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Copper Weekly

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence

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Fréquence : 1 épisode/7j. Total Éps: 15

Copper sits at the heart of the energy transition, yet its market still trades on old and new fundamentals colliding. Copper Weekly, a Benchmark Podcast, cuts through the noise in 10–15 minutes, giving you the key moves, the real drivers, and the risks ahead.

Hosted by Michael Finch, Head of Strategic Initiatives, and Albert Mackenzie, Copper Analyst & Market Reporter, each episode breaks down the week’s price action and discusses the latest pressing developments shaping this ever-evolving market.

Drawing on Benchmark’s supply and demand expertise, with regular appearances from Piotr Kulas (Lead Supply Analyst) and Daan De Jonge (Lead Demand Analyst), among numerous guest speakers, the show connects short-term market moves with longer-term structural shifts in copper.

Whether you trade copper, produce it, consume it, or are tracking the metal that underpins electrification and decarbonisation, Copper Weekly gives you a concise, data-driven briefing every week.

Follow now for your weekly download of everything Copper or visit www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper to request a free demo of our services.

Alternatively, to receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, sign up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters

If there’s a copper market question you want us to tackle in a future episode, email the team at copper@benchmarkminerals.com.

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Copper's Record Rally: Is It Actually Justified?

mardi 8 septembre 2026 • Durée 18:53

Copper Weekly returns for episode fifteen, with the LME three-month price notching yet another all-time high. But this week Albert takes a step back and asks the harder question: is any of this actually justified? A candid, somewhat blunt discussion follows on frothy sentiment, record US imports, and why H1 production disruptions were already priced in long before the headlines caught up.

In this episode:

Another Record, But Why? — With copper up over 50% since November, Albert makes the case that nothing fundamental has changed enough to justify the move. Of the many market participants Benchmark has spoken to since prices began climbing, only one has offered a genuine justification for levels above $14,000/t.

A Self-Reinforcing News Cycle — Known disruptions at Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente keep resurfacing in press coverage well after the market has already absorbed them. Albert explains why big, familiar mine names make for a stickier narrative than a collection of smaller, less newsworthy outages.

H1 Production Results, Unpacked — Global mined output came in weaker in H1, but Albert argues this was already known and already priced in. He walks through why H2 typically outperforms H1 seasonally, and why this year should be no exception.

Where's the Real Deficit? — With an estimated 1.4 million tonnes of excess copper sitting in US warehouses since the start of the Trump administration, Albert questions how the market can genuinely be tight in aggregate. Strong scrap generation and robust cathode production add further weight to the case that physical material is not actually hard to find.

Record US Imports — July saw 223kt of copper cathode imported into the US, roughly three to five times a typical month and a clear record. Albert explains why this build-up could just as easily create "artificial looseness" if the flow ever reverses.

The Week Ahead — With the market approaching the third Wednesday of the month once again, Albert flags the cash-to-one-month spread as the key thing to watch, and doesn't rule out the cash price pushing beyond $15,000/t if backwardation reopens.

New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.

To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper

You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters

For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

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A Calm Between Two Storms as Volatility Looms

Saison 1 · Épisode 14

mercredi 2 septembre 2026 • Durée 21:43

Copper Weekly is back for episode fourteen, with Mike returning fresh from leave to a market that, on the surface, has been trading quietly sideways. Beneath that calm, though, Albert digs into a fascinating stock picture, a wider look across the base metals complex, and a candid warning about volatility ahead.

In this episode:

Stocks in the Wrong Place — LME on-warrant material is heavily concentrated in Asia, yet total exchange stocks tell a very different story once you factor in the US, where around 45% of LME stock sits but only 6% of on-warrant material. Albert unpacks why headline stock numbers can mask real regional tightness, and how CME stocks near 680kt add another layer to the picture.

The Cancel-and-Rewarrant Cycle — Following last month's dramatic backwardation blowout, Albert explains the mechanics behind repeated cancelling and re-warranting of LME stock, why there's little to stop it happening again and again, and why unseen, non-exchange-deliverable stock building in the US complicates the tightness narrative further.

Copper in Context: The Wider Base Metals Picture — Tin has actually outperformed copper since October, and aluminium, zinc and nickel are all showing echoes of copper's own story, from AI-driven demand narratives to acid supply fears out of the Middle East. Albert explores what looking across the base metals complex reveals about how much of the copper rally is genuinely copper-specific.

The Month Ahead — With the tariff situation still unresolved and the LME backwardation still broad, Albert predicts continued volatility heading into September, October and beyond, and offers a blunt reminder: at over $14,000/t, copper remains more than $3,000/t above levels considered record-breaking as recently as a few months ago.

New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

LME Stocks Rise and Fall, Chile's Mining Picture Assessed by Supply Analyst Carlos Piñeiro

Saison 1 · Épisode 13

mercredi 26 août 2026 • Durée 21:41

Copper Weekly returns for episode thirteen. This week we are joined by Carlos Piñeiro a principal supply analyst at Benchmark, based in Chile. Albert and Carlos talk about rapidly moving LME stocks, AI-related copper demand, and take advantage of Carlos’s expertise to dig into the supply side of the market.

In this episode:

Significant amounts of LME copper have been cancelled from the LME in the last few days; this comes following lots of material being re-warranted and put back on the LME across last week. Those deliveries quelled the backwardation.

However, now that the market is back closer to normal, large amounts of material has once again been cancelled. LME prices have therefore recovered from their slight dip last week. Looking forward, the question remains whether we will continue to see volatility on the LME with the US tariff situation still unresolved.

We also discuss the US dollar and how declines in the US dollar index may have helped pull up the copper price.

Carlos goes over how storms in Chile are impacting copper supply, and discusses whether they are likely to have any real impact on the markets, or whether the coverage of the disruptions just indicates the skittishness currently seen in the around supply disruption.

Lastly, we cover how AI demand is impacting the copper market and pose the question: Is AI demand really as important as it is presented?

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit:

A Third Week of Record Highs; LME Tightness Bites

mardi 18 août 2026 • Durée 19:07

Copper Weekly returns for episode twelve, marking a third consecutive week of all-time highs. But this time the story isn't just about price, it's about shape. Mike and Albert dig into a dramatic backwardation on the LME, what it reveals about nearby tightness, and why the rally already looks to be unwinding by the time of recording.

In this episode:

A Different Kind of Record — This week's record was set on the cash price rather than the three-month, as the LME slipped into a steep backwardation with the front month trading around $400 above the next. Albert explains what that shape tells us about physical tightness right now.

Contango vs Backwardation, Explained — For listeners newer to the terminology, Albert breaks down the basics: why futures markets typically trade in contango, and what it means when nearby prices spike above future ones instead.

Two Hungry Markets — With both China and the US pulling hard on available material, Albert unpacks the cancellations seen in LME warehouses across Taiwan and Korea, and why that pattern points to genuine Chinese demand layering on top of the ongoing US pull.

A Rare Arbitrage Flip — The LME briefly traded above the CME on the nearby month for the first time in months, even as the forward curve told a very different story. Albert explains why this doesn't signal a repeat of earlier CME-to-LME stock shifts.

What's the "Real" Copper Price? — Albert offers a rough estimate that copper's fundamentally justified level sits closer to $10,000-11,000/t, with the premium above that reflecting the ongoing tariff-driven pull of material into the US, a factor that has to unwind eventually.

Copper vs Aluminium — With the copper-aluminium ratio sitting around 4.5 times, Albert discusses where substitution becomes economically attractive, and why the impact often gets diluted well before it reaches the end consumer.

The Week Ahead — Albert flags LME deliveries and the backwardation itself as the key things to watch, especially after a sharp reversal saw prices tumble from record highs within the same trading day.

New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes.

LME Copper Hits New Records as Treatment Charges Collapse

Saison 1 · Épisode 11

mardi 11 août 2026 • Durée 24:14

Copper Weekly is back for episode eleven, and the headlines write themselves: the LME cash price has now spent six consecutive days above $14,000/t, its longest run at that level ever. Mike and Albert dig into what's driving the record run, why treatment charges have collapsed to fresh lows, and lay out detailed scenarios for how the US tariff situation could play out. They also answer listener questions for the first time.

In this episode:

A New Kind of Record High — The LME cash price has broken its all-time high while the three-month price hasn't, a reversal of the pattern seen last time records fell. Albert explains the mix of factors behind it, from a weaker dollar to a DRC concentrate export story with limited real substance, and the ongoing pull of copper into both China and the US simultaneously.

Treatment Charges in Freefall — TCs have crashed through minus $170/t, a level Albert says would have seemed unthinkable even a year ago. He breaks down the structural imbalance between surging smelter capacity and slower growth in concentrate supply.

Tariff Scenario Planning — With no fresh developments on Section 232, Albert walks through Benchmark's scenario work: continued delay, immediate implementation, delayed implementation, and no tariff at all. He explains why prolonged uncertainty may actually suit the current US administration, and why nearly every scenario looks bullish for prices in the short term but bearish in the long run.

Listener Questions — In a new segment, Albert addresses two audience questions: whether AI hyperscalers are lobbying on tariff policy, and whether tariffs are really the right tool to rebuild America's copper smelting capacity.

New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Copper Nears All-Time Highs as US Imports Surge

Saison 1 · Épisode 10

mardi 4 août 2026 • Durée 18:31

Benchmark's Copper Weekly is back for episode ten. Mike and Albert unpack a week of standout price action, record-breaking US import flows, and a mining equities picture that's turning heads across the industry.

In this episode:

Approaching All-Time Highs — Copper pushed close to $14,000/t during recording, its strongest level since early June. Albert explains why weather disruption in Chile has shifted sentiment despite limited material impact, and why falling stocks across the LME, SHFE and Chinese social inventories are the real story behind the move.

Record US Imports — Reports suggest at least 200kt of copper cathode is heading into the US in July alone, a figure that would make it one of the largest single-month import totals on record and more than most nations import in an entire year. Albert breaks down why this year's flows differ from last year's more ad hoc rush, thanks to earlier positioning built into annual contract negotiations.

A Shifting European Trade Flow — With CME-deliverable Chilean cathode being pulled toward the US, Europe has turned increasingly to DRC and Chinese origin material. Albert notes European imports of Chinese-origin cathode this year already rival the cumulative total of the past two decades.

Global Tightness, US Abundance — LME stocks are down 80kt in a month, SHFE down around 70kt, and Chinese social inventories down roughly 100kt. Albert explains the concept of material being "economically locked" in the US, and why the rest-of-world market may effectively be running a deficit even as the global balance shows a surplus.

Mining Equities and Blowout Earnings — Rio Tinto and Anglo American posted profit growth of 43% and 35% respectively, with copper now approaching half of BHP's revenue mix and around a quarter of Rio Tinto's. Albert explains why elevated prices translate into outsized profit growth for already-profitable miners, and why copper has become an increasingly central part of the investment case for diversified majors.

New episodes every week. Follow the show and leave a rating — it helps us reach more listeners across the copper market and beyond.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Call to Arms or Cause for Alarm? Codelco's Scott Crooks on the Supply Gap

Saison 1 · Épisode 9

mardi 28 juillet 2026 • Durée 20:17

Copper Weekly returns for episode nine — and this week the show does something different. For the first time, Mike and Albert are joined by a special guest: Scott Crooks, principal analyst at Codelco, who brings deep experience from both research houses and one of the world's largest copper producers. Together they tackle one of the most talked-about and most misunderstood concepts in the market: the copper supply gap.

In this episode:

What the Supply Gap Really Is — Benchmark's base case puts the 2035 supply gap at around 6.6Mt, a number that gets thrown around widely in the media. Mike, Albert and Scott dig into how these charts are actually built and why the gap is best understood as a modelling output, not a prediction of a literal shortfall.

An Artificial Gap? — Scott makes the case that for large mines with existing infrastructure, the modelled decline is somewhat artificial. Companies rarely shut a mine outright; they drill, extend and expand. In his view, the size of the gap tells you more about the price response required to bring supply online than about any real future deficit.

A Call to Arms — Albert reframes the supply gap as a challenge laid down to the mining industry rather than a forecast of doom. Waking up short several million tonnes in 2035 simply is not how it works; the gap is a nuanced signal of what needs to be done, not a guarantee of what will happen.

If the Incentive Is There, Where's the Supply? — With prices near $13,600/t and Benchmark's incentive price around $11,500/t, why hasn't a wave of new supply arrived? Scott points to hard lessons from post-financial-crisis overcapacity, shareholder pressure, quarterly reporting cycles, and the stark contrast between Western majors and state-backed Chinese investment taking a longer-term view.

Limited Upside, Unlimited Downside — The panel explores why brownfield expansions have become the preferred route to de-risk projects, why greenfield megaprojects remain scarce, and how M&A activity absorbs capital without necessarily adding new supply.

Squaring the Demand Side — From thrifting and substitution at high prices to the outsized and often overlooked role of Chinese construction, Albert explains why demand forecasts for nascent sectors like AI and the energy transition deserve a healthy dose of caution.

Falling Stocks, Rising Prices and a Return to Fundamentals?

Saison 1 · Épisode 8

mardi 21 juillet 2026 • Durée 26:17

Copper Weekly returns for episode eight — Mike and Albert unpack a week where copper prices pushed to their highest since early June. The big theme? For once, the market appears to be moving on genuine fundamentals rather than sentiment alone, as stocks draw down sharply across both the LME and China.

In this episode:

Back to Fundamentals — Copper's cash price pushed above $13,800/t for the first time in weeks. Albert explains why this rally looks different, driven by real stock declines rather than macro noise, and poses a thought-provoking question: is the market following fundamentals, or just following fundamentals because they happen to be bullish right now?

The Stock Drawdown Story — On-warrant LME stocks have fallen around 72kt through the first three weeks of July, down to roughly 120kt from over 350kt in mid-April. Albert walks through the two distinct phases of decline, first in the US on arbitrage moves, then in East Asia on genuine Chinese demand.

The Scrap Invoicing Angle — A change to Chinese scrap invoicing regulations, tied to VAT and tax rebates, may be reducing scrap availability and pushing semi producers towards cathode instead. Albert explains why this nuanced factor could be quietly supporting demand.

Curve Structure and the Arbitrage — The LME has flipped into slight backwardation while the CME holds a firm contango. Albert unpacks what this reveals about tight nearby supply, high CIF premiums into China, and the ever-present tariff expectation baked into CME pricing.

Brownfield vs Greenfield — A run of restart and expansion announcements, from BHP's Cerro Colorado to Hudbay's Constancia and KGHM's Sierra Gorda, puts brownfield firmly in focus. Albert makes the case that brownfield, often dismissed as unadventurous, is doing far more heavy lifting than it gets credit for, with over twice the near-term tonnage of the greenfield projects Benchmark tracks.

Weather Disruption in Chile — Strong weather systems have hit Chilean ports and mines, with brief disruption at Codelco's Andina and El Teniente. Albert explains why the impact looks more concentrate-focused than cathode-focused for now.

Chile’s Production Challenges Continue: Supply Analyst Ivan Llancas Joins to Discuss Chile's Mining Industry

mercredi 15 juillet 2026 • Durée 28:36

Copper Weekly returns for episode seven — This week, we are joined by Ivan Llancas, senior supply analyst, based in Chile. Albert and Ivan discuss the challenges facing mining in Chile, alongside falling LME on-warrant stock, continuously high US copper imports, and flaring Iran-US tensions, and what all that means for the copper market.

In this episode:

Iran-US Tensions Flare Up — The fragile peace between Iran and the US was broken over the weekend, with strikes traded between the two nations. However, the market has reacted less significantly than previous developments, with participants now expecting geopolitical uncertainty.

US Copper Imports Remain High — Data released last week showed that US imports of copper cathode remain elevated, with the US continuing to import more than it needs. This is adding to tightness outside the US and may get worse as the LME/CME arbitrage spiked late in May and across June; this may have further incentivised imports.

Chilean Production Falls for May Year-on-Year — Last week, COCHILCO released data for May, showing a notable decrease in Chilean copper production, with a number of big names seeing reduced production.

Why has Chilean Production Been Challenged in Recent Years? – Chile has faced challenges keeping production up in recent years. Slow greenfield development, lowering ore grades, and regulatory restrictions, among other key factors, are discussed by Albert and Ivan as they dig into why Chile has struggled to keep production high.

LME on-warrant stocks fall as Chinese origin material becomes more dominant — On-warrant stock on the LME has fallen notably in the last few weeks, with the latest batch of cancellations coming in Asia. Beyond this, stocks in China have fallen in recent weeks; we may be seeing signals that demand is picking up.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Antofagasta, Spot-Linked Pricing and the Benchmark Shake-Up

mardi 7 juillet 2026 • Durée 25:02

Copper Weekly returns for episode six — and while the US tariff saga rumbles quietly in the background, the real focus this week is a potential structural shift that could reshape how the entire copper concentrate market is priced. Mike and Albert take a deep dive into Antofagasta's reported move towards spot index-linked treatment charges and what it could mean for the benchmark system that has underpinned the market for decades.

In this episode:

Still Waiting on Tariffs — No official word on the Section 232 announcement, though sources indicate it remains under active review in Washington. Albert explains why the arbitrage hasn't collapsed and why the market continues to trade sideways in a wait-and-see mode.

Antofagasta Breaks Ranks — Reports suggest Antofagasta has agreed spot index-linked concentrate sales with a number of Chinese smelters. As the de facto benchmark negotiator alongside Freeport, this is a potentially seismic move. Albert unpacks why it matters and how the benchmark system has traditionally functioned.

The End of the Benchmark? — Could the benchmark and spot-linked systems coexist, or is this the beginning of the end? Albert explains why market consensus, particularly outside China, will determine whether the shift truly takes hold.

How the Deals Actually Work — Floors, ceilings, price reporting agencies and multi-index aggregates. Albert demystifies the mechanics of spot index-linked pricing and why spot doesn't necessarily mean buying more material on the spot market.

Who Wins? — With a huge gap between benchmark and spot levels, Albert explores who benefits in the short term versus the long term, why the move makes strategic sense for Antofagasta, and how a fully spot-linked market might eventually push aggregate TCs higher and force weaker smelters to close.

Why Would Smelters Agree? — From forced hands to bets on turning acid prices, Albert lays out why smelters might accept a deal that looks net negative today, and why European, Japanese and Korean players are likely to resist hardest.

The Week Ahead — Whether this opens the floodgates hinges almost entirely on what happens outside China. Albert flags the trust in spot indices and pressure from miners as the key factors to watch.

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Copper Weekly – Détails, épisodes et analyse

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