Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Conversations with Bill Kristol

Where do things stand in the wars in Ukraine and Iran? What are the implications of these wars for military technology, the future of warfare, and our highly fluid geopolitical environment?

In this Conversation, Phillips O'Brien, the distinguished military historian and author of the indispensable Phillips's Newsletter on Substack, shares his perspective on the two major wars. O’Brien also considers the ramifications for US-China military and technological competition, the future of the Middle East, and the faultlines in Europe. This is an unusually incisive analysis of both the facts on the ground and the larger and gathering geopolitical threats we face.

We are less than seven weeks away from Election Day, and early voting already has begun in some states. 

To discuss where things stand and where American politics might go after the midterms, we are joined again by David Axelrod, chief strategist for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns in 2008 and 2012. Axelrod shares his perspective on how the election might play out  when Trump “is in a deep hole and keeps on digging.” He explains how the fundamentals point toward a historically bad year for Republicans—with a war and tariffs, unmistakably the president's own doing, felt acutely by voters through rising energy costs. Kristol and Axelrod also discuss how the Democratic Party is dealing with the rise of economic populism, and where both parties might go in terms of ideology and character of candidates as we look toward the presidential race in 2028.

"We're 60 days away from a completely different political environment. And I think people are underestimating how different it's going to be, and how volatile it's going to be without really any moorings for either party."

So argues Doug Sosnik, former political director for Bill Clinton, one of the shrewdest analysts of American politics, and the author of an indispensable new Substack. In this detailed and wide-ranging Conversation on the midterms, 2028, and the instability of American politics, Sosnik explains what polls and historical precedents can and cannot capture about our volatile electorate. Sosnik and Kristol discuss the the strength of populist forces, the challenges facing both parties in the lead up to 2028, and why 2029 may be the beginning of a new era in American political history.

Where do things stand with the military in Trump’s Second Term? What are the consequences of a shortage of munitions in the conduct of the Iran War? What should we make of the firings of senior military leaders?

In this Conversation, Eric Edelman, former Under Secretary of Defense and former ambassador to Turkey and Finland, shares his perspective on what he describes as increasing dysfunction in the military and its civilian leadership. Edelman points to the consequences of Trump’s departure from the military decision-making processes typical of past administrations. Edelman also reflects on the politicization of promotion and other military procedures. As he puts it: “It takes a lot of time and effort to build the kind of military that we have had, that we’ve grown used to having since the 1980s-1990s…. It doesn’t take long to tear it down.” 

"Am I worried? A lot. Why? Because they’re not done yet. And it’s not just the president, but the efforts of those around him and on the outside supporting him who have a very huge and fundamental and reshaping ideology, driving an effort to … increase the president’s power even further. And this dramatically weakens the power of Congress."

So argues the distinguished political scientist and leading authority on the workings of American government, Don Kettl. According to Kettl, Trump in his second term has tried to make "loyalty to the president" the ultimate litmus test for government service. He argues that, by ignoring standards of merit and competence, Trump mostly has had the effect of gutting government rather than reforming it—with dangerous consequences for the country. 

A year and a half into the second Trump administration, is the Supreme Court meeting the moment? What are the broader implications of recent Court decisions and the conduct of lower courts? What might the next years look like?

To discuss these questions we are joined, again, by Ryan Goodman, a law professor at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of the online publication Just Security. In a bracing Conversation, Goodman argues that the Supreme Court has treated rampant non-compliance with law by the Executive Branch in a “business-as-usual” fashion, even as the administration is "engaging in actions toward the Court that very much threaten the checks and balances.” Goodman also shares his perspective on how lower courts, the media, and citizens are responding—and might better respond—to threats to the rule of law.  

What makes Niccolò Machiavelli the founder of modern politics? How did liberal thinkers like Locke, Montesquieu, and the American founders modify Machiavelli’s inventions? How did later thinkers like Kant and Hegel attempt to save reason? How stands rational control today? How stands the case for liberalism? Is there a path forward for a revived liberalism?

Drawing on his recent book The Rise and Fall of Rational Control—based on lectures given for over fifty years at Harvard—Mansfield discusses liberalism, reason in politics, and forms of rational and irrational control. This conversation is altogether a tour-de-force introduction to the history of modern political philosophy.

“This election looks like a classic collision between the irresistible force and the immovable object. The irresistible force is the elevated share of Americans who disapprove of Trump’s performance as president, which has increased since last December and is now running consistently around 60%.... The immovable object is that this election, in both the House and the Senate, is going to be fought out primarily on Republican-leaning terrain.”

What’s going to happen in the House? What’s going to happen in the Senate? What should we be watching for in the months ahead? Ron Brownstein, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and senior CNN political analyst, and a leading student of American elections, presents a tour-de-force look at the polls, data, and what indicators will matter most as we head toward November. 

“China is aiming to enhance its power with respect to the United States in particular, and eventually to emerge as the dominant player in the international system, and it’s working towards that goal…. It is not clear to me at this point what our strategy is, or even if we have one.”
So argues Princeton Professor Aaron Friedberg in a new Conversation assessing the state of US-China relations in the wake of President Trump’s China summit and the ongoing Iran War. While the Iran War does not represent a decisive shift in US-China relations, Friedberg explains that it is viewed from Beijing as a “net positive” because it has weakened US relations with its traditional allies. In a bracing synopsis, Friedberg presents China as working diligently to overtake the US as the dominant power on the world stage, while the Second Trump administration has failed to counter with a coherent strategy. 

“The Ukrainians believe Putin’s now being faced with more dilemmas than they are.” So argues the distinguished historian and a leading analyst of the Ukraine War, Phillips O’Brien. Author of the indispensable Phillips’s Newsletter on Substack, O’Brien shares his perspective on where things stand in Ukraine and Russia, and assesses the broader implications for Europe and beyond. Kristol and O’Brien also consider in depth the massive technological transformations in warfare from Ukraine to Iran, what the consequences may be for the geopolitical order, and how these innovations may affect the competition between the United States and China.   

“This branding binge [Trump] has been on: with everything he’s trying to have put his name on. To build the White House ballroom, the arch in front of Arlington Cemetery. And the war and military adventurism. It’s a way of trying to cement his state permanently as a dominant figure in history, because he knows he’s going to die.”

So argues veteran political reporter A.B. Stoddard in a bracing analysis of President Trump’s character and conduct during his second term. Reflecting on the last ten years, Stoddard argues that Trump’s aspirations to cement his role as a dominant figure in history have increased dramatically—and the acceleration of his actions must be taken seriously. For Stoddard, above all, this requires us to confront questions about the 2028 elections, including the possibility that Trump might refuse to leave office or try to keep the presidency in the family. Stoddard warns against the assumption that normalcy will return after 2028: “People just want to hope that we’re going to keep with term-limited presidents.... I don’t think we know what’s coming.”

“What is human happiness? What is political excellence? What is speech, and rhetoric? It’s always important to remind ourselves of that. But especially when you have artificial intelligence, and all of these vast possible changes in human affairs, it’s important to remind ourselves of what’s basic…. And Aristotle uncovers 80%, 90%, 95% of what really one could say, I think, reasonably, and intelligently about lots of political, and ethical matters.”

So argues the distinguished scholar of political philosophy Mark Blitz, author of the newly published Aristotle’s Political Philosophy. In this profound yet accessible Conversation, Blitz distills insights from Aristotle’s works on politics and ethics, covering topics such as the character of human excellence, the centrality of political regimes, the nature of justice, and the relationship between speech and deed. This is a must-see introduction to Aristotle’s reflection on the permanent human problems.

“It’s hard for me to see how [the war] ends in a way that enhances our position in the world generally—and, in particular, enhances our position with relation to the country that I still think is our principal strategic challenge, namely China. And that’s what really worries me.”

So argues Princeton professor and Aaron Friedberg in an incisive and sober conversation on the war in Iran and its broader geopolitical implications. Noting that there are a wide range of possible outcomes to the war, ranging from the positive to the very negative, Friedberg warns that China may see the American war in Iran as “working in their favor.” He also points to the damage to relationships with allies in Europe and Southeast Asia, who were not informed about US war plans—and the erosion of US credibility to lead a coalition of free countries to counter China and Russia.   

“Whatever happens in 2026, I think no one should take any interpretation of that as a precursor to what’s going to happen in 2028.”

So argues Doug Sosnik, former political director for Bill Clinton and one of the shrewdest and most imaginative analysts of American politics. Sosnik considers possible scenarios in 2026 including a wave election year for Democrats driven by higher turnout of college-educated voters—but their prospects in a presidential election year are threatened by "atrophied support amongst all working-class voters…. that is a barrier for winning the White House in ‘28 if we can’t do better.” In his deeply perceptive and often surprising account of the state of our politics, Sosnik shares his perspective on the challenges facing both parties in the lead up to 2028—which may prove to be one of the most significant elections in American history.

“The US government wants to arrest, detain, and deport one in every 24 people in the country—4% of the US population. That cannot be done without fundamentally transforming who we are as a people and our relationship to law enforcement.”  So argues Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a leading expert on immigration and Senior Fellow at the American Immigration Council, in a bracing Conversation on the scale and scope of the Trump administration's mass deportation mission. Reichlin-Melnick shares his perspective on the administration’s massive political and financial investment in deportation and detentions, which already have reached record levels. Kristol and Reichlin-Melnick also consider the implications of these policies for legal immigration, civil liberties, the nature of American law enforcement, and the character of American society.

“The Europeans have been in this alliance [NATO] to protect themselves, largely from Russia and other aggressors. And now it has an aggressor within the gates, so to speak. And that’s quite an extraordinary situation.”

So argues the eminent political thinker Francis Fukuyama, who begins with his assessment of Trump’s bullying of Denmark and Western Europe in recent days. In a thought-provoking tour d’horizon Conversation, Fukuyama shares his perspective not only on Greenland but on a world in crisis more generally, covering Ukraine, Europe, China, Japan, as well as developments in the United States. As he puts it, in bracing terms: “Trump is doing the same thing domestically that he’s doing internationally. He’s trying to erode all the existing constraints on his ability to use power.”

Where do things stand in American politics as we head into a midterm election year? 
 

To discuss these questions we are joined again by Ron Brownstein, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and senior CNN political analyst. Brownstein points to President Trump’s approval rating as perhaps the most significant indicator in the 2026 midterm elections—and potentially still a major factor in 2028. As he puts it, "Amid all of the swirling currents that you get whenever Trump is in the White House… the real message of '25 was ‘the fundamental things apply.’” Brownstein shares his in-depth analysis of the current demographic and partisan fault lines in American politics, and the challenges both parties face as we look ahead to the midterms and presidential elections. 

“We take for granted the degree of peace that we’ve enjoyed over the past eight plus decades. And we think that’s the norm. The norm is actually a lot more like what the world looked like before 1945. Certainly, the previous 100 years were one of constant great power warfare. And I don’t think people are ready for that—the world that we’re now moving into.”

As the distinguished historian Robert Kagan puts it in this provocative Conversation, Trump’s foreign policy may be a decisive break from the past that will not be followed by a return to the status quo. According to Kagan, we are at risk of returning to a multipolar world of shifting alliance structures and transactional foreign policy that would greatly endanger American security. Kagan’s bracing account considers the stakes of current foreign policy challenges in Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Europe—as well as the contest over liberal democracy at home.   

Dick Cheney (1941-2025) is widely regarded as one of the most consequential vice presidents in American history. 

To discus his life and legacy, we are joined by Steve Hayes, CEO and editor of The Dispatch and author of Cheney (2007), who had extraordinary access to Cheney during his time as vice president. In this Conversation, Hayes shares his personal reflections on Cheney’s character, views, and decades of public service, which spanned from the Ford through the George W. Bush administrations. Hayes reflects on the ways in which Cheney was understood—and misunderstood—by the media and public, and what the story of Cheney's life can teach us about the last half century of American political history.

How has the second Trump presidency differed from the first? How did Trump’s experiences during his time out of office and on the campaign trail in 2024—including his trial in New York and the assassination attempts—shape him? What can we expect in the months and years ahead? 

In this Conversation, Jonathan Karl, a leading chronicler of Donald Trump and author of Retribution: Donald Trump and the Campaign that Shaped America, argues for the centrality of retribution in understanding Donald Trump’s second presidency. Drawing on his extraordinary access to the president over many years, Karl reflects on how we got here and considers where we might be going.   

Where do things stand in the United States nine months into the second Trump administration? Where do things stand in Ukraine, and what are the implications of the war for the future of liberal democracy around the globe? In this Conversation, the distinguished historian Timothy Snyder reflects on the situation of the United States, Eastern Europe, and the politics of the current moment.   
 

“It’s hard for me to imagine a voter that votes in 2026 that doesn’t have Trump on their mind.”

According to veteran Democratic strategist James Carville, Trump "keeps jacking the stakes up, every day” and remains the focal point of American politics as we head towards the midterms next year. As he puts it, the Republican Party has become a “personality cult” while the Democratic Party is "a coalition in search of itself." As he explains: “I don’t think Democrats can know who they are until Democratic primary voters weigh in and decide. It’s not up to me to say what the Democratic Party should be. It’s for eight people to run for president and then have Democratic primary voters pick one, and then that’s what the party becomes.” 

In a wide-ranging Conversation, Carville shares his distinctive perspective and characteristically shrewd insights on where our politics might be headed as we look toward the midterms and 2028.

The second Trump administration’s approach to China so far differs from the more consistently hawkish posture of the first term. 

To analyze the increasingly dangerous state of our geopolitical situation and the threat posed by China, we are joined again by Princeton professor Aaron Friedberg. According to Friedberg, China continues to strengthen in military, technological, and geopolitical might as it continues to advance its ties to Russia and North Korea. Meanwhile, in Washington, the position seems to be emerging that the US can make a deal with China, as well as draw back from American positions in Europe and elsewhere. As Friedberg puts it, this policy would leave American allies in Europe and Asia more vulnerable to China and Russia—countries that have their own differences but are united by an “ideology that’s anti-Western, anti-liberal, anti-democratic. And that’s a pretty powerful force.” Friedberg argues that the various and growing threats to the US and the world order remain ever more interconnected. To counter these threats, the US must increase engagement around the world and strengthen collaboration with allies—rather than “making deals” with adversaries while retreating from global commitments.

Much has happened since we were last joined by Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Anne Applebaum in February, including the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska and the Zelensky visit to the White House that provoked an alarmed and last-minute rush to join by European heads of state. In this Conversation, Applebaum shares her perspective on the situation on the ground in Ukraine and the response in European capitals to reduced US support for Ukraine on the battlefield. Drawing on her recent book Autocracy, Inc, out this week in paperback, Applebaum considers the growing authoritarian threat and dangers to liberal democracy on both sides of the Atlantic. As she states, “the farther you go down the road [to authoritarianism], the harder it becomes to turn back.”

How is President Trump’s new tariff regime different from the trade deals of his first term? How might the new tariffs affect American businesses, consumers, and the country's macroeconomic outlook? 

To discuss, we are joined by Scott Lincicome, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a columnist at The Dispatch. Drawing on his own background as a trade lawyer, Lincicome analyzes the effects of Trump’s tariffs on American firms and consumers. Lincicome shares real-world examples of the knock-on effects of introducing new tariffs without warning, the burden of compliance with complex and untested customs regulations, and how arbitrary exemptions favor large corporations over smaller firms. Lincicome argues that the tariffs could substantially squeeze American consumers in the months ahead—and considers the intended and unintended consequences of the policies could hamper American competitiveness in the years to come.

Six months in, what has the Trump administration done with immigration and deportation—and what have we learned about where it may be headed? To discuss, we are joined, again, by Aaron Reichlin-Melnick. A leading expert on immigration and Senior Fellow at the American Immigration Council, Reichlin-Melnick presents an in-depth analysis of the situation that goes beyond the headlines. As he puts it: “We are seeing a pace of enforcement unlike anything we’ve really seen in decades….with [immigration] as the Trump Administration’s top priority. It has surged resources, manpower, and attention to immigration enforcement, with the goal of massively ramping up arrests, detentions, and deportations.”

Reichlin-Melnick shares his perspective on the situation on the ground now—as well as how developments such as the massive increase in funding in the reconciliation bill might affect things in the months and years ahead.

What has the Supreme Court done—and not done—to check the Trump administration so far? What are the broader political and constitutional implications? What might the next months and years look like? 

To discuss these questions we are joined, again, by Ryan Goodman, a law professor at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law’s Just Security blog. According to Goodman, “there are many danger signs coming from the US Supreme Court that they [are] not ready to meet the moment.” As he explains, to this point, the Supreme Court has deferred to the Trump administration on a broad range of issues, including, for example, the use of the military domestically and the militarization of ICE. Goodman also describes the increasing weaponization of the Department of Justice against political opponents. Amidst uncertainty about how the Supreme Court will respond to executive actions that ignore constitutional authorities, and in the absence of pushback by Congress, Goodman argues that civil society must step up to defend the rule of law.

Where do things stand in the war—and what will the future of Iran look like when the fighting stops?

To discuss these questions, we are joined again by Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the leading historians and analysts of Iran. Takeyh emphasizes that the Iranian leaders are “traumatized and stunned,” and that “the regime is facing a vast array of problems” from widespread discontent among the people to serious divisions within the elites. He explains that the extent of the apparent collaboration with Israel, including at the highest levels of the state, is itself evidence of the grave threat to the regime from within. 

Cautioning that much remains unknown and will be dependent on the course of the war, Takeyh reflects on possible paths forward for the regime. “I have always believed that the post Islamic Republic Iran will be substantially better than the Islamic Republic,” he explains. “But the principal challenge moving forward after this is what does a weaker Islamic Republic mean for regional security? Regimes that lose wars tend to behave in very unpredictable ways. Because what the regime will have to do is reconstitute the fear barrier that it relies on for its rule at home.”

What have we learned so far about Donald Trump’s approach to the Middle East in his second term?

In this Conversation, Eric Edelman, former ambassador to Turkey and Finland and Under Secretary of Defense,shares his perspective on the president’s recent trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. He presents a tour d’horizon of the highly dynamic and complex situation in the Middle East, not only covering the Gulf States butalso Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Israel. Edelman argues Trump has not been guided by any doctrine or coherent strategyin his foreign policy: “He really believes in transactionalism as a way of life.” The upshot sofar, per Edelman, has been “a very haphazard, incoherent policy in a very dangerous world."

What have we learned about the White House in Trump's second term? How are decisions made in the most consequential areas of national security?

During the past week, Trump fired National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. To discuss this and many other matters, we are joined again by John Bolton, who served as National Security Advisor in the Trump White House from 2018 to 2019. Bolton shares the perspective of an insider who understands Donald Trump—and government at a high level of granularity. He describes Waltz’s dismissal as emblematic of a White House in chaos. As he puts it: “more and more decisions will be made in the White House and fewer decisions in the cabinet in the second Trump term than in recent presidencies. That’s the clear message going ahead.” Assessing the price we pay, Bolton states: “[Trump] is burning through decades of effort to build up goodwill, trust, faith, reliance on America. Our friends all over the world are saying, 'You’ve taken leave of your senses.’"

Where do things stand a month after Trump's “Liberation Day” tariffs and the announcements that have followed?  

In a thoughtful and wide-ranging Conversation, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers shares his perspective on the economic and political consequences of the tariffs—and the threats to financial markets. 

According to Summers, our difficulties now go beyond any individual economic policy pronouncement by the Trump administration: “The issue is becoming, in a meta sense, confidence in the United States. When people go in and out of being confident in you, that is alarming. It’s the kind of thing that in a developing country, you’d ask yourself whether they’re going to have to have an IMF program within a few months. We’re too big for an IMF program, but we're at risk of a major kind of a financial incident.” Warning that the administration already has “done a substantial amount of damage,” Summers argues that “we may work our way through this, but only if there’s very substantial alarm and very substantial reversal.” 

What are the likely effects of Trump’s tariffs, and what do they mean for the US economy?  

To discuss, we are joined again by Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term. According to Furman, Trump’s tariffs represent an enormous "shock to the system” likely to produce both short- and long-term economic pain. Furman considers both the direct and indirect effects of Trump’s policies, including the effects of uncertainty on the economy. Finally, Kristol and Furman discuss whether Congress could push back against an economic agenda likely, in Furman’s words, to produce “many more losers than winners.” 

Where do things stand five months after Election Day?   

According to veteran reporter and commentator A.B. Stoddard, Trump’s second term has been far more radical than many anticipated. As she puts it: “The more power you give [Trump], the more he’ll take. And the less pushback that he gets, the freer he is. So I think what we’ve seen in the last couple of months is that he’s been given permission and he will take it. That’s the way Trump is…. So people need to not underestimate the fact that things could be much, much worse in three months or a year.” In a wide-ranging assessment of the state of our politics, Stoddard shares her perspective on the Trump agenda, the Republican Party’s acquiescence, and the situation of the Democratic Party opposing Trump. Stoddard and Kristol also consider how opponents of Trump might chart alternative paths forward in the months and years ahead.  

Where do things stand fifty days into Trump’s second term? 
 
According to Georgetown Law professor Steve Vladeck: “We’ve never seen such a wholesale attempt on the part of a president [to] hollow out the executive branch [and] install loyalists in all of the relevant positions of government.” Amid a blizzard of lawsuits in response to Trump’s executive actions, Vladeck analyzes whether and to what extent the courts, Congress, and other institutions might contain the Trump administration by asserting their own Constitutional prerogatives to defend the rule of law. While he notes that courts may push back on certain executive actions on First Amendment and other grounds, Vladeck argues that the courts simply were not set up to handle the kind of large-scale litigation that might follow from mass terminations in the civil service, for instance. This is a must-watch Conversation for anyone interested in understanding how the separation of powers, a bedrock of our constitutional government, is playing out in our institutions in real time. 

Where do things stand on the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine? What is the situation in European politics after the German elections? How should we think about the continued challenge of countering autocracy at home and abroad?

To discuss these questions we are joined again by Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Anne Applebaum. As Applebaum explains, despite difficulties on the battlefield, Ukraine is holding up: “The [Russians] cannot win… without Trump." And she argues that the outcome of the German elections present reasons for optimism that a European "coalition of the willing" may be emerging to seriously counter the Russian threat and support Ukraine. Applebaum also shares her perspective on the first month of the Trump administration. As she puts it: “The idea that you have to take control of state institutions and you have to make them work for you personally rather than for the people…. This is something that every illiberal leader elected and unelected sooner or later thinks they need to do. [But] this is more radical than anything any [contemporary] European far-right party has ever done.”

What is the role of social media in our politics today? 

To discuss, we are joined by Renée DiResta, a leading analyst of the internet and its effects on politics and society. 

As DiResta explains, social media platforms today are significant sources of political power that are fundamentally different from traditional media like newspapers, radio, and television. Social media makes users active participants in the consumption of information and algorithms have reinforced the polarization in our politics: “Algorithms key off of things that you like, things that people who are like you like. And then when that happens, you are put into these buckets, where you’re going to see more of a certain type of thing, so those identities are reinforced.” DiResta considers the ways in which Elon Musk has changed X (formerly Twitter), the power of controlling a social media platform, and the importance of this new phenomenon in politics at home and abroad. DiResta also shares her perspective on positive and negative effects of social media, from the highlighting of new perspectives to the proliferation of conspiracy theories. 

What have we learned from the first two weeks of the Trump administration’s approach to executive actions? 

Ryan Goodman is a professor of law at New York University, former special counsel in the Department of Defense, and co-editor of NYU Law’s Just Security blog. According to Goodman, behind the Trump administration’s Executive Orders and actions is a claim of executive authority “different in character than anything that’s preceded it.” On issues such as birthright citizenship, TikTok, and immigration, the Trump administration has claimed the right to override Congressional statutes, while Congress, so far at least, has been hesitant to assert its own constitutional powers. Goodman shares his perspective on what has transpired at the FBI, the Department of Justice, and the military, and explains what to look for in the weeks and months ahead in regard to tests of resilience of these institutions and, more broadly, the separation of powers in our constitutional government. 

What will immigration policy look like in the second Trump administration? How will it affect the country? To discuss, we are joined by Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a leading expert on immigration and Senior Fellow at the American Immigration Council. In a wide-ranging analysis that covers the complex situation at the border—as well as the political and policy choices facing Trump and Congress—Reichlin-Melnick considers possible paths forward on immigration for the Trump administration and for the country. Reichlin-Melnick notes that while the president has wide authority to change immigration policies through executive action (particularly on legal immigration), some of Trump’s promises like mass deportations face significant political and legal constraints. This is a must-watch and nuanced Conversation alive to the complexities and real-world consequences of a pressing subject that has become so central to our politics.

Donald Trump will face major geopolitical challenges when he takes office. 

In this Conversation, Eric Edelman, former ambassador to Turkey and Finland and Under Secretary of Defense, shares his perspective. As he explains, Trump will face major decisions on all areas of the geopolitical landscape early in his term. Edelman argues that Israel’s military successes have weakened Iran’s “axis of resistance” and opened up new opportunities—but also raise the threat of Iranian nuclear breakout. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine rages, the situation in Europe remains uncertain, and China’s military buildup increases. To meet the threats around the globe, we need to build up the military and defense industrial base, embrace American leadership, and strengthen our alliances. Will the Trump Administration do so?

How well might the political and legal norms of constitutional government fare in the second Trump administration?

To discuss, we are joined by Jack Goldsmith, distinguished law professor at Harvard and former Assistant Attorney General in the Office of Legal Counsel. As Goldsmith explains, Trump has expressed ambitions to exercise unprecedented control over the federal government, with plans to change the Civil Service and administrative agencies, and wield the pardon power aggressively, among other methods. While emphasizing the broad powers the president has to shape policy and personnel, Goldsmith discusses the future of checks and balances that protect the rule of law. To preserve the guardrails of government, Goldsmith emphasizes the role and responsibility of Congress, political appointees, and bureaucrats maintaining fidelity to constitutional duties.

What should we expect in Donald Trump’s second term?

To discuss, we are joined by John Bolton, who served as National Security Advisor in the Trump White House from 2018 to 2019 and with distinction in many prior Republican administrations. Drawing on insights from working closely with Trump in his first term, Bolton shares his perspective on what the second term might look like. Bolton argues Trump selected his cabinet nominees for “fealty” rather than competence—and he discusses the politicization and chaos in government agencies that could result. Bolton also considers the role of the Senate as a potential check on the president, and reflects more broadly on Trump’s approach to the presidency.

What do the results of the 2024 elections tell us about the state of American politics? Where might we be in 2026 and 2028?

To discuss, we are joined again by Ron Brownstein, a senior editor at The Atlantic and a senior political analyst at CNN. According to Brownstein, the presidential election was a “national verdict of voters [who] were dissatisfied with what they got over the past four years. And whatever doubts they had about the alternative seemed to them less risky than continuing on the course that we are on.” As Brownstein explains, the data show many of Trump’s own voters had serious concerns about Trump and his policies. To this end, he argues that elections in 2026 and 2028 likely will turn on whether Trump pursues extreme and unpopular policies that cater to his base or governs in a way that appeals to the broader electorate.

Where does the race stand two weeks before Election Day? 

To discuss, we are joined by Ronald Brownstein, a senior editor at The Atlantic and a senior political analyst at CNN.  According to Brownstein, the election is “closely balanced on the knife’s edge” and very subtle shifts among coalitions in the swing states easily could change the outcome. Brownstein shares his perspective on possible paths to victory for each candidate based on the current data, and what we ought to look for on the campaign trail and in the polling during the last days of the campaign. 

Following the election, Brownstein will rejoin us for a special Conversation to analyze and reflect on what the 2024 returns reveal about the electorate—and what we can learn from these trends about how our politics might play out in the years ahead. 

How would the economy do under a Trump or Harris administration?  

To discuss, we are joined again by the distinguished Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term. Furman shares his perspective on a wide variety of subjects including tariffs, trade policy with allies and adversaries, the dangers of a politicized Fed, inflation, and immigration. Forecasting economic policies under the two potential administrations, Furman contends that Kamala Harris would track Biden’s policies to some degree, but “her instincts are just a little bit more towards wanting to pal around with CEOs than labor leaders relative to Joe Biden.” As for Trump, Furman argues that “there’s one Trump, with responsible advisors, who doesn’t do anything he says on the campaign and things turn out basically fine. There’s another Trump who does follow through, and that could be a downside for growth and a large downside in terms of higher inflation.” 

We face an ever more dangerous geopolitical environment. In this Conversation, Princeton professor and AEI nonresident senior fellow Aaron Friedberg analyzes America’s foreign policy challenges and considers how a Harris or Trump administration might approach the threats we face. According to Friedberg, the cooperation among Russia, China, Iran, North Korea “has grown more and more sophisticated and complex” in recent times, making the challenges in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia more difficult to address—as well as more interrelated. Friedberg argues that the volatility in American domestic politics makes predicting the American approach to countering these threats increasingly uncertain. As he puts it, “If Trump comes back, the range of possible policies in each of these areas is just much wider than would have been typically the case in the past”—and a key question with Harris is "To what extent does she share [Biden’s] gut instinct regarding American leadership?"

How might Tuesday’s debate shape the race in the weeks ahead? How can Harris capitalize on her performance? Will the debate affect the results in November? 
 
With less than eight weeks to Election Day, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville shares his advice to the Harris campaign and analysis of the race. As he puts it: “People still, for better or worse, know Trump. [Harris] had a great debate, a great convention, but still has some more to fill out here.” According to Carville, now Harris might benefit from giving speeches on issues from the economy to foreign policy. The Democratic base, he argues, “will allow her great leeway in appealing to more unaligned voters—and Trump doesn’t have that.” Carville and Kristol also discuss whether another debate will happen, Trump’s struggles to focus on issues, and possible key moments ahead in an extraordinary campaign.  

Where do things stand in the race after the Democratic convention and before the presidential debate? 

When veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik joined us the day after Biden’s withdrawal from the race he explained why the next month could be decisive in the fight to define Harris. Reflecting on the first five weeks of the campaign, Sosnik argues that she has been successful: “so far Harris is winning the battle about the campaign being about change, and she is the change candidate—making the campaign about the future and not about the past.” However, he cautions that the race remains very close. As he puts it: “Harris is still running behind the Biden-Harris numbers in 2020, and measurably behind. So, she does have more ground she’s going to need to gain.” Sosnik shares his in-depth analysis of what the campaigns might do going forward, why the upcoming debate may be the most consequential in contemporary history, and the current dynamics in battleground states where the race will be decided.

Where do things stand in the race now that the matchup is set?

According to veteran Democratic strategist James Carville, the replacement of Joe Biden by Kamala Harris has improved prospects for the Democrats—though “not as much as some people think.” As he puts it: “It’s like I tell people, if you have an infected wisdom tooth and you go to the dentist and they pull it out, you feel on top of the world—[but] God, you really don’t feel any better than you would if you never had the infected wisdom tooth.” 
 
In a race that may be won at the margins, as in 2016 and 2020, Carville explains that Harris must define herself and her candidacy successfully where she still isn’t well known. According to Carville, she has the opportunity to brand Trump as “past, yesterday, and stale”—but the Harris-Walz campaign must have a forward-looking message and run on concrete policy proposals. Carville also discusses the selection of Walz, the mood at Mar-a-Lago since Biden’s withdrawal from the race, how the Trump strategy against Harris might develop, and offers advice about whether to have and how to handle a Harris-Trump debate.

The withdrawal of Joe Biden from the presidential race three weeks after his disastrous debate performance, followed by the swift decision by Democrats to select Kamala Harris as the presumptive nominee, leaves us in uncharted waters. According to veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, the broad contours of the 2024 election remain: “It’s a narrowly divided country. It’s a fairly even race. But Trump has the advantage in an Electoral College system that [today] favors Republicans.” Yet this election has been like no other.

In this Conversation, Sosnik shares his analysis and practical advice for the next four weeks and the next four months. Sosnik explains why the next month may prove decisive. Each campaign now is racing to define Harris, and the stakes of the Democratic convention in August are higher than they have been in many decades. In the weeks ahead, Harris faces the daunting challenge of both running on strengths of the Biden-Harris record and presenting a case for the future that is her own—all as she decides on the most effective case to prosecute against Trump. This will not take place in a vacuum. At the same time, Harris will face an onslaught from the Trump campaign, which has done little advertising during the past weeks and has a war chest to spend on defining her. Sosnik warns that, to win, it is essential for Harris to avoid the peril of presidential candidates like Mitt Romney, John Kerry, and Bob Dole, who have allowed their opponents to define them before their nominations. 

As Sosnik puts it: “Success always begets more success in politics. So the more successful she is at consolidating the party, demonstrating her capacity to be the nominee, the more successful she is on the run-up to the convention, the more likely the convention is to be a success.” To that end, he argues that Harris's decisions over the next weeks—about her campaign staff, defining her vision, organizing a successful Democratic convention, selecting a strong vice-presidential candidate, etc.—likely will determine her prospects in November.

What should we make of Trump’s plans for the federal bureaucracy in a second term? In recent days, there has been extensive reporting about “Project 2025,” an agenda and road map that openly aims to politicize the civil service and render it more compliant with the executive. In this Conversation, we are joined by University of Pennsylvania political scientist John DiIulio, one of the leading experts on the civil service and bureaucracy in America. DiIulio takes the Project 2025 proposal seriously. But he argues that attacks on the permanent bureaucracy as a “Deep State" are misleading, because the federal agencies all are accountable and subject to Congressional oversight in meaningful ways. DiIulio considers the threat of a second Trump administration prioritizing loyalty over competency in the bureaucracy, the history of the civil service in the US, and what meaningful reforms of the bureaucracy might look like. DiIulio argues that above all we should focus on reforming the use of federal contractors, which remains the most unaccountable part of American government.