Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Eurodollar University
| Titre | Date | Durée | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Data Shows the ENTIRE Service Economy Is Facing Collapse | 30 Aug 2024 | 00:17:45 | |
New information from various sources all around the US service sector shows a downturn taking hold in that segment with employment signals turning more and more negative. It confirms the ongoing and more decisive bull steepening continuing to take shape in the Treasury market. Even mainstream sources are having to cover the fact there is something big happening when you can see it in services. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNN A key part of America’s economy has shifted into reverse FRB Philadelphia August 2024 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Germany Is in Full Blown "Crisis" Mode, Heres What that Means for the World | 29 Aug 2024 | 00:18:51 | |
German observers are saying the economy has reached crisis proportions and the reason is what the US economy's weakness is doing to the rest of the world. Rather than recover as many in Europe had hoped, the situation has turned grim due to America's growing negatives. As one result, bulls are firmly in charge of all the curves. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis IFO Business Climate Index deteriorates (August 2024) Dow Jones German business increasingly in trouble, Ifo survey finds WSJ German Economic Expectations Nosedive as Global Slowdown Fears Bite S&P Global/HCOB Germany PMIs August 2024 deStatis Germany June Trade Bundesbank Forecast for Germany: German economy slowly regaining its footing
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| The REAL Economic Data Was Just Released, It's Not Good | 19 Aug 2024 | 00:17:43 | |
Revisions are a normal part of high frequency data. Constant, near-exclusive downward revisions are not. Rewrites should be more evenly distributed which means these stats are overstating the economy. Plus, the problem is spreading hitting retail sales and IP as well as payrolls. While everyone went nuts over retail sales, the problem with July's number isn't just the likely downward revision. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg Fed’s Goolsbee Says He’s Growing More Concerned About Employment Bloomberg Manufacturers Axe Products as a Factory Slowdown Lingers https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Critical Data is Predicting 1-2% Interest Rates Are Coming, SOON | 05 May 2024 | 00:23:42 | |
What would the price of oil be without Saudi Arabia's actions? What would Treasury yields be without the Fed? There is a way for us to determine what the underlying fundamental monetary and financial conditions really are which offers a rough approximation for both. Crude would be a lot less and market interest rates, let's just say there's no inflation whatsoever in these fundamentals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Communism is Infiltrating The World BECAUSE of Economics | 03 May 2024 | 00:18:31 | |
We need to confront the fact there remains a serious problem in the US with Marxism. To successfully counter the threat REQUIRES first we understand why that is and what keeps it going. It's not enough to "clap back" with platitudes correctly pointing to Communism's barbaric history. Nor is the modern world's prosperity a sufficient counterargument. The true Socialist admits that's what capitalism was supposed to have accomplished. The entire matter revolves around whether that last statement truly is in the past tense. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis the Atlantic Why the Phrase 'Late Capitalism' Is Suddenly Everywhere QUB Law Society Demystifying late stage capitalism on both a global and national level: the ball and chain of a 21st century free market economy AP Archive CAN973 FILE / ARCHIVE FOOTAGE OF VLADIMIR LENIN RCM July 10, 2020 Socialism Would Have Been Easy to Discredit, Had There Been Growth The Atlantic 26 Years of Growth: Shanghai Then and Now
Time Magazine May 30, 1938 https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Jobs Are No longer Hiring | 02 May 2024 | 00:17:06 | |
Hiring has near completely dried up in the US labor market, contrary to all mainstream talk of a booming economy. JOLTS hires was the lowest since March and April 2020, and apart from those the worst in six and a half years. That substantial weakness was further corroborated by some of the biggest companies in the world reporting sharply lower results on increasing consumer difficulties. Yet, everyone will be focused entirely on the Fed and its absurd "inflation" fixation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Chair Powell Press Conference Playback May 1, 2024 USA Today Bloomberg Starbucks Posts First Sales Drop Since 2020 During Global Pullback Bloomberg KFC Owner’s Sales Fall for First Time Since 2020 ISM Manufacturing Press Release https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Consumer Confidence Is TANKING ( what this means) | 01 May 2024 | 00:19:40 | |
Evidence for demand destruction in the US economy is really piling up. Consumer sentiment tumbled, services businesses in parts of the country are shedding workers in a way and to a degree we only see during recession, and major Midwest manufacturing plunged. All that was just today. The common theme through each one is a change in employment conditions and not the good one. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Another Bank Just Failed, How Many More Will Come?! | 30 Apr 2024 | 00:19:46 | |
The first bank failure of 2024 is a familiar tale. A relatively small institution in Philadelphia, by itself it doesn't really mean all that much. However, there are a couple of important developments to go along with the background which raise questions and a few concerns. Is this the second chapter for the bank crisis? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FDIC Press Release Republic First's last SEC filing Republic First's last posted balance sheet Bloomberg's April 2024 report on FDIC soliciting bids Bloomberg's October 2023 report on FDIC soliciting bids https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| This Data Shows The State Of The U.S. Economy | 29 Apr 2024 | 00:17:47 | |
This week's big miss in US GDP raises several questions about the state of the economy. It was significant enough to immediately call into doubt the soft landing. Last year's surge now appears to have been just a short run temporary jump, meaning GDP might be joining the majority of macro data indicating much sharper and more serious weakness than was though just before the data's release. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre S&P Global April 2024 flash PMIs https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Japanese Yen PLUNGING, Worrying Governments Around The World | 28 Apr 2024 | 00:20:45 | |
It's not just that Japan's yen is crashing, it's what a yen crash means to everyone not only in Japan. But why? All you'll hear from the mainstream and most "experts" is that every currency exchange rate movement including JPY must be somehow related to a central bank, especially the Fed. It's a myth easily debunked. When doing the debunking the real truth emerges and it's not good. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Yen Drops Beyond 158 Per Dollar as BOJ Keeps Key Rate Unchanged Trilateral Ministerial Joint Press Statement FOMC Transcript February 1998 https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Bombshell GDP Report Confirms Everything | 26 Apr 2024 | 00:17:07 | |
GDP comes in the worst in two years because prices shot up again, therefore the term "stagflation" is going to be everywhere. Which prices changed actually makes a huge difference given the fact those particular prices are more likely to help the US economy get back to its depression tendencies. And on that count, we have irrefutable proof from oil, gasoline, and energy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Oh Sh*t, The Government Just Spent $11 TRILLION | 25 Apr 2024 | 00:18:21 | |
Uncle Sam tried his best to buy a recovery. The sheer amount of money redistributed by the federal govt the past four years is incomprehensible. Here's the thing: the transfers didn't stop in 2021. A huge chunk of them kept going right on to today. And still it wasn't enough to stabilize an economy that is showing signs of even more weakening. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Oil Prices Are CRUSHING The Economy (What You Need To Know) | 24 Apr 2024 | 00:17:56 | |
Oil prices aren't inflationary, they're disinflationary. We are getting more proof right now as incoming data shows demand being destroyed. This is creating difficulties for the US economy on top of severe strain around the rest of the world. Several key markets are picking up the distress, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917 Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report April 2024 Bloomberg China Is Front and Center of Gold’s Record-Breaking Rally https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| I've Changed My Mind, I Think Interest Rates are About to Rise, Here's Why | 18 Aug 2024 | 00:17:19 | |
Financial volatility. Recession conditions. Lower growth and inflation. The rate cuts are still coming. So, that means interest rates around the world are about to go...UP? The fundamentals haven't changed - the calendar has. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| BREAKING: Fed’s Financial Stability Report Just Dropped (What You Need To Know) | 23 Apr 2024 | 00:19:09 | |
The Fed's latest semi-annual report on financial risks contains a couple of important updates. First, we get a sense of where the systemic attempt to deal with the downside to the commercial real estate bubble stands. That also feeds into the most recent updates on US banks and the deteriorating credit environment. Plus, we also take a look at why the Fed's report singled-out the stock market and what that means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report April 2024 https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| They Can't Hide It Anymore | 22 Apr 2024 | 00:18:41 | |
There is a tendency to conflate the behavior of consumer prices with the condition of the economy. With the current mania over recent CPIs in full bloom, fears extend into the real economy. Is it really "too hot?" Recent data from the Federal Reserve itself actually helps separate the facts from the misperceptions. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre Beige Book April 2024 https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| 100% Proof Rate Hikes DON'T Work | 21 Apr 2024 | 00:19:12 | |
The world is starting to get the idea that rate hikes are not all they're cracked up to be. Yet, we're forced to focus endlessly on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies. Why? The answer is really simple. More importantly, what's really going on in the economy? That answer is also pretty simple, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Jay Powell Jackson Hole August 2023 Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead FOMC Transcript July 2014 Ben Bernanke Jan 2009 The Crisis and the Policy Response https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Proof The Fed is FLAT Out Lying to You | 19 Apr 2024 | 00:17:39 | |
The Fed is all over the place, flip-flopping sometimes within a matter of weeks. They're confident about inflation then they're not. What's the real reason for so much back and forth, the obvious insecurity? It's the story no one really knows and what actually ties the current day with the past Great Inflation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CSPAN William Proxmire https://www.c-span.org/video/?39834-1/government-waste https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4704392/sen-william-proxmire Hutchinson v Proxmire Federal Reserve Memo Nov 6, 1973 & letter from Arthur Burns to Senator Proxmire NYT Dec 2, 1975 Proxmire Would Curtail Banks FOMC Transcript July 1981 https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| New Housing Data Down 15% In One MONTH! | 18 Apr 2024 | 00:16:14 | |
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW Updates from the US housing and energy sectors heavily rebuff the idea reflation. There is supposed to be resurgent demand when new data shows the opposite, including a shocking crash in one critical segment. Not only do they contradict reflation, these also expose the CPI. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Rent.com The Rent Report April 2024 https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Has The Government Debt Crisis Finally Started? | 17 Apr 2024 | 00:18:04 | |
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW UST yields are up somewhat sharply since early April, raising questions as to why that is. High on the public list of suspects is a government bond crisis for obvious Uncle Sam insanity reasons. Others point to possible reflation in higher yields. We do have a solid, historically validated answer for Treasuries, but it's written in German. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Oh Sh*t, The Narrative has COMPLETELY flipped | 16 Apr 2024 | 00:18:37 | |
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW Higher (slightly) interest rates and a couple rising commodities has brought back the reflation trade. For those to be valid, there would have to be widespread confirmation that a meaningful pickup in demand is brewing. Instead, there are huge holes including the most critical signal of them all. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Mining.com Global copper smelters less active after China’s planned output cuts https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| The Chinese Banking System is COLLAPSING | 15 Apr 2024 | 00:17:22 | |
Is the Great Migration about to get worse? The answer starts in China where just the week the country already reported a sharp fall in consumer prices. CNY is down and so are government bond yields there. The Chinese also said the economy suffered a big drop in exports and then suffered a record low growth rate for lending. Banking woes, trade setbacks, further declines in growth and inflation expectations. The rest of the world is going to feel the effects. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis S&P Global Ratings Fitch Ratings Fitch Revises Outlook on China to Negative; Affirms at 'A+' https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Fed Reports "People Now Unable to Pay Off Credit Card Debt" | 14 Apr 2024 | 00:17:50 | |
The economy is doing just fine according to many statistics, but according to most people it is anything but. Those aren't just idle malcontents, either. A fundamental fact of the current state of the world is that it will have to reckon for that economic pain and substantial loss. Many now merely believe that worst is behind is, but what if it is still lying just ahead? Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre FRB Philadelphia Q4 2023 Insights Report JP Morgan Chase Q1 2024 earnings Citigroup Q1 2024 earnings Wells Fargo Q1 2024 earnings https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| China's Crisis Is Sending A Warning To The World | 12 Apr 2024 | 00:18:22 | |
Yesterday's US CPI reignited the fierce debate over a possibly sticky inflation future. China just ended it by reminding the world of its stubborn deflationary present with the third largest monthly CPI drop in the last twenty years. Producer prices also decline which is a solidly disinflationary signal for China and the world regardless of the latest consumer price numbers from elsewhere. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis China's NBS Consumer prices press release China's NBS Producer prices press release https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| What Steel Prices CRASHING Means for the Global Economy | 16 Aug 2024 | 00:16:37 | |
Steel prices are plunging, down a quarter since May at lows not seen since 2016. The chairman of the world's largest producer just said he expects it to get much worse in terms of prices and for industry. The implications are far broader than steel or China. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg World’s Biggest Steel Producer Warns of ‘Severe’ Industry Crisis Bloomberg ArcelorMittal Cries Foul on Steel Exports From China Bloomberg Iron Ore Takes Fresh Hit as Concerns Over Global Glut Exact Toll S&P Global China's steel output remains strong; downstream outlook still dim https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| New CPI Numbers Shock The Market! (Everything You Need To Know) | 11 Apr 2024 | 00:18:39 | |
Another CPI comes in higher than expected. This isn't some harbinger of an impending price spiral, just the regular fluctuations in consumer prices driven largely by oil. It has stirred up inflation fears anyway in large part because it seems as if the CPI and especially the core rate is now stuck at a structurally higher rate. History cautions when making those assumptions. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Goldman Sachs Makes MASSIVE Bet On Lower Interests Rates | 10 Apr 2024 | 00:17:48 | |
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW Hawkish policymakers, oil prices, higher for longer all over the media. Why are banks, not just central banks, already cutting rates? Contrary to what you hear in the mainstream, policymakers aren't actually all that hawkish. More importantly, global markets are pricing more assertively for fragility not soft landing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Goldman’s Marcus Frontruns Fed With Rate Cut on Savings Account Bloomberg State Street Sees Half-Point Fed Rate Cut as Soon as June Bloomberg Fed’s Kashkari Floats Possibility of No Rate Cuts This Year Bloomberg Fed’s Kashkari Sees Two Rate Cuts in 2024, Potentially Just One Reuters Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say NFIB March 2024 report https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Oil Is About To Break The Economy | 09 Apr 2024 | 00:19:02 | |
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW What if gold and oil are actually trading on the same outcome? Despite popular misconceptions, a non-economic oil shock like the one we're currently experiencing is NOT inflationary. On the contrary, history shows it will almost certainly be disinflationary because of the negative impact it has on the economy. And if that impact is negative enough, that will lead to sharply lower interest rates - the very factor driving gold to all-time highs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg The Gold Market Hunts for Answers Behind Bullion’s Sudden Surge Bernanke, Gertler, Stock Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Oil inflation Fears Going Viral (Everything You Need to Know) | 08 Apr 2024 | 00:17:52 | |
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW Oil is up sharply as fears over a wider conflict in the Middle East continue to rise. Quite predictably, this has raised widespread concerns over renewed "inflation." But we just did this six months ago and that example shows what we should expect today and going forward. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| We Need to Talk About the Job Market Data ASAP | 07 Apr 2024 | 00:17:40 | |
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW Yet another blowout payroll number from the government. Even though the BLS's "other" employment estimates managed a sharp rebound on the month, the difference between the two has become intolerable. How do we know which one might be closer to reality? We make a bunch of comparisons to see which way the weight of evidence falls. Also, every month has 28 days. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| It's Over: China's Currency Has Never Done This Before | 05 Apr 2024 | 00:19:05 | |
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW China's currency trading was wild yesterday, CNY moving just a few pips above the PBOC's daily limit. But then, the country closed down for the rest of this week leaving the whole world hanging as to what might happen next. Will yuan breach the daily band for the first time ever? Might the central bank relent like it usually does? More important than those, what does all this mean? The simplest "equation" in all economics holds the answer. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Japan Times Ex-finance official who warned of Japan's 2022 yen intervention sounds alarm https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Things Are Escalating, Quickly... | 04 Apr 2024 | 00:15:59 | |
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW Monday's "strong" ISM manufacturing data sparked a whirlwind of inflation fear(mongering). Today's far more important and weak ISM non-manufacturing data barely took any notice. Why is that? The answer is obvious even though the latter series on services is far more important for the overall economy especially since these estimates for it are highly correlated with so many other critical variables. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg June Fed Rate-Cut Odds Dip Below 50% After Strong ISM Data https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| We Need to Talk About the Bond Market Immediately | 03 Apr 2024 | 00:18:06 | |
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW To hear everyone tell it, bond yields are surging. Losses in the marketplace are "piling up" allegedly because hawkish central bankers will be fighting inflation a lot longer than previously hoped since the economy is so insatiably red hot. Except, none of that is true; starting with bond yields. And we can check our work, too, in a way that actually touches the real world. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Bond Market Sees Fewer Rate Cuts Than Fed, Deepening Losses Bloomberg Fed’s Daly Says Three Rate Cuts Is Reasonable Baseline for 2024 https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Gold Surges To All-Time Highs (Everything You Need to Know) | 02 Apr 2024 | 00:19:23 | |
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW Gold continues to soar, hitting almost as many record highs as stocks. And that's a problem because unlike stocks gold tends to be a useful indicator and warning sign. There are three theories as to what's behind the golden surge. Here we examine the evidence and consistency of all three. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRB Chair Jerome Powell Testimony to Senate Banking Committee March 7, 2024 CommercialEdge March 2024 Office Report https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| How Bank Reserves Affect Liquidity (Macro Alf) | 01 Apr 2024 | 00:20:50 | |
It is critical to understand what is happening in China first of all. The country is suffering from a confluence of longer-term structural imbalances butting up against near-term strategies ostensibly aimed at minimizing the fallout. The risks are complex though in broad terms pretty easy to sketch out. They include potential impacts on global liquidity, one of the most misunderstood topics in finance. If are interested in Alf’s Macro Investment Fund, drop him an email for information at this address: fund@themacrocompass.com Alf’s Course: TheMacroCompass.substack.com Other Courses: https://themacrocompass.org/courses/ Eurodollar University's conversations w/Alfonso Peccatiello https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| This Was the Point of NO return (CPI Breakdown) | 15 Aug 2024 | 00:17:43 | |
This was supposed to be all about "inflation" and instead everything is coming up jobs - including the latest CPI report. From Home Depot's most recent admission to now US refiners taking drastic steps to avoid getting caught with an energy glut (yep, that's right), the entire economy flipped from "sticky inflation" to Uh-Oh over employment. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg It’s Inflation Week in the US. But Everyone’s Talking About Jobs Home Depot CNBC Home Depot expects sales to weaken as consumers grow more cautious Bloomberg Oil Refiners in US Slow Down, Stoking Global Crude Glut Worries https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| You Won't Believe What European Banks Are Doing | 31 Mar 2024 | 00:18:49 | |
CHECK OUT EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE What is it with banks these days? Well, this time it may not be the bank themselves. According to the latest data from the ECB, European depositories are lending loads to non-banks over there. That's not a good sign and in this video you'll see why that is - and why it isn't just Europeans who should be seriously concerned. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Manual on MFI statistics ECB November 2023 Financial Stability Review https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| The Recession Is Here, And It's Worse Than You Think | 29 Mar 2024 | 00:20:47 | |
We keep getting more and more recession confirmation. Soft data comes in ugly and is easily corroborated by hard estimates from a variety of sources. The only part missing is the layoffs. Where are they? Part of the answer comes from hoarding, though the more important piece is not what you might think. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Japan Is Now Threatening MAJOR Intervention Against The Dollar | 28 Mar 2024 | 00:18:23 | |
The Japanese are really getting bothered by weakness in the yen. But where is it coming from, and what might be done about it? Officials in Tokyo are threatening to intervene again, but a review of past interventions shows not just the folly of any attempt, better yet some useful clues about what's really happening here. It isn't Japan. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Japan Amps Up Intervention Threat as Yen Hits Lowest Since 1990 NYT Sept 1992 Agility Counts in Currency Chaos Japan Ministry of Finance Foreign Exchange Operations https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| What Stage Of The Recession Are We In | 27 Mar 2024 | 00:19:43 | |
As more signs of instability pile up around the world but also coming from inside the US. Those are evidence for the continuing downside to the supply shock, the same cycle, not a soft landing. What are the key differences? Employing a few critical datapoints it's easy to see how much of a divergence there already has been and what that likely means for the upcoming period. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Latest Banking Data PLUNGES At The Same Time China Did This | 26 Mar 2024 | 00:18:57 | |
Something just hit the US banking system. Tons of cash gone from their balance sheet seemingly as they reallocate their assets. At the same time this is going on, the dollar has surged against primarily Asian currencies rocking those countries and leading to several government backlashes. Are these all related? The answer appears to be, yes. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Target Gives MASSIVE Warning Of Consumer Behavior | 25 Mar 2024 | 00:18:45 | |
The bedrock assumption for a soft landing in the US is continued consumer spending. The economy around the world really needs Americans to keep spending at close to the same rate. Instead, more evidence is coming in that they are just out of gas. In addition to macro statistics, more retailers are confirming the downturn and no longer just those who sell to lower-income consumers. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Target Introduces New Brand, dealworthy, Featuring Low Prices on Everyday Basics https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| CLO Markets are on the Collapsing (liquidations starting) | 24 Mar 2024 | 00:20:34 | |
It isn't prospective rate cuts, the downward bias in market interest rates comes from real risks in the global system. The biggest of those are US commercial real estate (CRE) and China. Key developments in both show that the situation is fragile and that difficulties are serious even if playing out mainly in the shadows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Real Estate Pain Is Showing Up in an Obscure Investment Product BloombergTV with Carson Block Bloomberg Short Seller Block Says He’s Even ‘More Bearish’ on Blackstone Mortgage Trust SCMP China Vanke secures US$194 million loan from Industrial Bank in brief respite for troubled property developer https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Swiss Central Bank Just Sent a Warning to the World | 22 Mar 2024 | 00:18:35 | |
Few were expecting anything more than a few franc sales from the Swiss National Bank today. Instead, the SNB boldly cut its ST rate specifically because it knows what's coming from around the rest of the world. And that doesn't mean inflation in Switzerland or anywhere else. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SNB Monetary Policy Assessment March 21, 2024 SNB Introductory remarks, news conferencehttps://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/speeches-restricted/ref_20240321_tjnmslanmar Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs ECB Combined monetary policy decisions and statement 7 March 2024 https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Everything You Need to Know About The Fed Report | 21 Mar 2024 | 00:18:32 | |
A wild FOMC meeting triggered by a rejiggering of the dots. Those don't really matter except as insight into how confused policymakers have become. Why are they confused? Rate hikes don't appear to be working, so they are having a hard time deciding what should happen next. Markets aren't so conflicted, only about the likeliest path for ST rates. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC March 2024 Policy Statement FOMC March 2024 Summary of Economic Projections CSPAN: President Biden Campaign Remarks March 8, 2024 https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| It finally happened after 17 years… will they survive | 20 Mar 2024 | 00:19:43 | |
Well, they did it. The Bank of Japan ended its NIRP and YCC, raising its call money rate for the first time in forever. That's not the issue. Why they did it is open for debate, one that right now is taking place across markets. It's not going well for the rate-hikers. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BoJ Statement March 19, 2024 https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Record Amounts of Capital Urgently Fleeing China (Everything You Need to Know) | 14 Aug 2024 | 00:19:01 | |
While the world was distracted by US recession provoking a Japanese stock market crash, China was continuing to meltdown. In just the past few days the country reported: a record drop in foreign money fleeing China; the first contraction in bank lending to the real economy in nineteen years; record low market interest rates; and the PBOC going off the rails trying to derail that bond rally. And we thought China was in rough shape...last month. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg China Goes to New Extreme in Crackdown on Bond-Market Frenzy Bloomberg China Regulators Tell Some Rural Banks to Renege on Bond Trades Bloomberg China Brokers Curb Bond Trading Amid PBOC Warnings on Rally Bloomberg China Asked State Banks to Keep Record of Government Bond Buyers https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Global Central Banks Are Meeting This Week (Here’s What You Need To Know) | 19 Mar 2024 | 00:22:32 | |
The Fed. Japanese destiny. Down Under. The Old Lady, Mexico, Brazil, and the Czech Republic. And those are just the start. A ton of central banks are going to be deliberating just this week. And while their policies don't really mean much to the economy, they can impact markets in the short run while also providing some somewhat useful clues about where the world really stands. Here's what to look for as it unfolds. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Bank Term Funding Program Blows Up In Final Minutes... | 18 Mar 2024 | 00:18:15 | |
The Fed shut down the BTFP, but just before it closed billions in loans were made to banks over the repeated objections of policymakers. Officials have been pushing depositories toward the Discount Window to the point even the FHLB system is dissuading its members from using its own advances as emergency liquidity. Yet, the last-minute BTFP indicates banks just aren't doing it with some substantial implications. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre FHFA FHLBank System at 100: Focus On the Future FHFA Fact Sheet https://www.eurodollar.university | |||
| Chinese banks CLOSING Loan Books Most On Record | 17 Mar 2024 | 00:19:41 | |
China just held its National People's Congress amidst more economic and financial turmoil than at any time in its modern history. Two things quickly became clear: Xi Jinping continues to insulate himself politically from any potential fallout; his government has no idea what to be about it. The latest data from Chinese banks and the country's housing market highlight the gravity of the situation and how little policies are helping. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis People's Daily Graphic and Text Database China State TV The Opening Meeting of the Second Session of the 14th NPC Bloomberg China Vanke’s Dollar Bonds Signal Fears of Default Down the Road Bloomberg China Sets GDP Goal That Needs Policy Support ‘From All Fronts’ https://www.eurodollar.university | |||