Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Inside Prediction Markets

This week, Chris and Henry welcome trader Clay Alter to discuss his move from sportsbooks to live trading on Kalshi and Polymarket US. Clay breaks down his hands-on approach to market making, how he managed first-touchdown orders between plays and why late-game situations remain some of his strongest opportunities. Plus: a $60,000 losing week, building trading tools with AI and why Clay continues to rely on experience rather than a formal pricing model.

This week, Polymarket’s CEO allegedly used company funds to fly private, Matt Downs’ created a game lines analysis on X and we observe flat PM volume week over week. Then, we get into trading politics on prediction markets. We talk all things Nate Silver and go through past elections we’ve traded and how to properly navigate political numbers.

This week, Seth, aka @Soarin22 on X, joins us to share how he went from an actuary to a full-time NBA trader and built a one-man trading operation with roughly $2 million in profits on Kalshi. We unpack his shift from top-down betting to building his own NBA model, why execution matters as much as pricing and how he’s automated 90–95% of his trading system. We also go through his NBA takes from this season and his thoughts on the NFL so far.

This week, we discuss the CFTC’s potential collaboration with the SEC, Novig’s climb to #1 in the App Store’s sports category and prediction markets’ growth as the NFL season unfolds. Then, we get into what bettors actually want: what makes someone choose a sportsbook over a prediction market, how app design shapes that choice and why a simpler experience might matter more than better odds.

This week, @ssigsbee had his first losing month, Kalshi’s allowing margin trading and Novig hit $100 million in a single day! Then, we get into Survivor and Chris’ observations so far. We finish up with our NFL takes from the past few weeks: Deshaun Watson isn’t that bad, Ben Johnson’s not getting enough credit, the Rams are not a top 5 team and JJ McCarthy & Drake Maye markets.

Our guest this week, @evenstevengg on X, started sports betting in 2022 with $100 on a sportsbook. Now he hasn't placed a sportsbook bet in months. We talk about why he went all-in on prediction markets: the proposed 90% gambling-loss deduction rule, week-long withdrawals vs. next-day payouts on PMs and why offshore books are in a "slow death." Plus how he turned a rough first month on PMs into one of the best runs of his career, and the $35K NASCAR mistake along the way.

Football is back! This week we discuss Pinnacle’s statement on X, FanDuel’s market making on Kalshi and where the vig gets applied differently depending on how competitive a given market is. We describe our necessities in an odds screen and the tools we've built to track line history, fills and exchange flow in real time.

Then we get into a big slate of football. College football week 2 delivered. Huge volume across the board, tight spreads, and deep liquidity on marquee matchups like Michigan–Oklahoma and Texas–Ohio State.

On the NFL side, we open with the Chiefs–Broncos Monday night line and from there it's a full Week 1 recap: Myles Garrett landing on IR, Lions–Bills predictions for Thursday, the Giants' win over the Cowboys, the Jets sitting tied for first in their division, and a rough opening week for a couple of last year's MVP-caliber quarterbacks. 

This week, pro sports bettor Rob Pizzola (X: @robpizzola) joins us to break down Week 1 NFL matchups. He walks us through his background, his automated closing-line-driven betting process and how prediction market liquidity is reshaping sportsbook limits heading into the season. From there we dig into Seahawks-Patriots (and the safety injuries moving that line) and the travel-schedule twist in Rams-49ers, plus his take on Aaron Donald.

To close it out, Rob answers reader questions, including his pick for a 5-year quarterback rebuild, his take on the Lane Kiffin bonus-hedge story and the 2 teams he'd price differently in the NFL power rankings.

This week we discuss LSU reportedly using prediction markets to hedge Lane Kiffin-related bonuses, Donald Trump Jr.’s ties to the industry, the politics surrounding prediction market regulation and whether the industry could eventually become too big to unwind.Then, gaming and prediction markets attorney, Alex Dubin, joins the show to break down the Ninth Circuit’s ruling against Kalshi, why it conflicts with the Third Circuit’s decision, and how the growing divide between federal and state regulators could ultimately land in front of the Supreme Court.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.00:00 LSU hedges Lane Kiffin on Kalshi01:57 Polymarket’s $21B valuation2:50 Trump Jr.: "Back Off"04:08 Alex Dubin joins the show07:33 Ninth circuit ruling15:06 Why federal markets are split on PMs 17:03 Could PMs reach the Supreme Court?27:11 Are PMs gambling? 33:26 Are PMs too big to fail?#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

This week, President Trump expressed his support of prediction markets in the U.S., our Novig CEO and co-founder Jacob had a CNBC feature and NFL players are returning to college football. 

Then, we get into the NFL markets that are already exceeding expectations before the regular season begins. We unpack the surge in preseason trading volume and predict just how massive trading will become Week 1. We debate which exchanges will grow the most from football season and preview trading activity around the U.S. Open. We wrap up with a quick debrief of BetBash 2026.

We open this week with our 3 big things: Kalshi has a new 3.5% maker fee on RFQs, Underdog just released a new crash-style game and Novig passed Rothera in trailing 7-day prediction market volume!

Then, our good friend Hitman joins us to discuss all things NFL. He shares how he got into the touting space and then breaks down how he approaches NFL preseason betting and identifies teams the market may be pricing incorrectly. He explains why he’s higher on the Patriots and Jaguars, lower on the Commanders and Packers, and what he expects from teams like the Ravens and Giants this season. 

For this week’s episode, we filmed in Las Vegas at BetBash 2026! We sat down with our good friend Pads to hear how he went from working as a chemical engineer to becoming a full-time professional bettor and eventually joining Bookie Beats. We break down live betting, some of the biggest opportunities and debates in sports betting right now and how prediction markets are rapidly changing the space. In the second half of the episode, we take questions from the BetBash crowd and dive deeper into market making, liquidity, the growth of Novig and what we’re expecting as the NFL season approaches.

Underdog just sold to IG group for $1.3 billion and the state of New York is suing Kalshi for $36 billion. This week we also discuss BetBash, the annual sports gambling networking conference in Vegas. We talk about what to expect, advice if you’re a first timer and people we’re excited to see. 

Then, we officially introduce MAG: Manhattan Athletic Group. MAG is Novig's new market making firm dedicated exclusively to sports prediction markets. We explain why we built MAG and why we’re so excited about what's ahead. We wrap up by discussing the CFTC's new proposal and what it could mean for the broader prediction market ecosystem.

Netflix released a new documentary about prediction markets and is facing some backlash. Kalshi is threatening legal action towards Netflix based on some false information revealed in the trailer for the documentary. Also, ProphetX raised $35 million to expand their federally regulated sports prediction market platform and Fanatics has acquired their own prediction market exchange. Then, Camden Mariotti joins us in the OpticOdds Hot Seat. He talks about becoming a professional trader and how it all started gambling at a poker table with Chris in college. Camden eventually got into sports betting and then completely switched his focus to prediction markets. He talks about what it takes to be successful in PMs and the kind of people you want by your side. We close the interview with Camden revealing his biggest loss in trading and giving some great advice for beginners in the space.

Kalshi is rolling out compute forward curves and really expanding after World Cup markets have brought an insane wave of volume into prediction markets this summer. Also, Underdog Fantasy is officially entering the space with its own prediction market exchange and Henry and Chris discuss what platforms will be most popular for the NFL season ahead. Then, Larry and Joe join them in the OpticOdds Hot Seat and they talk through their backgrounds, what each of them specializes in and how they would approach building a prediction market trading team from the ground up. They get into hiring strategy, the different skill sets a market-making team needs and how to find people with a real edge.

From Kalshi's new Pro trading terminal to the Bryce Harper FanDuel controversy, Henry and Chris discuss all the biggest stories this week. Importantly, they dive into how AI is completely changing the way prediction market traders work and how the rapid adoption of tools like Claude, ChatGPT and Perplexity have transformed traders' workflow. They debate whether AI can help traders build an edge, and what prediction markets could look like in the near future.

📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays

👇 Subscribe now.

@insidepredictionmarkets

OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.

Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform

This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

Chapters:

00:00 Kalshi's New Pro Trading Terminal

01:25 Bryce Harper FanDuel Controversy

05:37 Kalshi's Legal Battle with NY

07:53 How AI Is Changing Prediction Markets

12:30 ChatGPT vs Claude vs Perplexity

18:52 Inside the World of Advantage Gambling

25:28 Conor McGregor Inflow

#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

A Michigan judge has banned Kalshi from offering sports contracts in the state unless they obtain an OSB license — and ordered $120,000 per day in fines if they don't comply. Chris and Henry break down why this is just another stop on the inevitable road to the Supreme Court.

Then: Malik Beasley gets caught shaving props for pocket change — texts showing him scrambling to put together $2,000 while on a $42 million career contract. Chris and Henry debate how common this actually is, whether prediction markets make it easier to catch, and whether this story updates their priors on how much rigging is really happening across sports.

Plus, World Cup volume is shattering records across every platform, every market maker is rooting for draws and upsets, and Chris makes a bold prediction for NFL season: $50 million at 3% worse than fair value, available in a single regular season game.

📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays

👇 Subscribe now.

@insidepredictionmarkets

OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.

Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform

This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

Chapters:

0:00 – Michigan Bans Kalshi

2:30 – Malik Beasley Caught Shaving Props

12:00 – SIG Loses $70M to Insider Trading

14:00 – World Cup Breaking Every Record

19:00 – Chris's Bold NFL Season Prediction

25:00 – Matt Kalish Draftkings Hypocrisy

28:00 – Would You Write a Check Into Kalshi at $40 Billion?

#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Former Susquehanna International Group (SIG) trader Andrew Courtney (@andrewcourt1) joins the Optic Odds Hot Seat to discuss what it's really like inside one of the world's most respected trading firms.Andrew spent 15 years at SIG, where he worked in market making, ETF trading, and trading system development before eventually finding his way into prediction markets. Along the way, he learned how professional traders think about risk, adverse selection, liquidity, and building efficient markets.This conversation offers a rare look inside the mindset of a professional trader.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:00:00 - Andrew Courtney's Background02:55 - How SIG Trains Professional Traders08:05 - Learning Market Making at SIG13:50 - Poker, Betting & Trader Culture18:30 - What Market Makers Actually Do25:00 - Why Great Traders Embrace Risk30:20 - Will AI Replace Traders?36:15 - Leaving SIG & Discovering Prediction Markets40:50 - The Biggest Problems in Prediction Markets45:10 - Sharps, Squares & Market Makers#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Matt Restivo, CEO of Optic Odds, joins Chris and Henry in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Matt traces the full origin story: from a Stanford dorm room startup called OddsJam to the realization that the real value wasn't the consumer product but the data infrastructure powering it. He covers how Optic Odds became the cornerstone of the prediction market tech stack, and his most expensive lesson — not pivoting to prediction markets sooner.Also: World Cup volume is hitting all-time highs across every prediction market platform and every market maker is quietly rooting for ties and upsets. Chris and Henry break down what the numbers actually mean, why the Knicks cost market makers a phone book in the NBA Finals, and whether a Morgan Stanley report claiming Kalshi did 10% of US sports volume is believable.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – World Cup Volume Is Breaking Every Record1:12 – The Knicks Cost Market Makers a Phone Book2:50 – Did Kalshi Really Do 10% of US Sports Volume?4:07 – Matt Restivo, CEO of Optic Odds6:00 – Data Infrastructure Becoming the Product16:00 – How PMs Changed Optic Odds20:00 – Could Optic Odds Trade Its Own Data?26:31 – Matt's Road to Success30:32 – Optic Odds' Most Expensive Lesson#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

A New York City bar is covering every customer's tab if the Knicks win game one — and they're hedging the entire risk on a prediction market. Chris and Henry break down why this is one of the smartest real-world use cases for prediction markets yet and how Mattress Mack was doing this years before prediction markets existed. Also, Polymarket resolves a MicroStrategy Bitcoin market to No even though the sale actually happened before the deadline and Kalshi launches the American Power Index.

Then Josh (@spacemanOTH) joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Josh runs a two-person betting operation focused on college football, NBA player props, and prediction market making. He breaks down how he built his team by identifying complementary skill sets at BetBash, why profiling your competitors in Survivor is just as important as picking the right team, how he thinks about toxic order flow and protecting his book as a small operation, the rookie mistake of uploading quotes in a predictable window every day, and why he took a shot on Trump in 2024.

📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays

👇 Subscribe now.

@insidepredictionmarkets

OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.

Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform

This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

0:00 – NYC Bar Hedging Knicks

2:41 – Polymarket Resolves a Market Wrong

4:34 – Kalshi American Power Index

7:20 – Introducing Josh @spacemanOTH

9:52 – How Josh Built His Team

12:00 – RFQs: Free Money or a Dangerous Experiment?

16:00 – Profiling Competitors in Survivor and Market Making

23:00 – The Rookie Mistake That Cost Him

28:00 – Low-Hanging Fruit vs. Long Term Building

33:00 – Josh's Trump 2024 Bet

41:00 – Josh's Most Expensive Mistake

#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Kyle Kuzma — yes, the NBA player — became an unlikely prediction market hero this week by clapping back at the DraftKings co-founder's Twitter tirade. Then: the Ninth Circuit signals it's going to rule against prediction markets on sports contracts, setting up the split circuit that everyone was expecting and almost certainly sending this to the Supreme Court. Plus, the New York Times runs a piece on regular people beating Wall Street on prediction markets.

Then it's just Chris and Henry going deep on the terms that get thrown around constantly in prediction markets but rarely get properly defined. Adverse selection, top down, alpha, live betting, market making — each one broken down clearly with real examples, common misconceptions corrected, and listener questions answered along the way. If you've ever nodded along to a conversation in this space without fully understanding what's being said, this is the episode for you.

📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

Chapters:

0:00 – Kyle Kuzma: Unlikely PM Hero

1:48 – Supreme Court Here We Come

4:39 – Regular Guys Are Beating Wall Street

7:06 – Defining Adverse Selection

10:30 – Defining Top Down

16:00 – Defining Alpha

22:51 – Defining Live Betting

30:00 – Listener Questions

34:15 – Defining Market Making#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Matt Kalish — co-founder of DraftKings — had a very public meltdown on Twitter this week about prediction markets, and Chris and Henry break down every angle. Sporttrade suspends OSB operations and Polymarket and Nasdaq announce perpetual contracts on individual stocks, which raises the obvious question: is this just an option with a different name?Then Zach from 4casters joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. 4casters has been quietly doubling year over year since 2021, approaching a billion in volume, and remains one of the only sharp-on-sharp exchanges in the space. Zach breaks down how that model actually sustains itself, why he's not rushing to become the twenty-fifth prediction market, what he really thinks the regulatory coin flip looks like over the next two years, and whether Polymarket USA just gets boxed out entirely if Novig gets to market first.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – Matt Kalish Crashes Out on Twitter4:39 – Sporttrade Suspends OSB6:27 – Polymarket and Nasdaq Announce Stock Perps8:30 – Introducing Zach From 4casters11:00 – From Telegram Group Chat to a Billion in Volume19:00 – Navigating Fees24:00 – Novig Boxing Out Polymarket USA34:00 – Prediction Markets Teach Humility?35:02 – Zach's Most Expensive Mistake#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

What actually is market making? If you've ever asked yourself that question, this is the episode for you.FanDuel and DraftKings just announced they're market making on prediction markets. Then Kalshi dropped numbers showing over 30% of their volume is now in combos — primarily sports parlays. Chris and Henry break down what it all means, whether sportsbooks actually have the capability to book sharp flow or whether they've just never been tested, and why price discovery on prediction markets might quietly be forcing a fairer game for everyone.Chris and Henry cover the full picture: how market makers make money, why it's harder than it looks, the difference between a market maker and a sharp, why you could be trading against Joe from the deli and not even know it, and what it actually takes to level up in a zero sum game where the sportsbook model would just kick you out. One of the more educational episodes the show has done — and a good one to send to anyone who keeps asking you to explain what you do.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – FanDuel and DraftKings Enter Market Making3:00 – Can Sportsbooks Actually Book Sharp Flow?5:00 – What Is Market Making?10:00 – How Market Makers Earn16:00 – The Difference Between a Market Maker and a Sharp22:00 – Are You Really Betting Against Joe from the Deli?30:00 – Are Prediction Markets Peer to Peer?#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Polymarket had a rough week — and Chris and Henry break down both stories. First: ghost orders Then: their CMO was caught on a live stream nearly whispering something to a popular streamer before realizing he was on camera — a clip that went viral for all the wrong reasons.

Also, Max Shen-Molesky of Coinflip Capital joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Max has quietly become one of the most dominant liquidity providers on prediction markets today — in both crypto binaries and sports. He breaks down his thesis that every market is effectively the same if you understand order books, how he made most of his early sports PNL in the first two months with zero competition, the wildest manipulation story you'll hear this year, and the most expensive bugs that have cost him.

📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays

👇 Subscribe now.

@insidepredictionmarkets

OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.

Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform

This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

Chapters:

0:00 – Ghost Orders

2:00 – PM CMO Caught on Live Stream

4:20 – PM Oracle Contraversy

7:40 – Max Shen-Molesky Joins the Show

15:00 – Where Max Makes His Money

18:30 – Can You Manipulate Crypto Binary Markets?

24:00 – Why Every Market Is the Same

35:00 – The Strategy That Keeps Winning

51:00 – Most Expensive Mistake

#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

A U.S. soldier was just prosecuted by the DOJ for betting $400,000 on a prediction market using classified military intelligence about the Maduro situation — and Chris and Henry break down why this is actually a landmark moment for the space. It wasn't done on a CFTC-regulated platform, but it still matters: the system is starting to work, Trump is calling the world a casino, and the CFTC commissioner is putting more regulation on the table.

Then Shipper (@Ship_the_Justice) joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. He's one of the most respected minds in sports betting Twitter and brings a rare perspective — someone who has sat on both sides of the market. The conversation covers how he thinks about information sharing, what it was like switching from bookmaker to bettor and how sharps like him are actually approaching prediction markets right now.

📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays

👇 Subscribe now.

@insidepredictionmarkets

OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.

Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform

This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

Chapters:

0:00 – The Soldier Who Bet $400K on Maduro

2:30 – Trump Calls the World a Casino

3:00 – A Major Platform Lobbies the CFTC

5:05 – Introducing Shipper (@Ship_the_Justice)

6:00 – From New Zealand Bookmaker to Full-Time Sharp Bettor

14:00 – Getting Picked Off on Injury News

20:00 – How Sharps Are Approaching Prediction Markets

28:00 – The Viral Half Million Contract Order

38:00 – How Much of His PNL Is on PMs

48:27 – The Most Expensive Lesson Shipper Has Learned

#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Chris and Henry pull back the curtain on what it actually takes to get hired at a prediction market company. They start with their own stories — how Chris reached out cold and created his own role, how Henry cold-emailed a cover letter and got hired by pitching a vision the company didn't even know it needed yet — and why both paths have one thing in common: initiative.From there it's a full insider breakdown: the org chart of a prediction market company, what each department actually looks for, the honest truth about originators (most people who think they are one, aren't), what makes a great trader vs. a great engineer in this space, and why dev relations might be the most underrated open door in the entire industry right now.The second half is a live mock interview — Henry puts Chris in the hot seat with real questions he uses to evaluate trading candidates, walking through position sizing, adverse selection, tick width, and how to think about the relationship between a market maker and an exchange. If you're trying to break into prediction markets, this is the episode.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – How Chris Got His Job at Novig3:40 – How Henry Got His Job at Novig6:30 – The #1 Piece of Advice for Breaking In8:50 – The Org Chart Explained14:00 – What Engineers Need to Know22:35 – The Hard Truth About Originators26:50 – What Is a Trader, Actually?28:35 – The Mock Interview38:29 – Position Sizing and Adverse Selection46:42 – Novig Is Hiring#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Ohio just introduced a bill that would effectively kill online sports betting in the state. Chris and Henry break down why it's unlikely to pass but why it matters, plus a tease of what looks like perpetual contracts coming to a major prediction market platform, and a look at Chris's Substack deep dive into his journey as a professional gambler.

Then Harry Crane joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Harry is a statistics professor at Rutgers, a member of the CFTC Innovation Committee, and one of the sharper minds at the intersection of academic probability theory and real-world prediction markets. The conversation gets into his path from poker to sports betting to prediction market research, what it's like being a bettor with a seat at the regulatory table, and a genuinely fascinating deep dive into Kelly Criterion — when to use it, when it breaks down, the case for half Kelly vs. full Kelly, and what a $3 million drawdown actually teaches you about your own edge.

📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays

👇 Subscribe now.

@insidepredictionmarkets

OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.

Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform

Chapters:

0:00 – Ohio's Bill to Kill Sports Betting

1:12 – Perps Coming to Kalshi?

3:12 – Chris's Substack on his Journey

4:51 – Introducing Harry Crane: CFTC Committee Member

6:45 – Harry's Scoop on Election Markets and 538

14:00 – Having a Seat at the CFTC Table

19:00 – Are Sharp Bettors Losing Faith in Prediction Markets?

26:00 – The Full Kelly vs. Half Kelly Debate

35:00 – What a $3M Drawdown Teaches You

43:00 – Card Counting, Kelly, and the Conditional Fill Problem

This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Novig is at The Masters — LIV golfers including Jon Rahm and Cam Smith are wearing the Novig patch, and the Blue Blazer Jackpot is live on the app. Enter once per day by trading on the tournament winner, and if your pick wins you share a $500K Novig Cash prize pool. One winner also takes home the first-ever Novig Blue Blazer delivered in person by a LIV player. Visit augusta.novig.com to track entries and find your angle.Then Chris and Henry break down the week's big three: a court ruling in favor of prediction markets over New Jersey's attempt to block sports contracts, the one platform that just introduced fees after years of zero-cost trading, and what that actually means for the space. Then Golden Pants himself — John Shilling of Risk Takers — joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat to break down how to actually bet The Masters, from course characteristics and field analysis to how prediction markets have completely changed the golf betting lifecycle.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets [5:17 PM]OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – Novig's $500K Blue Blazer Jackpot1:42 – Courts Rule in Favor of Prediction Markets Over New Jersey3:20 – A Major Platform Added Fees5:08 – Optic Odds: The Tech Stack Behind the Space7:29 – Introducing Golden Pants: John Schilling in the Hot Seat8:37 – What Makes Augusta Unlike Any Other Course22:43 – Golf Betting's Evolution in the Prediction Markets Era27:54 – Most Live Golf Volume Is Fake?31:32 – How Golden Pants Operates Across Every Sport35:25 – How His Trading Software Actually Works44:07 – What Should Change About Tick Size53:32 – Golden Pants' Most Expensive Mistake#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

The NFL just asked prediction markets to stop listing easily manipulated outcomes — draft picks, announcer mentions, attendance markets — and Chris and Henry think it's actually a good thing. Then: DraftKings is quietly building an AI casino product nobody asked for, and Kalshi just filed to offer margin trading.

All three stories before they sit down with Jake (@jbets212121), a former accountant who walked away from a stable career less than a year ago to go full time in prediction markets.Jake gets into how he built his operation from scratch — starting with paper hat work and live betting, pivoting to RFQs, and building out a fully functional quoting system in ten days with his developer partner. The conversation covers how he thinks about adverse selection, the top-down vs. origination debate, white labeling as a business model, maker vs. taker fee structures, and what it actually cost him to learn some of his biggest lessons — including a brutal opening day of baseball where flipped spreads and totals nearly wiped out everything he'd built.

📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.

@insidepredictionmarkets

This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

Chapters:

0:00 – NFL Sets Boundaries on Prediction Markets

2:48 – DraftKings Replay: The Product No One Asked For

5:30 – Kalshi Applies for Margin Trading: What It Actually Means

6:41 – Introducing Jake (@jbets212121)

7:10 – How To Go From Accountant to Professional Gambler

13:38 – Building a Quoting System in 10 Days

18:20 – Top Down vs. Origination: The Crossroads Decision

21:03 – Should Exchanges Stay Maker Friendly?

28:48 – What If Straight Markets Traded via RFQ?

33:47 – The Most Expensive Mistake He's Ever Made

#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

A state just filed criminal charges against a prediction market for the first time in U.S. history — and that's just where this week starts. Chris and Henry break down Arizona's lawsuit, what it means legally, and why sportsbooks may be quietly pulling the strings. Then: the Polymarket Situation Room's rocky launch, the Schiff-Curtis bill to ban sports markets, AOC piling on, and why a $50 billion industry isn't going anywhere on vibes alone.Then the guys sit down with Egzee — one of the largest individual market makers in Prediction Markets and the most talked-about intern in prediction markets history. He breaks down how he got started flipping cards in MLB The Show, spotted the same mechanics on election night, and built it into a serious operation — plus the creator ID debate, the originating vs. top-down argument, and what it really takes to survive as competition heats up.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting Chapters:0:00 – Arizona Sues a Prediction Market2:00 – The Polymarket Situation Room3:00 – The Bill That Could Kill Sports Betting on Prediction Markets9:05 - Egzee Joins the Show9:35 – How a Video Game Led to Making Generational Money11:50 – Egzee's BIG EDGE15:00 – Origination is Overrated18:25 – The Creator ID Debate23:30 – Are Sharp Takers Slowly Killing the Ecosystem?

Prediction markets are exploding — and Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky is right in the middle of it.In this episode of Inside Prediction Markets, we sit down with Jacob to break down how Novig went from a scrappy startup to a serious player in the space, why prediction markets are starting to compete with sportsbooks, and what the future of betting might actually look like.We also get into the moment Novig actually felt like it might work, why most betting markets are inefficient and where the real edge is, the betting strategy that got Jacob limited early on, how prediction markets could reshape sports betting entirely, and advice for founders looking to build in this space.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.0:00 How Jacob Fortinsky Started Novig3:43 Regulation, CFTC & Longevity9:38 When Novig Started Feeling “Real”14:48 The Future of Prediction Markets17:39 Infrastructure is King23:30 The Power of Ball Knowledge25:20 Being Limited with Jacob Fortinsky29:17 Politics Market Inefficiencies#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Prediction markets are suddenly being valued like Silicon Valley unicorns. But are those numbers real — or just hype?This week on Inside Prediction Markets, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes break down the rumors that major platforms could be chasing $20 BILLION valuations after recent funding rounds. Is the industry really on that trajectory… or are investors getting ahead of themselves?We’re also joined by Dustin Gouker, one of the most respected voices covering gambling and prediction markets. He shares why he believes prediction markets still need much stronger consumer protections.The group digs into the growing tension between federal market regulation and state sports-betting oversight, why high tax rates are distorting the market, and whether giants like DraftKings and FanDuel are poised to dominate if they enter the space.And perhaps the biggest question of all:Are prediction markets about to reshape the entire information economy — or are we still in the Wild West?📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.https://youtube.com/@InsidePredictionMarketsWhat to expect:📈 Market Deep Dives: Breaking down the biggest active markets in politics, tech, and culture.🎙️ Expert Guests: Conversations with top the sharpest market makers.🧠 Strategy Analysis: the unique mechanics that make prediction markets superior to polls and pundits.This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.00:00 Are Prediction Markets Worth $20B?01:30 RFQ Controversy Explained05:48 Why did Underdog buy Aristotle?07:08 What's Dustin Gouker's Problem with Prediction Markets?09:41 Are Prediction Markets Actually Safer?14:17 Are Prediction Markets Still the Wild West?21:15 Will Prediction Markets Be Taxed?26:15 Will DraftKings and FanDuel Prediction Markets Be Successful?

The debate around prediction markets just exploded. After more than $54 million was wagered on whether Iran’s Supreme Leader would fall from power, traders expected the market to resolve — instead, bettors were left furious when the platform voided the outcome.So do “death markets” actually exist? And where should the line be drawn between forecasting geopolitical events and profiting from them?On this episode of Inside Prediction Markets, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes break down the controversy shaking the industry — from the ethics of markets tied to political instability to the massive wagers placed on Iran’s leadership.Plus, we’re joined by Sports Predictions for an interview about how he’s built an edge in prediction markets, the strategies he uses to find value where others miss it, and what this latest controversy reveals about the future of the space.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.https://youtube.com/@InsidePredictionMarketsWhat to expect:📈 Market Deep Dives: Breaking down the biggest active markets in politics, tech, and culture.🎙️ Expert Guests: Conversations with top the sharpest market makers.🧠 Strategy Analysis: the unique mechanics that make prediction markets superior to polls and pundits.This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.0:17 - Iran Khomeini Market9:28 - DraftKings PM Margins13:00 - Underdog Layoffs & PM Shift14:50 - Sports Projections Joins the Show17:32 - Transition from Casual DFS to Serious Betting21:45 - Player Props & College Football Strategy26:31 - Getting Into Prediction Markets29:37 - Tick Size Debate37:05 - "More Rake Is Better" - Fee Discussion42:13 - Companies to Buy & Sell in PM Space50:43 - Five Year Prediction for PM Industry55:22 - Most Expensive Mistake

This week, the markets went into a frenzy. From extraterrestrial leaks to massive winter storms, the guys are breaking down who cashed in and who’s full of it.In This Episode:0:00 The Alien Explosion: President Obama dropped some cryptic ET info that sent markets soaring. Are Chris and Henry buying the hype, or is it all noise?2:00 SNOW SNOW SNOW: A massive snowstorm hit New York, and some savvy viewers turned the weather into a massive payday. We look at the winning trades.3:30 Chris Christie Sounds Off: Chris Christie is attacking prediction markets. Is he truly concerned, or just carrying water for the American Gaming Association?5:18 Betting on Yourself: "Boy Wonder" Liam Kane joins the show to give the inside scoop on why he walked away from his full-time gig to go independent.Read WSJ feature on Liam: https://www.wsj.com/business/media/super-bowl-prediction-betting-1302feda?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

The gloves are off! The federal government is demanding that states stand down on efforts to regulate and restrict prediction markets. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig has a blunt message for state regulators: "I'll see you in court" if you step on the toes of his agency.But is this jurisdictional turf war actually good for the consumer? And what does it mean for the future of the industry? Two of the sharpest betters and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, dive into the implications on the debut episode of Inside Prediction Markets.

📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays

What to expect:

📈 Market Deep Dives: Breaking down the biggest active markets in politics, tech, and culture.

🎙️ Expert Guests: Conversations with top the sharpest market makers.

🧠 Strategy Analysis: the unique mechanics that make prediction markets superior to polls and pundits.This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

00:36 CFTC vs States: Who Regulates Prediction Markets?

02:09 Why the CFTC stance is great for Novig and prediction markets

04:20 Consumer Protection & Responsible Gambling: Real Talk

05:26 DraftKings Earnings deep dive

08:10 Can sportsbooks compete with Prediction Markets?

09:39 Prediction Markets enter the Grocery Store game

13:55 Prediction Market Trends

17:58 The Edge Is Getting Harder: ARBs Dry Up and Sharps Adapt

19:17 Vice Documentary Review

22:08 Coming up next