Filiberto sits down with Dennis Draeger and Marco Bevolo to go through a Shaping Tomorrow report on the K-shaped split in consumer goods. Demand is moving to premium or to value, and the middle price tier is emptying.
Dennis builds four scenarios on two open questions. Does the K deepen, or does the middle fill back up? And do private labels keep gaining on brands? In one scenario, quality-value convergence, brands and own label compete on quality per price until the line between them blurs.
The picture changes by region. Private label already holds about half of European supermarket sales. In the US, retailers sell premium own label, often at A-brand prices. In India and China, premium reaches buyers through sachets and small packs. In Europe and North America, premium now rests more on efficacy and scientific proof than on heritage.
Marco turns this into four decisions for the next planning cycle: move each mainstream brand up, down or out; write a separate value-tier playbook for each region; audit any premium claim that rests on heritage alone; and give the C-suite a regional early-warning dashboard.
The last part of the conversation ranges wider. It covers Lidl behaving like a cultural brand, younger shoppers, microfactories, the Guinness brewery as a destination, and Marco’s example of Nestlé’s Russian operations being taken over by the state.00:00 Guests, the report and the K-shape question
09:56 Four scenarios for the next five to ten years
15:10 What drives premium: efficacy, private label, sachets and oil
19:31 Why the K looks different in the US, Europe and emerging markets
25:39 Four strategic implications for the next planning cycle
37:52 Beyond the report: Lidl, Gen Z, microfactories, Guinness and geopolitics
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