Global Data Pod – Détails, épisodes et analyse

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the post-Liberation Day back-peddling that has led some to breathe a sigh of relief. Not us. A 10% universal tax is still a very large shock (7.5x the 2018-19 trade war) and the huge 145% tax (and rising) on China is prohibitive. You cannot stop trade between the world’s two largest economies and not expect pain everywhere. We maintain our call for a 60% likelihood of a US/global recession.

This podcast was recorded on 04/11/2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A dramatic shift from the Trump administration toward less business-friendly policies leads us to revise up our already above-consensus recession odds to 60%. Along with the magnitude, the design of US tariff policies is hard to make sense of. Tit-for-tat retaliatory policies are underway. Beyond the cyclical damage, the long-term harm to the US is a much larger concern. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 4 April 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nicolaie, Katie, Gbolahan and Steven debate exposures across EM Edge from policy actions taken by the Trump administration around FDI, trade and aid flows. In addition, they discuss an impending review of US membership to international organizations, which could encompass the World Bank and IMF, and how that could impact the EM Edge.

Speakers: Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research  Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research Gbolahan S Taiwo, EM, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on 26 February 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4910014-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4906578-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4910054-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4920549-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The cyclical momentum into year-end is losing some steam at the start of the year—how much so is debatable. Uncertainties around US policy are the key risks to the outlook. Looking through the range of Trump policy initiatives, the balance of risks looks to be tilting more negative—again, how much so is debatable. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The latest data show downside surprises to growth and upside surprises to inflation. However, with so much noise at the start of the year, it is hard to take too much signal and with fundamentals still solid, we are comfortable with the outlook for healthy global growth this quarter. The risk is more looking forward and how the flood of back-and-forth Trump policies is impacting business decision making.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 14 February 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how the global expansion remains on solid footing for now. According to this week’s January surveys, the firming in global industry late last year looks to have continued into 2025. However, US policy churn—including an unexpected trade war on its closest trading partners—has increased uncertainties that are likely to be a new headwind, particularly on business spending. US fiscal policies are limited by already elevated deficits, adding to concerns of sustainability.

This podcast was recorded on February 7, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Tariffs could lift global inflation this year, but business cycle dynamics are likely to play an important role in driving core inflation performance. Consistent with our forecast that the global economy turns into the new year generating above-trend growth, we anticipate that global core CPI (ex China and Türkiye) will rise at a 3%ar in 1H25, in line with its 2024 outcome. Alongside a firming in core goods inflation, services inflation looks set to continue but should be limited and divergent across countries. Our bias is for a larger Euro area inflation slide vis a vis the US and UK, while EM is likely to remain differentiated. Tariffs add to upside risk and will provide a further test of persistent inflation and psychology.

Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist

This podcast was recorded on February 05, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4795397-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4895168-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In a week of news regarding ongoing resilient growth and still-solid inflation, our key call of a Trump-lite policy outcome this year is being severely challenged with the confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Such an outturn would not only weigh more heavily on the global outlook but also undermine the US expansion given the centrality of the US’s most important trading partners. Amid a flurry of central bank meetings, we largely got what was expected.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Michael Hanson, senior US and Canadian economist, and Gabriel Lozano, Head of Mexico Economics, discuss their latest Research Note on the Trump administration’s threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. They explore the motivations, risks for retaliation, potential economic implications, and consequences for USMCA.

This podcast was recorded on January 28, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4894757-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

While absent of immediate trade war, the start of the Trump administration brought little clarity to the US policy path ahead, and we do not change our key calls. Against this backdrop, the global economy is humming along with news supporting our call for global industry to perk up in the coming months. Among the many central banks meeting next week, the Fed (hold) and ECB (-25bp) will be a reminder of the stark divergence between these two economies. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.