With less than a month to go before one of the most consequential presidential elections in US history, Lowy Institute experts Lydia Khalil, Hervé Lemahieu and Sam Roggeveen sit down to discuss what a potential Trump or Harris administration would mean for the United States and its relationships with allies and adversaries. Drawing on two recently published Lowy Institute interactive features in which Institute experts assess the policies, outlooks and approach to the world of the candidates, they unpack what two very different yet similarly enigmatic candidates would bring to the world stage. You can read more here.

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Each year, the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index (API) provides the authoritative guide to the distribution of power in Asia. In the first of a three part series on the API, index authors Susannah Patton, Jack Sato and Hervé Lemahieu discuss the findings of the latest edition, including the outlook for US-China competition, the relative influence of India and Japan, and how other regional countries fare overall. 

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The Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen spoke with Sweden’s defence minister, Pål Jonson, during his recent visit to Australia. Prior to his ministerial career, Jonson worked in Sweden’s Defence Research Agency, and his depth of knowledge about not just European security but also Asia comes through in this interview. Roggeveen asks Jonson why Swedes should care about Asia, whether Europe is doing enough to help Ukraine, and why Sweden chose to join NATO now.

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Tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea have reached their highest level in more than a decade. The risk of escalation, even conflict, between the two countries could test the credibility of the Philippines’ alliance with the United States.

In the first of a series focused on the South China Sea tensions, Susannah Patton, Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, discusses the Philippines’ strategy with Jonathan Malaya, Assistant Director-General of the National Security Council of the Philippines and the spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea Taskforce, the key body that coordinates Philippine agencies’ policy on the South China Sea.

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Since the Albanese government was elected, Australia has focused on stabilising relations with China. But there are limits to Australia’s ability to successfully pursue stabilisation if there remains a spectre of confrontation between its largest trading partner and its key security guarantor, the United States.  Do either the US or China genuinely want to stabilise bi-lateral ties? And if they do, what is standing in the way? One reason is Taiwan, and Beijing’s campaign of encirclement of the island, a slow-motion strategy which, while it does not attract the same headlines as a possible invasion, can nevertheless achieve the same ends.  Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute, discusses US-China competition, Taiwan, and more with Washington-based China scholars, Jude Blanchette and Dan Blumenthal.

Jude Blanchette is the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dan Blumenthal is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who served as the senior director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia at the Pentagon in the George W. Bush administration.

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In this episode, Michel Barnier, Europe’s former point man on Brexit negotiations, speaks with Hervé Lemahieu. Four years on, what lessons should the West draw from Brexit? How united is Europe in the face of populism at home and with new challenges on its doorstep, including the war in Ukraine? And are China and Russia two faces of the same threat?

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In this episode, the Lowy Institute’s Research Director Hervé Lemahieu talks with Ryan Neelam, the Institute’s Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program about the findings of the recently launched 2024 Global Diplomacy Index. What do diplomatic networks tell us about superpower rivalry, geopolitical competition, and a more multipolar world order? How do nations use diplomacy to build influence, and where are they targeting their investments? What does Australia’s relative underinvestment in diplomacy mean for its ability to advance its interests? In a broad-ranging discussion, Hervé and Ryan explore the often overlooked role of diplomacy in shaping the modern world.

2024 Global Diplomacy Index: https://globaldiplomacyindex.lowyinstitute.org/

2024 Global Diplomacy Index – Key Findings Report: https://globaldiplomacyindex.lowyinstitute.org/key_findings

America, take heed — China is winning the diplomacy race:  Financial Times opinion piece by Ryan Neelam: https://www.ft.com/content/2a63a19b-1fed-4c1a-9f75-e09f5708a8c6

Australia’s ‘diplomatic deficit’ harms our global presence: Canberra Times opinion piece by Ryan Neelam and Hervé Lemahieu: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/australia-s-diplomatic-deficit-harms-our-global-presence

Five surprises from Lowy’s Global Diplomacy Index: Lowy Institute Interpreter article by Jack Sato:https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/five-surprises-lowy-s-global-diplomacy-index

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In this episode, the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen talks with his colleague, Research Fellow on Transnational Challenges Lydia Khalil, about her new research paper, Overcoming digital threats to democracy. The internet and social media are now our digital public square, yet these spaces are not governed that way. Lydia proposes that tech giants look to “deliberative democracy” practices — where small but representative groups of people make decisions after deliberating on issues in depth — to address issues of fairness and legitimacy in internet governance.

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In this special episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Director of Research Hervé Lemahieu talks with three experts about the outcome of Indonesia's presidential election on 14 February 2024. Quick counts point to a landslide victory for Prabowo Subianto. What drove this result? Who is the 72-year-old Prabowo? And what kind of Indonesia can we expect under his presidency? Listen to the discussion with Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute, Dr Fakhridho (Ridho) Susrahadiansyah Bagus Pratama Susilo, Senior Analyst at Bower Group Asia, and Dr Abdul Rahman Yaacob, Research Fellow in the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute.

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During a brief visit to Sydney, Major General (Ret'd) Tamir Hayman, Managing Director of the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, offered the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen his unique insights on where momentum now lies in the Ukraine war, whether Iran will pursue a nuclear weapon or stop just short of building one, and the role of secret intelligence in an age of ‘information super-abundance’.

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In May 2023, Thailand held a general election. Now nearly three months after the vote, there's no new prime minister, no new government and the largest party in parliament, Move Forward, won't lead the country. Dr Gregory Raymond at the Australian National University sits down with Lowy Institute Research Director Herve Lemahieu to discuss the murky state of affairs in Thai politics and what could happen next. 

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In this episode of Conversations, Director of the Southeast Asia Program Susannah Patton talks with Thomas Parks, author of the recently published book, Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future: Averting a New Cold Warabout how Southeast Asian countries are navigating growing US-China rivalry and the roles of the region’s diverse external partners, including Japan, Australia and India. Parks is optimistic about the future of the region, but also highlights emerging risks that could threaten Southeast Asian countries’ ability to remain non-aligned and open to all partners.

Thomas Parks has led research and managed aid programs across Southeast Asia with The Asia Foundation and the Australian government (DFAT) on geopolitics, security cooperation, ASEAN, economic development, conflict and governance. He is a graduate of Harvard and Johns Hopkins SAIS. His new book, Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future, is published by Bloomsbury.

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Dmitri Alperovitch is the author of World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century. In this Lowy Institute Conversation, he talks with Sam Roggeveen about China’s ambitions, why Taiwan is so important, the military balance in Asia, and much more.

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In this episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Nonresident Fellow Dr Bobo Lo speaks with International Security Program Director Sam Roggeveen about the attempted coup by elements of the Wagner paramilitary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. They discuss the mutiny, the likely impact on Russia’s leadership, and what effect it will have on the future direction of Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

Dr Bobo Lo is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute and a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington, DC, and an Associate Research Fellow at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). Previously, he was Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, and Deputy Head of Mission at the Australian Embassy in Moscow. He is the author of a number of books including the Lowy Institute Paper A Wary Embrace: What the China–Russia Relationship Means for the World. He has an MA from Oxford and a PhD from Melbourne University. 

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In this episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Project Director and Research Fellow Dr Jennifer Hsu talks with Dr Max Grömping and Professor Jessica Teets to explore how lobbying by civil society organisations works in an authoritarian context. Using case studies from China, Russia, Belarus, Cambodia, Malaysia, Montenegro, Turkey and Zimbabwe, Lobbying the Autocrat explores how citizen advocacy organisations carve out niches in the authoritarian policy process, even influencing policy outcomes.

Dr Max Grömping is senior lecturer at the School of Government and International Relations at Griffith University (Australia). His research interests include lobbying and advocacy in different political regime contexts, disinformation, and electoral integrity. He previously worked as lecturer at Heidelberg University (Germany), research associate at the University of Sydney (Australia), and instructor in international relations at Thammasat University (Thailand). Max is an affiliate of the International Panel on the Information Environment (IPIE), and associate editor for the journal Democratization. His work has been published in academic journals such as Political Communication, Governance, Party Politics, and Policy Sciences, among others.

Professor Jessica C. Teets is Professor of Political Science at Middlebury College and Templeton Fellow for the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). Her research focuses on governance in authoritarian regimes, especially the role of civic participation. She is the author of Civil Society Under Authoritarianism: The China Model (Cambridge University Press, 2014), editor (with William Hurst) of Local Governance Innovation in China: Experimentation, Diffusion, and Defiance (Routledge Contemporary China Series, 2014), and editor (with Max Grömping) of Lobbying the Autocrat: The Dynamics of Policy Advocacy in Nondemocracies (University of Michigan Press, 2023).

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In this episode of Conversations, Susannah Patton, Director of the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Program, talks with Dr Nguyen Hung Son, Vice President of the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam. They discuss Vietnam’s foreign policy outlook, relations with external partners, including Australia, and how Vietnam sees key regional issues such as the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the conflict in Myanmar. Dr Son highlights Vietnam’s continued focus on diplomacy within ASEAN, as well as its interest in a regional balance of power that could lower the risk of conflict.

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The World Bank recently released its “Evolution Roadmap”, aimed at responding more efficiently to growing poverty reduction needs and better addressing climate change challenges.

While the roadmap provides a good starting point — outlining the evolution of the bank's mission, operations and financing model — it falls short in providing concrete and detailed strategies to achieve an ambitious reform.

To discuss the roadmap and the future of the World Bank, Deputy Director of the Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre Alexandre Dayant sat with Manuela V. Ferro, the World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific. An economist and engineer by training, Ms Ferro has more than 25 years of hands-on and leadership experience in Africa, Europe, Latin America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia. She has shaped creative development solutions for multiple and diverse countries, from post-conflict low-income nations to upper middle-income states.

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On Monday 24 April 2023, Australia’s government published the public version of its Defence Strategic Review, a report it commissioned on coming to office to set the agenda for reforms to the posture and structure of the Australian Defence Force. Positioned alongside the government’s commitment to the AUKUS security agreement, the Review and the government’s response to it have signalled major changes to how Australia intends to invest in military technology, hardware and personnel over the next two decades.

In this new episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, military strategist Mick Ryan discusses the Review with the Institute’s International Security Program Director Sam Roggeveen. They discuss what the report reveals about Australia’s plans for its military, but also what is missing. They also talk about defence bureaucracy, the role of the Ukraine war in Australia’s strategic thinking, and challenges for the future leadership of Australia’s armed forces.

Major General (Ret’d) Mick Ryan is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute. He spent 35 years in the Australian Army. His operational service includes deployments to East Timor, Iraq and southern Afghanistan. His book, War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict, was published in 2022.

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In this episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Hervé Lemahieu discusses the continuing threat of nuclear weapons, global efforts at arms control and Australia's interactions with the global non-proliferation regime around its proposed acquisition of nuclear submarine technology under the AUKUS agreement. He speaks with Australia's Ambassador for Arms Control and Counter-proliferation Ian Biggs, Program Officer for Nuclear Materials Security Jessica Bufford and Dr Geoffrey Shaw, Director-General of the Australian Safeguards and Non-proliferation Office (ASNO).

Ian Biggs was appointed Ambassador for Arms Control and Counter-Proliferation in January 2022 and leads Australia's international advocacy on global arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament. He has previously served as Australia's Ambassador to Iran (2016-19), Turkey (2011-14) and Saudi Arabia (2005-08) and has previously served in postings in Iraq, India, Austria and Syria. Ambassador Biggs has also served as Secretary of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament, Chair of the Australia Group, Special Assistant to the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency and Chair of the Nuclear Suppliers Group's Dual Use Regime. He holds a Master of Arts (International Relations) from the Australian National University and a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) from the University of Sydney.

Jessica Bufford serves as a program officer in the Nuclear Material Security team at the Nuclear Threat Initiative - a nonprofit, nonpartisan global security organization focused on reducing nuclear and biological threats imperiling humanity. Prior to joining NTI, she worked in the Division of Nuclear Security at the IAEA. She has also worked on materials management and minimization at the US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration, and worked previously at NTI as a Herbert J. Scoville Fellow. She received a master’s degree in nonproliferation and terrorism studies, with a certificate in conflict resolution, from the Monterey Institute of International Studies and a bachelor’s degree in political science and French from Austin College.

Dr Geoffrey Shaw was appointed to the position of Director General, Australian Safeguards and Non-proliferation Office (ASNO) in 2022. He is responsible for Australia’s implementation and compliance with regard to the Nuclear Non‑proliferation Treaty, Chemical Weapons Convention and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Prior to this appointment, Dr Shaw has most recently served as Australia’s High Commissioner to Pakistan, Australia’s Ambassador for People Smuggling and Human Trafficking and the Representative of the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the United Nations. Previously, Dr Shaw served as the Special Assistant for Policy to the Director General of the IAEA and Australia’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the Conference on Disarmament.

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In this episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Susannah Patton talks to Amrita Malhi, senior development policy adviser and Honorary Senior Lecturer at Flinders History and the Humanities Research Centre at the Australian National University, about the political outlook for Malaysia following the November general election. The election saw victory for Anwar Ibrahim’s multi-racial coalition, which has now formed a national unity government. What drove this result, and will Malaysia see greater political stability than it has endured since the 2018 election? What kind of international role is Prime Minister Anwar likely to pursue?

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In this episode of Conversations, Hervé Lemahieu talks with Xueyin Zha and Jennifer Hsu about the Chinese messaging app and the role in it plays in the democratic participation of Chinese-Australians. They discuss the inherent risks and drawbacks of WeChat, such as censorship, but also explore how it became a medium of outreach and civic engagement for Chinese-Australians during the 2021 New South Wales local elections.

Xueyin Zha is a doctoral candidate at the Australian National University, researching the global governance of advanced technology. She is also a researcher at ANU's interdisciplinary research project: Humanising Machine Intelligence. Her current research interests span technology regulation, international politics of the digital economy, and technology's role in multiculturalism.  

Jennifer Hsu is a Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute’s Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program. She works on the Multiculturalism, Identity and Influence Project.

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In this episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Research Fellow Jennifer Hsu talks with Nixi Cura to explore and assess some of China’s major soft power initiatives, including its successes and failures over the last five years. They discuss the role of Chinese visual culture, notably contemporary Chinese art as a medium of projecting China’s soft power.

Nixi Cura read East Asian Studies at Yale University then specialised in Chinese painting, Buddhist art and Romanesque architecture at the Institute of Fine Arts at New York University. Nixi was the Director of the Arts of China programs at Christie’s Education in London. She is an Honorary Research Fellow at the University of Glasgow and has held the role of Senior Fellow in the Cultural Leadership program at the Royal Academy of Arts. At SOAS University of London she served as Senior Teaching Fellow in Art History & Archaeology, and as a Doctoral Researcher embarked on a project focusing on the tomb of the Qianlong emperor. Nixi’s publications and research interests range from Qing painting and material culture to modern and contemporary Chinese visual culture.

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In this episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Research Fellow Jennifer Hsu talks with Sarah Tong to explore and assess some of the key stressors of the Chinese economy and major economic policies that have emerged in the last five years. They discuss the contradictory forces at play that are impeding economic structural reforms, the prospect of slower growth and how the international environment will shape domestic economic priorities.

Sarah Tong is a Senior Research Fellow of the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute and leads its economics cluster. She previously worked at the Development Research Centre of China’s State Council. She obtained her PhD in Economics from the University of California at San Diego. Her research interests concentrate on the development and transformation of the Chinese economy, including trade and foreign investment, development of regions, financial sector reforms, reforms of state-owned enterprises, and China’s evolving industrial and technology policies. Her work has appeared in publications such as the Journal of International Economics and the Review of Development Economics.

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Dmitri Alperovitch is the author of World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century. In this Lowy Institute Conversation, he talks with Sam Roggeveen about China’s ambitions, why Taiwan is so important, the military balance in Asia, and much more.

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In this episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Research Fellow Jennifer Hsu talks with Zhiqun Zhu to explore and assess some of China’s major foreign policy initiatives and priorities over the last five years. They discuss the driving forces behind these initiatives, including President Xi Jinping himself, and the major institutions that shape China’s foreign policy, namely the Chinese state, the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese people.
 
Zhiqun Zhu is Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Bucknell University, USA. He is currently a US Fulbright Scholar at Griffith University, Australia. He is the author and editor of more than a dozen books, including A Critical Decade: China’s Foreign Policy 2008­­­­–2018 (World Scientific, 2019). He is a member of the National Committee on United States–China Relations and is frequently quoted by international media on Chinese and East Asian affairs.

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Australian eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant leads the world’s first government regulatory agency committed to keeping its citizens safer online. While her appointment is domestic, the internet is global. In this episode of Conversations, the Lowy Institute’s Lydia Khalil talks with Inman Grant about what she learned from her previous experience working in the tech industry, how to regulate it, global efforts to coordinate online safety, particularly around AI, and the geopolitics of tech regulation.

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Defence expert Ross Babbage talks with the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen about his new research paper, Deterrence and Alliance Power: Why the AUKUS Submarines Matter and how they can be Delivered. They discuss not just the viability of the project – can US and UK shipyards deliver? – but its justifications. Why does Australia need these submarines?

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In the final episode of our series on the South China Sea, host Susannah Patton and Lowy Institute colleague Richard McGregor debate the implications of the recent tensions at Second Thomas Shoal for Beijing’s strategy, the credibility of US alliances, and the considerations of other regional countries such as Australia.

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In part three of our South China Sea series, Dr Michael Mazarr speaks with the Lowy Institute’s Susannah Patton about the US’ strategy in the South China Sea. The United States has few easy options for countering China’s coercion of its ally the Philippines. Dr Mazarr of the RAND Corporation argues that the United States needs to plan for a scenario in which China gains control over the disputed Second Thomas Shoal and focus on how it can shore up other outposts controlled by the Philippines.

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In this special episode of Conversations, the Lowy Institute’s Dr Michael Fullilove and Hervé Lemahieu discuss US President Joe Biden’s momentous decision overnight to withdraw from his bid for a second term.

In the past three weeks, US politics has been reshaped before our eyes. A resurgent former president Donald Trump, emerging from an attempt on his life, appears stronger than ever. Meanwhile, after weeks of defying calls to withdraw from the race, Joe Biden abruptly abandoned his bid for a second term as US president. Will it be enough to turn things around for the Democratic Party, and where does the United States go from here?

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In part two of our South China Sea series, Dr Oriana Skylar Mastro speaks with the Lowy Institute’s Susannah Patton about China’s objectives in the region.

Beijing is pursuing an aggressive strategy to push out the United States and prevent Southeast Asian claimant states, especially the Philippines, from exercising their sovereign rights.

Dr Mastro, Center Fellow at Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Stanford University, Nonresident Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and author ofUpstart: How China Became a Great Power, explains the military, political and legal dimensions of China’s approach, which has gone relatively unchecked by the United States and its allies, until now.

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Hostage-taking and arbitrary detention by both state and non-state actors are on the rise. The Lowy Institute’s Sean Turnell, himself wrongfully imprisoned for two years in Myanmar, and Lydia Khalil discuss hostage diplomacy, its personal and global impacts and what can be done about it.

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In this episode of Conversations, the Lowy Institute's Dr Michael Fullilove and Hervé Lemahieu discuss Donald Trump's remarkable political comeback. What will a second Trump presidency mean for America's allies, adversaries, and the fence-sitters? And how should Australia deal with Mr Trump in the Oval Office?

You can also read our special feature on Trump 2.0, as well as Dr Fullilove’s essay for The Atlantic.

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Less than a week after Donald Trump’s historic election victory, world experts gathered in Baku, Azerbaijan, for COP29, the UN’s annual summit on climate change. The Hon Chris Bowen MP, Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy, holds a central role at this year’s summit, as co-chair of negotiations on a new global climate finance goal. He speaks to the Lowy Institute’s Ryan Neelam about global climate action in the age of Trump, Australia’s climate ambitions, and the challenges facing the world in a new, more turbulent era of geopolitics. 

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Traditionally, Australian governments have tried to pursue the relationships with its main trading partner and its security guarantor in parallel. Now that the dynamics are becoming increasingly intertwined, how will Australia make its way forward? Lowy Institute Program Director Sam Roggeveen and Senior Fellow for East Asia Richard McGregor discuss Australian PM Anthony Albanese’s recent six-day visit to China and outline what it signals about Australia’s relationship, not only with Beijing, but with Washington and regional neighbours. 

You can find a complete archive of all our Lowy Institute podcasts here:

 https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications?keys=&author=All&type=194&issues=All&related_issue

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Join Sam Roggeveen and Dan Flitton for a conversation about what was covered this week on Australia’s best foreign policy magazine, The Interpreter.

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