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Is the Risk-On Trade Breaking Down? | Macro Mondays: September 14, 2026
14 Sep 2026
00:30:55
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to discuss several key macro signals that are potentially shifting all at once. They dig into the outlook for oil flows, whether a new hiking cycle is starting to emerge, and what it all means for the risk-on trade. Be sure to check out the Steno Nowcasting Dashboard for the latest signals on growth, inflation, and liquidity, only on Real Vision!
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Timestamps: 00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold 00:07 - Are We F*cked? AI, Inflation, Oil, and Rate Hikes 02:25 - Dario Amodei’s AI Warning: Is the AI Boom About to Slow? 05:22 - Why AI CEOs May Be Hedging Political Risk Ahead of the IPOs 09:18 - Could the US Government End Up Backstopping the AI Buildout? 11:07 - Hardware vs Software: Who Loses If AI Development Slows? 15:23 - Fed Preview: Why a September Rate Hike Now Looks Likely 17:03 - Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Latest Oil Supply Shock 20:32 - Oil Above $100? Why Markets May Already Be Pricing the Worst 22:32 - What Kevin Warsh Could Signal After the Rate Hike 24:18 - What Usually Happens to Stocks After the Fed Starts Hiking? 25:39 - Why the Dollar Could Still Be the Trade to Fade 27:52 - Fed vs Global Central Banks: Why the US May Hike Less Than Everyone Else
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack Kevin Warsh’s surprisingly hawkish message at Jackson Hole and what it could mean for markets. They also turn to the latest escalation in the Middle East following U.S. attacks on Larka Island. Is the war restarting, and could renewed geopolitical risk disrupt the market setup just as investors were beginning to embrace the bull case?
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Timestamps: 00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold 00:23 - Kevin Warsh Turns Hawkish: Should Investors Pull Back on Risk? 02:01 - What Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Really Changed 03:31 - PCE vs CPI: Which Inflation Signal Should the Fed Trust? 06:22 - Warsh vs Bessent: The Battle Over Rates and Bond Yields 08:58 - September Rate Hike: Is the Market Overreading the Fed? 13:04 - Why One Rate Hike Probably Won’t Kill the Business Cycle 15:17 - US Strikes Larak Island: Is the Iran War Restarting? 16:46 - Strait of Hormuz, Crack Spreads, and the Next Inflation Trade 21:12 - South Korea Exports vs ISM: The AI Boom Is Still Running Hot 24:01 - Jobs Report Preview: Why Weak Payrolls May Not Stop the Fed 25:54 - ECB vs Fed: Why the Short-Dollar Trade Still Works
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to ask whether Friday’s stock market rally marks the return of a more bullish macro setup, and how far this move could run. They break down Scott Bessent’s latest intervention in bond markets and what it could mean for yields, the U.S. dollar, and global liquidity. Plus, they dig into the intensifying Anthropic vs. OpenAI battle and ask whether markets are getting another dose of “Warsh hopium” after Friday’s price action.
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Timestamps: 00:00 - Are We Finally Back? 00:59 - Bitcoin and Gold Start Moving Again 02:25 - Why the Debasement Trade Is Back 03:24 - What Treasury Buybacks Actually Do 04:53 - The TGA Changes the Liquidity Story 05:29 - Why Bank Liquidity Matters for Markets 07:19 - How Much Liquidity Could Treasury Add? 09:42 - Hedge Funds Become the Marginal Treasury Buyer 11:35 - Is This Sustainable for Bitcoin and Gold? 12:19 - Temporary vs. Permanent Liquidity 14:02 - How Big Could Bessent’s Buybacks Get? 16:46 - Andreas’ Weaker-Dollar Portfolio Setup 18:03 - OpenAI vs. Anthropic 24:14 - Iran, China, and the Geopolitical Spillover 28:06 - What Could Kevin Warsh Say at Jackson Hole? 29:07 - The Most Important Macro Chart Right Now 30:06 - Is the Fed About to Turn Less Hawkish?
Inflation Is Cooling, So What Is the Fed Seeing? | Macro Mondays: August 17, 2026
17 Aug 2026
00:30:33
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back for another episode of Macro Mondays, boiling down the latest topics, from why the Fed may still be overreading inflation risks to why Donald Trump ordered a pullback on military exercises in South Korea. Plus, Andreas lays out his favorite trades for the current macro regime.
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Timestamps: 00:00 - Goldilocks Is Back? Why Growth and Inflation Are Finally Aligning 05:02 - US Consumer Strength vs Record-Low Sentiment: What’s Really Going On 10:41 - Why the Fed Could Be Wrong-Footed by Falling Inflation 13:07 - Four Reasons US Inflation Is Cooling Faster Than Expected 18:45 - Could Goldilocks Change the Midterm Election Outlook? 19:36 - Trump, South Korea, and the Growing Risk to Asia’s AI Supply Chain 22:08 - High-Bandwidth Memory, China, and the US Export-Control Problem 24:31 - Micron, Memory Stocks, and Why the AI Trade May Still Be Early 26:34 - The Best Macro Trade Now: Own Inflation Where the Fed Can’t See It 29:31 - Why a Weaker Dollar Could Unlock the Next Leg of the Rally
Is the Economy Running Too Hot? | Macro Mondays: August 10, 2026
10 Aug 2026
00:26:08
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack a seemingly contradictory macro setup, with the economy running hot despite slowing jobs growth and fading inflation. They break down Andreas’ latest convictions on where we are in the business cycle, and whether Kevin Warsh and the Fed are misreading the setup.
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Timestamps: 00:23 - CPI Preview: Is Inflation Falling Faster Than Expected? 01:11 - Why Tariff Refunds Could Keep US Inflation Low 05:28 - Oil, Hormuz, and Why the Energy Shock Looks Over 09:21 - Fed Rate Hikes: Is Kevin Warsh Misreading the Inflation Setup? 12:22 - Jobs, Growth, and the World Cup Hangover 14:33 - Is the US Business Cycle Approaching a Peak? 18:17 - South Korea Semiconductor Exports: The AI Signal to Watch 20:19 - Why Slower AI Growth Could Still Be Bullish for Chip Stocks 22:33 - Hyperscaler CapEx: When Does the AI Spending Boom Actually Slow?
U.S. Rescues The Yen | Macro Mondays August 3, 2026
03 Aug 2026
00:26:29
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down a dramatic start to the week, beginning with the rare coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention to support the yen and what the market reaction says about currencies, rates, and the future of the carry trade. They Unpack Donald Trump’s decision to postpone planned strikes on Iran in favor of renewed talks, and examine the implosion of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s highly leveraged AI hedge fund and what this means for the AI trade.
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Timestamps: 00:00 - Monarch 01:23 - US Intervention to Support the Yen: What Markets Need to Know 04:45 - Why the US Stepped Into the Japanese Yen Market 06:03 - Iran Talks Resume as Trump Calls Off Planned Strikes 07:32 - The Sinus-Wave War: Why Markets Are Panicking Less 08:49 - Oil Flows, Strait of Hormuz, and the Risk Premium Fading 11:16 - What Trump Really Needs From a New Iran Deal 14:07 - Inflation Is Falling Faster Than the Fed Realizes 18:40 - Strong PMI, Higher Real Rates, and the Momentum Selloff 19:48 - Microsoft vs Alphabet: The AI CapEx Accounting Divide 22:21 - Why Memory Chips Could Be More Valuable Than GPUs 24:56 - Inside Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Hedge-Fund Implosion 26:08 - Global Macro Opportunities and Why the Dollar Could Weaken
China Just Shocked The AI Race | Macro Mondays: July 20, 2026
19 Jul 2026
00:30:29
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to examine the latest market topics, from how Kimi AI's breakthrough is reshaping the AI investment narrative to how escalations between the U.S. and Iran are reshaping energy markets. And what of Donald Trump's renewed accusations against China? Andreas and Mikkel get into it all.
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Timestamps: 01:30 - Kimi AI Shock: Has China Taken the Lead? 02:28 - Kimi K3 vs ChatGPT and Claude: What the Benchmarks Really Show 05:30 - Why China’s AI Catch-Up Could Boost Hardware Demand 08:22 - Software vs Semiconductors: Who Actually Loses From Cheaper AI? 14:39 - Momentum Crash: What Triggered the Sell-Off in AI Stocks? 16:43 - Iran War Escalates as the IRGC Rebuilds Its War Chest 21:24 - How Long Can the US Withstand the Oil Supply Disruption? 23:45 - Why Oil Is Unlikely to Break Above $100 Again 28:06 - Semiconductors, AI Infrastructure, and the Next Portfolio Opportunities
Why Did the Iran War Restart? | Macro Mondays July 13, 2026
13 Jul 2026
00:31:45
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back with the latest Macro Mondays to discuss the latest escalation in the Middle East and what the impact might be; a slowdown in Korean chip exports and what it tells us about the health of the AI trade; and a worrying new trend in the U.S.-China rivalry.
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Timestamps: 00:22 - Strait of Hormuz Crisis Returns: Should Markets Worry? 02:24 - Trump Wants the US to Control the Strait of Hormuz 03:53 - Oil Flows, Dark Tankers, and the Real Supply Risk 06:12 - How Long Can the US and China Cover the Oil Shortfall? 08:29 - Jet Fuel, Diesel, and the Inflation Risk Markets Are Missing 10:22 - CPI Preview: Could Inflation Surprise Sharply Lower? 15:23 - Memory Stocks, Semiconductor Demand, and the AI CapEx Boom 19:18 - South Korea Exports: Has the Memory Trade Finally Peaked? 22:58 - ASML Earnings and the Next Test for AI Stocks 24:42 - US-China Decoupling, Critical Metals, and the Dollar Trade
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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle one of the biggest questions in markets right now: have central banks misread the macro backdrop? They break down why inflation may be falling faster than policymakers expect, whether investors are once again wrong on oil, and discuss the political and economic implications of the FIFA World Cup.
00:22 - Macro Mondays: Inflation, Oil, Korea, and the Memory Trade 03:41 - Inflation Is Rolling Over Faster Than Markets Expect 08:17 - Oil Outlook: Why the Hormuz Shock Never Became a Crisis 10:19 - Strait of Hormuz Bypass Trade and China’s Oil Buying Strike 13:03 - Why Iran Has Already Lost Leverage Over Hormuz 20:48 - Meta, AI Compute Demand, and Why CapEx Isn’t Slowing Down 22:57 - Korea Exports, HBM Demand, and the Next Leg of the Memory Trade 26:44 - Samsung Earnings, Hynix Listings, and What Comes Next for AI Stocks
Is Everyone Wrong About the Dollar? | Macro Mondays: June 26, 2026
29 Jun 2026
00:30:34
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back in an episode of Macro Mondays that covers why everyone is wrong-footed on U.S. dollar positioning, what the latest developments in the U.S.–Iran ceasefire are, and previews a consequential week for markets ahead, packed with Manufacturing PMI, Nonfarm Payrolls data, and Kevin Warsh's speech.
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00:22 - Macro Mondays Returns: Dollar, Hormuz, and Kevin Warsh Preview 03:01 - June Winners and Losers: Memory Stocks, Biotech, and the Dollar 05:11 - Is the Hormuz War Back On or Is Oil Still Flowing? 09:11 - Is Everyone Wrong on the US Dollar? 13:34 - Kevin Warsh’s Big Test: Will the Fed Pivot Again? 17:42 - Jobs Report Preview: Why Payrolls Could Surprise Lower 20:32 - How to Position Your Portfolio Heading Into Summer Vacation 23:30 - AI Trade Check-In: Token Prices, Micron, and Memory Demand 27:30 - Apple, China Memory Chips, and the Next Consumer Scarcity Risk
Is Oil Still Flowing? | Macro Mondays: Monday, June 22, 2026
22 Jun 2026
00:23:31
Andreas Steno is back flying solo again to answer the question that matters most for markets right now: Is the oil still flowing? Andreas examines what we actually know about energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, how oil markets have responded, and why the feared supply shock never materialized.
01:00 - Macro Mondays: Is the Oil Still Flowing? What Markets Need to Know 03:22 - Strait of Hormuz Reopens? What the Shipping Data Really Shows 05:25 - Oil, Jet Fuel, and Fertilizer Prices Are Rolling Over Fast 07:51 - Falling Inflation Changes the Entire Macro Regime 09:24 - Why Central Banks Still Haven’t Caught Up to the Disinflation Shift 13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs and the New AI Arms Race 17:51 - SpaceX IPO Mania and What It Says About Risk Appetite 19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Still Have Room to Run 22:45 - South Korea Exports and Why Semiconductors Still Look Strong 17:15 - Defining Therapeutics, Psychedelics, and the Next Big Micro Trade 19:35 - MicroStrategy, Bitcoin Risk, and What Actually Matters Now
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Is The Iran-US Deal Actually Done?! with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays
15 Jun 2026
00:25:00
Andreas Steno is back to break down recent market volatility, unpacking all the key drivers, from global liquidity dynamics to the evolving peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, which has seemingly opened the Strait of Hormuz. But is the deal actually done!?
00:07 - US-Iran Deal Nears: What It Means for Markets 02:00 - Inside the 60-Day Iran Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening 04:37 - Oil Market Surplus: Why Crude Could Fall Below $70 08:02 - Iran Sanctions Lifted: The New Supply Shock for Global Oil 10:56 - ECB Rate Hike Timing Looks Worse After Hormuz Breakthrough 13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs: Why AI Models Are Becoming Too Big to Fail 17:51 - SpaceX IPO Surge and What It Says About Risk Appetite 19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Have Further to Run 21:08 - AI Token Pricing, OpenAI, and Anthropic Ahead of IPO Season 22:45 - South Korea Exports, Semiconductors, and the Next Leg of the AI Trade
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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down Red Friday and whether the market reaction to the latest jobs report was justified. They unpack what the data is really saying about growth, labor markets, liquidity, and the path for risk assets heading into summer.
Timestamps: 01:05 - Macro Mondays: Red Friday, Jobs Shock, and Middle East Risk 03:15 - Real Vision Updates, Alpha Access, and This Week’s Schedule 05:40 - What Actually Caused Friday’s Market Selloff? 07:21 - Nasdaq Damage, CTA Flows, and Why the Straight-Line Rally Is Over 09:45 - Was Friday a VaR Shock and What Happens Next? 12:06 - The Jobs Report, World Cup Hiring, and Why Payrolls Beat Expectations 14:07 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed, and Why Rate Cuts Just Got Harder 17:38 - SpaceX IPO, Big Tech Equity Raises, and the Liquidity Squeeze 22:01 - The One Chart to Watch: AI Token Pricing and the Data Center Trade 24:37 - Iran, Israel, and Why Markets Still Aren’t Panicking 27:24 - Oil, Fertilizer, and Why the Hormuz Crisis Trade Keeps Fading
3 Banger Trades For June | Macro Mondays: June 1, 2026
01 Jun 2026
00:29:55
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the key macro themes driving markets into June. From the latest developments in Iran to bottlenecks and bitcoin, they unpack what could become the next key trades, and whether liquidity and macro data can continue to support the meteoric rise in risk assets.
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01:06 - Macro Mondays: Iran Talks, ISM Strength, and June Trade Ideas 02:30 - State of the Union Preview: Why Macro Still Drives Everything 04:34 - Strong ISM Print and Why US Manufacturing Keeps Accelerating 06:00 - Iran Talks Break Down Again: How Fragile Is the Ceasefire? 07:30 - Why Markets Are Still Taking the Iran Headlines in Stride 10:16 - How Long Can the Global Economy Handle a Closed Hormuz? 12:34 - June Outlook: Thematics, Trade Setups, and What Still Works 13:20 - Industrial Robotics, Real-World AI, and the Next Training Bottleneck 16:54 - Liquidity in June: Treasury Cash Drawdown and Easier Leverage 20:19 - Why Bitcoin Is the Only Risk Asset Not Joining the Rally 22:53 - Three Trades for June: Security Software, Server Makers, and Drones 27:19 - Claude, ServiceNow, and the New AI-Driven Momentum Trade
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Is Iran War Deal Imminent? | Macro Mondays: May 25, 2025
25 May 2026
00:29:21
Real Vision’s Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno Larsen break down the latest market reaction to reports of a possible Strait of Hormuz deal, what it could mean for oil and inflation, and why the next phase of the market may depend on whether Middle East tensions truly de-escalate. They also explore a surprising inflation driver in hardware and semiconductors, explain why consumer spending is holding up better than many expect, and share the sectors they’re watching next.
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Timestamps: 00:00 - Monarch Sponsor 01:00 - Macro Mondays: Iran, Hormuz, and Global Markets 01:31 - Strait of Hormuz Deal Rumors and Market Reaction 02:50 - Europe’s Heat Wave and the Energy Debate 04:21 - Trump, Iran, and the Weekend Negotiation Push 06:01 - Can Trump Sell an Iran Deal to Republicans? 07:12 - Abraham Accords, Iran, and Middle East Strategy 07:59 - Oil Drops, Bond Yields Fall, and Markets Rally 09:11 - Are Iranian Ships Actually Moving Through Hormuz? 10:58 - Why Markets Care More About Hormuz Than Politics 13:03 - Inflation Outlook: Energy vs Consumer Prices 14:20 - Kevin Warsh, AI, and the Disinflation Argument 17:45 - Which Sectors Benefit Most From Inflation? 18:45 - Why AI Hardware Is Suddenly Inflationary 21:08 - The AI Memory Boom and Rising Electronics Prices 23:39 - Why Hardware Stocks Have Outperformed in 2026 24:02 - What Happens if Inflation Peaks in June? 25:20 - Consumer Spending Is Holding Up Surprisingly Well 27:01 - Amazon, Tesla, and Luxury Stocks as the Next Trade 28:11 - PCE Inflation Data: What Markets Need This Week 29:28 - Final Thoughts: Waiting on the Iran Deal
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Are Markets Ignoring Inflation? | Macro Mondays: May 18, 2026
18 May 2026
00:31:01
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the aftermath of the highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. They also dive into rising bond yields, whether markets should start worrying about rates again, and if the latest inflation reports signal something more persistent beneath the surface.
Timestamps: 00:00 - Monarch Sponsor 01:05 - Macro Mondays: Trump-Xi, Rates, Inflation, and Iran Hopeium 02:40 - Andrew Tate’s 30-Year Bond Trade and Why Long Yields Matter 06:03 - Why Rising Bond Yields May Not Mean What They Used To 10:20 - Hot CPI, PPI, and Why the Fed Still May Not Hike 14:40 - Iran Talks, Oil, and What Could Restart the Rally 16:39 - Why China-US Cooperation Is Keeping the Oil Market Balanced 19:22 - Will Trump Pivot Back to Rate Cuts After Iran? 23:06 - Semiconductors: Is It Time to Take Profits? 25:13 - Bernie Sanders, AI Data Centers, and the First Political Pushback 29:28 - UK Bonds, Fiscal Worries, and Why Political Risk May Be Overstated
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It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like COVID! | Macro Monday's May 11, 2026
11 May 2026
00:30:33
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down why today’s macro environment is starting to resemble 2021, from renewed concerns around the Hanta virus to rising input costs and supply chain pressures. Additionally, they assess the highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, and monitor the latest developments in peace talks for both Iran and Ukraine.
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Timestamps: 01:07 - Why 2026 Is Starting to Look Like 2021 03:17 - Hantavirus, Covid Flashbacks, and Why Markets Should Ignore It 06:30 - Easy Dollar Liquidity, SLR Reform, and the Return of Risk Appetite 11:27 - Tomorrow’s CPI Report and the Next Inflation Wave 13:29 - Iran, Oil, and Why Hormuz Is Fading as a Market Driver 15:03 - Trump-Xi Meeting: The Underreported Macro Event of the Week 17:30 - Best Portfolio Hedges for US-China Decoupling 22:21 - Iran, Ukraine, China: Could Easing Geopolitics Extend the Rally? 25:12 - End Consumer Scarcity: The New AI and Semiconductor Trade
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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the latest shifts in global markets, starting with fresh developments in the Strait of Hormuz, then they turn to the inflation outlook, and they tackle the AI narrative, asking whether the surge in capex and demand from mega-cap tech signals a bubble, as markets continue to climb despite widespread skepticism.
Timestamps:
01:07 - Macro Mondays: Hormuz Moves, Inflation Risks, and the AI Bubble 02:02 - Real Vision Portfolio Update and Why April Was Strong 02:44 - Microsoft Earnings, OpenAI Backlog, and the AI CapEx Debate 04:36 - Meta’s AI Spending Problem and Why the Backlog Isn’t There 07:06 - What Could Actually Burst the AI Bubble? 08:18 - Fed, ECB, and BOE Delay Hiking Talk as Hormuz Risk Builds 09:24 - Why the Fed Won’t Cut Rates Yet Under Kevin Warsh 10:19 - Project Freedom: The US Plan to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz 11:13 - Trump’s Hormuz Announcement and Iran Missile Headlines 13:08 - Can Trump’s Move Break the Strait of Hormuz Deadlock? 14:20 - Why Iran Risks Looking Like the Aggressor if It Fires on Commercial Ships 16:27 - Why the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Hits Emerging Markets Hardest 19:17 - Why the West Can Still Pay Up for Oil and Food Supply 20:39 - Energy Shock, Imported Inflation, and the Real Risk to Western Economies 23:53 - Trump-Xi Summit Risks, Global Trade Chokepoints, & China Dependencies 26:46 - Solar Panels, Rare Earths, and the New Supply Chain Power Game
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The Rally Nobody Believes In | Macro Mondays: April 27, 2026
27 Apr 2026
00:28:49
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz as a risk for global energy flows and supply chains continues to dominate headlines. They also zoom out to the global growth picture, exploring why sentiment remains bearish, yet equities continue to grind higher.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Welcome to Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosendvold 01:06 - Real Vision Pro Portfolio Tracker 03:55 - Laughs of the Week: X Doom Posts & AI Slop 07:57 - Festus Montana: Data Center Backlash 09:30 - Energy Trade: Nuclear, Fuel Cells & Bloom Energy 11:17 - Macro Pivot: Iran Stalemate & Strategic Patience 13:27 - Crude & Jet Fuel On-Water Storage Analysis 15:51 - Negative Natural Gas Prices in Texas vs 2022 Crisis 17:46 - Geopolitical Risk vs Market Impact Disconnect 19:10 - Investor Sentiment Disconnect at All-Time Highs 21:14 - Goldman Prime Book: Low Hedge Fund Leverage 23:26 - Semiconductors Rally: South Korea Export Surge 25:10 - Mag 7 Cloud CapEx & The Next Power Trade 26:46 - EU & US Grid Operators Rationing New Plugins 27:30 - Live Show Copenhagen & Wrap-Up
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War, Oil & Liquidity - What’s Driving Markets Now! | Macro Monday: April 20, 2026
20 Apr 2026
00:28:08
As the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran falters, bringing oil flows back under pressure, Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the geopolitical fallout, from jet fuel shortages to shifting supply dynamics.
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Timestamps: 00:00 - Welcome to Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosendvold 01:06 - Is the War Back On? Jet Fuel Shortages and What’s Holding Markets Up 01:55 - Psychedelics Stocks Surge After Trump Executive Order 03:05 - This Week on Real Vision: Geopolitics AMA, Charting Macro, and Jim Bianco 04:24 - Iran Reverses Course and Closes the Strait of Hormuz Again 05:33 - Ship Attacks, Tanker Seizures, and Why the Weekend Escalation Matters 06:06 - Trump, Iran Talks, and the Latest Strait of Hormuz Flow Data 07:14 - Why the US and Western Economies Need Less Oil Than Before 09:20 - Jet Fuel Shortages in Europe: How Serious Is the Risk? 11:24 - Europe’s Flight Crunch and Why Airfares Are Exploding 13:19 - Southern Europe’s Tourism Hit and the Macro Impact of Fewer Flights 14:49 - What Europe’s 2022 Energy Shock Tells Us About Today’s Crisis 16:33 - Why This Energy Disruption Still Looks Manageable 17:36 - Can the Stock Market Rally Continue From Here? 18:04 - Why This Is Still a Hated Rally With Investors Underweight Risk 19:50 - Dollar Liquidity, Fed Reserve Management, and What’s Fueling Markets 22:19 - SLR Reform, Bank Leverage, and the Quiet Driver of the Rally 24:28 - ISM, Regional Fed Surveys, and Why US Growth Still Looks Strong 25:06 - Fed, ECB, and BOE: Are Rate Hikes Now Off the Table? 27:23 - Final Outlook: Talks on Wednesday and a Still-Bullish Macro View
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Iran Talks Collapse: A New Surge in Inflation? | Macro Mondays: April 13, 2026
13 Apr 2026
00:30:36
Geopolitics is still in focus after failed talks between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan over the weekend and President Donald Trump's threat of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz from today. Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the implications of another oil spike, whether it could bring an inflation shock, and what it could mean for risk assets.
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Why Markets Are Resilient? | Macro Mondays: April 6, 2026
06 Apr 2026
00:30:38
As tensions between the U.S. and Iran drive volatility in oil markets and raise fresh inflation concerns, Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the implications for global growth, central bank policy, and risk assets.
** We apologize for the less-than-optimal audio, Andreas was traveling and will be back in his normal setup next week **
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Steno Research founder and CEO, Andreas Steno, is back with co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, to dive into the latest headlines in macro. As the Iran war enters its fifth week, Andreas and Mikkel analyze a growing disconnect between market pricing and underlying macro risks, identifying key signals that investors may be overlooking.
The Real Risk Goes Beyond War | Macro Mondays: March 23, 2026
23 Mar 2026
00:30:46
Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno is back with his co-host, Steno Research’s head of geopolitics, Mikkel Rosenvold, to break down the latest global drivers in macro. In this episode, with bond yields already rising and central banks under pressure, Andreas and Mikkel assess whether global markets are underpricing the inflation and energy shocks caused by the closure of the Straight of Hormuz.
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Markets Confront Iran Risk and Fed Policy | Macro Mondays: March 16, 2026
16 Mar 2026
00:29:55
Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold to discuss the growing risks in Iran and what oil supply disruptions could mean for global markets. Plus, they dissect the state of U.S.-China relations and preview a pivotal week for central banks around the world.
🔥 And don't forget to check out The Arena, our new trade idea league. Get in on the action, and you could be eligible for prizes totaling $25,000. To learn more and join, visit realvision.com/arena.
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How High Will Oil Prices Go? | Macro Mondays: March 9, 2026
09 Mar 2026
00:31:50
Steno Research founder Andreas Steno is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, the firm's partner and head of geopolitics, to examine the latest news from the Iran war, the surging oil prices and their impact on the wider markets and global economy, U.S. labor data, and other market-moving headlines.
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Markets React to War in Iran | Macro Mondays: March 2, 2026
02 Mar 2026
00:36:56
Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno is back with his co-host, Mikkel Rosenvold, to break down how the U.S. and Israel's escalating military action against Iran is impacting markets — from oil to equities and the broader macro regime.
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Do Markets Care About Trump’s Tariffs? | Macro Mondays: February 23, 2026
23 Feb 2026
00:27:51
Andreas Steno Larsen is back with co-host Mikkel Rosenvold to break down the biggest forces driving markets, from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions to President Trump’s global tariff agenda. They also dive into the latest U.S. economic data, shifting rate expectations, and what the gold-to-bitcoin ratio is signaling.
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Andreas Steno, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics, on the latest Macro Mondays. They break down what happened at the Munich Security Conference, Ray Dalio's X article on a changing world order, inflation and job reports, and the timeline for the liquidity impact from the Treasury General Account.
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Oil, Metals, and More Geopolitical Risk | Macro Mondays: Feb. 2, 2026
02 Feb 2026
00:29:31
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research break down the mounting U.S.–Iran tensions, the implications for oil, the U.S.–China decoupling, strategic mineral stockpiles, and supply-chain weaponization. They cover the biggest forces reshaping global markets – including today's surprising ISM print.
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Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics at Steno Research, breaks down the latest forces driving global markets with insights from the annual World Economic Forum, a preview of this week’s FOMC meeting, and an on-the-ground perspective from Real Vision’s Crypto Gathering in Miami.
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Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research break down the macro headlines shaping markets. Discussing Trump’s renewed tariff threats and the geopolitical fallout around Greenland, to rising Japanese yields, and how AI is shifting from hardware to software.
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☀️ Crypto Gathering Miami 2026: not everyone wants the full conference sprint. That’s why there’s the Social Pass ($300): welcome drinks, beach party, and Drinks with @RaoulGMI LIVE 🍷 ☀️ Right now it’s BOGO... bring a friend or split the cost ☀️ Get it now: https://rvtv.io/49QZAGI
Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold break down a bombshell start to 2026 as tensions between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration escalate. From Powell’s extraordinary public response to DOJ pressure to what it means for Fed independence, the U.S. dollar, gold, silver, and Bitcoin, Andreas and Mikkel unpack the macro consequences.
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The first Macro Mondays of 2026 kicks off with global markets already on edge. Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the dramatic developments in Venezuela, the implications for oil markets, and what this signals about U.S. foreign policy momentum heading into the year.
A volatile start to 2026 as geopolitics, oil, and liquidity collide.
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It’s the final Macro Monday show of 2025…! Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research are here to recap what we learned after a volatile year in global markets — and what they’re preparing for in 2026.
From the entire team at Real Vision, have a happy holidays — we’ll see you in 2026!
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Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, to break down the latest headlines after another tough week for markets. From private credit to Japanese bonds, the guys explore what's causing the continuation of a selloff.
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Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno Larsen and partner & head of geopolitics Mikkel Rosenvold return for another edition of Macro Mondays. Andreas and Mikkel begin by breaking down the latest figures from Black Friday and just what's going on with the current drawdown.
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Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, to break down the latest news and forces driving global markets after another tough week for markets.
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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research break down the latest news and trends driving the latest drawdown in global risk assets. They dig into the unfinished China trade deal, persistent liquidity pressures, and whether this all sets the stage for a Fed rate cut in December.
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Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, and Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, are back to break down the latest macro news and market drivers after a brutal week for risk assets.
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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research dissect the latest macro news and trends driving global markets. The Fed cut rates as expected, but was Powell’s hawkish tone a surprise?
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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research unpack the renewed tariff talks with China and Canada, fresh inflation data shaking market expectations, and the other key macro forces impacting your portfolio decisions.
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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research are back to break down whether we’re entering a new AI bubble, what the Fed’s next move means for markets, and why retail investors are driving the rally while institutions hesitate
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Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research break down the latest news and trends driving markets, from inflation and labor data to Bitcoin’s rally and the Japanese bond market action.
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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research preview the upcoming Fed interest rate decision and break down everyting driving markets right now. Here's what's on the docket: Why the current U.S. equity rally is still the “most-hated” on Wall Street, how AI-driven CapEx could reshape the business cycle, shifting U.S.-China trade ties, dollar positioning, and what it all means for crypto and risk assets.
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Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research dissect the latest news and trends after another weak jobs reports injected more uncertainty into markets. From what the labor data means for rate cuts to oil’s contrarian setup and political crises in France and the UK, they connect the dots.
Crypto Volatility, China Rallies... Is the U.S. Next?
26 Aug 2025
00:31:28
Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold of Steno Research are back to break down the fallout from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole press conference, Trump’s attacks on Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and the growing political pressure on the FOMC. They also dive into U.S. equity flows, crypto volatility, China’s stock rally, and why investors may be underestimating America’s rebound.
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