Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Gordon Kerr's Credit Compass: Navigating European Credit Markets

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines widening French government bond spreads and the potential for European Central Bank intervention, alongside a landmark provisional agreement on European securitisation reform and what it could mean for credit markets. Gordon also explores progress on Europe’s competitiveness agenda, highlights KBRA’s latest U.S. credit outlook, and assesses the key risks shaping market sentiment.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how political instability in France, growing scrutiny of artificial intelligence financing, and tentative signs of recovery in the UK are creating competing forces across European credit markets. He examines how these developments are shaping investor confidence, borrowing costs, and the availability of capital, and why economic fundamentals ultimately matter more than headlines.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how Europe is navigating a delicate balance between economic resilience and mounting external pressures, as a new European Union (EU)-China trade understanding, LVMH’s latest earnings, and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) updated outlook reveal both opportunities and vulnerabilities. Gordon explores Europe’s evolving competitiveness agenda, persistent inflation risks, and widening credit spreads—and what these developments could mean for European credit markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how political uncertainty is colliding with fiscal pressure across Europe, with France increasingly at the centre of investor attention. This episode examines France’s budget challenge, shifting European politics, and why rising Japanese yields could have unexpected consequences for European sovereign debt.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how Europe’s economic picture is becoming increasingly divided, with manufacturing showing signs of recovery even as inflation and cautious consumers weigh on retail activity. Gordon also examines the UK government’s emerging industrial and fiscal strategy, as well as new Office for National Statistics (ONS) productivity measures that reshape our understanding of Britain’s long-running productivity challenge.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores Europe’s push to improve competitiveness, deepen its capital markets, and strengthen energy security, while considering the political and implementation challenges that could slow progress. Gordon also looks at the Bank of England’s redesigned quantitative tightening (QT) programme, Germany’s regional election shock, and new KBRA research on transatlantic private credit and sovereign yield curves.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how persistent inflation, energy-market pressures, shifting EU-China trade policy, and deeper Canada-Europe ties are reshaping the outlook for European credit. Gordon also explores the topic of what stronger UK growth and changing rate expectations could mean for markets as autumn volatility begins to build.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the renewed pressure on European bond markets from inflation risks, improving growth, fiscal challenges, and political uncertainty, which reinforce the prospect of higher rates for longer. Gordon also discusses new European Central Bank research on both synthetic securitisation and the artificial intelligence investment boom, as both could reshape Europe’s markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, unpacks the key messages from Jackson Hole, Wyoming,[SP1]  examines what the latest euro-area inflation data could mean for the European Central Bank (ECB), and considers why the Bank of England may have more room to wait. We also look at the G20 discussions, rising geopolitical and trade risks, the resurgence of UK mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and what higher sovereign yields could mean for European credit markets in the weeks ahead.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how Germany’s economy is showing signs of life, but the recovery remains heavily dependent on exports and manufacturing. He examines the latest GDP data, improving business confidence, and why Germany’s pension reforms could have longer-term implications for European capital markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines three constraints reshaping European credit: drought and low river levels, evolving bank capital rules, and increasingly scarce power connections for data centres. He explores how each could affect costs, competition, financing, and investment across Europe.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how Europe's drought is exposing the vulnerability of its inland transport network, creating fresh risks for supply chains, manufacturing, and inflation. He also examines European leveraged credit and what another strong earnings season means for investors.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores wildfires, Europe’s accelerating electric vehicle (EV) transition, and what improving manufacturing data tells us about the region’s economic outlook. As Europe faces another summer of climate shocks, geopolitical uncertainty, and rising energy prices—Gordon comments on a credit story that is more resilient than the headlines suggest.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how higher oil and gas prices could affect inflation, margins, and European Central Bank (ECB) communication; what early corporate results reveal about sector strength; and why Andy Burnham’s early fiscal choices will matter more to markets than the political reset.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, investigates the renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which has complicated Europe’s inflation and interest-rate outlook just as investors prepare for Q2 earnings. Gordon also examines the views of major investment managers, the case for European credit, and the opportunities emerging from the region’s expanding capital-investment cycle.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines the sharp shift in Europe’s inflation narrative, from renewed energy-driven price concerns to a more disinflationary backdrop. The episode also looks at Europe’s tentative growth recovery, the UK’s political and fiscal uncertainty, and Germany’s reform-and-spending package as a potential source of medium-term growth support.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses Germany’s credit story as it shifts between labour-market pressure, rising insolvencies, Schuldschein stress, and a potentially important pension-reform proposal. The episode also explores defensive European Union (EU) trade measures, artificial intelligence (AI)-related debt issuance, and why European Central Bank (ECB) rate risk remains relevant for European credit investors.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses private credit defaults with KBRA Direct Lending Deals. Rachel McGovern and Eric Rosenthal join in a conversation with Gordon, highlighting the performance of European direct lending.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how a tentative Gulf peace deal could lower energy-price risks and support European credit markets, while still leaving uncertainty around oil flows, inflation, and supply-chain normalisation. Gordon also looks at soft European industrial production data and considers how UK political uncertainty, including a possible Andy Burnham path to prime minister, could affect the markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, speaks from Global ABS in Barcelona, where European securitisation markets are showing early signs of renewed momentum amid regulatory reform and growing placed issuance. Gordon also looks at why UK data continue to surprise to the upside, even as consumers remain cautious and fixed income markets navigate inflation, supply, and geopolitical uncertainty.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines the latest pressure points across European credit markets: eurozone inflation, manufacturing momentum, and the UK housing slowdown. Gordon debates whether inflation pressures are becoming more persistent, whether Europe’s manufacturing rebound is genuine, and how higher-for-longer rates are affecting UK households.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the UK’s newly concluded trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and what it could mean for exporters, financial services, and digital trade. He also unpacks the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest assessment of private credit risks in Europe and considers how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping asset management workflows without yet proving itself as a source of investment alpha.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines whether Europe’s productivity problem is more nuanced than the “US exceptionalism” narrative suggests, and what that means for credit markets, technology autonomy, and long-term investment. Gordon then turns to the UK’s growth challenge and the rise in long-dated sovereign yields, highlighting why fiscal credibility and funding costs remain central risks for European economies.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how Asia’s early response could act as a warning signal for prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz that could pressure Europe through energy prices, industrial margins, and inflation risks. He also reviews March industrial production data and reported Q1 STOXX Europe 600 earnings, highlighting a market split between optimism around artificial intelligence and private credit, as well as caution over weak revenues, tight spreads, and geopolitical risk.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores how geopolitical shocks and inflation are reshaping the European credit outlook, delaying recovery and raising stagflation risks. Gordon also examines the growing influence of Big Tech in credit markets as firms like Alphabet issue massive debt to fund artificial intelligence (AI), creating both opportunities and tensions for investors.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines what weaker surveys, tighter lending conditions, and cautious issuance mean for credit markets and central bank policy. Gordon also discusses how rising inflation expectations, softer consumer sentiment, and delayed business investment are shaping Europe’s uncertain growth outlook.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines why markets are focused on Britain, Italy, and France—as higher yields and limited fiscal flexibility raise new questions for European credit. Gordon also looks at the UK’s artificial intelligence (AI)-driven growth story, Germany’s fragile recovery, and what the energy shock continues to mean for issuers, spreads, and investor sentiment.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how the IMF views the Strait of Hormuz disruption as reshaping Europe’s macro-credit outlook through slower growth, energy sensitivity, and renewed inflation risk. Gordon also explores Hungary’s political shift, the ECB’s banking reform proposals, and what easing volatility, but higher yields, mean for European credit markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how European credit markets are navigating a complex mix of energy shocks, policy intervention, and rising refinancing risk. Gordon unpacks what Brent backwardation is signalling, how governments are responding, and why dispersion across credit is set to widen.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the European Central Bank’s (ECB) increasingly hawkish tone, the tug-of-war between inflation and growth expectations, and what recent data signals for rates. Gordon also assesses a potential UK consumer boost from auto loan compensation and improving housing activity. All-in higher yields are creating more attractive entry points for credit investors despite ongoing volatility.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses how energy prices and geopolitical tensions are impacting European economies and credit markets. Gordon provides a sharp look at the rising energy prices rippling through inflation, policy, and credit markets—and why this shock may play out differently from 2022.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions are reshaping expectations for European monetary policy and credit markets. He also explores EU capital markets integration, central bank signals, and what softer UK data means for spreads and issuance.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines how the recent conflict involving Iran has influenced energy markets and what that means for Europe’s economic and credit outlook. We discuss Europe’s exposure to oil and natural gas prices, the mixed signals coming from German economic data, and how credit markets have responded to rising uncertainty.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, unpacks the impact of the recent conflict in Iran, a UK nonbank lending scare, rising artificial intelligence (AI) disruption fears in software, and what widening spreads really signal. Beneath the headlines, the story may not be systemic stress—but growing dispersion.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines early signs of stabilisation in the European economy, including improving German growth data and renewed policy momentum. We also assess the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expanded liquidity framework and the recent return of investor flows to European markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines bank lending views via several recent surveys. Gordon also investigates recent large European bank results and whether their views differ.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines France’s budget outcome, shifting growth dynamics across the euro area, record-setting issuance, and what tight valuations mean for credit investors. The message is constructive—but with limited room for error as markets price in good news.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews the World Economic Forum (WEF) Davos 2026 conference. Gordon also explores the recent trade deal with India and some recent data that hints at positive economic signs for Europe seeping through the cracks.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines a number of new developments in Europe. Gordon explores recent trade tensions and geopolitical risks that remain in the fore, but notes that low defaults, easing rate expectations, and improving sentiment continue to support a positive European story.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines early signals from UK and European consumer data. Gordon also explores Europe’s progress on the long-awaited Mercosur trade agreement and its strategic importance, as well as how European Union defence spending is beginning to translate into real economic activity.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews Europe’s start to the year. As the region faces a year of development, a stable start to the data presents a positive backdrop, which Gordon outlines in his recent article in the Business Post (link: https://www.businesspost.ie/analysis-opinion/gordon-kerr-why-ai-defence-and-trade-hold-the-key-to-europes-growth-in-2026/).

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, reviews Europe’s standout year in credit markets—from record issuance to tight spreads—and explores the forces behind the strength. Gordon then outlines a ChatGPT synthesis of 60 industry outlooks to reveal the emerging consensus for 2026 and potential tail risks.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses two structural shifts facing Europe as 2026 approaches: Bulgaria’s entry into the euro area and the early stages of the Dutch pension transition. One adds institutional depth; the other may reshape flows, duration demand, and asset-allocation trends across the continent.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, examines rising fiscal and financial stability concerns across the UK and Europe, from the UK’s “buy now, pay later” budget to France’s tightening fiscal path. Gordon also discusses Bank of England and ECB [European Central Bank] research about the shifting risks in the private credit and insurance sectors.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores Europe’s latest insolvency reform, Italy’s “golden power” dispute, and expectations for the UK’s upcoming budget. Together, they illustrate how regulation, politics, and fiscal credibility continue to shape Europe’s evolving credit landscape—offering both progress and persistent friction.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, explores the powerful intersection of AI and energy—how data-centre expansion is reshaping electricity demand, the grid bottlenecks slowing Europe’s transition, and what that means for credit markets. He also discusses the UK economy, where policy uncertainty tests investor confidence ahead of the Budget.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, outlines the way AI is changing the economics of labour, productivity, and credit—fast. Gordon examines how that’s feeding into hiring freezes, pay restraint, and a surge in European private credit flows, and how that is impacting credit markets.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, discusses the recent growth data, the surprising country standouts, and what is behind the momentum. Gordon also explores how investment themes could help to support the nascent growth in the region.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, unpacks the signals behind the continent’s fragile recovery: what central banks are really saying, how European lenders are managing risk, and why cautious optimism may finally be warranted. Gordon explores what these crosscurrents mean for growth, credit, and investor sentiment across Europe and the UK.

In this episode of Credit Compass, Gordon Kerr, KBRA’s European Macro Strategist, dives into the interplay between energy markets and European corporate credit. We explore how unusually low oil costs and a contango futures curve are signalling more than just margin relief. Gordon then unpacks recent earnings surprises in Europe, with a focus on forward guidance and changing expectations.