In this conversation, Douglas Holtz-Eakin discusses the pressing issues surrounding America's national debt and fiscal health. He explores the implications of government shutdowns, the role of deficits in economic growth, and the structural challenges posed by entitlement programs. Holtz-Eakin emphasizes the need for political leadership to address these issues and the importance of long-term thinking in economic policy. He also touches on the Federal Reserve's independence, the impact of tariffs, and the future of social security, providing insights into how these factors intertwine with national security and global economic dynamics takeaways America's national debt is a significant concern that has been growing for decades. Government shutdowns have minimal economic impact but highlight political dysfunction. Deficits can hinder economic growth and limit opportunities for future generations. Entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare contribute to structural deficits. Political leadership has failed to address the looming fiscal crisis effectively. The future of Social Security is uncertain, with potential cuts looming in the next seven years. AI may improve productivity, but it won't solve fiscal issues overnight. Sovereign wealth funds are not a viable solution for the U.S. due to a lack of surplus. Tariffs raise revenue but can harm economic growth and are a regressive tax. Supply chain resilience is crucial for national security and economic stability. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Douglas Holtz-Eakin 04:49 Government Shutdown Dynamics 07:57 Impact of Shutdown on Fiscal Health 12:49 The Deficit Dilemma 17:44 Entitlement Programs and Structural Deficits 22:46 Potential Solutions for Social Security 26:47 The Role of AI and Sovereign Wealth Funds 30:57 Tariffs and Global Supply Chain Fragility 32:15 Supply Chain Resilience Post-Pandemic 34:02 Government's Role in Supply Shortages 35:30 Long-Term Thinking in American Politics 36:51 Congressional Accountability and Military Actions 38:25 Influence of Special Interests in Politics 38:49 Understanding the Congressional Budget Office 41:54 The Future of the Dollar and Global Trade 44:40 The Federal Reserve's Independence and Its Importance 48:58 Comparing Monetary Policies: U.S. vs. Other Countries 53:54 National Security and Fiscal Policy 57:43 Bipartisan Solutions for Economic Reform Find out more about Douglas Holtz-Eakin and the American Action Forum here

In this conversation, Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow at CSIS, discusses the evolving dynamics of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and its implications for global governance, US-China relations, and regional partnerships. She highlights China's ambitions to reshape the international order, the complexities of India-China relations, and the significance of recent developments within the SCO. The discussion also touches on the risks associated with China's growing confidence, the appeal of its development model, and the potential for alternative financial systems. Levin emphasizes the importance of understanding these dynamics for American businesses and policymakers. 00:00 Introduction to Henrietta Levin and Her Background 07:58 European Perspectives on China 11:04 Understanding the Shanghai Cooperation Organization 14:03 China's Long-Term Goals with the SCO 16:56 China's Vision for Global Governance 20:15 The Significance of the Recent SCO Summit 23:12 China-India Relations and Their Implications 25:57 The Future of the SCO and Regional Dynamics 30:23 China's Growing Influence in Asia 36:10 Contrasting Development Models: China vs. the West 41:03 The SEO and Alternative Financial Systems 46:58 Turkey's Role in the SEO and Its Complex Relations 54:19 Navigating US-China Relations: Strategies and Outcomes

Send us a text summary In this conversation, Ethan Brown discusses the evolution of close air support (CAS) and the critical role of Joint Terminal Attack Controllers (JTACs) and Tactical Air Control Party (TACP) members during the Global War on Terror. He highlights the importance of air-ground integration, the lessons learned from past operations, and the future challenges faced by the TACP community in an era of great power competition. The discussion emphasizes the trust dynamic between ground forces and JTACs, the technological advancements in air power, and the need for continued prioritization of close air support capabilities within the Air Force.contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com takeaways The Global War on Terror fundamentally changed air-ground integration. JTACs played a crucial role in close air support operations. The TACP community is often overlooked despite their importance. Close air support requires detailed planning and situational awareness. Trust between ground forces and JTACs is essential for mission success. Technological advancements have significantly impacted air power capabilities. Lessons learned from past incidents shape current practices in close air support. The future of the TACP community is uncertain within the Air Force. Close air support is not just about calling in airstrikes; it's about command and control. The evolution of warfare necessitates a reevaluation of JTAC roles. Sound Bites "This was the CAS War." "The most dangerous thing we do is call in close air support." "The buck stops with the ground force commander." Chapters 00:00Introduction to TacP and Close Air Support 04:43Understanding Close Air Support 08:04The Role of JTACs in Modern Warfare 10:57The Importance of TacP Training and Knowledge 13:42Challenges and Risks in Close Air Support 16:39Lessons Learned from Historical Incidents 19:47The Dynamics of Trust in Air-Ground Integration 35:27Building Trust in Combat Operations 43:38The Evolution of Close Air Support 46:51Real-Life Examples of Close Air Support 52:33The Future of JTACs in Modern Warfare 01:02:34The Air Force's Commitment to Close Air Support Support the show

Send us a text In this  episode, Scott interviews Tim Mak, an American journalist living in Ukraine, about the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Tim runs a publication called The Counter Offensive, which focuses on telling the stories of the Russian invasion in Ukraine through human interest stories. They discuss various topics including the state of the conflict, the role of the international community, the impact on the Ukrainian people, and the long-term effects of the war.The Counter Offensive: https://www.counteroffensive.news/Contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text Guest David Kilcullen. The conversation explores the reasons behind America's failure in Afghanistan and the consequences of the Taliban retaking Kabul. It delves into the concept of counterinsurgency and its application in different contexts. The discussion highlights the mistakes made in Afghanistan, such as the failure to negotiate a peace settlement with the Taliban, the expansion of ISAF without understanding the local dynamics, and the attempt to replicate the surge strategy from Iraq. The disconnect between military leaders and civilian decision-makers, as well as the lack of accountability, are also discussed. The conversation with Dave Kilcullen explores the failures and lessons learned from the war in Afghanistan. Kilcullen highlights the lack of accountability within the institution and the inability to adapt to changing environments. He emphasizes the importance of a fighting force that can critique conventional wisdom and adapt when necessary. The collapse of the Afghan government and military is attributed to a focus on central government institutions rather than local governance systems. The relationship with Pakistan is discussed, with Kilcullen noting their fear of strategic encirclement and their desire to keep Afghanistan weak. He also emphasizes the need for better civilian-military coordination, political engagement, and a willingness to learn from past mistakes in future conflicts. Counterinsurgency by David Kilcullen The Ledger: Accounting for Failure in Afghanistan by David Kilcullen and Greg Millscontact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text The conversation explores the concept of readiness in the military and the challenges of balancing people-first initiatives with the pursuit of readiness. It delves into the definition of readiness and its various components, such as individual and unit training, equipment functionality, and supply. The conversation also discusses the Army's training cycle and the role of CTC rotations in preparing units for deployment. The impact of funding on readiness is explored, particularly in relation to personnel shortages and the need for modernization. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the tension between taking care of soldiers and maintaining readiness, highlighting the trade-offs between quality of life issues and training priorities. The conversation explores the challenges of balancing training and readiness with the well-being of soldiers and their families. It highlights the need for predictability and stability in training schedules to support soldiers and their families. The conversation also discusses the loss of training management mastery in the Army's officer corps and the focus on immediate results rather than long-term readiness. The impact of toxic leadership and the officer career track on training cycles and decision-making is also examined. The conversation concludes with a call for a better balance between training and soldier well-being, as well as the need for metrics that measure morale and command culture. contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text In this episode Scott interviews Leo Blanken (PhD), an associate professor of defense analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School, about innovation as a tool of national security. They discuss the need for innovation in the rapidly changing strategic and technological landscape, the challenges faced by the US military in adapting to these changes, and the importance of a comprehensive national security strategy. They also explore the role of the defense industrial base and the relationship between the government and the private sector in fostering innovation. Dr. Blanken emphasizes the need for the military to slow down and be more thoughtful in its approach to innovation, focusing on purpose and capability rather than just grabbing technology for its own sake. The conversation highlights the importance of culture and incentives in driving innovation and transformation in the United States. It emphasizes the need for the military to leverage education opportunities as a way to foster mid-range innovation and develop strategic assets. The discussion also touches on the challenges of partnering with foreign forces and the need to understand their specific needs and priorities. The conversation concludes by addressing the issue of sacred cows in the defense budget and the importance of having tough conversations to drive innovation and question traditional approaches.Leo Blanken (PhD) website: https://faculty.nps.edu/ljblanke/contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text The conversation explores the competition and strategic implications of space exploration and activities between states. It discusses the role of the US Space Force, the reasons for the increasing focus on space as a domain of competition, and the activities of geopolitical rivals such as China and Russia. The conversation also delves into the concept of irregular warfare in space and the potential impact of privatization on space activities. Overall, the discussion highlights the need for strategic thinking and cooperation in the space domain. Takeaways Space has become a new domain of competition between states, driven by advancements in technology, increased access to space, and the pursuit of national security interests. The US Space Force is a military organization focused on protecting national security interests in space and supporting joint operations. Geopolitical rivals such as China and Russia have their own space programs and objectives, which may differ from those of the United States and its allies. Space activities can be categorized as regular warfare or irregular warfare, with the latter involving actions below the threshold of armed conflict. The privatization of space activities offers opportunities for innovation and cost-effectiveness, but there is a need to balance commercial involvement with the inherent responsibilities of the government. Link to Buy "Fight for the Final Frontier: Irregular Warfare in Space" https://a.co/d/jgiT0Ce  Contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text Liza Tobin, Senior Director of the Economy Team at the Special Competitive Studies Project, discusses China's systemic rivalry with the United States and the need for a strong American industrial policy. She explains why China is the main geopolitical rival and outlines its goals for global dominance. Tobin also highlights the challenges the US faces in competing with China's brute force economics and the need for a coherent counter strategy. She emphasizes the importance of investing in the basic building blocks of AI leadership and the role of the US government in buying down risk and enabling companies to scale up. The conversation explores the role of government funding in research and development (R&D) and the challenges of relying on the private sector for critical national needs. It highlights the risks of dependency on China for critical infrastructure and the importance of investing in national objectives. The discussion concludes with a call to rebuild industrial capacity and an invitation to the AI Expo Link to AI Expo: https://expo.scsp.ai/about/Contact the Show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text With death tolls rising on all sides, Israel's military operation in Gaza to rescue it's hostages and root out the Hamas terrorists that attacked it on October 7th continues to grind on. As imagines of Palestinian suffering reach audiences around the globe, South Africa has brought charges of genocide against Israel, claiming that the suffering of Palestinians isn't a tragic but inevitable result of Israel exercising its right to self defense, but instead a deliberate plan to destroy them as a nation. To unpack this, Francis Boyle (PhD) and Professor Amichai Cohen share their insights on the merits of South Africa's case, the role of the International Court of Justice, and how this case and recent rulings by the court will impact events moving forward. Francis Boyle (PhD): https://law.illinois.edu/faculty-research/faculty-profiles/francis-boyle/Professor Amichai Cohen: https://en.idi.org.il/experts/1491contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text Scott and Jahara 'FRANKY' Matisek discuss the misconceptions surrounding US military assistance and coups in Africa. They explore the goals of US security assistance in Africa and the challenges of promoting democracy through this assistance. They also delve into the need for a whole-of-government approach and the importance of staffing embassies and addressing economic development. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the Lobito Corridor as a development project aimed at countering China's Belt and Road Initiative in Africa. The conversation explores the geopolitical significance of the Libido Corridor, a transportation project in Africa that aims to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative. It discusses the importance of the corridor in securing rare earths and minerals in the Congo and its potential benefits for African countries. The conversation then shifts to the idea of building Army Corps of Engineers in African countries to facilitate development and foster positive civil-military relations. It also highlights the advocacy for a peace engineering corps in every African military. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the challenges and depressing realities in Africa, including the rise of insurgency, terrorism, and declining democracies.original article: https://irregularwarfare.org/articles/to-coup-or-not-to-coup-the-cold-war-hangover-of-us-security-assistance/contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text Sean O'Keefe's wide ranging career in government stretched from being the staff director for the Senate appropriations committee, chief financial officer for the Department of Defense, Secretary of the Navy, and leading NASA. He shares his views on globalization, America's role in the world, the difficulties in creating an effective industrial policy to support America's national security, and how states need to cooperate in Space. contact the show: atthwatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text  Scott and Jake Dyal, CEO of Certus Core, discuss the intersection of AI, data integration, and national security. They explore the challenges faced by government agencies in managing and utilizing data, particularly in the context of drone and sensor data. Jake shares insights from his experience transitioning from government service to the private sector, highlighting the bureaucratic hurdles and the need for innovative solutions in government contracting. The conversation also touches on the importance of small bets in defense innovation and the evolving role of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU). takeaways Custom data products are essential for various government missions. Integrating multiple data sources enhances decision-making capabilities. Philosophical foundations can influence data integration technologies. The ATO process is a significant barrier to innovation in government. Startups face numerous challenges in navigating government contracting. The DIU has had mixed success in facilitating innovation. Bureaucratic processes often hinder timely technology adoption. Small bets in defense can lead to significant advancements. Building relationships with trusted partners is crucial for success. Chapters 00:00Introduction to Certus Core and Its Mission 03:08The Challenge of Data Integration in National Security 05:59Philosophical Foundations of Data Communication 09:05Transitioning from Government to Private Sector 11:56Navigating Bureaucracy in Government Contracting 15:03The Role of Innovation in Defense 17:48Barriers to Effective Government Acquisition 20:58The Future of Defense Technology and Partnerships Support the show

Send us a text Ethan Brown is an Airforce Special Operations veteran who is currently a Senior Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. He wrote an article that deep dived the impact of 20 years of the Global War on Terror has had on how the American public sees the military and impacts recruiting. Link to article: https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-ghost-of-gwot-haunting-the-military-recruiting-crisis/Contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text Retired Army Special Forces two-star general Kurt Sonntag discusses the transition of special operations from counterterrorism to great power competition. He shares his experience leading the Combined Joint Task Force -  Horn of Africa and highlights the challenges of coordinating efforts with partner nations and interagency organizations. MG Sonntag also discusses the activities of great power actors in the region, including Iran, Russia, Turkey, and China. He emphasizes the importance of campaign planning and the need for better coordination between intelligence and special operations. MG Sonntag concludes by addressing the impact of billet cuts on special operations. In this conversation, MG Sonntag discusses the challenges in manning Special Forces and the need to maintain the proper force structure. He highlights the reduced manning strength of ODAs (Operational Detachment-Alpha) during the early stages of the war on 9/11 and the impact it had on their capabilities. MG Sonntag emphasizes the importance of maintaining the base organization of 10 to 12 members per ODA and the risks associated with deploying smaller teams. He also discusses his role in restructuring the Special Forces Qualification Course (Q Course) to address attrition rates and training inefficiencies.Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text America is struggling to produce enough ammunition and other hardware to support our allies in a time of need, which has exposed deep cracks in our defense industrial base. Matt Stoller looked at how a series of consolidations among America's defense contractors has increased the costs while reducing the output of military equipment, and how there is no incentive among private industry to address the issue. Link to his article here: https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/why-america-is-out-of-ammunitionContact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text In this conversation, Judge Baker discusses the sources of sovereignty and legitimacy in international law, the role of law in security beyond war crimes, and the challenges and importance of working with lawyers in the military. He also explores the two great legal challenges of our time: Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and the rise of authoritarianism. Judge Baker explains the three purposes of law: authority, process, and values, and discusses the sources of international law, including treaties and customary law. He emphasizes the importance of supporting Ukraine and the rule of law, despite the practical limitations and potential risks involved. The conversation covers various topics related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, including the question of escalation, increasing support to Ukraine, hesitation in providing support, concerns about the misuse of American weapons, security assurances, and NATO membership. It also discusses the Ring Around Russia initiative, which aims to promote the importance of national security law in the frontline states. Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text Check out Jon's book here: https://www.wireless-wars.com/The conversation explores the competition between the US and China in the development and implementation of 5G technology. It highlights the importance of 5G in various sectors and the risks associated with relying on Chinese companies like Huawei. The conversation delves into China's approach to business relationships, including intellectual property theft. It also discusses the need for OpenRAN architecture as a solution to counter China's dominance in the telecom industry. The conversation concludes by emphasizing the challenges and importance of economic decoupling from China and the need for trust-based ecosystems. The conversation explores the challenges and potential of Open RAN, a new approach to building telecom networks. It discusses the need for established companies like Nokia and Ericsson to shift to Open RAN and the difficulties they may face. The role of engineers in designing complicated networks is highlighted, as well as the lack of expertise within carriers. The business incentives for vendors to adopt Open RAN are examined, along with the complexity of spectrum allocation. The conversation concludes by emphasizing the ongoing nature of the Open RAN story and its geopolitical significance.Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text This episode explores the arguments for and against supporting the current rules-based international order and promoting freedom and democracy as a consistent American foreign policy principle. It discusses the historical context of the post-World War II era, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the questioning of America's role in the world. The episode examines the effectiveness of the current international order, highlighting the decrease in global violence and poverty. It delves into the democratic peace theory and the theory of capitalist peace, along with their criticisms and limitations. The episode emphasizes the need for cautious and nuanced foreign policy decisions and the responsibility of citizens to hold leaders accountable.Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text Bob Curris served over 30 years in the military and led Psychological Operations teams around the world. He's concerned the Army is making cuts that will degrade America's ability to conduct information and influence operations as the need to compete in the information space is only increasing with the shift from the GWOT era to the era of Great Power Competition. Link to his original Military Times article here: https://www.militarytimes.com/opinion/2023/11/01/the-army-needs-to-invest-in-psychological-operations-not-cut-them/Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text Discussion with Josh Paul on his decision to resign from the State Department over concerns with the Biden administration's Israel policy, the role of arms transfers in U.S. foreign policy, and the role America plays in the world. Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text Will the BRICS nations end the reign of the U.S. Dollar as the world's dominant currency, threatening America's prosperity and security? On paper, they could, but things get real messy real quick after that. The devil is always in the details. Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text As Israel prepares to invade Gaza and destroy Hamas, what challenges will it face and where can it all go wrong? We discuss the military, political, and economic implications of the ground assault and what lessons Israel should take from America's own experience fighting terrorists hiding among civilians in cities. Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text In this episode of 'At the Water's Edge,' host Scott interviews Alex Tarascio, a pollster from Cygnal, a private GOP polling firm known for its accuracy. They discuss the intricacies of polling, the differences between private and public polling, and the impact of partisanship on polling results. Alex shares insights on current voter sentiment, the role of corporate clients, and the challenges of polling on national security and foreign policy issues. The conversation also touches on the disconnect between military perspectives and public opinion, the future of national security issues in polling, and the importance of political accountability in democracy promotion. As they look ahead to the midterms, they explore key trends and issues that may influence voter behavior. Contact the Show: contact@atthewatersedge.org Cygnal Polling: https://www.cygn.al/ Magpie Spice Co: https://www.instagram.com/magpiespice/ takeaways Polling accuracy has improved significantly since 2016. Private polling firms have different incentives than public ones. Voter sentiment on national security is low, around 5%. Partisanship heavily influences polling results and methodologies. Benchmarking polls serve different purposes than public polls. Corporate clients can impact the type of polling conducted. Young women are becoming disengaged from politics and news. The issue of abortion is losing its significance in voter motivation. Public perception of tariffs is mixed, with many preferring free market solutions. Political accountability is essential for effective democracy promotion. Chapters 00:00Introduction to Polling and Alex Tarascio 04:45The Evolution of Polling Post-2016 07:47The Impact of Partisanship on Polling 10:41Confidentiality and Trust in Polling 13:39Public vs. Private Polling Approaches 16:35National Voter Trends and Current Polling Insights 19:33Sampling and Its Importance in Polling 22:37Corporate Clients and Political Affiliations 25:39Trump's Favorability and Public Perception 28:36Tariffs and Public Opinion 30:35Understanding Partisan Dynamics in Polling 32:42The Impact of Tariffs on Public Opinion 34:47National Security and Foreign Policy in Polling 38:07Public Sentiment on Foreign Policy Issues 41:02The Shift in American Foreign Policy Perspectives 44:01The Role of Political Diversity in Democracy Promotion 49:20Challenges in U.S. Foreign Assistance Programs 53:12Polling Insights for Upcoming Elections 01:01:29Engaging with Signal's Work and Personal Projects Support the show

Send us a text In this episode, Scott and Dr. Jahara 'FRANKY' Matisek discuss the current state of global conflicts, particularly focusing on the dynamics between Israel and Iran, and the tensions between Pakistan and India. They delve into Trump's national security strategy, exploring its foundations and implications, including a modern interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. The conversation also highlights the role of Security Force Assistance Brigades (SFABs) in U.S. military strategy, the impact of sanctions on Russia, and the shifting landscape of U.S. global leadership. The discussion culminates in reflections on the need for accountability and a coherent grand strategy in national security policy. Original article Contact the show: contact@atthewatersedge.org takeaways Trump's national security strategy is often seen as a symptom of broader issues rather than the root cause. Sanctions can have a delayed effect, impacting economies over time despite immediate appearances. The U.S. is perceived as breaking the international order, which could have long-term consequences. A coherent grand strategy is essential for effective national security policy. Accountability in the national security establishment is lacking, leading to a disconnect with the public. The Monroe Doctrine is being reinterpreted to address modern challenges, particularly with China. SFABs play a crucial role in enhancing military strategy and interoperability with allies. America's soft power is diminishing, affecting its global standing. The national security establishment is facing challenges in adapting to new political realities. Trump's foreign policy reflects a unique approach that diverges from traditional strategies. Chapters 00:00Introduction and Background of the Guest 05:22Trump's National Security Strategy Overview 08:30The Monroe Doctrine and Its Modern Implications 11:38Shifts in Military Strategy and Resources 14:30The Role of SFABs in Modern Warfare 17:43Comparing Trump's Policies to Previous Administrations 20:27Sanctions and Their Effectiveness 23:30The Future of U.S.-Russia Relations 26:31Conclusion and Future Implications 34:36Global Perceptions: America vs. China 36:36The Evolution of Soft Power in U.S. Foreign Policy 38:59Trump's Administration: A Shift in Foreign Policy Dynamics 42:29The National Security Community's Disconnect 43:56The Impact of U.S. Wars on Global Reputation 48:42Trump: A Symptom of Deeper Issues 54:29Accountability in National Security Support the show

Send us a text In this episode, Senator Bushra Anjum Butt discusses the escalating tensions between Pakistan and India, particularly focusing on the implications of the Indus Water Treaty and the need for international mediation. She emphasizes Pakistan's mission of peace and the importance of diplomacy over war, while also addressing the role of the U.S. in influencing regional stability. The conversation highlights the risks of escalation and the current domestic sentiment in Pakistan regarding the conflict. takeaways Nuclear war poses a global threat beyond immediate casualties. Pakistan's delegation in the U.S. aims to mediate peace with India. The Indus Water Treaty is crucial for Pakistan's water security. War is not a viable solution to conflicts between nations. International mediation is essential to prevent escalation. The U.S. has significant influence over India's actions. Pakistan seeks economic development and trade over military conflict. Domestic sentiment in Pakistan is currently united against India. The political landscape in Pakistan is complex and evolving. A healthy U.S.-Pakistan relationship should focus on mutual growth. Chapters 00:00Introduction and Mission of Peace 07:49The Indus Water Treaty and Its Implications 10:49Recent Hostilities and Kashmir Conflict 13:50Appeal for International Mediation 17:05US-Pakistan Relations and Economic Development 19:46Pakistan's Diplomatic Strategy 22:50Escalation Risks and Water Security 25:50Domestic Sentiment and Political Unity 28:45Future of US-Pakistan Relations contact the show: contact@atthewatersedge.org Support the show

Send us a text In this conversation, Dr. Steve Call discusses the evolution of air support in military operations, focusing on the role of Tactical Air Controllers (TACPs) and the historical context of air-ground integration. He highlights lessons learned from World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War, emphasizing the importance of close air support (CAS) in modern warfare. Dr. Call also addresses current challenges facing CAS and the future of air support in the military, advocating for a deeper understanding of operational concepts versus strategies. takeaways ALO tours were seen as a dark hole in careers. American military integrates air support tightly with ground units. The history of air-ground coordination is rich and complex. Lessons from WWII shaped modern air support strategies. Post-WWII, the Air Force focused on strategic bombing over CAS. Korean War required a reinvention of CAS tactics. Vietnam War established NCOs as key players in air support. Desert Storm showcased the effectiveness of CAS. Post-9/11 operations highlighted the need for coordination. Current trends threaten the effectiveness of CAS. Chapters 00:00Introduction to Steve Call 04:43Steve's Military Background and Education 08:57The Evolution of Tactical Air Control 12:48The Importance of Air-Ground Integration 16:48Historical Context of Close Air Support 20:57The Dilemma of Air and Ground Forces 24:46Post-War Air Power Perspectives 28:56The Reinvention of Close Air Support 32:48The Fighter Mafia and Its Impact 36:53Lessons from History and Future Implications 37:41The Impact of Desert Storm on Air Power 41:35The Role of Close Air Support in Modern Warfare 53:49Challenges Facing Close Air Support Today 56:47The Future of Air Force Close Air Support 01:03:55The A-10 vs. F-35 Debate 01:06:48Final Thoughts on Close Air Support Strategy Dr. Steve Calls Books: Danger Close: Tactical Air Controllers in Afghanistan and Iraq Selling Air Power: Military Aviation and American Popular Culture after World War II Support the show

Send us a text In this episode, Scott interviews Ethan Thornton, the 21-year-old CEO of Mach Industries, a defense technology startup focused on creating innovative unmanned systems. They discuss the transition from traditional defense strategies to a new era of great power competition, the challenges of government contracting, and the importance of decentralized manufacturing. Ethan shares insights on the development of their products, Viper and Glide, and the cultural shifts needed within the defense sector to foster innovation and agility. Mach Industries Website takeaways Ethan Thornton is the CEO of Mock Industries, a defense tech startup. Mock Industries focuses on creating unmanned systems for modern warfare. The company aims to provide asymmetric capabilities to the U.S. military. Ethan emphasizes the importance of decentralized manufacturing in defense. The journey of building a startup in the defense sector is challenging but rewarding. Government contracts can be navigated successfully with the right approach. Cultural shifts are necessary within the defense bureaucracy to encourage innovation. The future of warfare will heavily involve unmanned systems and technology. Ethan's background as a tinkerer and engineer shapes his leadership style. Building a strong team is crucial for the success of a startup. Chapters 00:00Introduction to Mock Industries and Its Mission 06:13Innovative Defense Technologies and Their Importance 09:24The Viper: A Game-Changer in UAV Technology 12:17Funding and Growth: From Idea to Reality 15:21Navigating Government Contracts and Market Dynamics 18:26Manufacturing Challenges and Strategies for Success 29:18Contracting Vehicles and Prototyping Challenges 32:26Balancing Capacity and Usability in Product Design 35:54Business Models: The Key to Disruption in Defense 39:49Building a Mission-Driven Team 42:44Cultural Shifts Needed in the Defense Industrial Base 46:44The Role of Unmanned Warfare in Modern Conflict 50:58The Impact of Cultural Change on the Defense Sector Contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com Support the show

Send us a text Insights from Jamie Miller shed light on how Trump’s foreign policies align with the sentiments of his voter base. This episode reveals the evolving perceptions of national security among Americans and explores the implications behind Trump's strategic decisions.• Unpacking Trump's "America First" philosophy • The shift in Republican foreign policy strategy • Voter perceptions on immigration, safety, and national security • Understanding the implications of cabinet picks for Trump’s second term • The possible risks of hardline immigration policies on geopolitics • The evolving nature of America's role in global affairs If you liked what you heard, please follow the podcast and share with your friends, and even consider going to the support the show link in the episode description.  Jamie Miller's Blog: https://reasonablearguments.com/ Support the show

Send us a text In this conversation, Dr. John Klein discusses the evolution of space warfare, the importance of maritime doctrine in understanding space strategy, and the complexities of military and civilian infrastructure in space. He emphasizes the need for the US Space Force to adapt to the changing landscape of space competition, the significance of spectrum control, and the intersection of space and cyber warfare. Klein also highlights the role of commercial entities in space and the challenges of managing risks associated with technological innovations. The discussion concludes with insights on the necessity of understanding rival perspectives to navigate the future of space as a tool of national power.Get John's book here takeaways The evolution of space warfare necessitates a re-examination of its strategic importance. Maritime doctrine provides valuable insights for understanding space warfare. Choke points in space include both physical locations and electromagnetic spectrum. Spectrum control is crucial for effective space operations and cyber warfare. Space and cyber operations are increasingly interconnected in modern warfare. The privatization of space raises questions about military and civilian infrastructure roles. Globalization and technology transfer in space present both opportunities and risks. Managing risks associated with space innovations is essential for national security. The US Space Force must adapt to the realities of space competition. Understanding rival perspectives is key to effective space strategy. titles Navigating the New Frontier of Space Warfare Space Warfare: A Maritime Perspective Sound Bites "Space was a war fighting domain." "The mindset of space has changed a lot." "We need to prepare for conflict in space." Chapters 00:00The State of Space Warfare Today 01:50Evolution of Space Warfare Concepts 04:51Maritime Doctrine Applied to Space Warfare 07:34Spectrum Control and Cyber Warfare 10:48Military and Civilian Infrastructure in Space 13:39Emerging Competition and Proxy Warfare in Space 16:34Commercialization of Space and Globalization Risks 19:50Capabilities for Great Power Competition in Space 22:57Deterrence Strategies in Space Warfare 26:23Embargo and Blockade in Space 28:07Understanding Space Force's Role 31:35Commercial Integration and Space Strategy 33:58Building a Space Force Identity 38:46Space Force as a Hegemon in Space 42:45Navigating Competition and Cooperation 49:31Cultural Understanding in Deterrence Support the show

The conversation with Logan Harris, CEO of Spotter Global delves discusses how radar combined with other sensors are critical to detecting threats in real time and enable decision makers to counter the threat of drone. The risks of drone used by nefarious actors is matched by the risk of inadvertent civilian use and Logan shares his recommendations for policy makers to protect our critical infrastructure. There are nearly 26 million drones in total. Only about a million drones are registered. 25 million drones remain unregistered. Most drones are relatively new and prone to crashing. Information can be readily obtained from most drones. Drones present a danger to helicopters and low-flying aircraft. The risk associated with drones is expected to increase. Unregistered drones complicate aviation safety. The technology surrounding drones is rapidly evolving. Regulatory measures are needed to address drone safety.

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. The U.S. and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding. But according to Pape, that does not mean the war is over. Instead, the battlefield may be shifting to the negotiations themselves. Pape argues that while the U.S. and financial markets may view the agreement through a business-deal lens — oil flows, payments, stability, and costs — Iran may be approaching the negotiations through a balance-of-power lens. The question is not simply what the deal says. The question is whether the deal locks in a new regional balance of power. In this episode, we discuss what the MOU means, why Hormuz remains central, how Iran may use negotiations to gain leverage, what Hezbollah and Lebanon mean to Iran’s regional strategy, and why Israel may now face a far more difficult strategic environment. Why a signed deal does not necessarily mean peace How negotiations can become a battlefield of their own Why the business-deal model may miss the real power dynamics How Iran may use the MOU to lock in regional gains Why the Strait of Hormuz remains central to Iran’s leverage What Hezbollah and Lebanon mean to Iran’s regional strategy Why Israel may be in deep strategic trouble How the U.S.-Israel relationship could change under pressure What this means for Jordan, Egypt, and Gulf states Whether Iran could overreach in the negotiations A deal may stop the immediate shooting. But if the agreement shifts power toward Iran, the conflict may simply be entering a new phase. The war may not be ending. It may be moving to the negotiating table. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. Escalation Trap Substack: https://escalationtrap.substack.com At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:Follow Robert Pape’s work:About the show:

Why Veterans Are Going Overseas for Psychedelics In part two of our PTSD series, Scott speaks with Jesse Gould, founder of the Heroic Hearts Project and a former Army Ranger from the 75th Ranger Regiment, about why some veterans are seeking psychedelic-assisted treatment outside the traditional U.S. medical system. Jesse shares his own story of leaving the military, struggling with PTSD, anxiety, depression, alcohol misuse, and hypervigilance, and eventually traveling to Peru for ayahuasca after feeling that the available treatment options were not enough. That experience led him to launch Heroic Hearts Project, a nonprofit helping veterans access legal psychedelic-assisted programs while emphasizing preparation, safety, screening, and integration. This conversation explores the promise, risk, controversy, and policy questions surrounding psychedelic treatment for veterans. It is not a discussion about miracle cures. It is about what happens when veterans run out of options, why many are looking beyond the VA, and whether the American medical system is ready for what may be coming next. Learn more about Heroic Hearts Project:https://www.heroicheartsproject.org/ Topics discussed: PTSD, veteran mental health, ayahuasca, psilocybin, MDMA-assisted therapy, the VA, alternative treatments, integration, risk mitigation, and the future of psychedelic medicine for veterans. Note: This episode is for informational purposes only and is not medical advice. Anyone considering treatment for PTSD or other mental health conditions should consult qualified medical professionals.

Former State Department senior advisor and National Security Council official Negah Angha joins At the Water’s Edge to discuss what the war with Iran reveals about American strategy, alliances, and decision-making. Angha explains how major national security decisions are supposed to move through the U.S. government, why inconsistent objectives and poor consultation with allies can weaken American credibility, and how Iran’s pressure on the Strait of Hormuz has exposed vulnerabilities in the global economy. The conversation also covers low-cost drones, the limits of the U.S. defense industrial base, Congress’s role in war powers, the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the complicated role of diaspora communities in U.S. foreign policy. This episode is about more than Iran. It is a broader look at whether the American national security system can still align military power, diplomacy, alliances, public support, and long-term strategy in a crisis that moves faster than Washington’s bureaucracy.

This is Part 7 of The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. This week, the Trump administration announced Project Freedom, an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by escorting ships through the waterway. At the same time, Iran is working with Pakistan and Turkey to expand overland trade routes, Hezbollah has increased drone attacks against Israel, and conflicting reports emerged over a possible encounter involving a U.S. warship. But according to Pape, the bigger picture is clear: The United States is losing control — not only in the Gulf, but across multiple regions at once. Why Project Freedom may mark a shift toward further escalation How Iran is using Pakistan and Turkey to work around the blockade Why U.S. credibility and influence are declining in multiple theaters What a loss of control in the Gulf could mean for Europe and Asia Why a future Trump-Xi meeting could have implications for Taiwan How the war with Iran may be reshaping the global balance of power Why escalation may now look like the only remaining option for Washington What to watch as the U.S. attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz This conflict is no longer confined to Iran, Israel, and the Gulf. It is becoming a test of American power — and the consequences may extend across Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the global economy. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:

Are the wars in Ukraine and Iran separate conflicts—or part of something larger? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Paul Poast, Associate Professor at the University of Chicago, to unpack his argument that we may already be living in a new era of “world war.” Rather than a 20th-century style global conflict, Poast explains how today’s wars can be defined by multiple interconnected theaters, where major powers compete indirectly across regions—and where decisions in one conflict shape outcomes in another. Read is NYT OPED: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/12/opinion/international-world/iran-ukraine-world-war.html The conversation explores: What actually defines a “world war” in today’s context How the wars in Ukraine and Iran are strategically connected Whether U.S. and Russian actions across theaters are a form of great power balancing The role of alliances—and why strained relationships may still hold How munitions shortages, oil markets, and second-order effects shape modern conflict Why policymakers may be “making it up as they go” in a rapidly evolving environment And why in a conflict like this, success may mean finding the least bad outcome, not outright victory This is a wide-ranging discussion on how to think about modern warfare, great power competition, and the risks of escalation in an increasingly interconnected global system.

This is Part 6 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) tracking the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, we saw renewed efforts to restart negotiations—including a Pakistan-backed diplomatic push—but no meaningful progress. Ceasefires continue to be announced and collapse just as quickly. At the same time, something more significant may be taking shape beneath the surface: 👉 The “third way” between escalation and accepting Iran’s rise may no longer exist. Why recent diplomatic efforts—including talks involving Pakistan—failed to gain traction How Iran may be building a pathway around the blockade through Pakistan, Russia, and Oman What it means for Iran to emerge as a potential “fourth center of world power” Why shifting alliances in the Gulf could reshape the balance of power The concept of a growing power vacuum as U.S. influence declines What escalating coordination between regional and nuclear powers could signal This conflict is no longer just about military escalation. It’s about who fills the power vacuum—and how the global system reorganizes around it. Whether Pakistan deepens its role as a land and economic outlet for Iran Continued coordination between Iran, Russia, and regional partners Any shift from demonstration-level force to direct strikes on infrastructure Signs that Gulf states become direct targets of pressure or instability New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time. Pape publishes ongoing updates and frameworks on this conflict via Substack. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. 🎯 In this episode:🧠 Key takeaway:📊 What to watch next:🎧 Follow the series:🔗 Follow Robert Pape’s analysis:📡 About the show:

Drones are already reshaping modern warfare—from Ukraine to the Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz. In this episode, Scott sits down with U.S. Army Special Forces Major John Kowalski to break down what that means for the future of conflict—and whether America is ready for it. Drawing on real-world examples from Ukraine, Iranian-backed proxy forces, and conflicts around the globe, Kowalski argues that unmanned systems are not just another capability—they are fundamentally changing how wars are fought. In some cases, they are already responsible for the majority of casualties and are allowing low-resource actors to punch far above their weight. The question is what comes next. For decades, U.S. Army Special Forces have operated as 12-man teams built around advising and enabling partner forces. But if future conflicts are dominated by drones in the air, on the ground, and at sea, that model may no longer be enough. Kowalski makes the case that Special Forces must adapt—structurally, not just tactically—including the potential need for new roles, new training pipelines, and a fundamental rethink of how teams are organized and deployed. This conversation explores:– Why drone warfare is accelerating faster than most militaries can adapt– How non-state actors are using cheap systems to create strategic effects– What the U.S. is getting right—and where it may still be behind– How Special Forces could evolve to remain relevant in future conflicts If the current trajectory continues, the next major conflict won’t look like Iraq or Afghanistan. It will look very different. And the time to adapt is now.

This is Part 5 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) analyzing the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, multiple ceasefires were announced—and just as quickly fell apart. At the same time, the U.S. and Iran have continued escalating pressure through a de facto blockade dynamic around the Strait of Hormuz. But the most important takeaway from this conversation is more fundamental: 👉 This is not a negotiation. It’s power politics. Why ceasefires and “deals” keep collapsing almost immediately The enforcement problem in international politics—and why agreements don’t hold How both the U.S. and Iran are effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz Why the conflict is shifting toward a longer war dynamic How escalation signals are being used to demonstrate credibility What potential retaliation against U.S. naval forces could look like In international conflict, there is no court to enforce agreements. Every concession can create new vulnerability—and that makes real compromise extremely difficult. Any direct attacks on U.S. naval vessels operating near the blockade line Further escalation tied to strikes on infrastructure (power, bridges) Whether negotiations resume—or continue to break down Signs the conflict is settling into a sustained long-war dynamic New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time. Pape publishes ongoing frameworks and updates on this conflict via Substack. https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.

What happens if Iran loses control of its global network of proxy groups? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Dr. Colin P. Clarke, Executive Director of the Soufan Center, to break down how terrorism is evolving—and why the next phase may be more dangerous than the last. They explore Iran’s strategy of using proxy organizations like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and why dismantling centralized control could actually increase the risk of more fragmented, unpredictable, and violent terrorist activity. The conversation also covers: Why today’s terrorism threat is more decentralized and complex than during the Global War on Terror How terrorist groups are funding themselves through organized crime and global networks The role of private military companies like the Wagner Group in fueling instability Why ISIS and its affiliates remain a persistent global threat How great power competition is intersecting with terrorism in places like the Middle East and Africa The risk of escalation between nuclear-armed states like India and Pakistan This is a practitioner-focused discussion on where terrorism stands today—and what policymakers, operators, and analysts may be missing about what comes next. Colin P. Clarke X/Twitter: @ColinPCarke Soufan Center Intel Brief: https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief/

This is Part 4 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) tracking the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, several developments point to a deeper shift in the trajectory of the war: A ceasefire briefly emerged—then collapsed within 24 hours The U.S. and Iran moved toward a full blockade dynamic in the Strait of Hormuz Conflicting signals from the Trump administration on negotiations vs escalation Increasing pressure on global energy markets as disruption intensifies But the most important takeaway from this conversation is more structural: 👉 We are deep in the escalation trap—and there may be no easy off-ramp. Why escalation in this conflict is not linear—and why it appears chaotic in real time The two paths now emerging: accept Iran’s rise or escalate further How control of the Strait of Hormuz could elevate Iran to a new level of global power Why international reaction is not aligning against Iran in the way many expected What a sustained blockade means for global energy markets over the next 30–90 days The specific indicators that would signal further military escalation Conflicts like this don’t just escalate because of battlefield decisions. They escalate because neither side can accept the outcome of stopping. That’s the trap. Early signs of energy shortages as the blockade begins to take effect Any direct attacks on U.S. naval assets in or near the Strait of Hormuz Continued positioning for potential ground operations in the coming weeks New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time. Pape publishes ongoing updates and frameworks on this conflict via Substack. https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ At the Water’s Edge focuses on practitioner-level insights into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.

For years, many in Washington have assumed that pressure, protests, or targeted strikes could trigger regime change in Iran. But what if those assumptions are fundamentally wrong? In this episode, Scott sits down with Arash Azizi, a writer and historian focused on Iranian politics, to break down what’s actually happening inside Iran right now—beyond the headlines. They discuss why the Iranian regime has remained in power despite widespread opposition, how authority is really structured inside the system, and why the lack of a coherent opposition movement may be the single biggest factor shaping Iran’s future. The conversation also explores: Who actually holds power inside Iran today Why leadership decapitation hasn’t led to regime collapse How the current war is impacting internal dynamics What a realistic path to regime change would require Why the next regime in Iran may not be democratic This is a grounded, inside look at Iran’s political reality—and what policymakers, analysts, and the public often get wrong.

This is Part 3 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) analyzing the escalation dynamics of the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, several developments have shifted the trajectory of the war: U.S. ground forces entered Iran for the first time in a limited rescue operation Continued strikes on energy infrastructure across the region Increasing pressure around the Strait of Hormuz Early indicators of reserve and National Guard mobilization But the most important shift, according to Pape, is this: 👉 The “short war illusion” is over. His article in the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/opinion/iran-war-strait-hormuz.html The expectation that this conflict would remain limited is fading—and that changes how governments, markets, and military planners respond. Why the recent U.S. ground incursion does not yet constitute Stage 3 What defines the transition to full ground operations Why targeting energy infrastructure has repeatedly failed to achieve strategic objectives How civilian harm shapes long-term escalation dynamics The operational indicator that would signal real regime instability Why expectations—not just battlefield outcomes—are now driving the conflict Wars don’t just evolve based on what happens on the battlefield. They evolve based on what people believe is going to happen next. And that shift may already be underway. In the next episode, we examine a deeper question: 👉 Is this conflict changing the global balance of power? Pape argues that Iran may be emerging as a fourth center of world power—a claim that has major implications for how this war unfolds. New episodes released weekly tracking the escalation dynamics of the Iran conflict. At the Water’s Edge focuses on practitioner-level insights into national security and geopolitics—bridging the gap between theory and real-world decision-making. 🎯 In this episode:🧠 Key takeaway:📊 Looking ahead:🎧 Follow the series:📡 About the show:

This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. Reports suggest the U.S. and Iran may be moving toward a deal. But Pape argues that a signing ceremony, memorandum, or public claim of victory does not necessarily mean the war is ending. For frontline U.S. forces in CENTCOM and the Gulf, the real signal is not diplomatic language. The real signal is whether U.S. forces physically leave the region. Until ships, aircraft, Marines, ground forces, tanker support, and carrier groups are actually withdrawn, the escalation trap remains in place. In this episode, we discuss what a possible agreement really means, why the 60-day negotiation window could increase Iran’s leverage, how oil inventories and energy markets affect escalation risk, and why Israel may become more isolated as Gulf states hedge toward Iran. Why a deal does not necessarily mean peace What U.S. forces in the Gulf should actually watch Why physical withdrawal matters more than diplomatic language How the 60-day negotiation window could shape escalation risk Why oil inventories give Iran growing leverage What the agreement could mean for Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah Whether Gulf states are hedging or bandwagoning toward Iran Why the Abraham Accords framework may be in trouble How the conflict could reshape nuclear deterrence debates in the region A deal is not the off-ramp unless the force posture changes. If U.S. forces remain in the Gulf, the war is not over. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:

Most people think AI is ready for modern warfare.It’s not.In this episode, I sit down with Tyler Saltsman, Founder and CEO of EdgeRunner AI, to break down what artificial intelligence can actually do on the battlefield—and where it falls short.Tyler is building domain-specific AI models designed to operate directly on-device, enabling warfighters to make better decisions in real time without relying on internet connectivity.We discuss:- Why many commercial AI models refuse real-world military tasks- The problem with bias, guardrails, and lack of transparency in current AI systems- Why AI must operate offline in contested environments- The gap between Silicon Valley and the warfighter- The biggest bottlenecks inside DoD acquisition and procurement (ATO, OTA)- How AI is changing tactical decision-making at the unit level- The risks of relying on a small number of dominant AI labsWe also get into the realities of building a defense tech company today, and what it takes to move from prototype to fielded capability.This is a grounded, operator-level conversation about AI in warfare—focused on execution, not hype.---About the Guest:Tyler Saltsman is the Founder and CEO of EdgeRunner AI, a defense technology company building domain-specific AI models for military applications. He previously worked at AWS, where he was involved in large-scale AI model training and infrastructure development.---Subscribe to At the Water’s Edge for conversations with operators, policymakers, and builders shaping the future of national security.

This is Part 2 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) breaking down the escalation dynamics of the current conflict with Iran. Follow him at his substack: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ Over the past week, the situation has evolved rapidly: Additional U.S. forces are deploying to the region Energy infrastructure across the Gulf is under attack Proxy actors, including the Houthis, are expanding the conflict In this conversation, we focus on one question: 👉 Where are we now? According to Pape, the answer is clear: We are now in the “escalation trap” — and nearing Stage 3. That next phase could mark a critical turning point, potentially triggering: Ground operations A prolonged war of attrition A shift toward what Pape calls “Stage 4” — where risks begin to extend toward the U.S. homeland Why the conflict is expanding, not stabilizing What “Stage 3” actually means in practical terms Why current “peace talks” are likely not real negotiations How Iran’s position has strengthened economically during the conflict The relationship between foreign troop presence and terrorism risk What to watch over the next 10–15 days Military success does not always translate into strategic advantage. In fact, as Pape explains, it can create the very dynamics that deepen and prolong conflict. If you’re interested in practitioner-level insights on national security and geopolitics: Follow the show Share this episode Send it to someone tracking this conflict

Episode Title:The Drone Threat Is Already Here Episode Description: Drones are no longer just a battlefield problem. From Ukraine to the Middle East, unmanned systems are reshaping how wars are fought—cheap, scalable, and increasingly accessible to both states and non-state actors. But the most important shift may not be happening overseas. It’s happening at home. In this episode, Scott sits down with Paul Lushenko, Chief Strategist at Joint Interagency Task Force 401, the U.S. military’s newest effort to coordinate a whole-of-government approach to countering drones. Drawing on both operational experience and research, Lushenko breaks down how drone warfare is evolving, what we’re learning from Ukraine and the current conflict with Iran, and why defending the U.S. homeland against drones is far more complex than most people realize. Are drones a revolution in warfare—or just the next evolution? What the war in Ukraine is actually teaching us (and what we’re getting wrong) How drones are being used in high-end state conflict with Iran The growing threat of drones to U.S. bases, infrastructure, and public spaces Why the biggest challenge isn’t technology—it’s coordination The cost problem: $1M missiles vs. $10K drones How tactics spread globally through a “contagion effect” The role of Joint Interagency Task Force 401 in countering drone threats Why mindset, training, and policy matter as much as hardware “This isn’t just a capability reserved for distant battlefields. It’s on our shores. It’s on the southern border. It’s at stadiums.” Paul Lushenko is the Chief Strategist for Joint Interagency Task Force 401, where he helps synchronize U.S. military and interagency efforts to counter drone threats at home and abroad. He is a career Army officer with nearly two decades of experience supporting special operations and has conducted extensive research on drone warfare, military innovation, and the integration of AI into modern conflict. Drone warfare is no longer confined to distant battlefields. As the technology spreads and becomes more accessible, the United States faces a new kind of challenge—one that requires not just better technology, but better integration across the military, government, and society. This conversation explores what that future looks like—and how prepared we really are. Follow At the Water’s Edge for conversations on national security, geopolitics, and the future of warfare from a practitioner’s perspective. 🔑 Key Topics Covered🎯 Key Insight🎙️ About the Guest📌 Why This Episode Matters🔗 Listen / Follow

The Escalation Trap: Robert Pape on Iran, Airpower, and Strategic Failure Robert Pape will be giving a live briefing the status of the conflict and what stage 3 escalation looks like at 5pm EST 22 March 26 on his substack, Escalation Trap. Robert Pape Robert Pape's Substack HERE (https://escalationtrap.substack.com/) Description: What if the biggest risk in war isn’t failure—but success? In this episode, I’m joined by Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars on coercion, airpower, and political violence. As the conflict with Iran escalates, Professor Pape explains why what we’re seeing isn’t just a series of military exchanges—but a predictable pattern he calls the “escalation trap.” A dynamic where each step forward reduces control, increases pressure to escalate, and makes it harder to achieve political objectives. We break down: Why airpower alone has never achieved regime change How escalation actually progresses in stages Where the real center of gravity lies in the current conflict Why Iran may have more leverage than it appears What policymakers and the media are getting wrong What a realistic endgame could look like This is a practitioner-focused conversation on how wars actually work—and where this one may be headed. Note: This conversation was recorded in real time as events were unfolding. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 02:00 The Escalation Trap explained 08:30 Why airpower fails strategically 17:30 Escalation stages and shifting advantage 26:30 Economic warfare and oil leverage 35:00 Who has the advantage right now 39:00 What policymakers are getting wrong 42:00 What happens next

The Sahel region of West Africa has become one of the most unstable security environments in the world. A wave of military coups, expanding jihadist insurgencies, and the growing influence of Russia and the Wagner Group are reshaping the geopolitical landscape across Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and the surrounding region. But what is actually driving the crisis? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly sits down with Fidel Amakye Owusu, a security analyst specializing in West African and Sahelian security dynamics, to unpack the forces behind the region’s instability. They discuss the origins of jihadist movements in the Sahel, the collapse of state authority across parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, and how insurgent groups are increasingly performing functions traditionally associated with governments — including taxation, control of trade routes, and local security. The conversation also examines the role of French counterterrorism operations, the political consequences of recent military coups, and how Russia and the Wagner Group have expanded their presence as Western forces have withdrawn. Finally, they explore one of the most important questions facing the region: can the democratic states surrounding the Sahel contain the instability, or will the crisis spread further into coastal West Africa? This episode provides a practitioner’s perspective on the evolving security crisis in the Sahel, one of the most important and least understood geopolitical challenges in the world today. Fidel Amakye Owusu is a Ghanaian security analyst focused on terrorism, insurgency, and governance challenges across West Africa and the Sahel. His work examines extremist movements, regional security cooperation, and the political dynamics shaping stability in the region. The rise of jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel Why governance gaps fuel instability in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger How insurgent groups fund themselves through taxation, trade routes, and resource control The impact of French counterterrorism operations in West Africa The recent wave of coups across the Sahel Russia and Wagner’s expanding role in regional security Whether democratic states like Ghana and Senegal can contain the crisis

What is the war in Ukraine teaching the world about modern warfare? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly speaks with Samuel Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses, one of the leading analysts tracking Russian military adaptation and the role of drones and emerging technology on the battlefield. They discuss how Western analysts misunderstood Russian capabilities before the 2022 invasion, how the massive proliferation of small drones has made the battlefield increasingly transparent, and why both Russia and Ukraine have turned to commercial technology and civil society to sustain combat operations. The conversation also explores the early role of artificial intelligence in the war, how soldiers on both sides are modifying technology at the tactical edge, and what lessons the United States military should be learning from the conflict. As China, Iran, and other major powers study the war closely, Ukraine has become a real-time laboratory for the future of warfare—and a warning about how quickly modern conflicts can evolve beyond anyone’s expectations. • The battlefield is becoming transparent. The widespread use of small drones means that forces operating near the front line are increasingly visible, forcing militaries to rethink mobility, concealment, and survivability. • Commercial technology is now part of warfare. Both Russia and Ukraine have relied heavily on off-the-shelf drones, radios, and other commercial components, often sourced through civil society networks. • Civil society has become a wartime logistics system. Volunteer groups and online fundraising campaigns have helped supply frontline units with critical equipment—from drones to communications gear. • AI is beginning to appear on the battlefield. Artificial intelligence is being used to process massive quantities of battlefield data and assist with target identification, though fully autonomous systems remain limited. • The world’s militaries are watching closely. China, Iran, North Korea, and others are studying the war in Ukraine to understand how drones, electronic warfare, and battlefield adaptation are reshaping modern conflict.