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DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough recap a relatively flat market week shortened by Thursday’s Juneteenth federal holiday. In their rundown of stocks (1:00), fixed income (2:20) and commodities (4:30), Eric and Mark note there was little market volatility despite ongoing trade policy uncertainty and the Israel-Iran conflict. Gold, a safe-haven asset, was actually down on the week. Over in Macro Land (7:01), the week’s prints included retail sales, import prices and jobless claims, with the market seeming to shrug in response to each release. The big news event of the week was Wednesday’s FOMC meeting (11:38), with the Fed keeping rates steady. Eric and Mark discuss the details of the FOMC officials’ decision to sit on their hands and the prospects for cuts this year. Next week’s prints (17:19) will include PMI manufacturing and services, housing prices, consumer confidence, durable goods and inflation. This episode was recorded June 20, 2025, before market close.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel June 13 survey a mostly quiet week in markets (0:50) amid encouraging CPI and PPI news (5:30), albeit obscured by ongoing uncertainty over trade tariffs. Among other macro news (12:48), Ryan Kimmel points to a news report that companies appear to be absorbing tariff costs rather than passing them along in the form of price hikes to consumers. Looking ahead to the June 18 FOMC meeting (18:58), Jeff Mayberry notes Fed Funds rate futures are pricing in the first of just two cuts in 2025 for Sept. 17.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough sort through a positive week ended June 6 for stocks (0:59) and commodities (4:36) amid higher yields and volatility for a still range-bound bond market (2:01). After macro news (5:46) including sub-50 ISM manufacturing and services prints for May, nonfarm payrolls for May pushed stock prices and bond yields higher on Friday. Fed funds futures (17:26) on Friday were pricing in one to two cuts for the year, with the first likely cut to come at the Sept. 17 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. As labor and price data stand at present, Jeff Mayberry says, “I think we get no cuts this year.” Jeff and Mark will be looking to the Federal Reserve’s annual Economic Policy Symposium Aug. 21-23 and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at that event for guidance on the course of central bank monetary policy for the remainder of the year. Looking ahead to the June 9-13 week (19:27), Jeff and Mark will be looking for the May CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday and the University of Michigan’s consumer inflation expectation survey on Friday.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel run down the Memorial Day-shortened week of May 27-30 and a mixed-bag for the markets amid May’s volatility. The S&P 500 had a relatively calm week and pretty positive month (00:32), fixed income had a positive week to cap off a month of gyrations (2:36) and commodities had a rough final session to conclude an up-and-down May (4:26). Over in Macro Land (6:11), Eric and Ryan’s review includes a look at some consumer confidence reports buoyed by the trade détente; a PCE print closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal; Fed meeting minutes that point to staying the course on rates; and durable goods orders, with Ryan noting a possibly negative signal in the data. Looking ahead (19:25), next week’s prints will include ISM manufacturing and services reports and the Fed’s Beige Book, but the market’s focus will be on Friday’s jobs report.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey a rough week for stocks and bonds ended May 23, 2025. Those losses followed the May 16 announcement of Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. to Aa1 from Aaa on the rating agency’s outlook for the federal deficit to rise to nearly 9% of GDP by 2035 from 6.4% in 2024. Eric and Mark begin with a dive into fixed income markets (0:30), which saw Treasury yields rise on the long end of the curve. The yield on the long bond Wednesday through Friday closed above previous resistance of 5.00%. “With these concerning fiscal deficits, investors seem to expect more of a term premium,” Eric Dhall notes. “I think that’s the reason for higher rates on the long end of the Treasury curve – as we’ve been saying for a long time at DoubleLine.”

Every sector of the S&P 500 ended the week (9:18) in the red, led by energy as speculators considered the possibility of crude oil production increases by Saudi Arabia in the wake of closed-door meetings by President Trump with leaders of that country as well as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Notwithstanding the week’s losses, Eric Dhall notes that all these sectors remained in the green on a month-to-date basis. Commodities (11:47) were up, led by precious metals but also supported by gains in copper, considered a macro bellwether.

For the week’s macro news (13:00), Mark Kimbrough observes a weak Leading Economic Indicator report and an uptrend in continuing jobless claims. However, he also points to “decent expansions” in the S&P Global U.S. PMI manufacturing and services surveys for May 12-21, the first survey period since the Trump administration paused tariffs. For the week ahead (17:40), Eric and Mark will have on their radar the OPEC+ meeting, durable goods orders, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report, the second estimate of first quarter GDP, personal income and spending, and the PCE index.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel chart the powerful market reactions for the week ended May 16 surrounding Monday’s joint decision by Washington and Beijing to move from trade war to trade détente. Stocks (0:34) rallied broadly across all sectors of the S&P 500 except for a light decline in health care. As rates moved higher across the Treasury curve (4:05), traditional investment grade sectors in fixed income posted negative returns while emerging markets debt led in the winners’ circle. Commodities (6:03) declined with industrial metals and livestock diverging higher. On the macro front (7:23), markets welcomed a raft of reports including April consumer and producer prices and PCE-input import prices showing inflation moving in the right direction.

For their Topic of the Week (17:51), Jeff and Ryan delve into the implications for markets, in particular, for the U.S. dollar and other currencies, if the Federal Reserve were to engage in yield curve control as a means to manage the government’s ballooning debt service on the national debt. Among other aspects of this question, they examine the rare historical precedents of yield curve control by the Bank of Japan (2016-2023) and the Federal Reserve (1942-51). The latter case, however, was a mechanism to assist Washington in funding the Second World War and afterward persisted during the first years of Bretton Wood foreign exchange regime. Under Bretton Woods, the dollar was set to an exchange of $35 per ounce of gold with the currencies of America’s trading partners tied to the dollar – a vastly different world than today’s regime of free-floating fiat currencies.

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Eric Dhall discuss the week ended May 9, including a mixed bag for stocks (0:55), rates up across the board in fixed income (2:59) and commodities (4:12) largely up with the notable exception of agricultural products. Bitcoin (5:17) crossed back above $100,000. On the macro front, ISM services for April came in at 51.6, much better than the consensus estimate of 50.2. No surprise, the U.S. trade deficit for March worsened to -$140.5 billion as importers moved to front-run the imposition of tariffs by President Trump. 

For the Topic of the Week (8:23), Jeff and Eric covered Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee’s well anticipated decision to stand pat on monetary policy. The upshot from FOMC guidance and Powell’s press comments was the Fed, while seeing elevated risks to its mandates for price stability and full employment, does not know how tariffs and trade negotiations will play out in the economy. Jeff Mayberry suspects that if push comes to shove, the Fed likely will prioritize inflation fighting over full employment. Topping Jeff and Eric’s calendar for the week of May 12-16 (13:12) will be April consumer price index on Tuesday.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel (0:22) review markets and macro through the week ended May 2. “If you were a Rip van Winkle investor who went to sleep March 31 and woke up today, what would you find?” After the tariff-unleashed sell-offs, Eric notes Rip would find equities up across the major indices. Rates (4:97) moving higher farther out the yield curve led to lower returns in most of the fixed income universe for the month with bright spots being high yield corporates and bank loans. Commodities (6:57) were down more than 4% from March 31 through May 2, led by energy down 14%, with precious metals being the bright spot, up 6%, and gold up 3%.

Economic data (8:47) for the week, Ryan notes, “took more of a front stage compared to previous weeks that were dominated by tariffs.” Among those prints, he covers the JOLTS report, with weaker-than-expected job openings reported for March and a healthy balance between job openings and total unemployed workers. Consumer confidence has deteriorated due to concerns about tariffs. ISM manufacturing shows more contraction into recessionary territory. On a positive note, nonfarm payrolls showed improvement amid abating wage growth.

Looking to the week ahead (21:11), topping Eric and Ryan’s calendar will be the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Wednesday May 7 and Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s news conference. The futures markets have priced in only a 3% probability of a cut to the target federal funds rate. The news conference promises to be more interesting. “Everybody is going to be watching Jay Powell to see how he tap-dances around the questions that he’s going to get regarding his job.”

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap the markets for the week of April 21-25, noting how the post-April 2 volatility has made it seem like a very long month. Equities (0:53) were up on the week, with the trade stories of 2024 on growth, value and tech putting in an appearance. The bond market (2:21) had a pretty quiet week while the Agg continued to have a pretty good run in the new year. Commodities (3:33) were flat. Jeff and Ryan note that the markets seemed to dodge another volatile week after President Donald Trump walked back his calls for removal of the Fed chair. Over in Macro Land (7:54), they look at mixed April prelim manufacturing and services PMI numbers, consistent initial jobless claims and a consumer sentiment score that is usually only seen in crises. The week in Fedspeak (15:48) had a pair of Fed governors each addressing a side of the agency’s inflation-employment mandate. Next week (18:34) will bring prints including JOLTS numbers, a Q1 GDP estimate (very low) and inflation data.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review (0:05) the abbreviated market week ended April 17. It was a week characterized by lessened price volatility than in the first two weeks of the month and somewhat positive macro prints. As stocks ended lower (0:48), value stocks and the equal-weighted S&P 500 posted gains, diverging from declines for growth stocks and the market-cap-weighted S&P 500. Fixed income (2:00) had a positive week in high yield corporates and emerging markets as well as the investment grade, government and government-guaranteed sectors. Commodities (3:00) caught a bounce.

On the macro front (4:39), Eric and Mark walked through import prices, retail sales and industrial data, finding some positive news in the readings, but they cautioned to wait for May data, given the as-yet unclear adjustments under way in response to Trump administration trade policies and reactions from U.S. trading partners. Looking to the week ahead (14:24), among other reports, Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for the Leading Economic Index (Monday), S&P Global manufacturing and services (Wednesday) and durable goods orders (Thursday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel April 11, 2025, look into the extraordinary intra-week turbulence (0:48) behind a moderate weekly gain in the S&P 500, an almost no-place-to-hide week for bonds (4:41) and commodities (9:57) showing weakening demand in industrial inputs as WTI crude pierced intraweek below $56/barrel.

Overwhelmed by tariff-driven sentiment in the wake of Liberation or Obliteration Day, the markets paid little attention to the week’s backward-looking macro prints (11:24), including constructive March reports for the consumer and producer price indexes. For their review of the week’s Fed Speak (20:23), Jeff and Ryan single out comments on Thursday by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee. In a fireside chat hosted by the Economic Club of New York, Goolsbee said tariffs risk “a stagflationary shock.” This complicates the Fed’s achievement of both its full employment and price stability mandates. “There’s not a generic playbook,” Goolsbee said, “for how a central bank should respond to a stagflationary shock.”

The abbreviated April 14-17 market week (22:44) appears to be relatively quiet in terms of scheduled macro news. Jeff and Ryan will be on the lookout for import prices (Tuesday) and retail sales and industrial production (Wednesday).

Lifting a line from T.S. Eliot, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall surveys a cruel start to April for stocks (0:23) and other risk assets, as shock over Washington-imposed tariffs and fears of a trade war sent the broad equity market into a correction and tech into bear land. The sharp worsening in growth outlooks also erased most of commodities’ gains YTD (2: 07). Prices on WTI and Brent crude plunging below resistance levels the “double whammy” of worsening growth expectations and the stunning decision of OPEC+ to triple oil production relative to increase expectations. The resulting flight to safety (8:29) rewarded investors in high-grade fixed income securities with price gains in U.S. Treasuries, Agency mortgage-backed securities and investment grade corporate bonds. Analyst Mark Kimbrough (13:04) goes through the week’s macro data, including unemployment readings for March that might have buoyed risk markets, but for forward-looking macro fears swamping the backward-looking data prints.

Turning to the Federal Reserve (24:51), Eric Dhall notes Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is in a tough spot. The markets want four fed funds cuts this year, but Powell faces prospects of both labor deterioration and higher inflation. “I think the Fed is going to sit on its hands in May,” Eric says, “and not do anything knee-jerk unless we get some really massive data prints.” Among the data prints for the week of April 7(33:00), Mark Kimbrough will be on the lookout for the Fed’s report on consumer credit borrowing (Monday), the NFIB small business optimism report (Tuesday), the March consumer price index (Thursday) and March producer price index (Friday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap the week of March 24-28, with markets reacting to new macro prints and a tariff regime scheduled to be unveiled by the White House on April 2, which President Donald Trump has dubbed “Liberation Day.” Stocks were down, roiled by tariff talk; bonds were no place to hide (2:11); gold continued to shine, flirting with crossing the $3,100 mark (3:30); and commodities were up, lifted by precious metals (3:49). Over in Macro Land (5:56), the week included a PMI mixed bag, manufacturing contractionary/services expansionary; the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March, with outlook deteriorating (6:53); an upside surprise in durable goods orders (7:55); and the week closed with a sticky PCE inflation number that raises questions about interest rate cuts (9:23). Friday also delivered the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which expresses a lot of anxiety about recession risk and inflation levels (14:34). Next week will bring Liberation Day, and a possible reordering of the global trade regime, as well as Friday’s jobs report (16:40).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough cover the week ended March 21 in stocks and fixed income, then turn to a macro picture characterized by “kind of bearish” retail sales, fast-growing manufacturing, recessionary warnings from the “broken clock” that has been the Leading Economic Index and an uncertain Fed.

With the futures market pricing in three cuts to the fed funds rate in 2025, Eric Dhall cautions against that expectation. Fed officials, he says, seem “befuddled,” with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his March 19 news conference repeatedly invoking the “uncertainty” of current economic landscape. Mr. Dhall notes a decline in the doves in the FOMC’s dot plot even as FOMC members were expecting economic growth to slow. Mark Kimbrough agrees, saying, “Uncertainty makes sense. Uncertainty, is the new buzzword” at the Fed. “They’re trying to look through the impacts of these tariffs, but they don’t know.”

Looking ahead to the March 24-28 week, Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for S&P Global PMI readings, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller house price indexes, Conference Board consumer confidence and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel survey the markets, including a week (March 10-14) that pushed the stock market (0:40) into one of its fastest corrections on record. Jeff notes (3:10) bonds turned in a flattish to slightly positive week after five days of volatility. Commodities (4:46) were up slightly, with energy diverging into the red.

Surveying macro news (7:40), Ryan covers softer-than-expected consumer price and producer price readings for February while cautioning about the hotter price inputs into the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index favored by the Federal Reserve for inflation tracking. The Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey (13:54) for January came in higher than expectations, with 7.74 million job openings and an improvement to 2.1% in the quits rate, a nine-month high. “I take this as a sign that employee confidence has improved a bit, but this is lagged data before we saw the sell-off in equities, which can impact sentiment,” Ryan notes. More germane, he says, is possibly the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, whose preliminary numbers for March show a marked rise in inflation expectations.

Looking ahead (18:59) to the week of March 17-21, while the Fed is expected to stand pat on interest rates on Wednesday, Jeff and Ryan will be on the lookout for any changes in guidance by the Federal Open Market Committee or from Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s news conference. They also will be watching for February retail sales (Monday), import prices (Tuesday), and jobless claims and the Leading Economic Index (Thursday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey a volatile March 3-7 week for equities (0:32) and fixed income (3:06) amid sentiment cross currents over the possibility of trade tariffs while commodities (4:54) posted gains. “Markets have tended to overreact” to the on-again, off-again news about tariffs, Jeff Mayberry says. “All that seems to be weighing on sentiment.” Their review of the week’s macro news (6:23) covers among other items ISM manufacturing and services surveys and a raft of labor market prints, including nonfarm payrolls and unemployment. The household survey, Mark Kimbrough notes, shows “signs of degradation no matter how you slice it.” The week (18:23) of March 10-14 promises key inflation readings, including consumer price index for February (Wednesday) and producer price index for the same month (Thursday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap the market week of Feb. 24-28. They also review performance after the first full month under Trump 2.0 and look at the winners and losers year-to-date among equities, bonds and commodities. Over in Macro Land (7:09), Jeff and Ryan run down a pretty busy week of prints, including softening consumer sentiment, lackluster home sales (8:43) and encouraging PCE inflation data (11:08).

Next week (18:06) will bring payroll numbers, ISM PMI manufacturing and services prints and the Fed’s Beige Book on current economic conditions.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough recap a Presidents’ Day-shortened market week that included a tick down for equities (00:46), positivity in fixed income (3:32) and rising commodities buoyed by gold (4:52). Over in Macro Land (6:15), they look at the FOMC meeting minutes, which include Fed officials talking about pausing QT and assessing inflation amid policy uncertainty, and the least negative LEI reading since September 2022 (7:58). The composite S&P Global U.S. manufacturing and services PMI releases (9:25) provide food for thought, including chief business economist commentary that “The upbeat mood seen among U.S. businesses at the start of the year has evaporated, replaced with a darkening picture of heightened uncertainty, stalling business activity and rising prices.” Next week (16:22) will bring prints on the housing market, consumer confidence and PCE inflation numbers.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel survey stock (0:38), bond (1:54) and commodity (3:53) markets for Feb. 10-14, a week that ended in the green across all three asset classes but was punctuated by a whipsaw in bonds around inflation headlines. Their review of the week’s macro news (4:25) focused on the hotter-than-expected January CPI report, although Ryan Kimmel noted that 14 of the last 15 January CPI readings exceeded consensus forecasts.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review a flattish stock market (0:40), a decline in bond yields (1:56) and stronger commodities (3:41) for the week ended Feb. 7. Then they turn to the week’s macro news (4:40), which was dominated by a raft of labor market reports as well as an expansionary print on the long-languishing ISM manufacturing survey. “We’ll temporarily ring a bell and say a 26-month streak of prints below 50 came to an end in January,” Mark says. “I hope that doesn’t get revised away next month.” In contrast to the week’s jobs-heavy news, the week of Feb. 10-14 (19:20) will turn to inflation, including January CPI and PPI reports.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel dissect the week of Jan. 27-31, 2025. The week saw the S&P 500 (0:33) suffer a tech selloff, bond prices (4:30) tick higher and commodities (5:26) lower with precious metals moving higher. The week’s macro news (6:30) was dominated by the Federal Reserve, whose hawkish-seeming policy guidance, followed by softer language during Fed Chair Powell’s news conference, whipsawed markets. Macro prints (9:31) on durable goods, GDP and jobless class were nonevents, but softish readings Friday on the Personal Consumption Expenditures index and the Employment Cost Index, Eric and Ryan noted, give some comfort to the Fed. Looking ahead to the week of Feb. 3-7, Eric and Ryan will have nonfarm payrolls due Friday at the top of their watch list.

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffrey Mayberry and Eric Dhall review the market week of Jan. 21-24, shortened by the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday and overshadowed by the launch of Trump 2.0. Fixed income and the S&P 500 saw mostly green, although energy stocks were impacted after comments by President Trump on oil prices. Commodities were down on the week, led by a declining energy sector. Over in Macro Land (4:36), President Trump’s swearing in and flurry of executive orders kicked off the week, with the U.S. dollar dinged by the absence of Day One tariffs. The otherwise light macro news week also included a negative Leading Economic Index number; initial jobless claims, which could be impacted going forward by the Southern California wildfires; and mixed PMI prints. In addition, Fed watchers remained very skeptical of another rate cut arriving soon. Next week’s prints (9:46) will include home prices, an advanced fourth quarter GDP estimate and the latest PCE number, but the big event will be the first FOMC meeting under the new term of President Trump, who has already questioned the Fed’s stance on interest rates.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough tackle a positive run for the markets the week of Jan. 13-17 heading into a busy weekend of NFL playoffs and Monday’s Inauguration Day. They kick things off with a look at equities (00:56), with all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 Index up on the week, then break down positive runs for fixed income (2:50) and commodities (4:31), supported by a big move by WTI crude. Rosy sentiments bloomed in Macro Land (5:46), including an optimistic small-business survey and a series of inflation prints that could be read as positive. Next week (18:32) will bring an LEI update as well as jobless claims and PMI prints. This episode was recorded Jan. 17, 2025, before market close.

Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel survey the week ended Jan. 10, beginning with stock (0:41) and bond (2:06) markets in the red on stronger-than-expected December payrolls, slashing fed funds rate cut expectations. Commodity prices surged, led by crude oil on the prospect of hardened U.S. sanctions against Russian energy exports. On the macroeconomic front (5:15), Jeff and Ryan delve into the payroll and unemployment data and see markets pricing for a “no landing” scenario. Looking to the week ahead (9:17), on their radar will be December readings of the Producer Price Index (Tuesday) and Consumer Price Index (Wednesday) as well as retail sales and jobless claims (Thursday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffrey Mayberry and Eric Dhall kick off the new year with a rundown of 2024’s and December’s performance while also recapping the holiday week of Dec. 30-Jan. 3, naming the winners and losers (or laggards) in stocks, fixed income (3:30) and commodities (7:04). Over in Macro Land (10:18), Jeff and Eric catch up on recent news, including prints for homes prices and jobless claims as well as cap goods and ISM manufacturing numbers that raise speculation that some businesses might be stocking up in preparation for possible Trump tariffs. Next week (14:49) will bring a heavy dose of macro, including JOLTS, ISM services, payroll, consumer credit and trade sales and inventory numbers.

In their last Minutes podcast for 2024, DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau review year-to-date and Dec. 16-20 returns for stocks (0:36), fixed income (3:16) and commodities (6:17) before taking up the week’s macro news (7:10). For the Topic of the Week (12:22), Jeff and Sam unpack the Dec. 18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference and the immediate impacts on financial markets and longer-term monetary expectations. 

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey a Friday-the-Thirteenth week for stocks (:033) and bonds (1:56) with commodities managing to end the week ended Dec. 13, 2024, in positive territory despite a rally in the dollar. For the week’s macro news (5:48), Mark Kimbrough notes an improvement in small business sentiment on hopes of lower taxes, easing regulation and inflation relief. He also discusses in-line consumer price index and stronger-than-expected producer price index readings for November. For their Topic of the Week (16:00), Eric Dhall discusses DoubleLine’s inflation model, which forecasts inflation in the 2% zone in 2025, provided energy prices remain tame. Looking ahead (18:47) to the week of Dec. 16-20,  in addition to an expected rate cut and release of economic projections by Federal Open Market Committee (Wednesday), Eric and Mark will be on watch for S&P Global purchasing manager surveys for the manufacturing and services sectors of the U.S. economy (Monday), retail sales (Tuesday), third GDP estimate for 3Q2024 (Thursday) and personal income, personal spending and PCE price index (Friday).

After reviewing stocks (0:48), bond (2:43) and commodities (4:26), plus bitcoin (5:17) topping $100,000, DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau unpack the past two weeks’ macro news (6:10). ISM manufacturing, payroll and jobs data suggestive, Jeff says, suggest that “maybe the Fed is going to be able to do the soft landing.” Turning to federal funds rate probabilities (12:27), future contracts are pricing in 3½ cuts through the end of 2025, inferring Sam notes more restrained policy than suggested to date in Fed guidance. Looking ahead to the Dec. 9-13 market week, topping their watch list will be the November CPI report, due Wednesday – the last CPI print before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Dec. 18.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review a positive run in the markets for the week of Nov. 18-22. The S&P Index (00:33) inched up, supporting likely healthy returns for the month and year; fixed income (2:09) was also positive, with all components of the Agg rising; and the broad commodities market (3:54) was up, with gold marking a strong week. A light week in Macro Land (5:04) included a mixed picture for initial and continuing jobless claims, a “warning” signal framing for the Conference Board’s LEI and some post-election U.S. PMI numbers. It was also a light week for Fedspeak (11:26), with the odds for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December still basically a coin flip. Next week’s (12:03) data will include home prices, personal income and spending, and the October PCE print. This episode was recorded Nov. 22, 2024, before market close.

Minutes is taking next week off but will return with weekly coverage Dec. 6, including a recap of November monthly market performance. Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey the Nov. 11-15 week for stocks (0:57), with the Trump-buoyed energy and financial sectors alone of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to post gains; fixed income (2:40) mostly lower on amid rising rates; and commodities lower (4:20), with energy prices perhaps reflecting the “drill, baby, drill” mindset of the president-elect. For the week’s macro news (6:05), Mark Kimbrough dives into an in-line CPI report for the month of October, a hotter-than-expected PPI report and, in his opinion, some “quite entertaining” retail sales revisions. Jeff Mayberry notes that remarks by Jerome Powell (18:55) showing the Fed chairman in no hurry to cut rates clearly weighed on the federal funds futures market. For their Topic of the Week (20:55), Jeff and Mark answer a listener’s question about whether the steep climb in 10- and 30-year Treasury yields might signal that deficit- and debt-addicted Washington is heading for its own Liz Truss-type reckoning. In 2022, then-UK Prime Minister Truss proposed an unfunded budget. That sent gilt yields soaring and cut short Truss’s tenure at 10 Down Street. Looking to the week ahead (24:51), Jeff and Mark will be on the lookout for jobless claims on Thursday and the S&P Global purchasing managers surveys for the manufacturing and services sectors of the U.S. economy.

In their review of the Nov. 4-8 market week, DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau cover election-turbocharged stocks (0:48), volatile bonds (4:01) and modest gains in commodities (6:11). After a review of the week’s macro news (8:08), including a resilient services sector, Jeff and Sam dive into Thursday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting (10:14) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference. Looking ahead to the Nov. 11-15 week (20:11), they will be on watch for the October prints of the Consumer Price Index (Wednesday) and Producer Price Index (Thursday) as well as jobless claims (Thursday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the Oct. 28-Nov. 1 week of losses in stocks (1:45), led lower by tech and real estate; higher interest rates (4:03); and lower commodity prices (5:46), with energy getting pummeled. Their review of the week’s macro news (7:18) includes still strong housing prices, a strong GDP report for the third quarter and weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls. Looking to the week ahead (25:34), after the presidential and congressional elections, Thursday’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s news conference will be topping Sam and Mark’s items to watch.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough cover the Oct. 21-25 week in stocks (0:39), fixed income (1:57) and commodities (3:36), then turn to the week’s light macro calendar (4:31), which included a mostly “stable” and “positive” Beige Book release by the Federal Reserve. The week of Oct. 28-Nov. 1 will hold more potentially market-moving news (10:42), including third quarter GDP (Wednesday); employment cost index, personal spending and income, and the PCE (Thursday); and ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payrolls (Friday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau review for the week of Oct. 14-18 the stock (0:52) and bond (2:08) markets whose somewhat-muted volatility, according to Jeff, suggests investors are waiting for more labor market data and especially the outcome of the Nov. 5 presidential election. Commodities (4:01) ended in the red, led by a sharp decline in crude on reports Jerusalem will spare Iranian oil facilities in any reprisals over Tehran’s Oct. 1 missile attack against Israel. In a relatively quiet week on the macro front (5:54), retail sales came in stronger than expected. Looking ahead to the Oct. 21-25 week (11:02), Jeff and Sam will be on watch for jobless claims and purchasing manager index reports (Thursday) and durable goods orders (Friday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau on Oct. 11, 2024, review equity returns (0:44) at the start of the Q3 earnings season, a fixed income market (2:14) setting to higher yields and broad commodities (4:13) lower with energy up on geopolitical risk. The markets, they note, took the week’s macro news (5:57) in stride, including slightly higher-than-expected headline and core CPI reports for September. Jeff and Sam take note of a tempering (11:11) in market pricing of future fed funds rate cuts. Looking ahead to week of Oct. 14-18, they will be on the lookout (14:35) for export and import prices (Wednesday) and retail sales (Thursday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Macro Asset Analyst Mark Kimbrough begin their review of  the week of Sept. 30-Oct. 4 with a mixed stock market (0:42). The energy sector led the equity market, share prices buoyed by concerns of direct conflict between Israel and oil exporter Iran. The bond market (1:57) suffered a surge in yields. Commodities (3:39) marked gains, led by the energy complex. The week’s macro news (5:06) was dominated by “blockbuster” labor market news, with Mark Kimbrough fleshing out the details of Tuesday’s JOLTS and Friday’s upside surprises from the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment reports. Looking ahead to the week of Oct. 7-11 (24:40), Sam and Mark will be on watch for the NFIB Small Business Optimism report for September (due Tuesday) and the September Consumer Price Index (Thursday) and Producer Price Index (Friday) reports.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Quantitative Analyst Eric Dhall review market activity and macro news for the week of Sept. 23-27. Sam and Eric talk another strong run of almost daily historic highs for the S&P 500 Index (00:38), a flat week for fixed income (2:18) and a positive week for the Bloomberg Commodity Index despite struggling WTI crude (4:07). Over in Macro Land (6:09), they dive into a full week of prints that delivered few, if any, surprises, including the S&P Global PMI manufacturing and services reports, a resilient housing market, weakening consumer expectations and a Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index that could support further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Next week (16:48), Minutes will have a monthly markets wrap-up as well as coverage of labor market data. This episode was recorded Sept. 27, 2024, before market close.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Mayberry and Quantitative Analyst Eric Dhall track the Sept. 16-20 week market activity leading up to and in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s big rate cut on Wednesday. Jeff and Eric look at a positive week for stocks (00:43), a down week for the Agg while the 2s10s spread de-inverted (2:00) and rising commodities boosted by energy (4:01). Over in Macro Land (5:20), prints they look at include retail sales, production numbers and what they might mean as a recession herald, jobless claims, and the LEI and its increasingly questioned data signal. They then turn to the big macro news of the week (the year?) for the Topic of the Week (9:40): the Fed’s cut of 50 basis points (bps) to the federal funds rate. Jeff and Eric talk about 25-bp versus 50-bp cut predictions, review Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s press conference and his talk of Fed “recalibration,” go through the Federal Open Market Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections and whether the Fed can still stick the soft landing. Looking at next week (21:37), prints will include U.S. PMI numbers; housing prices; consumer confidence; and annual revisions to GDP, which might be impacted by questions about employment data. This episode was recorded Sept. 20, 2024, before market close.

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau cover the week of Sept. 9-13, 2024, which saw positive performances for stocks (0:30); fixed income (2:00), including a recessionary signal in the form of a Treasury yield curve de-inversion; and commodities (4:30). Topping the week’s macro news (5:35) were the August CPI and PPI reports. For their Topic of the Week (10:44), Jeff and Sam discuss the two-year Treasury as a leading indicator and the three-month T-bill as a coincident indicator of the federal funds target rate. Looking ahead (18:06) to the week of Sept. 16-20, apart from the FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell news conference on Wednesday, Jeff and Sam will be watching for retail sales on Tuesday as well as jobless claims and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, both on Thursday.

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau welcome back the NFL and then tackle a rough Sept. 2-6 run for the markets, including lots of red across equities (1:09); fixed income (3:04); and commodities (4:39), with even gold feeling ... Read More

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review a benign Aug. 26-30 week for stocks (1:04); bonds (3:26), taking note of a flattening Treasury yield curve; and commodities (7:34), with gold nearing $2500 per Troy ounce as markets ... Read More

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau cover an Aug. 19-23 week that brought gains for stocks (0:52) and a broad rally in fixed income (2:11) as well as a commodities market (5:15) that Friday ratified accommodative guidance from ... Read More

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau cover a positive Aug. 12-16 week for equities (0:49), fixed income (2:37) and commodities (5:27), supported by tame inflation readings (6:38) for July and surprising strength in retail sales (8:47). The macro ... Read More

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Macro Asset Allocation Analyst Mark Kimbrough comment on the whipsaws in stocks, bonds and commodities that by the Aug. 5-9 week’s end left markets little changed. The risk-off selloff that began Friday Aug. 2 ... Read More

DoubleLine Quantitative Analyst Eric Dhall and Macro Asset Allocation Analyst Mark Kimbrough cover a very exciting market week of July 29-Aug. 2, including a very rough Friday for stocks. Eric and Mark review the end-of-week selloff in stocks triggered by ... Read More

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Quantitative Analyst Eric Dhall survey the markets’ July 22-26 scoreboard for stocks (0:59), fixed income (3:01) and commodities (4:29) before turning to the week’s macro news (5:54). Macroland produced an unequivocally robust preliminary estimate ... Read More

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Quantitative Analyst Eric Dhall begin their review of the July 15-19 market week with returns in the red for stocks (0:52), bonds (2:18) and commodities (4:01). On the macro front (5:36), Eric Dhall ... Read More

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Macro Asset Allocation Analyst Mark Kimbrough end the week of July 8-12 with a roundup of stock (1:44), bond (4:06) and commodity (6:18) markets. Then they survey the week’s macro news (7:34), including a ... Read More

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Quantitative Analyst Eric Dhall Friday morning review the stock (1:08), bond (3:16) and commodity (5:44) markets for the week ended June 28, 2024. Then they discuss the week’s macro news (7:09), including further evidence ... Read More

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau cover the markets and macro news for the week of June 17-21, with markets closed Wednesday for the Juneteenth federal holiday. The S&P 500 Index was up on the week, boosted by ... Read More