Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)
| Titre | Date | Durée | |
|---|---|---|---|
| What you're actually getting paid in, with Leila Clark | 23 juil. 2026 | 01:04:00 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Leila Clark, founder of Stardrift and formerly a software engineer at Jane Street, to discuss her essay "What Are You Getting Paid In?" They cover how a Jane Street manager staffed the firm's least lucrative corner by paying people in culture, why Ken Griffin is worth roughly fifty Taylor Swifts, and how a longtime Google product manager quietly ends up with Grammy-winner money. The conversation ranges from academia's brutal tournament structure and YC as a script to founderdom to the one currency Taylor Swift holds that Ken Griffin's $50 billion buys only awkwardly: a restaurant reservation anywhere in New York. – – Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury's new feature Command brings an LLM directly into your banking interface, so checking balances, finding invoices, or sending a wire is as easy as asking. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/. If attackers are using AI to weaponize code faster than any team can review it, your scanners won't save you. Chainguard builds libraries and container images from source, verified all the way down, with near-zero CVEs and zero malware. Build safely at https://www.chainguard.dev/. What's the point of building faster with AI if your database can't keep up? MongoDB's native data model mirrors the language LLMs already speak. Ship at the speed of AI while staying ACID compliant at Fortune 500 scale. Start building at https://mongodb.com/ai. – Links:
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| What LLMs can and can't do for writers, with Clara Collier of Asterisk Magazine | 16 juil. 2026 | 01:35:35 | |
Patrick McKenzie is joined by returning guest Clara Collier, editor-in-chief of Asterisk Magazine, to discuss how working writers and reporters actually use LLMs. Patrick walks through the machinery behind his recent SPLC reporting, including "parallel construction" with LLMs: when sources can't go on the record, models can surface public confirmation of the same facts in unguarded podcast interviews, press releases, and prepared remarks. They also cover why the best smoking gun sat unnoticed on the coalition's own Twitter account, the David O. Selznick theory of the corporate memo, and where hardball politics in a democracy ends and crimes begin. – – Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury's new feature Command brings an LLM directly into your banking interface, so checking balances, finding invoices, or sending a wire is as easy as asking. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/. What's the point of building faster with AI if your database can't keep up? MongoDB's native data model mirrors the language LLMs already speak. Ship at the speed of AI while staying ACID compliant at Fortune 500 scale. Start building at https://mongodb.com/ai. If attackers are using AI to weaponize code faster than any team can review it, your scanners won't save you. Chainguard builds libraries and container images from source, verified all the way down, with near-zero CVEs and zero malware. Build safely at https://www.chainguard.dev/. – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Preview (00:51) Intro (01:16) How legacy media feels about LLMs (05:02) Writing as thinking: why the byline matters (08:51) LLMs as feedback partners and simulated readers (12:39) The future of the corporate memo (15:58) Sponsor: Mercury | MongoDB (18:30) Memos, de-skilling, and thinking on paper (20:02) David O. Selznick's memos and the MrBeast production doc (23:28) Can models introspect on their own work? (30:06) Sponsor: Chainguard (31:27) The SPLC investigation (37:07) Chains of evidence and protecting sources (45:20) Parallel construction with LLMs (49:41) Mining podcasts for unguarded admissions (59:35) Deepen your strengths, don't just patch weaknesses (1:03:34) The smoking gun the LLM missed (1:04:48) Hardball politics versus crimes (1:10:48) Why a payments newsletter reported a political story (1:16:19) Reporting stories that will be weaponized (1:20:24) The tech right and internal company politics (1:23:44) Debanking discourse and drawing distinctions (1:30:21) Hate speech, social sanctions, and owning decisions (1:34:51) Wrap | |||
| YouTube economics now, with Justin Kuiper | 09 juil. 2026 | 01:19:27 | |
In this episode of Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Justin Kuiper, a longtime writer for MatPat's Game Theory family of channels and now creator of Proof Positive, to discuss the microeconomics of YouTube. They break down how creators actually get paid — from $3–$20 CPMs and the leaky funnel where a million views yields perhaps 50,000 actual ad views, to sponsor reads, Super Chats, and MrBeast selling chocolate bars as his own advertiser of last resort. Along the way, they explore how a successful channel becomes a firm that absorbs specialist labor from less successful peers, why the algorithm gives every upload a trial by attention, and what parasocial spending has in common with Mark Twain's speaking circuit. – – Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury's new feature Command brings an LLM directly into your banking interface, so checking balances, finding invoices, or sending a wire is as easy as asking. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/.
What's the point of building faster with AI if your database can't keep up? MongoDB's native data model mirrors the language LLMs already speak. Ship at the speed of AI while staying ACID compliant at Fortune 500 scale. Start building at https://mongodb.com/ai. – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Preview (00:45) How creators make money on YouTube (04:06) CPMs and the international ad market (06:36) From solo creator to firm: working for MatPat (09:28) Sponsors: Mercury | Chainguard (12:30) From solo creator to firm: working for MatPat (cont’d) (13:49) YouTube as a farm league for other industries (17:15) Why now is the best time to start: discovery and universal basic attention (20:47) Power users and how recommendations work (24:23) Brand safety, rabbit holes, and the money laundering short (27:38) Fads, timing, and the day-two piece (35:52) The production function: scripts, shot lists, and editing labor (42:14) The aesthetics of authenticity (46:58) Sponsor: MongoDB (47:47) Why more people should make videos (53:52) Content marketing, sponsor reads, and remnant inventory (01:00:24) Chocolate bars, paint sets, and creator products (01:05:00) Parasocial relationships and the market in status (01:16:43) Where to find Justin: Proof Positive | |||
| The structural footprint of a bank run | 02 juil. 2026 | 00:40:09 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his 2023 essay "Deposit Franchises as Natural Hedges," written seven weeks into that year's banking crisis, making the case that deposit franchises are a natural hedge against interest rate risk (one regional banks were quietly encouraged to sell off by loading up on agency MBS). He walks through why "sweat and smiles" deposits were assumed to be sticky enough to fund long-duration assets, why that assumption broke down for retail and sophisticated depositors alike once rates rose, and how the resulting losses moved through bank balance sheets. Patrick closes with two years of hindsight: what the essay got right and wrong about how bad it would get. – – Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury's new feature Command brings an LLM directly into your banking interface, so checking balances, finding invoices, or sending a wire is as easy as asking. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/. What's the point of building faster with AI if your database can't keep up? MongoDB's native data model mirrors the language LLMs already speak. Ship at the speed of AI while staying ACID compliant at Fortune 500 scale. Start building at https://mongodb.com/ai. If attackers are using AI to weaponize code faster than any team can review it, your scanners won't save you. Chainguard builds libraries and container images from source, verified all the way down, with near-zero CVEs and zero malware. Build safely at https://www.chainguard.dev/. – Links:
Timestamps: (00:00) Intro | |||
| Forty ways to pay for coffee in Japan | 25 juin 2026 | 00:35:20 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his 2021 essay "Payments in Japan," tracing how Japanese consumers navigate a landscape with dozens of competing payment methods at once: credit cards, electronic money, QR-code super apps, convenience-store cash vouchers, and bank transfers. Along the way he covers the JFTC's campaign to force credit card networks to disclose interchange rates, how Rakuten and 7-Eleven each bought a bank to solve a payments problem blocking their core business, why PayPay's subsidized 2018 launch let it run away with the QR code market, and why konbini payments remain popular despite a user experience frozen in the late 1990s. – – Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury's new feature Command brings an LLM directly into your banking interface, so checking balances, finding invoices, or sending a wire is as easy as asking. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/. What's the point of building faster with AI if your database can't keep up? MongoDB's native data model mirrors the language LLMs already speak. Ship at the speed of AI while staying ACID compliant at Fortune 500 scale. Start building at https://mongodb.com/ai. – Links:
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| The factory behind your home loan | 18 juin 2026 | 00:26:50 | |
Patrick McKenzie reads from his 2022 Bits About Money essay on mortgages, making the case that a mortgage is best understood as a manufactured product, not a simple loan between a bank and a customer. He walks through the assembly line behind every home loan, the loan officer and back-office staff who build the 700-page document. Then he traces the supply chain it gets sold into, where GSEs insure against non-payment risk, servicers buy the right to collect monthly checks, and pension funds and other private capital end up holding the economic exposure, because they want it more than banks do. Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury offers the best wire experience anywhere: fast, reliable, and free for domestic U.S. wires, so you can stay focused on growing your business. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:26) Mortgages are a manufactured product (04:19) Who manufactures mortgages? (07:08) Who buys mortgages? (07:42) The risk of non-payment (10:08) Sponsor: Mercury | Granola (14:35) The risk of failing to service a mortgage correctly (17:51) Every other risk you could imagine, of which there are many (24:04) Scratching the tip of the iceberg (25:10) More about flow meters (26:24) Wrap | |||
| How brokerage transfers actually work | 04 juin 2026 | 00:43:43 | |
Patrick McKenzie reads from his 2024 Bits About Money essay on ACATS, the Automated Customer Account Transfer Service that governs how Americans move investment accounts between brokerages, then updates it with regulatory developments (and industry infighting) from early 2026. The essay covers why a system underpinning trillions of dollars in assets was deliberately designed to skip verifying whether transfers are actually authorized, what the three-business-day shot clock means in practice, and how a bad actor armed with a stolen identity and a mobile app can drain someone's retirement account before they notice it's gone. (Good news, though: they’ll almost certainly get it back. Bad news: quite stressful, and it often isn’t obvious when staring at the zero that this is a recoverable condition.) – – If you have more interesting hobbies than managing your money, Mercury Personal is built for you. It allows you to automate movement between accounts—allocating paychecks and tax prep the moment they hit—with a sensible permissions model for partners or accountants. It works the way tech people expect banking to work. Go to mercury.com/personal to experience banking built by the same folks Patrick trusts for his business. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS – Links:
Timestamps: | |||
| Wrong numbers and why they survive, with Aaron Brown | 14 mai 2026 | 00:55:36 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Aaron Brown, author of Wrong Number, to examine why institutions that produce bad statistics face so few consequences for doing so. They trace the pattern from Aaron's 1975 summer job, where two credentialed experts confidently produced opposite conclusions about whether American tractors ran on diesel or gasoline, through decades of case studies involving the NTSB, COVID-era research, and the eviction moratorium. Along the way they discuss why financial markets are unusually good at error-correction, why "wanna bet?" functions as a tax on bullshit, and what it means that every senior economist Aaron told about the tractor problem simply laughed and topped it with a worse story. – – Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury offers the best wire experience anywhere: fast, reliable, and free for domestic U.S. wires, so you can stay focused on growing your business. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS – Links:
– (00:00) Intro | |||
| Defendant, Censor, Politico, Spy | 08 mai 2026 | 01:05:18 | |
The improbable but true story of how non-profits operating a private intelligence agency to combat terrorism decided to interfere with campaign infrastructure in a U.S. election. This piece includes original public interest reporting, following on the previous episode on how the Southern Poverty Law Center became financial infrastructure. If you have previously read Bits about Money's reporting on this subject, note there are two major additions here: 1) direct evidence of interference in campaign infrastructure for a declared candidate in a U.S. election, which was newly developed after our original reporting and 2) responses (and lack thereof) from the non-profits at issue. – – Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury offers the best wire experience anywhere: fast, reliable, and free for domestic U.S. wires, so you can stay focused on growing your business. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS Networking infrastructure has a way of accumulating technical debt faster than almost anything else in IT. Meter handles the full stack (wired, wireless, and cellular) as a single integrated solution: designed, deployed, and managed end-to-end so there's only one vendor to call when something goes wrong. Visit meter.com/complexsystems to book a demo. –
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro | |||
| How the SPLC became financial infrastructure | 01 mai 2026 | 00:51:06 | |
Patrick McKenzie reads from his latest Bits About Money essay, walking through why bank fraud charges are a prosecutor's favorite tool, how the Bank Secrecy Act's surveillance regime is designed to force criminals into impossible tradeoffs, and why lying to a bank is one of the easiest crimes to prove. He then applies that framework to the April 2026 DOJ indictment of the Southern Poverty Law Center, tracing how a covert informant-payment scheme run through fictitious shell entities to become a near-textbook bank fraud case. Part 2 releases next week. Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury offers the best wire experience anywhere: fast, reliable, and free for domestic U.S. wires, so you can stay focused on growing your business. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS Networking infrastructure has a way of accumulating technical debt faster than almost anything else in IT. Meter handles the full stack (wired, wireless, and cellular) as a single integrated solution: designed, deployed, and managed end-to-end so there's only one vendor to call when something goes wrong. Visit meter.com/complexsystems to book a demo. – Links:
– Timestamps: | |||
| The honey badger of payments | 23 avr. 2026 | 00:29:46 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his classic Bits about Money essay on how checks shaped the entire American payments infrastructure, from the origins of ACH to why a standard US bank account is, technically, a credit product. He then examines what happened when DOGE tried, via Executive Order 14247, to eliminate federal paper check disbursements by September 2025. The carve-outs Treasury eventually had to make map almost exactly onto the essay's original argument. Checks are the honey badger of payments: the numbers keep dwindling, but the edge cases are irreducible, and the second-best pathway for reaching them doesn't really exist yet. – Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury offers the best wire experience anywhere: fast, reliable, and free for domestic U.S. wires, so you can stay focused on growing your business. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS – Links:
– Timestamps: (01:12) A brief digression for people who use functioning payment forms (02:45) Check settlement in the pre-computer era (07:28) Some funny consequences of checks underpinning everything (13:20) Money in transit (14:42) Sponsors: Mercury | Granola (17:56) Money in transit (part 2) (21:12) Deposit accounts and their discontents (23:25) The DOGE postscript (29:03) Honey Badger Jingle | |||
| Cash received is not revenue earned | 16 avr. 2026 | 00:33:10 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his classic Bits about Money essay explaining why revenue recognition in software is more complicated than most engineers, founders, and financial reporters think. The essay covers the accounting rules behind SaaS subscriptions, the deferred revenue problem that surprised him when he sold his own companies, and the surprisingly intricate standards governing virtual goods in mobile games. He then turns to AI labs, where rapid revenue growth has prompted questions about whether the numbers mean what they seem. They mostly do, but understanding why requires knowing the difference between bookings, deferred revenue, and a minimum commit. – Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury offers the best wire experience anywhere: fast, reliable, and free for domestic U.S. wires, so you can stay focused on growing your business. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro | |||
| Your bank balance isn’t in the bank, and other alchemy | 09 avr. 2026 | 00:48:09 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his classic Bits About Money essay on why your bank deposit is not what you think it is. He explains the capital stack that makes deposits appear riskless while funding genuinely risky businesses, and why the "no questions asked" property of money took the United States roughly a hundred years to engineer. Patrick updates the essay with commentary on SVB's collapse, the Voyager collapse and emergency injunctions about the finer points of ACH plumbing, and the GENIUS Act's stablecoin interest ban. He argues that crypto keeps rediscovering the same hard truth: things that behave like deposits without being deposits eventually break. When they break, they will break other structures they have wormed into, and they will tend to have wormed into a lot, because deposits are extremely useful and are perceived to never break. – Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury offers the best wire experience anywhere: fast, reliable, and free for domestic U.S. wires, so you can stay focused on growing your business. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com. Networking infrastructure has a way of accumulating technical debt faster than almost anything else in IT. Meter handles the full stack (wired, wireless, and cellular) as a single integrated solution: designed, deployed, and managed end-to-end so there's only one vendor to call when something goes wrong. Visit meter.com/complexsystems to book a demo. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro | |||
| Payroll, pins, and punch cards | 02 avr. 2026 | 00:47:33 | |
In this episode of Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie riffs on why public sector payroll modernization is even more likely to fail than the typical public software procurement project. He then goes into a wider discussion about payroll providers and their role as software, payment rails, and a sink for an enduring controversy in political economy. We want robust state capacity and hate income taxes. He breaks down the history of tax withholding as a state-deputized collection mechanism and explains how providers like ADP manage a lucrative "conveyor belt" of money to earn interest on the "float". Finally, he discusses how fintech innovations like Earned Wage Access (EWA) are providing a pro-social, daily-pay alternative to predatory payday loans. – – Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury offers the best wire experience anywhere: fast, reliable, and free for domestic U.S. wires, so you can stay focused on growing your business. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com. Networking infrastructure has a way of accumulating technical debt faster than almost anything else in IT. Meter handles the full stack (wired, wireless, and cellular) as a single integrated solution: designed, deployed, and managed end-to-end so there's only one vendor to call when something goes wrong. Visit meter.com/complexsystems to book a demo. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS – Links:
– (00:00) Intro | |||
| Delve into compliance theatre | 26 mars 2026 | 00:56:43 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) explains how compliance regimes designed to be viral brought many more firms into the scope of frameworks like SOC 2. This created a market demand for compliance-on-the-cheap by companies like Delve. Delve has been accused in an anonymous bit of investigative journalism as engaging in Potemkin compliance. Patrick contrasts what real audits look like with what Delve allegedly delivered. He argues that selling compliance theater as compliance is fraud, not the sort of benign rule-breaking celebrated in startup culture. – – Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury offers the best wire experience anywhere: fast, reliable, and free for domestic U.S. wires, so you can stay focused on growing your business. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com. Networking infrastructure has a way of accumulating technical debt faster than almost anything else in IT. Meter handles the full stack (wired, wireless, and cellular) as a single integrated solution: designed, deployed, and managed end-to-end so there's only one vendor to call when something goes wrong. Visit meter.com/complexsystems to book a demo. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS Building and maintaining marketing websites shouldn’t slow down your engineers. Framer gives design and marketing teams an all-in-one platform to ship landing pages, microsites, or full site redesigns instantly—without engineering bottlenecks. Get 30% off Framer Pro at framer.com/complexsystems. – – | |||
| Understanding consumer debt collections: the underbelly of finance | 19 mars 2026 | 00:44:30 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his classic Bits about Money essay explaining why the debt collection industry earns its “river of effluvia” metaphor. From the accounting standards that force banks to "charge off" delinquent accounts to the large CSV files that constitute the only proof of a debt's existence, he explores how the system prioritizes accounting finality over legal and factual accuracy. The conversation reveals why the single most effective way to resolve a debt is often forcing a collector to read and write paper. They can’t, operationally, and don’t see that as an impediment to making money, especially because the paper will often document their lies and crimes. – If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS Building and maintaining marketing websites shouldn’t slow down your engineers. Framer gives design and marketing teams an all-in-one platform to ship landing pages, microsites, or full site redesigns instantly—without engineering bottlenecks. Get 30% off Framer Pro at framer.com/complexsystems. – – | |||
| Inference engineering and the real-world deployment of LLMs, with Philip Kiely | 12 mars 2026 | 01:23:45 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Philip Kiely, early employee at Baseten, discuss the inference stack: the critical layer of software and hardware that sits between a model’s weights and a user’s prompt. They cover inference engineering, how intermediate layers are evolving over a technical stack that is changing every six months, and how sophisticated organizations are actually consuming LLMs beyond just writing their questions into chatbot apps. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/inference-engineering-with-philip-kiely/ –
Networking infrastructure has a way of accumulating technical debt faster than almost anything else in IT. Meter handles the full stack (wired, wireless, and cellular) as a single integrated solution: designed, deployed, and managed end-to-end so there's only one vendor to call when something goes wrong. Visit meter.com/complexsystems to book a demo.
Links:
– Timestamps: | |||
| Secrets designed to be divulged and other payment oddities | 05 mars 2026 | 00:25:30 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) deconstructs the "original sin" of payments: building a global financial substrate on shared secrets that were distributed promiscuously to function. He examines the multi-decade game of Whack-a-Mole played by the industry to balance the "optimal amount of fraud" against the catastrophic conversion hit of high-friction security. From the physical failure of terminal buttons to the smartphone finally solving the lifecycle problem of cryptographic tokens, Patrick explores the technical and social reasons why we’ve moved from "something you know" to the "continuity of access" provided by the device in your pocket. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/secondary-auth/
If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS – Links:
– Timestamps: | |||
| Understanding government procurement, with Luke Farrell | 26 févr. 2026 | 01:20:45 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Luke Farrell examine the structural "technical imagination" gap that prevents the US government from delivering high-fidelity digital services. They discuss why states routinely pay full price 29 times for the same buggy codebase, why failure is the default outcome, and why rooms full of government administrators cannot muster the expertise to say a two line code change should be trivial. They also discuss Luke’s work on the "means testing industrial complex,” why the government redundantly pays a private vendor to do a SQL query for information the IRS already knows, and what vendors would say about their own discontents. – Full transcript available here: http://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/understanding-government-procurement-with-luke-farrell/ –
Building and maintaining marketing websites shouldn’t slow down your engineers. Framer gives design and marketing teams an all-in-one platform to ship landing pages, microsites, or full site redesigns instantly—without engineering bottlenecks. Get 30% off Framer Pro at framer.com/complexsystems. – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro | |||
| APIs of evil: studying fraud as infrastructure | 12 févr. 2026 | 00:51:21 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads an essay about "industrial-scale" fraud and why it should be treated as a professional business process rather than a series of isolated accidents. He explains how fraudsters leverage specialized supply chains—shared CPAs, incorporation agents, and "least attentive" banks—to loot public funds. Patrick argues that the government’s "pay-and-chase" model is fundamentally broken and suggests that simple "proof of work" functions, like a 30-second cell phone video of a workspace, could provide the visceral signal that paperwork lacks, and examines the state’s lack of "object permanence" regarding serial fraudsters and how scaled data provides the defense-side advantage needed to catch modern frauds. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/fraud-as-infrastructure/ – Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury offers the best wire experience anywhere: fast, reliable, and free for domestic U.S. wires, so you can stay focused on growing your business. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com. Mercury is a fintech company, not an FDIC-insured bank. Banking services provided through Choice Financial Group and Column N.A., Members FDIC. Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro | |||
| Why check cashing businesses exist | 05 févr. 2026 | 00:38:25 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads an essay about the business of check cashing, a misunderstood industry. He explains why cashing a check is actually a "new credit extension" where the bank bets on both the writer and the payee, and why profit-maximizing institutions often decline to bank individuals who represent even a "material risk" of a single bounced check. From the manual "rituals" of endorsement to the way fintechs like Ingo Money and Cash App use persistent identity to narrow the risk envelope, Patrick examines the technical and social reasons why some people pay to access their own wages, others don’t, and whether we can do anything about that. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/check-cashing/ – Mercury is a fintech company, not an FDIC-insured bank. Banking services provided through Choice Financial Group and Column N.A., Members FDIC. Links:
– Timestamps: | |||
| Claude Code makes several thousand dollars in 30 minutes, with Patrick McKenzie | 29 janv. 2026 | 00:40:34 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) walks through a coding session with Claude Code to demonstrate what the fuss is about. The business problem: recovering failed subscription payments that required coordinating APIs across Stripe, Ghost, and email providers, and the surprising experience of watching Claude read documentation, resolve dependency conflicts, and make sensible security choices. The episode offers a pedantic level of detail on why the sharpest technologists use words like “fundamentally transformed” to describe the impact of LLMs on coding. – Full annotated transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/claude-code/ – Building and maintaining marketing websites shouldn’t slow down your engineers. Framer gives design and marketing teams an all-in-one platform to ship landing pages, microsites, or full site redesigns instantly—without engineering bottlenecks. Get 30% off Framer Pro at framer.com/complexsystems. Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:21) All engineering work happens in a business context (03:47) Payment failures briefly taxonomized (08:25) Now follows a conversation with Claude Code (20:37) Sponsor: Framer (21:53) Conversation with Claude Code (continued) (39:07) My final thoughts on this (41:15) Wrap | |||
| We should stop burning pharma trials’ lab notes, with Ruxandra Teslo | 22 janv. 2026 | 01:17:21 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ruxandra Teslo to discuss why drug development keeps getting more expensive despite revolutionary new treatment modalities from GLP-1 agonists to gene therapies. They discuss Eroom’s Law (Moore’s Law in reverse) and Ruxandra's Common Technical Document Project, which aims to build the "Stack Overflow of clinical development" by making regulatory submissions publicly accessible. This will fill a present hole in the education of researchers, lower barriers for small biotechs, and accelerate drug discovery. Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ruxandra-teslo/ – – | |||
| Your support rep is also trapped in this call, with Des Traynor of Intercom | 15 janv. 2026 | 00:53:44 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) sits down with Intercom co-founder Des Traynor to examine customer support through the lens of Conway's Law, Goodhart's Law, and several decades of accumulated organizational scar tissue. They discuss how AI agents are democratizing white-glove service, why modern LLMs have retrained user expectations around “chatbots” very quickly, and the surprisingly liberating effect of talking to something that will never judge you for missing a loan payment. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/des-traynor/ – – Timestamps: | |||
| The magic spell that makes banks give you your money back | 08 janv. 2026 | 00:37:18 | |
Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) reads his latest Bits about Money essay explaining why he “loves Regulation E more than any rational person does.” He explains how Reg E created a privately-administered legal system processing over 100 million complaints annually—dwarfing the formal U.S. court system—and why banks are now trying to avoid these obligations for Zelle's nine figure fraud problem. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-magic-spell-reg-e/ – Building and maintaining marketing websites shouldn’t slow down your engineers. Framer gives design and marketing teams an all-in-one platform to ship landing pages, microsites, or full site redesigns instantly—without engineering bottlenecks. Get 30% off Framer Pro at framer.com/complexsystems. – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction | |||
| 2025 in review, with Sammy Cottrell | 03 janv. 2026 | 00:49:32 | |
Our annual year-in-review episode covers some recurring themes from 2025 and some behind-the-curtains discussion of running a podcast. Patrick McKenzie (patio11) sits down with producer Sammy Cottrell to discuss the most popular episodes of the year, the impact of AI coding tools, the challenges of video podcasting, Sammy's role as a "fixer" finding guests, and much more. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/2025-in-review-with-sammy-cottrell/ – Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro. – Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:38) Launching video podcasts this year (02:52) AI ethics and risk discussions (04:29) Supporting LessWrong and LightHaven (07:24) Adventures in AI-assisted hobbies (12:38) Most popular episodes of the year (19:45) Sponsor: Framer (20:52) Popular episodes (continued) (29:06) Setting up a podcast studio at Lighthaven (32:31) Internal company podcasts (38:03) Year in review and investigative journalism (43:02) Creating Isekai (49:13) Wrap | |||
| Gift cards and the fraud supply chain | 26 déc. 2025 | 00:13:47 | |
For this week's holiday-inspired Complex Systems, Patrick reads his essay from Bits about Money on the gift card paradox: a legitimate payments rail, yet also a primary vector for fraud that leaves victims without recourse. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/gift-cards-and-the-fraud-supply-chain/ – Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. Go to givewell.org, pick “Podcast” and enter Complex Systems at checkout. Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro. Links:
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| Understanding perpetual futures | 11 déc. 2025 | 00:24:54 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) walks through how perpetual futures work, from funding rates to liquidations to the surprise of automatic deleveraging. Perps are the dominant trading mechanism in crypto (6-8X larger than spot volume) and exist primarily to let exchanges and market makers run casinos more capital-efficiently. He explains why this intellectually interesting innovation probably won't escape crypto, despite what crypto enthusiasts might expect. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/understanding-perpetual-futures/ – Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro. – Links:
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| The economics of discovery, with Ben Reinhardt | 04 déc. 2025 | 00:45:15 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ben Reinhardt, founder of Speculative Technologies, to examine how science gets funded in the United States and why the current system leaves much to be desired. They dissect the outdated taxonomy of basic, applied, and development research, categories encoded into law that fail to capture how actual breakthrough science happens. Full transcript available here:
Sponsors: GiveWell & Framer Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. First-time donors can go to givewell.org, pick “Podcast” and enter COMPLEXSYSTEMS at checkout to get $100 matched. Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro. – Links: Speculative Technologies: https://spec.tech Ben Reinhardt's website: https://benjaminreinhardt.com Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro | |||
| Understanding equity at tech companies, with Billy Gallagher of Prospect | 20 nov. 2025 | 01:17:38 | |
Why do billions of dollars of stock trade hands based on napkin math and vibes? Billy Gallagher, CEO of Prospect and former Rippling employee, joins Patrick McKenzie (patio11) to walk through the information asymmetry that costs less-sophisticated employees massive amounts of money. From understanding when to early exercise options to navigating 83B elections and tender offers, they discuss the critical decisions that have a shot clock ticking the day you sign your offer letter. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/understanding-equity-at-tech-companies/ – Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro. Links:
– (00:44) Billy's professional journey (01:07) Equity management challenges (02:29) The importance of equity compensation (04:53) Equity grant structures in startups (06:09) Understanding vesting terms (07:09) The value of equity over time (08:48) The myth of options as lottery tickets (11:23) Career tailwinds from startup experience (14:25) Breaking into the tech industry (15:16) The role of equity in compensation (17:49) Employee equity plans and dilution (19:59) Sponsor: Framer (21:06) Stock options vs. RSUs (21:55) The decision to exercise options (27:11) Tax implications of exercising options (33:03) The role of HR in equity management (36:14) Bootleg spreadsheets and vibes-based investing (38:09) Navigating tax complexities in different scenarios (41:31) The importance of extended exercise windows (44:18) Challenges with tax residency and remote work (49:43) The role of accountants in managing equity (53:41) Understanding the 83(b) election and QSBS (01:01:03) Tender offers and secondary sales (01:08:38) Strategies for exercising and selling options (01:12:28) Navigating financial decisions in startups (01:16:59) Wrap | |||
| The $4,000 insurance policy designed to never pay out | 13 nov. 2025 | 00:27:14 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his essay on title insurance, a service designed to never be performed with a "laughably low" 5% loss ratio compared to 50-80% for almost all types of insurance. The typical American moves every seven to eight years, paying a $500 annual tax for basically no good or service. This is due to a quirk about how America records real estate ownership: it mostly doesn’t. Confused? Welcome to the joyous anarchy that is American real estate. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-4-000-insurance-policy-designed-to-never-pay-out/ – Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro. – Links:
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| How deposit insurance actually works | 06 nov. 2025 | 00:31:49 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his Bits about Money essay on deposit insurance, explaining this critical financial infrastructure, with some thoughts on its performance during 2023. He covers what deposit insurance actually covers (and critically, what it doesn't), how fintech users often misunderstand their exposure to counterparty risk, and the anatomy of bank failures. This is infrastructure you rely on as much as electricity: ubiquitous, critical, hopefully invisible, and worth understanding before it matters again. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-deposit-insurance-actually-works/ – Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro.
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| Home improvement lending with fewer bankers and more computers | 30 oct. 2025 | 00:28:48 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie reads his essay about the financial infrastructure that makes buying windows painless. When a window installer can originate, underwrite, and fund a $25,000 loan in 15 minutes before leaving your house, it's because four parties—window companies, facilitating platforms, specialized banks, and capital providers—have built a system that actually works. Patrick explains how modern consumer lending learned from 2008 to create better underwriting, clearer compliance, and properly distributed risk, all in service of enabling commerce in the real economy. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/home-improvement-lending/ – Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro. – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro | |||
| Talking to the Bank of England about systemic risk and systems engineering | 23 oct. 2025 | 01:31:37 | |
Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) shares his remarks to the Bank of England on critical vulnerabilities in financial infrastructure. Drawing from the July 2024 CrowdStrike outage which brought down teller systems at major US banks, Patrick discusses how regulatory guidance inadvertently created dangerous software monocultures. He also examines the stablecoin market, its impressive growth, and the elephant tethered to the room. He also delivers a message from Silicon Valley to other centers of power on the urgent necessity of waking up regarding AI, which almost the entire world currently far underrates. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/talking-to-the-bank-of-england/ – Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro. Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro | |||
| Narrative, mastery, and character bleed in games, with Ricki Heicklen | 16 oct. 2025 | 01:31:19 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Ricki Heicklen to discuss Metagame 2025, a conference where 250 attendees were divided into Purple and Orange teams competing for territories across campus. Patrick built a complete roguelike RPG in 25 days using LLMs, discovering that providing minimal world-building context transformed generic fantasy outputs into emotionally resonant storytelling. They discuss the power and responsibility of game designers, how games create pedagogical experiences that traditional teaching cannot, and what happens when the line between player identity and character identity starts to blur. – Full transcript available here: – Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro. Links:
– Timestamps: (00:25) Using games to teach trading (00:57) Game design conference insights (01:12) Ricki’s personal journey into game design (02:41) Exploring different game types (03:35) Challenges in game design (04:44) Metagame conference overview (08:23) Escape room design experience (11:25) Building a rogue-like game (15:35) Metagame mechanics and challenges (18:25) Sponsor: Framer (19:37) Metagame mechanics and challenges (part 2) (31:10) Event management and lessons learned (44:00) Game mechanics and player roles (45:09) Complex encounters and Plague Town (48:44) Moral choices and player decisions (50:59) Game design and narrative impact (55:36) Character bleed and real-world influence (01:02:00) Game design challenges and player agency (01:24:16) Community and player interaction (01:30:04) Wrap | |||
| Bits and bricks: Oliver Habryka on LessWrong, LightHaven, and community infrastructure | 09 oct. 2025 | 01:14:44 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Oliver Habryka, who runs Lightcone Infrastructure—the organization behind both the LessWrong forum and the Lighthaven conference venue in Berkeley. They explore how LessWrong became one of the most intellectually consequential forums on the internet, the surprising challenges of running a hotel with fractal geometry, and why Berkeley's building regulations include an explicit permission to plug in a lamp. The conversation ranges from fire codes that inadvertently shape traffic deaths, to nonprofit fundraising strategies borrowed from church capital campaigns, to why coordination is scarcer than money in philanthropy. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/bits-and-bricks-oliver-habryka/ Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro.
– Timestamps: (01:08) The origins and evolution of LessWrong (03:54) Challenges of running an online forum (05:57) Reviving LessWrong (14:51) The unique structure of Lighthaven (17:35) The complexities of conference venues (19:14) Sponsor: Framer (20:14) The realities of conference planning (25:32) Challenges of maintaining Lighthaven (29:54) Navigating permits and regulations (37:02) Impact of fire code regulations on traffic fatalities (39:06) Economic analysis of safety regulations (41:39) Housing policy and construction in Berkeley (43:30) Fundraising challenges in the nonprofit sector (46:44) Effective altruism and fundraising dynamics (54:20) Lessons from religious fundraising practices (01:05:36) Reflections on fundraising (01:13:26) Wrap | |||
| Building institutions that bend towards truth, with Clara Collier of Asterisk Magazine | 02 oct. 2025 | 01:12:10 | |
Patrick McKenzie is joined by Clara Collier, editor and publisher of Asterisk Magazine, to discuss how we create institutions that bend towards truth. Clara explains why she launched a quarterly print magazine in the Internet age. She traces how 19th century German universities invented the modern infrastructure for rewarding knowledge production and training researchers at scale, and where our public science communication falls short of that heritage. The conversation examines why institutional trust has declined, particularly around science communication and public health, and whether we can rebuild trust in knowledge-producing institutions. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/building-institutions-that-bend-towards-truth-with-clara-collier-of-asterisk-magazine/ Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro.
– (00:44) The birth of Asterisk Magazine (02:58) Challenges of print media (04:41) The media landscape and Twitter's influence (06:03) The art of long-form writing (13:08) Editing and copy editing in magazines (19:33) Sponsor: Framer (20:45) Editing and copy editing in magazines (part 2) (25:24) AI in writing and editing (30:33) The origins of research universities (34:19) The flawed promotion system in academia (34:40) The rise of research institutions (35:32) The birth of modern research culture in Germany (36:27) The global influence of German universities (40:13) The American university system vs. German system (41:50) The role of public and private partnerships in science (42:47) Challenges in science communication (56:22) The impact of COVID-19 on public trust in science (01:06:42) Historical perspectives on medical trust (01:11:15) Wrap | |||
| How blogging went legit, with Substack CEO Chris Best | 25 sept. 2025 | 00:46:50 | |
Patrick McKenzie is joined by Chris Best, CEO of Substack, to discuss how the platform created new economic infrastructure for independent media. They explore Substack's evolution from a simple newsletter tool to a full media network, the revenue guarantee program that attracted prominent writers, and the company's principled stance on press freedom during the "cancel culture" years. Chris explains how subscription-based business models create better incentive alignment than attention-based advertising, and discusses new features like AI-powered video production and Substack Defender, their legal protection program for writers facing lawsuits. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-blogging-went-legit-with-substack-ceo-chris-best/ – Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro. Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:53) The evolution of online publishing (01:20) Substack's business model (02:05) Challenges and opportunities in media (03:47) The role of engagement in media (06:03) The birth of Substack (08:58) Making paid newsletters accessible (10:54) Revenue guarantees and early success (13:05) Substack's impact on journalism (17:59) Freedom of the press and Substack's stance (19:24) Sponsor: Framer (20:40) Twitter's influence on journalism (24:09) Substack's role in modern media (26:04) The impact of cancel culture on journalism (26:53) The evolution of blogging and discourse (30:53) Substack's expansion into podcasts and video (32:42) AI and the future of media production (38:20) Substack defender (42:22) The growing network and future of Substack (46:03) Wrap | |||
| Prestige media, new media, and the US government, with Kelsey Piper | 19 sept. 2025 | 01:31:28 | |
Patrick McKenzie is joined again by Kelsey Piper, who has co-founded "The Argument" to revive principled liberal discourse after witnessing how coordinated social media campaigns replaced substantive disagreement in newsrooms. Their conversation traces this institutional breakdown from media to government, examining how DOGE's spreadsheet-driven governance nearly destroyed PEPFAR, America's most successful foreign aid program that had driven infant coffin manufacturers out of business across Africa. The discussion ultimately argues that rebuilding both effective journalism and competent governance requires returning to the hard work of engaging with ground-level reality rather than managing online narratives. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/prestige-media-new-media-with-kelsey-piper/ Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro. Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:31) The Argument (03:19) Challenges in modern journalism (06:42) The impact of social media on discourse (13:37) The role of Substack and independent media (20:13) Sponsor: Framer (21:30) The role of Substack and independent media (part 2) (30:59) The PEPFAR program and its importance (44:01) Impact of US aid cuts on global mortality (45:25) Substitution efforts and their limitations (47:54) PEPFAR's partial continuation and challenges (51:21) Consequences of administrative decisions (54:28) Elon Musk's influence and government actions (01:00:14) Challenges in government accountability (01:15:47) Reforming administrative processes (01:24:45) The role of community input in development (01:28:28) The power of constituent voices (01:30:15) Wrap | |||
| AI alignment, with Emmett Shear | 11 sept. 2025 | 01:27:28 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Emmett Shear, co-founder of Twitch, former interim CEO of OpenAI, who now runs Softmax AI alignment. Emmett argues that current AI safety approaches focused on "systems of control" are fundamentally flawed and proposes "organic alignment" instead—where AI systems develop genuine care for their local communities rather than following rigid rules. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-alignment-with-emmett-shear/ Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro.
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| Building software that survives contact with reality, with Will Wilson | 04 sept. 2025 | 01:15:41 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Will Wilson, CEO of Antithesis, to discuss the evolution of software testing from traditional approaches to cutting-edge deterministic simulation. Will explains how his team built technology that creates "time machines" for distributed systems, enabling developers to find and debug complex failures that would be nearly impossible to reproduce in traditional testing environments. They explore how this approach scales from finding novel bugs in Super Mario Brothers to ensuring the reliability of critical financial and infrastructure systems, and discuss the implications for a future where AI writes increasingly more code. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/software-testing-with-will-wilson/ – Sponsor: Framer is a design and publishing platform that collapses the toolchain between wireframes and production-ready websites. Design, iterate, and publish in one workspace. Start free at framer.com/design with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS for a free month of Framer Pro. Recommended in this episode:
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| Defense, drones, and military procurement, with Bean of Naval Gazing | 28 août 2025 | 01:02:47 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Bean, a pseudonymous defense industry expert, to explore the intellectual crossovers between military and civilian domains. The conversation reveals how the defense industry's fundamental constraint of having only one customer (a monopsony) creates entirely different incentives than tech, leading to conservatism and 30-50 year product lifecycles. Bean argues that drones are largely modern iterations of cruise missiles we've had since the 1950s, and explains why current anti-drone defenses make swarm attacks less threatening than headlines suggest. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/defense-with-bean-of-naval-gazing/ – Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC. Recommended in this episode:
–– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:29) The overlap between tech and defense (01:35) Operations research in World War II (02:55) Mathematical insights and military strategies (05:28) The role of operations research in modern warfare (16:59) Tech and defense (Part 1) (19:48) Sponsor: Mercury (21:00) Tech and defense (Part 2) (26:07) Economics behind the defense industry (32:07) SpaceX's early challenges and achievements (33:00) The Super Hornet development story (34:39) Military procurement lessons (37:42) Aerospace industry retention rates (38:42) Lockheed Martin's dominance and supply chain (40:55) Drone technology and military applications (46:53) Anti-drone defenses and future warfare (48:01) Naval warfare and historical perspectives (01:01:03) Wrap | |||
| AI and the great developer speed-up, with Joel Becker of METR | 21 août 2025 | 01:04:04 | |
This week on Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Joel Becker from METR. They discuss groundbreaking research on AI coding assistants. Joel et al’s randomized controlled trial of 16 expert developers working on major open source projects revealed a counterintuitive finding: despite predictions of 24-40% speed improvements, developers actually took 19% longer to complete tasks when using AI tools, even though they retrospectively believed they were 20% faster. The conversation explores why even sophisticated professionals struggle to accurately assess their own productivity with AI tools, the industrial organization of software development, and the implications for AI's recursive self-improvement in research and development. It also touches on other perspectives from software developers using these tools professionally, and where we can expect them to improve rapidly. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-great-developer-speed-up-with-joel-becker/ – Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC. Recommended in this episode:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:34) Understanding AI evaluation methods (02:04) METR's unique approach to AI evaluation (03:10) The evolution of AI capabilities (06:44) AI as coding assistants (09:15) Research on AI's impact on developer productivity (13:55) Sponsor: Mercury (15:07) Challenges in measuring developer productivity (20:38) Insights from the research paper (31:26) The formalities of software development (32:07) Automated tools and human discussions (32:47) AI and style transfer in software (34:35) The role of comments in AI coding (36:51) The future of AI in software engineering (40:25) Economic implications of AI in software (46:53) Challenges and risks of AI in software (59:03) Security concerns with AI-generated code (01:04:59) Wrap | |||
| How banks actually work (and don't work) | 14 août 2025 | 00:34:59 | |
In this solo episode, Patrick McKenzie reads his classic essay "Seeing Like a Bank," exploring why financial institutions often appear to have no memory of previous customer interactions despite being excellent at tracking money itself. He breaks down the complex web of legacy systems, tiered support structures, and regulatory constraints that create Kafka-esque experiences for bank customers. Using the lens of institutional legibility borrowed from "Seeing Like a State," Patrick explains how banks' technical architecture and organizational design choices—from core processing systems to customer service tiers—systematically generate the dysfunction that customers experience when things go wrong. – Full transcript available here: – Recommended in this episode:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro | |||
| Building software in Japan, with Jim Weisser | 07 août 2025 | 01:17:12 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Jim Weisser, a serial entrepreneur and founder of SignTime, for an in-depth exploration of Japan's software market and startup ecosystem. They discuss the unique challenges of building software in a culture that prizes stability over rapid iteration, the dominance of systems integrators, and how Japan's economic stagnation shaped its relationship with technology. The conversation covers everything from Excel-driven development processes to the recent transformation of Japan's VC landscape, offering insights for anyone considering doing business in the world's third-largest economy. – – Sponsor: BoxWorks 2025 Discover hands-on AI data extraction techniques, network with industry experts, and hear featured speakers Vinod Khosla, Jared Kaplan, and Aaron Levie at BoxWorks 2025 in San Francisco (Sept 11-12). Use code BW25-ComplexSystems for 50% off at this link: https://bit.ly/452036h – Links: Signtime:: https://www.signtime.com/en/ – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:24) Exploring the Japanese software market (01:25) Challenges in the Japanese startup ecosystem (02:37) Jim Weisser's background and journey (05:14) The evolution of Japan's economy and business practices (10:15) Understanding Japan Inc. and its impact on software (10:28) The role of systems integrators in Japan (20:29) Cultural differences in software development (26:06) Digital transformation and efficiency in Japan (32:44) Labor market dynamics and employment practices (35:50) Startup ecosystem and equity culture in Japan (42:53) Success stories and market potential in Japan (43:42) Corporate relationships in Japanese companies (44:10) Salesforce's success in Japan (45:44) E-commerce boom in Japan (46:33) Rakuten's evolution and strategy (48:27) Amazon's journey in Japan (49:13) Cloud services and security concerns (51:18) Sansan: Business card management (55:14) Venture capital landscape in Japan (01:05:02) Personal reflections on living in Japan (01:16:21) Wrap | |||
| Startup investing in Tokyo, with Coral Capital’s James Riney | 31 juil. 2025 | 01:04:10 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by James Riney, partner at Coral Capital, to explore Japan's transformation from a $700 million startup ecosystem to today's $5-10 billion market. They discuss the cultural and structural factors that initially limited venture activity in Japan. The conversation covers unique aspects of building startups in Japan, from the quirks of being a foreign professional to why Japanese engineers love Twitter but ignore LinkedIn, plus insights into Japan's "time machine advantage" and why American-developed dev tools are going viral in Tokyo. – [Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes! You can access them directly on YouTube: www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.] Sponsor: Safebase – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:57) The early days of Japanese startups (04:08) The rise of Coin Check (05:54) Challenges and opportunities in the Japanese startup ecosystem (16:09) Cultural and structural differences in hiring (21:22) The role of content and communication in Japanese startups (31:29) LinkedIn vs. Facebook in Japanese work culture (32:38) LinkedIn's social capital issues in Japan (33:58) Cultural differences in asking for permission (34:31) Navigating Japanese regulatory clarity (36:49) The evolution of VC investment in Japan (39:54) The rise of SaaS in Japan (45:26) System integrators and software development in Japan (50:39) Challenges in Japanese tech companies (54:36) Opportunities for foreign companies in Japan (55:03) The importance of commitment in the Japanese market (57:08) Dev tools and viral adoption in Japan (59:31) Japan's influence on global tech (01:03:23) Wrap | |||
| How AI reshapes the craft of software engineering, with Yoav Tzfati | 24 juil. 2025 | 00:45:41 | |
Patrick McKenzie is joined by AI researcher Yoav Tzfati to discuss “vibe coding” - using LLMs to delegate software engineering work to AI models. Yoav runs a bootcamp teaching programming novices to build full-stack web applications using AI, without them ever looking at code. Patrick and Yoav discuss the fundamental shift in software engineering, where humans increasingly act as product managers directing AI "junior engineers," and explore the implications for the future of programming careers and the democratization of software development. – Read full transcript here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-ai-reshapes-software-engineering/ [Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes like this one!You can access them directly on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.] Links:
– Timestamps: (00:32) Defining vibe coding (01:35) The evolution of software engineering with LLMs (04:07) Practical applications of vibe coding (09:37) Teaching vibe coding to novices (18:30) Future of AI in software development (21:42) Discussing timelines and model capabilities (22:12) Flappy Bird and the evolution of game development (23:27) The impact of LLMs on software engineering (24:46) Future of coding and human roles (29:47) Monitoring and error handling in software (31:20) The role of LLMs in code review and maintenance (35:12) Wireframing and project management with LLMs (36:40) The future of software engineering careers (43:07) Practical tips for software engineers (44:38) Wrap | |||
| Stacking the odds: Cate Hall on agency and outlier success | 17 juil. 2025 | 00:46:39 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Cate Hall, CEO of Astera Institute and author of a forthcoming book on agency, to explore how individuals can systematically develop higher agency in their lives. They discuss the selection effects that draw agentic people to fields like poker and startups, the importance of being comfortable with ignorance and feedback, and practical strategies like asking "Is there a better way to do this?" ten times daily. Cate shares insights from her journey from Supreme Court lawyer to world champion poker player, including how peer groups, emergencies, and what addicts call "the gift of desperation" can trigger step-changes in personal agency. Full transcript available here: – [Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes like this one.You can access them directly on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.] – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:28) Exploring the concept of agency (00:56) Selection effects in different fields (01:31) The tech industry evolution (02:54) Y Combinator's changing demographics (04:23) Parallels between poker and startups (15:48) The role of networking and relationships (19:12) Embracing feedback and continuous improvement (23:49) Exploring growth mindset (24:35) AI and personal improvement (27:04) Learning with AI: strategies and cautions (27:53) The value of human interaction (30:19) Professional gamblers and their unique insights (35:05) Understanding agency and its development (38:45) Triggers for increased agency (45:23) Wrap | |||
| Think like a trader, with Ricki Heicklen | 10 juil. 2025 | 01:55:18 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Ricki Heicklen to discuss the evolution of her trading education business, Arbor, one year after their first conversation. They dive deep into the pedagogy of trading, exploring how simulated markets teach concepts like adverse selection, team dynamics, and risk management through hands-on experience. Ricki shares war stories from the bootcamp trenches—infinite loop bugs that mirror Knight Capital's disaster, WiFi outages that create unexpected trading opportunities, and that the most successful trading teams often focus on internal team communication even more than trade execution or technical acumen. See the full transcript: – [Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes.You can access them directly on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.] – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:46) Ricki's journey from trading to teaching (01:25) The birth of Arbor and first bootcamps (03:32) Developing a trader's mindset (05:53) Understanding heuristics in trading (08:21) Adverse selection in everyday life (15:40) Insights from teaching trading bootcamps (21:07) Pedagogical approach: learning by doing (32:00) Handling mistakes and learning opportunities (36:17) Unplanned bugs and real-world lessons (39:47) Learning from Knight Capital's bug (40:24) Understanding exchange-side bugs (43:10) Risk limits and strategy separation (44:41) Importance of UI in trading bots (46:53) The Madagascar button (48:20) The big red button in manufacturing (49:45) Simulated trading and information aggregation (50:29) Sibling trading game explained (53:24) Modeling and hidden information (01:01:15) Trading behavior and market updates (01:04:38) Real-world applications and lessons (01:13:58) Surprises and market opportunities (01:16:24) Pedagogical approaches in trading education (01:17:08) Market dynamics and counterparty behavior (01:17:53) Retail vs. institutional order flow (01:19:23) Simplifying trading concepts for beginners (01:21:27) Introducing market characters and their roles (01:31:31) Team dynamics and communication in trading (01:39:13) The importance of redundancy in trading systems (01:47:52) Future of trading education and online classes (01:53:47) Wrap | |||
| Achieving results in the physical world, with Adam Jarvis of “Public Service” | 03 juil. 2025 | 01:09:10 | |
Patrick McKenzie is joined by Adam Jarvis, author of the Public Service substack and a New Zealand civil engineer and public sector veteran. They discuss how political capital constraints, funding misalignment across government levels, and accumulated regulatory "scar tissue" make infrastructure projects extraordinarily difficult. The conversation reveals why replacing a water pipe now costs more in planning than the entire project did a decade ago, and how talent sorting has drained capacity from public institutions. Despite these challenges, Patrick and Adam find reasons for optimism about reforming government capacity. Complex Systems now has video episodes as well. Watch this episode and subscribe at: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction to Complex Systems | |||