Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)
| Titre | Date | Durée | |
|---|---|---|---|
| That time we accidentally created national healthcare infrastructure, with Dave Kasten | 05 Sep 2024 | 01:36:06 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dave Kasten, to discuss their experiences building VaccinateCA, a charitable effort that collected, collated, and distributed vaccine distribution information during the COVID-19 pandemic. (If you Googled for the vaccine, the search results likely came from VaccinateCA’s data.) They cover the challenges of rapidly scaling a volunteer-driven organization, the lessons learned about public health infrastructure, the intricacies of interfacing with government bureaucracy, and reasons to be cautiously optimistic about tech/government collaboration. Expanding on a theme from recent episodes (see: Casey Handmer), Dave and Patrick cover the stark differences between government and tech sector’s approach to problem-solving. They offer insights into the often-misunderstood world of government operations, the individuals who make it function, and the "scar tissue" of regulations that can both protect and hinder progress. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/tech-government-dave-kasten/
Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: The Story of VaccinateCA, Works in Progress https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-story-of-vaccinateca/ https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ Complex Systems episode ft. Kelsey Piper (Spotify): https://open.spotify.com/episode/33rHTZVowaq76tCTaKJfRB – Twitter: @David_Kasten
(00:00) Intro (00:23) Dave Kasten’s unique career path (01:37) The beginning of VaccinateCA (03:09) Early challenges and volunteer efforts (07:24) Volunteer coordination and call center operations (10:55) Navigating policies and procedures (14:33) Navigating policies and prioritization (21:00) Adapting to volunteer feedback (22:50) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check (25:07) Public reception and media involvement (35:40) Government and institutional responses (45:59) Differences between tech and government approaches (47:52) Challenges in pandemic information dissemination (49:10) Accuracy and information systems (53:43) Government and agile development (56:51) Bureaucratic constraints and historical practices (01:08:55) Government workforce and technological challenges (01:22:34) The importance of policy engagement (01:33:42) Wrap
Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. | |||
| The mad science of drilling the earth with Austin Vernon | 29 Aug 2024 | 01:11:23 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Austin Vernon, a petroleum engineer, to discuss the technology and economics of fracking. Austin explains the evolution of drilling technology, the financial ecosystem supporting the oil industry – including the unique "doctor and lawyer money" funding model – and the complex interplay of mineral rights laws and state/local politics in the United States. Patrick and Austin also discuss the cross-pollination of technologies between fracking and emerging fields like geothermal energy extraction.
Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/fracking-austin-vernon/
Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: – Twitter: @Vernon3Austin – (00:00) Intro (01:38) Fracking technology and horizontal drilling (05:12) The history and development of fracking techniques (12:26) Communication methods in drilling operations, including mud pulse technology (15:50) The economics of drilling operations (17:28) Scale and cost comparisons between different types of drilling projects (19:30) Safety considerations in onshore vs offshore drilling (20:50) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check (24:04) Discussion of small-scale "mom and pop" oil operations (27:13) The impact of oil drilling on local economies (31:45) The lifecycle of fracked wells and their long-term production (36:15) Financing in the oil and gas industry (39:19) Unique aspects of US mineral rights laws and leasing practices (42:38) The process of setting up and funding new drilling operations (52:55) Environmental concerns and groundwater protection measures in fracking (56:40) The physical footprint of drilling operations (59:12) Learning curves in fracking and geothermal energy extraction (59:56) Diamond drill bits are not quite forever (01:03:59) Where fracking goes from here – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. | |||
| Balancing control and chaos: cybernetics, fraud, and modern organizations with Dan Davies | 22 Aug 2024 | 01:23:56 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dan Davies, author of Lying for Money, and The Unaccountability Machine. They discuss how cybernetics–the study of control and communication in complex systems–applies to modern organizations and decision-making. Dan and Patrick discuss how organizations change as they grow, financial fraud and its relevance to systems design, and the process of writing nonfiction books. The conversation touches on pathologies like what happens when organizations insulate decisionmakers from communications channels to on-the-ground reality. – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast –
Twitter: – (00:00) Intro (00:26) The Unaccountability Machine (01:38) History and fundamentals of cybernetics (08:10) Operations research and its evolution (12:08) Theory of the Firm, revisited (15:21) Monopolizing math for fun and profit (18:38) Sponsor: Check (19:50) Role of black boxes in systems (25:11) AI and the future of system management (30:02) Accountability sinks and organizational issues (38:44) Optimism about future of organizational design (43:45) Empowering employees: the CEO’s open door policy (46:31) Lying for Money (51:57) Psychology of fraudsters (01:02:52) Fraudogenic environments (01:09:49) Journey of becoming a published author (01:18:13) Effective ways to sell books (01:22:33) Wrap – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. | |||
| Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer | 15 Aug 2024 | 01:25:18 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Casey Handmer, rocket scientist turned CEO of Terraform Industries. Casey discusses the rapid advancements in solar power, the bureaucratic challenges of NASA, the incomprehensible success of SpaceX, and the evolving energy landscape. Casey touches on his experiences at JPL revealing how the organization’s fear of waste and rigid processes often stifle innovation and efficiency. The conversation then shifts to Terraform Industries' mission to create synthetic natural gas from sunlight and air, potentially revolutionizing the energy sector. The conversation dives into the complexities of large-scale systems, from space exploration to renewable energy, offering insights into how innovation and smart policy can shape a more sustainable and prosperous future. – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– Twitter: - (00:00) Intro (00:25) Casey’s startup: Terraform Industries (00:48) The rise of solar power (02:19) Solar power vs. traditional energy sources (05:18) Economic and industrial impacts of solar (09:02) Challenges in aviation and energy (19:39) The role of policy in clean energy (22:30) Sponsor: Check (23:41) Casey’s experience at NASA and JPL (34:17) SpaceX, Elon Musk and the US private space actors (44:05) Solving problems and workplace politics (45:10) Spreadsheets create their own reality, film at eleven (48:35) Organizational challenges at NASA (49:40) Challenges of innovation in bureaucracies (51:07) The role of NASA and government in innovation (55:25) The housing theory of everything (58:36) Empowering employees for success (01:02:41) Terraform Industries’ vision (01:07:28) The future of energy and carbon neutrality (01:10:52) The importance of hydrocarbons in aviation (01:15:47) Challenges with hydrogen as a fuel (01:18:21) Development of synthetic fertilizers (01:21:54) Environmental considerations on industrial progress (01:22:55) Wrap | |||
| Bet on it: Zvi Mowshowitz on professional gambling, trading, and AI futures | 08 Aug 2024 | 01:26:22 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Zvi Mowshowitz (TheZvi) to discuss his wide-ranging career as a professional Magic: The Gathering player, sports gambler, equities trader, public intellectual on the covid-19 epidemic, and AI-focused journalist. They go into depth on how trading happens in less formal markets with lessons that resonate in more formal markets. They also explore the fallacies of rational decision-making in large organizations, the significance of obsession and practice in achieving excellence, and exchange predictions on AI. – – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – – – (00:00) Intro (00:16) Meet Zvi Mowshowitz (04:11) Trading and Magic: The Gathering (07:24) Professional sports gambling (11:58) Navigating the sportsbook market (22:33) Sponsor: Check (23:48) Financial markets vs. sports betting (34:02) Covid-19 early predictions (43:21) Covid-19 policy failures and blame (49:52) Vaccine rollout chaos (01:01:11) The importance of scaling effective strategies (01:14:46) AI predictions (01:23:58) Wrap – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: Turpentine.co | |||
| Betting on the future via prediction markets, with Stephen Grugett of Manifold | 01 Aug 2024 | 00:51:57 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philosophical value of prediction markets. – – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– @ManifoldMarkets – (00:00) Intro (00:26) Understanding prediction markets (02:15) Manifold's calibration and performance (06:48) The role of bots in prediction markets (10:52) User-created markets and community practices (15:49) Forecasting, and superforecasters (18:26) Crafting good markets on Manifold (23:07) Sponsor: Check (24:20) Evolution of Manifold's loan system (26:13) Market participation and capital efficiency (27:57) The LK-99 superconductor markets on Manifold (28:57) Social aspects of market participation (32:31) Building Manifold and user growth trajectory (34:57) Innovative use cases for prediction markets (38:52) Prediction market vs. traditional market (42:22) Play money markets with real cash prizes (46:14) Historical and regulatory context of prediction markets (49:32) The importance of market optics (50:44) Wrap – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. | |||
| Reporting on tech with Kelsey Piper | 25 Jul 2024 | 01:06:40 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Kelsey Piper, a journalist for Vox’s Future Perfect. Kelsey recently reported on equity irregularities at OpenAI in May of 2024, leading to an improvement of their policies in this area. We discuss the social function of equity in the technology industry, why the tech industry and reporters have had a frosty relationship the last several years, and more.
– Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– Twitter: – Timestamps: (00:28) Kelsey Piper's journey into tech journalism (01:34) Early reporting (03:16) How Kelsey covers OpenAI (05:27) Understanding equity in the tech industry (11:29) Tender offers and employee equity (20:00) Dangerous Professional: employee edition (28:46) The frosty relationship between tech and media (35:44) Editorial policies and tech reporting (37:28) Media relations in the modern tech industry (38:35) Historical media practices and PR strategies (40:48) Challenges in modern journalism (44:48) VaccinateCA (56:12) Reflections on Effective Altruism and ethics (01:03:52) The role of Twitter in modern coordination (01:05:40) Final thoughts – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. | |||
| Writing the first draft of financial history with Byrne Hobart | 18 Jul 2024 | 00:50:45 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne’s vantage point as writer of The Diff, a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from scratch. – Full transcript here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/writing-history-byrne-hobart/ – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
Referenced:
– @byrnehobart (00:00) Intro (00:25) The 30-year mortgage is an intrinsically toxic product (04:46) Young households are the socially optimal holders of equities risk (10:19) The structure of private equity returns (14:18) Sponsor: Check (15:32) Meta-analysis of the finance newsletter space (19:54) Byrne’s aspirations for The Diff (25:01) The origins of names (27:19) The epistemics of a hedge fund (34:26) Venture capital vs hedge funds (38:13) Understanding scrapers (41:20) How to learn about an industry from scratch (45:37) The business of online travel agencies (49:21) Wrap – | |||
| How the Smart Money teaches trading with Ricki Heicklen | 11 Jul 2024 | 01:40:15 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Ricki Heicklen discuss Ricki’s innovative approaches to teaching trading. Trading is traditionally taught only by practitioners, to practitioners. The curricula that trading firms use are not published externally, to avoid empowering competitors. Ricki explains how she teaches trade mechanics, how markets and traders react to new information, and the security mindset necessary for trading, including protecting sensitive information and avoiding signaling strategies inadvertently. – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast
Links: https://bayesshammai.substack.com/ https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ – Twitter: – – | |||
| Decisions Nobody Made, policy edition, with Dave Guarino | 19 Sep 2024 | 01:22:26 | |
In this episode of Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (aka @Patio11) is joined by Dave Guarino, a software engineer and policy wonk. They explore the complexities and challenges of public programs, focusing on SNAP aka CalFresh in California, where Dave was the founding engineer and then director. They discuss how society’s complex preferences become policy, driving obviously bad UXes (like 200+ questions for an application) for structural reasons. Patrick and Dave debate structural issues within government agencies that lead to these inefficiencies, the lack of user-centric design, misaligned incentives, a “cavernous gap” in feedback loops, and surprisingly simple ways anyone can influence public policy and improve government systems. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/government-software-dave-guarino/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: Dave Guarino's newsletter: https://daveguarino.substack.com/
Twitter: @allafarce
(00:00) Intro (01:03) Complexity of naming government programs (03:45) How policy decisions are made (07:19) Why SNAP applications are so complex (14:17) Why no one stops overly complex applications (18:44) Political economy of different benefit programs (24:56) Sponsor: Check | WorkOS (26:13) Limited visibility into user experience (29:24) Lack of application completion rate tracking (35:27) Starting where you are (43:44) Challenges of modernizing legacy systems (48:35) Broken feedback loops in government (53:01) Tech's understanding of service design (57:07) Issues with improper payments methodology (1:04:45) Effective ways to influence policy (1:09:43) Increasing agency in government agencies (1:14:56) Getting niche policy ideas into circulation (1:18:04) Importance of frontline knowledge and user feedback (1:21:33) Improving government services (1:22:06) Wrap
Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/ | |||
| True Crime, banking edition | 12 Sep 2024 | 00:53:12 | |
In this episode of Complex System, the tables are turned and media entrepreneur/investor Erik Torenberg interviews Patrick McKenzie (patio11) about the intricacies of the financial system, focusing on banking, money laundering, and regulatory compliance. They discuss several of Patrick’s essays from Bits About Money. Patrick discusses the three stages of money laundering - placement, layering, and integration - and how the financial system has been deputized to act as law enforcement. The conversation touches on the unintended consequences of strict regulations, including their impact on economic growth and financial inclusion. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/true-crime-banking-edition – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: Seeing Like a Bank https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/seeing-like-a-bank/
Twitter: @eriktorenberg
(00:00) Intro (00:33) Seeing like big tech (06:31) AI, centralization, and information processing (09:23) Crypto vs AI: Thiel's perspective (10:30) Seeing like a bank: ledgers and customer service (19:57) Future of banking customer service (22:27) Societal goals vs banking efficiency (28:58) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check (31:15) Understanding KYC and AML (35:16) Money laundering explained (42:28) Financial system as law enforcement (51:41) Ideal changes in the financial system (52:34) Wrap
Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. | |||
| Bits, Bytes, and Burgers with Byrne Hobart | 26 Sep 2024 | 01:26:13 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Byrne Hobart, writer of The Diff, for a follow up conversation about “whales” – and so much more – across the gaming, aviation, software, hospitality and fast food industries. Patrick and Byrne also discuss their writing process, knowledge management, and how they use AI tools. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/byrne-hobart-whales-miscellany – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– Twitter: @byrnehobart
(00:00) Intro (00:45) Economics of video game currencies (02:56) Pricing strategies in mobile gaming (05:08) Monetization skew towards high-end players (08:08) VIP systems and casino host analogy (11:08) Whale behavior in casual games (15:03) Hyper-consuming outliers in other industries (19:09) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check (21:25) Hobbies and opportunity costs (23:01) Custom software for tech billionaires (26:30) Evolution of website development (29:55) Restaurant websites and delivery apps (40:17) McDonald's take rates (44:59) Restaurant groups (53:34) Tech company cafeterias and employee benefits (57:57) Google's business model and economic feedback loops (1:00:57) Early Google investment anecdote (1:02:16) Writing as a memory aid (1:04:46) Using ChatGPT for memory assistance (1:10:30) LLMs as writing and coding aids (1:13:34) Children's interaction with ChatGPT (1:18:11) Arguing with LLMs and using them for research (1:03:00) Wrap – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/ | |||
| The hundred-year-old telegram worth $5 million, with Jim McKenzie | 03 Oct 2024 | 01:52:36 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by his father, Jim McKenzie, for an intimate and in depth exploration of commercial real estate development. They unravel the complex web of relationships, regulations, and often absurd situations that shape our built environment. From the intricacies of curb cuts and driveway permits to the art of navigating local politics and lobbyists, the conversation offers a rare glimpse into the hidden mechanisms of urban development. Jim shares the highlights from his career like transforming day-old bread stores into bank branches, dealing with Chicago's infamous aldermen, and spelunking in archives to find century-old telegrams with enforceable contractual implications. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/the-hundred-year-old-telegram-worth-5-million-with-jim-mckenzie-2/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/why-is-that-bank-branch-there/
(00:00) Intro (00:27) Understanding real estate development with Jim (03:13) The great rail lease story (20:02) How real estate ownership is conducted (25:58) Real estate acquisition strategies (28:39) Sponsor: Check (29:41) Banks and location (34:25) Day-old bread: an opportunity (38:45) The Walgreens development dilemma (40:22) Strategic offers and unusual numbers (42:25) The power of personal relationships (46:37) Navigating real estate offers and execution quality (52:51) The LaSalle Bank acquisition and its impact (54:39) The 2008 quadruple whammy (58:39) The West Town shopping center opportunity (01:01:44) The complexities of real estate deals (01:14:24) The 2008 financial crisis and its ripple effects (01:15:36) The energy industry resurgence post-Ukraine incursion (01:16:07) Navigating utility easements and real estate (01:21:43) The complexities of curb cuts and driveway permits (01:23:46) Chicago's political landscape and real estate development (01:32:37) Lobbying and political influence in development (01:51:58) Wrap
Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/ | |||
| Telling the tech story | 10 Oct 2024 | 00:58:34 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Erik Torenberg, investor and the media entrepreneur behind Turpentine, explore the evolving relationship between tech journalism and the industry it covers. They discuss how fictional portrayals of industries greatly inform how jobseekers understand those industries, and how the industries understand themselves. They cover the vacuum in quality tech reporting, the emergence of independent media companies, and industry heavyweights with massive followings. Patrick also brings up the phenomenon of Twitter/Slack crossovers, where coordinated social media action is used to influence internal company policies and public narratives. They examine how this dynamic, combined with economic pressures and ideological motivations, has led to increased groupthink in tech journalism. Expanding on themes covered in Kelsey Piper’s episode of Complex Systems, this conversation makes more legible the important ways media affects tech, even though tech is arguably a more sophisticated industry – and why there is a need to move beyond simplistic narratives of "holding power accountable" to provide nuanced, informative coverage that helps people understand tech’s impact on society. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/tech-media-erik-torenberg
Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: Bits About Money, “Fiction and Finance” https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/fiction-about-finance/ Byrne Hobart’s essay on The Social Network https://byrnehobart.medium.com/the-social-network-was-the-most-important-movie-of-all-time-9f91f66018d7 – Twitter: – (00:00) Intro (00:27) Fiction and Finance: The power of narrative (01:41) The Social Network's impact on career choices (03:34) Cultural perceptions and entrepreneurship (06:04) Media influence and tech industry perception (11:01) The role of tech journalism (14:15) Social media's impact on journalism (19:39) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check (21:54) The intersection of media and tech (39:22) Public intellectualism in tech (57:40) Wrap – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/ | |||
| How real estate investing works with Moses Kagan | 17 Oct 2024 | 01:28:30 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Moses Kagan, co-founder of Adaptive Realty, ReSeed, and Reconvene. Their deep dive into real estate investing and property management covers the different classes of apartment buildings, the challenges of property management, and the complexities of financing structures in the industry. They examine how the internet has transformed capital raising, the significance of cap rates, the effects of supply and demand on property values, and a comparison of the real estate markets in different major cities. The episode is in many ways a follow up to Patrick’s conversation with Jim McKenzie and offers a window into the opaque world of real estate investment. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/real-estate-moses-kagan/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: Moses Kagan's blog: https://kagansblog.com/ Seth Godin’s book Permission Marketing: https://www.amazon.com/Permission-Marketing-Strangers-Friends-Customers/dp/0684856360 Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/
(00:00) Intro (00:25) Understanding the stigma of the maligned landlord (04:07) Landlord spectrum: from mom-and-pops to institutional players (05:29) Inside Adaptive Realty (06:13) Owner vs. property manager (07:34) Challenges and complexities of property management (15:00) Capital stacks and loans (18:17) Sponsor: Check (26:25) The role of banks and underwriting in real estate (40:28) Federal subsidies and small scale landlords (44:26) Understanding commercial real estate classes (46:20) Challenges of Class C assets (47:13) Explaining cap rates (52:20) Raising equity for real estate deals (54:16) The syndication process (56:30) The role of brokers and execution risk (01:00:52) Legal structures and documentation (01:10:52) The power of networking and reputation (01:23:14) The impact of supply and demand on rents (01:28:03) Wrap | |||
| Picking Uncle Sam's pocket, with Jetson Leder-Luis | 24 Oct 2024 | 01:18:10 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by economist and fraud researcher Professor Jetson Luis-Leder to examine the systemic issues underlying government program fraud. Jetson and Patrick discuss healthcare fraud cases, including hospice eligibility manipulation and ambulance transport schemes, and other fraud practices against unemployment and the PPP program. The discussion reveals how institutional constraints, technological limitations, and policy design choices create opportunities for both beneficial and harmful rule violations. They also analyze the ROI of fraud prevention measures, the effectiveness of whistleblower incentives, and how bureaucratic systems can be redesigned to prevent abuse. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/defrauding-government-jetson-leder-luis – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– Twitter: @jetson_econ – (00:00) Intro (02:04) Overview of Medicare/Medicaid (02:41) Estimated $50-100B fraud losses (03:31) Taxonomy of healthcare fraud (08:04) Hospice fraud; potentially saved money (16:33) A $10 billion asterisk: ambulances for dialysis patients (21:30) Sponsors: Work OS | Check (24:45) Complexities of fraud detection and prevention (39:02) Pandemic fraud (41:34) Findings on PPP loans fraud (48:19) Supply chain of fraud (52:06) Policy and enforcement challenges (01:08:32) Whistleblower programs (01:14:54) Final thoughts – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/ | |||
| From molecule to medicine, with Ross Rheingans-Yoo | 31 Oct 2024 | 01:27:14 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ross Rheingans-Yoo to discuss drug development and clinical trials. Ross breaks down how drugs progress from academic research through FDA approval, the challenging economics, and the many systemic inefficiencies in the current approval process. Patrick and Ross discuss historical cases like the thalidomide crisis that shaped FDA policy, the evolution of accelerated approvals during the AIDS epidemic, and lessons from COVID-19 trials. Ross shares his current work rescuing abandoned promising drugs from bankruptcy. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/drug-development-ross-rheingans-yoo/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– Twitter: – (02:28) Ross’ career transition to drug development (03:12) The drug development process (06:22) Clinical trials and FDA approval (11:48) Challenges in clinical trials (14:50) Case study: COVID-19 trials (18:00) Sponsors: Manifold Markets | Check (19:55) Pharmaceutical economics (38:13) Rare diseases and regulatory strategies (45:18) Advanced market commitments explained (45:54) Operation warp speed and its impact (47:45) How to get accelerated approvals (52:49) The thalidomide tragedy and its legacy (01:03:17) Modern regulatory challenges and patient advocacy (01:07:14) Reviving abandoned drugs (01:12:06) Innovative approaches to drug trials (01:24:26) The future of pharmaceutical development (01:26:34) Wrap – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/ | |||
| How money moves, with Erik Torenberg | 07 Nov 2024 | 00:37:21 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Erik Torenberg, the founder of Turpentine, to discuss the fundamentals of money movement and banking systems. Patrick breaks down how banks facilitate transfers through correspondent accounts and clearinghouses, explaining the evolution from physical check movement to digitization. They cover the gold standard's history, and then dig into stablecoins and their implications for the future of finance. – Full transcript available here: https://complexsystemspodcast.com/money-movement-erik-torenberg – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– Twitter: @eriktorenberg - (00:49) What is money? (02:39) How money moves (06:00) Banking and correspondent accounts (07:59) Clearing houses and payment systems (12:09) The gold standard and fractional reserve banking (18:15) Introduction to stablecoins (19:38) Sponsor: Check (21:31) Stablecoin models and issues (27:30) Crypto skepticism and innovations (30:53) Regulatory arbitrage and future of money (36:36) Wrap | |||
| Boom, busts, and long term progress with Byrne Hobart | 14 Nov 2024 | 01:42:59 | |
By popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne’s book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern streaming to today’s AI investment surge, they examine how even when investment manias end badly, they frequently pull forward crucial technological development that benefits society long-term. Byrne and Patrick weave through historical cases like Bell Labs to present day examples in crypto and energy infrastructure, revealing hidden cycles where speculative excess can drive genuine innovation.
Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/boom-busts-and-long-term-progress-with-byrne-hobart-2/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– Twitter: - | |||
| AI, poker, and mind games, with Max Chiswick | 21 Nov 2024 | 00:55:00 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Max Chiswick, a former professional poker player turned AI educator, to explore how poker intersects with decision making. They discuss how the online poker boom created unprecedented opportunities to study decision-making at scale and how computational advances have transformed both the game's theory and practice. They dig into how poker serves as a laboratory for studying decision-making under uncertainty, pattern recognition, and opponent modeling, while also examining the sometimes problematic incentives that emerge in both online gambling and AI development.
Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-poker-max-chiswick/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– Twitter: - (00:26) Max's background and journey into poker (03:45) The credit card rewards game tangent (06:12) Why poker matters: reasoning and decision-making (07:49) The problem areas in the poker AI space (09:38) Poker as an assistive technology for reasoning (10:59) Online poker history (16:14) Understanding multitabling (21:14) Casino economics and gambling regulation (22:55) Sponsor: Check (26:32) PokerStars VIP program and professional incentives (29:47) Playing a million hands in a month (37:26) AI poker history and counterfactual regret minimization (43:35) Poker complexity (45:01) The impact of solvers on modern poker (45:52) Understanding poker game theory and decision trees (49:26) Recent developments in poker AI education (50:27) Teaching programmers to build poker bots (53:05) Wrap
Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network, the network behind Econ 102 with Noah Smith, The Riff with Byrne Hobart, and Turpentine VC. Turpentine also has a social network for top tech founders: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/ | |||
| Fraud levels are a policy choice | 05 Dec 2024 | 00:49:21 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) offers a reading of his viral essay, "The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero" with extensive live commentary. Patrick examines payment systems, benefits programs, and pandemic-era policies, to uncover how businesses and governments often intentionally accept some level of fraud as a cost of doing business. Reducing fraud to zero would require such restrictive verification that it would severely hamper legitimate commerce and social programs. Using examples from credit card processing to PPP loans, Patrick illustrates how different industries calibrate their tolerance for fraud based on their margins, mission, and societal role.
Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/fraud-choice-patrick-mckenzie – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– Twitter: - | |||
| The future of pandemic preparedness, with Joshua Morrison | 19 Dec 2024 | 01:12:30 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Joshua Morrison, the CEO of advocacy non-profit 1Day Sooner. They discuss what worked and what didn't in Operation Warp Speed's unprecedented push to develop COVID-19 vaccines. The conversation then turns to the future of pandemic preparedness, particularly the promising (and underappreciated) clean air technology. Throughout, Joshua and Patrick illuminate how institutional design choices, political incentives, and technical constraints shape our ability to respond to public health challenges. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/warp-speed-joshua-morrison/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
Twitter: – (00:00) Intro | |||
| How we tax property, with Lars Doucet | 12 Dec 2024 | 01:09:36 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Lars Doucet, the author of Land is a Big Deal, discuss how cities determine your property's value and collect taxes. They explore how assessment offices juggle political pressures, statistical models, and technological tools while trying to maintain equity across millions of properties. They also cover why assessment offices are separate from tax collectors, how property value protests actually work, and why your neighbor's house might be assessed differently than yours. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/property-assessment-lars-doucet/ – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links: Lars’ book: https://www.landisabigdeal.com/ Lars’ blog: https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ – @larsiusprime @patio11
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| Seeing like an outsider, with Yatharth | 02 Jan 2025 | 01:19:31 | |
In this episode, Yatharth (@askyatharth), a graduate student and software engineer, turns the tables to interview Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) about cultural codes, writing, and AI. Patrick shares how his early experiences fighting credit report errors and navigating cross-cultural business environments led to his distinctive approach to understanding and writing about institutional systems. The conversation spans from Patrick's methodical exploration of banking infrastructure to his predictions about LLMs, weaving in personal stories about dating, parenthood, and bridging American and Japanese cultures along the way. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/outside-view-yatharth/ Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– Twitter: – (00:00) Intro
Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse. | |||
| Debanking explained | 16 Jan 2025 | 01:00:43 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) unpacks his 24k word essay Debanking (and Debunking?) originally published on Bits about Money. He discusses the contours of recent debanking claims made by the crypto community, notably Marc Andreessen, Nic Carter, and explains how banking actually works as infrastructure rather than conspiracy. The conversation moves from Operation Chokepoint's documented history to current claims about coordinated action against certain industries, while highlighting how banking access challenges disproportionately affect those who are "relatively less resourced, relatively less educated." – Full transcript available here: – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– Twitter: – – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. | |||
| Retrospective on 2024, with Sammy Cottrell | 09 Jan 2025 | 01:03:50 | |
In this special episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) and his EA/producer Sammy Cottrell examine the production function behind Complex Systems, from studio logistics to transcript annotation and guest selection. They reflect on their most memorable episodes while discussing the podcast's core mission of making complex systems more legible and ensuring valuable content remains freely available on the internet. The conversation explores the subjective best episodes from 2024, plans for the year ahead, and how LLMs might transform both the systems they study and how we write about them. Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/2024-year-in-review-sammy-cottrell/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast –
– Timestamps: Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. | |||
| The banking crisis, two years later | 23 Jan 2025 | 01:09:48 | |
Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) revisits his March 2023 essay that explained the dynamics of bank runs and system stress during the banking crisis one month prior. With data from a newly released Federal Reserve paper, he analyzes the true scope of the banking stress - including revelations that 22 banks experienced severe deposit outflows, far more than publicly known at the time. While officials blamed social media for bank runs, data shows institutional players, not retail depositors, drove the events. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/banking-crisis-two-years-later/ – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– Twitter: – Timestamps: | |||
| Power plays: grid economics and engineering, with Travis Dauwalter | 06 Feb 2025 | 01:13:46 | |
Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Travis Dauwalter, energy enthusiast (and PhD), to explain the systems we often take for granted behind the US electrical grid. The conversation covers how the grid maintains perfect supply-demand balance in real-time, the challenges of integrating renewable energy sources, and why America actually has three separate interconnected grids. Patrick and Travis weave through the economics of power generation, transmission line physics, and how data centers are reshaping energy markets. (Also, in a bit of a surprise, Patrick defends the honor of Bitcoin miners.) – Full transcript available here: complexsystemspodcast.com/electricity-grids-travis-dauwalter/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast Links:
– Twitter: @TravisDauwalter @patio11 Travis’ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/travisdauwalter/ – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro | |||
| The landmines buried in the fine print of Chicago’s new casino deal | 30 Jan 2025 | 00:43:23 | |
In today’s episode Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) examines a Chicago casino investment, first of its kind within the city limits. Patrick reads from his Bits About Money essay (published January 2025) with additional commentary based on recent developments. The discussion reveals how municipal politics, grievances about national and local economic history, and creative financing intersect for ‘a very Chicago gamble.’ – Full transcript available here: – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Links:
– Twitter: – Timestamps: | |||
| You can’t retract the facts | 20 Feb 2025 | 00:42:03 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) responds to a recent request by a crypto unicorn founder / bank CEO to retract his essay Debanking (and debunking?). Come for the note about editorial standards and independence, stay for the diss track. Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/editorial-standards-and-independence/ – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Recommended in this episode:
– Twitter: @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:04) Musical interlude (04:56) Return to commentary (06:35) You can’t please everyone (08:06) The bar for retraction is high (10:07) Our review of the retraction request (10:37) “A few areas were incorrect or misleading” (16:12) “Lots of omission of key facts” (18:57) “Missing the point about what we mean by debunking” (20:40) Sponsors: Safebase | Check (25:00) Our response to McCauley’s testimony (34:20) Some context regarding custodial banks (40:50) Returning to our regularly scheduled programming | |||
| Stablecoins and shenanigans, with Zeke Faux | 13 Feb 2025 | 01:27:03 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Zeke Faux, investigative reporter at Bloomberg and author of Number Go Up, to discuss stablecoins and crypto fraud. They dive into Tether's controversial history, the senate’s emerging GENIUS act, and how crypto enables various types of financial crime. The conversation explores how Tether went from a “quilted collection of red flags” to becoming crypto's dominant stablecoin, its noteworthy relationship with Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX, and its current political maneuvering. They also discuss the societal value of financial regulation versus laissez-faire approaches to consumer protection. Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/zeke-faux-stablecoins-tether/ – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Recommended in this episode:
– Timestamps: | |||
| AI, data centers, and power economics, with Azeem Azhar | 27 Feb 2025 | 01:13:53 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Azeem Azhar, writer of the Exponential View newsletter, to discuss the massive data center buildout powering AI and its implications for our energy infrastructure. The conversation covers the physical limitations of modern datacenters, the challenges of electricity generation, the societal ripples from historical largescale infrastructure investments like railways and telecommunications, and the future of energy including solar, nuclear and geothermal power. Through their discussion, Patrick and Azeem explain why our mental models for both computing and energy systems need to be updated. – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Recommended in this episode:
– Twitter: @azeem @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:27) The power economics of data centers (01:12) Historical infrastructure rollouts (04:58) The telecoms bubble (06:22) Unprecedented enterprise spend on AI capabilities (11:12) Let's have your LLM talk to my LLM (16:44) Is there a saturation point? (19:25) Sponsors: Safebase | Check (21:55) What’s in a data center? (24:52) The challenges of data centers (29:40) Geographical considerations for data centers (36:53) Energy consumption and future needs (40:48) Challenges in building transmission lines (41:35) The solar power learning curve (43:51) Small modular nuclear reactors (51:26) Geothermal energy and fracking (01:01:34) The future of AI and energy systems (01:12:57) Wrap | |||
| A tale of two Americas in one $50K cash withdrawal | 06 Mar 2025 | 00:41:13 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) explains the standard procedure for large withdrawals in bank branches, with particular focus on the viral story published in The Cut about a woman who withdrew $50,000 cash from a bank and handed it to scammers. Certain minor details in the article set off a year-long investigation where he identified the exact physical location of the bank branch in question, researched the context for the transaction using public records, and obtained new details through FOIA requests. His investigation reveals an underlying narrative that accounts for what actually happened, and provides a worked example for fact-checking in journalism. Full transcript available here: – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast
– Timestamps: (00:55) Suppose you ask a bank to withdraw $50,000 in cash (07:55) Style magazines sometimes publish hard-hitting journalism (12:36) Reaching out to Vox Media (17:09) Sources of doubt (22:30) The physical reality of bank branches (25:53) In which we became acquainted with brisk walks across Brooklyn (34:42) New York’s Finest foil FOIL for a time | |||
| Tax the dirt, with Lars Doucet & Greg Miller | 13 Mar 2025 | 01:17:07 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Lars Doucet and Greg Miller, co-founders who have just launched the Center for Land Economics, to discuss improving property taxation in the US. They explore how shifting taxes from buildings to land could transform development patterns, why California's property tax caps coincide with its housing crisis, and how the fundamental trade-off between assessment accuracy and consistency creates winners and losers. The conversation also covers the posting-to-policy pipeline, their work developing open-source tools to improve assessment equity, and techniques citizens can use to influence their local assessment office. Full transcript available here: – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast Recommended in this episode:
– Twitter: TIMESTAMPS: (00:45) Center for land economics (04:01) Property tax basics (05:31) Challenges in property valuation (10:22) Impact of Proposition 13 in California (12:28) Anti-market property tax policies (14:43) Housing crisis and land value (17:17) Housing crisis and land value (Part 2) (27:49) Urban development incentives (29:17) Tokyo's urban planning success (39:23) The abundance movement in housing (40:07) Innovative housing policies (41:24) Government bureaucracy and policy making (49:56) Mass appraisals and property tax fairness (01:00:02) Technological advances in property assessment (01:06:16) Empowering local governments and citizens (01:16:02) Wrap | |||
| The past, present, and future of AI, with Stripe | 03 Apr 2025 | 01:33:48 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Emily Sands, Head of Information at Stripe, to discuss how they leverage AI to process over $1.4 trillion annually, while navigating the complex web of merchants, banks, and payment rails that facilitate online commerce. Patrick and Emily cover how Stripe’s layered stack of AI combats sophisticated card testing attacks, recovers billions in once-lost revenue through intelligent retry strategies, and enables new businesses to compete with established players through powerful network effects. They also talk about the meteoric rise of AI companies, and how agent-assisted commerce is beginning to transform online shopping through controlled financial rails. – Full transcript available here: – Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex – Recommended in this episode:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:21) Stripe's role in financial infrastructure (02:20) AI and ML at Stripe (07:36) Understanding payment processing (15:06) The evolution of fraud detection (19:22) Advanced fraud detection techniques (22:55) Sponsor: Vanta (24:14) Advanced fraud detection techniques (part 2) (34:53) Card testing and fraud prevention (45:29) Adaptive acceptance and future of payments (46:35) Optimizing payment systems with AI (47:13) Understanding ISO messages and credit card protocols (48:37) The importance of semantically neutral changes (51:22) Stripe's enhanced issuer network (56:00) Handling chargebacks and friendly fraud (01:04:55) Personalizing the checkout experience (01:16:44) The meteoric rise of AI startups (01:26:05) Agent-assisted commerce (01:32:58) Wrap | |||
| No, poor people aren’t funding your credit card rewards | 27 Mar 2025 | 01:06:47 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) challenges a recent Atlantic article claiming that low-income cardholders subsidize credit card rewards through high interest payments. Drawing from his Bits About Money essay Anatomy of a credit card rewards program, Patrick explains that rewards are primarily funded by interchange fees paid by merchants, not by interest charges. To the extent those interchange is passed along to customers, it falls mostly on rich customers, because rich customers spend more. They spend more in interchange than they earn in rewards. Issuing banks and researchers who have looked at the data mostly agree here. Patrick also breaks down the credit card rewards game, showing how banks strategically design card offerings for different market segments and explains the portfolio mathematics that disprove the cross-subsidization narrative. – Full transcript available here: – Sponsor: Vanta
– (00:31) A recent Atlantic article's false thesis (09:35) Rebating interchange to earn share of wallet (14:48) Sponsor: Vanta (16:56) Why isn’t every card a rewards card? (27:56) The complexity spectrum of rewards products (29:55) A fun rabbit hole about credit card acceptance (33:53) Back to more complicated cases (45:45) Further refinements in cat and mouse games (51:24) Giving the customer more choices more frequently (58:10) More directions to go in (01:01:54) Patrick’s counterproposal | |||
| Points, profits, and packed planes, with Gary Leff | 20 Mar 2025 | 01:31:27 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Gary Leff, the author of "View from the Wing", to discuss the economic systems behind airlines and loyalty programs. They discuss how airlines manage to stay profitable despite razor-thin margins, the economics of frequent flyer programs, and why these programs often generate more value than the airlines themselves. The conversation explores why many irrational airline policies reflect deeper economic realities and competitive constraints that shape flying today. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/gary-leff-frequent-flier-programs/ – Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex – Recommended in this episode:
– Twitter: @patio11 @garyleff Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:10) History of airline loyalty programs (04:36) The economics of airline loyalty programs (08:01) Parallels and differences with hotel loyalty programs (14:01) Tax implications and legal considerations (19:50) Sponsor: Vanta (21:08) Tax implications and legal considerations (part 2) (34:02) Credit card reward programs (46:56) The David Dao incident and its impact on airline policies (47:29) Airline compensation strategies and Delta’s unique approach (49:08) The economics of airline miles and accounting practices (53:15) Airline debt and the role of frequent flyer programs (55:21) The impact of airline policies on customer loyalty (01:08:11) The value of partner miles and airline alliances (01:13:11) Creative ways to earn miles and exploit promotions (01:20:05) The infamous coin promotion and other mileage hacks (01:30:39) Wrap | |||
| Taking stablecoins seriously, with Haseeb Qureshi | 10 Apr 2025 | 01:08:05 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at Dragonfly, a crypto-focused VC fund. They discuss the evolution of stablecoins, three key use cases, and their impact on international finance. Haseeb explains how stablecoins have grown beyond their initial association with crypto trading and illicit activities to serve legitimate economic functions globally, in ways that many Americans might not fully appreciate. Patrick and Haseeb debate the regulatory landscape, the strategic ambiguity of crypto's positioning, and whether stablecoins represent a parallel financial system that might eventually converge with traditional banking. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/taking-stablecoins-seriously-with-haseeb-qureshi/ – Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Recommended in this episode:
– Timestamps: (00:55) Crypto industry insights and tether discussion (02:52) Stablecoins and their economic models (05:04) Decentralized stablecoins and their mechanisms (07:41) VC perspective on stablecoin investments (13:18) Regulatory challenges and lobbying in crypto (20:36) Emerging use cases for stablecoins (24:16) Sponsor: Safebase (32:35) The initial response to stablecoins (33:38) Stablecoins and national security concerns (34:00) The shift in congressional attitude (34:49) Stablecoins and dollar internationalization (37:40) Retail payments in high-inflation countries (38:41) The role of black markets (46:13) International B2B payments (01:02:57) The future of stablecoins (01:05:44) Wrap | |||
| The AI energy bottleneck, with Tim Fist | 17 Apr 2025 | 01:06:05 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Tim Fist, Director of Emerging Technologies at the Institute for Progress, to discuss how energy constraints could bottleneck AI development. They explore how AI training clusters will soon require gigawatts of power—equivalent to multiple nuclear plants—with projections showing a single cluster needing 5 gigawatts by 2030. Tim explains why behind-the-meter generation and geothermal energy offer promising solutions while regulatory hurdles like NEPA and transmission permitting create "litigation doom loops" that threaten America's competitiveness. The conversation covers the global race for compute infrastructure, with China and the UAE making aggressive investments while the US struggles with permitting delays, highlighting how energy policy will determine which nations lead the AI revolution. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-ai-energy-bottleneck-with-tim-fist/ Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex – Recommended in this episode:
– (00:00) Intro (00:40) Energy bottlenecks in AI development (02:56) Technical and policy solutions for energy needs (05:18) Challenges in transmission infrastructure (12:14) Behind the meter generation explained (17:50) Solar and storage: The future of energy (18:47) Sponsor: Vanta (20:05) Solar and storage: The future of energy (part 2) (29:07) Power purchase agreements and financing (33:17) Financing geothermal wells (33:53) The promise of geothermal energy (35:25) Challenges in geothermal adoption (36:59) Industrial applications of geothermal heat (45:01) Geothermal energy and national security (49:27) Global investments in AI and energy infrastructure (56:29) Policy and technical expertise in AI (01:00:54) The role of government in technological advancements (01:05:07) Wrap | |||
| Understanding and wielding power in local government, with Daniel Golliher | 24 Apr 2025 | 00:59:35 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Daniel Golliher, founder of Maximum New York, to discuss the opaque mechanics of political power and how everyday people can effectively engage with government systems. They explore the stark gap between formal political science degrees and how politics actually works, practical tactics for influencing policy (like optimizing the printability of a blog post to placing well-timed calls to legislators), and Daniel’s concept of ‘blue tape’. Throughout the conversation, they emphasize that participating in governance requires far less expertise and connections than most people assume—mainly just the willingness to show up prepared. – Full transcript available here: – Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex – Recommended in this episode:
– (00:00) Intro | |||
| Fixing government technology, with Mikey Dickerson | 01 May 2025 | 00:53:39 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Mikey Dickerson to discuss the complex realities behind government software projects. Mikey shares insights from leading the healthcare.gov rescue effort and founding the United States Digital Service, explaining how procurement processes create requirements through committee decision-making without market-based feedback loops. They explore how government systems handle software development differently than industry, with Mikey noting that the issues are less about individual competence and more about systemic incentives that reward risk aversion. The conversation covers the challenges of "modernization" efforts, the loss of organizational management knowledge over decades, and reflection on when and how technologists might effectively contribute to public service. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/fixing-government-technology-with-mikey-dickerson/ – This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC. – Recommended in this episode:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:24) Government software procurement (06:02) Fighter planes and requirements (08:37) Software development cycles (11:37) Deadline challenges (12:18) California vaccine scheduling (16:15) Pandemic priorities (17:27) Sponsor: Mercury (18:40) Government employee competence (22:30) Government pay scales (25:56) IRS modernization reports (34:33) Healthcare.gov lessons (36:59) Government software capability (40:29) Feedback loops in civil service (44:09) Legislative expertise (46:49) Applied mathematics (47:57) Loss of knowledge (49:28) Tour of duty recommendation (53:06) Wrap | |||
| Life insurance and your money, with Zac Townsend | 08 May 2025 | 01:20:53 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Zac Townsend, a serial founder and CEO of Meanwhile, a fully regulated life insurance company operating in Bitcoin. They explore the differences between life and property insurance, explain why term life is essential financial protection everyone should consider, and dive into the tax benefits that shape the industry. Zac shares insights on how private equity firms are acquiring insurers for their stable capital base, and explains Bermuda's role as the world's insurance capital. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/life-insurance-and-your-money-with-zac-townsend/ – This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC. – Recommended in this episode:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:23) Overview of Meanwhile Insurance (00:56) How Bitcoin is being used in the insurance industry (02:12) Understanding different types of insurance (06:13) Term life insurance explained (07:26) Life insurance tips for tech professionals (12:47) Permanent life insurance and annuities (18:57) Sponsor: Mercury (20:11) Insurance regulatory insights (25:46) Principal-agent problems in insurance (37:09) Tax considerations in life insurance (42:16) Leveraging life insurance for estate planning (44:55) Premium financing explained (47:39) Wealth management and market segmentation (52:09) Regulatory challenges and mispricing in insurance (01:03:32) Reinsurance and the role of bermuda (01:10:27) Private equity's interest in insurance (01:14:24) Building a crypto life insurance company (01:20:02) Wrap | |||
| The capitalist's guide to podcasting, with Ross Rheingans-Yoo | 22 May 2025 | 01:03:27 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and returning guest Ross Rheingans-Yoo discuss the strategic advantages of starting a podcast, particularly for professionals seeking to build trust, expand their networks, and support fundraising efforts. They explore the nuts and bolts of podcast production models, recording logistics, transcript creation, and how to make the experience frictionless for high-value guests. Ross shares his thought process around his newly-launched show Development and Research while Patrick gives a behind the scenes look at the makings of Complex Systems. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/capitalists-guide-to-podcasting-with-ross-rheingans-yoo – This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC. – Recommended in this episode:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:18) The power of podcasting for venture capitalists (03:09) Building trust through voice (07:11) Podcast production models (16:38) Recording and equipment essentials (23:05) Sponsor: Mercury (24:18) Post-production and transcripts (32:22) Advertising vs. User experience (33:28) Creating standalone artifacts (34:20) The power of video clips (35:22) Challenges in podcast distribution (42:12) The role of guests in podcasts (47:12) Pre-recording preparation (49:22) Recording session best practices (54:22) The value of silence in conversations (56:38) Launching and growing a podcast (59:18) Trading bootcamp (1:02:27) Wrap | |||
| Killing viruses with light, with Jacob Swett | 15 May 2025 | 01:01:43 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Jacob Swett of Blueprint Biosecurity to discuss far UVC technology - a specialized wavelength of UV light that kills airborne pathogens while remaining safe for humans. Jacob explains how widespread deployment of this technology in schools, hospitals, and public spaces could dramatically reduce respiratory diseases and prevent future pandemics, comparing our approach to air quality with the water sanitation revolution that eliminated diseases like typhoid. They discuss the economics of implementation (starting around $30 per student annually with costs likely decreasing), the historical reasons why this technology hasn't been widely deployed, and Blueprint Biosecurity's roadmap for increasing adoption from early users to eventual regulations similar to fire safety codes. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/killing-viruses-with-light-with-jacob-swett/ – This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC. – Recommended in this episode: – Timestamps: (00:31) The importance of indoor air quality (01:29) Technologies for cleaner air (02:31) The promise of Far-UVC (03:10) Impact of COVID-19 on air quality awareness (04:11) Understanding Far-UVC light (06:44) Applications and benefits of Far-UVC (16:42) Challenges and adoption of Far-UVC (20:40) Sponsor: Mercury (21:53) Challenges and adoption of Far-UVC (Part 2) (23:19) Cost and benefits of Far-UVC (26:40) The broader impact of respiratory pathogens (29:41) Rediscovering the world for better health (30:05) Historical perspectives on infectious diseases (30:57) The role of sanitation and antibiotics (33:02) Miasma theory and airborne transmission (34:59) Impact of World War II on disease research (38:06) The evolution of public health priorities (42:39) Future of Far-UVC Technology (46:03) Challenges in implementing Far-UVC (56:47) The importance of rigorous studies (01:00:33) Wrap | |||
| How to negotiate your salary package | 29 May 2025 | 00:45:21 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) revisits his widely-shared negotiation essay, which he notes may be the most impactful thing he's done in his career aside from VaccinateCA. The essay covers the psychology and tactics of salary negotiation, emphasizing that engineers have turned being bad at negotiation into a "perverse badge of virtue" and that the financial stakes are enormous—a small salary increase compounds over decades to six-figure differences. Patrick walks through practical advice including never giving a number first, understanding how employers actually think about compensation costs, and reframing negotiation as a professional business discussion rather than something morally questionable. – Full transcript available here: – This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC. Recommended in this episode:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:25) Why negotiation matters (05:21) Shifting your mindset to embrace negotiation (06:49) Your counterparty does not share your mental model of negotiation (12:46) Your negotiation started before you applied to this job (17:21) When does a salary negotiation happen? (19:38) Sponsor: Mercury (23:16) The first rule is what everyone tells you it is: never give a number first (28:45) Listen to what people tell you. Repeat it back to them. (33:22) Research, research, research (37:13) New information is valuable and can be traded for things you want (41:20) You have a multi-dimensional preference set. Use it. (44:08:) For your further perusal | |||
| Getting better at LLMs, with Zvi Mowshowitz | 12 Jun 2025 | 00:51:50 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) recorded with Zvi Mowshowitz (TheZvi) live at the LessOnline conference. They explore practical strategies for getting better results from large language models. Zvi explains how to customize AI behavior through thoughtful system prompts, while Patrick shares techniques for using LLMs as writing partners and research assistants. They discuss the evolving relationship between content creators and AI training data, touching on the emerging field of "generative engine optimization" (GEO). The conversation also covers multimodal capabilities, recursive AI use, and strategies for avoiding common failure modes like hallucination and sycophancy. – Sponsor: Vanta Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex – Links:
– Timestamps: (01:08) Understanding system prompts (02:04) Customizing LLM behavior (05:58) Memory features in LLMs (10:21) Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) (15:59) Sponsor: Vanta (17:17) Art and AI: Enhancing creativity (20:36) Recursive use of AIs (25:22) Addressing LLM frustrations (27:05) Checking for hallucinations in AI outputs (28:11) Experimenting with AI models (29:44) Optimizing AI prompts and outputs (31:19) Using AI for writing and editing (32:32) AI as a research and writing partner (33:26) Prompting AI and humans effectively (39:39) Balancing AI assistance with personal voice (51:03) Wrap | |||
| Machine learning meets malware, with Caleb Fenton | 05 Jun 2025 | 01:21:16 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) discusses software reversing and AI's transformative impact on cybersecurity with Caleb Fenton, co-founder of Delphos Labs. They explore how LLMs are revolutionizing the traditionally tedious work of analyzing compiled binaries, the nation-state cyber warfare landscape, and how AI is shifting security from reactive to proactive defense. They cover the technical details of malware analysis, the economics of vulnerability detection, and the broader implications as both defenders and attackers gain access to increasingly powerful AI tools. Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/machine-learning-meets-malware-with-caleb-fenton/ – Sponsor: Mercury This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC. Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:20) Understanding software reversing (03:52) The role of AI in software security (06:12) Nation-state cyber warfare (09:33) The future of digital warfare (16:45) Sponsor: Mercury (17:49) Reverse engineering techniques (30:15) AI's impact on reverse engineering (41:45) The importance of urgency in security alerts (42:47) The future of reverse engineering (43:21) Challenges in security product development (44:46) AI in vulnerability detection (46:09) The evolution of AI models (48:06) Reasoning models and their impact (49:06) AI in software security (49:49) The role of linters in security (57:38) AI's impact on various fields (01:02:42) AI in education and skill acquisition (01:08:51) The future of AI in security and beyond (01:12:43) The adversarial nature of AI in security (01:19:46) Wrap | |||
| The AI infrastructure stack with Jennifer Li, a16z | 26 Jun 2025 | 00:45:50 | |
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Jennifer Li, a general partner at a16z investing in enterprise, infrastructure and AI. Jennifer breaks down how AI workloads are creating new demands on everything from inference pipelines to observability systems, explaining why we're seeing a bifurcation between language models and diffusion models at the infrastructure level. They explore emerging categories like reinforcement learning environments that help train agents, the evolution of web scraping for agentic workflows, and why Jennifer believes the API economy is about to experience another boom as agents become the primary consumers of software interfaces. – Sponsor: Vanta Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Intro | |||
| Think like a trader, with Ricki Heicklen | 10 Jul 2025 | 01:55:18 | |
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Ricki Heicklen to discuss the evolution of her trading education business, Arbor, one year after their first conversation. They dive deep into the pedagogy of trading, exploring how simulated markets teach concepts like adverse selection, team dynamics, and risk management through hands-on experience. Ricki shares war stories from the bootcamp trenches—infinite loop bugs that mirror Knight Capital's disaster, WiFi outages that create unexpected trading opportunities, and that the most successful trading teams often focus on internal team communication even more than trade execution or technical acumen. See the full transcript: – [Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes.You can access them directly on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.] – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:46) Ricki's journey from trading to teaching (01:25) The birth of Arbor and first bootcamps (03:32) Developing a trader's mindset (05:53) Understanding heuristics in trading (08:21) Adverse selection in everyday life (15:40) Insights from teaching trading bootcamps (21:07) Pedagogical approach: learning by doing (32:00) Handling mistakes and learning opportunities (36:17) Unplanned bugs and real-world lessons (39:47) Learning from Knight Capital's bug (40:24) Understanding exchange-side bugs (43:10) Risk limits and strategy separation (44:41) Importance of UI in trading bots (46:53) The Madagascar button (48:20) The big red button in manufacturing (49:45) Simulated trading and information aggregation (50:29) Sibling trading game explained (53:24) Modeling and hidden information (01:01:15) Trading behavior and market updates (01:04:38) Real-world applications and lessons (01:13:58) Surprises and market opportunities (01:16:24) Pedagogical approaches in trading education (01:17:08) Market dynamics and counterparty behavior (01:17:53) Retail vs. institutional order flow (01:19:23) Simplifying trading concepts for beginners (01:21:27) Introducing market characters and their roles (01:31:31) Team dynamics and communication in trading (01:39:13) The importance of redundancy in trading systems (01:47:52) Future of trading education and online classes (01:53:47) Wrap | |||
| Achieving results in the physical world, with Adam Jarvis of “Public Service” | 03 Jul 2025 | 01:09:10 | |
Patrick McKenzie is joined by Adam Jarvis, author of the Public Service substack and a New Zealand civil engineer and public sector veteran. They discuss how political capital constraints, funding misalignment across government levels, and accumulated regulatory "scar tissue" make infrastructure projects extraordinarily difficult. The conversation reveals why replacing a water pipe now costs more in planning than the entire project did a decade ago, and how talent sorting has drained capacity from public institutions. Despite these challenges, Patrick and Adam find reasons for optimism about reforming government capacity. Complex Systems now has video episodes as well. Watch this episode and subscribe at: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast – Links:
– Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction to Complex Systems | |||