This interview with Angus Shillington explores why India is the most promising emerging market, why it has outperformed the S&P 500, and the country’s favorable demographics. We also discuss the risks & rewards of investing in China, how Chinese equities compare to Indian equities, and the booming semiconductor market. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 22, 2024. __ Follow Angus Shillington on Twitter: https://x.com/angusshillingto Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:18) Emerging Vs Developed Market Investing (01:19) GDP Vs Equity Performance (06:16) Risks & Rewards In Chinese Equities (10:14) Chinese Real Estate Market (11:54) Most Promising Emerging Market (18:28) How India's Market Improved (22:57) How India Companies Fund Themselves (24:29) India's Favorable Demographics (30:01) Best Performing Industries In India (33:09) India Inflation (35:31) India's Imports & Exports (36:50) Indian Vs Chinese Equity Valuations (45:58) Indian Investment Goals (49:00) Indian Vs Chinese Financial Sector (53:54) TSMC, NVIDIA, & The Semiconductor Market (01:10:01) Does ASML Have A Monopoly (01:12:26) Most & Least Favorable EMs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

This interview with Jim Bianco and Jeremy Schwartz discusses the Federal Reserve’s policy path, whether inflation will actually come down, and if the economy is headed for a no landing. We also delve into the neutral rate, the key election issues for markets, and whether stocks will outperform bonds. __ Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://x.com/biancoresearch Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://x.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Jim & Jack's Assessment Of The Economy (02:58) The Fed & Interest Rates (03:55) Unemployment & The Sahm Rule (06:57) Is Inflation Coming Down? (08:33) Real Interest Rates (11:05) What Is The Neutral Rate? (14:21) The Pace Of The Cutting Cycle (18:41) Election Insights (20:55) Deficits Are The Key Issue (23:11) Will Stocks Outperform Bonds? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:36) The High-Yield Bond Market (10:08) VanEck Ad (10:48) Putting Money To Work When Credit Is Priced Optimistically (19:27) The Bank Loan Market (i.e. Leveraged Loans) (25:04) How Are Loan Borrowers Handling 500 Basis Points Of Increased Debt Costs? (28:59) Permissionless Ad (29:58) The Rise of Private Credit: Are We In The Golden Age? (41:34) Is Private Credit An Untested Asset Class In A Potential Recession? (46:53) What Is The Private Credit Money Used For? (52:57) Why Do Active Managers Manage To Outperform The Index In Credit, When In Equities So Many Underperform? (58:51) Loan Refinancings Are Occurring At A Record Pace (01:03:02) Structured Credit And Non-Agency RMBS (Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities) (01:04:40) Specialty Retail and Emerging Markets (01:07:02) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data and Marketreader Inc., returns to Forward Guidance to provide a quantitative update on currency and bond markets. Jens makes the case that interest rates all across the yield curve are likely headed lower as the Federal Reserve’s last hike is in the rearview mirror, and he argues that the U.S. dollar could depreciate against “risk-off” currencies such as the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and even gold. Filmed on November 22, 2023. MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Use code FG20 to get 20% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Until November 27th, a 20% discount can be obtained on 4-pack passes to DAS as well. Use code “BLACKROCK” at checkout. __ Follow Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://twitter.com/jnordvig Follow Exante Data on Twitter https://twitter.com/ExanteData Follow Marketreader on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarketReaderInc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. (00:00) Introduction (00:25) It's Been A Busy Year (02:29) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of U.S. Economy (13:06) Will There Be A Recession In 2024? (15:44) Jens' Bull Case For Rates (22:27) Fed Will Be "Much More Relaxed" If Services Inflation Continues To Moderate (28:41) Potential For "Big Cuts" (31:07) An Extraordinary Summer In FX (34:34) Jens' Bear Case For Dollar Against Gold and Risk-Off Currencies Such As Swiss Franc

Nicholas Glinsman, veteran macro investor and co-founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update his views on fixed-income and the economy. He argues that shorting the yen // buy non-yen-denominated assets trade, the “greatest carry trade in the world,” may be unwound as the Bank of Japan steers away from yield curve control and potentially will raise interest rates. This would have massive implications on global markets, which Glinsman expounds on in depth. Filmed on November 20, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (09:19) The Deficit Will Probably Increase, Not Decrease (11:05) U.S. Election (15:21) Crypto & European Sovereign Debt Crisis (26:13) Germany's Fiscal Situation (31:51) Geopolitics in Middle East (35:26) The "Biggest Carry Trade In The World" (56:03) Stock Market (01:07:27) U.S. China Relations Are Improving __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of Crowded Market Report, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss his philosophy for trading markets. Shapiro explains that while the only position he currently has on is being long the Swiss Franc, he still thinks stocks will likely outperform bonds based on positioning and sentiment. Filmed on November 16, 2023. __ Today’s interview is brought to you by Sustainable Bitcoin Protocol, an environmental solution for bitcoin. Interested parties can find out more at https://bit.ly/46gFlgr Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (10:51) Stock/Bond Correlation (14:39) Hindsight Is 20/20, Show Me The P&L (16:30) Gold & Oil (21:55) Narratives Are Cheap (26:36) Investing Vs. Trading (32:37) Banks & Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (40:46) Correlations & Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) (49:12) Jason's Long Position in The Swiss Franc (55:26) The Role Of Stop Losses (01:03:42) When To Get Out __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

George Robertson joins Forward Guidance to argue that the exceptionally large fiscal stimulus will mean that the economic boom has no end in sight. Once the market realizes there will be no recession, Robertson continues, stocks will soar and the 10-year will rise. Robertson makes the case that the “true” risk-free yield curve is actually not inverted, a claim at odds with common conceptions and one of many claims that Jack pushes back on, some others being that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has effectively no impact on the economy and that the 10-year Treasury yield is an accurate gauge of future nominal GDP. FIlmed on October 30, 2023. MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow George Robertson on Twitter https://twitter.com/BickerinBrattle Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:00) The Huge Economic Boom Is Just Getting Started (07:16) George Says Federal Reserve Has "Violent" Control of the Press (11:49) George Says Risk-Free Rates Are Commonly Misunderstood (20:32) Federal Reserve is "One Of Greatest Creations Of U.S. Democracy," Says George Robertson (23:08) Debate About Interest Rate Impact on Mortgage Prepayment Speeds (30:00) Debate About Whether Mortgage Curve Is "True" Yield Curve (51:19) SOFR is Complete Useless Garbage (01:02:14) Minsky Comes In: Hedge Phase to Speculative Phase to Ponzi Phase (01:26:00) 10-Year Headed To 6% As "Cheap As Hell" Stocks Will Enter "Ponzi Phase" (01:30:40) It's "Foolish" To Make A Call On Labor as Jobs Market At 50-Year High, Says George Robertson (01:34:00) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) & Inflation (01:45:29) George's Experience With Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jonny Matthews, founder of Super Macro and former portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and managing director at Citi & Saloman Brothers, joins Forward Guidance to share his view on markets and the economy. Having netted a near 100% return in 2022 with a very large short in Treasury bonds, Matthews has been a proud “recession denier” for several years. While he is now concerned with some worrisome data in the U.S., Matthews continues to believe that an imminent recession in the U.S. is unlikely. Matthews and Farley also discuss the dangers of correlation trades, the challenges of currency trading, the severe slowdown in Europe, and the perils of variance swaps in 2008 and Long-Term Capital Management. Filmed on November 2, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes -- Follow Jonny Matthews on Twitter https://twitter.com/super_macro Super Macro: https://t.co/jfb5Vw982B Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:34) Jonny's Massive Trade Shorting Bonds (07:18) Analyzing Bond Demand Is Too Hard: Jonny Prefers To Track The Economy (11:47) Concerning Changes In Recent Economic Data (17:29) Pushing Back Against Jonny's "Recession Denier" Thesis (21:13) Manufacturing Can Enter Recession While Overall Economy Is Not In Recession (22:53) Excess Savings Indicate American Consumer Still Flush With Cash (26:59) Jonny's Macro Trades As Of November 2023 (29:41) Real Rates Are Unlikely To Go Much Higher (31:55) Curve Will Likely Re-Steepen When Fed Cuts Rates (39:39) Economy in Europe Is "Much Much Weaker" (41:33) Views On The Dollar & The Euro (42:55) Bank of England & Inflation In the U.K. (47:47) View On British Stocks (50:16) China & Japan (01:00:22) Trading Volatility Is Different Than Trading The Underlying Asset (01:03:08) The Danger of Correlations Trades: Ghosts of 2008 (01:05:40) Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) Blow-up -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 

In January of 2023, a time where extreme pessimism on stocks and the economy reigned, Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, shared his bullish outlook on equities with Jack. Now that his prediction has come true, Sam returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is much less overweight on equities now than in January, but that he remains somewhat constructive on risk assets even as he expects a modest slowdown in 2024. Filmed on November 3, 2023. __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) Less Overweight Equities Than In January... But Still Overweight (06:54) Monitor of Analysts’ Earnings Revisions (MAER) (11:31) The Housing Market (& Homebuilding Industry) (15:18) The Banks (16:50) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (18:43) Healthcare & Commodity Sectors (20:18) Chinese Stocks (23:55) S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (31:40) Equity Momentum Has Weakened (34:39) Disinflation Will Continue, The Soft Landing Is Here (42:40) At What Point Does Global Manufacturing & Trade Downturn Impact The U.S. Economy? (48:10) Fiscal Tailwinds In The U.S. (54:20) If Interest Rates Decline, Soft Landing Very Likely -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On Todays episode, Ben Santonelli Portfolio Manager at Polen Capital joins the show for a discussion on the state of the high yield bond market. Expecting further weakness in the high yield space, but nothing outside the normal credit cycle, Ben explains where he is finding the best opportunities as "debt investors can now generate equity type returns". To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: FG20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:49) Debt Investors Are Generating Equity Type Returns (05:38) Default Rates Will Increase In 2024 & Beyond (12:41) Loan-to-Value (LTV): Investing In High Quality Businesses (20:05) Loan Demand Has Declined Since 2022 (22:35) Liquidity (31:00) Credit Spreads Are Still Tight (35:35) Credit's Performance During A Recession (39:20) The Weakness In Credit Is Mostly Margin Compression (46:46) If Interest Rates Remain Higher For Longer, We Will See Refinancing Issues (50:41) Wages & Labor -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Spinozzi Remains Bearish On Very Long Duration Bonds (08:18) View On Investment Grade Bonds (09:46) Who Will Be Marginal Buyer Of U.S. Treasurys? (15:40) Foreign Demand for U.S. Treasurys (& Japanese Investors) (22:40) The Shape of the Yield Curve (24:07) Balance Sheet Policy (QT & QE) (32:32) Much Of Europe Is In Recession (42:21) European Demand For U.S. Treasurys (45:47) Barbell Approach To Fixed Income (Short-Term & 10-Year) __ Follow Althea Spinozzi on Twitter https://twitter.com/Altheaspinozzi Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, returns to Forward Guidance alongside Blockworks co-founder Michael Ippolito to break down the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) and Fed’s FOMC meeting that marked the first day of November.  MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=pDapp_Blockworks_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Michael Kao’s article discussed in the show: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflationoilgoldyield-curves-revisiting Follow Michael Kao on Twitter https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Michael Ippolito on Twitter https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin on Twitter https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on oil, bond supply, the housing market, and the labor market. Having been an underweight bonds and overweight commodities (oil), Pies now views both the 10-Year Treasury and oil as roughly fair value. Pies expects the mortgage buydowns, where homebuilders shield new homebuyers from the cost of higher mortgage rates, to no longer work at 8% mortgage buyers. He thinks a recession might start in Q2 2024 as employment in residential construction begins to wane. Filmed on October 27, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=pDapp_Blockworks_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes __ Follow Warren Pies on Twitter https://twitter.com/WarrenPies 3Fourteen Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/3F_Research Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Why Warren Has Been Significantly Underweight Bonds (And Why He Is No Longer) (12:12) Earnings Expectations For Stocks (24:59) Warren's View On Housing Market & Recession (33:31) The Buydown Math For Homebuilders Stops Working At 8% (40:21) Labor Market Remains Very Tight (43:44) Is U.S. Economy Reaccelerating From Trough of 2022? (48:21) Warren's View On Oil (50:56) Hedge Funds Tend To Short Oil On A Directional Basis As Opposed To Being Part of a Basis Trade (Such As So Often The Case In Bonds) (52:42) Overweight Position In Energy Stocks (Within Equity Sleeve) (01:00:09) Pro-Cyclical Deficits Run By U.S. Government __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Tommy Thornton on Twitter https://x.com/TommyThornton Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:52) Tech Stocks Are In A "Bubble," Argues Tommy (15:29) Earnings Season So Far: Tesla and Google (20:51) VanEck Ad (21:32) Interview Continues (25:33) Nvidia and Apple (37:03) What Tom Is Short (39:39) What Tom Is Long (51:49) Permissionless Ad (52:51) Interview Continues (01:00:26) National Debt and Recession Odds (01:03:48) What Would It Take For Tommy To Turn Bullish? (01:14:28) Tom's Story About Charlie Munger __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

What you’re about to listen to is a conversation with Jeremy Siegel, distinguished professor of economics at Wharton, Jeremy Schwartz, CIO of WisdomTree, and Dave Goodson, head of securitized products at Voya Financial, and Jack Farley, who was a guest on this episode of the “Behind The Markets” podcast. The first part of this discussion features Professor Siegel’s macro view on bonds, stocks, and the economy, and the second part of the conversation is devoted to Dave Goodson’s in-depth analysis of the world of securitized products, such as agency MBS, non-agency MBS, commercial MBS, and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). Original episode of “Behind The Markets”: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley-dave-goodson/id1194707802?i=1000632103956 __ Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow WisdomTree on Twitter https://twitter.com/WisdomTreeFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:000 Introduction (01:06) Professor Jeremy Siegel on "Higher For Longer" And His Outlook On Stock Market (08:42) Jack's Question For Professor Siegel (09:07) Professor Jeremy Siegel on "Higher For Longer" And His Outlook On Stock Market (10:51) Dave Goodson On Bond Market (15:42) Does The Historic Cheapness of Agency mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Indicate Bank Funding Stress? (21:41) Opportunities in Non-Agency Structured Products (23:24) Dave Goodson On Non-Agency Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) (31:57) Is The Risk In Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) Not Fully Priced? (40:11) Private Credit CLOs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jack welcomes Casey Wagner, Blockworks' senior policy correspondent, to recap the wild day of the trial of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) on October 26th, when SBF at last takes a stance to testify and rebut allegations of financial crimes. Casey Wagner's recent article on the trial: https://blockworks.co/news/sbf-trial-defense-missing-document https://blockworks.co/news/sam-bankman-fried-trial-day-13__ Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerr Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:27) Evidence Destruction (Document Retention Policy, Of Which There Is No Available Record) (18:17) First Two Witnesses For The Defence (27:04) Sam Bankman-Fried Breaks His Silence (Sworn Testimony Without Jury) (34:38) Courtroom Politics (42:29) How Long Would SBF's Potential Sentence Be? (45:38) Jury Selection & Reaction __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

On todays episode, Craig Manchuck Vice President & Portfolio Manager at Osterweis joins the show for a discussion on the end of the zero interest rate era.  We deep dive into the bond market sell-off over the past 3 years, where to find opportunities in the bond market & the rise of private credit. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! --  Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96  Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:43) The Low Interest Rate Era Is Over (06:55) The Fed's Tightening Will Lead To A Recession (17:47) Investing In A Zero Rate Regime vs Today (23:34) The Indexation Of Fixed Income (27:22) How CLOs & Passive Have Impacted Bonds (41:33) Where Is The Pain From Higher Interest Rates Being Felt? (48:10) The Heyday Of Private Equity Is Over (01:00:19) Liquidity In Private Credit (01:09:35) Understanding The Credit Spread Curve -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode, Aidan Garrib Global Macro Strategy & Research at PGM Global joins the show for a deep dive into the Chinese economy.  We take a look under the hood into the shadow debt within China, the Governments crackdown on credit & Aidan's outlook for both Chinese equities & more broadly the economy. Finally, we shift over to the U.S and discuss the recent bond market sell-off. Have we seen enough pain for bond investors, or will recessionary headwinds lead to a rally in bonds? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance --  Follow Aidan Garrib on Twitter https://twitter.com/AidanGarrib Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96  Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:35) Understanding The Chinese Economy (07:13) China's Stock Market Has Been Flat For A Decade (13:46) Understanding China's Shadow Debt (19:01) China's Real Estate Bubble (25:06) China's Crackdown On Credit (28:19) Is There Systemic Risk In China? (32:16) What's Happening With The Yuan? (36:32) China Is In Recession (43:47) China's Global Reserve Currency Ambitions (50:05) Finding Opportunities In China (57:37) The Bond Market Sell-Off (01:03:50) The Outlook For Equities (01:06:05) Is The U.S Heading For A Recession? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s interview is a very special one. Dr. Claudio Borio, renowned economist and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), joins Joseph Wang of Fedguy.com and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the nature of financial instability and the interplay of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Borio shares insight from recent BIS research on inflationary regimes, financial cycles, and the boundaries of debt-fueled growth. Borio notes that the materialization of interest rate risk has so far been seen in the banking sector, but that we have yet to credit risk. Filmed on October 17, 2023. Some of Borio’s and the BIS’ works mentioned in this interview: “Monetary and fiscal policy: safeguarding stability and trust,” June 2023 Presentation in Basel, Switzerland, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp230625a_slides.pdf “The two-regime view of inflation,” March 2023, Claudio Borio, Marco Lombardi, James Yetman and Egon Zakrajšek https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap133.pdf “International banking and financial market developments” BIS Quarterly Review, September 2023 https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2309.pdf “Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?” 26 January 2023, Claudio Borio, Boris Hofmann and Egon Zakrajšek https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull67.pdf “On money, debt, trust and central banking,” January 2019, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work763.pdf “Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?” November 2021, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work982.pdf “The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?” December 2012, Claudio Borio https://www.bis.org/publ/work395.pdf __ Follow Bank For International Settlements on Twitter https://twitter.com/BIS_org Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Interplay Between Monetary Policy & Fiscal Policy (09:50) High Levels Of Government Indebtedness As A Risk (12:35) Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The Global Economy? (15:56) The Financial Cycle (24:12) The Two Inflationary Regimes (36:45) Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (Quantitative Easing & Quantitative Tightening) (39:34) Liquidity In Sovereign Bond Markets (46:13) Non-Bank Financial Sector Is "Rife With Hidden Leverage & Maturity Mismatches" (50:56) Interest Rate Risk Within Banking System (56:45) Concluding Thoughts On Debt & Inflation __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

John Toohig, managing director and head of whole loan trading at Raymond Jaymes, and Nathan Stovall, director of the financial institutions research team for S&P Global Market Intelligence, join Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to update listeners on the state of the U.S. banking industry. Surging deposit costs, steadily rising defaults, and a freeze on loan liquidity are just some of the topics discussed in this conversation. Filmed the afternoon of October 18, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance __ Latest edition of John Toohig’s “Let’s Talk Loans”: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-70-john-toohig/ __ Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Follow Nate Stovall on Twitter https://twitter.com/StreetTalkpod Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the recently released third quarter earnings from banks such as Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citi, Charles Schwab, and Goldman Sachs. Whalen also discusses with Farley companies about to report such as American Express, PNC Financial, Bank of the Ozarks, and Truist. Filmed the afternoon of October 17, 2023. __ MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://blckwrks.co/MetaMaskForwardGuidance __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Bank Earnings For Third Quarter So Far Are "Cautiously Mediocre" (03:07) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (10:22) Defaults Remain Within 2019 Levels (15:17) Chris Is Somewhat Bearish On Most Of U.S. Banking Sector (19:09) Charles Schwab ($SCHW) (34:48) Goldman Sachs ($GS) (42:42) Regional Banks (PNC, U.S. Bank, Truist) (46:40) Card Issuers Such As American Express, Discover, and Capital One (48:10) Private Equity & Private Credit (51:22) CRE Lenders Such As KeyCorp, Western Alliance, and Bank of the Ozarks (52:28) Risk Of Another Bank Failure (57:53) Potential Of "TARP 2.0" (01:01:30) Is Recent Bear Steepening In Bond Market Good For Banks' Earnings Power? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 

Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge and author of “Disorder: Hard Times In The 21st Century,” joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on European energy, the Federal Reserve, financial repression, and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Filmed on October 12, 2023. __ Helen Thompson’s book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Disorder-Hard-Times-21st-Century/dp/0198864981 Helen Thompson’s book on Oxford Press: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/disorder-9780198864981 Helen Thompson at Cambridge: https://www.polis.cam.ac.uk/Staff_and_Students/dr-helen-thompson __ Follow Helen Thompson on Twitter https://twitter.com/HelenHet20 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Energy In Europe (09:27) Wind and Solar (13:36) Nuclear Energy (22:07) Federal Reserve Has Made American Monetary Power The Strongest It's Ever Been (32:11) Are Fed Rate Hikes A Problem For The Rest Of The World? (35:35) Implications Of Sovereign Debt Levels On Political Economy (41:55) Financial Repression And Capital Controls (51:34) The Future Of Money And The Dollar (56:47) U.S. China Relations (01:00:46) Conflict In Israel __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 

On todays episode, Bob Elliott CIO at Unlimited Funds & Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion on the late cycle slowdown coming throughout the end of 2023 & into 2024.We discuss the impact of passive investing & to what degree earnings really matter in todays modern market structure, the relative value in bonds vs stocks & what delinquencies could be signalling in terms of credit going forward. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:15) The Bond Market Sell-Off (04:09) Is The Bond Market Pain Over? (06:37) The Economy Remains Strong… For Now (13:23) Fading The Soft Landing (19:36) The Passive Investing Machine Keeps Churning (26:19) Who Is The Marginal Buyer Of Bonds In 2023/24? (30:49) We're In The Late Stages Of A Macro Cycle (36:16) A Maturity Wall Is On The Horizon (38:42) The Best Risk/Reward In Markets (49:20) Bitcoin, Gold & Bond's During Geopolitical Conflict (59:12) Recession & The Unemployment Rate (01:02:48) Banks Are Less Important In The Credit Cycle Today (01:15:51) Will The Fed Cut Rates In 2024? (01:24:05) Seeking Alpha vs Beta -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

David Cervantes of Pine Brook Capital Management LLC joins Forward Guidance to share why he faded the recession consensus of 2022, why he decided to short bonds this year, and why as of early October he sees an opportunity to be long the U.S. 10-year Treasury as a tactical long. Filmed on October 5, 2023. Follow David Cervantes on Twitter https://twitter.com/pinebrookcap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (02:58) Why 1 Year Ago Cervantes Thought Recession Was Unlikely (07:05) Cervantes' Short Bond Trade (14:45) Fed Policy (26:16) Tracking The Economy (32:35) There May Be A Slowdown, But A Recession Is Unlikely In Near-Term (45:41) The Maturity Wall Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy”: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf Nouriel Roubini’s book discussed in the interview, “Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy”: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Cycles-Macroeconomy-Alberto-Alesina/dp/0262510944 Nouriel Roubini’s latest book, “Megathreats”: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/?lens=little-brown Follow Nouriel Roubini on Twitter https://x.com/Nouriel Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://x.com/SteveMiran Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) What Is "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI)? (08:00) The Mechanics Of How The U.S. Treasury Has Altered Engaged In "Activist Treasury Issuance" (20:52) VanEck Ad (24:21) Activist Treasury Issuance Played A Role In Boosting Asset Values, And In Avoiding A Recession (And Might Have Caused A "No Landing" Instead of a "Soft Landing") (29:53) History of Treasury's "Bill Share": GFC, Money Market Reform, March 2020 Panic (33:44) How Much Does Current Treasury Issuance Differ From Historical Issuance Patterns? (45:43) Permissionless Ad (46:46) Does Government Borrowing "Crowd Out" Private Investment? (59:09) Will ATI Continue In The Next Presidential Administration? (01:07:20) Long-Term Interest Rates Could Rise and Force a "Meaningful Repricing of Risk Assets" (01:10:49) It's Not Just The Fed - U.S. Treasury Has "Forward Guidance" Now Too (01:13:02) Nouriel Roubini's Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Lyn Alden Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy & Author of Broken Money joins the show for a discussion on the recent bond market meltdown before diving deep into why our current monetary order is broken, the pro's vs con's of hard money and how Bitcoin could be a solution to the current monetary disorder.To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Referenced In The Show: Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better: https://amzn.to/3tizFVg Money and the Mechanism of Exchange: https://bit.ly/3rJDpi0 -- Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Bond Market Meltdown (11:18) Buying Bonds Here Is Not A Great Trade (14:30) Are We Heading For A U.S Recession? (17:12) Commercial Real Estate Is Under Pressure, Energy Remains Strong (21:51) Risk vs Reward In Equities (24:38) Broken Money: What Is Money? (31:45) Why Is Money Broken? (36:43) The "Golden Age" Of Money (43:00) Does "Sound Money" Lead To Prosperity? (46:49) The 21st Century Has Marked The Golden Age Of Energy (51:23) The Lack Of Transparency In Fiat Money (54:54) Hard Money Puts A Check On Government Spending (01:02:22) Countries Will Demand A Harder Currency Over Time: U.S Dollars, Gold & Bitcoin (01:06:32) Re-Thinking The Current Monetary System (01:16:26) Bitcoin Is In The Early Phase Of Adoption (01:21:53) Bitcoin & The Layers Of Money (01:35:34) The Bridge From Fiat To Bitcoin (01:41:02) Stablecoins -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Alfonso Peccatiello Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass joins the show for a discussion on the U.S bond market sell-off and it implications for broader markets, both domestically & internationally. Weighing sentiment, risk/reward & economic signals, Alfonso assesses if the current sell-off is justified, or is the trend about to reverse and provide an attractive opportunity to go long bonds? To hear all this & much much more, you'll have to tune in! -- Sign up to The Macro Compass bond course & use the code "Macro20" for a 20% discount: https://www.themacrocompass.com/courses/#bond-market-course -- Follow Alfonso on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Bond Market Sell-Off (11:38) Testing Bond Market Sentiment (21:16) What Could Go Wrong Being Long Bonds? (27:37) Bond Market Term Premium (35:05) The Best Risk/Reward Is Short Equities (38:36) The Real Weakness Is In Europe (46:28) The Dollar Wrecking Ball (51:00) Understanding The Yield Curve: Bear Steepening (54:58) Supply & Demand In The U.S Bond Market (58:46) Bank Bond Buying & Interest Rate Hedging (01:17:40) Bear Steepening During An Inverted Yield Curve (01:23:16) Will Bonds Continue Selling Off Until Something Breaks? (01:28:47) Are European Banks More Resilient Than U.S Banks, Or Not? (01:35:00) The Macro Compass Bond Market Class & 20% Discount -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Luke Gromen, founder of Forest For The Trees, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the steep sell-off in the long-end of the U.S. Treasury market. Filmed on September 25, 2023. Follow Luke Gromen on Twitter https://twitter.com/LukeGromen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Spencer Jakab, editor of Heard On The Street for The Wall Street Journal, joins Forward Guidance to share what he learned writing his latest book, “The Revolution That Wasn't: GameStop, Reddit, and the Fleecing of Small Investors.” Jakab and Farley discuss meme-stock mania in all its aspects: the outwitting of hedge funds by individual investors, the transformation of r/WSB from a trading club to a “movement,” the shameless promotion by influencers, and the tallying of who ultimately got rich. Filmed on September 19, 2023. Spencer’s book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/690543/the-revolution-that-wasnt-by-spencer-jakab/ Spencer’s book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Revolution-That-Wasnt-GameStop-Investors/dp/0593421159 Follow Spencer Jakab on Twitter https://twitter.com/Spencerjakab Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:23) Fleecing Of Small Investors (16:40) Problems At The Clearinghouse (31:13) Gamma Squeezes via Out-of-the-Money Short-Dated Call Options (38:19) Who Was Still Short? (51:02) The r/wsb Strategy Become A Movement (56:28) The Influencers: Dave Portnoy, Chamath Palihapitiya, and Jack Farley (01:06:10) The Theories Of Conspiracy (01:13:44) How To Beat Wall Street (Actually) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Brian Quintenz, head of policy for a16z crypto and former commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), joins Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the future of crypto regulation. Filmed on September 12 at Blockworks’ Permissionless in Austin, Texas. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Nanette Jacobson, Global Investments Strategist at Hartford Funds, joins Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook. Jacobson argues that it might be time to lean into bonds because the bonds tend to rally 13 months before the Federal Reserve cuts rates, and she and Jack Farley debate the various merits of owning bonds at this juncture in the business cycle. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Economic Outlook (09:04) Outlook On Banking System (12:45) Views On Interest Rates & Fed (25:20) China is "Cheap For A Reason" (30:14) U.S. Fiscal Stimulus (37:22) Cautious Views On Stocks (39:05) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (39:06) Debate About Bonds (45:56) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (50:52) Expensive Stocks Can Always Get More Expensive

Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the September meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed on September 20, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Jay Powell Goes Off Script (16:50) Oil & Inflation (25:54) Odds Of A Liquidity Crisis Forcing The Fed To Stop QT (Danielle Doesn't Buy It!) (40:13) Normalization of Credit (46:52) Danielle's Hypothesis That March 2020 Might Not Count As A Recession (53:13) Will There Be A NBER-Declared Recession Within 24 Months (And Why)? (01:01:00) Risk Of Government Shutdown

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce joins Jack Farley to share her views on crypto regulation and the SEC’s purview of it. Filmed on September 12 at Blockworks’ Permissionless in Austin, Texas. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (04:39) Crypto & Transparency - What Is The SEC's Role? (07:29) What Is A "Security"? Commissioner Peirce's Views (15:00) SEC Proposal To Change Definition Of An Exchange (17:00) Crypto And Alleged "Lawlessness" (20:21) Does The SEC's Jurisdiction Begin And End With "Securities"? (23:07) Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) (26:45) Proposed Money Market Fund (MMF) Reform (29:14) Difference Between A Money Market Fund And A Stablecoin

Jack Farley hosts Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital, and Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, for a panel on whether the near-term macro situation will be a headwind or tailwind for crypto. Filmed on September 12, 2023, at Blockworks' Permissionless II in Austin, Texas. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jurrien Timmer on Twitter https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ _____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Is Macro A Headwind Or Tailwind For Crypto? (23:41) Will Fed Keep Interest Rates "Higher For Longer"? (28:53) The Banking System (34:14) Will There Be A Recession In 2024? (39:58) Final Verdict: Will Macro Be A Headwind Or Tailwind For Crypto (Or Does It Not Matter)?

Jack interviews Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital at Blockworks’ Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Macro Doesn't Matter For Crypto (05:24) 4 Main Factors That Affect Venture Capital (VC) Returns (13:59) Metcalfe's Law As A Valuation Framework (17:21) Mark Yusko: "I Am Not A Bitcoin Maximalist" (20:44) Mark Yusko: "I Am A Big China Bull"

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://x.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Overview of Chris' Banking Outlook (04:59) Bank of America (12:54) VanEck Ad (15:39) Charles Schwab (20:27) Credit Cards and Auto (27:21) Permissionless Ad (28:24) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (35:51) Smaller Banks Are Leading The Larger Banks (40:34) Capital Markets Activity Is Picking Back Up (44:43) Private Credit & Private Equity (47:21) Synthetic Risk Transfers (56:42) Basel III Endgame Might Be Shelved If Trump Gets Re-Elected (01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System? (01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out (01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jack interviews Jim Bianco of Bianco Research at Blockworks’ Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ _____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (03:29) No Rate Cuts If Oil Prices Stay High (06:28) Jim Bianco: The Recession Already Happened In 2022 (15:11) What Is Appropriate Level On Interest Rates (And Bond Yields) For U.S. Economy? (24:59) A "Garden Variety Recession" Hasn't Occurred In Many Decades (33:28) Household's And Corporates' Terming Out Of Debt In 2020 (34:41) Mortgage Market Is Hurting Banks (42:55) Fixed-Income Outlook: Duration Vs. Credit (45:37) Jim Bianco: Macro Will Be A Headwind For Crypto (51:54) Increased Regulatory Scrutiny For Crypto

Andrew Beer, managing member of DBI, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the need for drastic fee reduction in hedge-fund like return vehicles. Beer and Farley explore in depth the mysteries of trend following (also known as CTAs or managed futures) strategies, which provide investors with positive carrying uncorrelated return streams that can be very beneficial in years such as 2022, when stocks and bonds both suffered a severe drawdown. Filmed on September 6, 2023. Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:04) Alpha & Beta (02:25) What Hedge Funds Do Well (11:17) Paying High Hedge Fund Feeds Is Like "Shooting Yourself In The Foot" (14:31) The Strategy of Managed Futures (or Commodity Trading Advisors) (29:40) The Rise of the "Pod Model" In Multi-Manager Hedge Funds (39:00) Picking Hedge Fund Managers Is A Largely Hopeless Task (44:29) Many Hedge Funds Have Missed The 2023 Tech Rally (50:24) Optimal Rebalancing Between Strategies (57:53) History Of Bad Ideas In Creation of New Investment Products: "Alternative Risk Premia" (59:42) A Lof Of Academic Finance Is Insane (01:01:20) The "Value Factor" As We Once Knew It No Longer Exists (01:16:36) Ark & Cathie Wood (01:25:51) China Was "Adored" By Hedge Fund Community

Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share his view on the U.S. business cycle. Basmajian notes that the 2022 decline in economic growth rate turned into a remarkable stabilization of broad coincident indicators of economic activity that began in January 2023 and persisted throughout the spring stresses in the banking system. However, he remains confident that the U.S. economy will enter a recession soon, and he discusses in detail several of his leading indicators that motivate his view. Filmed on September 7, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance Link to YCharts' Webinar on September 22nd: https://ycharts.zoom.us/webinar/register/5916933495668/WN_OD3x5xyzQ7qWTrtGDChLFA Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Pre-Recession Phase Continues (06:25) Housing And Autos Are Not Slowing Down That Much (13:19) Consumer Credit Is Still Somewhat Strong (For Now) (16:17) When Will Recession Come? (23:11) Pushing Back Against The Recessionary Thesis (30:14) How Far Will Unemployment Rate Go? (32:06) Does New Bull Market In Stocks Indicate There Will Be No Recession? (36:40) Debate On Mechanics Of How Higher Interest Rates Constrain Economic Activity (39:56) Banking System And Credit Crunch (52:35) Contraction In Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Is Signalling A Recession (01:00:23) What Is Eric's Level Of Confidence That U.S. Is Indeed Headed For A Recession? (01:09:47) Outlook on Rates & Bond Yields

This is Jack’s guest appearance on the Behind The Markets Podcast with Jeremy Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, and Jeremy Siegel, renowned finance professor at Wharton and senior economist to WisdomTree. The trio tackle the labor market, the stock market, the interest rate sensitivity of the three segments of the U.S. economy (households, businesses, and the government), as well as the banking system, which Jack shares his thoughts on in some depth. Recorded on September 1st, 2023. Original episode on Behind The Markets: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley/id1194707802?i=1000626532544 Jeremy Siegel’s book, “Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies”: https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment/dp/0071800514 Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow WisdomTree on Twitter https://twitter.com/WisdomTreeFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (04:58) Money Supply & Other Monetary Aggregates (07:21) Bond Market (08:42) Jack's Question For Professor Siegel About Non-Farm Payrolls (12:30) Professor Siegel's Short-Term Modestly Bullish View On Stocks (15:29) Stocks And The Economy (19:39) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of American Households (28:24) Jack's Views On Banking System

When quiet legend of technical analysis Milton Berg first appeared on Forward Guidance in January 2023, he predicted a scorching stock bull market. Now that his call has aged very well, he returns to the program urging caution. Although his model portfolio is 100% long based on short-term indicators, he expects that any move higher will be temporary and that the bull market will end soon. Filmed on September 5, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:09) Reviewing Milton Berg's Successful Bullish Call in January 2023 (07:23) Market Outlook Now (20:00) "This Market Is In A Lot Of Trouble (22:16) Eight Reasons To Doubt That This Bull Market Will Continue (28:05) Banking Index Often Bottoms Before General Stock Market Bull Move (30:14) High Interest Rates Are A Deflationary Force (36:26) Stock Market Not As Healthy As It Seems (56:16) Market Cycle Dates (01:05:54) Milton Berg No Longer Bullish On China (01:08:17) Anticipating the End Of This Rally (01:18:35) Bullish Call On Bank Index (01:24:13) Stocks Will Likely Decline Below Low Of October 2022, Argues Berg ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode, Aahan Menon Founder of Prometheus Research joins the show for a discussion on his current macro outlook looking at the economy, growth, markets & liquidity. With a wave of U.S Treasury issuance on the horizon, Aahan explains why he now sees a perfect opportunity to be short stocks & bonds and he expects further headwinds for assets in this environment. To hear Aahan explain why, and much more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Prometheus Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/prometheusmacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) Progressing Through A Tightening Cycle (07:57) How To Measure Liquidity (15:51) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is On The Horizon (24:09) Is The Fed Behind The Curve? (29:10) Inflation (38:25) Credit Is Contracting, Just Not Enough... Yet (43:17) When To Shift From Short Stocks & Bonds (50:44) Private vs Public Sector Liquidity (59:41) Prometheus Research -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s interview is a deep-dive into commercial real estate (CRE), an asset class which includes office, multifamily housing (apartments), hotels, data centers, malls, and more. Jack welcomes John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, Thomas LaSalvia, Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics at Moody's Analytics, and Victor Calanog, Manulife’s Managing Director & Global Head of Research and Strategy, Real Estate Private Markets, for a wide-ranging discussions on the challenges and opportunities within CRE, with a focus on how the recent interest rate shock has impacted property values, cash flows, interest expense, and other key metrics in the CRE world. Filmed on August 30, 2023. -- Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Follow “Let’s Talk Loans” on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7103476860633718784/ Follow Moody’s CRE Insights: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/ Moody’s CRE piece on CMBS Office Loan Maturity: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-news/ma-cre-office-loan-maturity-monitor-office-payoffs-significantly-lag-other-property-types/ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (08:15) Payment Shock For Real Estate Funded With Debt Before The Fed Raised Rates (11:02 Maturity Defaults Are On The Rise (13:25) Office Sector Is By Far Facing The Biggest Challenges Vs. Other CRE Compenents (19:22) Who Owns The Equity In These CRE Deals? (22:25) Gap Between Private Valuations and Public Valuations (25:51) Higher For Longer Is Exponentially Increasing Debt Costs For Real Estate (30:03) State Of The Secondary Market For Real Estate Loans (35:14) Cash Flows Matter More Than "Loan-To-Value" (40:08) There's A Hesitation Right Now For Institutions To Take Losses (42:27) Odds Of A True Recessions vs. A "Slow-Cession" (and Soft Landing & No Landing) (45:35) How Common Is Interest Rate Hedging Among Leveraged Real Estate Investors? (48:01) Slowdown In New Originations For CRE Loans (52:46) Fundamnetals Of Multifamily (Apartment Buildings) (01:01:05) Negative Leverage In The MultiFamily Market (01:07:31) Insurance Costs Are Skyrocketing (01:10:54) Retail (example: Malls) And Hospitality (example: Hotels) (01:16:45) China (01:20:28) Closing Thoughts On U.S. Banking System (01:22:52) Conclusion -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show to discuss the continuing recessionary pressures he sees building in the economy. Preparing for a recession within the next six months, David walks through prior Fed tightening cycles, the lagged effects of fiscal stimulus that are now dwindling and the incoming credit crunch that will materialize towards the end of 2023 into 2024. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance -- Follow David Rosenberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) The Big Story Is What Happens Next Year (09:27) Questioning The Higher For Longer Narrative (20:20) What Causes A Recession? (24:56) How Sensitive Is The Economy To Higher Interest Rates? (35:34) We Haven't Felt The Full Impact Of Higher Interest Rates Yet (42:02) The Politics Of Deficit Spending (47:01) There Are Three Stages To Every Bear Market (59:37) How Deep Will The Credit Crunch Be? (01:06:56) Fitch's AAA Downgrade (01:09:41) The Fed Has Overtightened (01:14:12) The Manufacturing Cycle & Unemployment (01:16:00) Where Will The Unemployment Rate Peak? _____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In fall 2022 when most economists were anticipating an imminent recession, Vincent Deluard made the bold call that several forms of “stealth stimulus” would prevent the U.S. from entering a recession in 2023. Now Deluard, director of Global Macro at StoneX, returns to Forward Guidance to share why these hidden forms of government stimulus (social security cost of living adjustment, tax-bracket adjustment, etc.) will be less of a factor in 2024, and as such, Deluard expects the U.S. economy to slow. Deluard reaffirms his long-term inflationary view and explains why he is bearish U.S. stocks, and prefers international stocks. Filmed on August 21, 2023. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow StoneX on Twitter https://twitter.com/stoneX_official Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The "Stealth Stimulus" Is Over (13:15) How Much Tightening Effect Of Higher Rates Has Already Been Felt? (18:55) Making Sense of 2023 Stock Market Rally (20:59) The Second Wave Of Inflation (26:40) Is Central Banks' Inflation Target Unnecessary? (41:13) Vincent's Bull Case For Non-U.S. Assets (46:49) China (49:52) Europe (53:29) Japan (55:35) Sector Analysis: Healthcare, Tech, Energy, Financials (59:14) Bearish View On U.S. Stocks (01:02:25) Bank Outlook After Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow Mike Singleton https://twitter.com/InvictusMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Singleton's Macro Process (12:47) The Excess Savings Debate (17:06) U.S. Economy Headed For Severe Recession In 2023 (19:19) The Best Time To Buy Bonds (24:06) Unemployment Rate To Go As High As 7% (48:52) The Spending Boom ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://x.com/michaelxpettis Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Recent writings by Michael Pettis: “Which Country Should Design U.S. Industrial Policy?”: https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets/2024/07/which-country-should-design-us-industrial-policy?lang=en “Trade and the Manufacturing Share”: https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/trade-and-the-manufacturing-share/ “Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace”: https://www.amazon.com/Trade-Wars-Are-Class-International/dp/0300244177 __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) The Problem With China's Investment-Driven Growth Model (09:52) Why Increasing China's Consumption Is So Hard (17:36) China's Plan To Reignite Economic Growth In China (20:43) Why China Will Follow Similar Path To Japan In Its Economic Decline In 1990s (24:03) Impact That Trade Surplus Countries (China, Germany, etc.) Have on Trade Deficit Countries (U.S., U.K., etc.) (28:06) VanEck Ad (28:46) Interview Continues (36:59) The Fall of The "Trade Is Always Good" Consensus Among Economists (49:58) Permissionless Ad (50:57) Is China "Cheating At Trade"? (57:19) The Three Things The U.S. Can Do To Respond To Its Role As "Global Consumer Of Last Resort" (01:01:53) Why U.S. Capital Controls Are Necessary To Truly Fix The American Trade Deficit (01:06:35) Both Trump and Biden Factions Are Determined To Resolve U.S.' Trade Imbalances (01:08:36) China's Move From Real Estate To Manufacturing Is Exacerbating Its Trade Surplus With The Rest Of The World (01:14:53) Chinese Real Estate Crisis Unlikely To Imperil The Chinese Banking System, Argues Pettis (Because The Government Is In Control) (01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System? (01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out (01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode, Mark Neuman Founder & CIO of Constrained Capital joins the show for a discussion on environmental, social & corporate governance's (ESG's) role in the financial industry. To hear all about the origins of ESG, accurately measuring returns & some of the issues prevalent underneath the ESG label, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mark Neuman on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkNeuman18 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:vhttps://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) The Origins Of ESG (04:32) Measuring ESG Investing (16:47) What Stocks Are Underowned Within The Indices? (24:00) Silicon Valley Bank (26:21) Show Me The Incentive & I'll Show You the Outcome (32:50) ExxonMobil, Tesla & FTX (43:59) Weighting Within ESG Funds (49:06) Did 2022 Mark A Turning Point For ESG Investing? (54:38) HERO: Healing The Environment Regenerating Ourselves -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Marshall Stocker, co-Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, shares his insight why country selection has a greater effect on excess returns than company selection, and shares his view on investment opportunities and challenges in China, Greece, India, South Africa, and other countries. Filmed at Camp Kotok in August 2023. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Country Allocation Is Greater Source of Excess Returns Than Company Selection (03:55) Greatest Country Overweight: Greece (07:32) Underweight South Africa and India (08:33) Can Governments Default On Debt Denominated In Currencies They Can Print? The Answer May Surprise You! (10:54) Could The U.S. Ever Have An "Emerging Market Debt Crisis"? (12:31) Chinese Equities ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack interviews William “Bill” Isaac, who served as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1981 to 1985. Isaac recounts his handling of large bank failures in the 1970s and 1980s, including the collapse of Continental Illinois, which was the largest FDIC takeover until Washington Mutual in 2008. Isaac argues that at the core of banking issues is fiscal imprudence by the U.S. Congress which has caused inflation and rate volatility. Filmed on August 16, 2023. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ William "Bill" Isaac is Chairman of Secura/Isaac Group, a global advisory firm serving the financial services industry. Bill has an unparalleled career in the financial industry and public service, spanning over 50 years. He served as Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1978 through 1985, working to maintain stability during the banking and thrift crises of the 1980s, when over 3,000 banks and thrifts failed. He also served as Chairman of Fifth Third Bancorp. For more information on Bill's past and current work, visit securaisaac.com ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Bill's Early Journey To The FDIC (03:23) Anatomy Of A Bank Failure (12:40) Does Technology Hasten Bank Runs? (21:30) Impact of High Interest Rates On Banking System (31:01) Fiscal Policy Is Out Of Control (40:48) Federal Reserve Should Play A Role In Fiscal Matters, Says Former FDIC Chair (49:07) Is Inflation Itself, And Not Debt, The True Problem? (Modern Monetary Theory) (56:10) Two Reasons Why Banks Fall (On Asset Side): Credit & Duration (01:08:28) Are Banking Issues In The U.S. Systemic? (01:16:42) Debating The Need For Zero Interest Rates After the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timecodes: