Welcome back to Intrigue Outloud! The US has officially entered its Trump 2.0 era, so we decided to have a chat to reflect on his predecessor's foreign policy legacy. We talk about Biden's approach in Ukraine, whether he was played by Bibi Netanyahu in the Israel-Hamas conflict, and how the last four years of US-China competition is setting Trump up for a tumultuous second term.

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Happy New Year! To get settled in 2025 we thought we'd record a special episode to discuss the year ahead. John, Helen, and Jeremy trade takes on the future of Maduro's Venezuela, whether ISIS is making a comeback in post-Assad Syria, the prospects for a hot conflict between China and Taiwan, and much more. Stick around for the end to see Helen and JD go head to head in a legendary geopolitical trivia showdown.

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This week, we dive into what each candidate winning in November could mean for Washington's approach to the Middle East and how hype around the election can fuel the betting markets (with a little help from Elon Musk?).

Join John and Kristen for their takes on the US election and what it means for the world.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins to discuss the escalating diplomatic spat between China and Canada, and why Turkmenistan can - and must - get its methane emissions under control. Thanks to our sponsor, HubSpot.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue's Head of Operations Aine Stapleton joins to discuss how policymakers are responding to the surge of migrants at the US' southern border, and how the subjects of King Charles around the world are reacting to his coronation. Thanks to our sponsor, Highland Titles (use code 'Intrigue' at checkout for 20% off!).

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On this episode of Intrigue Outloud, Ambassador Rick Barton joins to discuss his career as a peace-builder in war zones across the world, why conflict might be getting more common after decades of relative peace, and what strategies diplomats use to end wars. Ambassador Barton is the founding director of the Office of Transition Initiatives at the U.S. Agency for International Development, former Deputy High Commissioner of the United Nations Refugee Agency, and former Assistant US Secretary of State. Break Haiti’s death spiral by empowering its police by Ambassador Barton. Thanks to our sponsor,

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue senior editor Valentina Calvi joins to discuss the latest on normalisation negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo, and what the collapse of First Republic bank means for the US financial system.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins to discuss Samsung's eye-watering earnings report, and how Mozambique managed to stifle an insurgency and reopen a critical natural gas plant. Thanks to our sponsor, The Daily Upside.

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On today's episode, Victoire Ingabire and Anjan Sundaram join to discuss their first-hand experience facing political repression in Rwanda, why Western governments continue to support the current government, and what happens when the government's leader, Paul Kagame, leaves office.

Victoire Ingabire is a leader in Rwanda's pro-democracy movement who was imprisoned for eight years while running for president in 2010.

Anjan Sundaram is a journalist and author of Bad News: Last Journalists in a Dictatorship, whose op-ed entitled "He's a Brutal Dictator, and One of the West's Best Friends" was featured in the New York Times.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins to examine US President Biden's re-election bid and his foreign policy report card, and how Spain is managing its unprecedented drought. Thanks to our sponsor, Roca News.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins to discuss why China's building a new base in Antarctica, and how Chile plans to win the spoils of its resource wealth. Thanks to our sponsor, Babbel.

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On today's episode of Intrigue Outloud, Dr. Liana Fix joins to discuss Europe's response to the War in Ukraine, and whether the continent is adequately preparing to address future threats. Dr. Liana Fix is the fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, former resident fellow at the German Marshall Fund, and author of A New German Power? Germany’s Role in European Russia Policy. U.S. Leadership on Ukraine Is Increasing European Dependence by Liana. Thanks to our sponsor, Power Corridor.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins to discuss the deteriorating situation in Sudan as two warring generals fight for control, and explain why Saudi Arabia welcomed Hamas for negotiations.

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This week, we dive into the vice presidential debate and how escalation (yes, even further escalation) in the Middle East could impact the Harris-Walz and Trump-Vance campaigns.

Join John and Kristen for their takes on the US election and what it means for the world.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins Ethan Plotkin to discuss why Germany decided to close its last three nuclear reactors, and the North Korean nuclear program's big breakthrough. Thanks to our sponsor, Todoist.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud, Andrew J. Scott joins to discuss a range of challenges and opportunities as the global population growth rate starts to slow, and how countries can adapt to support citizens through retirement and old age. Andrew J. Scott is a Professor of Economics at London Business School, consulting scholar at Stanford University’s Center on Longevity, and author of the bestselling book The 100-Year Life. Why 8 billion matters: The population milestone signals a significant global shift by Professor Scott Thanks to our sponsor, Best Buy.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins to discuss French President Macron's controversial visit to China, and the ongoing leak of highly-classified US intelligence documents. Thanks to our sponsor, Todoist.

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On today's episode of Intrigue Outloud, Dave Sharma joins to discuss a range of Australian foreign policy issues - how the AUKUS deal can stabilise the region, how to win friends among the Pacific Islands, and how Australia can find new partners outside its traditional sphere of influence.

Dave Sharma is a former member of Australian Parliament from the centre-right Liberal Party and served as Australia's Ambassador to Israel from 2013-2017.

For more of Dave's insights, check out his Substack newsletter.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue senior editor Valentina Calvi joins Ethan Plotkin to discuss Italy’s decision to temporarily restrict ChatGPT, and the first Russian detention of an American journalist since 1986.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins to discuss how Finland finally became a member of NATO, and what Donald Trump's indictment might mean for US foreign policy.

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On today's episode of Intrigue Outloud, Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili joins to discuss the evolving geopolitical landscape in Central Asia - Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan - and how the Russo-Ukraine War is redrawing old spheres of influence and empowering Central Asian countries to pursue their interests.

Professor Murtazashvili is the Founding Director of the Center for Governance and Markets and professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh, and a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Central Asian countries now have two big worries about Russia by Professor Murtazashvili

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins to discuss the delay in Israel's judicial overhaul, and why China's quest for superpower status is a bigger lift than Chinese policymakers had hoped. Thanks to our sponsor, 1440.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins to discuss the potential US TikTok ban, and the expulsion from Parliament of one of India's leading opposition figures. Thanks to our sponsor, Todoist.

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On this episode of Intrigue Outloud, Tiziano Breda joins to discuss El Salvador's unprecedented state of exception, which has restricted civil liberties in order to fight criminal gangs since 27 March of last year.

Tiziano is a researcher at the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, and a former Central America analyst at the International Crisis Group based in Guatemala.

Latin America Likes Bukele’s ‘War on Gangs.’ That’s a Problem by Tiziano.

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This week, we dive into the impact that Biden's speeches and movements have on the Harris campaign and look back at the Trump administration foreign policy record.

Join John and Kristen for their takes on the US election and what it means for the world.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins to discuss a former Taiwanese president's historic visit to mainland China, and the breakdown of the ceasefire between Colombia's government and the cartels.Thanks to our sponsor, Highland Titles.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins for an update on France's fraught pension reform debate, and to discuss the legal troubles of former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan.

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On this episode of Intrigue Outloud, Haviv Rettig Gur and Gilad Kariv join Ethan Plotkin to discuss Israel's ongoing protests, how lawmakers are responding, and why time may not be on Israeli democracy's side.

Haviv Rettig Gur is the Senior Political Analyst at the Times of Israel.

Rabbi Gilad Kariv is a constitutional law expert and member of the Israeli Knesset from the Labor Party.

Anatomy of a self-sabotaging reform by Haviv.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins to discuss the AUKUS submarine deal between the US, UK, and Australia, and the collapse of California-based Silicon Valley Bank.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder Helen Zhang joins to discuss the protests in Georgia and the normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

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On this episode of Intrigue Outloud, Ellie Geranmayeh joins Ethan Plotkin to discuss how the Iran nuclear deal fell apart, and how Western governments can negotiate with the Iranian regime without undermining the protests against it.

Ellie Geranmayeh is a senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She focuses on European policy in relation to Iran, particularly on the nuclear and regional dossiers and sanctions policy.

"We still need a nuclear deal with Iran. Protests don't change that" by Ellie (Washington Post)

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins Ethan Plotkin to discuss French President Emmanuel Macron's trip across Africa, and the major reparations agreement between South Korea and Japan.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins Ethan Plotkin to discuss China’s “Two Sessions” parliamentary meetings, and the stories of two political prisoners in Belarus and Cambodia.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue Managing Editor Jeremy Dicker (JD) joins Ethan Plotkin to discuss Mexico's booming car industry and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Central Asia.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins Ethan Plotkin to discuss the Northern Ireland deal between the EU and UK, and the latest from the Yemen Civil War.

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This week, we dive into the impact that overseas voters could have on the election as RFK Jr. goes to bat over getting his name removed from state ballots. Plus, some on-the-ground reporting in Washington on what secretaries are doing to mitigate a potential cut to US diplomats pay.

Join John and Kristen for their takes on the US election and what it means for the world.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins Ethan Plotkin to discuss Nigeria's presidential elections and China's plan for peace in Ukraine.

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On this episode of Intrigue Outloud, Erol Yayboke joins Ethan Plotkin to discuss why a decade of migration and displacement made the earthquakes in Turkey and Syria on 6 February so deadly, and how regional governments should respond to renewed migration pressure.

Erol is the director of the Project on Fragility and Mobility at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and an adjunct professor at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Public Policy.

Shattered Relief: A 7.8-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Turkey and Syria by Erol.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins Ethan Plotkin to discuss US President Joe Biden's surprise visit to Kyiv, and the cost-of-living protests in Suriname.

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On today's Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins to discuss Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Beijing, and the months-long protests over pension reform in France.

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On today’s Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founders John Fowler and Helen Zhang join Ethan Plotkin to discuss a potential plot against Moldova’s government, and the judicial reforms that are bringing hundreds of thousands of Israelis into the streets.

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On today’s Intrigue Outloud news rundown, Intrigue co-founder John Fowler joins Ethan Plotkin to discuss Nicaragua’s surprise transfer of more than 200 political prisoners to the United States, and whether the tragic earthquake in Turkey and Syria will move countries to cooperate with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

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Welcome to the Intrigue Outloud podcast channel!

For this inaugural episode, Charles Dunst joins to discuss his new book Defeating the Dictators, released on 2 February. The book tells the story of how democracy saw its global image threatened by technologically-advanced and bureaucratically-efficient autocracies in the Middle East and East Asia, and provides a roadmap to policymakers looking to rebuild trust in their political systems. Dunst is a Senior Associate at the Asia Group, a Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and a regular contributor to leading newspapers like the New York Times.

Make sure to subscribe to stay up to date on all the content coming to this channel. And if you have comments, concerns, or guest ideas for future episodes (or if you want to be a guest yourself!), reach out at ethan@internationalintrigue.io.

Link to purchase Defeating the Dictators: https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/charles-dunst/defeating-the-dictators/9781399704434/

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**This episode originally aired July 15th, 2024 (Video Episode Here) .We'll be back next week!

--

Hi Everyone! Welcome to International Intrigue's newest show: John&Jacob! Every week, Intrigue CEO and Former Australian Diplomat John Fowler and Cognitive Investments Director of Geopolitical Analysis Jacob Shapiro bring you fresh, egoless analysis of the world's most pressing stories.

2024 has been the year of global elections, and this week brought huge changes. We saw the ousting of UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Tory. Party by his replacement, Keir Starmer, and the Labour Party. Marie Le Pen's far right takeover in France's parliamentary elections flopped with the most gains from the left, Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian may be a sign of Iran becoming more West-friendly, Japan-Philippines have signed a defense treaty that indicates growing fears of China, and it all comes together in the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington DC.

Subscribe to International Intrigue, the free 5-minute global news briefing: https://www.internationalintrigue.io/

Chapters:

0:00 How 2024's Elections are Shifting the Global Order

1:00 Labour takes UK's Elections 5:02 France's Far Right 9:23 Iran's New President

14:18 Japan-Philippines Defense Pact

18:54 Washington NATO Summit

26:43 Will Biden Drop Out of the Race?

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John and Kristen hit record just after the first debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris wrap on their first debate (and first time meeting face-to-face!) in the 2024 election season. From the CHIPS Act to pictures of a Taliban leader’s home, there was more foreign policy intrigue than we banked on. Lucky for you, we had our notes prepared.

Join John and Kristen for their takes on the US election and what it means for the world.

Sign up for weekly editions of the Election Intrigue newsletter here.

Shoot us an email here.

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Video Episode Here

Hi Everyone! Welcome back to International Intrigue's newest show: John&Jacob! Every week, Intrigue CEO and Former Australian Diplomat John Fowler and Cognitive Investments Director of Geopolitical Analysis Jacob Shapiro bring you fresh, egoless analysis of the world's most pressing stories.

This week we start with Ukraine's cabinet shakeup and what it means for the war, as well as Volodymyr Zelenskyy's reputation as a President whose power is now secured by martial law, rather than democratic elections.

We then review the latest victory by Germany's AfD party in their regional elections and what it says about the growing far-right presence across the EU. Next is the most recent quarrel in East Asia, where a Chinese plane has breached Japanese airspace for (depending on who you ask) the first time, and China continues to butt heads (ships) with the Philippines in the South China Sea. We wrap things up with a few notable travels by world leaders: Putin in Mongolia, Pope Francis in Indonesia, and Egypt's Sisi in Turkey, and finish with our Pardon the Interruption-inspired game "What's the Word?"

Chapters:

0:00-1:30 Intro

1:30-7:10 Ukraine's Cabinet Shakeup

7:10-16:10 AfD wins in Germany's elections

16:10-25:38 China Breaches Japan's Airspace and Clashes in SCS

32:10-37:06 What's the Word?

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This week, we dive into what a Democrat win in November could mean for US-China relations. Harris has signaled she will likely continue down the path that President Joe Biden carved out over the past four years when it comes to Beijing but with a VP pick that has been to China nearly 30 times since the late 80s, there's certainly intrigue on if and what could shift.

Join John and Kristen for their takes on the US election and what it means for the world.

Sign up for weekly editions of the Election Intrigue newsletter here.

Shoot us an email here.

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Video Episode Here.

Hi Everyone! Welcome back to International Intrigue's newest show: John&Jacob! Every week, Intrigue CEO and Former Australian Diplomat John Fowler and Cognitive Investments Director of Geopolitical Analysis Jacob Shapiro bring you fresh, egoless analysis of the world's most pressing stories.

This week we kick things off with the CEO of Telegram, Pavel Durov, being arrested by French authorities and the greater conversation of social media and communication platforms' role in cracking down on the unsavory things that happen on their servers.

We then go to our main discussion of Canada's new tariffs on EVs and other Chinese-made products, how they affect China's current standard of overproduction, and how China will address its currently deteriorating economy.

0:00-2:20 Intro

2:20-12:25 Pavel Durov (CEO of Telegram) Arrested

12:25-19:55 Canada's EV Tariffs and How China Will Respond

19:55-27:05 The Greater Issues with China's Economy

27:05-34:15 Libya Pauses Oil Production over Central Bank Disputes

34:15-38:41 New Game: Big Deal / Little Deal

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This week, we dive into what a potential Trump 2.0 administration could mean for US-China relations. Former President Donald Trump set the tone for hawkish China policies out of Washington, very much continued by sitting President Joe Biden. So, what would a Republican ticket look to accelerate if they win in November? You heard reported thoughts here first, from a diplomat who was in China for Trump 1.0 even (John).

Join John and Kristen for their takes on the US election and what it means for the world.

Sign up for weekly editions of the Election Intrigue newsletter here.

Shoot us an email here.

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Summary

In this special edition on Syria one week after Assad's downfall, Helen, John and Jeremy discuss:

• The recent developments in Syria following Assad's flight to Russia, the role of HTS in governing Idlib, and the implications of regional powers' involvement.
• The complexities of the Syrian conflict, the potential for civil war, and the skepticism surrounding HTS's ability to govern effectively.
• We also give the view from Israel and Iran as well as Turkey's strategic gains and the shifting geopolitical landscape.

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