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China Buys US Wheat/Sorghum + Tech Stocks Crash on Data Center Fears
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🇨🇳🌾 Chinese buyers signed $600 million in US sorghum and wheat purchase agreements with Illinois-based Hang Tung Resources at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai. The deals come as China lags far behind its $17 billion annual commitment for US farm goods beyond soybeans, buying just $7.2 billion through September.
📉💻 The stock market plunged Thursday as a massive tech and AI selloff pushed the Nasdaq down 5.5% and into correction territory, while the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the Dow dropped 3.4%. Investors worried that Democrats’ sweeping midterm victories could bring tighter AI regulations, erasing Wednesday’s strong postelection rally.
🏦📈 Treasuries rallied as investors fled to safe-haven assets, sending yields down as much as 12 basis points to their lowest levels since early September. Traders are now scaling back expectations for more Fed rate hikes, with some positioning for no change in December.
🫘🌽 Soybean futures extended their losing streak to nine straight sessions, with the Jan27 contract falling 14 cents to $11.88 on expectations of a record-large US crop. Corn also slipped on big-crop expectations, while wheat edged higher on technical buying despite Russia-Ukraine peace deal optimism.
🚢📦 US soybean export sales fell 44% week over week to 1.5 MMT, though China was the top buyer, and accumulated sales are up an impressive 76% from last year. Corn sales held steady at 1.3 MMT, with Mexico leading, while wheat sales dropped 37% to 538,000 MT, with the Philippines as the top buyer.
☀️🏜️ USDA’s latest drought monitor showed worsening conditions in northern Indiana, southern Illinois, and Missouri, while Minnesota and the High Plains saw improvement. About 31% of the Corn Belt is in drought, down from 35% a year ago, and the dry weather has been ideal for harvest.
Is China Backing Out?? Tough Talk on US Ag Purchases Following Blue Wave Election
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🇨🇳 China says it’s open to buying more US farm goods, but only once the “$30 billion-for-$30 billion” tariff-cut deal is implemented. Beijing’s non-soybean ag purchases hit just $7.2 billion through September, the lowest for that period since 2019. 🤝🌾
🛢️ WTI crude plunged 8.3% to $88.12, its lowest close since late August, on hopes for a US-Iran deal after Democrats took both chambers of Congress. Some analysts warn the selloff may be overdone, since neither side looks ready to make major concessions. 📉⚔️
🌱 January soybeans fell nearly 12 cents to about $12.02, the lowest since mid-August, pressured by weaker crude and expectations for a massive US crop. December corn bounced 2 cents to $4.44 on oversold conditions, while wheat slipped on hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace talks. 🌽🌾
🚜 John Deere will close its Ottumwa and Clarion, Iowa, factories and move sugar cane harvester production from Louisiana to Brazil. The restructuring comes just a week after Deere announced recalls and new hiring across several Midwest plants. 🏭🔄
🏛️ The USDA and CFTC signed an MOU to strengthen oversight, share information, and expand risk management tools for farmers and ranchers. It follows the CFTC’s plan to publish Commitments of Traders reports twice a week starting in December. 📊🤠
⛽ US ethanol production hit 1.14 million barrels per day, the second-highest level on record and up 2.2% from the prior week. Ethanol margins strengthened across the Corn Belt, now running 30 to 70 cents per gallon positive. 💪🌽
🇧🇷 Rabobank expects Brazilian soybean exports to dip to 113 MMT, with production forecast at 178 MMT amid rising costs, tight margins, and El Niño concerns. That’s well below the USDA’s forecast of a record 186 MMT Brazilian crop. 🌦️💸
🇪🇸 USDA reported a flash sale of 167,000 MT (6 million bushels) of soybeans to Spain for 2026/27 delivery. Accumulated US soybean sales are now running 80% ahead of last year’s pace. 🚢📈
Democrats Sweep: Will Farmers Still Get $8B in Aid? + MONSTER Corn/Soybean Crop Estimates
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🗳️ Midterm Results: Democrats are projected to take control of both the House and Senate, flipping Senate seats in Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas, plus governor’s races in Ohio and Texas. 📊 Grain markets are quiet this morning while stocks trade higher, and the recent $8 billion farmer relief package is safe since it was approved through the CCC without needing Congress. 💵
🌽 StoneX Crop Forecast: StoneX raised its 2026 corn yield to 183.1 bpa (above USDA’s 181.2), pushing total production to 16.20 billion bushels, with Iowa leading at 216 bpa. 🫘 Soybean yield was bumped to 55.0 bpa vs. USDA’s 53.1, putting production at 4.73 billion bushels, led by Illinois at 68 bpa. 📈
🏥 ACA Premiums: Obamacare marketplace premiums are expected to climb 13% in 2027 after a 26% jump this year, ranging from 3% in Vermont to 28% in Arizona. ⚠️ The expiration of enhanced tax credits means those earning over 400% of the federal poverty level now pay full price for coverage. 💸
📉 Futures Recap: Dec26 corn fell about 6¢ to ~$4.43/bu, its lowest close since early July, as export sales run 34% behind last year’s pace. 🫘 Jan27 soybeans slipped 3¢ to $12.14/bu on big-crop expectations, while wheat also closed lower despite optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace talks. 🌾
🚢 Flash Sales: USDA reported 315,000mt of corn sold to Mexico and 136,000mt to South Korea for 2026/27 delivery. 📦 Exporters also sold 134,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations. 🌍
🏭 ADM Earnings: ADM raised its profit outlook for the third straight quarter, with crushing profits soaring to $311 million from just $13 million a year ago. ⛽ The US-Iran war boosted crude prices and biofuel demand, and ADM now expects a ~$350 million benefit from the 45Z tax credit. 💰
👨🌾 Farmer Sentiment: The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer rose to 126 in October, though only 62% of farmers report a strong balance sheet, down from 76% in January. 📉 Just 35% believe higher tariffs will strengthen the ag economy, down from 58% a year ago. 🇺🇸
Did Trump FIX Soybeans?? Record Demand Projected, China Is Buying
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🚢 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections stayed strong at 2.4mmt (90 mil bu), with year-to-date totals running 56% ahead of last year and China taking about 63% of the week’s volume. 📉 Corn rose 39% week-over-week to 884,766mt, while wheat posted an all-time record weekly low of just 75,413mt, down 61% from the prior week.
💰 Flash Sales: Mexico bought 1.7mmt (68 mil bu) of US corn, split between 2026/27 and 2027/28 delivery. 🇨🇳 Exporters also sold 136,000mt (5 mil bu) of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery.
🛢️ China’s Soybean Oil Glut: China’s soybean oil stocks climbed to a record near 1.5 million tons as crushing outpaces sluggish demand, pushing exports to more than triple from a year ago. 🤝 China’s lead trade negotiator also met with a US ag delegation Monday, as Chinese purchases of non-soybean US farm goods head toward a seven-year low.
📊 Futures Recap: Jan soybeans dropped roughly 18¢ to $12.17/bu, their lowest close since mid-August, on falling crude, fund liquidation and strong yields. 🌽 Dec corn edged up a penny to $4.48/bu despite harvest pressure, and wheat closed slightly higher as Russia-Ukraine attacks dimmed hopes for a Black Sea shipping deal.
🚜 Harvest Progress: Corn harvest jumped to 74% complete, just behind the 77% average, with delays persisting in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa. 🌱 Soybeans reached 88% done (ahead of the 84% average), while winter wheat planting hit 83%, short of the 86% traders expected.
🇧🇷 Brazil Planting: AgRural says Brazil’s soybean crop is 53% planted, ahead of last year’s 47% despite wet conditions in the south and dryness in the north. 🌽 Brazil’s first corn crop is 63% planted, also ahead of last year’s 59% pace.
Money Managers Have Sold 1.7 BILLION Bushels of Corn in 6 Weeks - Prices Plunge
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📊 Fund Positioning: Large money managers were net sellers of 83k corn contracts for the week ending October 27, bringing their total reduction since the mid-September peak to 333k contracts. Funds also sold 28k soybean contracts and 23k SRW wheat contracts.
🌽 Weekly Grain Recap: Dec26 corn fell nearly 4 cents to about $4.48, its fifth straight weekly loss, on fund liquidation and harvest progress. Jan27 soybeans slipped to about $12.34, the lowest close since mid-August, while wheat posted a ninth consecutive weekly loss on expectations of more Russian exports. 📉
🇺🇦 Ukraine-Russia & Black Sea: Ukraine ended a two-week pause and struck a refinery in Russia’s Samara region, despite pressure from the Trump administration to stop. The escalation follows Russia issuing permits for grain vessels to leave the Sea of Azov, and Secretary of State Rubio cited “growing interest” in a partial Black Sea ceasefire. 🚢
🛢️ Crude Oil: Dec26 WTI dropped below $100/bbl overnight after peaking near $105 Friday, as Iranian and Qatari officials held talks in Doha on ending the US-Iran war. Some analysts still see upside risk, with Goldman Sachs projecting Brent could reach $140 in 2027 if Gulf output stays well below 2025 levels. ⛽
🫘 Soybean Flash Sale: USDA reported a flash sale of 297,150 mt (11 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/27 delivery. Accumulated soybean sales are running 80% ahead of the same period last year. 📈
💻 Binance Hack: Binance resumed withdrawals Sunday after a record $6.3 billion theft blamed on a North Korean state-sponsored hacking group. The exchange says about 90% of the stolen assets have been replenished, but the incident sparked heavy withdrawals and a broader crypto sell-off. 🔐
China Hasn't Bought US Wheat or Corn, But They're Thinking About It
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🌾 China Eyes US Wheat: State-owned grain trader Cofco has inquired about buying US soft red winter wheat for delivery next year, following the September Trump–Xi tariff agreement. China has bought more than half of its 25mmt soybean pledge but still hasn’t purchased any US corn or wheat this marketing year, and its own wheat supplies remain ample after another bumper harvest.
🚜 Ag Industry Headwinds: AGCO cut its annual sales outlook, with its CEO saying global farm machinery demand is at its weakest in more than a decade, though the company sees a possible recovery in 2027. Bunge held its earnings guidance but expects lower soybean crush profits, while proposed increases in biofuel blending requirements offer a potential bright spot for corn and soybean demand.
📈 Strong Export Sales: Net soybean sales hit 2.6mmt (95 mil bu) for the week ending October 22, with China the top buyer, and corn sales came in at 1.3mmt (51 mil bu), led by Mexico. Wheat finally had a strong week at 849,800mt (31 mil bu), beating expectations, with the Philippines as the largest buyer.
☀️ Drought Update: Warm, dry weather worsened drought across parts of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri, though it kept harvest moving at a good pace. Scattered rain improved conditions in parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Oklahoma, while 50% of winter wheat areas are still in drought.
🤖 AI and Crop Insurance: A new private insurance product will use AI to assess field-level risk, potentially saving corn and soybean farmers $10–$15 per acre on supplemental coverage. Launching in 15 Corn Belt states next year, it could lift total coverage up to 90% and may reward conservation practices like no-till and cover crops.
🛒 USDA $472.5M Purchase: The USDA plans to buy $472.5 million in US farm goods, from lentils and almonds to pork and dairy, for charitable food networks and nutrition programs. Secretary Brooke Rollins framed the move as part of the administration’s effort to put farmers first and advance its Make America Healthy Again agenda.
MASSIVE New Ethanol Plant in ND + Putin to Jumpstart Grain Shipments
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🌽 New Ethanol Plant for North Dakota: RoughRider Energy plans a facility near Glen Ullin that would use 84 million bushels of corn a year to produce 240 million gallons of ethanol, starting in 2029. 🏭 CO2 from the plant would be piped to a Summit Carbon storage site about 15 miles north, while Gevo has proposed a separate 75-million-gallon plant near Richardton.
📉 Soybeans Slide, Corn Edges Up: January soybeans fell 5 cents to $12.38 on fund liquidation and worries that resumed Black Sea shipments could cut into US export demand. 🌾 Dec corn gained 3 cents to about $4.52 on bargain buying, while wheat posted its ninth loss in 10 sessions.
🚢 Sea of Azov Reopens to Grain Ships: Russia has issued permits letting grain vessels leave the Sea of Azov through November 15, after traffic was halted on July 10 by Ukrainian drone attacks. ⚠️ With no ceasefire in place, some ships are expected to travel under Russian naval escort.
🏦 Fed Holds Rates Steady: The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% as inflation rose to 3.7% in September. 📊 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no clear signal for December, and traders still expect a hike next month but fewer increases in 2027.
🇺🇸 Soybean Flash Sale: USDA reported a sale of 120,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year. 🚀 Total US soybean export sales are running 81% ahead of last year’s pace.
⛽ Ethanol Output Hits 13-Week High: US ethanol production climbed to 1.12 million barrels per day, up 2.2% from the prior week, with stocks nearly steady at 24.52 million barrels. 💰 Corn Belt ethanol margins strengthened to between 25 and 65 cents per gallon positive.
🎲 Kalshi Weighs New Safeguards: CEO Tarek Mansour says the prediction market is exploring ways to protect users from losses and is open to raising the minimum age from 18 to 21. 🔒 The company has already set a $2,500 monthly deposit limit for users under 21 and will place them in special accounts that discourage risky behavior.
Corn is Worth $3.50/bu in North Dakota + Fed to Hold Rates Despite Inflation
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🌽 Corn and soybean futures extended their losses Tuesday, with Dec26 corn down ~6 cents to near $4.59/bu and Jan27 soybeans off nearly 10 cents to $12.43/bu. 📉 A sharp drop in the Brazilian real after Lula’s reelection, a fast-moving harvest, and fund liquidation all weighed on prices.
🌾 Wheat futures kept sliding on currency headwinds and optimism that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal could normalize Black Sea trade flows. 🕊️ Dec26 SRW wheat fell ~6 cents to near $6.10/bu, while Dec26 HRW dropped ~9 cents to around $6.51/bu.
🏦 The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady this week, with markets pricing in a ~90% chance of a pause per CME’s FedWatch tool. 🔥 But with September inflation at 3.7%, traders see an ~80% chance of a quarter-point hike in December and possibly more in 2027.
🌱 Syngenta is targeting a Hong Kong IPO as early as January 2027 at a valuation of at least $66 billion, potentially raising $5-10 billion. 💰 The Sinochem-controlled company plans to sell a 10-20% stake to cut debt and invest in seeds and crop protection.
🪙 Amundi expects gold to rebound to around $4,500/oz after a selloff pushed prices below $4,000, their lowest since mid-July. 📊 Central bank buying and safe-haven demand could support a recovery, though the firm doubts gold will hit $5,000 by year-end.
🌦️ A strong El Niño could cut Brazil’s soybean crop to 163.6mmt versus 181.2mmt under neutral conditions, according to Serasa Experian, with most losses in the west-central region. 🇧🇷 Meanwhile, Brazilian soybean planting reached 40% complete, ahead of last year’s 36% pace.
Soybeans Hit 2-Month Low on Quick Harvest, Brazil Currency Plunge
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🌽 Harvest Progress: US corn harvest jumped to 60% complete last week, still trailing the 66% five-year average, while soybeans hit 79% and pulled ahead of the 77% average. 🌾 Winter wheat planting reached 76%, just shy of its 77% average pace.
📉 Soybean & Corn Futures: Jan27 soybeans fell 16 cents to about $12.53, a two-month low, after Brazil’s real plunged roughly 12% following Lula’s surprise reelection. 🌽 Dec26 corn slipped a penny to $4.55, its lowest close since early July, pressured by soybeans, harvest progress, and weaker crude.
🇧🇷 Brazil Election Fallout: Lula’s win is a setback for Brazil’s farm lobby, which backed Flávio Bolsonaro and has clashed with Lula over land rights, environmental rules, and taxes. 🤝 The group now plans to work with Congress and the executive branch to push for relief for struggling farmers.
🚢 Wheat & the Black Sea: Dec26 SRW wheat dropped 9 cents to $6.16, its lowest since early July, on reports Russia is weighing proposals to secure Black Sea grain shipments. ⚠️ Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell 62% in September, and rerouting through the Baltic hasn’t yet made up the difference.
📊 CFTC COT Changes: Starting in December, the CFTC will release its Commitments of Traders report twice a week, on Wednesdays and Fridays at 2:30pm CST. 🗓️ We’ll keep publishing full Fund Tracker charts weekly and update our Daily Fund Tracker as new data drops.
🚛 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections hit 2.5mmt, up 20% week over week, with China taking about 67% and year-to-date totals running 42% ahead of last year. 📦 Corn shipments came in at the low end of expectations at 625,233mt, while wheat disappointed at 183,824mt, with year-to-date totals down 35%.
SHOCK Brazil Election Sends Soybeans Lower + USDA "Processing Error"
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🇧🇷 Lula da Silva won a fourth term in Sunday’s runoff, edging out Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8% to 48.2% and becoming the first candidate in Brazil’s modern democracy to lose the first round but win the runoff. Bolsonaro is refusing to recognize the result; his Liberal Party now holds the most seats in both chambers of Congress, and the upset ranks as one of the biggest misses in US prediction market history after Kalshi had Bolsonaro’s odds as high as 88%.
💱 The Brazilian real plunged more than 10% against the US dollar as the “Bolsonaro trade” unwinds, adding to worries over debt, fiscal health, and the disputed result. A weaker real makes Brazilian soybeans cheaper on the world market, which is pressuring soybean futures this morning, with corn and wheat also trading lower.
🌽 The USDA corrected its September corn data after a processing error in Kansas and Nebraska, raising Nebraska’s yield to 182 bpa and cutting Kansas to 118 bpa. The national September yield was nudged up to 178.8 bpa, while the October forecast of 181.2 bpa stayed unchanged, adding to doubts about the reliability of USDA crop estimates.
📉 Large money managers were net sellers of 82k corn contracts for the week ending October 20 and have cut their net long by 250k contracts since peaking in mid-September. Funds also sold 28k soybean contracts and 19k SRW wheat contracts.
🫘 USDA’s Brazil attaché forecasts a record 184mmt Brazilian soybean crop, up 2% from last year but below USDA’s official 186mmt estimate. Good rainfall has helped planting, but persistent rain and severe weather in southern Brazil, along with El Niño’s expected effect on harvest, are risks to watch.
🚢 USDA reported a flash sale Friday of 116,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Even so, accumulated corn sales are still running 34% behind last year’s pace.
🐄 Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was strongly bullish, with September placements falling 12% year over year to a record monthly low of 1.78 million head, the third straight month of record lows. Heifers made up 37.8% of cattle on feed, down slightly from last year, which suggests some producers are holding back replacements but are not yet expanding herds aggressively.
US Corn Export Sales are Down Sharply - Lower Prices to Spark Demand??
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🚢 Export Sales Surge—Soybean sales hit 2.8mmt for the week ending Oct 15, well above the prior week and four-week average, with China the top buyer. Corn sales also beat expectations at 1.5mmt (Mexico leading), while wheat disappointed again at just 239,600mt. 📈
🇨🇳 China Flash Sales Continue—USDA reported another flash sale Thursday of 202,000mt of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery. Since October 14, China has bought roughly 2.4mmt (89mil bushels) of US soybeans via flash sales. 🫘
📊 Grain Futures Update—Dec26 corn slipped ~2¢ to $4.61, and Dec26 SRW wheat fell ~2¢ to $6.25 on harvest pressure and Black Sea peace talk hopes, as a ceasefire could unleash a flood of cheap wheat exports. Nov26 soybeans bucked the trend, climbing ~8¢ to $12.53 on the strong export sales print. 🌾
💧 Drought Monitor—Scattered Corn Belt rains brought no notable relief, with conditions worsening in Kentucky, Indiana, and central Illinois as 30% of the region sits in drought. Meanwhile, rainfall in the Southern Plains improved conditions in Kansas and Oklahoma, giving the HRW wheat crop a welcome boost. 🌧️
🇧🇷 South American Weather—Southern Brazil is forecast to get 1–5 inches above-normal rainfall over the next 15 days, with flooding risks in Paraná that could slow corn and soybean planting. Argentina stays dry through mid-November, though the wheat impact is expected to be minimal. 🌎
🛢️ Oil Prices Spike—Brent jumped 4% to $113.17 (highest close since early May), and WTI rose 2.4% to $99.47 after a Houthi drone targeted Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field and a tanker was struck near Oman. The US is reportedly moving a third carrier strike group toward the region, though Middle East crude exports have largely recovered above prewar levels. ⚠️
Putin is Ready to Talk, Wheat Drops + Did Corn Prices Just Bottom?
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🇷🇺🇺🇦 US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are expected to resume in November, possibly in Abu Dhabi, after Putin agreed following Wednesday’s meeting with US officials. The talks will focus on post-war security guarantees, though deep divisions remain and US-Ukraine ties have frayed after Trump’s diesel export deal with Russia.
🌾📉 Wheat futures tumbled on hopes for improved Black Sea shipping, with Dec26 Chicago wheat down 15 cents to $6.28 and Dec26 KC wheat off 18 cents to $6.73. Corn bounced from a 14-week low to close up about a penny at $4.63, while Nov26 soybeans slipped 3 cents to $12.45 under harvest pressure and record crop expectations.
🌊🌎 Investors are bracing for a potentially historic El Niño, with money managers adjusting portfolios for market disruptions that could last into early 2027. Droughts and floods could hit crop production and push food prices higher, with Indonesia, Brazil, and Colombia flagged as most vulnerable.
🇨🇳🫘 USDA announced more soybean flash sales Wednesday, including 134,000mt (5mil bushels) to China for 2026/27 delivery. Exporters also sold 165,000mt (6mil bushels) to Spain for the same marketing year.
⛽🌽 US ethanol production climbed to a five-week high at 1.094mil barrels per day, up 2.7% from the prior week but down 1.6% year over year. Stocks rose to 24.56mil barrels, and Corn Belt margins strengthened to a range of 20 to 65 cents per gallon positive.
₿📈 Bitcoin jumped as much as 2.4% to $84,737 Wednesday alongside tech stocks, fueled by strong earnings and AI enthusiasm, with spot Bitcoin ETFs pulling in $2.3 billion over the past month. Analysts cautioned the rally may reflect short covering rather than sustained demand, especially with trading volume remaining flat.
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🌽❓ The Nebraska Corn Board is pressing the USDA for answers after Nebraska’s corn yield was raised 11 bu/acre in the October Crop Production report, following a 6-bushel cut from August to September, even as good-to-excellent ratings have slid since mid-July. The board wants survey counts and response rates, warning that farmers are growing reluctant to fill out USDA surveys as trust in the reports erodes.
📉🌾 Corn fell for a sixth straight session Tuesday, with Dec26 down 5 cents to $4.62 and Nov26 soybeans down ~5 cents to $12.48 on fund liquidation and dry Corn Belt weather that should speed harvest. Expectations for a record soybean crop outweighed renewed Chinese buying, while wheat followed corn and beans lower.
🇨🇳🚢 China’s imports of US soybeans rebounded to 360,878mt in September, up from zero a year ago, but Brazil still supplied 10.7mmt, about 90% of the month’s total. Year-to-date, US imports are down 34% to 11.06mmt while Brazil’s are up 3.4% to 65.84mmt, and China has now bought just over half of its 25mmt purchase commitment.
🇧🇷🗳️ Brazil’s farm lobby could gain major influence if Flávio Bolsonaro, the heavy favorite at ~80% on Polymarket, wins the presidency, since he has pledged to let the farm caucus pick his agriculture minister. Agribusiness would push for cheaper credit and looser environmental rules, though his push for closer US ties could create friction with Brazil’s key buyer, China.
⚡🫘 USDA announced a flash sale of 612,000mt (22mil bu) of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery on Tuesday. China has bought 2mmt (77mil bu) through flash sales over the past week, and 2.084mmt across five sales since October 14th.
MORE Farm Aid - Trump Announces Another $8 BILLION in Payments
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📉 Corn and soybean futures closed lower on Monday, with Dec26 corn dropping about 7 cents to $4.67, its lowest settlement since mid-August, and Nov26 soybeans falling 8 cents to roughly $12.54. Dry harvest weather, funds selling out of long positions, and expectations of a record soybean crop weighed on prices, and wheat followed them lower. 🌾
🚜 The US harvest made big gains last week, with corn 44% complete and soybeans 64% complete, but both still trail their five-year averages. Iowa corn and Nebraska soybeans are furthest behind, and winter wheat planting had its slowest week on record. 🐢
🇧🇷 AgRural reports Brazilian soybean planting is 26% complete, slightly ahead of last year’s pace, helped by rain across central Brazil. First-crop corn planting is behind last year at 48%, as heavy rain in the south has slowed fieldwork. 🌧️
🚢 Weekly US soybean export inspections hit 2 million metric tons, up 80% from the prior week, with China taking about 64% of the total. Corn and wheat inspections both fell well short of expectations, with wheat shipments down 36% year to date. 📦
⚡ The USDA announced flash sales on Monday of 114,000mt of soybeans to China and 261,000mt to unknown destinations, all for the 2026/27 marketing year. These new sales add to the recent strength in soybean export demand. 🤝
📈 Tech stocks rebounded Monday, lifting the Nasdaq 1.2% and the S&P 500 0.4% after a rough week driven by hot inflation, doubts about AI profitability, and rising oil prices. Chip stocks led the recovery, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index broke an eight-session losing streak. 💻
Russia/Ukraine Grain Shipments are Down 40% - Is the "Starvation/Famine" Talk Real or Just Noise??
🇺🇦 Ukraine Grain Routes — Russian attacks have nearly halted Black Sea shipments, so Zelenskiy is asking Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary to let Ukrainian grain move through their countries. Hungary has signaled it will allow sealed corn trains through, a crucial lifeline since about 90% of Ukraine’s grain exports normally move by sea.
🌽 Grains Slide—Soybeans fell to $12.61, and Dec corn dropped to $4.74 as favorable weather is expected to speed harvest this week. Wheat posted its seventh straight weekly decline despite ongoing Black Sea disruptions.
📊 Fund Tracker—Money managers dumped 83k corn contracts last week and have cut their net long by 168k since mid-September. Funds also sold 8k soybean contracts, but their 250k net long position remains near record levels.
🚢 Flash Sales—USDA announced 558,000mt of soybeans sold to China and another 236,000mt to unknown destinations. Japan also bought 127,000mt of US corn for the 2026/27 marketing year.
📦 Export Sales—Corn sales were strong at 1.1mmt, up 42% from the four-week average, with Mexico leading the way. Soybean sales disappointed at 574,900mt, down 40% from the four-week average, while wheat came in light at 319,900mt.
💸 US Debt Interest—Interest costs on the national debt hit a record $1.05 trillion in fiscal 2026, now the third-largest category of federal spending. Experts say a crisis isn’t imminent, but the growing burden leaves the economy more vulnerable to shocks.
Soybeans SINK Despite Big Increase in Chinese Buying
🫘📉 Soybeans dropped sharply Thursday, with Nov26 down ~14 cents to $12.63/bu, the lowest settlement since late August. Harvest pressure, dry near-term forecasts, and a weak September crush outweighed renewed Chinese demand, while Dec26 corn slipped 3 cents to $4.78 and wheat followed lower.
🏭🛢️ NOPA’s September crush fell to a 13-month low at 296.3 million bushels, down 4.5% from August, as plant maintenance and harvest disruptions slowed processing. Soybean oil stocks dropped to 1.05 billion lbs, their lowest since November 2014 and below trade expectations.
🇧🇷🌱 Conab raised Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 181.62mmt and corn to 148.02mmt, with exports of both expected to climb. Acreage growth is the smallest in 20 years amid tight margins and El Niño uncertainty, and Conab’s numbers still differ materially from USDA’s (corn 9mmt higher, soybeans 4.38mmt lower).
🇨🇳🚢 USDA flagged flash sales of 330,000mt of soybeans to China and 283,450mt to unknown destinations for 2026/27. Bloomberg reports China bought another 20 cargoes of US beans late this week, so more flash sales are likely.
💰🔥 The Producer Price Index jumped 1.3% in September, its biggest monthly gain since March 2022, pushing annual wholesale inflation to 6.3%. Energy led the surge with gasoline up 20% and diesel up 21%, yet odds of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting fell to about 30%.
🌵🗺️ Warm, dry weather worsened drought in southern Illinois, southern Indiana, southern Missouri, and northern Kentucky last week. The upside is ideal harvest conditions, helping farmers catch up on corn and soybean progress that’s lagging the five-year average.
🌽⛽ Ethanol output rose 1.1% to 1.065 million barrels per day, while stocks climbed to 23.94 million barrels. Margins strengthened across the Corn Belt, ranging from 5 to 50 cents per gallon positive per Reuters data.
Inflation Continues to Run HOT - Surprising Impact on Corn Prices
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📈 Inflation heated up in September, with CPI rising 0.6% month over month and annual inflation hitting 3.7%, topping expectations of 3.6% as gasoline surged 9.1% and fuel oil soared 74% y/y. Ground beef was a rare bright spot, falling 1.3% to $7.06/lb, though markets still see only a 29% chance of a Fed hike on October 28th.
🇨🇳 China’s soybean crushing capacity has grown nearly 20% over the past decade, but operating rates stuck between 55% and 70% are squeezing profits as daily capacity heads past 520,000mt. With an aging population, shifting protein habits, and low-protein feed gaining ground, China’s soymeal demand may be peaking, raising questions about future US soybean purchases.
🚢 USDA confirmed a flash sale Wednesday of 470,000mt (17 million bushels) of soybeans to China for 2026/2027 delivery. It’s the first US soybean flash sale to China since the September 24 Trump-Xi meeting in Washington.
🌧️ Rain is returning to the Corn Belt after a mostly dry week, with radar active this morning across parts of the western Corn Belt and Plains. Totals look light, though, with few areas topping 1.5" over the next 5 days, while TX, OK, and southern MO see the heaviest amounts.
🫘 Soybeans fell for a third straight session Wednesday, with Nov26 down nearly 7 cents to around $12.77 on mostly favorable weather forecasts. Dec26 corn slipped 2 cents to about $4.81, while wheat posted modest gains on Black Sea shipping concerns.
⚡ Russia accused Ukraine of drone strikes on two western Russian refineries with roughly 540,000 barrels per day of capacity, which Ukraine denied, citing Trump’s proposed energy truce. Meanwhile, Russian strikes reportedly knocked out power and water in Kyiv, and US diesel sits near record highs at $6.30/gal, up 72% y/y.
China Says it Doesn't Need US Corn - Is the White House "Fact Sheet" Wrong??
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🇨🇳 China Corn Imports: Despite recent tariff relief, US corn is still priced out of China, with imports projected to fall to 3.5mmt and the US supplying just 900,000mt vs. 1.2mmt each from Brazil and Argentina. 📉 Negative import margins and a 5–8mmt jump in China’s domestic production limit upside, though Reuters reports China bought 8–10 cargoes of US soybeans, the first since the Sept 24th Trump/Xi meeting. 🫘
🚜 Harvest Progress: Corn harvest reached 33% and soybeans 46%, both behind the five-year average and marking the slowest weekly pace since 2019. 🌧️ Iowa and Nebraska are furthest behind, while winter wheat planting hit 51% in its slowest week on record. 🌾
🇧🇷 Sorghum Competition: Brazil has more than doubled sorghum output to ~6mmt and shipped its first-ever cargo to China in August, with up to 2.4mmt expected to ship by the end of October. ⚠️ Meanwhile, US sorghum production is forecast to drop 33%, and exports to China have plunged from over $2 billion a decade ago to just $86 million in 2025. 📦
📊 Futures Recap: Dec26 corn held steady near $4.83/bu while Nov26 soybeans slipped 4¢ to ~$12.84/bu, both pressured by advancing harvest. 🌾 Wheat closed lower on technical selling and spillover weakness, with traders shrugging off new Black Sea vessel attacks. ⚓
🚢 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections fell short of expectations at 1.1mmt, though still 27% ahead of last year, with China taking about 59% of the week’s total. 🌽 Corn came in strong at 1.3mmt (+5.3% YTD), while wheat lagged at 304,660mt, down 35% from last year. 📉
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🌊 Super El Niño Watch: US forecasters put the odds at 83% that the developing El Niño ranks among the strongest on record, raising concerns about heat, drought, and excess rain in major growing regions. In Brazil, dryness in the Center-West and north could delay soybean planting and hurt the second-crop corn that follows.
🇷🇺 Russian Grain Cuts: IKAR lowered Russia’s total grain crop to 137mmt and wheat to 88mmt, while trimming wheat exports to 42mmt from 43.5mmt. Most shipments are being rerouted to Baltic terminals, since Black Sea and Azov ports remain closed due to the war.
📈 Markets Recap: Dec26 corn gained about 3 cents to $4.83 on short-covering, while Nov26 soybeans slipped about 4 cents to $12.88 on expectations of a record US crop. Chicago wheat edged higher and KC wheat ticked lower as traders watched Black Sea shipping disruptions.
🇨🇳 China Soybean Outlook: China’s Ag Ministry cut its soybean production estimate 2.8% to 20.36mmt and slashed stocks 25% to 1.75mmt. China is projected to import 115mmt this year, yet USDA hasn’t reported a flash sale to China since September 24th.
⚡ Energy Ceasefire Doubts: President Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, but Zelenskyy said he learned of it through the media, and Russia struck an energy facility Monday. WTI crude is trading near $92/bbl, and national diesel averages $6.28, down from the record $6.53 set September 21st.
Corn Prices COLLAPSE on USDA Data - What Do Matt and Joe Think?
🌽 USDA shocked the trade Friday, raising the 2026 US corn yield to 181.2bpa, up from 178.5bpa last month and well above the 177.7bpa trade guess. 📊 Combined with higher beginning stocks, total corn supply jumped a whopping 407mil bushels, only partially offset by a 125mil bushel bump in demand.
📉 Corn futures fell sharply Friday after the “super bearish” USDA report, with Dec26 dropping more than 20 cents to its lowest close since mid-August. 🫘 Nov26 soybeans bucked the trend to gain more than 4 cents, while Dec26 SRW wheat lost more than 12 cents.
💰 The funds were net sellers of 51k corn and 7k SRW wheat contracts during the week ending October 5th, while buying 12k contracts of soybeans. 🔻 Private estimates show they sold another 63k corn, 17k soybean, and 8k SRW wheat contracts on Friday following the USDA report.
☀️ The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry over the weekend, likely allowing harvest to continue or accelerate across the region. 🌀 Rains from Hurricane Isaias soaked the Gulf Coast and mid-south, with Corn Belt rains returning midweek ahead of today’s 3pm CST Crop Progress report.
🇧🇷 Brazilian soybean planting is moving at a record pace, reaching 19.77% complete vs. 12.86% last year and 11.55% on average, per Patria AgroNegocios. 🌧️ Early, satisfactory rains are aiding progress as USDA projects a record 186mmt crop on a record 123.5mil acres.
One Iowa Farm Had 42 Lines of Credit. Debt Crisis Incoming??
💰 USDA pegs inflation-adjusted US farm debt at a record $605+ billion, roughly double the 2000 level. 🔍 But officials warn the true number may be even higher, with one economist estimating vendor and nontraditional financing could be 2–3x larger than USDA’s $45 billion figure.
🌽 Grain futures were choppy Thursday, with Dec corn settling near $5.00 and Nov soybeans dropping 10 cents to around $12.87. 📊 Traders are squaring up ahead of today’s Crop Production and WASDE report while keeping an eye on harvest yields.
📋 USDA releases its October WASDE at 11am CST, and the trade expects corn yield and production to be trimmed. 🤔 There’s a 9-bushel gap between the highest and lowest corn yield guesses, while soybean yield is expected to hold steady.
🛢️ Trump said the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms, a day after strike talk sent Brent crude up more than 4% to above $104. ⛽ Gas is averaging $4.36 a gallon, up about 40% from a year ago, as public support for the war slips to just 31%.
🌧️ Heavy rain of 3 to 6+ inches brought major drought relief to the central and southern Plains, while the core Corn Belt remains drought-free. ☀️ Dry, warm weather through October 12 should fuel a strong harvest push before wetter conditions return.
🚢 Corn export sales jumped to 769,500mt, up 44% week over week, with Mexico and Colombia leading the way. 🌾 Wheat sales were also strong at 451,600mt, while soybean sales slowed 47% despite China buying 382,900mt.
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🌧️ More Rain for the Corn Belt: Tropical Storm Isaias could bring 1–4 inches of rain to parts of the southeastern Corn Belt, potentially delaying harvest and increasing flooding concerns in saturated areas. 🌽🌧️ The rest of the Corn Belt should remain mostly dry, offering a better harvest window.
📊 USDA Report Friday: Traders expect USDA to lower corn yield and production estimates, while soybean yield and production are expected to remain unchanged. 🌽 Corn ending stocks are expected to rise, while soybean stocks decline slightly and wheat stocks edge higher.
⛽ Ethanol Production Rebounds: U.S. ethanol output jumped 4.6% last week to 1.05M barrels/day, while stocks fell 1% to 23.74M barrels. 📈 Margins remain strong across the Corn Belt, ranging from breakeven to +40¢/gal.
🏠 Mortgage Rates Hit 3-Year High: The 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 7.49%, marking seven straight weeks of increases. 📉 Mortgage applications fell 4.2%, with overall volume now nearly 50% below January levels.
🏦 Fed Keeps Rate Hike on the Table: Fed officials still see another rate hike as likely before year-end, although the timing is uncertain. 📈 Inflation remains above the 2% target, while rising energy costs and supply constraints could complicate the Fed’s efforts to bring inflation lower.
Soybeans Rally on Harvest Delays + Farmer Sentiment Fades
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🌱 Soybeans: Harvest delays fueled a grain market rally, with Nov26 soybeans jumping 22¢ to $13.03. Corn gained 11¢ to $5.08, while wheat also finished higher. 🌧️
📉 Farmer Sentiment: Purdue’s Ag Economy Barometer fell to 123 as concerns over input costs and U.S. soybean competitiveness weighed on sentiment. A record 52% cited input costs as their top concern. 🇧🇷
⛽ Fuel Costs: The Trump administration is considering suspending the 18.4¢/gal federal gas tax, but the move would require congressional approval and could cost billions in lost revenue. 🚗
🇨🇳 China Demand: Trump said China will double its purchases of U.S. agricultural products, but it remains unclear whether the purchases would be in addition to existing commitments. China has fulfilled about 42% of its 2026 U.S. soybean commitment so far.
🐄 Cattle: Additional U.S. beef imports have fallen well short of expectations, with an estimated 8%–22% of the September allocation entering the country. Strong consumer demand and a rally in equities helped send live cattle up nearly $4 to $5.30 and feeders up $6.65 to $9.58.
Harvest Pace Slips Below the Five-Year Average + Trump Expands Access to Off-Road Diesel
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🌽 U.S. Harvest Falling Behind: Corn harvest is 23% complete and soybeans 25%, both well below their five-year averages. Iowa and Nebraska are seeing the biggest delays, while winter wheat planting at 36% is also far behind average. 🌾
🇧🇷 Brazil Election Boosts Markets: Flavio Bolsonaro narrowly edged Lula in the first round, setting up a runoff later this month. Brazilian stocks jumped more than 8%, while the real posted its strongest one-day gain in four years. 📈
🌱 Brazil Soy Planting Lags: Soybean planting is 7.3% complete, slightly behind last year’s pace, while AgRural raised its production estimate to a record 182.7 MMT. 🇧🇷
🛢️ Middle East Oil Exports Rebound: Gulf oil exports returned to pre-war levels in September despite ongoing tanker attacks, though security risks could make the recovery difficult to sustain.
🚜 Red-Dyed Diesel Expanded: President Trump temporarily expanded access to tax-exempt off-road diesel for highway use through the end of 2026. Diesel prices remain elevated at $6.32/gallon, up 71% from a year ago. ⛽
🚢 Soybean Exports Stay Strong: U.S. soybean inspections totaled 1.1 MMT, up 45% from last year, with China accounting for about 66% of the week's shipments. Corn shipments fell 49% y/y. 🌎
📦 Flash Sales: USDA reported sales of 129,540 MT of corn to Mexico and 104,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/27 delivery.
🐄 Cargill Earnings Hit by Cattle Costs: Cargill’s Q1 net income fell to $927 million, pressured by record-high cattle costs and rising cocoa prices. Its oilseed business was a bright spot, posting record soybean and canola profits. 📉
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🌦️ Corn Belt Weather: Drier weather this week should help accelerate corn and soybean harvest after weeks of rain. However, concerns remain about yield and quality losses in parts of the western Corn Belt, including reports of soybeans and corn kernels sprouting. Below-normal precipitation could continue into mid-October.
📉 Grain Markets: Soybeans fell about 6¢ Friday to $12.78, their lowest close since late August, while corn dropped roughly 5¢ to $4.98. Favorable weather, bearish USDA data and China’s exclusion of U.S. soybeans from tariff relief continue to weigh on prices. Wheat was mostly unchanged near six-week lows.
⛽ Fuel Prices: The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from emergency reserves over four months, with much of the diesel expected to reach markets within 20 days. U.S. officials are also considering measures to bring down record-high diesel prices. Gasoline averaged $4.37/gal Sunday, while diesel averaged $6.34/gal.
📊 Fund Positioning: Money managers were net sellers of 23K corn, 19K soybean and 10K SRW wheat contracts last week. Despite the selling, funds remain heavily net long corn and soybeans, with positions near record levels.
🌽 Export Demand: USDA reported a flash sale of 218,600 MT of U.S. corn to Mexico, providing a boost to export demand.
👷 Jobs & Fed: U.S. employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below expectations, while wage growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2021. The softer labor market reduces pressure on the Fed to raise rates, with traders pricing in a 78% chance of no change and 22% chance of a quarter-point hike in October.
Iowa Drenched Again: When Will Harvest Finally Get Moving?
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🌧️ Weather: Heavy rain drenched Iowa and eastern Nebraska, with Omaha receiving nearly 5 inches and Lincoln more than 3 inches. ☀️ Dry weather is expected through the weekend and into next week, but flooding and saturated soils will continue delaying harvest.
🌵 Drought Monitor: Rain improved drought conditions across parts of the Upper Midwest and High Plains, while dryness worsened in Kentucky, southern Missouri, and southern Illinois. Oklahoma remains the hardest-hit state in the Southern Plains.
📊 Drought Impact: U.S. drought coverage stands at
🌽 Corn: 21%
🫘 Soybeans: 27%
🌾 Winter wheat: 57%
🌾 Spring wheat: 48%
🐄 Cattle: 57%
📉 Grain Markets: November soybeans fell 9¢ to $12.84/bu., their lowest close since late August, pressured by fund liquidation, export concerns, and expectations for a record-large crop. December corn edged 2¢ higher to around $5.02/bu., while wheat futures finished higher.
🚢 Export Sales: Soybean sales jumped 77% week over week to 1 MMT (38 million bushels), exceeding expectations, with China leading purchases. Corn sales fell 36% to 536,000 MT, while wheat sales rose 8% to 289,300 MT; both were near the lower end of expectations.
🇷🇺 Russian Grain Exports: Black Sea shipping disruptions continue limiting Russian grain exports. Alternative ports shipped just 1.3 MMT of grain and oilseeds from July through September, compared with roughly 12 MMT through major Black Sea ports. Higher transportation costs and infrastructure constraints are complicating efforts to reroute shipments, potentially adding pressure to global food prices.
🏦 Federal Reserve: Fed officials signaled that additional interest rate hikes may be needed to bring inflation back to 2%, although expectations for an October increase have eased. Persistent price pressures remain a concern despite softer-than-expected underlying inflation data for August.
USDA Scr#ws the Farmer AGAIN - "Finds" More Corn Bushels
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🌽 Corn futures tumbled Wednesday after USDA pegged September 1 stocks at 2.095 billion bushels, up 35% from a year ago and well above every trade guess. 📉 Dec26 corn plunged about 21 cents to $5.01, while soybean and wheat stocks both came in below expectations but still couldn't stop beans and wheat from slipping lower.
📊 USDA will now have to "solve" for that 2.095 billion bushel old crop corn carryout in the October 9th WASDE, after demand was overstated by roughly 232 million bushels. 🐄 Most of the cut will likely come from Feed and Residual Use, which could drop from 6.350 to as low as 6.118 billion bushels.
💵 Republicans are pushing to include roughly $11 billion in new direct farm aid in a proposed defense spending package. ⏳ Even if it passes, checks likely won't reach farmers until spring 2027, pushing total US farm payments this year to about $55 billion.
🌧️ More heavy rain is hitting eastern Iowa this morning, with another 1 to 3 inches possible and dozens of counties under flood warnings or flash flood watches. ☀️ Drier, sunnier weather is expected to return Friday and stick around into next week.
⛽ US ethanol production fell to a 34-week low at 1.007 million barrels per day, while stocks hit a 12-week low but remain a record for the week. 💰 Margins are still strong across the Corn Belt, ranging from breakeven to 40 cents per gallon positive.
🚢 Sovecon cut its Russian grain export forecast by nearly 10% to 44.7mmt, with wheat exports lowered 11% to 36.7mmt as Black Sea and Azov ports are expected to stay closed through year-end. 🇹🇷 Turkey is leading efforts to restore Black Sea grain trade, and Russia could quickly restart up to 80% of its terminal capacity if a ceasefire is reached.
🫘 USDA confirmed a flash sale of 105,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 📈 Accumulated soybean sales are now up 94% compared to the same point last year.
"Wars are Expensive" - Rising Interest Rates Squeeze Farm Margins
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📈 The 30-year Treasury yield just blew past 5.61%—its highest level since 2002! War-driven inflation fears, heavy government borrowing, and a hawkish Fed are all piling on, with markets pricing in roughly a 50% chance of another rate hike in October.
💬 Jim Iuorio breaks down the three forces pushing long-term rates higher—the AI boom pulling money out of bonds, fears that inflation is sticking around, and the massive cost of financing the war. He believes the Fed is hiking to bring long-end yields down, but so far it hasn't worked.
🌧️ Iowa is getting soaked with 2–4 inches of rain through Thursday, and 64 counties are under a flash flood watch! The heaviest totals are expected along and south of I-80, further delaying harvest and raising concerns about yield and quality losses.
📊 USDA's Quarterly Grain Stocks report drops today, with corn stocks expected at 1.92 billion bushels—up 24% from last year. Soybean stocks are seen nearly flat at 324 million bushels, while wheat stocks are projected to fall 12%.
🌱 Soybeans bounced back Tuesday as Nov26 futures gained nearly 10 cents to close near $12.98 on bargain buying after Monday's sell-off. Dec26 corn slipped a penny to $5.22 ahead of the USDA report, while wheat futures were mixed.
🇨🇳 China is cutting tariffs on US wheat, corn, and sorghum—but don't expect a buying spree just yet. High US prices and a sluggish Chinese economy are holding back demand, and soybean growers are frustrated that beans were left off the list entirely.
Will Iowa Farmers EVER Harvest This Year's Crop?? + China Soybean Letdown
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🌱 Soybean futures plunged Monday, with Nov26 beans falling nearly 31 cents to close around $12.88/bu after US soybeans were left out of the US-China tariff reduction deal. 📉 Corn slipped ~5 cents to $5.23/bu on spillover weakness and a firmer dollar, while wheat also finished lower despite both grains getting tariff relief.
🇨🇳 The American Soybean Association voiced disappointment that soybeans remain under an extra 10% tariff, which limits access for private Chinese buyers and leaves purchases dominated by state-owned firms. 🤝 ASA still expects China to meet its 25mmt annual purchase commitment through 2028 and hopes two more Trump-Xi meetings bring further relief.
🌧️ Another significant storm system is set to soak the Corn Belt through Wednesday, with the heaviest rain expected in southern Minnesota, western Wisconsin, eastern Nebraska, and much of Iowa. ⚠️ Localized flooding is possible on already saturated fields, further delaying harvest.
🚜 US corn harvest reached 18% and soybeans 17% complete, both in line with the five-year average but short of the 20% analysts expected. 🐢 Iowa is lagging badly at just 5% corn and 3% soybeans harvested, while winter wheat planting sits at 27% vs. the 34% average.
🇧🇷 Brazil's soybean planting hit 3.4% complete, slightly ahead of last year's pace, while first-crop corn reached 34% planted. 🌦️ Wet weather in the forecast could slow fieldwork, with USDA projecting Brazil's crops at 186mmt soybeans and 139mmt corn.
🚢 Soybean export inspections topped expectations at 1.2mmt, up 50% week-over-week and a whopping 89% year-over-year, with China taking 70% of the volume. 📦 Corn inspections came in strong at 1.6mmt, while wheat shipments reached 310,635mt but were down 64% from last year.
Soybeans EXCLUDED from China Tariff-Exempt List - Prices Drop
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🤝 The US and China agreed to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of nonsensitive goods, including US ag exports, and extended their trade truce until mid-January. 🌐 The two sides also launched an AI dialogue and agreed no country should impose tolls on international waterways, an apparent jab at Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz.
🇨🇳 China released a list of 1,619 US products exempt from additional country-specific tariffs, including wheat, corn, rice, sorghum, and meats. 🫘 Soybeans were left off the list and slipped overnight, even though China has been buying US beans aggressively.
🌽 Dec corn gained about a penny Friday to close near $5.28 after last week's selloff over the lack of detail on Chinese purchases. 📈 Nov soybeans rose 2 cents to $13.19, while wheat slipped on hopes for easing Black Sea shipping disruptions.
🌧️ Des Moines has received nearly 13 inches of rain this month, about 10 inches above normal, and needs just under 2 more to tie the 1914 September record. ☔ Another round of rain arrives Tuesday, but the 8-14 day outlook turns drier across Iowa.
💰 Western Corn Belt soybean processors are paying premiums of 60 to 85 cents for immediate delivery as rain delays harvest, with Cargill's Sioux City plant offering up to $1 over November futures. 🏭 It's a big opportunity for farmers with old-crop or early-harvested beans, as USDA projects a record 2.78 billion bushels crushed this year.
📊 Funds sold 10k corn contracts last week but still hold their third-largest net long on record at 404k. 🚀 They bought 24k soybean contracts, pushing their net long to a record 265k.
🛢️ Trump rejected a phased seven-day deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran says it won't soften its terms. ⚠️ Tensions are spreading as Iran-backed Houthis launch drones and a missile toward Saudi Arabia, with reports Trump could resume bombing after the midterms.
🐄 ICE operations in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have caused labor shortages at feedyards and packing plants, delaying shipments of thousands of cattle. 🥩 Several southwest Kansas plants halted operations last week, which could tighten beef supplies and push already-high prices even higher.
Corn Prices TANK Following "No News" Trump/Xi Meeting
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🤝 US-China Talks: Xi Jinping and President Trump met in Washington, but the meeting produced no major breakthroughs on tariffs, AI, or ag trade. Hopes for China dropping its 10% retaliatory soybean tariff or new details on its $17 billion ag purchase commitment went unmet, and grains are trading lower. 📉
🚢 Black Sea Shipping: Zelenskiy says India, Turkey, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern nations are joining talks to reopen Black Sea shipping, which has been near a standstill since July. Wheat futures slipped on the news as top buyers like Egypt and Indonesia shift purchases to France, Argentina, and Australia. 🌾
🌧️ Drought Monitor: Heavy rains improved drought conditions across much of the northern Corn Belt, though southern Missouri got drier. The High Plains saw some relief too, but winter wheat areas remain 58% in drought. 🏜️
📦 Export Sales: Soybean sales disappointed at just 21 million bushels, down 66% from the prior week, with China as the top buyer. Corn came in at 33 million bushels and wheat at 10 million, both below expectations. 📊
🇨🇳 Flash Sale: USDA confirmed a flash sale of 120,000mt of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery. It's a small but welcome sign of continued Chinese buying. 🫘
⛽ Diesel Exports: The Trump administration is exploring limits on diesel exports to bring down prices, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright sounding out refiners. The industry is pushing back hard, warning restrictions could force refiners to cut production of all fuels. 🏭
🛢️ US-Iran & Hormuz: The US and Iran are weighing a phased deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Iran's conditions are met. News of the potential agreement pushed WTI crude down about 1.7% to around $93 per barrel. 💰
🤝 The US and China agreed to extend their trade-war truce by two months to January 10, giving both sides more time to reach a broader deal. 🇨🇳 Treasury Secretary Bessent said this week's Trump-Xi meeting could bring announcements on ag purchases, along with a plan to set aside $30 billion each in US and Chinese exports for tariff relief.
🌽 Grain and oilseed prices slipped ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi summit, with Dec26 corn dropping nearly 8 cents and Dec26 HRW wheat hitting its lowest trade since late August. 🫘 China is likely more than halfway to its 25 million-ton US soybean pledge, but its separate $17 billion ag purchase commitment has largely stalled.
⛽ The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a 90-day ban on diesel exports as the national average hits $6.52 per gallon, up $2.83 from last year. ⚠️ Energy Secretary Chris Wright denied the plan, and critics warn a ban could force refiners to cut output and drive fuel prices even higher.
🚜 Some farmers are locking in diesel prices through year-end, with some expecting another $1 to $2 per gallon jump if the US-Iran war drags on. 💸 Higher fuel costs could also push fertilizer up another $100 to $200 per ton, prompting early spring fertilizer purchases.
🌾 Chicago wheat futures have surged 40% from June lows to a 3.5-year high as the Russia-Ukraine war brings Black Sea shipments to a near standstill. 🚢 Buyers are turning to Australia and Argentina, paying roughly 25% more than they did for Black Sea wheat.
💵 The US dollar climbed to its highest level since late July as markets bet on more Fed rate hikes. 📈 Money markets are pricing in a 55% chance of another quarter-point hike in October, with Brent crude back above $100 per barrel.
🏭 US ethanol production fell to a 20-week low of 1.028 million barrels per day, down 6.5% from the prior week. 📊 Stocks dipped to a 6-week low but remain a record for the week at 24.68 million barrels, while Corn Belt margins stay strong.
Trump Supports Diesel Export Ban + Western Corn Belt Harvest Delays
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🌽 Iowa's corn and soybean harvests are running well behind schedule, with just 4% of corn and 2% of soybeans harvested after persistent rain left farmers only two days suitable for fieldwork last week. 🌧️ The state averaged 3.6 inches of rain last week, and more is on the way, with the heaviest amounts forecast for western Iowa.
📉 Corn futures slipped about 6 cents to near $5.37 and soybeans fell about 3 cents to near $13.26 as traders awaited this week's Trump-Xi meeting and eyed drier forecasts that could speed up harvest. 🌾 Wheat also finished lower on hopes that a Russia-Ukraine truce could reopen Black Sea shipping.
🛢️ WTI crude fell 1.2% to $94.99 for its fifth straight daily decline, but fuel prices keep climbing, with gasoline at $4.48 and diesel hitting a record $6.53 per gallon. 🚫 President Trump voiced support for banning US diesel exports, though critics warn the move could disrupt supply chains and actually push pump prices higher.
🌱 A London-based think tank projects global biofuel production could jump roughly 70% by 2030, led by the US, Brazil, and Indonesia as countries raise blending mandates amid the energy crisis. 🌍 If all proposed mandates are implemented, feedstock production could require an additional 89 million acres, roughly the size of Germany.
📊 Kalshi has asked the CFTC for approval to offer leverage on its prediction-market event contracts in a bid to attract more institutional traders. ⚖️ Rival Polymarket is pursuing similar approval, while Kalshi plans to limit leveraged contracts to qualified self-clearing members if approved.
Corn Jumps on Possible China Interest + Diesel Export Ban and E15 in California
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🌽 Corn futures rallied Monday, with Dec26 gaining ~16¢ to close at $5.43/bu. The move was driven by hopes for stronger Chinese demand and rain slowing Corn Belt harvest.
🌱 Soybeans jumped ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting, with Nov26 up ~25¢ to $13.28/bu. Traders are betting the talks could lead China to drop its 10% tariff and let private buyers start purchasing again.
🌾 Wheat also closed higher as Russia and Ukraine traded drone strikes, cooling hopes for a de-escalation. US-China trade talks wrapped their second day Monday ahead of the big Trump-Xi sit-down.
🚜 Crop conditions held steady while harvest progress sped up nationwide. Corn crop rated 57% good/excellent (harvest 13% done) and soybeans held at 58% good/excellent (harvest 12% done), with winter wheat planting at 17%.
⛽ Diesel prices hit a record $6.51/gal, sparking calls from farm-state Republicans for an export ban. The White House says it's not considering restrictions yet, even as Ag Secretary Rollins hints at a fuel-cost relief plan soon.
🚗 California finally cleared the path for E15 sales after Gov. Newsom signed new legislation. The move could save drivers billions and add ~650 million gallons of annual ethanol demand in the state.
🚢 Russia is shifting grain exports to Baltic and Arctic ports as Black Sea shipping stays restricted. Exports were down 31% July-August y/y, even as USDA expects only a modest hit to Russia's overall grain trade.
📦 US corn and soybean export inspections came in strong last week, beating expectations and last year's pace. China made up 59% of corn inspections, while wheat shipments lagged, down 64% vs. the same week last year.
How Have SURGING Diesel Prices Impacted Corn Growers? (It's not Good)
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⛽ Diesel Prices – National average diesel hit a record $6.51/gal on Sunday, up 76% year-over-year, with off-road diesel nearing $6.00/gal in many areas. Fuel costs are adding $11/acre to corn and $7/acre to soybean budgets, and USDA Secretary Rollins hints at coming relief announcements. 💸
🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump-Xi Meeting – Trump and Xi meet in Washington Thursday to tackle AI, trade, Taiwan, and the Iran war, with ag trade a key focus. China has crossed the halfway mark on its 25mmt soybean commitment, and weekend talks between Bessent and Li Chenggang were called "very successful." 🤝
🌧️ Corn Belt Rainfall – Heavy rain soaked eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois over the weekend, with some spots topping 4 inches and flash-flooding concerns Sunday morning. Saturated fields could delay harvest, though a drier week is expected ahead. 🌽
📉 Grain Markets – Soybeans dropped ~16 cents Friday to $13.04, pressured by profit-taking, weaker crude, and advancing harvest, while corn slid 3 cents to $5.28. Wheat also finished lower as traders eye a possible Black Sea de-escalation and this week's Trump-Xi summit. 📊
💰 CFTC Fund Positioning – Managed money's corn net-long hit a fresh record at 414,460 contracts, edging out last week's mark by a single contract. Funds trimmed soybean longs by 16k (still 2nd-largest on record) and sold 9k SRW wheat contracts. 📈
🚢 Soybean Flash Sale – USDA confirmed a fresh flash sale of 111,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans to China for 2026/2027 delivery. It's another sign of steady, if incremental, progress toward China's purchase commitment. 🌱
🐄 Cattle on Feed – September 1 inventory rose 1% YOY to 11.16 million head, while August placements fell to a record-low 1.62 million and marketings hit a record-low 1.52 million. The report looks bullish on the surface, but shrinking marketings raise questions about the cattle pipeline down the road — though the market's real focus stays on Thursday's Santa Teresa port reopening for Mexican feeder cattle. 🥩
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🫘 Soybean meal ripped to a new contract high of $372.90 before settling at $368.70 as rain threatens to delay Corn Belt harvest just as crush plants scramble for beans. 📈 Corn and wheat both settled lower, with wheat pressured by hopes for a Russia-Ukraine deal that could ease Black Sea shipping.
⚔️ Trump is weighing whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran or pursue a diplomatic path, with a Tuesday meeting set with six Gulf nations to map out next steps. ⛽ Meanwhile diesel hit a record $6.45/gal and gasoline jumped to $4.47/gal, ramping up inflationary and political pressure.
📉 US corn export sales fell 47% week-over-week to 1mmt, with Mexico the top buyer. 🇨🇳 Soybean sales dropped 35% to 1.7mmt with China leading purchases, while wheat sales rose 68% to 325,900mt on demand from the Philippines.
🌧️ USDA's drought monitor showed improvement in parts of the Corn Belt and High Plains after heavy rain, with total drought coverage now at 25% vs. 37% a year ago. 🐄 Winter wheat (57%) and cattle (58%) remain the most drought-stressed categories.
🇲🇽 The Santa Teresa port will reopen to Mexican feeder cattle imports on September 24, becoming the second border crossing to resume after nearly two years of screwworm-related closures. 🐮 Imports will start slow at ~750 head/day, adding to the roughly 6,000 head already processed since Douglas, AZ reopened in August.
US Harvest Delays?? + Trump HATES the Fed Rate Hike
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🌧️ Heavy rain is soaking the Corn Belt again, with parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin bracing for up to 10 inches through the weekend. Harvest delays and flooding are expected as fieldwork stalls across Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
💰 The Fed hiked interest rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase in over three years. Energy prices from the US-Iran war and inflation at 3.4% are keeping pressure on for possibly another hike this year.
🌱 Soybeans ticked up ahead of US-China trade talks, with the Nov26 contract near $13.21 as traders eye stronger Chinese purchases. Corn slipped slightly to $5.34 on the Dec26 contract, while wheat finished modestly higher.
⛽ Russia looks set to extend its diesel export ban through October as Ukrainian drone strikes keep hammering refining capacity. US diesel prices hit a record $6.31/gallon as the global market feels the squeeze.
🌾 Black Sea attacks are forcing Russia to reroute wheat exports through pricier, less efficient Baltic and Far East channels. Despite the disruption, USDA still expects Russia to remain the world's top wheat exporter this year.
🏭 US ethanol production held steady at 1.099 million barrels per day, up 4.2% year-over-year. Stocks climbed to a 19-week high while margins across the Corn Belt stayed mostly positive.
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🌱 NOPA August Crush Data – US soybean crush hit an 11-month low of 205.456 million bushels, down 5.2% from July, but still an all-time record for August. Soybean oil stocks tumbled to their lowest since November 2024 at 1.201 billion pounds, missing trade estimates. 📉
📈 Grains Rally – Soybeans surged nearly 15 cents to $13.19/bushel as the smaller-than-expected crush lit a fire under meal futures, with corn and wheat riding the spillover higher. 🌽🌾 Wheat also got a boost from hopes of Black Sea de-escalation.
⛽ Diesel Export Ban Talk – Senate Majority Leader John Thune floated banning diesel exports as US prices hit a record $6.27/gallon, though the Trump administration hasn't signed on. 🚛 Critics doubt a ban would meaningfully lower prices, and some lawmakers are pushing a federal diesel tax suspension instead.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Tariff Talks – The US and China are negotiating tariff cuts on ~$30 billion in trade, including agricultural goods, just a week before Xi's visit to meet President Trump. 🤝 Lower tariffs could spark fresh Chinese soybean buying, a welcome boost as US crushers face tight Q4 supplies.
🌧️ Canadian Wheat Harvest Delays – Persistent rain has stalled what was shaping up to be a record Canadian wheat crop, with Saskatchewan only 27% harvested (vs. a 58% average) and Alberta at 21% (vs. 44%). ❄️ No freeze is expected until late November, but every wet day raises the risk of quality losses.
💹 Treasury Yields Spike – The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% for the first time since 2007, driven by surging oil prices and inflation fears tied to Middle East tensions. 🏦 AI-fueled corporate borrowing and rising government debt are adding extra upward pressure ahead of the Fed's rate decision.
BOOMING Soybean Demand: New Wisc Crush Plant + China Keeps Buying
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🌱 CHS Announces Major Wisconsin Soybean Plant: CHS is building a ~$700 million soybean processing facility near Evansville, WI, capable of crushing 80 million bushels annually and boosting the company's total capacity by more than two-thirds. 🏗️ Set to open in fall 2028, the plant would theoretically process ~66% of Wisconsin's entire soybean crop.
🇨🇳 China Passes Halfway Mark on Soybean Purchases: China booked at least 1mmt of US soybeans last week, pushing total marketing-year purchases to roughly 13mmt against its 25mmt annual commitment through 2028. 🤝 The milestone lands just ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting in Washington next week, with hopes the buying pace keeps fueling the soybean rally.
🌾 Wheat Slides on Black Sea De-Escalation Signs: Chicago wheat fell 3 cents to $7.22/bu and KC wheat dropped 6 cents to $7.93/bu after Trump announced Ukraine and Russia agreed to halt energy infrastructure attacks. 📈 Soybeans and corn moved higher instead, climbing 8 and 3 cents, respectively, on harvest delay concerns and rising crude prices.
🚂 Rail Fuel Surcharges Spike 153%: Average rail fuel surcharges jumped to 48 cents per car-mile, now eating up 11% of total transport costs for corn and soybeans, more than double last year. ⛽ Soaring diesel prices ($6.23/gal national average) are driving the increase, with costs ultimately trickling down to farmers via weaker basis.
🌽 Corn Conditions Tick Up, Harvest Begins: Corn ratings improved slightly to 57% good-to-excellent while harvest hit 8% complete, in line with the five-year average. 🫘 Soybean conditions held steady at 58% good-to-excellent, with harvest just getting started at 6% complete.
🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting Kicks Off: Brazilian soybean planting reached 0.4% complete, running ahead of last year's pace despite excessive moisture slowing progress in some regions. 🌽 First-crop corn planting also advanced to 22% complete, well ahead of both last week and last year.
🚢 Export Inspections Mixed Last Week: Corn shipments slipped 9% week-over-week to 1.5mmt, while soybean shipments jumped 45% to 672,759mt with China making up about 49% of inspections. 📦 Wheat shipments rose 5.9% to 456,720mt but remained well below year-ago levels.
Funds are Record-Long Grains, But Rake Hikes are Coming
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🌽 USDA cut its national corn yield to 178.5 bpa (from 180.7) and production to 15.8 billion bushels, close to expectations. 📉 Even so, it's still the second-largest corn crop on record, while corn ending stocks fell to 1.567 billion bushels (stocks-to-use below 10%) and global stocks hit a 12-year low; soybean yield ticked up to 52.8 bpa.
🔥 August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, right in line with expectations, driven largely by a 3.9% jump in gasoline prices. 📈 Traders now see a nearly 90% chance of a Fed rate hike this week, up sharply from roughly 70% before the report.
💰 Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed funds net buying 13k corn and 22k soybean contracts, pushing both net longs to record highs (414k corn, 257k soybeans). 📊 Funds sold 10k SRW wheat contracts, but the combined corn/soybean/wheat fund net long hit a record 696k contracts.
🎲 Kalshi is eyeing an expansion into agricultural perpetual futures, aiming to give farmers and traders a new way to gain leveraged exposure to commodity prices. ⛽ The company is also pursuing an oil-linked perpetual tied to WTI crude, with contracts trading 23 hours a day, five days a week.
🌎 Corn export sales came in at 1.9mmt for the new marketing year, beating expectations with Mexico as the top buyer, while soybean sales jumped 35% week-over-week to 2.6mmt led by China. 🌾 Wheat sales hit a marketing-year low of 194,200mt, down 38% from the prior week, with the Philippines as the top buyer.
Soybeans Hit 32-Month High + $6 Natl Avg Diesel and Inflation
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🌱 Soybeans surge on China demand — Nov26 futures jumped nearly 23¢ to close near $13.32/bu after China snapped up ~1mmt of US soybeans this week. The buying comes just two weeks ahead of the expected Xi-Trump meeting in Washington 🇺🇸🇨🇳.
📊 USDA WASDE Day — Traders are bracing for today's 11am CST Crop Production report, with a notable cut to corn yield expected and only modest reductions to soybeans. Corn ending stocks are projected to fall sharply while wheat stocks edge higher, both domestically and globally 🌽🌾.
🛢️ Crude oil rockets higher — Brent surged 6.3% to top $107/bbl and WTI jumped 6.7% above $102/bbl, both hitting highs not seen since mid-May, as Middle East attacks disrupted export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Trump warned the US-Iran conflict could drag past the midterms, while gas prices climbed to $4.28/gal ⛽🔥.
📈 Inflation heats up — August PPI rose 0.4% m/m and 5.4% y/y, driven largely by a 4.2% jump in energy prices. Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike, with the CPI report due out this morning 💵📉.
⛽ Ethanol update — Weekly production slipped 1% to 1.1M barrels/day, even as stocks climbed to a seasonal high of 25.19M barrels. Corn Belt margins strengthened, ranging from 5¢ negative to 40¢ positive 🌽🏭.
🚢 Flash sales to China — USDA confirmed 272,000mt of soybeans sold to China and 206,500mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/2027 delivery. Check the China soybean purchase tracker below for the full picture 🇨🇳📦.
🌦️ Drought & weather watch — Rain eased drought in parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, while dry heat worsened conditions across Illinois, Missouri and Oklahoma. NOAA confirmed summer 2026 was the hottest on record for the US, with August alone averaging a record 75.6°F 🌡️🌵.
🥇 Kalshi breaks new ground — The prediction platform launched gold and silver perpetual futures after CFTC approval — the agency's first nod for a non-crypto perpetual. Traditional exchanges like CME are pushing back hard against the move 🥈⚖️.
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🛢️ Oil Surges on US-Iran Tensions—Brent crude jumped 3.4% to top $100/barrel (highest since late May), while WTI climbed 3.3% to over $96. Pain at the pump continues as gas hits $4.22/gallon and diesel sets a record $5.94/gallon, squeezing consumers and supply chains alike! ⛽📈
🌾 Wheat Tumbles Despite War Disruptions—Chicago wheat fell ~18¢ to $7.29/bushel, and KC wheat dropped ~13¢ to $8.06, even as Russia-Ukraine strikes choke off Black Sea shipments. Hopes for resumed US-mediated peace talks seem to be capping the rally. 🕊️📉
🌽 Corn & Soybeans Slide Ahead of USDA Report—Corn eased ~6¢ to $5.28/bushel, and soybeans lost ~7¢ to $13.10 as traders position for Friday's big WASDE release. 📊⏳
📅 All Eyes on Friday's WASDE Report—Traders expect a notable cut to corn yield/production and a smaller trim to soybeans, with US corn stocks seen falling sharply. Globally, the story looks similar: corn stocks down big, soybeans down modestly, and wheat ticking higher. 🔍🌍
🇷🇺 Sovecon Slashes Russian Wheat Export Forecast—The group now sees 2026/27 wheat exports at 41.4mmt (-7.2%) and total grain exports at 49.4mmt (-8.2%) as Black Sea AND Sea of Azov shipments get disrupted. Sovecon warns this could hit markets even harder than the 2022 crisis, since both major exporters are now blocked. ⚠️🚢
🌍 New Suppliers Step Up as Ukraine Struggles—Argentina's corn exports could hit a record 10mmt this Aug-Sept (vs. the usual 3mmt!), while the US is filling Europe's corn gap, supplying 40%+ of EU imports in July-August. Drought-hit EU corn imports are set to jump to 25mmt as Ukrainian supply lines stay squeezed. 🇦🇷🇺🇸🇪🇺
🇲🇽🇨🇳 Fresh Flash Sales Hit the Tape—USDA confirmed 182,880mt of corn sold to Mexico, plus 340,000mt of soybeans to China and 100,000mt to unknown destinations, all for the 2026/27 marketing year. Strong demand signals even as markets digest bearish price action elsewhere! 🚢💰
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Was Pro Farmer WRONG? Everybody Else Has a Higher Corn Yield Estimate
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🌽 StoneX Crop Estimates: StoneX trimmed its corn yield forecast to 182.9 bpa but raised production to 16.207 billion bushels on higher acreage. Soybean yield held at 53 bpa while production climbed to 4.547 billion bushels—all eyes now turn to Friday's USDA WASDE report. 📊
🌾 Crop Conditions & Harvest: Corn conditions slipped slightly to 56% good-to-excellent as harvest kicked off at 5% complete nationally. 🚜 Soybeans held steady at 58% g/e, spring wheat harvest raced to 86% done, and winter wheat planting is just getting started at 2%.
📈 Wheat Futures Surge: Wheat futures jumped Tuesday as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal faded, with Chicago wheat up 13¢ to $7.47/bu and KC wheat up 17¢ to $8.19/bu. ⚔️ Corn slipped to $5.34/bu while soybeans gained to $13.16/bu ahead of Friday's big report.
🤖 AI on the Farm: About 17% of farmers worldwide are now using generative AI, making it one of ag's fastest-growing technologies. 🧑🌾 US farmers lead the charge, leaning on AI for everything from agronomic advice to daily decision-making amid rising costs and weather uncertainty.
🚢 Export Inspections: Corn export inspections blew past expectations at 1.7mmt, up 11% week-over-week and 15% year-over-year. 📦 Soybean shipments rose 49% from the prior week to 422,016mt (though down YoY), while wheat shipments slipped to 342,733mt with no Chinese purchases recorded.
🔶 Copper Hits Record Highs: LME copper broke above $14,600/mt this month, fueled by a rush of shipments into the US ahead of possible tariffs. ⚡ Long-term demand from AI data centers, EVs, and clean energy — plus supply worries from mining disruptions — keeps the bullish outlook intact.
Wheat Rallies on Failed Peace Talks + Funds RECORD Long Corn Market
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🌾 Wheat & Black Sea Conflict — Wheat futures jumped as weekend peace talks between US envoys, Putin, and Zelenskiy made little headway on ending the Black Sea conflict. Ukraine says it's open to compromise on grain and energy, but shipments remain far below normal seasonal pace.
⛽ Fuel Prices & Inflation — Diesel hit a record $5.90/gallon and gasoline climbed to $4.15/gallon as the US-Iran war keeps squeezing oil supplies, with WTI crude near $93/barrel. Rising fuel costs are fueling inflation fears ahead of Friday's CPI report, with markets watching for a possible Fed rate hike.
📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders — Money managers piled into corn, soybeans, and wheat last week, pushing net longs to some of the largest levels on record. Corn's combined futures-and-options position even hit a record net long, though futures-only data fell just short.
🇨🇳 China Soybean Squeeze — Chinese crushers face a tightening Q4 supply picture as Brazilian stocks dwindle and US tariffs keep American soybeans unprofitable. All eyes are on Xi Jinping's upcoming US visit for a possible tariff break, plus a fresh 9-million-bushel flash sale to unknown buyers.
🇫🇷 France Farm Aid—France rolled out $1.2 billion in relief for farmers battered by record heat, drought, and wildfires this summer. The agricultural hit is pushing the country to the edge of recession as a fifth heat wave looms.
🐺 Gray Wolf Delisting — The Trump administration is moving to strip gray wolves of endangered species protection to help ranchers guard cattle and bring down beef prices. New orders also target country-of-origin labeling, Packers and Stockyards enforcement, and easier local meat processing. 🥩
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🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures plunged as optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal raised hopes for improved Black Sea grain shipments. December Chicago wheat fell nearly 20¢, while KC wheat dropped about 19¢.
🌽 Corn: Corn followed wheat lower, with December futures slipping about 3¢ on spillover pressure.
🫘 Soybeans: Soybeans bucked the trend, gaining 6¢ on continued Chinese buying, higher crude oil prices, and concerns about hot, dry U.S. weather.
🇨🇳 China: USDA reported another flash soybean sale, with U.S. exporters selling 192,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year. New-crop soybean sales are now 104% above last year's pace.
📉 Exports: U.S. corn export demand was mixed. Old-crop sales posted large cancellations, while new-crop sales topped expectations but remain 31% below last year's pace. Wheat sales also came in below expectations.
🌡️ Drought: Dry weather continues to threaten the Corn Belt, with drought worsening in several areas. Current drought coverage stands at 28% for corn, 30% for soybeans, 59% for winter wheat, and 82% for spring wheat.
🚜 Farm income: USDA expects 2026 net farm income to fall 5.5% from last year after adjusting for inflation, but it should remain above the 20-year average.
🥩 Cattle: Tyson cut its earnings outlook for the second time in a month, projecting deeper beef losses of $625 million to $775 million as tight cattle supplies squeeze packer margins.
🏭 Beef packing: Tyson has closed several beef plants to cut costs, highlighting the financial pressure facing the packing industry amid historically tight cattle supplies.
🐔 Poultry: Tyson's poultry business is helping offset beef losses, although cautious consumer spending is beginning to pressure that segment as well.
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🇷🇺 Putin Signals Openness to Peace Deal – Putin said early this morning that several countries, including the US and China, are ready to support a peace agreement, though he stressed Russia and Ukraine must ultimately resolve it themselves. He also repeated prior warnings about potential attacks on airplanes in Russian airspace.
🌾 EU Scrambles to Keep Ukrainian Grain Moving – The EU is working with Ukraine and neighboring countries on alternative export routes as low water levels on the Danube complicate "solidarity lane" efforts, with Ukrainian grain exports down roughly 58% year-over-year in August. The bloc is also weighing extra financial support for farmers hit by this summer's heat and drought.
⛽ US Ethanol Production Dips but Stays Seasonally Strong – Weekly ethanol output slipped to 1.11 million barrels per day, down slightly week-over-week but up 3.7% versus last year, while stocks fell 1% week-over-week to 25.04 million barrels. Corn Belt margins weakened, ranging from 25 cents negative to 10 cents positive per Reuters data.
🌽 Arkansas Harvest Running Well Ahead of Schedule – Arkansas' soybean harvest sits at 4% complete, above the five-year average of 2%, while corn harvest is 42% done versus last year's 31% and the five-year average of 19%. Hot, dry conditions and early planting have sped things along, with corn harvest expected wrapped in two to three weeks.
🇨🇳 Another Soybean Flash Sale to China – USDA confirmed a fresh sale of 202,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for 2026/2027 delivery. See the China soybean purchase tracker below.
🥩 DOJ Widens Beef Antitrust Probe to Retailers – The investigation now covers eight major retailers, including Amazon, Costco, and Walmart, building on the probe Trump launched last November over alleged meatpacker collusion. Beef prices remain stubbornly high as the US cattle herd sits at its lowest level in over 70 years amid drought and rising input costs.
Most Bullish Position of ALL-TIME!? Big Traders LOVE the Corn Market
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🌾 Wheat futures rallied Tuesday, with Dec26 Chicago up ~9¢ to $7.83/bu and Dec26 KC up ~7¢ to $8.45/bu. The move came after Russia rejected a Black Sea attack moratorium, though it also suspended export duties through year-end.
🌽 Corn climbed too, with Dec26 gaining ~8¢ to settle at $5.46/bu on crop yield worries and wheat spillover strength. Funds may have posted a record net long position of 412k contracts — watch for CFTC confirmation Friday!
🫘 Soybeans stole the show, with Nov26 surging nearly 30¢ to $13.18/bu. EPA's reallocation news, continued Chinese buying, and hot/dry weather worries all fueled the rally.
🛢️ Oil prices spiked 5.2% as WTI settled at $90.22/barrel — its highest close since late July — after US airstrikes on Iranian targets reignited Middle East tensions. Diesel hit a 52-week high at $5.63/gallon, way up from $3.69 a year ago.
🔥 Extreme heat is threatening Corn Belt crops this week, with triple-digit temps risking grain fill and stalk quality issues. Purdue's Dan Quinn expects an early harvest with yields landing near average, not a bumper crop or a disaster.
📊 USDA unveiled a plan to modernize ag data collection, leaning on satellite imagery, geospatial tools, and AI to cut duplicate reporting for farmers. Secretary Brooke Rollins says the goal is timelier, more accurate data while protecting producer privacy.
😊 Farmer sentiment rose for a second straight month, with Purdue/CME's Ag Economy Barometer hitting 135 in August, the highest since December 2025. More farmers now expect to be better off financially next year than worse off, for the first time since June 2025.
🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans, with a fresh flash sale of 136,000mt (5 million bushels) for the 2026/2027 marketing year.
🚜 John Deere rolled out an AI assistant called JD in its Operations Center app to help farmers make real-time input decisions. It's free, won't sell farmer data, and rolls out more widely later this year.
BEANS IN THE TEENS: Soybeans Trade $13 on Weather, SRE Reallocations
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🌾 EPA Small Refinery Exemptions: EPA granted full exemptions to 18 refineries and partial exemptions to 11 out of 34 petitions, covering 1.76 billion RINs for 2025. 📈 The agency plans to reallocate 100% of those credits to larger refiners in 2026-2027, sending soybean oil futures sharply higher.
🌍 Black Sea Grain Talks: Turkey has finalized a plan for safe Black Sea grain shipments and is in talks with both Russia and Ukraine. 📉 The hope for resumed exports pushed wheat futures lower, even as Russian airstrikes continued hitting Odesa and Kyiv overnight.
🚢 Grain Export Inspections: US corn export inspections hit a record high for the week at 1.5mmt, up 13% from the prior week. 📊 Soybean shipments disappointed at just 250,801mt (-42% week-over-week), while wheat came in near the top of expectations.
🌱 Crop Conditions Update: Corn conditions held steady at 57% good-to-excellent, but soybeans slipped for a fourth straight week to 58%. ✅ Spring wheat harvest is running way ahead of schedule at 77% complete, nearly finished in South Dakota and Washington.
💰 Soybean Flash Sale: USDA confirmed a flash sale of 159,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇨🇳 Notably, China was absent from last week's export inspection totals entirely.
🐄 Ranchers First Initiative: USDA unveiled a new program to rebuild the US cow herd, including a heifer retention insurance endorsement and $500 million for meat processing capacity. 🏛️ The plan also adds federal beef purchases for schools and hospitals, plus faster disaster relief access for ranchers.
US Crop Problems + Black Sea Chaos = Grain Prices Going VERTICAL
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🌾 Wheat futures hit a 3+ year high Friday as Dec26 Chicago wheat jumped ~23¢ to $7.84/bu and KC wheat rose ~22¢ to $8.44/bu. Escalating Black Sea military tensions between Russia and Ukraine keep fueling the rally, with Turkey now trying to broker a shipping agreement between the two sides.
🌽 Corn futures also climbed, with Dec26 up 3¢ to $5.37/bu on tight US yield concerns and strong demand. Restricted Ukrainian exports are adding extra support to the market.
🌱 Soybeans joined the rally too, with Nov26 gaining 20¢ to close at $12.88/bu. Fresh flash sales to China and other buyers helped keep momentum going.
📊 CFTC's Commitment of Traders report showed big money managers piling into grains last week, buying 136k corn, 49k soybean, and 12k SRW wheat contracts. The corn net long position has surged to an estimated 379k contracts — rare, historically elevated territory for the fund community.
🛢️ The Trump administration struck a major oil deal with Venezuela, gaining US access to 17 oil fields with ~65 billion barrels of potential reserves. The deal could draw $100B in investment, though relief at the pump isn't expected anytime soon given infrastructure and political hurdles.
🥩 Trump also announced plans to let cattle producers process their own beef, aiming to loosen the Big Four meatpackers' grip on the industry. Critics note the move likely won't meaningfully shift the broader beef market and raises food-safety concerns tied to bypassing USDA inspection.
Global Wheat SHORTAGE Incoming?? Prices Hit Multi-Year Highs
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🌾 Wheat hits a three-year high as Black Sea exports nearly halt amid Russia-Ukraine strikes—Chicago wheat settled near $7.61/bu, KC wheat at $8.22/bu. It's on pace for the biggest monthly gain since Feb 2022, right when the war began.
⛽ Biofuels: The Trump admin is weighing nearly doubling small refinery exemptions (up to 1.8B gallons) to cut fuel prices before the midterms. Farm groups warn it could crush corn and soybean oil demand, though a 2027 biofuel quota bump may help offset it.
☔ Weather markets: Kalshi is partnering with The Weather Company to grow its weather prediction contracts, with volume up 500% YoY toward a $1.1B annualized pace. The bigger play may be farmers using these as a hedge against rainfall and temperature swings.
🇨🇳 China's crops: Extreme heat and flooding are hurting corn and soybean quality, likely boosting demand for imported corn and sorghum. Soybean imports probably won't get the same lift since China's domestic beans go to food, not feed.
🌵 Drought monitor: Corn Belt conditions held mostly steady, though Wisconsin and Minnesota worsened. Corn 27%, soybeans 28%, winter wheat 56%, spring wheat 80%, and cattle 58% are in some level of drought.
📉 Export sales: Corn sales crashed to a marketing-year low of just 31,200mt, down 87% week-over-week. Soybean sales dipped too, but wheat sales rose 2%, with Mexico leading purchases.