Macro Minutes – Détails, épisodes et analyse

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Macro Minutes

RBC Capital Markets

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Fréquence : 1 épisode/15j. Total Éps: 111

Macro Minutes - RBC Capital Markets macro and market strategy series – explores the latest financial market and economic developments. Listen today to hear high conviction insights from RBC’s desk strategists and research analysts.

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Super-Sized

Saison 1 · Épisode 61

mardi 24 septembre 2024 • Durée 20:15

The Fed delivered a super-sized rate cut to the start of the cycle last week. More likely they go back to smaller 25bp moves if labour data remains resilient. But another large move is not out of the realm of possibility. We think the BoC is on course for 5 straight 25’s but they could front-load with a 50bp move in October or December if growth data shows a large undershoot vs potential. The BoE and ECB seem set to take things slow, but a larger cut is a non-zero chance.

Participants:

Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

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Back in Sync

Saison 1 · Épisode 60

mardi 10 septembre 2024 • Durée 23:55

With the Fed and ECB set to follow the BoC’s lead with 25bp cuts of their own, a number of the major central banks are now back in sync. So far, these central banks look to be proceeding gradually along their respective cutting paths, but the possibility of larger cuts still loom should economic conditions start to deteriorate. Meanwhile, others are proving even more cautious, with the next cut from central banks such as the RBA and BoE even further afield.

Participants:

Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

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Breaking Rank

Saison 1 · Épisode 51

mardi 16 avril 2024 • Durée 20:26

Expectations for Fed rate cuts this year are wavering as US economic data continues to come in hot. But that economic performance hasn’t necessarily been replicated in other regions. Will other major central banks feel pressure to keep in step with the Fed or start marching to the beat of their own drummers?

Participants:

Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

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When?

Saison 1 · Épisode 50

mardi 2 avril 2024 • Durée 19:41

The question on everyone’s mind is when central banks will start cutting rates. Over the past month, market pricing has progressively gravitated from a near certainty that the BoC and Fed would cut by June to now under a 50% chance. In the UK the pricing for a June cut is higher than a month ago but less than two weeks ago, while for the ECB the market has been resolute in pricing a June start date.

Participants:

Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
Lori Calvasina (Research),Head of U.S. Equity Strategy

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

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The Right Balance (Sheet)

Saison 1 · Épisode 49

mardi 19 mars 2024 • Durée 20:06

While markets are parsing through central bank communication for the timing and pace of rate cuts, the future of central bank balance sheets is increasingly in focus as well. What will happen with quantitative tightening? And what will balance sheets look like in a future steady state?

Participants:

Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
Robert Thompson (Research), Australia Macro Rates Strategist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

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Are We There Yet?

Saison 1 · Épisode 48

mardi 5 mars 2024 • Durée 17:32

It appears that markets have retraced some of their expectations for central bank action much closer to where speakers are guiding investors - in other words, we are trading much closer to what most people would consider 'fair value'. We sense a long bias in the fixed income markets and the question whether this is a sign of things to come offers itself. Meanwhile, FX markets are trading sideways and question about what can break the lethargy should be asked.

Participants:

Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
Gordon Scott (Desk Strategy), Euro Area Economist
Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

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Not So Fast

Saison 1 · Épisode 47

mardi 20 février 2024 • Durée 14:28

Markets came into 2024 pricing in aggressive central bank cutting cycles. But continued resilience in growth and labor market data, along with some recent wobbles in the downward march of inflation has markets (and policymakers) pumping the brakes.

Participants:

Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
Michael Reid (Desk Strategy), US Economist
Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

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Easing into Easing

Saison 1 · Épisode 46

mardi 6 février 2024 • Durée 16:04

The narrative from central banks has decidedly shifted from the risk of further tightening to signaling the next move will be lower. To paraphrase the message Powell gave us last week – we have confidence, and our confidence has increased that inflation will meet our objective, but we need more confidence before we start to cut. With central banks expecting a soft landing, they are gently easing into the easing cycle. When will central banks have enough confidence to pull the trigger & where will policy rates ultimately land?

Participants:

Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

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A Delicate Balance

Saison 1 · Épisode 45

mardi 23 janvier 2024 • Durée 21:50

Focus continues on the timing and depth of central bank rate cuts as they try to engineer soft landings for economies across the globe. Central bank balance sheets and QT end timing in different jurisdictions have become increasingly topical as well. How do equity markets navigate this uncertain environment?

Participants:

Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy Analyst
Michael Reid (Desk Strategy), US Economist
Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

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Too Good to be True!

Saison 1 · Épisode 44

mardi 9 janvier 2024 • Durée 18:12

Bond markets and equity markets have rallied sharply at the tail end of 2023 essentially based on a ‘soft landing’ scenario that sees inflation back at target as early as Q2 2024 whilst growth is weakening but not descending into a fully-fledged recession. This allows global central to cut rates – according to current market pricing – as early as March/April and will see up to 150bp of rate cuts before the year is out from the Fed and ECB respectively with other central banks hard on their heels. That being said, early in 2024, most parts of financial markets struggled to continue where 2023 left off – and we think for good reasons. Incoming data was not as weak as some might have hoped for – particularly in Europe – central bank speakers have been rowing back some of the dovish rhetoric and the usual and fully expected bond supply wave seems to leave some footprints in markets nevertheless. 10y bond yields have risen some 25-30bp since the low just after Christmas and credit as well as equity markets have given back some gains already.

Participants:

Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
Gordon Scott (Desk Strategy), Euro Area Economist
Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
Andrea Marcheggiano (Desk Strategy), Director Capital Markets Advisory

Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

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Macro Minutes – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Détails du podcast

Classements récents

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Liens partagés entre épisodes et podcasts

Qualité et score du flux RSS

Historique des publications

Derniers épisodes publiés

Podcasts et contenus similaires

Podcasts Similaires Basées sur le Contenu

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Podcasts Similaires Basées sur le Contenu