Over the last two decades the seemingly ‘connecting’ phenomena of globalization and the internet have not made human communities more united. Seemingly paradoxically, aided by new technologies and interconnections, new forms of tribalism, superstition, in-group conformism, and out-group hatred have spread. Are these patterns of in-group solidarity and out-group distrust just the way humans are biologically wired to think?    In today’s episode, Jason Pack is joined by Harvey Whitehouse, Director of the Centre for the Study of Social Cohesion at Oxford University and author of Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World. Jason and Harvey explore: why cultivating a deeper understanding of evolutionary biology helps us explain the exact sociological appeal of strongmen like Putin and Trump; whether the decline in global religiosity has made societies less governable; and why the concept of identity fusion can shed light on how humans see their very essence of their being as part of a group and are willing to act collectively and selflessly to achieve what are perceived as shared interests.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/       Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Get Harvey’s book, Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World  https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/451443/inheritance-by-whitehouse-harvey/9781529152227     For more on Harvey and his amazing breadth of research: https://www.harveywhitehouse.com/     Listen back to Claire York in ‘Ep39. What Role, if any, is there for Empathy in Ordering the Disorder?’ https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/ddabc397bd974b61f558504f5fff388f  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To celebrate ONE MILLION downloads (thanks mega orderers!), Jason is joined by his best friend and lecturer at the Swedish Defence College, Karl Karim Zakhour.    The two ruminate on a host of topics including: the rather surprising interconnections between neo-liberal reforms in Sweden and Syria and what they tell us about our era of Global Enduring Disorder; whether 2004 was the worst year in geopolitics, but the best year to drink arak in Damascus; whether a certain kind of vulgar Hegelianism might just save us from the current disorder; and whether Kier Starmer might just have what it takes to be the antidote to the rise of the far-right authoritarians. The episode concludes with Jason taking stock of what he has learned from doing the Disorder pod by laying out his vision for the kind of global institutions needed to make a Global Enduring Order come into being while Karim explains why bottom-up organizing and more voluntary associations are also needed to help us Order the Disorder.     Links:     For more on Karim Zakhour and the Försvarshögskolan: https://www.fhs.se/sc/profile-page.html?identity=400.506a10b718cee96f44e50adb       The Origins of AGE: From States and Markets to Scientific Methods   (https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-13722-8_23)  What will the world look like in a hundred years? What will the study of international relations be like? This article lays out a vision of the future, at once familiar and unexpected.     Entrepreneurs of desperation: Young men and migration in interior Tunisia   (https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003353232-11/entrepreneurs-desperation-karim-zakhour)  The article looks at how young men in Tunisia try to navigate around harsh economic realities and dream of better lives.     While We Wait: Democratization, State and Citizenship among Young Men in Tunisia's Interior Regions  (https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A1456250&dswid=5417)  Why did the Tunisian democratic experiment fail? Based on long fieldwork this Ph. D thesis argues that democratization creates both opportunities and deep uncertainties that are amplified by economic failures and thus creates its own authoritarian reaction.      Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/       Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NATO is the longest lasting and most successful military alliance in human history. Today NATOs 75th Summit in Washington, DC comes to a close. What can NATO’s past tell us about  its probably future?     To commemorate this symbolic occasion, Jason is joined by Peter Apps. He is the author of ‘Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO’, a global defence columnist for Reuters, and a British Army reservist. He has reported from more than 20 countries over two decades, despite being paralyzed in a frontline car crash in Sri Lanka in 2006.     Jason and Peter discuss: Lord Ismay’s dictum; how has the Ukraine war affected the alliance?; how important are personalities to the alliance and how it works?; and how can NATO’s history, institutional biography, and legacy of diplomatic flexibility shed some light on how it might respond to the unprecedented challenges around it — from the rise of the far right in National Rally in France, the AfD in Germany, to the spectre of Trump — and the challenges posed to NATO by Putin, Xi, climate change, AI, and misinformation.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Peter’s book Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO: the "astonishingly fine history" of the world's most successful military alliance https://www.amazon.co.uk/Deterring-Armageddon-Biography-astonishingly-successful/dp/103540575X     Listen to Disorder Ep6. NATO: A Model for Ordering the Disorder? with Kori Shacke, Timothy Garton Ash, Jamie Shea and Charles Kupchan: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/9472a8b7d262dd9fb0cd9827e8947964     About the NATO Defense College Foundation: https://www.natofoundation.org/about-us  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

‘The people that walked in darkness have seen a great light; and they that dwell in the land of the shadow of Brexit, upon them hath the light shined.’ (Isaiah 9, v.2 with only one word changed) In retrospect, the melodies and lyrics of Handel’s Messiah appear quite appropriate for this most non-Messianic of Messiahs, the man of our moment, Sir Keir.  Therefore, despite Alex and Jason’s fear about the large Reform vote and their trepidation about Biden’s remaining in the US Presidential race, they still make time to ‘Rejoice, Rejoice, Rejoice Greatly’ because British democracy does work. It operates via a system of checks and balances -- where every action causes a counter reaction, and every Sunak Rwanda scheme, Truss tanking of the economy, and Boris-y lie elicits a shift in public opinion.    Despite the positive news of Britian’s Independence from Neo-Populists, the Enduring Disorder still prevails in many corners of these resplendent Isles. Jason tells of his undercover ethnographic field trip to Clacton-on-Sea, where he discovers that Reform are actually just the UK branch of the MAGA movement. Jason and Alex debate if: 1) Britain is in a phase of post-populism or proto-populism; 2) if the wave has crested or if Britain is just at an earlier stage in development than France or the USA; 3) What we can extrapolate about how the British electorate’s protest votes over Gaza or immigration bode for the American election; and 4) the power of the anti-system and anti-incumbency pressures and how these two factors might be the big difference btw the British and American elections -- as in the US both anti-system and anti-incumbency tendencies are working for the Republicans and against the Dems, whereas in the July 4 UK election the anti-system vote worked against the Tories and for Reform while the anti-incumbency vote worked for the Tories and against Labour.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack to get a recent clip of Jason on Al Jazeera English talking about Sir Keir’s approach to Gaza: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Oh Baby What a Night, the Two Matts on the Rise of the Lib Dems and Starmer’s flawless mastery of the first past the post system: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-two-matts/id1236139906?i=1000661232273     Read The Lammy Doctrine https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2024/06/david-lammy-doctrine-interview-jason-cowley?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email     Listen to an potted biography of Sir Keir’s personal, professional, and intellectual journey: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/origin-story/id1624704966?i=1000660203835   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Later this week as they go to the polls, UK voters will likely celebrate their very own ‘Independence from Neo-Populists Day’. With Labour widely expected to secure a large majority… could this be a chance for Order within an increasingly Disordered West? If he cruises to victory, as expected, how will Sir Keir manage his relations with the EU and US?  In this episode, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall discuss the rather uninspiring election campaign so far. They analyse why Labour’s play-it-safe ‘Gareth Southgate approach’ is dissuading some voters; what a Starmer premiership means for the UK’s relationship with the EU (could some stealth mega-ordering be on the horizon?); and how David Lammy and Kier would almost certainly reignite an increasingly ‘special relationship’ with a Biden/Democrat-led US, or how they would struggle to navigate a ‘specially-challenged-relationship’ with a Trump-led White House.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Read In Picture-Postcard English Villages, a Seismic Political Shift Is Underway (on Jeremy Hunt) from the New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/14/world/europe/uk-election-jeremy-hunt.html    Sir Keir Starmer must win. Only his government can shape the future we want to see: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2024/jun/28/the-guardian-view-on-the-general-election-2024-a-labour-victory-would-be-a-reason-for-hope     And when will we get the results: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/21/general-election-timetable-when-what-time-results/     Read The Lammy Doctrine https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2024/06/david-lammy-doctrine-interview-jason-cowley?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After months of the grandees in the Democratic party telling the public that Biden’s age was nothing to worry about: the Global Orderer-in Chief has been shown to have no clothes and his adult diapers were not changed prior to his appearing before an audience of tens of millions. As Mega-Orderers know, Jason is prone to melodrama, but in this instance the Sky Really Is Falling!  June 27, 2024 may go down there as one of those dates like Dec 7, 1941 and June 23, 2016: Dates that will live on in infamy.     Biden’s debate performance truly has massive implications for global order: it will embolden Pyongyang, Beijing, Tehran, and Moscow; it creates a dangerous global vacuum with an absence of orderers for many months until the dust settles from the US election; and it leaves the democratic party with an urgent choice how to choreography the process of substituting Biden out for a younger candidate.     To counterbalance Jason’s doom and gloom, he is joined by the ever up beat Glaswegian Jane Kinninmont who presents the view on Biden from the European capitals.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    As for what needs to happen now, here are what centrist Democrats  commentators are saying: Tom Friedman: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html     Frank Bruni: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/presidential-debate-trump-biden-2024.html     Scores of cogent podcasts have emerged dissecting the optics of the debate and what the Dems have to do now. Here are a couple that we have found particularly useful:    Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-presidential-debate.html    The Rest is Politics US: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/advantage-trump-will-the-democrats-move-to-replace/id1743030473?i=1000660512902   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Exactly 110 years ago, a malnourished teenager with a pistol disordered the world. On Sunday the 28th of June 1914, Gavrilo Princip fired two bullets. They hit their targets -- killing both the Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian imperial crown, and his wife, Sophie.     That event ended the age of the traditional European empires, unleashed the mud and blood of the Great War, catalysed the fall of the Tsar and theoretical Marxism’s transformation into a totalitarian reality, and uncorked the nationalist genie that would lead to Hitler, the Second World War, the Holocaust, and later the Cold War. But did it also start our era of Enduring Disorder?     Jason has certain contentions about the relative degree of order and disorder in the past -- notably that the years 1815-2011, in general, and 1946-2003, in specific, were periods characterized by global order and coherent hegemonic leadership -- but what if he is wrong? What if our global disorder didn’t start in 2003 but rather in 1914?    In this special anniversary episode of Disorder, Tim Butcher tells Jason Pack about that fateful day exactly 110 years ago, what its disordering implications have been, how they have rippled down the years, and how modern history can be thought to have begun on that street corner in Sarajevo.     Princip has been variously described as the `bloodiest assassin in history’ and ‘the most important person in the entire 20th century’… but in this episode, we are going to investigate if he is -- possibly more so than even Trump, Putin or the Ayatollahs -- our world’s true disorder-in-chief… As Tim explains, there is every reason to feel that the world of the Fin de Siècle was in fact more order than what came after it and that Princip is the author of the Disorder that we now inhabit.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Buy ‘The Trigger: Hunting the Assassin Who Brought the World to War’ by Tim Butcher - https://www.amazon.com/Trigger-Hunting-Assassin-Brought-World/dp/0802123899/     For more on Gavrilo Princip’s biography: https://www.britannica.com/biography/Gavrilo-Princip     For more on Tim Butcher’s amazing career: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Butcher     And for his great episode on our sister Pod, Battleground: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/121-how-the-2006-war-relates-to-gaza-today/id1617276298?i=1000640849125   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We celebrate 9 full months of Disorder with a live studio recording. Climate change hasn’t been acted on coherently by a coalition of major powers, while certain governments and businesses have prevented climate action choosing to pursue short-term goals. Is this to be expected? Is it rational for some governments and business to pull in different directions or are they missing the plot and thinking too short-term?    But then again, is it in the long-term interest of most major states, citizens, and multinational corporations to work together to fight climate change? Or is it actually a rational calculation for certain states or corporations (like oil producing ones) to fight the creation of global coordination mechanisms and delay the energy transition and look to profit from the current high demand for the fossil fuels that they either export or produce?    To discuss this issue, Jason Pack is joined by Olivia Azadegan and Hassan Damluji.    Hassan Damluji is a British-Iraqi development expert and author of The Responsible Globalist: What Citizens of the World Can Learn from Nationalism. He is Co-founder of Global Nation, which focuses on improving international cooperation to combat climate change, pandemics, inequality and conflict. Olivia Azadegan is a British-Iranian, a fellow at the Women Leaders in Energy and Climate Change at the Atlantic Council and a winner of a Forbes 30 under 30 Award.    The trio discuss: what is the role of the MENA region in fighting climate change, how can nations effectively coordinate to incentivise each other to act now, and why low hanging fruit like reducing methane emissions could help us Order the Disorder.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Listen to our previous Climate Change focusing on COP episode at: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/57a09a9714313530fa16475c09396f7b     For more on COP and collective action:  https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/12/13/in-a-first-cop28-targets-the-root-cause-of-climate-change     How MENA countries face achieving climate resilience: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/04/assessing-climate-adaptation-plans-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa?lang=en     Exploring the Energy Transition and Net-Zero Strategies of Gulf Oil Producers: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/exploring-energy-transition-and-net-zero-strategies-gulf-oil-producers     A profile of our Queen for an episode: https://www.forbes.com/profile/olivia-azadegan/     Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Renowned Israeli Military historian Martin Van Creveld explains to Disorder listeners how certain essential elements of warfare have remained constant overtime. These continuities have been frequently overlooked in the sensationalizing media coverage of the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.    In major interstate warfare, the defense retains its traditional advantages just as it did when Carl von Clausewitz penned his famous ‘On War’; in counter insurgency warfare separating insurgents from the shelter they receive from the local population remains as complex as when Mao Tze Dong wrote his ‘On Guerrilla Warfare’; and maintaining deterrence vis a vis one’s adversaries remains just as important as when Theodore Roosevelt suggested at the Minnesota State Fair in 1901 that one should ‘speak softly, and carry a big stick.’     Drawing on his extensive research over decades, Martin presents a rare treat for Disorder listeners sharing his theories on deterrence, the imitative nature of war, what makes people willing to fight and die, the tragedy of the Palestinians, propaganda in War, and what can be done to help Israelis and Palestinians understand each other’s narratives better. Martin Van Creveld has written 33 books with fluidity and grace on topics as wide ranging as tank battles, feminism, human consciousness, Western philosophy, and terrorism. Martin has briefed every major Western military and his books ‘Command in War’; ‘Supplying War: Logistics from Wallenstein to Patton’; ‘The Transformation of War’; ‘The Sword and the Olive’ and ‘The Rise and Decline of the State’; ‘the Culture of War’; ‘Pussycats: The West and the Rest’ have changed how war is studied at military academies the world over.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    On supply in War: https://www.bookandsword.com/2021/07/03/some-thoughts-on-van-crevelds-supplying-war/  On airpower: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/24/books/review/book-review-the-age-of-airpower-by-martin-van-creveld.html  Famous Martin Van Creveld Quotes: https://www.azquotes.com/author/3400-Martin_Van_Creveld   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Heretofore, this podcast has largely examined the blame that neo-liberals, neo-conservatives, and neo-populists on the Right bear in causing our era of global enduring disorder. Now is the turn to set our crosshairs on the disorder that comes from the ideas of the Left. Recent events reveal that the Left lacks a coherent vision of the global economy, of global institutions, and possibly of the objectives of Western foreign policy in general. To be intellectually honest, we must ask is the progressive Left as guilty as the neo-populist Right in disordering the globe?     These days, many on the progressive left are outraged with Biden, Sunak, and Starmer’s centrism and demand a more humanitarian approach to Anglo-American foreign policy, but are those progressive voices sufficiently concerned about whether or not their preferred approach will lead to global order? Jason is joined by Professor Megan Stewart of the University of Michigan to discuss the implications of her co-authored essay in Foreign Affairs, ‘The Progressive Case Against Retrenchment’.    Megan explains that progressive American scholars have largely characterized their ‘progressive vision of foreign policy’ as one where the US and the West restrains its exercise of hegemonic power abroad. She explains that for these progressive thinkers, the U.S. is the greatest source of imperialism, war, and insecurity. Megan explains why they think this way and Jason shares his feelings that this train of thought is a recipe for further disorder. Megan concludes with a dose of hard nose realism arguing that force MAY be justified on progressive grounds, and that a truly progressive foreign policy means grappling with inevitable tradeoffs and trying to minimize them.     Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links      Read Megan's co-authored article The Progressive Case for American Power  https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/progressive-case-american-power   For more on Megan: https://www.meganastewart.org/bio    Her book Governing For Revolution: Social Transformation in Civil War:  https://www.meganastewart.org/book-project   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The sordid tale of Tory mega donor, Mohamed Amersi, and his libel suit against Charlotte Leslie was an attempt to turn money into control over the truth. To our mind, there is no greater example of how the underlying principles of our era of Global Enduring Disorder connect bribery in Kazakhstan and Kathmandu to Brexit, the Ukraine war, and shadowy consultancies which offer pay-for-play access to the British elite.     In part 2 of Jason’s conversation with Tom Burgis, the duo talk about some of the biggest corruption cases in British history, how the complex story of post-Cold War deregulation has fuelled both global corruption and donations to the Tory party. This story has surprising implications for who has access to the British royal family and fundamentally who owns the truth.    After the interview, Jason and Alex ‘Order the Disorder’ by discussing whether increased international co-ordination can curtail illegal money flows, and what a potential incoming Starmer-led Labour government could do domestically to prevent illicit gains from being recycled into campaign donations.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Get Tom’s book Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth https://tomburgis.com/cuckooland    Read the New Stateman’s, ‘Britain’s new oligarchy  Tom Burgis’s Cuckooland shows how the power to shape our politics is available to the highest bidder.’  https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2024/03/britain-new-oligarchy-tom-burgis-cuckooland    For more on CMEC’s visit to rogue Libyan general Haftar: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/libyan-general-haftar-meets-uk-conservative-delegation     For more on Mohamed Amersi and his liable suit against Charlotte Leslie, read Tom’s ‘Tory fundraising machine to come under scrutiny in UK court case’ in the FT here: https://www.ft.com/content/fcf90497-e283-4645-b18f-d95d35ff3fcd   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Corruption, in one form or another, is as old as civilization. As long as there have been governmental authorities, private businesspeople have found ways to bribe them to get preferential deals. So, what is different about corruption in our era of Global Enduring Disorder?    To find out, Jason Pack is joined by Tom Burgis -- award winning investigative journalist, and author of Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth. In this episode (Part 1 of 2), the duo discuss how laws and decisions in the City of London and Washington, DC actually enable kleptocratic behaviour in places like Nigeria and Kazakhstan. Plus: why  are skilled middlemen and fixers so critical in enabling transnational corruption? And what kind of systemic risks do such dirty dealings abroad and the offshoring of illicit gains pose to our own politics and security?    To Order the Disorder, Alex Hall Hall joins Jason to analyse how the conduits of mega corruption is actually at the centre of our post-Cold War global story, and not at its periphery.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Get Tom’s book Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth https://tomburgis.com/cuckooland   Read the New Stateman’s, ‘Britain’s new oligarchy - Tom Burgis’s Cuckooland shows how the power to shape our politics is available to the highest bidder.’  https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2024/03/britain-new-oligarchy-tom-burgis-cuckooland    Read PodBible’s interview with Alex and Jason here: https://podbiblemag.com/disorder-giving-order-to-the-global-enduring-disorder/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We all know about the potential threats as AI becomes more advanced. They range from spreading disinformation, undermining our democracy (as discussed in our previous episode with Miles Taylor), to completely upending the job market. But could AI be used to radically transform the way bureaucracy works (making it more efficient) and helping us Order the Disorder?    To discuss whether AI could be used as an ‘Ordering Force’ if regulated properly, Jason is joined by Marc Warner. Marc is the founder of Faculty.AI, and has worked with many UK government agencies and leading multinational brands to implement impactful AI solutions. He sat on the Prime Minister’s AI Council, helped the NHS use AI to save thousands of lives during the pandemic, and attended the first ever AI Safety Summit.    Jason and Marc discuss: the role AI could play in fixing Britain’s broken public services, whether a Starmer-led Britain could become an AI superpower, and how the whole globe desperately needs global co-ordination to keep AI from turning into a Disordering technology.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/       Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Listen to our previous episode with Miles Taylor, Ep25. Could Artificial Intelligence-powered disinformation campaigns cause electoral mayhem? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/42c97d2971c72d251b59b92d47d6c0ed     Read: ‘Using AI to transform public services’ (foreword written by Marc & Tony Blair) https://www.institute.global/insights/politics-and-governance/governing-in-the-age-of-ai-a-new-model-to-transform-the-state     Watch: ‘Human Led AI’ - a talk by Marc https://www.gresham.ac.uk/watch-now/human-led-ai     Read: ‘AI Could Save (the UK) Government £200 Billion Over Five Years’ https://www.institute.global/insights/news/ai-could-save-government-gbp200-billion-over-five-years   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

At the end of the 20th century many world governments sought to lower birth rates – e.g. China’s One Child Policy – but now in 2024… most major world governments are focussed on bringing fertility rates up. In fact, nearly all of the developed world is facing a declining and aging population. Hence, for the first time in human history a majority of the globe’s population now lives under governments with a stated intent to influence childbearing.    So why do so many governments seem obsessed with national fertility rates? Should they be in the business of encouraging more people to have children – and if yes, what kind of incentives do or don’t work? Are their coherent international regulations governing adoption and surrogacy and if not, why not? Is the domain of demography another realm of coordination failures and enduring disorder?    To start this week’s episode, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall discuss the overall demographic state of our planet and why there can be so much traffic at the Holland Tunnel even amidst failing fertility rates. Alex talks about her own IVF journey and the thought process that led to the eventual adoption of her kids and she discusses why governments need holistic approaches to fertility rather than the mere use of cash incentives. Jason rails about the glaring need for global governance to provide universally acknowledged rules concerning adoption, surrogacy, and to deter the use of those pesky chemicals in plastics that reduce men’s sperm counts.    To close the show, Alex and Jason take some listener questions. They cover: 1) Could Russia implode when Putin loses in Ukraine? 2) Should Britain finally create a written constitution? 3) Are voices that point out western hypocrisy without proposing solutions actually spreading disorder? And 4) All things considered (meaning holidays, NHS, and public transport) is one better compensated in the UK or US for the same work?    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Listen to Birthrates Are Plummeting Worldwide. Why? https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-ezra-klein-show/id1548604447?i=1000649683423     Hear Are we living through an infertility epidemic? https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000650753528     Listen to The Guardian’s The chilling policy to cut Greenland’s high birth rate https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000652922783     Check out Who screwed millennials: a generation left behind – Full Story podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000650954693   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jason is so so so excited he just just just can’t hide it. He sees the hand of a providential mega orderer at work with the UK going to a general election on July 4th. He doesn’t understand why his British friends poopoo his man crush on Starmer, because he sees Sir Keir as truly messianic in his non-messianic-ness and as a better, younger, more competent version of Biden.     To get a native-born insider’s view on the election, Jason is joined by his Scottish doppelganger (Jane Kinninmont) to discuss what the election could mean for UK foreign policy, post-July 4th Britian’s ability to be an orderer on the global stage, and also what this election timing means for developments North of Hadrian’s wall.    The duo discuss: alternate theories as to why this election timing came about, where the electoral battlelines are being drawn (solidly in the centre ground – especially on foreign policy), if the electoral competition is not focused on wildly different worldviews but on competence, and the potentially disordering role of anti-system players like Corbyn, Galloway, Farage, and Richard Tice.      The show ends with Jason putting forward his mystical grand unified theory of how Irish, Italian, Israeli, and British elections effect US elections. You wouldn’t want to miss it.      Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn      Show Notes Links:    For a quick overview of the mechanics of how Sunak’s team called the General Election: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9rr73w103vo   For Arthur Snell’s recent substack: ‘Is this why he called it now?, An excellent new podcast gave me thought of a possible reason for Sunak's timing: https://arthursnell.substack.com/p/is-this-why-he-called-it-now     Inflation in UK now lower than in EU or US and yet GBP to USD still strong:  https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-election-date-lifts-fog-over-promising-market-recovery-2024-05-23/    How a potential disordering disaster has been averted: BEN ANSELL, in the FT on ‘Parallel US and UK elections could bring dangers’: https://www.ft.com/content/176d4b78-1e9a-45c9-8c3c-a74e758ec22f    David Lammy on Labour’s Foreign Policy vision: https://www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/members-event/what-labours-foreign-policy     Labour saying things on defence and security spending that appeal to US Republicans  and a generally more isolationist US – see Elbridge Colby praising David Lammy: https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-ally-hits-out-at-david-cameron-for-lecturing-us/     Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The sun is shining, the flowers are in bloom, there is a dense fog over the Iranian-Azeri border, what time does that make it? Russo-Ukrainian Summer Offensive Time!     This episode starts with a short emergency-cast about the crash of the Iranian President’s helicopter due to fog. Jason briefly investigates if the death of this ‘disorderer-in-chief’ is likely to bring any more order to the Middle East region, before rejoining our regularly scheduled programming about Ukraine.    Over the last two weeks, Russia has been gaining territory in Ukraine’s northeast, while the shelling of Kharkiv has progressively increased. This does not come as a surprise. The Ukrainians have been on the back foot militarily since their 2023 Summer offensive stalled.    What is the strategic logic of Russia’s recent advance? Jason is joined by acclaimed military historian Saul David. He co-hosts our sister podcast within the Goalhanger network, Battleground. Saul and Jason debate the strategic logic behind Russia’s recent moves – proposing three alternative theses for Russia’s actions: 1) Putin is trying to create a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine; 2) the current offensive is a faint to draw Ukrainian troops to the north prior to a Russian attack in Donbass; 3) Russia is trying to turn Kharkiv into Mariupol, Grozny, or Aleppo, that is to say to aerially decimate the city and inflict tremendous humanitarian suffering on its populace without any hope of actually conquering it.      After sketching a broad-brush stroke picture of the tactical and strategic situation on the ground, Saul and Jason discuss how new shipments of Western armaments will affect the current fighting; recent Russian attempts to assassinate President Zelensky; if the murder of Navalny has changed battlefield dynamics at all; the role of China and the ongoing Gaza war upon the fighting in Ukraine; and what are the relevant historical parallels to the current fighting and what lessons they hold for orderers.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    For a quick overview of Iranian President Raisi’s death and what happens next: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/20/world/europe/raisi-iran-instability.html     Listen to Goalhanger’s excellent Battleground Pod here: https://www.goalhangerpodcasts.com/battleground     Get Saul’s Sunday Times bestselling book, Sky Warriors: British Airborne Forces in the Second World War, here:  https://www.amazon.co.uk/Sky-Warriors-British-Airborne-Forces/dp/0008522162    Learn more about what is going on:  Is the Russian offensive a faint? Read more here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/16/russias-victory-day-campaign-just-ran-into-a-wall-of-ukrainian-mechanized-troops/     More on Tactics and Armaments affecting development in Kharkiv: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/15/russia-kharkiv-offensive-ukraine-vovchansk-weapons-biden/        For more on Blinken’s visit to Kyiv: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/14/ukraine-zelenskiy-calls-for-more-air-defences-as-blinken-arrives-in-kyiv    And on the Russian plot to assassinate Zelensky:  https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-assassination-plot-foiled-1897852    Find out more on Ukraine's will to survive and defend Kharkiv from Jade McGlynn:  Her recent Pod with Arthur Snell:   https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656?i=1000653710733    And her Dispatch from Kharkiv commemorating the 2 year anniversary of the war: https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/despatch-from-kharkiv/    Finally, Jason and Bill Browder’s ideas on the need for a seizure of Frozen Russian asset via Navalny acts: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/what-makes-a-martyr-alexei-navalny-shines-a-light-on-vladimir-putin-s-evil-tyranny/ar-BB1ja4If   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Earlier this week, Georgia passed its controversial ‘foreign agent’ law. Under the bill, NGOs and independent media that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors would have to register as organisations "bearing the interests of a foreign power”. The law has been met with mass protests across the country. So what does the passing of this bill mean for Georgia’s hope to become an EU and NATO member? What could it mean for the countries elections later this year? And how should the West respond? To find out, Alex Hall Hall (who served as Ambassador to Georgia), speaks to Ia Meurmishvili. An international journalist based in Washington, DC. She a former Managing Editor at Voice of America's Georgian Service, where she hosted the weekly TV show, "View from Washington."  She is a frequent commentator and moderator in international discussions about U.S. foreign and national security policy, particularly with respect to the Caucasus and Eurasia region. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read Alex’s article How the Georgian ‘Foreign Agents Bill’ May Cost it Everything its People Have Ever Dreamed Of – And Benefit No One But Russia https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/02/how-the-georgian-foreign-agents-bill-may-cost-it-everything-its-people-have-ever-dreamed-of-and-benefit-no-one-but-russia/ Georgia approves controversial 'foreign agent' law, sparking more protests https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69007465 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Part of the Enduring Disorder is our increasingly divided and partisan narratives. Trump vs. Biden, Leavers against Remainers, Palestinians and Israelis. Many of today’s political actors appear unable to understand and empathise with their opponent’s points of view. Why? Potential because social media, cancel culture, and increased partisanship seems to have actually decreased people’s ability to feel empathy or to desire it from their politicians.     But should all our politicians just be more empathetic? Actually electorally that might not work.  Do Democrats actually want to see Biden empathise with Speaker Johnson blocking aid to Ukraine? Would Labour voters accept it if Kier Starmer had sympathy with Boris Johnson lying to parliament? And does the Israeli electorate want a politician who has empathy for why Hamas committed the atrocities of Oct 7?     So what does empathy really mean in geopolitics? And how can it actually be put into practice in today’s politics? Most crucially how could a genuinely empathetic politics be useful in trying to order the disorder?     To find out, Jason Pack is joined by Dr Claire Yorke. She is an author and academic whose work explores the role and limitations of empathy and emotions in international relations, diplomacy, strategy, and political leadership. She is currently a Senior Lecturer at the Australian War College in Canberra. Jason and Claire discuss: what exactly is empathy? Can or should you empathise with someone that you fundamentally disagree with? And could empathetic leadership help us Order the Disorder?    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Read Claire’s essay, Is empathy a strategic imperative? https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2022.2152800     Read Claire Yorke: "Personal and Political Emotions in the Mind of the Diplomat.". https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2022.2152800     Claire’s website: https://claireyorke.me     Find out more about Empathy Week – to help grow empathy in the classroom and create a new generation who understands its value - https://www.empathy-week.com   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Putin’s nuclear threats over Ukraine and the constant potential of an Iranian/Israeli escalation have brought concerns over nuclear proliferation back up the geopolitical agenda. Western-aligned Asian countries – like South Korea and Saudi Arabia – have begun talking openly about whether they might need their own nukes. Meanwhile, even Germany – one of the most avowedly anti-nuclear countries in Europe – is now having a new debate about whether there should be a “Eurobomb”.    All these countries American allies are thinking of nuclearizing as they have a growing fear that they might not be able to rely on the US if the chips are down. All of this talk leads us to wonder will nuclear weapons ever be used and are nuclear threats and discussions of nuclearizing important even if the weapons will never be used?    In this episode of Disorder, Jason Pack talks to Jane Kinninmont. Jane is a peace and security expert with two decades of experience covering the Middle East, at the Economist Intelligence Unit and Chatham House. She is now with the European Leadership Network, which brings together more than 400 current, former and future European leaders to reduce nuclear risks and prevent conflict. The duo discuss: what are the risks of countries like South Korea, Germany and Saudi Arabia going nuclear? Is the current non-proliferation treaty regime up to scratch? And does nuclear non-proliferation actually work?    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Germany debates nuclear weapons, again. But now it’s different: https://thebulletin.org/2024/03/germany-debates-nuclear-weapons-again-but-now-its-different/     Read Keir Starmer: Labour commitment to nuclear weapons unshakeable: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68790435     For more on Jane’s background and work: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/jane-kinninmont/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Small states like Qatar, Ireland, Singapore, Jordan, and Botswana are thriving in our disordered world. They’re smart, agile, and are implementing novel solutions to the challenges of the 21st century. So what can the globe learn from them?    In part 2 of his conversation with Dr Armen Sarkissian - Armenia’s former president and prime minister – Jason discusses Armen’s book, ‘The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World’. They look at how: 1) successful small states could use their growing economic power to promote stability, 2) how Armenia could leverage its most unique strategic resource, its diaspora, and 3) why bringing together small states into an international club – the S20 – could actually make a big difference in helping to Order the Disorder.    In the Ordering the Disorder segment, Jason and Alex discuss whether we’re in a world where smallness is an asset, how NATO and the EU should respond to Armenia’s geopolitical tilt towards the West, and whether the S20 could present novel ways to Order the Disorder.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Orderers, If you are moved to help the plight of the refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh we recommend you donate to 'The Tumo Foundation 501(c)3' for Artsakh Teens here: https://armenia.tumo.org/t4at/    Get Dr Armen Sarkissian’s book The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-small-states-club/    Armenia’s Westward shift and the new aid package: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Armenias-Shift-West-Draws-Ire-from-Moscow-and-Baku.html     From the Washington Post: A cry for the refugees of emptied Nagorno-Karabakh: ‘We are nobody’: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/11/david-ignatius-nagorno-karabakh-refugees-azerbaijan-enclave/     On the Mayhem in the Georgian Parliament: https://twitter.com/OCMediaorg/status/1779820924734206064   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

April 24th marks Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, but the tragic Ottoman massacres of Armenians of over a century ago have been largely forgotten in mainstream Western consciousness. Why?    In the first of a two-part series, Jason is joined by Dr Armen Sarkissian, a world-renowned theoretical physicist, diplomat, and businessman. He was Armenia’s president from 2018 to 2022 and also its prime minister from 1996 to 1997. In their interview, they discuss the century old genocide, the novel round of ethnic cleansing that happened seven short months ago in Nagorno-Karabakh, how in the 1990s Armenia could have forged a peace deal from a position of strength with Azerbaijan but missed the opportunity, and why the legacy and implications of the Armenian genocide have been largely forgotten but are essential to maintaining any form of global order.     Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Get Dr Armen Sarkissian’s book The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-small-states-club/     For the Encyclopedia Brittanica Definition of the Armenian Genocide: https://www.britannica.com/event/Armenian-Genocide/Genocide     Armenia Under Siege: https://www.newsweek.com/armenia-under-siege-opinion-1889040     On Calouste Gulbenkian as Mr 5%, and the wealthiest man in the world in his day: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/jan/03/mr-five-per-cent-calouste-gulbenian-worlds-richest-man      Controversial land sale puts Jerusalem Armenians on edge: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65876162   If you are moved to help the plight of the refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh we recommend you donate to 'The Tumo Foundation 501(c)3' for Artsakh Teens here: https://armenia.tumo.org/t4at/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the early morning hours of 19 April, American officials told major news outlets that an Israeli missile had struck central Iran near its nuclear sites. No one was harmed. Officially, the Israelis are not claiming to have attacked; and Iran is not claiming to have been attacked. It is distinctly possible that this pinprick strike combined with denials on all sides will satisfy both parties and avert further retaliation. Conversely, it is also distinctly possible that it will lead to further cycles of revenge and escalation.   To Order this Disorder, Jason is joined by our returning champion Arthur Snell and our great Scottish hopeful, Jane Kinninmont -- Policy & Impact Director at the European Leadership Network (an institution specializing in preventing nuclear war). The trio discuss: 1) why did Israel choose to retaliate, even though Biden counselled them to ‘Bank the Win’; 2) if this event even counts as retribution for the Iranian strikes of 14 April or could be classified as a non-strike as it is below the threshold of certain previous Israeli actions inside Iran; and 3) how Iran’s and Israel’s Sunni Arab neighbors are responding.   Mulling over this unique historical moment, the trio use the Ordering the Disorder segment to propose opportunities for sage diplomacy to prevail and de-escalate tensions. Of course, the mere existence of these win-win, mutually beneficial, off-ramps from further conflict, does not mean that the Iranians or Israelis will seizes these opportunities.   Twitter: @DisorderShow   Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/   Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/   Producer: James Hodgson Exec Producer: Neil Fearn   Show Notes Links   For a quick overview of April 19th’s events: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/04/israel-carries-out-strikes-isfahan-iran-reports?mc_cid=a8bfe16bdf&mc_eid=b844138f36     For Iranian narratives of the confrontation with Israel: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/out-of-the-shadow-war-iranian-narratives-of-the-confrontation-with-israel/   For Arthur Snell’s Substack, ‘Not All Doom’: https://arthursnell.substack.com/   And for his podcast ‘Behind the Lines’: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656   Join ELN’s roundup of the Persian language news: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=f9c4fc8e446f80bb4d50ed06f&id=ca7882ea45 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Taiwan is not only the epicentre of the world’s semi-conductor industry and a vibrant democracy. It is arguably the most important square on the chessboard of East Asian geopolitics. And the Taiwanese have watched very carefully how China has absorbed Hong Kong.  The ‘one country, two systems’ mantra was a total failure.    China is not planning a peaceful union with Taiwan. China is building its military at a rate not seen since World War II. The Chinese explain their military buildup by claiming a desire to reunify with (i.e. invade) Taiwan by 2027. Is this just posturing by China or is a great power battle over the island – i.e. between the US and China – actually approaching?    To examine the state of play in China/Taiwan relations, Alex Hall Hall is joined by former Danish diplomat, Jonas Parello-Plesner. In his recent book – “The Battle for Taiwan” – Jonas explores what China is doing to shape the regional balance of power. In the discussion, Alex and Jonas discuss: the surrounding countries’ (Japan/South Korea/Philippines) role in deterring China, how seriously we should take Xi’s stated ambition of ‘assimilating’ Taiwan into China, and how should Taiwan and its friends in the West protect and prepare for such a likelihood.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Get Jonas Parello-Plesner’s book “The Battle for Taiwan” at https://www.amazon.co.uk/Battle-Taiwan-Jonas-Parello-Plesner/dp/B0CZRYS4RZ/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=     For More on Taiwan’s recent election: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/13/asia/taiwan-presidential-election-results-intl-hnk/index.html     Read Alex’s most recent Bylines Times article  https://bylinetimes.com/2024/04/09/the-dilemma-facing-civil-servants-over-the-uks-arms-sales-to-israel/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Jason and Alex answer some questions from our mega orderers. They discuss: the ICC’s role as an ordering institution and its controversial positions on Israel/Palestine; the difference lens and standards through which we need to view elected vs. unelected Disorderers; and why the West can’t compromise with any of Putin’s demands – or even negotiate with him – but needs to exhibit ironclad resolve in backing Ukraine’s willingness to fight.     Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/       Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Read Full Text of ICC Application for Arrest Warrants https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-icc-prosecutor-karim-khans-application-for-arrest-warrants/     Listen to our episode with Bill Browder, Ep26. Was Alexei Navalny a Martyr for Democracy? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece   Hear our episode with Evgenia Kara Murza, Ep23. Is the democratic world morally responsible for allowing Putin's rise? With Evgenia Kara-Murza https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/8eff8cc4caece2708249ee7bec567ad8   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the early morning hours of April 14th Iranian drones and missiles were launched towards Israel. The launch was framed as retaliation for an Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1st.      Nearly 99% of the projectiles were intercepted. Although little physical or human damage was sustained, regional relations have been fundamentally recast: Sunni Arab states like Jordan and possibly Saudi Arabia allowed the US, UK, and Israel to use their territory and intel assets to counter the threat. Israeli PM Netanyahu initially vowed a retaliatory strike, but Biden, Sunak and others are trying to dissuade him.    To discuss the late breaking developments and relitigate their previous predictions, Jason is joined from Dubai by Disorder’s own Roving Correspondent, David Patrikarakos. The duo set the context of the strikes within the long durée context of decades of proxy conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic. They investigate how these events might spiral out of control to cause an apocalyptic War of Gog and Magog or how they could reconfigure regional alliances and allow for renewed Qatari/American/Egyptian mediation to find an off-ramp from the current conflict.  They also investigate the current famine in Gaza and the lack of Israeli policy for long term governance solutions for the territory.     Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    For an overview of the Iranian strikes and Israeli response: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/13/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news    The Role of Biden: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-called-off-retaliatory-strike-on-iran-after-call-with-biden-new-york-times/     Read David’s sage prediction in Unherd, ‘Iran is winning the Gaza war Tehran's violent strategy could soon escalate’: https://unherd.com/2024/04/iran-is-winning-the-gaza-war/    And Jason’s plea to blame Bibi and not the Jews:  https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/blame-netanyahu-for-gaza-not-the-jews/     Our Oct 12th episode: The 2023 Israeli-Hamas war: A Symptom of our era of Disorder?: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e48504038444024ddfb4d273932b9eec   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A decisively new kind of maritime terrorism has now emerged. Last weekend, two more British-linked ships were attacked in the Red Sea by Houthi pirates. This comes after the sinking of the Rubymar on March 2nd, which released 21,000 metric tons of ammonium, constituting a major ecological disaster.     Jason is joined by Laura Cretney: a Yemen expert and founder of Pink Jinn, an online marketplace focused on supporting small businesses and communities affected by conflict in the MENA region.  The pair provide a primer on how we got to here: Who are the Houthis and how did this ‘rag tag militia’ from the mountains end up with so much leverage over the global economy?     They also unpick the implications of the Houthis: Are the attacks on global shipping actually changing the course of the conflict in Gaza? And what does the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and the competing social media narratives emerging around it, tell us about the regional and global order (or lack thereof)?    Lastly, the pair try to Order the Disorder by debating the role Diaspora communities in the US and UK can play in providing expertise and human networks to help improve Western policymaking towards the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Gaza, and throughout the MENA region.    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Hear our previous episode on Yemen here   Background on the Dawning of a new age of eco-terrorism here   To find out about the recent attacks on British shipping visit here   Read about the impact on Israel here   And the impact on the global economy here   And why designating the Houthis as terrorist may backfire can be read here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Beneath the Caribbean’s idyllic seafronts and sandy beaches lies a darker truth. Illicit money flows, corruption, and organised crime leave these small states hollowed out and open to state capture. In fact, the failure of Caribbean states to provide services to their populations and to generate income has led some of them to sell their sovereignty to their highest bidder.    In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by Arthur Snell, host of the Behind the Lines podcast and former British High Commissioner to Trinidad and Tobago to discuss the multiplicity of interconnected roles Caribbean nations play within the Global Enduring Disorder. The pair discuss: Haiti’s recent gang uprising, the high homicide rates throughout the Caribbean, the historical role of the Caribbean as the first truly globalized region in human history, why former British colonies like the British Virgin Islands are increasingly turning to money laundering and drug trafficking, and how the legacy of the sugar trade has left societal scars in the region that are still felt to this day.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack here   Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Read the report, ‘Homicide and Organised Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean here   Read more about Haiti here  Discover more about Andrew Fahie’s drug case here   Read ‘The Crime Conundrum in the Caribbean’ here   Buy Arthur's, How Britain Broke the World here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this bonus episode, Alex and Jason catch up after a long absence and chew the fat. They discuss the tradeoffs of life in the US vs UK delving into the Convenience vs Inspiration dichotomy. They  try to decide who moved to the more chaotic place and where life is more livable and unpack thorny philosophical problems like have Britain’s public services become enshittified just as American tech platforms have?   Plus, they discuss the Disorder of getting car insurance in the UK, the Conservative’s London Mayoral election campaign, and what a Trump election could mean for America’s foreign policy.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    For the origins of Enshittification visit here   Enshittification as word of the year here     Read more of Alex’s writing at Byline Times     And Jason’s at his website   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

India is arguably the world’s only rising great power. As the world’s largest democracy and soon to be third largest economy it is the globe’s most serious aspirant for becoming the 6th permanent member of the UN Security Council. Despite this economic and foreign policy heft, since independence in 1947, India has stridently resisted being aligned with any one particular geopolitical “camp”.  It has always wanted to retain its “strategic autonomy” and to avoid being treated as a junior partner to any major superpower.  Recently, India has hedged between Ukraine and Russia, btw the BRICS and America, and btw Israel and the Arab World. As a result, India has successfully maintained cordial ties with many of the world’s top powers, but has it done so as an Orderer or as a Disorderer?     To discuss, Alex Hall Hall is joined by Indrani Bagchi – one of India’s most respected foreign policy journalists, a former Associate Editor for the Times of India, and currently Chief Executive Officer of the Ananta Centre. The duo discuss India’s approach to Russia, China, the UK, and the Israel-Gaza conflict. At the interview’s conclusion, while trying to Order the Disorder, an incensed Jason butts in with his strong personal hunch that India has much latent ordering potential but that Modi has deliberately squandered it in pursuit of his divisive and disordering neopopulist policies.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Find out more about India’s wealth income inequality from TIME here   Read about Kejriwal’s arrest here   For more on India’s election here  Learn about how Modi’s Neo-Populist consolidation here   More on the arrest of opposition politicians here   And about the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Can we ever truly achieve Order in the international system? Or is life itself just a deterministic jumble of uncontrollable events? Do humans crave order so much that they perceive it even when it is absent – leading to conspiracy theories? And should policymakers avoid optimization and prediction and embrace experimentation, resilience, and slack to fix the problems of our era of Global Enduring Disorder?    This week we celebrate the six-month anniversary of Disorder, by talking with a guest from our very first episode, the man who inspired this podcast, Brian Klaas. Brian’s page-turning new book ‘Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters’, is not only a dynamic read, it has much to say about whether our lives, our politics, and our relationships can ever be truly ordered. In the conversation, Brian and Jason agree disagreeably about the following issues: do most people believe that good things happen to good people, that one’s lot in life is somehow earned, and that ‘things happen for a reason’? Can some disorder be good in our personal lives? Is Order a spiritual rather than a rational virtue?     Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Pick up Fluke by visiting - https://brianpklaas.com/fluke     For more of Brian’s writing visit - https://www.forkingpaths.co/      Listen to a great audio overview of the book here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Every year, Freedom House releases an annual ‘global democracy health check’. According to it, the world is getting sicker. In this year’s ‘Freedom in the World’ report -- which reviews the state of democracy, civil, and political rights in every country -- political and civil liberties have got worse in 52 countries, while in only 21 countries have they improved.     What dynamics lie behind this trend? And what does it signify for the future?     To find out, Alex is joined by the President of Freedom House, Mike Abramowitz. Prior to running Freedom House, Mike was a Senior Executive at the Holocaust Museum, and before that, he worked for 24 years at the Washington Post, as national editor, and then White House correspondent. He also has the distinction of being one of only a handful of ‘named’ American citizens singled out for special sanctions by the Chinese Government, imposed on him in 2020 as a response to his support for the Hong Kong Democracy movement. In the episode, Alex and Mike delve into the report in more detail, the threats facing elections around the world, the implications of the stifling of the free press, and what could be done to revive the recent decline in global freedom.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack here   Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    To read Freedom House’s Freedom In The World Report here   For more on Mike Abramowitz visit Freedom House   His article in TIME, ‘How Authoritarian Regimes Go After Journalists Beyond Their Borders’ can be read here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this year of monumental elections, there is none which looms larger than the grandaddy of them all: the 2024 US Presidential Elections. With the US Primary season all but over, the match up appears set between the “disorderer-in-chief” Donald Trump and Joe Biden. But in the wake of Super Tuesday is that match up really set? Or might an open convention scenerio emerge leading to last minute switch up? And what are the global implications for a long and protracted race between two candidates with vastly different approaches to America’s place in the world and fostering global order? And what are the implications of two wildly unpopular candidates running for President with each seeking to present themselves as the least bad option?    To answer these questions and more, Alex Hall Hall is joined by Rick Davis. Rick was a senior political consultant on multiple presidential campaigns, including for George H W Bush and for Bob Dole. He also served as Senator John McCain’s national campaign manager in 2000 and 2008. He is currently a partner at Stone Court Capital, a private equity investor located in New York City. Alex and he discuss his time managing John McCain’s campaign, how Trump has conducted a hostile takeover of the Republican Party, and how we can understand the demographic shifts that have remade the face of the Republican party over the last two decades.    As they Order the Disorder, Alex and Jason discuss the prevalent double standards which are used when analyzing Biden’s record on the economy, Gaza, and Ukraine, how Congress could proactively prevent some of the potentially disordering impacts of a future potential Trump presidency, and looking forward to 2028, how a whole new class of political leaders appears bound to emerge.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Rick’s bio here   For more on Rick Davis’s career head here Read more on Davis and Lobbying here   Further background on Super Tuesday and Nikki Haley’s Departure from the Republican Primary here On Super Tuesday and Dean Phillips Departure from the Democratic Primary here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When it comes to working together to face external challenges, no challenge could be greater than extraterrestrial life… and this seemingly abstract problem could be more pressing than you think. In 2023, Air Force Colonel David Grusch spoke before Congress to present his firsthand evidence of alien spacecraft remains and non-human ‘biologics’. In his testimony, he claimed that parts of the United States Government and defense contractors were hiding these facts from disclosure to Congress. So, in response, the Senate unanimously passed what is known as the ‘UAP Disclosure Act’ -- legislation which would compel defense contractors and the CIA to disclose all information to Congress and then mandate a structured disclosure of parts of this sensitive information to the public. The parts of this act which grant Congress enforcement power are being held up by a handful of Congressmen in the House.    But do Colonel Grush’s claims hold any weight? And if they did, would global powers successfully co-ordinate on issues pertaining to extraterrestrial life? And why aren’t parts of the US Government sharing information with other parts of USG?    To answer those questions and more, Jason Pack is joined by Daniel Sheehan. Daniel is the head of the New Paradigm Institute. A Harvard educated civil rights lawyer who has worked on many high profile cases like Watergate, Daniel tells Jason about his discussions with Gorbachev about UAPs, why he believes information about UAPs is being withheld, and why he thinks releasing this ‘information’ to the world is the right thing to do.    Meanwhile, Alex and Jason discuss: why Daniel’s argument of a ‘shadow government’ feels unlikely, their own experience of times when governments don’t share information coherently between departments, and whether Colonel Grusch feels like a credible whistleblower.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    US Congress passes stripped-down measure to release UFO records: link   UAP disclosure bill revised; two key provisions stripped, read here   About the New Paradigm Institute: https://newparadigminstitute.org/     For more Sheehan’s advocacy head here   Read a reputable British science journalist’s take of Congressional UAP issues here   Listen to Sheehan on the Lede Podcast talking more about the details of the UAP disclosure Act here   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the days following Navalny’s murder, Western leaders have made all too predictable speeches and issued all too predictable condemnations. But as of yet, very little concrete action has been taken to respond to the murder of Russia’s most prominent opposition politician. The West talks the talk, but has yet to walk the walk. How should Biden, Sunak and Ursula Van Der Leyen hit Putin where it actually hurts and genuinely punish him for his actions?     In this episode of Disorder, Jason Pack sits down with successful investor, globally acclaimed author, and famous philanthropist/humanitarian advocate, Bill Browder. A close friend of Navalny, Browder talks of his emotions at hearing of his ally’s death, how ‘demoralizing’ the news is for ordinary people opposing Putin’s regime, and what the West can now do to turn their words of condemnation and outrage into concrete actions.    Bill recalls that when he first went to Russia in the 1990s, a chaotic and poorly-organized mafia gradually spread throughout the country. Then, it spread its tentacles throughout the world. And we in the West essentially let this happen. And now Navalny has died bearing further witness to the extent of corruption, indecency, and thuggery in Russia. We must not stand idly by.  Browder’s interview concludes with a passionate plea to Western governments – especially the United Kingdom – to work together to confiscate Russian cash reserves and free other imprisoned opposition leaders.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Jason’s article in USAToday about Navalny's messianism, its historical antecedents, and what the West should do to honour his memory and punish Putin. Read here Read Bill Browder’s bio here   Read Browder’s ‘Freezing Order’ here   ‘How Bill Browder Became Russia’s Most Wanted Man’ by the New Yorker can be found here   From the Guardian, ‘More deaths are coming’: fears over fate of other Russian political prisoners after Navalny’s death’ can be read here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In part 2 of our discussion with Jamie Metzl, author of Superconvergence, Jaime tells Jason about his idea for creating a new global body tasked with regulated existential risks. Jaime is a super order who sees most of the threats facing humanity as fundamentally linked and wishes to adopt one coherent and coordinated approach to Order the Disorder. Trying to unpick how such regulation could be done, Jamie, Jason and Alex each analyse the differences between an American and European approach to regulating new industries.     Alex and Jason close the episode by proposing how the EU could use its trading might to incentivize global co-ordination on issues like climate change and AI.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/       Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Mega-order Jamie’s book, Superconvergence, at https://superconvergencebook.com For more on Jamie’s unbelievable career: https://jamiemetzl.com And his novel ‘Eternal Sonata’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28695898-eternal-sonata   And his theories and extensive public engagement about the origins of COVID-19: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Wars are raging in Ukraine and the Middle East. Russia’s most famous opposition politician (Alexei Navalany) has just been murdered. Meanwhile, the international institutions set up after World War 2 to uphold peace and security no longer seem fit for purpose. Into this space comes the annual Munich Security Forum. Its flagship event, which took place last weekend, is its gathering of hundreds of the world’s top security experts and decision makers in Munich each year, to debate – and hopefully come up with solutions for - the world’s most pressing security concerns.     Last year, despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, the conference took place in relatively optimistic circumstances: the Ukrainians were putting up a plucky defence, while the euro-atlantic alliance seemed to have found new purpose. This year is a different story. Russia has just taken the city of Avdiivka, while international support for Ukraine is wavering. And on the very opening day of the conference, the shocking news broke that Russia’s most prominent opposition politician, Alexei Navalny, had died in prison.     So what was the mood like at this year’s conference, and how should the euro-atlantic community respond to these challenges? To answer those questions, Alex Hall Hall was joined by Nico Lange – a senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference and a former Chief of Staff at the German Ministry of Defence. In this episode the pair discuss: what were the main takeaways from the conference, the need for European powers to step up their aid to Ukraine, and why expanding the EU and NATO is vital for international security.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Read Nico Lange’s article ‘In a critical situation for Ukraine, it is down to the Europeans’ here   And for an overview of many issues relating to Navalny’s death and Western and Russian politicians reactions to it here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In late January 2024, New Hampshire residents received a strange phone call. The voice of Joe Biden was telling them not to vote in the Democratic Primaries.  But it wasn’t actually the President on the line… It was a deep faked robot. This was part of an unlawful attempt to disrupt the New Hampshire Presidential Primary Election. That disinformation campaign was created by easily accessible technology. Over the next months, more sophisticated attempts are almost bound to emerge seeking to disrupt the November US Presidential Elections… so what can be done to prevent AI-empowered voter suppression and help protect democracy against these very real threats?    To find out, Alex Hall Hall speaks to Miles Taylor. Miles was the Chief of Staff in the Department of Homeland Security under the Trump Administration. It was later revealed that he was the author of the famous ‘Anonymous’ essay in the New York Times entitled, ‘I am part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration’. He most recently wrote an NYT bestseller ‘Blowback’. Taylor is now the co-founder of the US Futures Policy Studio in Washington; an organisation which is looking to help policymakers better understand deep fake technology. In his discussion with Alex, he talks about his reasons for leaving the Trump Administration; the unbridled vengeance he faced as a consequence of speaking out against a Neo-Populist; and his current work bringing attention to one of the most profound threats currently facing democracies: Artificial Intelligence.    To close the show, Jason and Alex ‘Order the Disorder’ by discussing the need for fast-moving regulation around AI, why a lengthening of ‘power distance’ in American society is an indication that our democratic institutions and culture aren’t work properly anymore, and why a public information campaign ridiculing AI deep fakes could help to prepare society for these disruptive technologies.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Read the famous ‘Anonymous’ essay in the NYT here   Read why Miles unmasked himself here   Read Alex’s article ‘Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Dilemma of a Conflicted Civil Servant’ in the Texas National Security Review here   Get Blowback: A Warning to Save Democracy from the Next Trump here   Read ‘Fake Biden robocall telling Democrats not to vote is likely an AI-generated deepfake’ here   For a range of academic and conceptual work on the concept of ‘Power Distance’, consult here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As Alex turns 60, she and Jason  look back at how the world has changed since she first decided to enter the diplomatic service. Meanwhile, Jason explains how his ‘lived experiences’ across the Middle East have shaped the way he views American foreign policy. The Boomer vs Gen X dynamics are laid bared for all to see. Then the duo answer listener questions: namely, what UK/US support for Israel should look like, why some countries are less corrupt than others and what role Western powers should play in post-conflict zones. Finally, as they Order the Disorder, Alex and Jason talk about the need to be courageous in trying to bring interim governance to post-War Gaza, and the importance of maintaining moral clarity.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack here    Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Much ink has been spilled about the legal definition of the crime of Genocide and if Israel has committed it in Gaza or if Hamas committed it on October 7th. In this pod, we are not examining those legal or moral issues. Adopting a non-legal, and non-humanitarian frame of mind, we are going to examine what are the underlying geopolitical, historical, and diplomatic reasons for South Africa bringing a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ)?     In this episode of Disorder, Jason Pack speaks to Sasha Polakow-Suransky -- deputy editor of Foreign Policy and author of ‘The Unspoken Alliance: Israel's Secret Relationship with Apartheid South Africa’. The duo turn the telescope around and look squarely at South Africa, rather than looking at Israel or the Palestinians. They discuss the global implications of the ICJ case for South Africa and how it fits in the country’s decades long whiplash romances first with Israel then with the Palestinians, how South Africans see their role in the world, and whether South Africa’s actions and media campaign will further intrench ideas in the Global South that America’s stance on Israel’s actions in Gaza is grounded in hypocrisy. Then in our Ordering the Disorder segment, we debate is South Africa proposing an alternative order to the American-led international system or merely an alternative disorder?    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack here   Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Read: ‘What South Africa Really Won at the ICJ’ by Sasha here   Read: ‘The Year Geopolitical Competition Returned to Africa’ by Sasha here     Listen to Today, Explained episode, ‘Israel at the International Court of Justice’ here     Read the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide here Get Sasha’s book The Unspoken Alliance: Israel's Secret Relationship with Apartheid South Africa here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In April 2022, undeterred by his previous two poisonings, Russian opposition politician, historian, and free speech advocate Vladimir Kara-Murza made the incredibly courageous decision to re-enter Russia – despite his known opposition to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine two months earlier. What happened next was as tragic as it was predictable. A year later Vladimir was sentenced to 25 years in prison. Last Monday, he disappeared from the Siberian penal colony where he was being held, only much later re-emerging in solitary confinement in a different prison.   In this episode of Disorder, we speak to Evgenia Kara-Murza, a Russian human rights activist and Vladimir’s wife.  Evgenia shares about her upbringing in Russia’s Far East, how her husband was imprisoned while working to improve the country, and how what is happening within Russia “hurts” her deeply. She also unpacks how Western leaders bear significant responsibility for the direction taken by the regime of Vladimir Putin – to her mind choosing cowardice and to make money over the safeguarding of human rights. Evgenia finishes the interview talking about how already democratic countries need to stay alert and safeguard their rights and freedoms. To her, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has shown: democracy is under threat – globally.  Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack here   Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Read Evgenia’s interview for Time here   Watch Vladimir’s documentary here   A profile on Vladimir by Meduza here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We wanted to let you all in on a well guarded secret: there are actually other podcasts out there that try to Order the Disorder. The team behind the New European magazine produce a podcast called ‘The Two Matts’. We were really inspired by their recent treatment of how Germany is dealing with its neopopulism problem. In this bonus episode of Disorder, we present an excerpt from The Two Matts Jan 26th Show ‘Germany Fighting Fascism’ where Matt and Matt talk about the massive street protests against the AfD and the unique constitutional ways in which Germany can fight the rise of neopopulism.    Show Notes Links   Listen to the Two Matts here   Read Jason Pack’s recent article in The New European about how Bibi is just a run of the mill neopopulist here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week we examine the regional roles played by Egypt and Iran and discuss British diplomacy towards those countries over the last decade or so. Iran and Egypt offer a fascinating study in contrasts – in terms of their dealings with Israel and Hamas, as well as their posturing relative to the outside world.     So who better to help us understand these countries regional role than Alex’s former boss, Sir Geoffrey Adams, who served as British Ambassador both to Iran (2006-9) and to Egypt (2018-21). He served  also as Consul General in Jerusalem, the representative to the Palestinian Authority; as Foreign Office Director for the Middle East, and as DG Political – the chief political advisor in the Foreign Office. He is now an honorary lecturer at the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews.    Sir Geoffrey relates his experiences of how diplomacy ‘feels’ in Tehran and Cairo and explains why medium powers like Egypt and Iran cannot be dictated to by disunited Western powers. Alex and Jason try to Order the Disorder by discussing Iran’s role as a disordering power, Egypt’s role as a mediating one, and why the medium powers in the region need to step up.    Twitter: @DisorderShow  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/disorderpod/     Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links     Sir Geoffrey’s FCDO bio is available here His ‘Reflections on the Arab Spring Ten Years On’ can be accessed here    For more on the role of Iran as Disorderer please consult Ali Ansari in Ep4 here   For more on the regional role of Egypt and why Gaza is existential for Egypt according to Nathan Brown: pls consult in Ep16. The Struggle for Leadership of the Islamic World here   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Jason Pack and Alexandra Hall Hall open with their thoughts on the EU’s strengths and weaknesses – concluding that the old adage, ‘The EU is an economic colossus and a political pygmy’, is not too far off. To investigate how the EU leverages its trade clout, Alex interviews John Clarke – a British national who worked for more than 30 years as a trade negotiator for the EU. John tells us the tricks of the trade: how the US would steal trade dossiers during negotiations, how the psychology of negotiations works, and how the devil is in the details of free trade agreements.   He also describes how the EU’s trade treaties are like the different reciprocal drinking arrangements down at the pub. And of course, John gives Alex an insider’s perspective of ‘what went wrong’ over Brexit. In Ordering the Disorder, Jason and Alex discuss the lack of specific training that US and UK Ambassadors receive about negotiations, how the EU must navigate a fine line between the US and China, and how the rise of Neo-Populism in Europe could spell the end to EU’s trade negotiating prowess.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe    Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  For more visit here Read more about Europe’s Trade Ambitions here For more on the EU’s recent New Zealand trade deal visit here Find more on the tensions at play within EU read "Poland opposes extension of EU trade preferences for Ukraine” here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the Houthis attack ships in the Red Sea, Arthur Snell and Jason explore: 1) How this horrible crisis is actually an opportunity to create a coalition of orderers; 2) how Iran is not really able to use the Houthis as a proxy; 3) how one interpretation of the Houthi actions is as ‘global disordering’ rather than specifically supporting the Palestinians or a given outcome in Gaza; and 4) how there is an opportunity for a uniquely constructive role for Britain, drawing on its credibility and experience in protecting global shipping especially in a context where China refuses to engage.   Twitter: @DisorderShow    Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe    Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    A good intro to Yemeni history from Time’s ‘Made by History’ can be found here.   What the US is doing here   What the UK is doing by Elisabeth Braw here   And what some think the US and UK should be doing here   Context around Anti-Semitism in Yemen here  Role of Saudi here   Listen to Arthur Snell’s podcast, Behind the Lines here   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Jason Pack and Alexandra Hall Hall disentangle the related concepts of corruption, illegality, embezzlement, and bribery. They discuss what happens when the laws of a given country allow legalized versions of ‘corruption in plain sight’ to flourish. They’ll look at two different case studies of this phenomenon: Britain and Libya. First, Alex talks to journalist and author Sam Bright about the unique type of ‘pay for access’ corruption that has infiltrated the British establishment. They’ll analyse how wealthy donors can buy meetings with senior officials within the Conservative Party, the implications of the UK’s failed Golden Visa Programme and how it has allowed oligarchs to embed themselves into the UK’s political and economic life, and how the British media’s cosy relationships with cabinet ministers leads to a lack of accountability and transparency.  Later in the episode, Jason talks to Husni Bey Husni, Libya’s most famous and successful entrepreneur and businessman. They’ll unpack how subsidies in Libya encourage corruption and pervert incentive structures and international markets. They dwell on the policy implications of these perversions and Husni argues that a libertarian approach is his personal solution to help Order the Disorder.   Finally, Jason and Alex discuss how to deter corruption in British politics, how the Libyans have perfected the Miss Manner’s Guide to Rigorously Correct Kleptocracy works, how the libertarian approach might (and might not) work, how regulations and cultural norms are needed, and how removing perverse incentive structures is essential as humans will always do whatever benefits them if they can get away with it.  Twitter: @DisorderShow    Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe    Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Get Sam Bright’s books Fortress London: The definitive book about Levelling Up and why it matters here And Bullingdon Club Britain: The Ransacking of a Nation here   Get Jason's book Libya and The Global Enduring Disorder here (And read about the Miss Manner’s Guide to Rigorously Correct Kleptocracy in Chapter 4)  Read more about Kleptocracy here   Read more about Husni here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Advanced biotech (CRISPR gene editing, gene drives, personalized medicine) could be the most Disordering technology ever invented. Techniques like gene drives could help us eradicate malaria by sterilising mosquitoes, but could they also spell the end of humanity (by unleashing unintended consequences)? Or release a new pandemic – think COVID-19 which was likely caused by a lab lead of a manmade super virus – into the population?    While biotech offers the potential to revolutionise everything, no one has yet proposed any coherent regulations over this domain. Seeking to learn more about advances in Biotech and how they interact with AI, globalization, and climate change we are joined by Jamie Metzl. Jamie is the author of Superconvergence, and Founder and Chair of the global social movement, OneShared.World. He and Jason discuss the vast opportunities and profound threats that emanate from biotech. Jason puts forth a more socially conservative vision that we need to learn from our collective past, what Jason calls the ‘French-peasant’ approach, while Jaime poopoos that approach advancing more boldly futuristic solutions.    To Order the Disorder, Jason and Alex discuss whether top-down or bottom-up governance solutions could help solve this issue, and what we need to do to regain the public’s trust in experts.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/       Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Mega-order Jamie’s book, Superconvergence, at https://superconvergencebook.com/   For more on Jamie’s unbelievable career: https://jamiemetzl.com/   And his novel ‘Eternal Sonata’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28695898-eternal-sonata   And his theories and extensive public engagement about the origins of COVID-19: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by Arthur Snell, and they speak to Professor Naho Mirumachi. Naho is a specialist on the politics of the environment. She is particularly interested in ‘the wars that were not fought’ over water usage. The trio discuss: what lessons can be learnt from international governance of water usage and other related collective action challenges, will there actually be ‘Water Wars’ in the future, and the challenges of international coordination over the usage of water.  Expanding outwards from historical and contemporary examples of water conflict and water sharing in the Nile Basin and Mekong Delta, the hosts ask Naho: given climate change and aridification, will there be enough fresh water to sustain a world population of 10 billion humans for the long term future?   In the Ordering the Disorder segment, the trio conclude that major states just tend not to fight over water. Or at least they haven’t as of yet. In fact, water diplomacy has been surprisingly successful over the past few decades and may point to certain lessons concerning how to incentivize optimal compromises in other fields like tax, security, or borders.   Twitter: @DisorderShow    Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe    Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Get Naho’s book Water: A Critical Introduction (Wiley) here   Read NAHO’s writing at Valuing water: a difficult but crucial step towards greater water justice here   Listen to Arthur Snell’s podcast, Behind the Lines, here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On the 1st of January 2024, BRICS (an international forum of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), are welcoming in new members to form BRICS+. In this episode, Alex Hall Hall talks with Anjali Bhatt about what the bloc aims to achieve and what the addition of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, and the UAE might entail for the organization. They’ll also discuss Argentina’s new disruptive leader, why he might withdraw from BRICS+, and whether the expansion could mean the strengthening of disordering powers (like China).    In the Ordering the Disorder segment, Jason and Alex discuss whether the West should take BRICS+ seriously as a global force, what some of their ideas might mean for global economics, and whether the institution of BRICS+ will function more as an ordering force or more as a disordering one.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/subscribe    Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  No One Knows What BRICS Expansion Means by Anjali Bhatt here   And for a broader overview of BRICS, its history, and role in the world, pls consult here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In our Christmas special, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall look back at the first year of the disorder pod, and forecast a bit about the next. They discuss 2024 as a record-breaking year of global elections, answer some listeners’ questions about topics like Central Asia, Gaza, Western hypocrisy, and Palestinian History.    They also share a bit about themselves, their families’ holiday menus, and their escape routes. Like, who knew that Alex likes doing puzzles so much and that Jason is a super fan of the Netflix show Fauda.  During the Ordering the Disorder Segment, they discuss why we urgently need to get the Christmas spirit back into diplomacy.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  At the start and end of the podcast, we heard some lovely Xmas music from Evoke, a London-based vocal ensemble founded and directed by Victoria Ely. Full credits:  Pat-a-pan: traditional Burgundian carol, arranged by David Conte.  Jingle Bells: arranged by Audrey Snyder  Music performed by Evoke, directed by Victoria Ely  Facebook: www.facebook.com/evokemusicuk  Youtube: www.youtube.com/@evoke1439  Website: www.evokemusic.org/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Alex and Jason investigate if major Islamic nations can exercise global leadership over the Israel-Palestine conflict and propose implementable solutions. They also examine the leverage that Arab Gulf States now have over the West, in general, and Britian, in specific. Jason talks to James M. Dorsey, host of the Turbulent World podcast, to investigate three of the principal countries battling simultaneously for leadership of the Islamic World and to set the direction of ‘moderate’ Islam in the 21st century: the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia.     Zooming in on how these dynamics bear upon the diplomacy surrounding the Gaza conflict, Jason speaks with Nathan Brown; a keen observer of Palestinian politics over the last six decades. They explore how the Palestinian question has traditionally been connected to both struggles over Muslim identity and leadership of the Islamic world. They analyse how the current struggle for Islamic Leadership could actually provide opportunities to forge solutions to the Israel-Gaza conflict.  At the end of the show, Jason and Alex return to the question of what it means that the UK has become ever more reliant on money from the Gulf States, and whether that’s taken away any leverage the West may have over these countries in the current conflict.    Twitter: @DisorderShow    Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/struggle-for-global-leadership     Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links    Listen to James M. Dorsey’s podcast, The Turbulent World here   Nathan’s first gloomy premonition, “There Might Be No Day After in Gaza here   And his “Arab Peace Initiative II: How Arab Leadership Could Design a Peace Plan in Israel and Palestine” here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices