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AppLovin (APP) stock fell 38% after earnings — but is the digital advertising thesis actually broken, or is this a buying opportunity?

Shares dropped roughly 38% after AppLovin's latest report, and investors are asking whether the mobile-ad-turned-AI-advertising company can keep growing into its valuation. In this episode, we map the entire digital ad supply chain, from the walled gardens (Google, Meta, Amazon) that control roughly two-thirds of digital ad spend, down to the demand-side and supply-side platforms competing around them.

We trace AppLovin's path from a 2012 mobile-game user-acquisition tool into one of the largest software companies in digital advertising, powered by its Axon 2.0 AI algorithm. We cover the sale of its game studios to Tripledot, its push into e-commerce through a Shopify integration, and why the market is worried about decelerating revenue growth alongside historically high operating and free cash flow margins. Using our new Custom Supply Chain tool, we compare AppLovin against Omnicom, The Trade Desk, Google, and Magnite to show where value actually accrues and share our own take as long-time shareholders.

If you're deciding whether AppLovin is a buy after this sell-off, this is the fundamentals-first framework to make that call yourself.

If you want the reasoning behind more names like this one, Semiconductor Insider covers the process in more depth. Get access to all our research, weekly live Q&A events, and a growing set of tools to build your process: https://www.chipstockinvestor.com

All our socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor

If you're getting value from the show, follow so you don't miss the next one.

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Disclosure: Some links above are affiliate links. If you buy something through them, we might earn a little coffee money — thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction.

Content in this episode is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.

CSI owns shares of AppLovin.

Enovix stock just hit an all-time low — and then the CEO abruptly resigned. We break down the Q2 2026 earnings, the cash runway, and whether this small bet is still worth holding.

Enovix (ENVX) stock cratered to an all-time low following its Q2 2026 earnings update, and just days later, CEO Dr. Raj Talluri announced his departure — poached by Kulicke & Soffa, a fast-growing advanced packaging and semiconductor equipment company.

In this episode, we break down what's really happening with Enovix's silicon-anode lithium-ion battery technology, including the jump from silicon to silicon oxide to silicon-carbon composite chemistry that pushed cycle life from as few as 10 charges to over 1,000. We cover the company's smartphone qualification progress (including a leading Chinese OEM), its commercial smart glasses order, and why revenue guidance of roughly $9.5 million against higher capital expenditures spooked the market.

We also dig into the balance sheet: $476 million in cash and equivalents, $74 million in longer-term investments, over $520 million in debt, and a cash burn rate that raises real questions about future capital raises. Is this pre-revenue R&D story finally turning the corner into commercialization — or is production hell just getting started? We share why this remains a small, high-risk position in our portfolio and what we're watching heading into 2027.

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If you want the reasoning behind more names like this one, Semiconductor Insider covers the process in more depth. Get access to all our research, weekly live Q&A events, and a growing set of tools to build your process: https://www.chipstockinvestor.com

All our socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor

If you're getting value from the show, follow so you don't miss the next one.

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Disclosure: Some links above are affiliate links. If you buy something through them, we might earn a little coffee money — thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction.

Content in this episode is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. CSI owns shares of Enovix.

Fastly's revenue just re-accelerated into the mid-20% range — but our reverse DCF says the stock still needs 22%+ FCF growth for a decade to justify $26. Here's why that's a hard pass for now.

Part 3 of our CDN series puts Fastly under the microscope after comparing it against Cloudflare and Akamai. We walk through our full investment thesis checklist — supply chain position, technology stickiness, revenue model, and capital structure — before running a reverse DCF on Fastly's free cash flow per share.

Revenue growth has re-accelerated, and operating margins are improving, but GAAP profitability still lags Cloudflare, stock-based compensation remains elevated relative to revenue, and share dilution is running well above our target threshold. We also look at customer stickiness — including the loss of a major account to Cloudflare — as a proxy for platform depth and competitive moat.

The result: Fastly lands on our watchlist rather than our buy list, with a price level flagged for renewed interest if shares pull back meaningfully. We close the series by connecting CDN infrastructure to the broader AI infrastructure buildout, and how a small CDN/cybersecurity basket — anchored by Cloudflare — fits inside a semiconductor and infrastructure-focused portfolio.

Research-backed analysis, not a stock tip. Always do your own due diligence.

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Members of Semiconductor Insider get our complete company-by-company research, valuation models, and portfolio allocation notes on Cloudflare, Akamai, and Fastly, plus weekly live Q&A and a growing set of tools to build your process: https://www.chipstockinvestor.com

All our socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor

If you're getting value from the show, follow so you don't miss the next one.

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Disclosure: Some links above are affiliate links. If you buy something through them, we might earn a little coffee money — thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction.

Content in this episode is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. CSI doesn't own shares of Fastly.

Cloudflare is growing 30%+ a year — but our supply chain mapping shows a warning sign most investors are missing.

In this deep dive, we map the entire CDN supply chain — from hyperscaler and neocloud infrastructure down to enterprise software and e-commerce end markets — using our new Custom Supply Chain research tool. We break down where Cloudflare, Akamai, and Fastly actually sit relative to vertically integrated competitors like AWS, Microsoft, and Google, all of whom now run in-house CDNs.

We cover how neoclouds like CoreWeave and Nebius fit into the AI infrastructure picture, why DigitalOcean's CDN relationship with Cloudflare matters, and which enterprise software names (Salesforce, ServiceNow, SAP, Palo Alto Networks) rely on which providers. Then we use the mapping to evaluate competitive positioning, pricing power, and where profit is actually accruing in the data center and cloud infrastructure ecosystem.

If you're researching Cloudflare, Akamai's turnaround potential, or Fastly's multi-CDN diversification thesis, this framework will change how you evaluate these names.

Members of Semiconductor Insider get our complete company-by-company research, valuation models, and portfolio allocation notes on Cloudflare, Akamai, and Fastly, plus weekly live Q&A and a growing set of tools to build your process: https://www.chipstockinvestor.com

All our socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor

If you're getting value from the show, follow so you don't miss the next one.

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Disclosure: Some links above are affiliate links. If you buy something through them, we might earn a little coffee money — thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction.

Content in this episode is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. CSI owns shares of Cloudflare.

CDNs have quietly become one of the most important layers of internet and AI infrastructure, moving everything from website traffic to large-scale AI data transfer. In this episode we compare the three public leaders — Cloudflare (NET), Akamai (AKAM), and Fastly (FSLY) — on revenue growth, gross margin, operating margin, free cash flow margin, and balance sheet strength.

We also give you a first look at the new Chip Stock Investor research dashboard, launching in September at chipstockinvestor.com. The CDN comparison is the demo: everything you hear us pull up, you'll be able to run yourself.

A few things that stood out:

• Cloudflare, another 30%+ quarter (33.5% growth) with net cash, but trading near 40x sales at a $110B+ market cap.
• Akamai is larger by revenue, but carrying $4.2B in net debt after an acquisition-led push into cloud infrastructure.
• Fastly, growth re-accelerated past 20%, putting the smallest of the three back in the value conversation.

Full company-by-company research, valuation models, and portfolio allocation notes go live for Semiconductor Insider members in September: https://www.chipstockinvestor.com

All our socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor

Chapters:
(0:00) Why the CDN market matters for AI infrastructure
(1:00) What a CDN actually does
(3:00) How each company differentiates: security, compute, observability
(3:45) Live dashboard: market cap and revenue
(4:00) Revenue growth: Cloudflare's 33.5% vs. Akamai's slowdown
(5:00) Margins that matter: gross, operating, free cash flow
(6:00) Balance sheet: net cash vs. Akamai's $4.2B net debt
(6:30) Long-term revenue trajectory
(7:00) Cloudflare valuation: is 40x sales too rich?
(8:00) Portfolio moves: trimming Cloudflare, Akamai's turnaround, Fastly's upside

CSI owns shares of Cloudflare. Content is for general information or entertainment only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.

Super Micro Computer is trending on social media again. Before you follow the hype, here's what the actual numbers say.

CSI breaks down SMCI's most recent quarter using fiscal.ai data — gross profit margin below 11% and guided to stay near the trough, rising revenue with stagnant operating profit, and free cash flow that has been negative for most of the company's history. We also unpack the $7 billion equity and equity-linked financing raise from June 2026, the new SMCIP preferred stock paying a 7% dividend, and what that means for where common shareholders sit in the pecking order for future cash flows.We dig into the accounts payable and receivable dynamics behind SMCI's competitive pricing strategy, and why the lack of an in-house financing arm — unlike Dell, HPE, and Lenovo — remains a structural headwind that the headlines are not talking about.Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.CSI doesn't own shares of Supermicro

Applied Materials just guided toward its first ever quarter exceeding ten billion dollars in revenue, with year-over-year growth above fifty percent at the midpoint. Nick breaks down the full AMAT update for August 2026 — results, guidance, the China recovery, and whether the stock still belongs in a portfolio after the selloff.

Q3 fiscal year 2026 came in at nine point one billion in revenue with gross margins at fifty percent and operating margins above thirty percent. China is back in growth mode at roughly two point three billion in revenue.

The ICAPS segment covering power, optical, and automotive is recovering. Applied is doubling manufacturing capacity by 2028. A reverse DCF suggests the stock is pricing in twenty-four percent annual earnings per share growth — not cheap, but CSI remains long.

For in-depth research and the Semiconductor Insider membership, visit chipstockinvestor.com. Use fiscal.ai/csi for 15% off any paid plan.

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Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.

CSI owns shares of AMAT.

DigitalOcean just raised its 2026 growth guidance to 30–31%, and the stock sold off anyway.

In this episode we work through what DigitalOcean's (DOCN) Q2 update actually changed. Management lifted full-year 2026 revenue guidance from 25–27% to 30–31% and pointed to a possible 50%+ growth rate exiting fiscal 2027.

The driver is a scaling cohort of large enterprise and developer customers landing in a supply-constrained compute market — the same capacity bottleneck hyperscalers like Microsoft have flagged around data center construction.

We cover the shift from an SMB cloud provider toward a developer and enterprise-scaler platform, why the co-location approach gives it an edge over hyperscalers building from the ground up, and how management reworked the balance sheet by retiring convertible debt, raising cash, and continuing buybacks.

We also run a DCF scenario assuming a 36% five-year per-share profit CAGR, and talk through why the move from small-cap to midcap matters for a fundamentals-first thesis.

For the reasoning behind more names like this one, Semiconductor Insider covers the process in more depth. Get access to all our research, weekly live Q&A events, and a growing set of tools to build your process: https://www.chipstockinvestor.com

All our socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor

If this was useful, follow the show so new episodes land in your feed.

Disclaimer: Content is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.

CSI owns shares of DigitalOcean.

A practicing pathologist explains why DaVita, UnitedHealth, and Natera are playing fundamentally different games — and why one of them could break first.

Investing in healthcare stocks requires a different framework than semiconductor investing. In this excerpt from a CSI live Q&A, we sit down with Dr. Brad Gibson — a practicing pathologist and private-practice partner — to break down how the US healthcare system actually gets paid, and what that means for stock picking.

Brad walks through four investable buckets: medical service providers (DaVita, Natera, TransMedics), health insurers (UnitedHealth, CVS, Cigna, Elevance), pharmaceutical companies (Eli Lilly, Vertex), and healthcare hardware/software providers (Stryker, Veeva, Intuitive Surgical).

The conversation covers Medicaid and Medicare reimbursement mechanics, CPT codes and RVU conversion factors, why private practices are being pushed into hospital consolidation, how pharmacy benefit managers generate profit through rebates, and why UnitedHealthcare's vertical integration has drawn regulatory scrutiny. Brad also gives his take on AI in pathology and drug discovery, and explains why he's more concerned about a healthcare cost bubble than an AI bubble.

If you're building a healthcare investing thesis for 2026, this is where to start.

If you want the reasoning behind more names like this one, Semiconductor Insider covers the process in more depth: https://www.chipstockinvestor.com

All our socials: https://linktr.ee/chipstockinvestor

Content in this episode is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.

SanDisk (SNDK) fell from $2,000 to $1,200 as memory stocks sold off hard — but is the panic justified? In this episode, Chip Stock Investor breaks down what the fundamentals actually say before you react to the crash.

We cover SanDisk's Q1 fiscal 2027 guidance — still 300–400% year-over-year revenue growth, but decelerating — the guide to roughly $45 in adjusted EPS, and why a debt-free balance sheet plus $4.5 billion in buybacks points to a healthy pivot toward shareholder returns.

Then we dig into the technology roadmap: High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) and the new SanDisk/SK hynix spec for Google and Tenstorrent. We also unpack SanDisk's equity investment in Nanya Technology and the strategy behind bringing DRAM supply in-house, away from NAND competitors.

Finally, we get into the real reasons memory stocks are crashing — institutional rebalancing, leveraged unwinds, the semiconductor cycle, and rising competition from Yangtze Memory and Solidigm — and whether SNDK is a falling knife or a long-term opportunity.
Semi Insider members get access to CSI's research platform and tools plus deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com

Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.CSI owns shares of Sandisk

Palantir just reported Q2 2026 earnings, and the headline number, revenue nearly doubling year over year, only tells part of the story. We go beyond the standard quarterly earnings review to unpack what's actually driving Palantir's acceleration: AIP, its AI platform built to help enterprises deploy AI without handing proprietary data to the large AI labs.

We look at the data behind the deployment phase of the AI cycle, why US commercial customer revenue jumped 149 percent even as customer count grew far more slowly, and what nearly 220 million dollar-plus deals signal about enterprise demand.

We also run a reverse discounted cash flow on Palantir's current valuation, walk through management's own eighteen month growth targets, and revisit the ethical and government contract concerns we flagged when we first covered this stock two years ago.

This is a research-backed look at whether Palantir's AIP business justifies its valuation, and whether it belongs in a long-term semiconductor and AI-adjacent portfolio.

Semi Insider members get access to Chip Stock Investor's research platform and tools plus deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com.

Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. Chip Stock Investor does not own shares of Palantir.

Rocket Lab has proposed acquiring Iridium Communications in an eight billion dollar deal combining new stock issuance and cash. We break down why this move pushes Rocket Lab toward becoming a fully vertically integrated space economy company, spanning satellite components, spacecraft manufacturing, launch services through Electron and the upcoming Neutron rocket, and now satellite-based communications through Iridium's L-band constellation. We walk through our updated investment thesis checklist, Q1 2026 earnings showing revenue up 63 percent year over year, and the combined pro forma financials: roughly one point six billion dollars in trailing twelve month revenue, a swing from negative to near breakeven EBITDA, and Iridium's 288 million dollars in free cash flow offsetting Rocket Lab's cash burn. We also cover the balance sheet impact of Rocket Lab moving from net cash to net debt, and run a reverse discounted cash flow to solve for the growth rate the market is currently pricing in at roughly a 50 billion dollar enterprise value. Is Rocket Lab stock a buy after the sell-off, or still priced for perfection? We share where we stand.

Semi Insider members get access to Chip Stock Investor's research platform and tools plus deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com.

Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. Chip Stock Investor does not own shares of Rocket Lab.

Alphabet Q2 2026 earnings show a company with two different stories depending on where you look, and we break down the conglomerate discount hiding in the balance sheet.

Google Cloud revenue jumped to over 24 billion dollars for the quarter, up 80 percent year over year, with operating income approaching nine billion dollars, now over 20 percent of Alphabet's total operating income. Trailing twelve month GAAP operating profit has grown faster than revenue, driven by Search and Cloud strength.

But capital expenditures are changing the picture fast. Alphabet's 2026 capex guidance now sits near 200 billion dollars as part of the broader hyperscaler AI infrastructure buildout, pushing quarterly free cash flow negative for the first time in this cycle.

We go beyond the headline numbers to explain why data transparency issues around Alphabet's variable interest entities, equity derivatives, and credit derivatives make the balance sheet harder to analyze than it looks. We also cover Alphabet's forward valuation and the semiconductor read through from continued AI infrastructure spending.

Semi Insider members get access to Chip Stock Investor's research platform and tools plus deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com.

Chip Stock Investor and/or its hosts currently hold a position in Alphabet stock. Nothing in this content is financial advice; do your own research before making investment decisions.

Nearly $580 billion in trailing twelve-month capital expenditure across Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle, Tesla, and SpaceX. Full year 2026 approaching $900 billion. CSI's 2027 estimate: $1.5 trillion. CSI breaks down the Q2 hyperscaler CapEx numbers and makes the case for why the semiconductor bull market remains intact despite a volatile few weeks for chip stocks.AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, and Oracle are all reporting multi-year backlogs. Amazon just raised its 2026 CapEx guide to $220 billion, partly driven by rising memory prices — sending more capital directly to the semiconductor supply chain. Gartner revised data center spending up to $820 billion for 2026, a sixty-three percent year-over-year increase. The recent pullback looks like a leverage unwind, not a fundamental shift.For in-depth research and the Semiconductor Insider membership, visit chipstockinvestor.com. Use fiscal.ai/csi for 15% off any paid plan.Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.CSI owns shares of Meta, Alphabet, Oracle, and Amazon.

Seagate's latest results show hard disk drives making a real comeback as NAND and SSD prices rise and hyperscalers turn to HDDs for flexible, massive AI storage capacity. CSI breaks down a quarter where exabyte shipments grew 34% year over year, with 90% going to data centers, data center revenue up 57% to $2.9 billion, and total revenue up 48%.

The conversation covers Seagate's broad shipments of Mozaic 3, the ramp of 40TB-plus Mozaic 4 with the two largest global cloud service providers, and plans for Mozaic 5 qualification shipments in late 2027. We also dig into how Seagate plans to grow without expanding manufacturing capacity, using vertically integrated HAMR technology to increase terabytes per drive, and how that strategy is driving profitability, debt reduction, buybacks, and dividend support.

Finally, we look at guidance for Q1 FY2027, which implies revenue of roughly $4.1 billion, about 36% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, and what that means for the broader memory cycle story heading into 2027.

Semi Insider members get access to CSI's research platform and tools, plus deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com.

Get 15% off your fiscal.ai membership with our link: fiscal.ai/csi

This content is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategy discussed will be successful. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. CSI owns shares of Seagate.

ServiceNow has been hammered in the software selloff, but our Q2 2026 earnings breakdown reveals a business quietly repositioning itself for the AI edge. CEO Bill McDermott and CFO Gina Mastantuono delivered 25% year-over-year revenue growth, accelerating subscription guidance, and two strategic acquisitions, Veza and Armis, that push ServiceNow into identity, access, and device-level cybersecurity. We break down why McDermott calls this the fastest-growing risk and security business among the top 10 enterprise cybersecurity players, and why the market still treats ServiceNow like an AI-era loser rather than an edge-AI beneficiary.

The conversation covers GAAP versus non-GAAP metrics, including a 55% decline in GAAP operating income, balance sheet strength post-acquisitions, full-year subscription revenue guidance near $16 billion, and a reverse DCF on free cash flow per share to gauge what the current stock price is actually pricing in. We also compare ServiceNow's cybersecurity revenue against pure-play peers like Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, and Fortinet using data from our research dashboard.

If you're evaluating semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks, foundry exposure, or non-correlated edge-AI plays for portfolio diversification, this ServiceNow deep dive lays out both the bull case and the real risks.

Semi Insider members get access to CSI's research platform and tools, plus deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com.

Get 15% off your fiscal.ai membership with our link: fiscal.ai/csi

This content is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategy discussed will be successful. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. CSI owns shares of ServiceNow.

Honeywell has completed its long-awaited breakup, separating Honeywell Aerospace from the newly focused Honeywell Technologies. CSI walks through Honeywell's Q2 2026 earnings report, covering the building automation, process automation, and industrial automation segments, and explains why organic sales growth alone doesn't tell the full story: the real story is what's happening to margins.

The conversation digs into the recently closed Johnson Matthey Catalyst Technologies acquisition, the LNG equipment business driving process automation orders, and the divestitures of Honeywell's productivity solutions and warehouse and workflow segments. It also covers the balance sheet, including nearly $34 billion in total debt offset by asset sale proceeds, and Honeywell's 47% remaining equity stake in newly public quantum computing company Quantinuum.

Finally, CSI runs Honeywell Technologies stock through a reverse discounted cash flow model using updated adjusted EPS guidance to estimate fair value, and discusses what would make this semiconductor-adjacent industrial and energy transition stock a stronger buy. If you're a long-term fundamental investor tracking the semiconductor supply chain, AI infrastructure spending, and the industrial automation cycle, this breakdown is for you.

Semi Insider members get access to CSI's research platform and tools, plus deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com.

Get 15% off your fiscal.ai membership with our link: fiscal.ai/csi

This content is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategy discussed will be successful. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. CSI owns shares of Honeywell.

Intuitive Surgical posted double-digit growth in revenue, procedures, and installed base but ISRG stock is down over 40% from its highs. We dig into why the market is repricing this healthcare stock despite strong fundamentals.

Da Vinci procedure growth came in at 15% year-over-year, the installed base grew 12% to nearly 12,000 systems worldwide, and revenue hit $2.9 billion, up 19% year-over-year. Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 70%. Yet none of that has stopped the stock's slide.

We break down Intuitive Surgical's revenue mix between recurring instruments and accessories, systems revenue, and services, and walk through what's actually driving the selloff. That includes the impact of ACA subsidy expirations on elective procedure volume, hospital capital spending trends, GLP-1 headwinds on bariatric surgery, and semiconductor memory cost pressures mentioned on the earnings call. We also cover the Extended Use Program and a recent FDA filing as potential positive catalysts, along with full year 2026 guidance.

Finally, we run a reverse DCF to figure out what growth rate is actually priced into ISRG stock today, and whether this sets up as a legitimate buy-the-dip opportunity for long-term investors or if there's more downside ahead.

Semi Insider members get access to CSI's research platform and tools, plus deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com.

Get 15% off your fiscal.ai membership with our link: fiscal.ai/csi

This content is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. CSI owns shares of Intuitive Surgical.

Mycronic just raised full-year guidance after a surprise rebound in equipment orders, and the stock already popped on the news. Here's what's actually driving the turnaround, and why we're still on the sidelines.

Mycronic is a Swedish semiconductor equipment company that plays on the edges of the core wafer fab process, supplying pattern generators for photomask production, along with test, chip packaging, and PCB assembly equipment. In this episode, we break down Mycronic's Q2 2026 earnings, including a 7% year-over-year decline in its largest segment, Pattern Generators, offset by a 118% surge in Global Technologies, its fastest-growing test and packaging business. We also cover the smaller High Volume and PCB Assembly Solutions segments, one of which is undergoing restructuring after a recent acquisition underperformed.

Combined net sales grew 17% year over year, and management raised full-year 2026 guidance by roughly 500 million SEK. We dig into Mycronic's tuck-in acquisition strategy, balance sheet strength (net cash, minimal debt), and run a reverse discounted cash flow model to estimate fair value.

If you're looking for semiconductor equipment exposure beyond the "Fab Five" — ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and KLA — Mycronic is worth understanding, even if it's not a stock we're buying right now.

Semi Insider members get access to CSI's research platform and tools plus deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com.

Full research and stock tools: https://chipstockinvestor.com
Get 15% off your fiscal.ai membership with our link: https://fiscal.ai/csi

Content in this podcast is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.

Netflix just posted its slowest revenue growth in over a year, and the stock got hammered. We break down why the sell-off might be mispricing what's actually happening underneath the numbers.

Netflix's Q2 2026 earnings sparked a sharp market reaction, with growth decelerating and forward guidance coming in around 12% for Q3 and Q4. Using fiscal.ai data, we compare Netflix's 325+ million paying subscribers against Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery/Paramount+, Amazon Prime Video, and ad-supported giants like YouTube and Meta. We dig into why Netflix remains the clear leader in paid streaming even as its ad-tier data center buildout has yet to reaccelerate top-line growth.

On the financials side, we cover Netflix's 33% operating margin, $3.4 billion in GAAP net income, and $1.5 billion in free cash flow for the quarter, plus the lingering cash impact from the terminated Warner Bros. Discovery merger talks. Then we move to valuation: trailing and forward P/E and price-to-free-cash-flow multiples, and why this may be the cheapest Netflix has traded in three to four years.

Is Netflix transitioning from a high-growth streaming stock to a steady, profitable value stock, and does that make current levels an entry point? We break down what the market is pricing in for long-term EPS growth and whether the bar has been set low enough to matter for long-term investors.

Semi Insider members get access to CSI's research platform and tools plus deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com.

Full research and stock tools: https://chipstockinvestor.com
Get 15% off your fiscal.ai membership with our link: https://fiscal.ai/csi

Content in this podcast is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.

CSI owns shares of Netflix.

Intel's recent rally has investors asking whether the turnaround is real, but the answer may have less to do with wafer manufacturing and more to do with advanced packaging. We break down EMIB (Embedded Multi-Die Interconnect Bridge) and Foveros, Intel's chip-to-chip interconnect technologies, and compare them directly against TSMC's CoWoS-S, CoWoS-R, and CoWoS-L packaging families.

We explain the technical differences in plain language, including interposers, redistribution layers, local silicon interconnects, and through-silicon vias, and why Intel's substrate-embedded bridge approach could offer a real diversification opportunity as AI shifts from training to inference workloads. We also cover Intel's packaging partnerships, including the Google TPU relationship, and why Nvidia's dominance in AI training leaves TSMC's CoWoS capacity fully booked, potentially opening a lane for Intel elsewhere.

Finally, we zoom out to portfolio strategy: why understanding the technology layer matters less as this AI bull market matures, and why valuation discipline and balance sheet health deserve more of your attention going forward.

Semi Insider members get access to CSI's research platform, tools, and deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com.

This content is for general information and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. Forecasts may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategy discussed will be successful. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. CSI does not own shares of Intel.

Solstice Advanced Materials is acquiring Element Solutions (NYSE: ESI) in a $4.5 billion deal that would create a combined semiconductor and electronics materials supplier generating close to $8 billion in annual revenue, and the market didn't love it. Here's what the numbers actually say.

We break down the acquisition terms, including why ESI shareholders are receiving $10 in cash plus 0.5 shares of Solstice stock for every share owned, and the projected 26% adjusted EBITDA margin after cost synergies. We dig into both companies' individual balance sheets, free cash flow trends, and revenue mix, including advanced packaging materials, refrigerants, data center cooling, and nuclear services, to explain why the market reacted negatively despite the strategic logic.

We also compare this consolidation trend to peer Entegris (ENTG) and the broader semiconductor supply chain materials space heading into 2026. If you're tracking semiconductor cycle recovery, foundry demand, or fabless supply chain exposure, this merger matters more than the initial stock reaction suggests.

Semi Insider members get access to CSI's research platform, tools, and deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com. Get 15% off your membership at fiscal.ai/csi.

This content is for general information and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. Forecasts may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategy discussed will be successful. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. CSI does not own shares of Solstice or Element Solutions.

Hyperscaler capital expenditure is on pace to hit $800 billion in 2026, up from $482 billion just a few quarters ago, and the trajectory points toward $1 trillion by 2027. This is the real driver behind the 2026 semiconductor cycle, especially the strength in memory and optical stocks, and it matters more than any single quarterly earnings beat.

We break down why this AI data center buildout is the primary macro force behind the current cycle, why the "rotation out of tech" narrative that surfaced in early July doesn't hold up under scrutiny, and how hyperscaler free cash flow and balance sheet strength can sustain this spending for years. We also look beyond semis to power, grid, and construction names benefiting from the buildout, and what happens to hyperscaler margins if CapEx growth eventually slows.

Data and charts referenced in this episode are sourced from fiscal.ai.

If you're building a diversified semiconductor and AI infrastructure portfolio, understanding the hyperscaler CapEx cycle is essential to tracking where this cycle goes next.

Semi Insider members get access to CSI's research platform, tools, and deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com. Get 15% off your membership at fiscal.ai/csi.

This content is for general information and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. Forecasts may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategy discussed will be successful. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. CSI owns shares of Amazon, Meta, & Google.

Qualcomm just held its 2026 Investor Day, and the headline number is a new $15 billion AI data center revenue target for 2029 — up from essentially zero two years ago. We break down whether this fabless smartphone-royalty giant can actually pull off a pivot into AI data centers.

We cover the AlphaWave Semiconductor acquisition and why Arm-based data center networking IP matters to hyperscaler customers, Qualcomm's 3D-stacked silicon packaging approach designed to work around the high bandwidth memory bottleneck amid the 2026 memory shortage, and the Modular acquisition — an AI-native software platform positioned as a potential CUDA alternative.

On fundamentals, we walk through the revenue mix as smartphone growth slows to a 5% CAGR following the Apple wind-down, and why automotive and IoT are beating original targets. We close with a reverse DCF on the ~$190 stock price to see how much growth is already priced in, and why QCOM still holds a place in our portfolio as a diversified, value-oriented semiconductor stock.

Content is for general information and entertainment only, not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. CSI owns shares of Qualcomm.

Semi Insider members get full access to our research platform and tools. Join at chipstockinvestor.com.

IBM just unveiled NanoStack, its take on the CFET transistor architecture that succeeds gate-all-around as the next step in chip scaling — and it could turn IBM's patent portfolio into a real semiconductor royalty business.

IBM claims NanoStack delivers up to a 50% jump in compute performance or a 70% gain in energy efficiency versus its 2021 two-nanometer IP. IBM sold its chip manufacturing business to GlobalFoundries back in 2015, yet it still holds one of the largest patent portfolios in the industry, and IP licensing and custom development income made up nearly 10% of IBM's GAAP net income in 2025. We break down IBM's 2025 revenue, R&D spend, and licensing income, then identify who benefits most across the supply chain, including ASML, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and Screen Holdings as advanced lithography, etch, deposition, and wafer-cleaning suppliers to Rapidus, the Japanese foundry startup aiming to ramp production by 2027.

This is part of our ongoing coverage of the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain and the next 15 years of chip advancement.

Full research is available for members at Semiconductor Insider — join at chipstockinvestor.com.

Get 15% off your membership with our link: fiscal.ai/csi

Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.

Marvell (NASDAQ: MRVL) stock has surged since Jensen Huang called it the next trillion-dollar company — we ran a reverse DCF on the Q1 FY2027 earnings to see if the rally is justified.

Marvell just posted record Q1 fiscal 2027 results, with revenue up 28% year-over-year to $2.4 billion and guidance pointing to 35% growth next quarter. As a fabless chip designer and IP licenser, Marvell is riding two major tailwinds: hyperscaler demand for custom AI chips (ASICs and XPUs) and networking systems that interconnect GPUs across data centers, including a growing partnership with NVIDIA via NVLink.

We break down the earnings report, the CFO transition to Dan Durn (formerly of Adobe and Applied Materials), the balance sheet impact of the Celestial AI acquisition, and rising share dilution from recent deals. Then we run a reverse discounted cash flow analysis on Marvell at its current price to determine what growth rate is already priced in, and whether the semiconductor cycle and AI infrastructure buildout can realistically support it.

If you're weighing whether Marvell is still a buy after this rally, or looking for better value elsewhere in the semiconductor supply chain, this one's for you.

Semi Insider members get access to our full research platform and tools, plus deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com.

Get 15% off your Fiscal.ai membership with our link: fiscal.ai/csi

Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.CSI doesn't own shares of Marvell.

Memory and optical semiconductor stocks have been the standout trade of 2026, with holdings like Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk up well over 100% year-to-date on tight supply and rising pricing. In this mid-year portfolio review, we break down six months of real performance across our memory holdings (Micron, SK Hynix, SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate, NVE Corp, GSI Technology) and optical networking positions (Lumentum, Coherent, Applied Optoelectronics, Broadcom, Viavi Networks), explain why we're maintaining our allocation despite outsized gains, and walk through the risk management conversation every investor should be having right now.

We also dig into the looming supply-side risk from CXMT's IPO in China, how the "Fab Five" equipment makers (ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, KLA) and Chinese players like ACM Research fit into the memory cycle, and why Lumentum and Coherent remain our top optical picks for the second half of 2026, backed by NVIDIA's direct investment in both companies. This is a research-backed, data-driven portfolio update built for long-term fundamental semiconductor investors — not stock picking hype.

Join Semi Insider for full access to our research platform and tools at https://chipstockinvestor.com. Get 15% off your membership with our data partner Fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/csi.

Content is for general information and entertainment only and is not investment advice. CSI owns shares of the companies discussed.

Rubrik (RBRK) stock is down near $70 after peaking above $89 — but its subscription ARR is still growing over 30%. Here's the reverse DCF and margin math behind why the recovery has stalled.

Rubrik (NYSE: RBRK) is one of the smaller names in the cybersecurity sector, operating in the data storage and backup security niche — a category distinct from network security players like Palo Alto Networks and Fortinet, or endpoint security leaders like CrowdStrike. In this excerpt from our Semiconductor Insider Live session, Nick and Kasey Rossolillo break down why Rubrik has lagged the broader cybersecurity recovery even as subscription ARR growth stays above 30% and reported revenue grows nearly 40% year-over-year.

We dig into the free cash flow story to explain why it has stalled sequentially even as it grows year-over-year. We also explore what that margin compression means for a smaller, AI-infrastructure-dependent company, and how Rubrik's balance sheet ($1.7B cash vs. $1.1B long-term debt) holds up. Finally, we run a reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to see what growth assumptions are baked into the current stock price and discuss how small and mid-cap software stocks fit into a diversified, long-term portfolio strategy.

This is educational content for self-directed investors evaluating semiconductor-adjacent software and cybersecurity plays in 2026.

• Join Semi Insider: Get access to CSI's research platform, tools, and deeper research as it happens at chipstockinvestor.com

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• Related Episode: We called this back in June — Listen/Watch here

If you found this episode useful, please make sure to follow the podcast and leave us a rating! Let us know in the Spotify Q&A below: Do you think Rubrik's margin compression is temporary, or a longer-term concern?

Content in this podcast is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.

CSI owns shares of Rubrik.

The memory chip industry has historically been plagued by vicious boom-and-bust cycles, but Micron is taking aggressive steps to rewrite the rules. In this episode of Chip Stock Investor, we discuss Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs).

We break down the "take-or-pay" contracts, explaining how they protect Micron from the sudden order cancellations and double-booking panics that burned the industry in 2022 and 2023. With competitors like Samsung and SK hynix also completely sold out of capacity, Micron is actively leveraging its position to lock in upfront cash deposits and secure its long-term financial runway.

• The Take-or-Pay Mechanism: How Micron's new agreements force customers to either take delivery of the product or pay a pre-agreed minimum cancellation charge to protect Micron's bottom line.

• A $100 Billion Backlog: Exploring the massive pipeline generated by these SCAs, which are expected to make up about 40% of Micron's total revenue over the next five years.

• Locked-In Terms: A detailed look at the five-year contracts for hyperscalers (running from calendar 2026 through 2030) and three-year contract terms for automotive customers.

• Pricing Safeguards: How these contracts are structured using floor prices, ceiling prices for existing products, and fixed rates to stabilize revenue against market volatility.

• $22 Billion in Upfront Cash: Why tech giants and hyperscalers are depositing billions directly onto Micron's balance sheet to guarantee their spot in line for memory chips.

• The Albemarle Blueprint: What Albemarle's long-term lithium contracts can teach us about how Micron's SCAs might help them weather future oversupply environments and market downcycles.

Resources Mentioned:For a growing library of tools for your analysis of semiconductor companies, visit chipstockinvestor.com. Don't forget to hit follow on Spotify so you never miss an episode!

AppLovin stock posted 59% revenue growth and a 70% free cash flow margin in Q1 2026—numbers that look more like cheat codes than a real business. We break down what makes the Axon 2.0 machine learning ad engine so efficient, why AppLovin can scale without a traditional sales force, and how targeted digital advertising has become the clearest ROI story in AI so far.

We also walk through management's 10-year growth roadmap—from mobile gaming to consumer, e-commerce, and connected TV—and what has to be true for AppLovin to reach $70 billion in annual revenue. Then we run both a five-year and ten-year reverse DCF to show exactly what growth rate is already baked into the current stock price, and whether buying the dip today makes sense for long-term investors. Plus, how they're deploying $1.3 billion in quarterly free cash flow, including nearly $1 billion in share buybacks in Q1 alone.

Want real-time portfolio access and deeper coverage on high-growth software and semiconductor stocks? Join Semi Insider at chipstockinvestor.com.

Run your own AppLovin research with AI-powered financial tools at fiscal.ai/csi — 15% off any paid plan.

Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.CSI owns shares of AppLovin.

In this episode, CSI is cutting through the social media noise to bring you a vintage Chip Stock Investor breakdown of the semiconductor supply chain. Today, we are putting the spotlight on Oxford Instruments, a small-cap UK company that might be a critical bottleneck in the AI data center networking boom.

We explore how the industry is scaling up production for compound semiconductors and specifically look at Coherent's breakthrough with six-inch indium phosphide (InP) wafers. From there, we map out the players making this transition possible and detail why Oxford Instruments' plasma deposition and etch systems are moving out of the R&D lab and onto the commercial manufacturing floor.

Episode Chapters & Key Takeaways:

• The Indium Phosphide Breakthrough: The industry has long been stuck at two- to four-inch wafers due to manufacturing defects, but Coherent has successfully transitioned to six-inch InP wafers.

• Mapping the Supply Chain: A breakdown of the companies involved in this ecosystem, including Sumitomo Electric for substrates, KLA Corp and Onto Innovation for inspection, and Applied Materials for deposition.

• Oxford Instruments' Critical Role: Oxford Instruments supplies the plasma deposition and etch technology used by Coherent to create features like laser sources and waveguides.

• A Shift to Commercial Scale: Historically an R&D business spun out of Oxford University, the company is now seeing its advanced technologies group transition into early-stage commercial production.

• Strategic Divestitures: Oxford Instruments recently sold its quantum computing and cryogenics segment to Quantum Design to focus heavily on AI data centers and compound semiconductors.

• Financials & Valuation: Despite recent headwinds like tariffs and US R&D funding delays, the company holds a clean balance sheet and is expecting a return to growth in fiscal 2027.

Special thanks to our sponsor, fiscal.ai! Get 15% off any paid plan using our special link: fiscal.ai/csi. Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.CSI doesn't own shares of Oxford Instruments.

In this episode of CSI Live, Nick sits down with Simon Erickson from 7investing to unpack the latest breakthroughs in high-tech infrastructure. The conversation kicks off with a look at the massive SpaceX IPO and the ambitious potential for building orbital data centers.

From there, the discussion shifts to the primary focus: the rapidly evolving world of quantum computing. Simon breaks down how quantum mechanics could solve incredibly complex problems simultaneously, highlighting the projected $1.3 trillion to $2.7 trillion in economic value the industry could deliver by 2035.

The episode covers specific pure-play quantum companies, including IonQ's commercial revenue lead and recent SkyWater acquisition, Infleqtion's neutral atom technology, and Quantinuum's full-stack approach under the Honeywell umbrella.

Finally, they detail practical portfolio allocation strategies for early-stage tech and explore the looming national security concerns that could heavily regulate the sector.

Check out Semi Insider at chipstockinvestor.com

Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.CSI owns shares of Honeywell and Quantinuum.

Micron stock gets the full Chip Stock Investor checklist treatment in this Semi Insider Live session. We walk through revenue trends, operating margin, free cash flow, per-share profit growth, and balance sheet strength—then compare Micron's net-cash position to Broadcom's debt-heavy structure to show how to evaluate leverage using debt-to-equity and EBITDA-to-interest coverage ratios.

This is Part 3 of our How CSI Invests series, where we break down the exact quantitative framework we use to vet semiconductor and tech stocks before they earn a spot in our portfolio. We also revisit why "we missed the takeoff" criticism misses the point of disciplined investing—and why Micron's revenue consistency is still an open question over a full cycle.

Want the full investment thesis checklist, real-time portfolio access, and deeper coverage like this? Join Semi Insider at chipstockinvestor.com.

In this episode of Chip Stock Investor, Nick and Kasey analyze NextPower (formerly Nextracker), evaluating its transition from specialized solar tracking to broader power generation and distribution. The discussion breaks down NextPower's recent acquisitions in power converters, battery electric storage systems (BESS), and industrial maintenance robotics.

We also examine the macro environment impacting the solar market, including international competition from Chinese firms like Architec and Trina Solar, as well as domestic policy deadlines approaching on July 4, 2026.

Key Topics Covered:

• Business Evolution: NextPower's growth from a Flex spin-off into an integrated solar technology provider facing patent litigation with GameChange Solar.

• Financial Outlook: An analysis of the fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance of $3.8 billion to $4 billion, and why profitability may see a near-term dip during this investment year.

• Data-Driven Valuation: A walkthrough of NextPower using the Reverse DCF Calculator, demonstrating a discounted fair value of approximately $80, compared to its current trading price near $120.

• Sector Alternatives: Why Amphenol remains our preferred choice for broad exposure to solar tracking hardware, power conversion, and battery assemblies.

New Feature AnnouncementThis episode demonstrates the newly implemented price alert functionality on the Reverse DCF Calculator. Available on the Semi Insider research dashboard, this tool allows you to build a margin of safety and receive automated alerts driven by fundamental data, not chart drawing.

For data-driven research, weekly blog articles, our free weekly newsletter, and full access to the Semi Insider toolset, visit chipstockinvestor.com.

Figma's Q1 2026 revenue grew 46% YoY to $333M, with net dollar retention hitting a multi-year high of 139%. But even after its post-IPO slide, the stock still trades at ~75x next-12-month free cash flow. We break down what's driving the valuation gap, why free cash flow per share is still feeling IPO dilution effects, and what Figma needs to prove on profitability as AI disruption looms over creative software.

Topics covered:

• Why Figma's valuation is still rich despite the stock's decline
• Figma vs. Adobe, Microsoft, Wix, and the private design-tool field
• AI's disruption risk to creative/design software
• Q1 2026 results: $333M revenue, 139% net dollar retention, $89M free cash flow (27% margin)
• Free cash flow per share and the impact of IPO-related dilution
• $1.6B cash, no debt, and why M&A could be on the table
• The $116M RSU tax settlement behind the cash balance dip
• Q2 and full-year 2026 guidance (40% and 35% YoY growth)

This episode is sponsored by fiscal.ai — get 15% off any paid plan at fiscal.ai/csi.

Liked this breakdown? Head to chipstockinvestor.com for our full library of semiconductor and tech stock research, deep dives, and analysis — plus access to Semi Insider, our premium subscription for investors who want the data behind every call we make.

Is memory truly cyclical, or has the AI data center boom changed the rules? In Part 2 of the How CSI Invests series, Nick and Kasey tackle one of the most debated questions among semiconductor investors by walking through the investment thesis checklist step that asks: what kind of business cycle does this company actually have?

Rather than labeling companies simply cyclical or non-cyclical, the framework breaks businesses into short cycle, long cycle, and non-cyclical categories based on how closely revenue tracks changes in GDP growth. A short cycle business sees revenue move quickly with the economy, while a long cycle or non-cyclical business continues growing steadily regardless of macro conditions.

The traditional eleven sectors of the economy do not map cleanly onto this framework, and Nick and Kasey explain why semiconductors, SaaS, telecom carriers, and ad-driven internet platforms can all fall in very different places even within the same official sector.

The episode applies this framework to six real companies. Micron is examined as a short cycle business currently in year two of a strong memory upcycle, with historical precedent for these cycles to run several years. Intuitive Surgical is discussed as a long cycle healthcare hardware business tied to product generation launches. Vertex Pharmaceuticals is presented as a genuinely non-cyclical pharmaceutical company with steady growth. NextEra Energy represents the utilities sector and one of the longest cycles of all. Credo Technologies, a newer public company, is evaluated as likely short cycle, with a look at its fiscal 2027 guidance calling for eighty percent revenue growth and fifty percent adjusted profit margins.

Finally, Palo Alto Networks is broken down as a cyclical business once acquisitions like CyberArk and Chronosphere are stripped out, with commentary on CEO Nikesh Arora's view that cybersecurity is constantly chasing the next emerging risk.

The episode closes with the revenue analysis questions CSI uses for every company: who the primary customers are, whether revenue is concentrated, what is actually being monetized, why customers choose to spend money with that company over alternatives, and what risks could disrupt the business. Understanding these fundamentals is what allows an investor to tune out noisy debates about whether a cycle has "changed forever" and instead build real conviction in a

business.

For in-depth stock research and the Semiconductor Insider membership,visit chipstockinvestor.com.

Flex Ltd., ticker FLEX, surged roughly eighty percent in a single month — and the company hasn't even completed the spinoff that sparked it. Nick and Kasey cover this electronics manufacturing services giant for the first time at Chip Stock Investor, breaking down what drove the run-up, what the proposed spinoff actually is, and whether there is anything left for long-term fundamental investors at today's valuation.

Flex is one of the world's largest electronics manufacturing services companies, competing with Foxconn, Jabil, Celestica, and Sanmina across a global footprint spanning over ninety locations in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. Unlike the perception that contract manufacturing means cheap labor in Asia, Flex's business increasingly runs on automation and robotics — a structural shift that is compressing cost parity across geographies and driving genuine margin improvement. The spinoff is the centerpiece of this episode. Flex is separating its Cloud and Power Infrastructure segment — referred to as SpinCo in the materials — into a standalone company expected to begin trading by the first quarter of calendar year 2027. This segment posted thirty-eight percent year-over-year revenue growth in fiscal year 2026, with guidance pointing to sixty-five to seventy-five percent growth in fiscal 2027 and over eighty percent in fiscal 2028. The business covers critical power products for utility companies, embedded power systems inside data center servers and racks, thermal management solutions that compete in the same market as Vertiv, and cloud power infrastructure for hyperscalers and neo clouds. SpinCo also carries nearly ten percent adjusted operating margins — roughly double the margin profile of the remaining Flex business.

What stays with Flex after the split is the larger but slower-growing core: twenty-one billion in revenue across Regulated Manufacturing Solutions, covering healthcare and automotive, and Integrated Technology Solutions serving customers like Cisco, Juniper Networks, now part of Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and Teradyne. Growth there is expected in the low to mid-single digits. Margins are trending in the right direction, but this is not a high-margin business.

Nick and Kasey also zoom out on the broader industrial conglomerate breakup theme reshaping the market — from GE Vernova to Honeywell — and how Flex's spinoff fits squarely into that playbook. The prior Flex spinoff, NextPower in 2024, has performed very well for shareholders and gives the SpinCo story some historical credibility. The balance sheet is in reasonable shape for a manufacturer, with enough cash on hand to support bolt-on acquisitions as SpinCo looks to consolidate market share.The valuation discussion is honest: at roughly sixty to seventy times current earnings, this is a momentum trade. The forward picture for fiscal 2028 could look closer to thirty times earnings if growth delivers, but the stock is not cheap by traditional measures.For in-depth stock research and the Semiconductor Insider membership, visit chipstockinvestor.com. Use fiscal.ai/csi for 15% off any paid plan.

Optical networking has spent years as a niche corner of the semiconductor industry. CSI makes the case that the moment for companies like Coherent may have finally arrived — and NVIDIA's two-billion-dollar equity investment in the company suggests the largest chipmaker in the world agrees.

Coherent (COHR), is an integrated device manufacturer and base materials supplier specializing in indium phosphide and silicon carbide wafers. Under CEO Jim Anderson, who pulled off a similar business transformation at Lattice Semiconductor, Coherent has been shedding non-core assets and sharpening its focus on data center and communications, which now represents seventy-five percent of revenue and posted forty-one percent year-over-year growth in the most recent quarter. Pro forma revenue growth came in at twenty-seven percent, with gross margins approaching the forty percent threshold that marks a key milestone for IDM-class businesses.

The divestitures tell the story of the transformation: a four-hundred-million-dollar sale of the aerospace and defense laser business to private equity, and a fifty-one-million-dollar exit from a materials processing tools segment that was diluting margins. What remains is a tighter, faster-growing business positioned at the intersection of AI data center infrastructure, optical connectivity, and advanced materials.

The NVIDIA investment is the centerpiece of this episode. With free cash flow running deeply negative as Coherent scales manufacturing capacity for co-packaged optics and near-package optics expected in the second half of 2026, the company needed capital. NVIDIA needed the optical components. The result was a cash-for-equity arrangement that Nick describes as a more direct version of the warrant-based incentive deals seen at companies like AMD and STMicro, cheaper than diluting shareholders, and cheaper than going to a bank.

The silicon carbide segment also draws attention, with five-hundred-million-dollar anchor investments from Denso and Mitsubishi Electric secured when silicon carbide was out of favor, now pointing toward three-hundred-millimeter wafer applications for AI data centers and power grid infrastructure.

Q3 guidance calls for revenue between 1.9 and just over 2 billion, gross margin at roughly 41%, and continued negative free cash flow as manufacturing scale-up accelerates. CSI compares Coherent to peer Lumentum — framing COHR as the value play and Lumentum as the momentum play — and confirm they are happy holding both.

For in-depth stock research and the Semiconductor Insider membership,visit chipstockinvestor.com. Use fiscal.ai/csi for 15% off any paid plan.

Broadcom just delivered another strong earnings report for Q2 fiscal 2026, and the stock fell more than ten percent. CSI breaks down exactly why that happened, what it means for long-term holders, and whether anything has actually changed in the fundamental thesis for one of the most important companies in AI infrastructure.

Broadcom has compounded its enterprise value at over fifty percent annually for five years. AI semiconductors now represent roughly three-quarters of the semiconductor solutions segment, which itself makes up the majority of nearly forty-eight billion in trailing twelve-month revenue. Free cash flow hit a record dollar amount this quarter at a forty-six percent margin, still climbing toward its near-fifty percent record high.

So why did the stock sell off? The short answer is that Wall Street wanted a raise in 2027 guidance, specifically whether Broadcom's forecast of over one hundred billion in AI semiconductor revenue for fiscal 2027 would be revised higher toward two hundred billion. CEO Hock Tan declined to update that number, and without a concrete revision, earnings expectations stayed flat.

Infrastructure software, the VMware segment, is now a cash cow with sub-ten percent growth. The growth engine going forward is AI semiconductors and networking. Chip Stock Investor's position is unchanged, continuing to hold Broadcom as a core AI data center infrastructure name.

For in-depth stock research and the Semiconductor Insider membership, visit chipstockinvestor.com. Use fiscal.ai/csi for 15% off any paid plan.

Ouster ($OUST) just reported $49M in Q1 2026 revenue — up 49% year-over-year — and crossed the 40% gross margin threshold as it shifts toward a fabless model. But the bigger story is product: the new REV8 LiDAR family and L4 Max chip now integrate native color sensing directly into the sensor, developed in partnership with Fujifilm.

In this episode, Nick breaks down what that means for physical AI — autonomous vehicles, robotics, and industrial automation — where today's systems rely on costly, complex sensor fusion setups combining LiDAR with CMOS image sensors. Color LiDAR could simplify that stack significantly.

We also cover Q2 2026 guidance, the path toward breakeven, and why OUST remains a small bet in the Semi Insider portfolio — not a full position. This is still a prove-it story: the company operates at a loss and continues issuing shares to fund operations.

Topics covered:

• REV8 family and L4 Max chip breakdown
• How color LiDAR changes the physical AI sensor stack
• Why OUST is sized as a small bet and what would change that
• Q2 2026 guidance and the road to profitability

For deeper research and portfolio updates, visit us at chipstockinvestor.com.

Chip Stock Investor covers semiconductor stocks and the chips powering AI, autonomy, and the physical world. Subscribe for weekly analysis and research updates.

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

While the market chased AI names, communications software stocks like Twilio (TWLO) and Bandwidth (BAND) quietly re-accelerated. Here's what the financials actually show — and whether these forgotten names deserve a spot in your portfolio.

CSI breaks down two API-layer software companies left for dead after the pandemic era that are now showing signs of fundamental re-acceleration. We analyze quarterly revenue trends, operating profit trajectory, and free cash flow for both — including the key distinction between Twilio's headline revenue and organic revenue (stripping out carrier pass-through fees).

We also cover Bandwidth's emerging relationship with Salesforce as a voice-powered AI agent infrastructure provider, and what that means for future revenue growth.

Plus, we address the macro question investors are asking: if enterprises pull back on AI token spending, does that actually send them back to SaaS vendors? We break down both sides of that thesis.

This is a fundamentals-first look at an under-covered corner of the software market — no hype, just the numbers.

🔒 This episode features an excerpt from one of our CSI Live sessions — exclusive to Semi Insider members. Join to access our full library of live analysis, deep dives, and member Q&As:https://chipstockinvestor.com

📺 Watch the related YouTube video — we called this back in April:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHcvCip1-tQ

Content is for general informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute specific investment advice. All investing involves risk. Nick and Kasey do not own shares of Twilio or Bandwidth.

Are the Fab 5 wafer fab equipment companies — ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and KLA Corp — still worth buying at today's valuations? CSI breaks down 20 years of revenue data across the five companies that control roughly 70% of annual global fab equipment spending, and explain why 2026 and 2027 are shaping up to be record revenue years — with a potential speed bump in 2028 worth watching.

The conversation also covers the wave of creative M&A reshaping the equipment landscape: the Axcelis and Veeco merger nearing final approval,

Onto Innovation's strategic equity stake in X-ray imaging firm Rigaku, and Applied Materials' targeted acquisition of an advanced packaging segment from ASMPT.

But the most overlooked part of this episode is the introduction of the Lab 7 — a group of life science and laboratory capital equipment companies, including Thermo Fisher, Agilent, Bruker, and Revvity, that share surprising structural overlap with semiconductor supply chain investing.

CSI explains why these companies could serve as a diversification play for semiconductor-heavy portfolios, and why the two industries may begin to converge.

If you're wondering how to stay invested in the semiconductor supply chain without overconcentrating in a handful of names, this episode gives you a research-backed framework for thinking about it.

Topics covered:

- Fab 5 revenue breakdown and 20-year performance

- Is wafer fab equipment overpriced in 2026?

- Axcelis + Veeco merger update

- Onto Innovation & Rigaku X-ray partnership

- Applied Materials acquires ASMPT packaging segment

- Introducing the Lab 7: life science meets semiconductor

- Portfolio diversification beyond the semiconductor supply chain

- Semiconductor market cycle outlook through 2028 and beyond

For in-depth stock research and the Semiconductor Insider membership, visit chipstockinvestor.com. Use fiscal.ai/csi for 15% off any paid plan.

Amphenol (APH) just reported Q1 2026 earnings and the stock sold off — but the revenue numbers tell a different story. In this episode, Kasey and Nick break down every segment of Amphenol's business and ask whether this "boring" semiconductor supply chain stock is one of the better values in AI infrastructure right now.

Amphenol is one of the world's largest manufacturers of electrical connectors, cables, antennas, and sensors. It operates across 350 facilities worldwide and sits at the intersection of AI data centers, aerospace and defense, automotive, industrial automation, and satellite communications. It doesn't make a flashy end product — but nearly every major AI infrastructure build runs through Amphenol components.

In this episode we cover:

— IT DataCom: now 41% of Amphenol's total revenue and nearly doubling year over year as AI data center demand drives cable and connector spending— Industrial: 20% of revenue, up 16% organically, led by building connectivity and automation sensors— Communications networks: 91% as-reported growth boosted by the CommScope acquisition, but flat organically — broadband infrastructure spending has softened— Defense: up 44% year over year, with high single digit growth expected to continue— Automotive: soft in Asia, down 7% sequentially, modest recovery expected in Q2— Commercial air and mobile devices: small segments, largely holding steady

We also dig into why earnings per share is growing slightly slower than revenue despite strong AI data center demand — and the answer comes down to the CommScope acquisition. CommScope's margins are lower than Amphenol's existing business, integration takes time, and the long-term debt load is now visible on the balance sheet. None of this is unusual for a major acquisition, but it explains the market's reaction.

We close with a reverse DCF scenario using a five-year average growth rate of 22% and a 4% terminal growth rate — and discuss what that implies about fair value for APH stock as of May 2026.

If you're researching semiconductor stocks, AI infrastructure investing, or picks-and-shovels plays in the data center buildout, this is an episode worth your time.

More research and stock tools at chipstockinvestor.com — and join Semi Insider for deeper analysis.

Nvidia just reported Q1 fiscal year 2027. The numbers are extraordinary even by Nvidia's own standards. Free cash flow of $49 billion. A nearly 60% free cash flow margin. Revenue guidance implying over $300 billion for calendar year 2026, with some estimates suggesting $400 billion is possible. Next quarter alone: $91 billion in guided revenue. Vera Rubin is beginning to ship and is expected to generate $20 billion in its first six months.

And then Jensen Huang said something on the earnings call that almost nobody covered.

Nvidia plans to become the world's largest CPU supplier in 2026.

That single claim has profound implications — for Intel, for AMD, for every investor tracking the CPU market, and for the semiconductor supply chain at large. CSI called this out as a remote possibility during their CPU market share update just weeks earlier. Now it is a public commitment from Jensen Huang himself.

CSI works through the full picture in this episode. They cover Nvidia's new revenue reporting framework — the shift from a single data center segment to two sub-markets. Hyperscale covers the five major cloud providers: Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle. ACIE covers AI clouds, industrial, enterprise, and sovereign data centers. This segmentation matters enormously because 80% of global IT spending is still on legacy systems. The enterprise migration to AI infrastructure is just beginning to happen at scale, and for the first time investors have direct visibility into it through Nvidia's own reporting.

They also run the reverse DCF at $223 per share. The result: 20% free cash flow per share growth over five years at a 6% terminal rate gets you to today's price. That is not historically cheap for Nvidia. But it is the lowest bar the company has had to clear in years — and given that EPS grew 214% and FCF per share grew 88% in Q1 alone, clearing that bar looks more feasible than it sounds.

CSI's updated position: Nvidia remains their largest personal holding. The updated baseline assumption is 50% stock price growth for 2026, revised upward from 40%. Not a prediction. A framework for thinking about what the business needs to deliver to justify current prices.

What we cover:

— Nvidia Q1 FY2027: $49B FCF, 60% FCF margin, EPS +214% YoY

— Revenue outlook: $300B+ in 2026, $91B guided next quarter

— Vera Rubin: $20B in sales expected in first six months

— New reporting framework: hyperscale vs. ACIE and why it matters

— The enterprise migration — 80% of global IT still on legacy systems

— Jensen's CPU claim: Nvidia to be world's largest CPU supplier in 2026

— Reverse DCF at $223: 20% FCF/share growth, 6% terminal rate

— Why Nvidia has looked "boring" while small caps ran hundreds of percent

— Updated CSI baseline: 50% stock price target revised upward

Semi Insider members get access to CSI's full DCF and reverse DCF tools, live Q&A sessions, and analysis like this as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com

Disclosure: Nick and Kasey have a position in Nvidia. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

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On the Q1 2026 earnings call for TransMedics, the CEO said something that stopped everyone in their tracks. Major transplant programs, he said, are going to Home Depot and buying YETI coolers to preserve human hearts before transplantation. None of those coolers are FDA-approved. None are validated for that purpose. That is the status quo TransMedics is trying to replace.

This is CSI's update on TransMedics following their May 5th earnings report. TransMedics is not a semiconductor company — it sits in CSI's small bets basket, a collection of positions outside the core semiconductor thesis that Kasey follows closely. The company is building what it describes as the premier program for organ transplantation, combining a warm perfusion technology called the Organ Care System with its own aviation logistics network to dramatically improve the odds that a donated organ reaches its recipient in viable condition.

The Q1 2026 numbers are solid. Revenue of $174 million, up 21% year over year, with 82% of organ transplants now covered by TransMedics' own logistics service. But the more interesting story is what comes next across four distinct growth catalysts.

First, the CHOPS system — a new cold preservation device TransMedics just developed to serve the segment of the heart transplant market where cold storage is sufficient and warm perfusion is not required. Of 4,646 hearts transplanted in 2025, roughly 2,100 were preserved for less than four hours. That entire segment is currently going to Home Depot coolers. CHOPS is also the control arm TransMedics needed to run the ENHANCE Heart clinical trials — a clever solution to the problem of not being able to find a competitor willing to run head-to-head against their warm perfusion system.

Second, European expansion — a logistics partnership with PAD Aviation in Germany and new infrastructure in Italy that could eventually double the total addressable market.

Third, the kidney opportunity. Over 20,000 deceased kidney transplants happen annually in the United States. Between 8,000 and 9,000 kidneys are discarded every year due to prolonged ischemic times. TransMedics has designed a Gen 3.0 OCS platform for kidney transplantation, targeting 2027 for market entry.

Fourth, the Gen 3.0 platform upgrade for liver, heart, and lung — parallel development tracks that modernize the core product across every organ.

Kasey closes with something genuinely useful: an honest accounting of what could go right and what could go wrong, and why she continues to hold a small position.

This episode was released to Semi Insider members several weeks before this public version. Members get Kasey and Nick's full research, live Q&A sessions, and analysis like this as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com/membership

What we cover:

— The CHOPS cold preservation system and why it exists

— ENHANCE Heart trial — Part A and Part B explained

— Will CHOPS cannibalize OCS warm perfusion revenue? The CEO's answer

— Heart transplant market data — 2,131 hearts going to cold storage annually

— European expansion — PAD Aviation and Italy buildout

— The kidney opportunity — 20,000+ transplants, 8,000–9,000 discarded

— OCS Gen 3.0 — kidney platform targeting 2027

— Q1 2026 financials — $174M revenue, balance sheet, Summit Aviation debt

— What could go right and what could go wrong for TMDX

— CSI's current position and ongoing conviction

Disclosure: Kasey and Nick hold a position in TransMedics. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

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Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta just collectively committed to over $750 billion in capital expenditure for 2026. They spent $130 billion in a single quarter. That is a 70% increase from what these companies spent in 2025 — and the spending is still accelerating into the second half of the year.

The ROI is showing up. Operating margins are expanding across all four businesses. Google Cloud grew 63% year over year. AWS grew 28%. Microsoft Intelligent Cloud grew 29%. Meta grew revenue 33%. This is not speculative infrastructure spending anymore. These are some of the most profitable businesses ever built, getting more profitable.

But the more important conversation is about what this means for everyone else.

CSI has a framework for understanding how AI infrastructure investment actually flows — and it is the most useful mental model for investors trying to figure out where value accrues in the AI buildout. The hyperscalers eat first. They buy the technology and deploy it internally before any customer touches it. Their strategic investment partners eat second — OpenAI, Anthropic, and others who receive capital and get early infrastructure access. Enterprise software companies and Neo Cloud providers eat third. They get the leftovers, and right now they are scrambling.

This creates two distinct problems. Neo Cloud companies have great infrastructure but no vertical integration — no final product of their own. The moment spare capacity appears in the market, their economics break down rapidly. Enterprise SaaS companies have great products but no infrastructure control — they get stuck waiting for technology that the hyperscalers have already been using internally for years.

CSI lays out what both camps need to do to survive the next phase: Neo Clouds need to start developing software and services of their own before excess capacity forces their hand. Enterprise software companies need to start acquiring infrastructure assets — and there are already early signals that the smarter ones are doing exactly that.

This episode was released to Semi Insider members several weeks before this public version. Members receive CSI's full research, live Q&A sessions, and analysis like this as it happens — not weeks later. If that matters to you, the membership page is at chipstockinvestor.com

What we cover:

— Why hyperscaler earnings reactions are about cashflow expectations not beats or misses

— $750B+ in 2026 AI CapEx — full breakdown across Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta

— Amazon Q1 2026: AWS +28% YoY, operating margin expanding to 13.1%

— Microsoft Q1 2026: Intelligent Cloud +29% YoY, 46.3% operating margin

— Alphabet Q1 2026: Google Cloud +63% YoY, 36.1% operating margin

— Meta Q1 2026: +33% revenue, CapEx raised to $245B, why the stock reaction was muted

— The ROI is real — operating leverage across all four hyperscalers

— The "who eats first" hierarchy — the most useful AI investing framework right now

— Neo Cloud companies — the vertical integration problem and what needs to change

— Enterprise SaaS — why they are chasing the puck and what the smart ones are doing

— Early signals: Salesforce, Snowflake, Fortinet, Trade Desk CapEx moves

Disclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in several companies mentioned. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

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In 2000, venture capitalists funded 200 semiconductor companies. By 2015, that number had fallen to single digits. The cost of designing a chip went from $33 million in the late 1990s to over $200 million today, and it takes four or more years to complete. There are not enough engineers. The timelines are too long. The investment risk is too high.

Faraj Aalaei has spent three decades watching this problem build. He co-founded Centillium Communications and took it public on Nasdaq in 1997. He co-founded Aquantia, took it public in 2017, and sold it to Marvell Semiconductors in 2019. He then spent several years investing in AI companies before recognizing that generative AI could do for chip design what it has done for software — compress timelines, reduce cost, and open the field to a much wider group of contributors.

In 2024, he founded Cognichip with a straightforward but ambitious vision: everybody should be able to be a chip designer.

Nick sits down with Faraj for a wide-ranging conversation that covers the full landscape — why the semiconductor industry has a structural problem that EDA companies like Synopsys and Cadence cannot solve alone, why generic large language models fall flat when applied to chip design, how Cognichip trains physics-informed models on proprietary synthetic data without touching any customer IP, and what actually happens to the semiconductor industry when design timelines collapse from years to months.

The implications are significant. Hyperscalers like Google, Meta, and Microsoft could design more bespoke ASICs faster and cheaper. Foundries like TSMC would see shorter cycles between customer signup and first wafer revenue. Startups that today cannot raise funding because the design cost is too high would suddenly become investable. And companies like Nvidia — which already iterate faster than anyone in the industry — could move faster still.

The conversation also covers Cognichip's differentiation from agentic workflow competitors, the fundamental reason why physics-informed models are necessary for semiconductor design in a way they are not for software, and — at the very end — the IPO question.

What we cover:

— Why chip design went from $33M to $200M+ and VC funding collapsed

— The engineer shortage and why semiconductors lose to software for talent

— Why the 6-year chip design lag is a fundamental problem for AI progress

— EDA companies and AI — complementary rather than competitive

— How Cognichip trains models without using customer IP

— Physics-informed AI vs. generic LLMs — why the distinction matters

— The vision: anyone can design a chip — what that actually means

— What happens when design timelines collapse — impact on Nvidia, startups, foundries

— Cognichip vs. agentic workflow competitors — the fundamental model difference

— Hyperscaler ASIC strategies and CapEx implications

— Manufacturing yield improvement and AI's role

— The IPO question

Disclosure: Cognichip is a private company and is not publicly investable at this time. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice.

chipstockinvestor.com

Over a year ago, CSI did a three-part deep dive on co-packaged optics after Nvidia dedicated an entire segment of its GTC keynote to the technology — naming Lumentum and Coherent as the primary beneficiaries. The analysis was right. They did not buy.

That mistake is now worth talking about directly.

Lumentum just reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue up 90% year over year. Q4 guidance implies triple-digit year-over-year growth. Nvidia made a $2 billion investment in both Lumentum and Coherent, and separately announced a major fiber optic cable manufacturing expansion with Corning. Co-packaged optics products have not even begun shipping in volume yet — that catalyst hits in December 2026. The case for Lumentum continues to build.

But this is CSI, and true conviction in a business means covering what could go wrong as well as what is going right. There is a significant dilution story unfolding that every Lumentum shareholder needs to understand before adding to a position.

When the stock was trading at roughly one-tenth of its current price, Lumentum raised cash by issuing convertible notes — a type of debt that converts to equity when the stock reaches certain price milestones. The stock has now blown through those milestones. All of that convertible debt is now eligible to convert into stock at terms that are extremely favorable for the debt holders and extremely expensive for existing shareholders. The result: shares outstanding are expected to increase by approximately 20% over the next two quarters. Nick and Kasey explain the full mechanics clearly — why it happened, what it costs, and whether the revenue acceleration can outrun the dilution.

Also covered: the Qorvo fab acquisition in North Carolina that adds indium phosphide manufacturing capacity in two to three years, and what operating leverage looks like when a company goes from negative margins to all-time highs in the span of a few quarters.

What we cover:

— Why CSI did the deep dive on co-packaged optics and still did not buy — the honest lesson

— Lumentum fiscal Q3 2026: 90% revenue growth — what drove it and what comes next

— Q4 guidance: triple-digit YoY growth before CPO products even ramp

— Nvidia's $2B investment in Lumentum and Coherent — the supply chain signal

— Nvidia and Corning fiber optic expansion — Nvidia's hands all over the supply chain

— Co-packaged optics — the December 2026 catalyst that has not landed yet

— Operating leverage in action: from negative margins to all-time highs

— Convertible notes explained: why ~20% share dilution is coming in 2026

— Qorvo North Carolina fab acquisition — InP capacity coming in two to three years

— The bottleneck in laser module manufacturing and why Lumentum dominates it

Sponsored by fiscal.ai — 25% off any paid plan through May 14 only. Use our link: fiscal.ai/csi

Disclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in Lumentum and Coherent. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

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Intel stock is up big over the last year. On the stock price, CSI was wrong — and they are saying so directly.

On the business analysis, they are standing firm.

AMD is steadily taking data center CPU market share from Intel. The driver is availability — both companies rely on TSMC for their most advanced chiplets, but AMD has used that availability more effectively in a CPU shortage environment where demand is outpacing supply. After AMD's most recent earnings, the trajectory is clear: if things continue, AMD could pass Intel in data center and AI revenue as early as late 2026 or sometime in 2027.

Intel's client segment — the portion of the business keeping the lights on — continues to face market share pressure from AMD. The turnaround story is real and the early innings are genuinely encouraging. But Intel at 104x forward earnings needs everything to go right, and a lot still needs to go right. AMD at 48x, with cleaner data center momentum and a more consistent growth trajectory, remains the cleaner pick — even after being wrong on Intel's stock price.

This episode also covers two important supporting stories. Lattice Semiconductor is quietly back — up 42% in its most recent quarter, with record revenues possible as early as Q2 2026, and an AMI software acquisition adding roughly $1 billion in annualized revenue by year end. And AMD's embedded FPGA segment, inherited from the Xilinx acquisition, remains a highly profitable cushion even through its current growth trough.

The close leaves listeners with one more thing to watch: the Vera CPU, coming later in 2026.

What we cover:

— Why CSI was wrong on Intel's stock price — and why the business analysis still holds

— AMD vs. Intel data center CPU market share — the trajectory and what drives it

— The CPU shortage and AMD's TSMC availability advantage

— Intel client segment — profitable, but losing ground quarter by quarter

— Intel at 104x forward P/E vs. AMD at 48x — what each multiple actually implies

— Lattice Semiconductor: +42% quarterly, record revenues in sight for Q2 2026

— Lattice AMI acquisition — $1B annualized revenue run rate by year end

— AMD Embedded (Xilinx): profitable through the trough, modest growth returning

— Intel Altera FPGA — now 51% private equity, no longer in the income statement

— The Vera CPU — a teaser worth watching as 2026 develops

Sponsored by fiscal.ai — 25% off any paid plan through May 14 only. Use our link: fiscal.ai/csi

Disclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in AMD. They do not currently hold Intel. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

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Almost nothing in semiconductor land is cheap right now. First Solar might be the exception — and that is worth paying attention to, even if you have never thought of a solar panel manufacturer as a chip stock.

First Solar trades at 12.7x forward earnings and 12.7x forward free cash flow. It carries over $2.4 billion in cash with almost no debt. It just reported record Q1 2026 revenue of just over $1 billion, up 24% year over year, with expanding profit margins. It manufactures domestically in five US facilities — a sixth is under construction in South Carolina. It benefits from Inflation Reduction Act tax credits through 2029. And it has just launched a new manufacturing process called CuRe — copper replacement — that increases panel lifetime energy yield by up to 8% and extends panel lifespan.

Everything checks out. Until you look at the guidance and the backlog.

Full year 2026 revenue is expected to come in flat to slightly down versus 2025. The order backlog, which peaked above 70 gigawatts in 2023, has now declined to under 48 gigawatts. First Solar is working through existing orders faster than it is winning new ones. A sizable cancellation from customer LightSource BP in 2024 and 2025 accelerated that decline. These are the hallmarks of a value trap — a stock that looks cheap because the future earning power is genuinely uncertain, not because the market has mispriced it.

The potential inflection point is a pending Section 232 investigation into whether crystalline silicon solar panel imports — primarily from China, where state-subsidized price dumping has been a recurring competitive tactic — constitute a national security risk. If the ruling lands in Q2 2026 and tariff protections follow, First Solar's order book could refill rapidly. If it does not, the backlog decline continues and the cheap valuation has every reason to stay cheap.

CSI walks through the full picture: the thin-film cadmium telluride technology edge, the CuRe manufacturing upgrade, the domestic supply chain advantage, the backlog reality, and a reverse DCF that shows the bar First Solar needs to clear is genuinely low — only 7% annual profit growth over five years with a 0% terminal rate gets you to today's price. The conclusion is honest: mildly interested, but the hallmarks of a value trap are present. Patience is the strategy.

What we cover:

— Why a solar company qualifies as a chip stock — and where First Solar fits in the supply chain

— First Solar Q1 2026: $1B+ revenue, record margins, $2.4B cash, minimal debt

— Thin-film cadmium telluride vs. crystalline silicon — the technology difference that matters

— The CURE manufacturing process: launching now in Ohio, targeted across all facilities

— Domestic US manufacturing as a competitive and geopolitical advantage

— The guidance problem: flat to down revenue in 2026

— The backlog decline: from 70GW in 2023 to under 48GW and still falling

— Section 232 tariff investigation — the binary catalyst expected Q2 2026

— Reverse DCF: 12.7x earnings, 7% growth, 0% terminal rate

— CSI verdict: mildly interested, but patient — the value trap signs are real

Disclosure: Nick and Kasey do not currently hold First Solar. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

chipstockinvestor.com