Blain's Morning Porridge – Détails, épisodes et analyse

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Blain's Morning Porridge

Bill Blain

Business & Entrepreneuriat

Fréquence : 1 épisode/2j. Total Éps: 42

Bill Blain is well know market commentator and has published the daily Morning Porridge explaining markets sincee 2007. This podcast is a daily update of the Porridge.

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Geopolitics, Markets and Economics – Are They Still Connected?

Saison 1 · Épisode 26

mercredi 7 janvier 2026 • Durée 11:41

Blain’s Morning Porridge Jan 7th, 2026: Geopolitics, Markets and Economics – Are They Still Connected?

“The barometer read “Fair” yesterday, but the Shipping Report says, “Gale Imminent”.

Markets have opened strongly in 2026 and seem remarkably sanguine towards rising geopolitical instability and shocks. They’re buying a rosy outlook of rising profits, lower rates and costs, and are blithely unconcerned by the risks of destabilisation from conflict or competition.

I got a call from a Morning Porridge reader y’day, demanding to know why I’ve been so fixated on events in Venezuela this year… “What about the markets?” he asked. Very fair question. A succession of record highs in stocks suggest all is well! He thinks Venezuela is nothing more than a distraction, but there appears to be a massive disconnect between the commentariat’s reaction to the Geopolitical Shocks we’re seeing, and the market’s complete and utter lack of concern about them.

Take a glance at markets and its looking bright and breezy – fair sailing weather as the barometer would tell us. Stocks are broadly higher anticipating a fine year ahead. Bond yields are generally lower, looking forward to lower rates and declining inflation. Nothing to worry about… Apparently.

Yet the news flow is dominated by events in far-off Venezuela, and now Trump’s careless threats to seize Greenland – with military force if necessary – with nary a concern for what that will do for European stability or as a market for American goods and services. The Chinese are licking their lips in anticipation of boom times to follow. Funny how the UK’s weather is set by systems born in the Caribbean and how the North Atlantic Drift and Jetstream over Greenland direct the storms that batter us.

The trick to connecting the big picture of geopolitics, macro and micro economic factors that drive markets (and I not claiming to have mastered this yet in my brief 4-decade market career), is catching the signals that matter amidst the tumult of activity:

Continued/ go to www.morningporridge.com for access to the full story.

If you subscribe to the full Morning Porridge you get the email every morning and links to videos and podcasts…

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Venezuela Bonds – are you a buyer or seller?

Saison 1 · Épisode 26

mardi 6 janvier 2026 • Durée 11:10

Blain’s Morning Porridge Jan 6th 2026: Venezuela Bonds – are you a buyer or seller?

“A land of passion and contradictions, where the past and the future collide.”

Venezuela bond prices have spiked higher on expectations of new investment, debt restructuring, and the monetisation of its oil resources. But how likely is it the nation can be reformed, attract new money, and satisfy the population while the old regime remains in place, and Washington demands to be paid?

The critical difference between a stock trader and a bond trader is the latter is a pragmatist dealing on facts and probabilities, while the former will happily believe six improbable things before breakfast. Bond prices reflect reality. Stock prices are not set by uncommonly good sense but by the gullibility of equity buyers to believe fairy stories… (Hence Elon Musk’s success – he’s not much of an engineer or inventor, but a marketing whizz who has convinced investors he’s got the ability to deliver rounder wheels.)

Sometimes the cold logic of the bond market and the confabulations of stocks collide – as they apparently did yesterday in the market for Venezuela Bonds.

The price of the nation’s debt saw spectacular gains on the wake of President Trump’s new approach to Strategic Country Acquisition – Gorilla Style: bump off the top guy, threaten the rest and watch them to fall into line. (That’s the hope – we shall find out how the actuality plays out in coming weeks and if the “regime” behaves as Trump demands.)

Distressed EM debt is always interesting. It all about gaming possibilities, prospectuses, and the prospects for change. It can be a murky business. There is “said-to-be” an unground railroad of Russian debt being sold to dubious investment desks in Central Asia, from where the bonds are on-sold at deep discounts to Russian oligarchs looking to deal them to Putin in return for influence and patronage.

The benchmark Venezuela bonds (debt issued by the national oil company PDVSA, Petroleos de Venezuela) due 2037, spiked up 11 points to 31 cents on the dollar yesterday. In the past year the VENZ 9.25% bond due 2027 have traded up from 15 cents to 41 cents!

Another Judder in Geopolitics.

Saison 1 · Épisode 25

lundi 5 janvier 2026 • Durée 11:20

Blain’s Morning Porridge, January 5th 2026 – Another Judder in Geopolitics.

“When America brings its full capabilities to bear, no tyrant is beyond reach.”

Concepts about global law and order were left by the wayside over the weekend – Trump’s administration delivered what it said it would in terms of America First, Western Hemisphere focus. Do Venezuela and Iran raise or diminish the risks of Global Conflict in 2026. What comes next?

Happy New Year. Let’s hope it is a good and prosperous one…. The signals are looking mixed.

My bear-scenario outlook for 2026 markets was based around a significantly higher risk of global conflict destabilising the global economy – the potential for an even larger shock than Covid. Have the events in Venezuela and Iran over the weekend caused that perception of risk to rise or fall? That will become clearer in coming days.

What will President Trump’s surgical removal of President Maduro from office in Venezuela, of the rising prospect sfor regime change from internal dissent in Iran, mean for global trade and geopolitical risks? How will markets account for yet another geopolitical judder moment? Will they even care?

Nothing should have surprised us about the Maduro takedown. It played to all the themes Trump has quite openly exposed around Project 2025, America First, his new “Don-Roe” Doctrine of American hegemony over the Western hemisphere, and in the recent National Security Strategy release. He is not wasting time on difficult and destabilising regime change – effectively telling Maduro’s cronies in power they have the choice to kow-tow and follow US direction, or be removed with prejudice. Last night they appeared to be falling into line.

Trump’s actions would have shocked us a decade ago. His disdain for the US constitution and political system, international law, and diplomatic niceties horrifies many. The World has changed. This is the new age of the authoritarian state.

But let’s not be blind-sided by how Trump’s actions shattered any illusions we retained about America, freedom, democracy and justice. The reality is the US military just proved how supremely effective it is, able to mount an operation no other nation could even contemplate. The complexity of integrating and executing a plan combining 150 aircraft, human, signals and satellite intelligence, and special forces insertions, was stunning.

Destabilisation and Peak Exuberance

Saison 1 · Épisode 24

vendredi 19 décembre 2025 • Durée 14:59

Blain’s Morning Porridge 19th Dec 2025 – Destabilisation and Peak Exuberance

“There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”

Markets are winding down for the holiday break, but the news flow continues to hint at rising destability and noise, hinting the future economic path will get more twisty and difficult. Lower rates and QE fuelled markets (but not growth) in the 2010s, but won’t work when there is a strong inflationary impulse in place!

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Unless something dramatic happens in the next two weeks, this is the last Morning Porridge of 2025. I will therefore wish everyone a very Merry Christmas, Solstice or whatever, and a Guid and Prosperous 2026. I have a massive pile of interesting books to read, a recovering wife to look after, friends to spend time with, and a damn smart dog, Dinnerjacket Wrigglebottom (DeeJay to his mates), who takes me out for long walks explaining me the economics of treats. Perfect… nothing to distract me for the next 2 weeks, baring interruptions…

I reckon the coming year is going to be more challenging than we expect – I don’t think we understand just how much the world changed in 2025, or how the consequences are yet to play out. Global uncertainty will remain a destabilising theme – every day there is something new, each of seemingly limited import, but which will add up to a mighty noise:

Last night’s failure by Europe to act decisively by using seized Russian Assets to finance Ukraine for fear of Fitch Ratings (Who???) downgrading Euroclear, confirms the headless chicken dither in Yoorp over the necessity to take ownership of the War.
The American President went on National TV for 20 minutes to rant at American voters how good the economy is – the WSJ fact checked him and announced 91% of his claims were bogus.
The Bank of England narrowly voted to cut rates despite inflation fears… Angels on a pinhead…

Regular readers of the Morning Porridge will know that as a dour Scotsman I am seldom mistaken for a ray of Sunshine. I’ve been bearish on overvalued stock markets and the market’s over-active speculation gland since 2010, the beginning of the QE Era. 16 years is a long time waiting for my negativity to finally fall into place – but who knows…. Maybe this time…

Bitcoin and Crypto Further Detach from Reality.

Saison 1 · Épisode 23

mercredi 17 décembre 2025 • Durée 17:08

Blain’s Morning Porridge 17th December 2025 – Bitcoin and Crypto Further Detach from Reality.

“If you don’t believe it, I’m not going to waste time trying to convince you.”

Global Markets surge ahead. Bitcoin has been left behind. Yet again the crypto bubble has popped. All that’s holding it up is buy-the-dip greater fools, hope and belief – none of which are strategies for success. Time for a reassessment of what Bitcoin is and isn’t, and why it’s time to stop wasting energy on it!

Christmas is traditionally a time of goodwill to all men – even the shills of the Crypto World.

I’ve been thinking what I can possibly do to help them at this time of festive joy? Should I give them a dopamine hit by telling them everything is fine, this is just a speed-bump -and not to worry because increasing global international adoption of crypto assets means eternal upside? Or should I gift them some tough love – by telling them the truth? How do you tell true believers they are worshipping false idols, and Crypto is all absolute bollchocks?

Bitcoin is down 20% on the year, and 30% down from its October peak. Trump’s memecon is worth a tad more than the square root of f***all. As it tumbles, the BTC Treasury concept pops, Gold rises, and stocks remain solid – it’s demonstrated, yet again, that Bitcoin does not store value, isn’t linked to the economy, and is not a digital safe haven. And don’t tell me its Energy – that’s utter bunkum.

The reality is Crypto is worth only what the market believes it’s worth – which isn’t as much as it was. And, in recent months the decline in its prices has confirmed Bitcoin is now wholly divorced from the direction of global markets.

You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

The New Economics and Investibility of Defence

Saison 1 · Épisode 23

mardi 16 décembre 2025 • Durée 14:59

Blain’s Morning Porridge 16th December, 2025: The New Economics and Investibility of Defence

“The war was started by career soldiers, but will be finished by teachers, engineers and accountants.”

Ukraine has demonstrated massive changes in how future wars will be fought. Yet, the military bureaucracies of Western Nations are mired in the procurement-treacle of 80 years of peacetime spending. It’s time for radical overhaul, and an explosion of private-funding to build a stronger Western economy through aggressive deterrence.

One of the big market themes I’ve been drawn to is the rising threat of conflict involving what is left of the now fracturing Western Alliance. That’s why I’m now an Advisor to Spitfire Strategic Capital – a highly innovative defence fund. If you had asked me if a general European War was likely 5-years ago, I would have laughed. Today – it’s a substantial economic risk that could swamp supply chains, economies and markets. The World changes faster than we think.

The most basic duty of any state is security. Europe and the UK are guilty of failure. As the USA retreats from foreign entanglements, it’s time for a massive European policy shift to be seen to be acting with purpose and alignment.

The threat is very real. Yesterday the new head of Britain’s MI6, Blaise Metreweli, warned Russia is deliberately prolonging the war in Ukraine, and has no intention of signing any peace deal. She described how the UK and Europe are in a grey area, caught between peace and war with “an aggressive, expansionist and revisionist” Russia as Putin tests the limits across Nato through cyber-attacks, sabotage and drone intrusions. The head of the UK’s defence staff, Air Chief Marshal Richard Knighton, later warned of coming conflict in Europe that will require similar sacrifices as were made in the second World War, and that the UK is woefully underprepared.

The war in Ukraine has taught many lessons. Everyone will be familiar with the leaps in drone technology. The new economics of warfare – the unsustainability of spending millions on an interceptor missile to shoot down a drone costing a few hundred of dollars when the enemy is mounting swarm attacks numbered in the thousands, and the entire inventory of missile inceptors is measured in dozens – is brutal. Ukrainian pop-up factories close to the frontlines churn out thousands of attack drones each day – but it takes months to build expensive interceptors.

Some Big themes for 2026?

Saison 1 · Épisode 22

lundi 15 décembre 2025 • Durée 13:12

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 15th 2025: Some Big themes for 2026?

“Santa Baby, one thing I forgot, a yacht and the deeds to a platinum mine…”

The Chinese curse about living in “interesting times” is a boon to anyone fascinated by markets. There is no shortage of excitement coming our way next year – everything from conflict threats, renewed inflation, the return of QE, to the Space X IPO. But the thing is… we really don’t know….. we never have!

Being a market commentator comes with a terrible cost – the numbing fear that strikes at 4 am that there is nothing to write about! Dull, boring, predictable markets might be great for bond investors – but they are the curse of the markets’ chattering classes who seek to describe what’s occurring.

Thankfully…. There is no shortage of stuff to write about these days.

There are so many different levels to markets – from the over-arching macro themes of geopolitics, economics, growth, commodities, liquidity and policy & politics, right down to the individual narratives driving individual stocks and bonds. Then there are the themes that weave across markets – like the “speculation on speculation” that drives the crypto markets, or the effects and consequences of how inflationary expectations will impact markets. And the capacity of people to fool themselves and others never ceases to surprise me.

We may be living in an age where General Artificial Intelligence is nearly upon us, when Quantum Computing may shortly crack the biggest problems of health, wealth and prosperity, and Energy is key to everything, but fundamentally…. We are still a bunch of primates recently (in geological terms) out the trees, whose brains are programmed to fight or flight a pride of lions or the hiss of a snake. We obey emotions triggered by dopamine, serotonin, and hormone FOMO – the most powerful force in the financial markets: the Fear of Missing Out. We crave love and companionship, but worship the crass greed of success.

We are not as clever as we think. On that basis… what to expect in 2026?

Outlook 2026: Conflict or Trade?

Saison 1 · Épisode 22

vendredi 12 décembre 2025 • Durée 18:16

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 12th, 2025 – Outlook 2026: Conflict or Trade?

“The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that once believed they were eternal.”

2026 Outlooks contain rosy predictions for stock market upside, calmer bond markets, the triumph of AI, and even a few who still say Bitcoin will rule us all. But the major Macro risk will be global trade – what happens as China and the USA face off? Trump has fractured the Western Alliances even as China’s trade and military strength give it all the options. What will Emperor Xi choose to do?

It is the time of the year for guessing what might happen next….

I have no crystal ball. All I can do is perceive the world through a glass, darkly – based on insights from friends and clients (who are often both). This morning I’m going to paint a Global Macro scenario that is already in play – triggered by Trump’s careless unravelling of the Western Alliances. If it plays through, it will utterly change markets.

It’s one I personally believe will set a tone of heightened market risk for the coming years. There are three critical ingredients to this outlook:

China – Options
Europe, Japan and Korea – Capacity, Intent and Deterrence
Global Trade or Global Conflict

You will notice America does not feature. President Trump has played his hand and accelerated the coming economic and, perhaps, kinetic conflict. What matters now is how other nations now play the cards they’ve been dealt in the Great Game of Geopolitics.

You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

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The US economy, Potemkin Markets and QE

Saison 1 · Épisode 22

jeudi 11 décembre 2025 • Durée 10:58

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 11th, 2025 – The US economy, Potemkin Markets and QE

“The IQ of a mob is the IQ of the dumbest member divided by the number of the crowd.”

Y’day we had yet another Judder Moment for markets as the Fed surrendered to Trump and prepares to juice the markets with renewed QE. Have we learnt nothing? No, I guess we have not. Pretend and keep pretending as we enter the Potemkin Economy era. This will not end well.

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What should we make of yesterday’s Fed Meeting? A cut in Fed Funds to 3.50-3.75%. Huzzah! Ah, the madness of crowds… “Oh no, here we go again” said the bowl of petunias.

What we witnessed at yesterday’s Fed meeting was extraordinary. A bunch of academics debating angels on a pinhead while under the presidential cosh? Were they thinking about their role as the guardians of price stability and job security.. or were they focused on the political trend. Lots of talk about elevated risks to inflation and jobs.. but lots of what looked like dither and analysis paralysis.

In the ongoing absence of tangible and real data, and current politics.… lots to argue about. It’s clear what the president wants – lower rates to keep juicing the stock market into the Mid-Terms in 11 months time.. A strong stock market looks like a strong America. Simple As.
Welcome to the Potemkin Political Economy…

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What does new US Security Strategy mean for Markets and Outlook?

Saison 1 · Épisode 21

mardi 9 décembre 2025 • Durée 12:17

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 9th, 2025 – What does new US Security Strategy mean for Markets and Outlook?

“For he on honey-dew hath fed, and drunk the milk of Paradise.”

The new US National Security Strategy (NSS) revealed last week confirms just how much the world has changed. It was a kick in the teeth for Europe and leaves the door ajar on Taiwan. It’s unlikely to foster stability. It increases the pressure on Europe to swiftly rearm, and unify its defence and deterrence capabilities. For America – it raises fundamental questions about its declining power, strength, might and economic outlook.

A number of Porridge Readers asked yesterday why I hadn’t commented on President Trump’s new US National Security Strategy (NSS) yesterday. The Strategy was released last Thursday, but given my close involvement with Spitfire Strategic Capital, the hybrid PE/Defence Fund, I held off till I’d discussed it with the Fund Principals.(For the record: The comments below are entirely my own, and don’t represent the views of the Fund.)

The US NSS puts the recent launch of the Spitfire Fund into an even more urgent context. As others have commented, “it could have been authored by Putin.” Europe now has even less time to rebuild its defensive capabilities and prepare itself for decades of crisis. The only way it will survive is through deterrence and being prepared against multiple threats – Russia is the immediately obvious one. Others will be coming.

Sadly, I am utterly unconvinced European governments collectively appreciate the urgency and scale of the threat facing them. They are still failing to prioritise the urgency of new defence spending.

You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

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Blain's Morning Porridge – Détails, épisodes et analyse

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