Are you a researcher or data scientist / analyst / ninja? Do you want to learn Bayesian inference, stay up to date or simply want to understand what Bayesian inference is?
Then this podcast is for you! You'll hear from researchers and practitioners of all fields about how they use Bayesian statistics, and how in turn YOU can apply these methods in your modeling workflow.
When I started learning Bayesian methods, I really wished there were a podcast out there that could introduce me to the methods, the projects and the people who make all that possible.
So I created "Learning Bayesian Statistics", where you'll get to hear how Bayesian statistics are used to detect black matter in outer space, forecast elections or understand how diseases spread and can ultimately be stopped. But this show is not only about successes -- it's also about failures, because that's how we learn best.
So you'll often hear the guests talking about what *didn't* work in their projects, why, and how they overcame these challenges. Because, in the end, we're all lifelong learners!
My name is Alex Andorra by the way. By day, I'm a Senior data scientist. By night, I don't (yet) fight crime, but I'm an open-source enthusiast and core contributor to the python packages PyMC and ArviZ. I also love Nutella, but I don't like talking about it – I prefer eating it.
So, whether you want to learn Bayesian statistics or hear about the latest libraries, books and applications, this podcast is for you -- just subscribe! You can also support the show and unlock exclusive Bayesian swag on Patreon!
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Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work !
Chapters:
13:16 Understanding Adaptive and Platform Trials
25:25 Real-World Applications and Innovations in Trials
34:11 Challenges in Implementing Bayesian Adaptive Trials
42:09 The Birth of a Simulation Tool
44:10 The Importance of Simulated Data
48:36 Lessons from High-Stakes Trials
52:53 Navigating Adaptive Trial Designs
56:55 Communicating Complexity to Stakeholders
01:02:29 The Future of Clinical Trials
01:10:24 Skills for the Next Generation of Statisticians
Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!
Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Giuliano Cruz, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Aubrey Clayton, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Matt Rosinski, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Blake Walters, Jonathan Morgan, Francesco Madrisotti, Ivy Huang, Gary Clarke, Robert Flannery, Rasmus Hindström, Stefan, Corey Abshire, Mike Loncaric, Ronald Legere, Sergio Dolia, Michael Cao, Yiğit Aşık, Suyog Chandramouli, Guillaume Berthon, Avenicio Baca, Spencer Boucher, Krzysztof Lechowski, Danimal, Jácint Juhász, Sander and Philippe.
Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !
Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!
Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas and Luke Gorrie.
#144 Why is Bayesian Deep Learning so Powerful, with Maurizio Filippone
Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!
Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)
Takeaways:
Why GPs still matter: Gaussian Processes remain a go-to for function estimation, active learning, and experimental design – especially when calibrated uncertainty is non-negotiable.
Scaling GP inference: Variational methods with inducing points (as in GPflow) make GPs practical on larger datasets without throwing away principled Bayes.
MCMC in practice: Clever parameterizations and gradient-based samplers tighten mixing and efficiency; use MCMC when you need gold-standard posteriors.
Bayesian deep learning, pragmatically: Stochastic-gradient training and approximate posteriors bring Bayesian ideas to neural networks at scale.
Uncertainty that ships: Monte Carlo dropout and related tricks provide fast, usable uncertainty – even if they’re approximations.
#27 Modeling the US Presidential Elections, with Andrew Gelman & Merlin Heidemanns
Saison 1 · Épisode 27
dimanche 1 novembre 2020 • Durée 01:00:53
In a few days, a consequential election will take place, as citizens of the United States will go to the polls and elect their president — in fact they already started voting. You probably know a few forecasting models that try to predict what will happen on Election Day — who will get elected, by how much and with which coalition of States?
But how do these statistical models work? How do you account for the different sources of uncertainty, be it polling errors, unexpected turnout or media events? How do you model covariation between States? How do you even communicate the model’s results and afterwards assess its performance? To talk about all this, I had the pleasure to talk to Andrew Gelman and Merlin Heidemanns.
Andrew was already on episode 20, to talk about his recent book with Jennifer Hill and Aki Vehtari, “Regression and Other Stories”. He’s a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University and works on a lot of topics, including: why campaign polls are so variable while elections are so predictable, the statistical challenges of estimating small effects, and methods for surveys and experimental design.
Merlin is a PhD student in Political Science at Columbia University, and he specializes in political methodology. Prior to his PhD, he did a Bachelor's in Political Science at the Freie Universität Berlin.
I hope you’ll enjoy this episode where we dove into the Bayesian model they helped develop for The Economist, and talked more generally about how to forecast elections with statistical methods, and even about the incentives the forecasting industry has as a whole.
Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !
Links from the show:
#26 What you’ll learn & who you’ll meet at the PyMC Conference, with Ravin Kumar & Quan Nguyen
Saison 1 · Épisode 26
samedi 24 octobre 2020 • Durée 46:25
I don’t know about you, but I’m starting to really miss traveling and just talking to people without having to think about masks, social distance and activating the covid tracking app on my phone. In the coming days, there is one event that, granted, won’t make all of that disappear, but will remind me how enriching it is to meet new people — this event is PyMCon, the first-ever conference about the PyMC ecosystem! To talk about the conference format, goals and program, I had the pleasure to host Ravin Kumar and Quan Nguyen on the show.
Quan is a PhD student in computer science at Washington University in St Louis, USA, researching Bayesian machine learning and one of the PyMCon program committee chairs. He is also the author of several programming books on Python and scientific computing.
Ravin is a core contributor to Arviz and PyMC, and is leading the PyMCon conference. He holds a Bachelors in Mechanical Engineering and a Masters in Manufacturing Engineering. As a Principal Data Scientist he has used Bayesian Statistics to characterize and aid decision making at organizations like SpaceX and Sweetgreen. Ravin is also currently co-authoring a book with Ari Hartikainen, Osvaldo Martin, and Junpeng Lao on Bayesian Statistics due for release in February.
We talked about why they became involved in the conference, parsed through the numerous, amazing talks that are planned, and detailed who the keynote speakers will be… So, If you’re interested the link to register is in the show notes, and there are even two ways to get a free ticket: either by applying to a diversity scholarship, or by being a community partner, which is anyone or any organization working towards diversity and inclusion in tech — all links are in the show notes.
Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !
#23 Bayesian Stats in Business and Marketing Analytics, with Elea McDonnel Feit
Saison 1 · Épisode 23
jeudi 10 septembre 2020 • Durée 59:06
If you’ve studied at a business school, you probably didn’t attend any Bayesian stats course there. Well this isn’t like that in every business schools! Elea McDonnel Feit does integrate Bayesian methods into her teaching at the business school of Drexel University, in Philadelphia, US.
Elea is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at Drexel, and in this episode she’ll tell us which methods are the most useful in marketing analytics, and why.
Indeed, Elea develops data analysis methods to inform marketing decisions, such as designing new products and planning advertising campaigns. Often faced with missing, unmatched or aggregated data, she uses MCMC sampling, hierarchical models and decision theory to decipher all this.
After an MS in Industrial Engineering at Lehigh University and a PhD in Marketing at the University of Michigan, Elea worked on product design at General Motors and was most recently the Executive Director of the Wharton Customer Analytics Initiative.
Thanks to all these experiences, Elea loves teaching marketing analytics and Bayesian and causal inference at all levels. She even wrote the book R for Marketing Research and Analytics with Chris Chapman, at Springer Press.
In summary, I think you’ll be pretty surprised by how Bayesian the world of marketing is…
Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !
#21 Gaussian Processes, Bayesian Neural Nets & SIR Models, with Elizaveta Semenova
Saison 1 · Épisode 21
jeudi 13 août 2020 • Durée 01:02:12
I bet you heard a lot about epidemiological compartmental models such as SIR in the last few months? But what are they exactly? And why are they so useful for epidemiological modeling?
Elizaveta Semenova will tell you why in this episode, by walking us through the case study she recently wrote with the Stan team. She’ll also tell us how she used Gaussian Processes on spatio-temporal data, to study the spread of Malaria, or to fit dose-response curves in pharmaceutical tests.
And finally, she’ll tell us how she used Bayesian neural networks for drug toxicity prediction in her latest paper, and how Bayesian neural nets behave compared to classical neural nets. Ow, and you’ll also learn an interesting link between BNNs and Gaussian Processes…
I know: Liza works on _a lot_ of projects! But who is she? Well, she’s a postdoctorate in Bayesian Machine Learning at the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca, in Cambridge, UK.
Elizaveta did her masters in theoretical mathematics in Moscow, Russia, and then worked in financial services as an actuary in various European countries. She then did a PhD in epidemiology at the University of Basel, Switzerland. This is where she got interested in health applications – be it epidemiology, global health or more small-scale biological questions. But she’ll tell you all that in the episode ;)
Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !
Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!
Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)
Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!
Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, .
#117 Unveiling the Power of Bayesian Experimental Design, with Desi Ivanova
In this episode, I am honored to talk with a legend of sports analytics in general, and baseball analytics in particular. I am of course talking about Jim Albert.
Jim grew up in the Philadelphia area and studied statistics at Purdue University. He then spent his entire 41-year academic career at Bowling Green State University, which gave him a wide diversity of classes to teach – from intro statistics through doctoral level.
As you’ll hear, he’s always had a passion for Bayesian education, Bayesian modeling and learning about statistics through sports. I find that passion fascinating about Jim, and I suspect that’s one of the main reasons for his prolific career — really, the list of his writings and teachings is impressive; just go take a look at the show notes.
Now an Emeritus Professor of Bowling Green, Jim is retired, but still an active tennis player and writer on sports analytics — his blog, “Exploring Baseball with R”, is nearing 400 posts!
Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ !
Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!
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Model complexity ≠ model quality: Understanding capacity, priors, and inductive bias is key to getting trustworthy predictions.
Deep Gaussian Processes: Layered GPs offer flexibility for complex functions, with clear trade-offs in interpretability and compute.
Generative models through a Bayesian lens: GANs and friends benefit from explicit priors and uncertainty – useful for safety and downstream decisions.
Tooling that matters: Frameworks like GPflow lower the friction from idea to implementation, encouraging reproducible, well-tested modeling.
Where we’re headed: The future of ML is uncertainty-aware by default – integrating UQ tightly into optimization, design, and deployment.
Chapters:
08:44 Function Estimation and Bayesian Deep Learning
10:41 Understanding Deep Gaussian Processes
25:17 Choosing Between Deep GPs and Neural Networks
32:01 Interpretability and Practical Tools for GPs
Determining organ weight toxicity with Bayesian causal models: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/754853v1
Material for Applied Machine Learning Days ("Embracing uncertainty"): https://github.com/elizavetasemenova/EmbracingUncertainty
Predicting Drug-Induced Liver Injury with Bayesian Machine Learning: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.chemrestox.9b00264
Ordered Logistic Regression in Stan, PyMC3 and Turing: https://medium.com/@liza_p_semenova/ordered-logistic-regression-and-probabilistic-programming-502d8235ad3f
PyMCon Call For Proposal: https://pymc-devs.github.io/pymcon/cfp
PyMCon...
Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Will Geary, Blake Walters, Jonathan Morgan, Francesco Madrisotti, Ivy Huang, Gary Clarke, Robert Flannery, Rasmus Hindström, Stefan, Corey Abshire, Mike Loncaric, David McCormick, Ronald Legere, Sergio Dolia, Michael Cao, Yiğit Aşık and Suyog Chandramouli
Takeaways:
Player tracking data revolutionized sports analytics.
Decision-making in sports involves managing uncertainty and budget constraints.
Luke emphasizes the importance of portfolio optimization in team management.
Clubs with high budgets can afford inefficiencies in player acquisition.
Statistical methods provide a probabilistic approach to player value.
Removing human bias is crucial in sports decision-making.
Understanding player performance distributions aids in contract decisions.
The goal is to maximize performance value per dollar spent.
Model validation in sports requires focusing on edge cases.
40:43 Practical Applications of Bayesian Experimental Design
52:12 Future of Bayesian Experimental Design
01:01:17 Real-World Applications and Impact
Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!
Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Alex Jones, Gregorio Aguilar, Matt Rosinski, Bart Trudeau, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov,...
Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Steven Rowland, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Trey Causey, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Gergely Juhasz, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Avram Aelony and Joshua Meehl
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