian Flu and we added a new state this past week as Florida makes the 38th state with reported cases, including the Florida operation only 450 new cases reported. Looking forward to a week with no new cases. Chicken market is tanking. Like dropping like a rock and back to costs we are used to seeing, dropping several dollars per case next week. Production is still steady but demand has fallen off. I think we’ve got a few more weeks of these lower prices. Time of a wing special. Turkey continues to be expensive with tight supplies. Buy chicken.
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Avian Flu Refusing To Let Up | 22 Jul 2022 | 00:03:21 | |
I keep hoping Avian Flu is on its last leg and new cases are certainly down, but over the last week 42,000 head were reported infected, mostly turkey operations in Utah. That brings our total number of birds lost to over 40,100,000. Maybe this week’s nationwide heat wave will help end the new cases. We hold at 37 states with reported cases. Looking at chicken and QSR and foodservice demand are lightening up while pricing for wings and boneless breasts continue lower. Tenders seem to be the only chicken part holding value. Expect chicken to continue to return to the value protein we’ve depended on. Episode Sources:
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Finally Some Good Chicken News | 02 Aug 2024 | 00:03:13 | |
Beef production continues to be restrained with the summer heat and low demand. Packers need to keep pricing up as much as they can. Strip loins are moving lower. Ribeyes and tenderloins have gone as low as they probably can for now. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Is There Finally Good News For Flour? | 15 Jul 2022 | 00:03:30 | |
Episode Sources:
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Looks Like An Expensive Summer For Pork | 08 Jul 2022 | 00:03:49 | |
Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected steady for three weeks now. Only 306 new cases reported since last week. the last 13 reports have all been small backyard farms, the last major producer report was almost a month ago on June 9. We have a few very tough months to get through as turkey and egg producers look to restock their farms and get production going again. Recovery will take pretty much the rest of 2022. Egg prices are starting to show the strain of losing all those birds. Even with inflated egg prices, eggs continue to be a good value for protein. I do think we will see continued increases on eggs. Chicken production is holding steady and the market is pretty quiet this week. Coming out of the holiday with lower production numbers should pause a lower market for a week or so but I still see the overall chicken market moving lower.
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Avian Flu Claims 40 Million Birds | 01 Jul 2022 | 00:03:28 | |
Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected steady for three weeks now. Only 350 new cases reported since last week so we stand at about 40 million birds lost to the virus.. Turkey products and egg products will continue to be tight to unavailable for several months. Chicken production is holding pretty steady but demand is not. Boneless breasts continue to lower prices again this week, they have more downside to come. Wings are holding steady and tenders are finally starting to follow breasts lower but still seem pretty inflated to me. Episode Sources:
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Repercussions For Months To Come | 24 Jun 2022 | 00:03:27 | |
Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected. For the first time since the initial cases reported in February, we have gone a whole week with no new cases reported. The damage done hold at just over 40 million birds removed from the food chain. We will feel the repercussions from this for months to come, the two industry segments most affected are chicken egg layers and turkeys. Expect very tight supply and increasing pricing for the next few months. The southeast home to most of the chicken producers was minimally affected and after the recent run up in boneless breast prices we continue on the way down with lower prices again this week. I think there is some more downside to this slide, as now chicken is finally back below ground beef pricing. Still, we have more room to slide. Wings are holding steady as demand is being well met by current production.
Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| What The News Isn't Telling You About Beef Production | 17 Jun 2022 | 00:03:30 | |
While the news is indicating that there is an upcoming beef shortage, you may want to take that with a grain of salt. https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| The Foodservice Impacts of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine | 10 Jun 2022 | 00:04:16 | |
Let’s look at some markets and start again with Poultry and the continuation of the Avian Flu outbreak. Poultry: Avian Flu now has been detected in 36 states same as last week. After last week only reporting 600 birds this week we had a large egg laying operation in Colorado depopulate 1.9 million birds pushing the overall total to just shy of 40 million birds. My hopes for this outbreak to be over look a bit premature right now. Looking at boneless skinless breasts I’m finally seeing chicken breasts have peaked and slowly moving just a bit lower. Tenders are still well sold and holding their value but we seem to be heading lower on breast meat.. finally. Chicken production is up slightly over the last week, demand is still strong from the QSR segment but looks like. Wings are holding steady and continue to be the value in the chicken market. Beef: The holiday shortened production week had 603 K harvested down from the prior week 644K which is a pretty strong production number for a holiday week. There is product available and the market seems pretty steady. Rounds and chucks are steady, loins and tenderloins have the most current demand and are steady to slightly up. Ribeyes are not demanding the summer attention we’ve seen in previous years. Even though we are well below pricing same time last year beef is not holding retail demand. I don’t see much to change a well supplied market with moderate demand, I’ll call this market just hanging out. Pork: Bellies crashed yesterday all the way down to $138 almost $35 dollars down from last week’s $173. This is not something typical this time of year. Bellies can bounce around and be unpredictable so let’s take advantage of this current low market, I don’t think this will last. Loins and butts continue pretty steady for a third week, still fairly elevated but for the time of year we seem to be doing Ok. Ribs on the other hand after chilling for a couple weeks are moving higher again. All these pork prices should have a summer peak in late July or early August. Grains: Corn closed at $7.97 up from last week’s $7.52. Continued war in Ukraine is holding up product for much of the world. New crop planting is nearly done with 94% of the crop in the ground. Export demand continues strong so no relief on corn prices any time soon. Soy beans hit an all time high this week which has not translated to soy oil.. yet. Still holding steady for a second week though Canola is getting tight, and outpricing soy now. Some suppliers are allocating canola oil hoping to stretch to new crop. New soy crop is 78% planted up from 66% last week so a few more weeks planting hand hoping the weather cooperates. Wheat continues to struggle, spring wh Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Avian Flu is Winding Down (Maybe) | 03 Jun 2022 | 00:04:31 | |
We are seeing the wind-down of Avian Flu with only one state, Georgia, added this week making the total number of states 36. Three farms in Iowa have had their quarantine lifted and are starting to repopulate their operations. Chicken breasts and tenders continue higher with no stop in sight. Wings remain the bargain here. Turkey is scarce and expensive. Specialty eggs are in tight supply. Beef production is strong and there is product available, but prices are moving slightly higher. Pork prices are holding steady, but production will decline in the heat of the summer. Corn and soy planting have picked up the pace and are almost meeting the five-year average. With wheat still being difficult this year, stay well ahead of your flour needs.
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Minus 38 Million Birds | 27 May 2022 | 00:03:55 | |
Avian Flu now has been detected in 35 states same as last week. Just over 38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up only about 24K for the week, the smallest total in weeks. Most affected are egg layers which accounts for about 76% of all avian flu cases. Turkeys have been hit hard as well, availability will be impacted on turkeys and turkey products. Looking at current markets and the march higher on boneless chicken breast continues. Wings are now moving higher as well, still the bargain in chicken though.
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Chicken Breast is More Expensive Than Ground Beef | 20 May 2022 | 00:04:43 | |
Avian Flu now has been detected in 35 states adding one more state to the list. Around 38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up only about 100K for the week. One contact in the turkey business told me we just need 7 straight days over 70 degrees and the virus will die. Again, the damage is done but hopefully we are at the end of this outbreak. Not to be a downer but I did see some speculation the virus will return come fall when the weather gets cool again and give us a double whammy. Looking at current markets and chicken breasts are still moving higher and setting new records. With breast meat now costing more than ground beef and pork loins and butts, I’m hard pressed to see this market continue much higher, but with QSR demand holding strong and production only showing small increases I don’t see any relief either. Looks like we were right on wings having hit bottom, they are moving higher again. Still a bargain compared to breast meat but I think we’ve seen the bottom for this run on wing prices. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Turkey Troubles & Wheat Woes | 13 May 2022 | 00:05:00 | |
Avian Flu now has been detected in 34 states adding two more states to the list. Around 38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up about 1 million for the week. We are seeing slower growth each week and as I understand it this virus is not hardy in warmer weather. Heading into summer we should see things calm down, but the effects of this outbreak should not be minimized. Egg layers and turkey producers have been severely affected. Expect turkey products to be tight and expensive, and I’m not even talking about the holidays. Looking at chicken and this song is the same. Breast meat is higher still and no sign of stopping. Wings maybe are about as low as we are going to see. I’m not expecting wings to move higher just seems we may be at the bottom here. Production numbers are not increasing to keep pace with the strong demand. Things could be getting tight on breast meat in the next few weeks. Hard to buy ahead on fresh product but I would not recommend running this inventory tight. Episode Sources:
Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Pork Bellies Rally On | 26 Jul 2024 | 00:03:28 | |
The beef market continues to correct on middle meats, especially the strip loin. Ribeyes and tenderloins are coming down as well. Grinds continue to be the focus with chucks and rounds holding on pricing. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Record High For Soy Oil | 06 May 2022 | 00:04:02 | |
There is expectation that Indonesia will reopen their palm oil exports, which will be a big help, but I don’t see soy coming back any time soon. A look at wheat and markets are moving higher again on poor plantings and very strong demand. I know I say it every week, but stay well ahead of your flour needs. https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d https://www.card.iastate.edu/research/biorenewables/tools/hist_eth_gm.aspx Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Cautious Optimism & Climbing Corn | 29 Apr 2022 | 00:03:22 | |
Avian Flu has now been detected in 29 states , with no additional states for the week. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Soy Oil Hits Record High & Avian Flu Spreads Further | 22 Apr 2022 | 00:03:54 | |
Avian Flu now has been detected in 29 states, three more added since last week. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Soy Oil Hits A High | 15 Apr 2022 | 00:03:49 | |
Soy oil has moved to it’s highest trade level of the year. Strong export demand and biofuels help keep pushing soy higher. Wheat is tight, and expensive though I’m told come June or July we should see relief in availability of flour. I’m not believing yet, but we will keep watching. https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Avian Flu Spreads Further | 08 Apr 2022 | 00:04:30 | |
Lets look at a few markets together and I’m starting again this week with Poultry because Avian Flu continues to grow. Poultry As of yesterday avian flu has been detected in 24 states just one more than last week. So far 23 million birds have been removed from the food chain, an additional 6 million birds for the week. Hardest hit is Iowa and egg laying facilities. Of the 23 million birds affected, 13 million have been in Iowa. While any detection is difficult when egg layers are infected not only do we lose the bird but also all the eggs they won’t be laying. Shell eggs a week before Easter are typically as high as they get, so let’s hope we see some relief over the next couple weeks though we are in a very different situation than usual. During the 2015 Avian flu outbreak the total bird depopulation was about 50 million birds. Warm weather will slow the virus so we probably have several weeks to go. Demand for chicken continues strong and breast meat continues higher. Wings continue to amaze me with lower numbers again. I know it is really early to say this, but turkeys for the holidays are lining up to be very short and very expensive. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Avian Flu On The Move | 01 Apr 2022 | 00:03:51 | |
As of yesterday, avian flu has been detected in 23 states, up from last week at 17 states. So far 17 million birds have been removed from the food chain, an additional 4 million birds for the week. . Detection of avian flu in Minnesota is quite concerning as 20% of the US turkey population is raised in Minnesota. As with last week, shell eggs are on a tear moving higher again for next week. We have two weeks to Easter, hopefully we can get by the holiday and see these prices ease. Boneless chicken breasts continue to inch higher on strong retail and QSR demand. Wings may be about at bottom for this market so if you are inclined and have the room, would not be a bad thing to load in a few cases. Breasts running at a premium of over $.70/# over wings is extraordinary. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Is Anything NOT Expensive? | 25 Mar 2022 | 00:03:57 | |
If you are in the local market I do hope you will be joining us at the Saval Foodservice 90th anniversary celebration this Monday at Maryland Live Casino & Resort. I’ll be there doing what I do best… talking. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Liquid Gold - The Effects of Sunflower Oil Strain On Other Edible Oils | 18 Mar 2022 | 00:04:56 | |
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/avian-flu-outbreak-in-the-u-s-what-to-know-right-now https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1eE2FDL6Iwy9szQLuwi-rD0AwSuncNipk&usp=sharing https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm https://www.barrons.com/amp/news/spain-trucker-strike-sparks-supply-chain-tensions-01647530107
Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| The Control of Corn | 11 Mar 2022 | 00:05:02 | |
Corn closed yesterday at $7.56 up from last week’s $7.29. Remember when we were worried about $5 corn? Yeah, us too. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Ukraine | The Number 1 Supplier of Sunflower Oil In The World | 04 Mar 2022 | 00:04:15 | |
Ukraine is the #1 supplier of sunflower oil in the world. Sunflower oil is popular making crackers, cookies, and pastry applications. If sunflower isn’t available these manufacturers will move to what’s available.
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| 2024 Summer Focus: Ground Beef | 19 Jul 2024 | 00:04:10 | |
This summer, it's all about ground beef. Strips, ribeyes, and tenderloins are seeing price declines, so delaying the buy on these cuts could save money. Rounds, chucks, and thin meats are headed to the grinder to support ground beef demand, so expect these prices to stay supported and availability to be reduced. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Wings, Wheat and War | 25 Feb 2022 | 00:03:36 | |
Beef processors are keeping the plants humming, last week’s production of 663K head was up from the prior week’s 659K. Bellies closed at $214 yesterday, up from last week’s $209. War has a way of making commodity markets jumpy. All of em. Corn closed yesterday at $6.89 up from last week’s $6.53. Weather in South America, war in Ukraine, all make American corn more valuable. Unfortunately it means it costs more to feed the animals we eat. No good news here. Soy is moving up as well, three straight weeks of increases and I’m hearing expect more to come. Wheat is the one taking off due to conflict in Ukraine. I’ve been saying a while stay ahead on flour, lets really keep that advise, Ukraine and Russia account for about 29% of the worlds wheat exports and right now that commerce is in jeopardy. Episode sources: https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items http://www.cheesereporter.com/pricesbutter.htm
Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| The Dreaded Butter Rollercoaster | 18 Feb 2022 | 00:03:22 | |
Thursday, February 17, 2022 Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Bacon Buying Benched | 11 Feb 2022 | 00:04:27 | |
Take a seat bacon purchasers- it's a "buy what you need time". Pork production continues to lag with production down 3% from the prior week and 8.5% behind last year. Bellies closed yesterday at $179 up from last weeks $161. I originally thought we would be at the peak by now but now I’m thinking this inflated belly market may have some legs. For the time being, I’m on the sideline with buying bacon in this market, just buy what you need. Butts and loins both moving higher as well. Spring usually see increase in pork but that may be muted this year since… well, we are already there. What an interesting chicken market. Breast and tenders continue to be tight and moving higher. Wings are high, no great bargains to be found, but they are available, very different from last year. So plenty of wings for Super Bowl and March Madness coming in a few weeks. Chicken producers seem to be intent to meet current demands. As with so much these days though, labor and transportation present the biggest challenges. Whole chickens are where the value is if you have the labor talent and ability to sell the whole bird. Soy started cranking up last week and it hasn’t stopped this week. we are at the highest market since October last year. I’d stay ahead on soy products as I don’t think there will be any real breaks coming soon. Wheat was holding fairly steady for a couple weeks but this week sees both Hard Red winter wheat and Soft Spring Wheat are moving higher again. If you are a big flour users I’d stay will ahead on my needs. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| There's Good And Bad News | 04 Feb 2022 | 00:05:13 | |
That groundhog can kiss… oh.. Never mind. Let’s look at markets. Beef: Production numbers continue to get better with 643K head harvested last week, up from 636K head the week before. I think with this increased production and Valentine’s Day being on a Monday this year, lack of demand is going push this market lower. As I said last week, I don’t think we will see lower prices before Valentine’s day but beef demand is lowest in February for the whole year. Middle meats are still holding strong and loins are moving up, but I think this complex will be moving lower in the next couple weeks. Until them, buy only what you need. Ground beef is still in overdrive followed by rounds and chucks. We should be about ready to break, but not just yet. Pork: Pork bellies continue higher closing at $161 yesterday, higher than last week’s $154. We are in a much improved position with bellies in cold storage from the end of 2021. The new reality of the higher costs at retail have made a dent in sales. I think we will see a buying opportunity later this month, but right now we are still heading higher. Overall pork production is running behind last year, we may not see much relief in pork pricing though the first half of the year. Expect strong pricing to continue. Chicken: Boneless skinless breasts continue higher still. This time of year has not seen pricing like this since 2009. While demand for breast meat continues wings are moving up too. February is always a high time for wings, this year will be no exception. On an encouraging note, the hatch rate broke 80% for the first time since April of last year. Finally. This is good news. Labor and transportation continue to challenge chicken production but available raw material is increasing. With QSR driving the breast demand, don’t expect anything to come off anytime soon. Grains: Lots going on in corn and especially soy. Let’s talk corn first, yesterday closed at $6.29 down from last week’s $6.34. Lowered expectations on the south American crops are keeping demand on US corn strong around the world. Lower than expected exports held things a bit in check so I think unless something drastic happens we are in the $6 corn world for the foreseeable future. Soy ran up this week to its highest price in six months. Biofuel demand, that bad news out of South America and higher palm oil prices all had influence on soy prices. We are in better position than we were last year, but I think we could see another run up on soy. Looking at flour and it is two different stories. Hard red wheat continues to move higher while soft spring wheat seems to have topped out for right now Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| More Of The Same | 28 Jan 2022 | 00:03:31 | |
The end of January is here and February is a short month. Beef Production numbers continue to lag due to COVID and labor issues. Last week’s harvest of 636K head is heading in the right direction, the prior week’s final was adjusted down to 618K head. Light production is pushing prices higher pretty much across all beef items. Grinds continue to lead the way higher but chucks and rounds are moving up strongly too. Middle meats are moving higher as well. We have Valentine’s Day coming in a couple weeks. Pricing on middle meats will not be going down before then so it would not be a bad idea to work ahead if you know your needs for the holiday. Once we see better harvest numbers I do think we will see this market move lower but I’m not seeing that just yet. PORK. Pork bellies continue higher closing at $154 yesterday, higher than last week’s $147. I still think we have a few more weeks of this climb and then we should see some buying opportunities on bacon. The big news this week is a California court has delayed the implementation of Prop 12 the animal welfare proposition passed by California voters in 2018. California ag now has 6 months to develop guidelines then 6 months to implement so push this off at least another year. Pork product is increasing slowly from prior weeks but still well behind last year. Expect strong prices on pork to continue. CHICKEN – Boneless skinless breast meat continues to be in demand and driving chicken prices higher. Look at QSR for this driving up of breast prices. Wings are in demand and holding their value at least into March Madness. Unlike last year though, there are wings available. I don’t see chicken coming off the current track through winter. DAIRY – Finally a look at Dairy, butter did top out last week and as often happens with a market running up that fast, the new pricing cannot be sustained. Butter has giving back $.30 of the $.53 run up since Monday. Similarly block is off $.09 thru Thursday close and Barrel is down a healthy $.15. I don’t think we will see much more downside to this market but much better pricing is coming soon. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| The (Ongoing) Price Of The Pandemic | 21 Jan 2022 | 00:05:00 | |
COVID is hitting beef production pretty hard. The last two weeks harvest has been at 620K head which is not sufficient to meet demand. Pricing is mover higher to reflect the scarcity of product. Ground beef usually moves up this time of year but it is in overdrive right now. Chucks, and rounds are showing seasonal strength but we are also moving higher in middle meats, in the dead of winter, the lowest demand time of the year. Until we see production numbers increase I don’t see this changing.
PORK. Pork bellies closed at $1.47 up just a bit from last week’s $145. I think we will see bellies with a steady move higher for the next few weeks then some lower movement once we get into February, but not just yet. Labor challenges are having an impact on production and product availability. Those items that take extra time in the plant, ie boneless butts vs bone in butts or boneless loins vs bone in loins will not be in abundance and will carry a strong premium to their less processed counterparts, hence you’ll see increases in boneless butts and loins while bone in product will be holding pretty steady.
CHICKEN – Chicken production is holding up pretty well. Demand for breast meat continues very strong and pricing is moving higher still. We are into serious wing demand season with football heading toward its season end and college basketball heating up. The only way to look at wings is the market is up. Demand continues to be there for chicken and compared to other proteins the cost advantage continues.
GRAINS –Commodities overall are heating up as inflation concerns filter to commodities. Corn closed at $6.20 yesterday up from last week’s $6.14. South American crop news continues to be pessimistic the corn and soy crops. Soy is moving higher quickly. We may be in for another round of price increases from heavy soy using industries. Concerns for wheat are reflected in the Russia – Ukraine situation and possible disruptions for Black Sea shipments. Commodity grains will be worth watching as inflation, weather and politics all combine to cost us money.
DAIRY – Finally a look at Dairy, I thought we might have topped out with the recent butter run up, but no, there is more to go. So far this week butter is up another $.11. Fewer dairy cows, a light cold storage inventory and all the increased expenses to operate are holding butter prices higher. In conjunction with the butter prices, expect higher prices on heavy cream and cream cheese (if you can find it). I’m still holding hope we’ve hit a current peak on butter. Cheese however has peaked. Thru Thursday, Block is down .14 and barrel is st Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Omicron Outs | 19 Jan 2022 | 00:04:25 | |
If you've been to the grocery store in the past few days, the effects of Omicron/covid related staffing shortages are as clear as the empty produce shelves. On the foodservice front however, those shortages are not as severe, but certainly are there. Listen to the latest episode now! Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| The Action Is In Dairy This Week | 07 Jan 2022 | 00:05:11 | |
It's the first report of the new year, and beef is starting to look "normal". Overall the beef complex is acting as expected, while pork bellies continue to climb. Per usual, pork loins are the value choice in that segment. Listen to the full episode and feel free to leave us a comment on Instagram or Twitter @savalfoods . Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Against The Meat Grain | 30 Dec 2021 | 00:04:49 | |
Happy (almost) new year! This week we're taking a look at some meat prices that don't match historic trends. One notable call-out is that Chicken Wings are at their lowest since February 2021. However, they are the highest they have been in December since 2009. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Looking Ahead | 17 Dec 2021 | 00:03:45 | |
Well it's been a crazy year, so we're making our predictions for what might happen heading into 2022. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Let Freedom Wing | 05 Jul 2024 | 00:03:30 | |
Happy Independence Day! Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Clarified Costs | 09 Dec 2021 | 00:02:50 | |
Clarified Costs | Market Trends with Tracy 12/9 Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Holiday Roundup | 03 Dec 2021 | 00:05:30 | |
Holiday Roundup | Market Trends with Tracy 12/3/21 Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||
| Ribeye Relents | 26 Nov 2021 | 00:02:53 | |
Ribeye Relents | Market Trends with Tracy 11/27 Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn | |||