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National Capitalism & Death of the International Monetary System | Russell Napier
Épisode 392
lundi 2 décembre 2024 • Durée 56:47
In Episode 392 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with author, investor, and financial historian Russell Napier, about how to navigate a seminal transition in the global trade and monetary order. This episode aims to provide you with the tools to understand, value, and manage the assets, exposures, and risks in your portfolios and to capitalize on opportunities that come along only once every hundred years.
In the first hour, Demetri and Russell Napier discuss the origins of the non-system that came to shape international trade and finance in the decades after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods international system of fixed exchange rates. They discuss the de-pegging of the RMB from the USD, the closing of the gap between the discount rate and the growth rate in developed economies, and the implications of America’s escalating economic war against China.
In the second hour, which is available to premium subscribers only, Russell Napier and Kofinas focus most of their time on the implications of this breakdown in the international trade and monetary system for investors. They discuss how developed world governments are likely to repress capital, what you want to own in such a world, what you don’t want to own, and how to tell the difference. They also discuss what a new Chinese monetary order might look like, which countries would participate, and how such a system would build off China’s efforts to digitize the Yuan and create a Chinese-built digital payments infrastructure that extends beyond China’s borders as part of the Digital Silk Road initiative. They also discuss the prospects for a strategic Bitcoin fund, the use of stablecoins as an extension of Dollar hegemony, and the fate of the Euro in a world torn between Beijing and Washington.
You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following:
The End of the German Economic Miracle | Wolfgang Münchau
Épisode 391
lundi 25 novembre 2024 • Durée 52:08
In Episode 391 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Wolfgang Münchau, the director and co-founder of Eurointelligence and the author of a phenomenal new book about post-WWII Germany, the rise and fall of the German economy, its industrial sector, and the end of what he dubs “The German Miracle.”
Wolfgang Münchau and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode laying the foundation to help listeners understand how Germany became the economic and financial juggernaut that we have known it to be throughout the 1990s and most of the 21st century. They discuss the two pillars of the German economy, the supercharging of its industrial growth model during the period of globalization and unipolarity, and the cultural, technological, and geopolitical sources of its economic decline.
In the second hour, Kofinas and Münchau zero in on the ten structural sources of weakness for the German economy, including the German capital model and banking system, a corporatism that misaligns incentives between the interests of politicians and those of the economy, the fiscal doomsday machine in the form of Germany’s debt brake, a radicalizing electorate, and a political mindset among German elite that treats geopolitical risk as an economic externality to be safely discounted or ignored entirely.
You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following:
The U.S. Assassination and Terror Threat | Jacob Ware
Épisode 382
lundi 23 septembre 2024 • Durée 49:31
In Episode 382 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jacob Ware, an expert in domestic and international terrorism, counterterrorism, and assassination, about the growing U.S. assassination and terror threat ahead of the 2024 elections.
Jacob and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation discussing the two recent assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump, what we know about both assassins, the breakdowns in security, and what needs to happen going forward if we want to avoid a potentially successful attempt on the former president’s life. Demetri and Jacob also discuss the growing trend in assassination attempts and compare the terror threat posed by organizations inspired by leftist ideology with that posed by right-wing extremists.
In the second hour, the two discuss the terrifying threat posed by dual-use technologies and their deployment in both international and civil wars. They also discuss whether a civil war in the United States is possible, what such a war would look like, and if this term is even useful in helping us understand the evolution of political violence in America. Finally, they explore the potential for such further violence headed into election day, the types of attacks that we might see, and how our information environment continues to be weaponized in a battle for the future of the country.
You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following:
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Navigating the Converging Worlds of Macro & Geopolitics | Roger Hirst & Jacob Shapiro
Épisode 292
lundi 9 janvier 2023 • Durée 51:45
In Episode 292 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Roger Hirst and Jacob Shapiro. Roger has spent over two decades on the equity derivative desks at various investment banks and is currently the Managing Editor of Real Vision Creative Studios. Jacob is Partner & Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments and Founder and Chief Strategist of the business and political risk consulting firm Perch Perspectives. Both Roger and Jacob are part of a small and highly talented team of content creators at financial media company Lykeion, where they co-author a monthly research publication focused on the converging worlds of Geopolitics & Macro.
The first hour of today’s conversation is devoted to a discussion about the move from a unipolar world order to a multipolar one. The forces that are bringing that multipolarity about and its impact on global security, international trade and commerce are a key part of that conversation, as is Russia’s war in Ukraine and the future of the European Union. In the second hour, Roger and Jacob give their assessments on what all of this means for the global economy and the market opportunities available to investors. This includes a conversation about inflation, the bull case for commodities, investment opportunities in emerging markets, central bank policy, and much more.
You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you.
If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Turkey-Syria & the New Geopolitics of the Greater Middle East | Joshua Landis
Épisode 291
lundi 2 janvier 2023 • Durée 52:56
In Episode 291 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Joshua Landis. Landis is the director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and a widely recognized Syria expert. He was last on the podcast over three years ago to discuss the then-ongoing invasion of northern Syria by the Turkish military and the long-term withdrawal of American forces from the Middle East and Central Asia.
The background for today’s conversation are the ongoing negotiations between Turkey, Russia, and Syria and President Erdoğan’s desire to expand Turkey’s military presence in northern Syria. Erdoğan’s stated aim is to create a larger buffer zone in which to transfer Syrian refugees and from which to defend Turkey from the threat posed by an independent Kurdish state aligned with elements of The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Ankara’s jingoistic rhetoric may be in part responsible for bringing Russia and Syria to the table and we may be on the verge of a reset in Turkish-Syrian relations and a reproachment between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and President Bashar al-Assad. The implications of such a reset would be profound for the Syrian people and is further evidence of Turkey’s bid for strategic autonomy. It is also reflective of the emerging geopolitical complexities of the Middle East and Europe, which have only been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.
Joshua Landis and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation focused mostly on the historical antecedents of the conflict in Syria and the larger American presence in the Middle East. They devote the second hour to assessing long-term prospects for Turkey as a regional power, the role of the EU and NATO as counterbalancing forces to Turkish aggression in the Aegean, and the prospects for normalization of relations between Turkey and Syria and what this means for the US and Europe long-term.
You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you.
What Is Silvergate Capital & Why Does It Matter? | Edwin Dorsey
Épisode 290
mercredi 28 décembre 2022 • Durée 03:00
In Episode 290 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Edwin Dorsey. Edwin is the author of “The Bear Cave,” a financial newsletter focused on exposing corporate misconduct that regularly moves markets and is cited frequently in Bloomberg terminal breaking news alerts. Edwin was recently profiled in Institutional Investor and is part of a wave of new authors on Substack who are changing the landscape of financial journalism.
Today’s conversation focuses on Silvergate, a little-known but very important bank that recently found itself under investigation by US Senators Elizabeth Warren, Roger Marshall, and John Kennedy for its role in facilitating the movement of funds critical to the operations of Sam Bankman-Fried's failed crypto Exchange, FTX. Silvergate describes itself as the "leading bank for innovative businesses in FinTech and cryptocurrency," but its main business appears to have been facilitating payments between crypto hedge funds like Alameda and crypto exchanges like FTX. It already faces at least one class action lawsuit, alleging that the company aided and abetted FTX's fraudulent activities and breaches of the exchange's fiduciary duty through improper transfers, and through the lending and commingling of user funds. This evolving story extends well beyond Silvergate and helps you piece together some of the larger story that we have been trying to tell on this podcast in the last few months.
If you want to listen to it, you can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you.
If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Are We Headed Towards a Monetary Breakdown? | Jeff Snider
Épisode 289
lundi 26 décembre 2022 • Durée 55:59
In Episode 289 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jeff Snider. Jeff is Chief Strategist for Atlas Financial and co-host of the Eurodollar University podcast where he untangles the inner workings of the global monetary and Eurodollar reserve currency system with implications for policymakers and investors.
The public often takes for granted the Federal Reserve’s ability to end economic recessions by engaging in what is popularly referred to as “money printing.” Unfortunately, the reality is much more complicated and Jeff and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation explaining what makes it so and why it matters. They spend the second hour of their conversation discussing what a recession will look like in 2023-2024, how bad it could get, and why it could lead to a monetary breakdown as we transition from a world of perpetual QE to one of permanent fiscal stimulus. What this means for investors and the value of our money is a critical part of their discussion and one you do not want to miss.
You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and takeaway’s at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to send an email to info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you.
If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
Why You Should Care About the Twitter Files | Renée DiResta
Épisode 288
lundi 19 décembre 2022 • Durée 01:03:52
In Episode 288 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Renee DiResta about the recent revelations stemming from the Twitter Files, why we should care about them, and what we can do to fix the problems of unaccountable censorship and misinformation on social media.
Renée is the technical research manager at the Stanford Internet Observatory, where she investigates the spread of narratives across social media and how actors leverage these networks to exert influence. She has advised Congress, the State Department, and other academic, civic, and business organizations, and has studied disinformation and computational propaganda in the context of pseudoscience conspiracies, terrorism, and state-sponsored information warfare, which makes her the perfect person to speak to about this incredibly important and timely topic.
For those who are unfamiliar with this story, Elon Musk, who recently purchased Twitter for 44 billion dollars invited Bari Weiss, Matt Taibbi, Michael Shellenberger, and several other journalists to look into the Twitter archives. What they found has confirmed many of the pre-existing beliefs of the American right, who see the published internal Twitter communications as evidence that partisan executives took deliberate actions to limit access to information and voices that could damage Democrats. The most salient argument here is that Twitter put its thumb on the scale by removing certain prominent accounts from trending, through suppression of both search and amplification. Even if the intent wasn't partisan, the impact was. At least, that’s the way the right sees it. On the left, the Twitter Files are being dismissed as a “nothing burger,” or at least as not revealing anything that we didn’t already know about for years. Defenders note that Twitter's terms of service say that the company limits the reach of certain posts in select cases and that Musk himself advocates for a similar policy. Indeed, Musk recently suspended the accounts of several journalists on the platform, including Lenett Lopez, whose social media account he raided four years ago. These defenders add further that Weiss provided anecdotes, rather than a comprehensive investigation, so it's impossible to conclude that such limitations were slanted in one direction or another.
How Much of Crypto Is a Criminal Conspiracy? | James Block
Épisode 287
jeudi 15 décembre 2022 • Durée 49:43
In Episode 287 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with James Block. James is the author of Dirty Bubble Media, a popular substack account that publishes critical thought pieces about the crypto industry and which was recently featured in an Atlantic magazine article titled, “Crypto Was Always Smoke and Mirrors.”
In this conversation, Demetri and James discuss what they believe is a multi-billion dollar criminal conspiracy that involves money laundering, tax evasion, sanctions evasion, and other forms of illicit activity that sits at the very heart of the crypto ecosystem.
One of the challenges that comes with trying to cover the seedy underbelly of crypto is that you are forced to wade through an almost infinite amount of evidence, much of which is circumstantial. The bankruptcy of FTX however, has produced new, critical pieces of information that investigators are using to sketch out the contours of this organization, the players involved, and the extent of conspiracy in ways that had previously proven difficult or impossible.
It is a story that we have not heard discussed anywhere else, at least not in the framework that you are going to learn about today. It is precisely this framework that Demetri believes will help you better understand what is actually going on here.
You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you want access to our Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, feel free to send an email to info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you.
If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
China's Plan to Decouple From the US Dollar | Diana Choyleva & Dinny McMahon
Épisode 286
lundi 5 décembre 2022 • Durée 45:15
In Episode 286 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Diana Choyleva and Dinny McMahon, the co-authors of a comprehensive new report that examines China’s plans to decouple from the dollar-based global trading and financial system.
In this conversation, Choyleva and McMahon discuss Beijing’s rationale for wanting to transform the renminbi into an international currency, how the Chinese communist party is striving to make that transformation, why it might prove unattainable, and what progress we can expect them to make over the coming decade. Regardless of whether the yuan proves capable of challenging US Dollar hegemony, the changes that Beijing is pursuing will have a profound impact on the functioning of trade and financial markets around the world. These changes will create new challenges for governments, businesses, and investors. Understanding what these challenges are, the steps that Beijing will take to overcome them, and how policymakers in the US and Europe will respond is crucial to making any reliable forecast about the future of the international political economy.
If you want to listen to the second part of this conversation, which includes a discussion about the digital renminbi, how Beijing is trying to institutionalize yuan outflows and increase international demand for the yuan, and policy prescriptions for Western governments you can do that by becoming a subscriber to one of our three content tiers at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. All subscribers get access to our premium feed which you can listen to on your phone using your favorite podcast app just like you are listening to this episode right now.
If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of our Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, feel free to send an email to info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you.
Demetri wanted to use this opportunity to shift the conversation away from politics and towards something more constructive by speaking to both sides of the political spectrum. In their conversation, Kofinas and DiResta discuss a wide range of social, philosophical, and policy issues related to social media, including ways of bringing more transparency and accountability to these technology platforms.
If you want access to the second hour of today's conversation, you can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.
If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of our Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can do that through our subscriber page as well. If you have further questions, feel free to send an email to info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you.
If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:
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