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Titre
Date
Durée
Macro Mondays #63 - What to make of Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
26 Aug 2024
00:30:51
We take a closer look at Jay Powell's Jackson Hole Speech and gauge the unemployment and inflation outlook for the US. Furthermore, we dive into the USDJPY trade and why Powell's cutting season might be a catastrophe for Ueda and Japan
Check out the episode on youtube to see the videos & memes we look at.
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Macro Mondays #53 - Get the Hell Outta Europe: Inflation, Elections, and Market Moves
17 Jun 2024
00:39:02
🔥 𝗝𝗢𝗜𝗡 Real Vision for FREE https://rvtv.io/3MMeRfQ. Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back for another episode of Macro Mondays with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, to dig into what’s going on with the European economy.
Andreas and Mikkel also cover China, geopolitics, and Solana. Recorded on June 14, 2024.
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Macro Mondays #52 Escaping the TRAP of Sideways Markets - Guest: Mads Eberhardt
10 Jun 2024
00:30:38
Macro Mondays is back with all new charts and analysis... Andreas Steno Larsen is back to break down all the latest news, narratives, and market developments in this week’s edition of Macro Mondays. The founder and CEO of @stenoresearch is joined by his co-host, Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics at Steno Research, and special guest Mads Eberhardt, the company’s senior crypto analyst. Recorded on June 7, 2024.
Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction to Macro Mondays 00:37 - Overview of the Week’s Topics 01:09 - Bitcoin Inflows Discussion 02:25 - Mount Gox Bankruptcy Update 05:30 - Meme of the Week: Jay Powell 06:39 - Central Banks Rate Cuts 09:12 - Real Vision Community Promotion 09:48 - Trump Soundbite and US Labor Market 12:48 - Transformation of the US Job Market 16:14 - Listener Feedback: Job Interview Traits 18:30 - Upcoming Week’s Focus: Liquidity and Inflation 21:22 - Liquidity Environment and Central Banks 23:01 - Impact on Crypto Market 24:19 - Portfolio Strategy: China vs. India 27:49 - Inflation Protection Strategy 29:26 - Conclusion
Macro Monday #51 - Germany rebounding!
02 Jun 2024
00:30:17
The team takes a look at Germany rebounding implications, Freight rates and the ramifications for Copper, Silver & Natural Gas.
This week on Macro Sunday ( next week - Macro Monday ) the team touches upon the Ethereum & Bitcoin ETF, freight rates, copper tourism & much more. Join us!
Macro Sunday #48 - Freddie Mac Proposal, Truth Media Stock & Boeing Scandal
12 May 2024
00:33:07
The team takes a look at the Freddie Mac proposal, the situation in Israel, the Trump hush money trial, rents, inflation and much more. Join in on the discussion!
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Find out more at www.stenoresearch.com/subscribe
Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
Find our Crypto coverage here - https://stenoresearch.com/category/crypto-moves/
We are sorry to inform you that this weeks episode has to be postponed to next week, due to reason out of our hands. We wish you a great sunday and hope to see you again next week.
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Find our Crypto coverage here - https://stenoresearch.com/category/crypto-moves/
Macro Sunday #46 - Inflation in developed markets but not in emerging markets?
21 Apr 2024
00:47:18
We host Vincent Deluard for a discussion on inflation trends in the US, Europe but also in China and Lat-Am. Will the Chinese deflation mainly impact EM, while the shrinking labour force of the West will lead to a renewed inflation pressure in Europe- and the US?
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Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
Find our Crypto coverage here - https://stenoresearch.com/category/crypto-moves/
Macro Sunday #45 - Is the next move a rate hike? Guest: Danny Dayan
14 Apr 2024
00:50:53
We host Danny Dayan for a discussion on the accelerating US inflation picture. Could the Fed move towards a neutral stance in June and a hike in 2025? Danny says yes and offers his compelling arguments
Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
Find our Crypto coverage here - https://stenoresearch.com/category/crypto-moves/ For a 2-week free trial - https://stenoresearch.com/subscribe/
Find our Crypto coverage here - https://stenoresearch.com/category/crypto-moves/
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Macro Sunday #44 - The fake business cycle - Guest: Bob Elliot
07 Apr 2024
00:39:31
Is the business cycle sending fake signals again, and is it fair that markets have priced out the entire recession risk? How will inflation assets thrive in Q2 given the Manufacturing rebound and are commodities, especially within metals, overbought in light of this? We take the discussion with former CO-CIO of Bridgewater Bob Elliot who is now running the investment office at Unlimited Funds.
Macro Sunday #42 - Can the gold rally continue? Guest: Bob Moriarty, 321gold.com
24 Mar 2024
00:27:10
Andreas is out of town, so it's a show of contrarian takes as we discuss gold, silver and everything related.
Can the gold rally continue and what metals and commodities are interesting throughout 2024? We consult the seasoned gold investor and fighter pilot Bob Moriarty of 321gold.com in this edition of Macro Sunday.
Host: Mikkel Rosenvold Guest: Bob Moriarty, 321gold
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Macro Sunday #41 - Commodities breaking out - including Crypto! Guest: Mads Eberhardt
17 Mar 2024
00:40:54
Oil, Copper and Silver have broken out of recent ranges and the overall commodity picture is starting to look technically compelling. Meanwhile, the inflow to the “digital commodity” Bitcoin remains strong leaving to new records by the day! We look into the physical and digital commodity markets in this weeks Macro Sunday. Guest: Mads Eberhardt
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Macro Sunday #40 - More liquidity is coming! Guest: Joseph Wang
10 Mar 2024
00:45:46
Liquidity levels are improving in USDs and more may be upcoming via the depletion of the ON RRP. Will the Fed move towards more benign balance sheet policies over the course of the year? And how about a potential operation "Twist"? Meanwhile, China is allowing the public deficit to grow. Is China the next positive surprise? Guest: Joseph Wang aka. The Fed Guy
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Macro Sunday #39 - Do you own enough commodities? Guest: Tracy Shuchart
03 Mar 2024
00:42:29
The cyclical rotation of asset markets is ongoing and the Manufacturing sector seems to be improving by the month. The consensus is getting very upbeat on the US growth picture but what about China and Europe? Is the Rest of the World ready to beat expectations and do you own enough commodities in case?
Find our research at https://stenoresearch.com/ The FREE newsletter is found at https://stenoresearch.com/free Guest of the week: Tracy Shuchart of https://hilltowerresourceadvisors.com/
Remember to go to www.stenoresearch.com - 14 day free trial.
Hosts: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold.
If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel: ➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23hp3vah
Macro Sunday #38 - MELT UP! Special guest: Mads Eberhardt
25 Feb 2024
00:42:28
Assets are melting up right, left and center as the optimism around the business cycle is improving. Is it fair to assume that countries outside of the US are improving? And how do you trade the cyclical comeback? Crypto assets are also celebrating the cyclical uptick and we are joined by Mads Eberhardt to discuss the Crypto market post the launch of Bitcoin ETFs.
We discuss the resurgence of US inflation, which rhymes well with our forward looking indicators. Will inflation return to 2% at all in this cycle? Our guest Freya Beamish of TS Lombard is not positive on China, but sees a strong structural case in Japan. Tune in!
Find our latest insights on inflation here - https://stenoresearch.com/watch-series/g3-inflation-wage-watch-us-inflation-will-not-return-to-2-this-cycle/
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Hosts: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold.
If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel: ➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23hp3vah
Macro Sunday #36 - Recession called off? Guest: Mikael Sarwe
11 Feb 2024
00:57:10
Is the US recession called off and is it even possible to talk about a re-acceleration of the economy? Where does it leave the hopes for a cutting cycle from the Fed and how will asset markets respond?
Remember to go to www.stenoresearch.com - launch of portfolios, 14 day free trial.
Hosts: Andreas Steno, Mikkel Rosenvold & Emil Møller
If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel: ➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23hp3vah
Macro Sunday #35 - War between the US and Iran? Guest: Jacob Shapiro
04 Feb 2024
00:43:53
Are we on the verge of war between the US and Iran? The Suez troubles continue but freight rates have leveled off somewhat despite growing tensions between the US and Iran. How close are we to an all in war? We look at the geopolitics and the ramifications for global markets with Jacob Shapiro of Cognitive Investments
Hosts: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold.
14 day free trial at www.stenoresearch.com
If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel
Find our Crypto coverage here - https://stenoresearch.com/category/crypto-moves/
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Macro Sunday #34 - The Red Sea is WORSENING
28 Jan 2024
00:42:02
The hopes for a quick solution in the Red Sea are fading and the global inflation impact will likely be lasting. The crisis is now spreading from containers to dry bulk and energy.
How will Chinese, European and US markets react to this?
Hosts: Andreas Steno, Mikkel Rosenvold and Emil Moller
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Macro Sunday #33 - A new supply shock? Guest: Dario Perkins
21 Jan 2024
00:53:51
We are once again joined by our favourite global macro economist, Dario Perkins of TS Lombard, to discuss the supply shock in the Red Sea. Will the freight rates wreak havoc with the 2024 cutting cycle consensus?
This is your last chance to get 30% off on your yearly subscription at www.stenoresearch.com - use macro30 to get 30% off today!
Hosts: Andreas Steno & Emil Møller
If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel ➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23hp3vah
Macro Sunday #32 - Inflation strikes back! Guest: Bob Elliott
14 Jan 2024
00:44:53
US inflation is accelerating again but the market is yet to care. Meanwhile, freight rates continue to rise on the back of increasing tensions in the Red Sea and goods inflation is threatening to come back with a vengeance. Will the Fed forward pricing prove to be off? We discuss it with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds
If you find our research valuable, please visit www.stenoresearch.com - there is always a 14 day free trial and you can use the code Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription until Jan 15!
Hosts: Andreas Steno, Mikkel Rosenvold & Emil Møller
If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel ➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23hp3vah
Macro Sunday #31 - Spiking freight rates bringing back inflation?
07 Jan 2024
00:39:26
The situation in the Red Sea is worsening and freight rates are on the rise in some subsectors. Can the situation escalate into a new inflation spiral and what does it mean for the positive 2024 outlooks from right about every investment bank?
We discuss the situation with a selection of analysts at Steno Research.
If you find our research valuable, please visit www.stenoresearch.com - there is always a 14 day free trial and you can use the code Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription until Jan 15!
Hosts: Andreas Steno, Mikkel Rosenvold, Mads Eberhardt & Emil Møller
If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel ➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23hp3vah
#30 - How’s consensus going to be wrongfooted in 2024? Guest: Marvin Barth
31 Dec 2023
00:53:14
How are markets positioned for 2024? We discuss the consensus outlook with Marvin Barth of Thematic Markets and weigh pros/cons of betting against the consensus in various asset classes. Will the Soft Landing narrative prevail or will tail scenarios unfold in 2024?
Happy New Years from the entire team at Steno Research14-days free trial available at: https://stenoresearch.com/subscribe/
Hosts: Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
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#29 - Inflation Volatility is back! Guest: Claus Vistesen
24 Dec 2023
00:33:08
Is the new ECB/Fed inflation forecast way off? And will inflation resurface already during 2024? Those are key questions for asset allocators. We host a thought provoking discussion with the tremendous Claus Vistesen of Pantheon.
Find out more at www.stenoresearch.com - always 14 days free trial access to our research https://stenoresearch.com/subscribe/
Hosts: Andreas Steno
#28 - Powell invites for a risk asset party. Guest: Raoul Pal
17 Dec 2023
01:00:31
Jay Powell invited for a massive risk asset party after the Fed opened the door for several cuts in 2023. Will the Fed suddenly prove to be the most dovish of the big central banks anyway? We assess the outlook for the big three central banks while also discussing whether this is a mid-cycle rate cutting cycle or the start of a recession.
Our guest of the week, Raoul Pal, thinks we are in an early cycle dynamic and that central banks are late to react to what was a recessionary pricing of risk assets in 2022.
#27 - There is no fever like gold fever - Guest: Ronnie Stoeferle
09 Dec 2023
00:59:00
Gold has been rallying hard alongside bonds in October and November, but who are the buyers? Retail or central banks? We discuss the Gold outlook with the author of In Gold We Trust, Ronnie Stoeferle of Incrementum Funds
On top of that, we discuss the situation in Guyana and the ramifications for our suffering oil longs.
Find out more at www.stenoresearch.com - always 14 days free trial access to our research
Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Moller
Guest: Ronnie Stoferle of Incrementum Funds
#26 - Are central banks asleep at the wheel? Guest: Cathie Wood
03 Dec 2023
00:51:28
We are joined by the renowned Tech investor Cathie Woods of ARK to discuss the rally in duration heavy equity assets through 2023. Will the rally continue if the Fed is done hiking? And will US Treasury markets also deliver better returns in 2024?
All that amidst the turbulence from the OPEC meeting.
#25 - Why is offshore wind not performing? Guest: Suriya Jayanti
26 Nov 2023
01:01:02
We host the former Chief of the Energy unit at the US Embassy in Kiev and co-founder of the Eney LCC, Suriya Jayanti for a discussion of the malaise in offshore wind markets. Why is wind energy suffering and is China to blame?
Tune in as we discuss the future energy mix in Europe and the US in light of recent developments and how it is likely to impact your portfolio.
Macro Mondays #59 - Stop worrying about employment and look forward!
29 Jul 2024
00:37:54
We take a closer look at last weeks correction and the outlook for risk assets. Furthermore, we dive into this week's BoJ and Fed Meetings and preview the non-farm payrolls and ISM manufacturing numbers. Hear why you should stop worrying about employment figures and look forward instead!
Find our Crypto coverage here - https://stenoresearch.com/category/crypto-moves/
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#24 - The End of US Outperformance? - Guest: Mike Green
19 Nov 2023
00:58:05
We host the great Mike Green for a talk on the outlook for the strong-going US economy in comparison to Europe and Asia.
We also cover the softer-than-expected CPI prints and the subsequent rally in equities and take a victory lap on our Germany trade.
To see our full model portfolio and access all our research, sign up for a FREE 2-week trial at www.stenoresearch.com.
Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Møller Guest: Mike Green, Simplify Asset Management
#23 - Are central banks insolvent? Guest: Dario Perkins
12 Nov 2023
00:58:29
We are joined by one of the best central bank watchers in the world, Dario Perkins of TS Lombard to discuss whether negative equity in central banks practically matter.
Dario says theoretically no, but practically yes while also introducing his "Perkins rule" for recession watching.
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Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Emil Møller Guest. Dario Perkins Special guest: Mads Eberhardt
#22 - Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! - Guest: Weston Nakamura
05 Nov 2023
00:59:16
The Bank of Japan is the only major currency authority in the post-COVID era to fight back against USD strength via intervention - and win. Can they pull it off again? We host the great Weston Nakamura for a deep-dive into the Japanese monetary and fiscal policy.
Towards the end, we give an update on our current positioning and the portfolio outlook for the remainder of 2023.
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Check out Weston's analysis on his substack right here:
#21 - Is the US Treasury onslaught over? - Guest: Bob Elliott, Unlimited Funds
29 Oct 2023
01:04:36
We host the great Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to a deep dive into the outlook for US Treasuries. What does the new House speaker and upcoming appropriations talks mean for markets and treasuries and how will the US fund yet another war? We also discuss the newest inflations trends and how we position ourselves in these testing times.
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Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Moller Guest: Bob Elliott, Unlimited Funds
#20 - Math and why does it matter? - Guest: Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank
22 Oct 2023
00:37:30
Live from his vacation home in sunny Spain, Andreas hosts the great Steen Jakobsen of Saxo Bank to a talk on commodities, positioning and in particular "Inflation math". Why are we so slow to adjusting our thinking to a high interest and high inflation environment and how should we adapt? Hear a great analysis from Steen as well as an update on our very own portfolio and current research here at Steno Research.
Host: Andreas Steno Larsen Guest: Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank
#19 - Energy Stocks are the New Bonds
15 Oct 2023
00:41:13
We host the great Warren Pies in a discussion on oil, bonds and everything related. Are energy stocks the new bonds and why? We take a closer look.
We also cover recent movements on our model portfolio and what changes we see coming up.
Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Moller Guest: 3Fourteen Research
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#18 - Higher energy prices triggering a recession?
08 Oct 2023
00:35:30
Will the energy price rally trigger the recession as consumer savings are depleted? We look at this week's EIA data, whether it can be trusted and how it all impacted the world of Macro and your portfolio.
The recession is likely in Q1 2024 still - and here's how we view and trade it!
Hosts. Andreas Steno and Emil Moller
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#17 - The Nuclear Option
01 Oct 2023
00:51:10
Is the day of reckoning for nuclear power here at last? After years of stagnation, markets are beginning to show some promise for nuclear technology. Today, we'll examine the state of nuclear energy and delve into the current conditions of the commodity and energy markets with John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management.
Remember to get 30% off your first three purchases at www.stenoresearch.com with the coupon code 'macro30'.
Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Emil Møller
#16 - Pause or not, and how to trade it? Guests: Dennis Lockhart and Frances Donald
24 Sep 2023
00:59:21
Are the central banks on pause or not? We cover all the CB decisions/non-decisions this week and talk to former President of the Atlanta Fed and former FOMC member Dennis Lockhart to get his view on the central bank situation. How does Dennis view the FOMC meeting and the US economy in general?
Afterwards, we call up Frances Donald, Global Chief Economist at Manulife Investment for some great analysis of the current situation. What are the right bets in markets and will risk assets surge as they did in 2007?
Remember to get 30% off your first three purchases at www.stenoresearch.com with the coupon code 'macro30'.
Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Emil Møller
#15 - Was that a pause from Lagarde?
17 Sep 2023
00:28:53
Has the anti-Europe trade become the consensus or is there still juice in the story? We discuss the prospects of European gas storages and the ongoing recession in the North of the continent. Can Europe surprise negatively and will that surprise the ECB? Should you actually watch Southern Europe and not Northern Europe from here on?
We also discuss the differences between the U.S. and European labour markest post-pandemic. Why are we not seeing ghost towns in Europe and what does this mean for markets?
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Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold
Macro Mondays #58 - What will Kamalanomics look like?
22 Jul 2024
00:42:11
Join the team talking Kamala on economics, the great rotation, the CCP plenum & much more. Remember to check out the links below.
Find our Crypto coverage here - https://stenoresearch.com/category/crypto-moves/
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#14 - Is the Second Inflation Wave Coming? - Guest: Mikael Sarwe, Nordea Bank
10 Sep 2023
00:43:07
Oil could be up as much as 25-30% during Q4 due to the production cuts out of Saudi Arabia and Russia. This is beginning to smell like the 1970's and we take a closer look at how that affects inflation and growth with the great Mikael Sarwe of Nordea Bank. We also discuss inflation outlooks in both the U.S. and Europe.
Use the exclusive offer Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription at www.stenoresearch.com
Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold Guest: Mikael Sarwe, Nordea
#13 - The Rasputin Effect - Guest: Michael Cembalest, J.P. Morgan
02 Sep 2023
00:37:32
Is the U.S. labour market finally crashing? What will it take to kill the U.S. economy? We ask Michael Cembalest of J.P. Morgan who explains The Rasputin Effect. We also cover the outlook for fiscal policy, interest rates and the short- and longterm effects of the Chips Act and IRA in this great interview. And of course - we give our take on how to allocate given all of this.
Use the exclusive offer Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription at www.stenoresearch.com
Hosts: Andreas Steno and Emil Møller Guest: Michael Cembalest
#12 - USD patriots vs. CNY patriots - Guest: Tony Nash
27 Aug 2023
00:55:34
Has the PBoC won against speculators in Chinese FX markets? And will equities stabilize due to the contained outflows from China? We invite Tony Nash, former Director at The Economist Intelligence Unit in Asia to discuss the evolving crisis in Beijing. Tony has extensive knowledge from working both in Singapore and China and sees this ongoing tug of war as a patriotic combat.
Finally, you get our weekly update on portfolio flows, where we elaborate why again prefer to short assets in our own neck of the woods in Europe.
Use the exclusive offer Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription at www.stenoresearch.com
#11 - Macro Sunday: 3 scenarios for the Chinese response to the RE malaise
20 Aug 2023
00:42:08
We host Michael Kao for a discussion on the Chinese tool-box and whether the 7.30 line in the sand will hold or not.
The situation is very binary. Either risk appetite will return or else you need to run for the hills.
Remeber that you can use Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription at