This month, James and Giles explore growing tensions around the US Federal Reserve (2:55), including the Department of Justice probe into Jerome Powell, increasing political pressure on monetary policy, and the market response to Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh (3:43) as the next Fed Chair. The discussion also examines the sharp weakness in the US dollar and heightened volatility across gold and silver, driven by shifting expectations and policy uncertainty (6:08).
We look beyond the US, assessing the impact of early election announcements in Japan (7:06), subsequent bond market turbulence, and renewed pressure on the yen, all of which have fed through to global yield movements. Our experts reflect on the resurgence of geopolitical friction between the US and Europe, particularly around Greenland, and the implications for broader trade relationships (8:52).
Turning to the UK (10:15), James and Giles discuss ongoing ongoing political uncertainty, rumours of Labour leadership challenges, and a mixed but improving economic backdrop, with upgraded growth forecasts, easing inflation and early signs of strengthening sentiment.
Sam and James explore the outlook for AIM and UK smaller companies (16:43), including current valuation pressures, upcoming Business Relief rule changes, and the factors that could support a recovery through the year. Finally, the team discuss longer‑term structural drivers, including the Mansion House Accord (22:53) and its potential to mobilise around £50bn into UK private markets over the coming years.
This podcast is brought to you by TrinityBridge – trinitybridge.com – and features James Tulloch, Senior Investment Specialist, in conversation with Giles Parkinson, Head of Equities and Sam Barton, Senior Investment Director.
We’ve created this podcast to set out possible approaches. Please do not view it as financial advice, or its content as investment recommendations. Just because an investment or an investment strategy has performed well in the past, it does not mean it will continue to do so. Our predictions are based on information that is currently available, however events and markets can and do change rapidly.
