Everyone Waiting For A Bitcoin Dip Is About To Get Left Behind | James Check
Saison 1 · Épisode 100
jeudi 1 octobre 2026 • Durée 01:04:28
Mentor Sessions Episode 100: James Check breaks down Bitcoin market cycles, on-chain data, the bull market transition, and his end-of-year $100K price target for 2026
Bitcoin just flipped from bear to bull and the on-chain data proves it: more than half of all invested wealth is now in profit, up from just 8% at the $58K lows. James Check returns to break down exactly what changed and where the cycle goes next.
You'll learn why James called the bottom back in July and what the run from the low $60s to $86K revealed on-chain. You'll see his four-phase market cycle model, how short-term and long-term holder cost basis acts as resistance, and why 90% of ETF buyers were underwater before $8 billion in outflows hit the bottom. You'll also hear his honest end-of-year outlook, his left/mid/right curve scenarios, and why he believes dips will most likely be bought from here.
This is a measured, data-first conversation for anyone navigating the transition out of a bear market without getting chopped up.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:42 - Confirming the Bull Market
1:24 - On-Chain Data Reveals Human Emotion
1:36 - Price Pain Versus Time Pain Capitulation
2:13 - Macro Trends Begin on One-Second Charts
3:13 - Two Legs Up and Short Squeezes
4:27 - Wealth in Profit Jumps From 8% to 55%
5:27 - Bear Market PTSD and Transition
6:25 - Will Old Buyers Sell at Break-Even?
7:22 - Who Bought Bitcoin at $64K?
8:04 - Four Seasons of Holder Behavior
9:39 - Volume Rising Across Exchanges
10:24 - Anything Missed in the Bear Market?
11:42 - ETFs Bought Tops and Sold Bottoms
13:07 - How 20% of Coins Drive 55% Drawdowns
15:11 - What a True Catastrophic Event Looks Like
15:48 - $100K Resistance and Silent IPO
18:09 - Why the Next All-Time High Feels Special
19:46 - Low-Fee ETF Flows Gaining Traction
21:19 - Why Companies Avoid Bitcoin on Balance Sheets
23:01 - Housing Markets Push Rotation Into Bitcoin
24:00 - Bitcoin Is Not Set and Forget
28:18 - Personal Signals Confirming the Bottom
30:40 - Testing Fear Versus Greed Titles
31:04 - Why Brains Are Wired to Lose Money
32:57 - Is the DCA Strategy Still Active?
33:46 - Maxing Purchases at $60K
40:40 - Bull Market Lines of Defense
44:34 - Tracking the Hot Ball of Money
53:47 - AI CapEx Compared to Bitcoin Mining
59:48 - End-of-Year Price Targets Left Mid Right
1:02:47 - Disbelief Rally Remains Alive and Well
🔗 Links & Resources:
→ James Check's newsletter & Checkonchain charts: https://checkonchain.com
"If Our Entire Economy Depends On Data Centers, We Are F*cked" | Dave Collum
Saison 1 · Épisode 99
mardi 29 septembre 2026 • Durée 02:46:22
Mentor Sessions Ep 099: Dave Collum on the AI bubble bursting, the bond market at 6%, boomer asset liquidation, and why gold and Bitcoin win as valuations regress.
The AI bubble has the life expectancy of a soufflé, the 30-year Treasury is being drawn to 6% like a magnet, and Dave Collum thinks the whole thing reprices within a year. This is the macro conversation most people are too polite to have.
In this episode, chemistry professor and macro commentator Dave Collum breaks down why the decades-long credit cycle is over, why the inverse correlation between gold and interest rates is about to break, and why boomer asset liquidation guarantees a repricing no dip-buyer can stop. You'll learn why he calls Jensen Huang's share buybacks a bell-ringing top, why he puts the AI capex build-out on a one-year clock, and why he thinks a rare double bear market in bonds AND equities is teeing up — the setup where 60/40 offers no protection. You'll also hear his contrarian take that AI will make the world worse without destroying civilization, plus his read on Warsh, the Fed, and why gold and Bitcoiners could be the ones left standing.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:50 - Gold Silver Recent Price Action
1:27 - End of the Long Credit Cycle
1:49 - Central Bankers Driving Rates to Zero
4:50 - Treasury Rates Pulled Toward Six Percent
6:32 - Seven Percent Mortgages Housing Trap
9:46 - Kevin Warsh Rate Hikes and Collapse
11:55 - Economy Needs Real Assets Not Data Centers
12:48 - Jensen Huang Nvidia Buyback Signal
14:17 - AI Threat to Civilization Examined
Somebody Has To Eat The 40 Trillion Dollar Loss | Jack Mallers
Saison 1 · Épisode 98
jeudi 24 septembre 2026 • Durée 01:21:23
Mentor Sessions Ep 098: Jack Mallers explains monetizing chaos, dollar debasement, the ColdCard incident, El Salvador and why Bitcoin is the most American technology.
Jack Mallers argues the entire fiat system forces everyone into speculation whether they know it or not — and Bitcoin is how you take the other side of the chaos. In a wide-ranging sit-down, the Strike CEO breaks down monetizing chaos, the $40 trillion debt bill nobody wants to foot, and why he's never been more bullish.
You'll hear why Jack calls debt a form of "time travel" that already spent your future, how the dollar's world-reserve status structurally forces deficits, and why a severe debasement against gold and Bitcoin may be the only mathematical exit for the US balance sheet. You'll get his blunt read on the ColdCard incident and why "open source doesn't mean secure" in the age of AI — the most incentivized person to understand that code base was the attacker. You'll also learn why he thinks 2026 was never a real bull run, why prediction markets are just regulatory arbitrage on sports betting, and what El Salvador got right (and wrong) five years in.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:48 - Why Jack Is Bullish on Bitcoin
1:47 - Monetizing Chaos by Shorting Fiat
2:04 - Debt as Time Travel and Future Bills
4:43 - Why Public Adoption of Bitcoin Lags
5:17 - Strike Growing Despite Bear Market
6:21 - Why 2026 Was Not a Real Bull Run
7:52 - Why Younger Generations Resist Bitcoin
8:44 - Bitcoin as a Massive Wealth Transfer
11:26 - Savings Culture Versus Gambling Culture
13:07 - Gambling Ads, OnlyFans, and Robot Jobs
"Four Horsemen Of The Diesel Apocalypse" Are Coming For Europe | Doomberg & Lavish
Saison 1 · Épisode 97
mardi 22 septembre 2026 • Durée 01:07:26
Mentor Sessions Ep 097: James Lavish and Doomberg break down the 2026 bond market crisis, Europe's diesel shortage, private credit risk, and Bitcoin as a macro asset.
Bond yields near 20-year highs, Europe staring down a diesel shortage, and private credit quietly marking its own books — the plumbing of the global financial system is under real strain, and this conversation maps exactly where the pressure is building.
James Lavish and Doomberg join BTC Sessions to connect the dots between the bond market, energy, geopolitics, and Bitcoin. You'll learn why the 10-year yield sitting at ~5% signals a structural regime change rather than a passing inflation scare, how private equity and insurance companies are stuffed with self-marked paper that echoes 2007-2008, and why Doomberg calls Europe's diesel situation the "Four Horsemen of the Diesel Apocalypse." You'll see the case that energy — not currency — is the base layer of every market, why nations are now selling Treasuries to buy fuel, and where Bitcoin fits as the "hot ball of money" hunting for the next asymmetric bet. Both guests also share the disciplined, rules-based approach they use to allocate across gold, cash, and Bitcoin without trying to time the market.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:43 - Bond yields near 20-year highs and global yield melt-up
0:57 - Why the 10-year at 5% is a new regime, not a blip
3:28 - The death of the 60/40 portfolio
5:38 - Doomberg on Grant Williams, Luke Gromen and fiscal dominance
9:03 - Hyperscaler debt crowding out long-dated paper
10:16 - Echoes of 2007-2008 in private equity and insurance
12:19 - The Treasury default nobody will call a default
16:38 - How private credit marks its own book
Big Tech Gets AI. BlackRock Gets Bitcoin. You Get Prosecuted | Zack Shapiro
Saison 96 · Épisode 1
jeudi 17 septembre 2026 • Durée 57:08
Mentor Sessions Ep 096: Zack Shapiro explains AI existential risk, AI regulation, the Clarity Act, Samurai Wallet, and open source AI policy for Bitcoin.
The Clarity Act just failed on the Senate floor, and the fight over whether writing Bitcoin code can be treated as a crime is now heading to 70-year-old federal judges. Zack Shapiro breaks down what that means for self-custody, open source software, and the Samurai Wallet developers still behind bars.
In this conversation you'll learn why Zack separates AI existential risk (recursive self-improvement, the orthogonality thesis, instrumental convergence) from the ordinary risks of AI — job displacement, regulatory capture by frontier labs, and cyber attacks like the Cold Card hack. You'll see why he thinks open source AI is not the existential threat, why the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) matters more than most Bitcoiners realize, and how the 'two clocks' of AI capability vs enterprise adoption will define the next decade. You'll also get the legal reality behind white hat recovery of hacked Bitcoin, why the liquid hacker is in a bad spot, and what happened when the Clarity Act died on the vine.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:51 - Amodei, Musk and Altman urge AI slowdown
1:38 - Ordinary risks versus existential AI threats
2:26 - Politics warping the AI safety debate
3:20 - Bostrom, AGI and intelligence explosion risks
5:01 - Orthogonality thesis and instrumental convergence
5:59 - Hugging Face attack shows AI covering tracks
6:58 - No easy policy fixes for AI risks
8:08 - Can't stop AI progress or open source China
9:32 - Separating x-risk concerns from anti-AI populism
They Bet Everything On An Existential Crisis | Bob Burnett & Nacho Pauls
Saison 1 · Épisode 95
jeudi 10 septembre 2026 • Durée 52:37
Mentor Sessions Ep 095: Bob Burnett and Nacho Pauls of Ocean discuss Bitcoin mining decentralization, the BIP-110 chain split, hash rate flight, and Bitcoin Knots.
Bitcoin's first real hard fork just tested mining decentralization for real — and Ocean's hash rate dropped from roughly 40 exahash to 23 before clawing back. Bob Burnett (Barefoot Mining, Ocean chairman) and Nacho Pauls break down what actually happened when the chain split, why rented hash fled while owned hash stayed, and what the loss of Bitcoin Knots means for client diversity going forward.
You'll learn why the "template centralization" problem is still the core issue even after BIP-110 was resolved, how a non-KYC pool kept paying miners through the chaos, and why Bob argues Bitcoin needs 3 to 5 competing clients — drawing a direct parallel to how the PC industry standardized USB, PCI, and Bluetooth. You'll also get the honest story behind Ocean's high-profile team departures, who's stepping into the CTO and chairman roles, and why Bob calls the whole episode a "distraction" the community ultimately settled the right way.
Whether you run a node, stack sats, or care about who really controls Bitcoin's hash, this is a candid, insider conversation about mining, consensus, and what comes next.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:41 - Hard Fork Fallout and What Happened
1:12 - Have Bob's Decentralization Views Shifted?
1:54 - Datum Templates and Decentralization Fix
3:25 - Ocean Hash Rate Drops From 40 to 23 EH
3:43 - Overcoming Defeatism Among Motivated Miners
4:11 - Nacho Explains Why Miners Left Then Returned
4:57 - Only Pool That Let Miners Choose
They’re Not Saving the Republic, They’re Building Fortress North America | Brent Johnson
Saison 1 · Épisode 94
lundi 7 septembre 2026 • Durée 01:04:35
Mentor Sessions Ep 094: Brent Johnson explains the 2026 dollar outlook, the collapse of the rules-based order, Bessent's Treasury moves, and how AI and stablecoins entrench the US dollar.
The rules-based order that kept markets stable for 80 years is dying - and Brent Johnson explains what replaces it, why the US dollar gets STRONGER not weaker, and how AI and stablecoins entrench American power for decades.
Brent Johnson (Santiago Capital, Dollar Milkshake Theory) sits down for a wide-ranging conversation on the biggest structural shift in markets since World War Two. You'll learn why he thinks the American Republic could give way to an American empire, why Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks matter more than the headlines suggest, and how passive management can turn a bond wobble into a full crisis. You'll see why he's concentrated in North America and the Western Hemisphere, why he calls the US-China relationship a "divorce," and why he refuses to bet against the US Treasury even as others call for the dollar's death. He also breaks down why AI is now a matter of national security, why stablecoins are structurally bullish for the dollar, and where Bitcoin fits in the emerging digital-asset order.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
1:17 - Iran War and Dollar System Resilience
4:10 - Iran Conflict Pressure on Treasury Yields
5:41 - Rising Yields Create Global Collateral Strain
8:25 - Bessent Long-End Buybacks Explained
10:20 - Mike Green on Passive Bond Risks
11:48 - Rules-Based Order Has Ended
13:39 - Shift to America First Proactive Policy
17:31 - Signs the Rules-Based Order Is Dying
"We're Past The Point Of No Return" | Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden
Saison 1 · Épisode 93
vendredi 4 septembre 2026 • Durée 59:08
Mentor Sessions 093: Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden explain the 2026 global bond market crisis, private credit risk, yield curve control, and Bitcoin and gold as safe havens.
The global bond market is bleeding out in slow motion, and the real danger is buried in private credit that insurance companies can't sell without going insolvent. Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden break down why the long end of the Treasury market is grinding higher, why Scott Bessent intervened before any visible crisis, and what happens when trillion-dollar balance sheets finally hit the sell button.
You'll learn why China is the one nation conspicuously absent from the sovereign debt rout, how AI-driven deflation is reshaping Chinese manufacturing, and why Gromen argues the U.S. now faces a "Weimar gold reparations" problem with true interest expense at 105% of receipts. You'll see why both guests believe rate hikes are no longer even a usable tool under fiscal dominance, how a Blackrock "one phone call" scenario could freeze $5 trillion in a crisis, and where Bitcoin and gold fit as bearer assets when markets get locked down. Alden makes the case for holding scarce assets and extra cash through the air pockets; Gromen explains why he trimmed Bitcoin and exactly when he'd aggressively buy it back.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
1:12 - Treasury Event or Broader Sovereign Debt Crisis
1:34 - Why China Avoids the Global Bond Rout
2:00 - Hyperscalers Emerge as New Bond Vigilantes
3:41 - Path Leading to Yield Curve Control
4:15 - Why Chinese 10-Year Yields Hit Global Lows
6:00 - AI Driving Deflation in Chinese Manufacturing
10:17 - Orderly Bond Market Grind vs Sensationalized Crash
13:43 - The Dog That Didn't Bark in Bessent's Move
This Bitcoin Rally Feels Fake (The Data Says Otherwise) | Michael Sullivan
Saison 1 · Épisode 92
mardi 1 septembre 2026 • Durée 01:02:52
Mentor Sessions 092: Michael Sullivan explains Bitcoin sentiment analysis, emotional cohort signals, OG optimism, narrative shifts, and why the data may point to a bottom.
Bitcoin sentiment just did something it rarely does after a 22% rip: it stayed calm. No euphoria, no desire spike, no retail flooding back — and that gap between the price move and the emotional data is where the real signal lives.
Michael Sullivan — an engineer and fiction writer turned Bitcoin sentiment analyst — breaks down how he tracks 14 distinct emotions across cohorts of Bitcoiners, from OGs and technologists to MSTR treasury speculators. You'll learn why he cohorts the crowd instead of scraping social media, why the Fear & Greed Index misses all the nuance, and why he reads OG optimism as one of the most reliable early signals that positive things are on the horizon. You'll see why 'desire' language sits inversely correlated with price, why the near-total absence of a new narrative can be wildly bullish near a bottom, and how the BIP-110 debate produced algorithmic engagement patterns that looked artificially farmed. He also lays out the AI-bubble-to-Bitcoin thesis and why he's personally bearish by instinct but bullish on the data.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:38 - Why this rally feels like disbelief
1:09 - Massive sentiment phase shift after crash
2:01 - Rally lacks expected euphoria levels
3:05 - Tracking caring language in ColdCard event
3:58 - Technologists impressed most during crisis
5:12 - Studying Saylor's four Bitcoin cohorts
6:33 - MSTR shareholders as conviction outlier
7:18 - OG optimism as reliable bullish signal
Bessent’s Moves Never Made Sense - Until Now | Tom Luongo
Saison 1 · Épisode 91
mardi 1 septembre 2026 • Durée 01:03:31
Mentor Sessions Ep. 091: Tom Luongo explains the 2026 currency war, Scott Bessent's yen bomb, oil collateral, European bond squeeze, and the US Treasury buyback plan.
The previously most powerful people in the world are now price takers, not price makers — and Tom Luongo walks through exactly how Scott Bessent flipped that switch. Global markets just witnessed a structural break in the European bond trade, and almost nobody saw the mechanism behind it.
In this conversation, Tom Luongo and Nathan break down the currency war unfolding across the FX and bond markets: how Bessent 'bombed the yen' by selling euros instead of dollars, why the euro-yen cross froze the moment Operation Epic Fury began, and how Iranian oil loadings were being used as collateral to fuel the short-yen, short-Treasury trade. You'll learn why the US Treasury buyback expansion is a signal and not QE, how the German Bund fits into Europe's alleged default-and-consolidate endgame, and what John Ratcliffe's open trip to Moscow may be telegraphing. You'll also hear Luongo's falsifiable macro thesis — where the 30-year yield goes next, and what it means for gold, silver and Bitcoin.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:44 - Bessent's Moves on Yen and Euro
1:27 - Shifting From Kinetic to Economic Siege
3:06 - The Yen Carry Trade That Shouldn't Exist
4:42 - Bessent Blew It Up Selling Euros
8:26 - Euro-Yen Cross Freezes After Iran Strikes
8:49 - Iranian Oil Used as Trade Collateral
11:17 - Traders Trapped After Buying Oil Breakout
12:59 - How Bessent Scans 270 Markets for Signals
18:05 - Treasury Buyback Expansion Details
17:46 - Sneaky Behaviors Observed in AI
20:48 - Bitcoin Proof of Work Constrains AI
25:59 - Nuclear Risks Middle East Conflict
27:47 - Putin Iran Restraint in Geopolitics
40:52 - Israel Palestine Historical Context
45:11 - Iran Nuclear Strike Questions Raised
50:40 - Yen Carry Trade Stability Analysis
59:06 - Boomers Driving Boom and Bust
59:33 - Median Boomer Retirement Savings Shortfall
1:03:19 - Boomer Wealth Transfer Needs Repricing
1:08:08 - Lindsay Clancy Case Maternal Tracking
2:01:32 - System Collapse Worse Than Historical
2:03:16 - AI Bubble in Fifteenth Inning
2:04:31 - Market Regression Eighty Five Percent Drop
2:36:45 - Nasdaq Rollover Sudden Bid Support
2:39:15 - Gamma Squeeze Pushing Markets Higher
2:42:07 - Potential Correction Impact on Saylor
🔗 Links & Resources
→ Dave Collum on X: https://x.com/DavidBCollum
If you want the macro conversations the rest of the space won't touch, this is the show. Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin and macro interviews, and drop your take on Collum's one-year AI clock in the comments.
⚡Previous Episode:
Jack Mallers: https://youtu.be/LpwGHzUTQ7A
🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor
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💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.
41:12 - China's Gold and Bitcoin Dollar Debasement
45:49 - Why Jack Glad Clarity Act Failed
47:53 - Fix: End World Reserve Currency Status
49:18 - Bitcoin Not Medium of Exchange First
55:20 - AI Threat to Open Source Security
57:33 - Open Source Alone Does Not Secure
1:02:09 - Just Use Bitcoin Core for Security
1:08:37 - Jack on Leaving Twenty One and Authenticity
1:14:47 - What Strike Is Building Now
1:20:04 - Closing Message to Bitcoiners
Guest: Jack Mallers of Strike
🔗 Links & Resources:
- Jack Mallers on X: https://x.com/jackmallers
- Strike: https://strike.me
⚡Previous Episode:
Zack Shapiro: https://youtu.be/iZ7e0hY0WL8
🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions
🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor
⚡Sovereign Sessions — AI, Privacy, and Bitcoin education: http://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions?sub_confirmation=1
⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088
⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB
⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOIN
https://qrco.de/bfiDC6
💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.
👉 Visit btcmentor.io
If this conversation gave you a new way to see the macro picture, join the regulars — subscribe for more long-form Bitcoin interviews and reply with your take on "monetizing chaos." Catch the previous episode with James Lavish and Doomberg linked in the cards.
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