Explorez tous les épisodes du podcast Arlan Suderman: Commodity Outlook

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why commodity markets are selling off despite ongoing geopolitical risks, and why the long-term fundamentals may tell a different story.

In this July 27 update, Arlan covers:

• Why crude oil, grain, and oilseed markets moved sharply lower

• How algorithmic trading is driving today's market action

• The latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea

• Why weather remains the dominant factor for corn and soybean futures

• What current crop ratings and yield models are signaling

• The growing concern over fertilizer availability for the 2027 crop year

• Why the Black Sea remains a key geopolitical risk

• How strong biofuel demand continues supporting soybean crush

• The latest on China's soybean buying commitments and what they could mean for U.S. balance sheets

• Why money flow—not just fundamentals—is driving today's commodity markets

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How are two global conflicts reshaping commodity markets?

In this StoneX Market Intelligence update, Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman explains how escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea are impacting energy, grain, and global trade.

In this update, Arlan covers:

• The latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and their impact on crude oil and shipping

• Ukraine's attacks on Russian fuel infrastructure and Black Sea logistics

• Why the Kerch Strait is critical for global wheat exports

• Russia's response and what it means for grain markets

• China's agricultural purchasing outlook and implications for U.S. exports

• U.S. Corn Belt weather and the outlook for corn and soybean production

• With geopolitical risks rising in two key commodity-producing regions, markets are closely watching energy flows, grain exports, Chinese demand, and U.S. crop conditions.

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why wheat markets rallied ahead of USDA's report—and why renewed conflict in the Black Sea may be the bigger story for commodity markets.

In this July 10 update, Arlan covers:

• Why wheat prices surged despite a generally favorable U.S. weather outlook

• How Ukraine's attacks in the Sea of Azov are disrupting Russian exports

• Why the Kerch Strait has become a key geopolitical risk

• What renewed Black Sea tensions could mean for global wheat trade

• Why traders are beginning to add risk premium back into wheat markets

• How Russia's fuel infrastructure and exports continue to face pressure

• Why corn and soybean prices remain capped by improving weather forecasts

• What to watch in USDA's latest crop report

• The key market risks heading into next week

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz aren't triggering panic in commodity markets—and what traders should be watching instead.

In this July 9 update, Arlan covers:

• Why Iran's latest attacks on commercial ships have disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz

• How the U.S. response is changing the security outlook in the region

• Why shipping costs and insurance premiums continue to rise

• The long-term implications for crude oil, diesel, natural gas, and fertilizer markets

• Why grain and oilseed markets are shifting their focus back to Midwest weather

• How changing weather forecasts are impacting corn pollination and soybean development

• The latest on China's soybean purchases and what they signal for future demand

• Why China's political commitments could reshape U.S. grain exports

• What to watch next as geopolitical risk and agricultural fundamentals continue to collide

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, looks back on a difficult month for commodity markets and explains the three key factors that will determine where grain and oilseed prices go next.

In this June 26 update, Arlan covers:

• Why 23 of 27 major commodities declined during June

• How changing market sentiment has shifted money out of commodities

• Why the Strait of Hormuz remains a wildcard despite ceasefire headlines

• What to expect from USDA's upcoming Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports

• How July weather and corn pollination could shape the market

• Why China’s soybean purchases remain one of the biggest unknowns

• What additional demand from China or Iran could mean for U.S. balance sheets

• Why strong biofuel demand continues supporting soybean crush

• The long-term outlook for corn, soybeans, and global agricultural demand

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why grain and oilseed markets found support this week and what recent soybean sales may reveal about global demand.

In this June 17 update, Arlan covers:

• Why grain and oilseed markets rebounded after heavy selling pressure

• The latest rumors surrounding potential Chinese soybean purchases

• What USDA's flash soybean sale announcement could mean

• Why StoneX believes recent soybean purchases may be heading elsewhere

• How lower prices are attracting end-user demand

• The growing weather concerns impacting wheat production in Europe

• Why traders are becoming more reluctant to sell market breaks

• What is really happening with the Strait of Hormuz reopening

• Why energy, LNG, and fertilizer supply risks remain elevated

• What to watch from today's Federal Reserve meeting and policy statement

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the newly announced Iran agreement and explains why commodity markets may be underestimating the long-term risks facing energy, fertilizer, and agricultural markets.

In this June 15 update, Arlan covers:

• What the Iran agreement actually does — and does not — accomplish

• Why equity markets are rallying while commodities sell off

• The challenges of reopening the Strait of Hormuz

• Why energy and fertilizer flows won't return to normal overnight

• How damage to oil, natural gas, and fertilizer infrastructure could impact markets for years

• The implications for global fertilizer availability and production

• Why end users should be evaluating coverage opportunities

• What the breakdown below key support levels means for corn prices

• How favorable Midwest weather is influencing grain market sentiment

• Why China's soybean purchasing commitments remain a key wildcard for markets

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the key takeaways from USDA's June WASDE report and explains why a potential Iran ceasefire may not eliminate commodity market risk anytime soon.

In this June 12 update, Arlan covers:

• What mattered most in USDA's June WASDE report

• Why soybean crush demand continues to exceed expectations

• The outlook for corn exports and ethanol demand

• How rising corn production in India is changing the global balance sheet

• Why fertilizer availability could become a major concern heading into 2027

• The significance of December corn holding support near $4.40

• What a potential Iran memorandum of understanding could mean for markets

• Why Arlan remains skeptical of a lasting Middle East peace agreement

• The critical role of the Strait of Hormuz in global energy and fertilizer supplies

• Why commodity risk may remain elevated even if a ceasefire is announced

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, previews the June WASDE report and explains why grain and oilseed markets may be at a critical turning point after weeks of heavy fund liquidation.

• In this June 10 update, Arlan covers:

• What to expect from USDA's June WASDE report

• Why significant changes to corn and soybean yields are unlikely

• The surprising deterioration in winter wheat crop ratings

• How South American corn and soybean production estimates could be adjusted

• Why speculative funds paused their selling ahead of the report

• Evidence that end users are stepping in to buy the recent market break

• What stronger soybean and corn basis levels in Brazil are signaling

• China's continued demand for Brazilian soybeans

• How ethanol demand is supporting Brazil's corn market

• Why weather remains the biggest variable for U.S. crop prospects

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, takes a deep dive into the U.S. soybean balance sheet and explains why China's purchasing decisions may have a bigger impact on soybean prices than weather this summer.

In this June 3 update, Arlan covers:

• Why soybean futures have come under pressure despite strong crush demand

• What current crop ratings are signaling about the 2026 soybean crop

• How additional soybean acreage could impact production estimates

• Why soybean crush remains a major source of demand growth

• The role of soybean oil and biofuel demand in supporting the market

• Whether USDA's export projections are realistic

• Why U.S. soybeans remain significantly more expensive than Brazilian supplies

• What China's commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons could mean for the balance sheet

• How Chinese soybean buying would reshape global trade flows

• The potential impact on U.S. ending stocks and soybean prices

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the latest developments in the Middle East after President Trump released what appears to be a final set of demands for Iran — and explains why commodity markets reacted immediately.

In this May 29 update, Arlan covers:

• Whether Trump's latest statement represents a peace agreement or an ultimatum

• Why crude oil, grain, and oilseed markets moved sharply on the headlines

• The key risks that remain even if a deal is reached

• Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz may not immediately restore global commodity flows

• How oil and LNG supply disruptions could continue for months

• The ongoing implications for global fertilizer production and availability

• What strong U.S. corn export sales are signaling to the market

• Why China remains a key wildcard for corn and soybean demand

• How biofuel demand continues to support soybean oil prices

• What traders should watch heading into the weekend

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down why commodity markets sold off sharply on optimism surrounding Iran negotiations, and why significant risks may still remain ahead.

In this May 26 update, Arlan covers:

• Why markets reacted to reports that the U.S. and Iran are “95%” toward a deal

• The critical final issues still preventing a true agreement

• Why the Strait of Hormuz remains a major global risk factor

• How crude oil weakness is pressuring grain and oilseed markets

• Why fertilizer and fuel supplies could still tighten in the months ahead

• How algorithmic trading continues driving market volatility

• Weather concerns impacting China’s wheat crop

• What China’s grain needs could mean for U.S. corn and wheat demand

• Why soybean purchases from China remain a key focus heading into summer

• What to watch in upcoming U.S. crop condition reports and weather patterns

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the latest White House announcement on U.S.-China trade negotiations — and why grain and oilseed markets reacted sharply higher to start the week.

In this May 18 update, Arlan covers:

• What the alleged new China ag purchase agreement includes

• Why soybean markets rallied overnight

• The significance of the proposed $17B in additional U.S. ag purchases

• What this could mean for corn, wheat, beef, ethanol, and other commodities

• Why traders remain reluctant to build large short positions

• How China’s weaker economic data may influence future buying

• What to watch next for crop progress, weather, and export demand

• Why biofuels and fertilizer concerns continue supporting the Ag markets

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why grain and oilseed markets are under pressure despite bullish supply fundamentals, tightening global inventories, and ongoing inflation concerns.

In this May 15 update, Arlan covers:

- Why investor money flow and market sentiment are overriding traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals

- How computerized trading and headline-driven momentum are impacting grain and oilseed markets

- What disappointed the markets following President Trump’s trade meetings with China

- Why expectations for major Chinese soybean purchases may be unrealistic

- How the USDA’s latest outlook tightened supply expectations for corn and wheat

- Why E15 legislation could still have major implications for long-term demand

- How inflation, treasury yields, and energy markets continue to support commodities longer term

- Why fertilizer shortages could become a major supply issue heading into 2027

- What producers and end users should watch as volatility accelerates

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, outlines why this is a pivotal week for commodities — with the Iran conflict, U.S.–China trade negotiations, and the USDA WASDE report all converging to drive market direction.

In this May 11 update, Arlan covers:

• Why the ongoing Iran conflict continues to tighten global energy and fertilizer supplies

• How disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are impacting oil, inflation, and global growth

• What to expect from President Trump’s trip to Beijing and potential U.S.–China trade agreements

• Which ag commodities could be included in a deal — and why soybeans may not be a major factor

• Key expectations heading into the USDA WASDE report and new crop balance sheets

• Why corn, soybean, and wheat ending stocks may come in tighter than trade estimates

• How markets could react to trade surprises, weather risks, or geopolitical developments

• What to watch as volatility increases heading into summer

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down signs that the Iran conflict may be nearing an end — and why that does not mean the market risk is over.

In this April 17 update, Arlan covers:

Why markets are reacting to signs the war may be winding down

What the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could mean for oil and shipping flows

Why crude oil, grain, and oilseed markets are reversing as money flow shifts

How damage to oil, gas, and fertilizer infrastructure could keep supply tight for months or longer

Why fertilizer may become a bigger 2027 issue even if the conflict ends soon

What to watch next as negotiations continue

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the weekend developments in Iran and what the latest U.S. blockade move could mean for commodity markets.

In this update, Arlan covers:

• Why the U.S. blockade marks a major escalation in the Iran conflict

• What a shutdown of Iranian shipping could mean for oil and fertilizer flows

• Why corn and wheat prices are trading above pure supply-and-demand fundamentals

• How energy inflation and fertilizer shortages could keep elevating the floor under food-based commodities

• Why Asia and Europe may feel the most acute shortages first

• What China’s latest moves could mean for trade and Taiwan risk

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why the next 36 hours could be critical for grain, energy, and fertilizer markets.

In this April 6 update, Arlan covers:

• Why the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest near-term market driver

• How a ceasefire or de-escalation could remove some war premium from commodity markets

• Why further escalation could push energy and fertilizer prices even higher

• What to watch ahead of this week’s USDA WASDE report

• Why soybeans still have support while corn and wheat face pressure

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the latest USDA quarterly grain stocks report and explains what is really driving the grain and oilseed markets right now.

In this April 1 update, Arlan covers:

How war headlines influenced grain and oilseed buying

What the March 1 USDA grain stocks data says about corn, soybeans, and wheat

Why corn stocks came in lower than expected

What the report could mean for soybean and wheat balance sheets

Why large supplies are still pressuring basis

How fertilizer risk could shape the grain outlook going forward

If you follow corn, soybeans, wheat, basis, USDA reports, and commodity market trends, this is a key update from the trading floor.

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Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down why the EPA’s final biofuels rule could be a major demand driver for feedstocks and ag markets.

In this March 30 update, Arlan covers:

Why the new EPA biofuels guidelines look bullish for soy oil and feedstock demand

What the final renewable volume obligations mean for renewable diesel

How energy shortages and the Strait of Hormuz disruption are reshaping commodity flows

Why fertilizer shortages and food security headlines are getting market attention

What this could mean for corn, soybeans, wheat, and grain/oilseed money flow

If you follow biofuels, grain markets, oilseeds, fertilizer, and global commodity risk, this is the market update to watch.

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Geopolitical risk just escalated — and energy and agriculture markets are reacting.

Following a coordinated U.S.–Israel strike on Iran, crude oil prices surged as tanker traffic slowed through the Strait of Hormuz — the critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global crude exports.

StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down what this means for:

• Crude oil prices and global energy flows

• Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions

• Fertilizer supply risks (urea, ammonia, phosphate)

• The spike in Gulf urea prices

• Soy oil rally and rising biofuel demand

• EPA biofuel RVO developments

• U.S.–China trade tensions and Xi–Trump negotiations

With fertilizer production concentrated in the Middle East and energy markets on edge, agriculture and commodity markets are tightly linked to unfolding geopolitical developments.

Arlan also examines:

• How long military disruptions could last

• The risk of an Iranian power vacuum

• Why China stands to lose if Iran’s regime changes

• Whether higher crude prices could accelerate U.S. biofuel policy

If you trade or follow crude oil, grains, fertilizers, biofuels, or global macro markets, this is a critical update from the StoneX trading floor.

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Are we witnessing a major shift in China’s agricultural trade policy?

In today’s market update, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the overnight headlines following President Trump’s call with China’s President Xi — and the 50‑cent surge in soybean futures that followed.

In this episode, Arlan covers:

Trump’s request for China to buy an additional 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans

China’s newly released “Number One Document” and a surprising shift away from self‑sufficiency messaging

Why Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper — and how that complicates U.S. export potential

What a forced Chinese purchase would mean for global basis levels

Biofuel policy expectations and the impact on U.S. crush demand

Why Arlan remains skeptical — but why the possibility still matters

Stay informed on developments that could reshape U.S. export opportunities and global grain flows.

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StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down the new 45Z clean fuel production credit and why carbon intensity (CI) scores now decide value. He details the post‑2025 North America‑only feedstock rule, high-risk status for imported used cooking oil (UCO), and the removal of ILUC—plus what he’s watching next from the EPA on RVOs.

What’s inside:

45Z is out: Technology‑neutral, CI‑driven credit (2025–2029)

North America-only feedstocks after Dec 31, 2025 (no blending/dilution; origin matters)

Imported UCO (EUCO) flagged as high risk; foreign UCO pathways excluded in 45Z CF GREET after 2025

ILUC removed starting in 2026 → improves soy biodiesel CI

Credit math: CI score is the gatekeeper; up to $1/gal if PWA rules met (indexed)

Winners vs. losers: Efficient, low‑CI plants vs. older, higher‑CI operations

Market implications: U.S. soy oil structurally advantaged; crush margins supported

Next shoe to drop: EPA RVOs timing likely late Feb–early March (post OMB review)

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In today’s Update From the Trading Floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down a major geopolitical development in China, a sweeping purge inside the Central Military Commission, and what it means for U.S. soybean exports, global commodity flows, and ongoing U.S.–China trade negotiations.

Arlan explores:

• China's military leadership purge and why top generals close to President Xi are being removed

• Signs of cracks in Xi Jinping’s power base and how that increases geopolitical risk

• How instability in China affects soybean shipments, biofuel demand, and global crushers

• The status of U.S.–China trade talks following meetings at Davos

• Why rare earth minerals and new Canada–China agreements may fuel fresh trade tensions

• The outlook for Brazilian and Argentine crops and competitiveness against U.S. soybeans

• How Taiwan remains a key flash point and why China likely stays quiet for now

With China’s military shaken and global markets watching closely, Arlan explains why the current climate may actually support U.S. soybean shipments in the near term — and what to watch next.

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President Trump addressed global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, clarifying that the United States will not invade Greenland—a statement that helped ease market volatility after recent geopolitical fears rattled equities and commodities.

In this morning update from the trading floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down:

• Why Greenland matters strategically and why invasion fears were overblown

• How easing geopolitical tension is impacting financial and commodity markets

• China’s reported purchase of 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans

• Why soybean export risks remain skewed to the downside

• What upcoming EPA biofuel guidance could mean for the soybean complex

With Brazilian supplies entering the global market and China likely finished buying U.S. soybeans for now, Arlan explains what needs to happen for USDA export targets to be met—and where the risks lie.

Stay informed with real-time market insights directly from the trading floor.

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Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down how rare earth mineral supply chains, geopolitical strategy, and upcoming farm aid negotiations are influencing market sentiment.

Arlan explains new White House findings on U.S. dependence on foreign processing, China’s rare earth export restrictions, and why Venezuela’s mineral resources add another layer to global leverage. He also highlights the latest developments on the $11.1B in farm aid, budget negotiations, and potential shutdown risk ahead of January 30.

Topics:

• Rare earth supply risk & China’s dominance

• Venezuela’s role in mineral access

• National security implications

• Farm aid timelines & political dynamics

• What traders and producers should watch

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Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down how policy decisions, credit-market dynamics, and rising geopolitical tension are shaping commodity markets as the week begins.

Coming to you from the trading floor, Arlan discusses renewed calls to cap consumer borrowing rates, why lower credit-card interest may stimulate spending in the short term but increase long‑term economic risk, and how markets tend to respond to government involvement in financial systems.

Arlan then shifts to the global stage, examining whether the United States may be applying strategic economic pressure on China, drawing historical parallels to Cold War–era policy, military spending, and long‑term geopolitical competition. He explores how demographic trends, debt growth, and slowing investment could factor into future market dynamics.

In this update:

• Credit markets and consumer behavior

• Short‑term stimulus vs. long‑term economic risk

• Geopolitical strategy and historical parallels

• China’s economic pressure points and global implications

• Why outside markets matter more for commodities

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The U.S. strike on Venezuela and the arrest of President Maduro could have ripple effects far beyond Latin America. Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains how China’s investments in Venezuela, the risk of troop deployment, and Taiwan’s flashpoint could reshape global trade and commodity markets.

Key Insights:

Venezuela’s oil reserves and U.S. sanctions

China’s strategic foothold in South America

Could Taiwan tensions escalate?

Impact on crude oil, soybeans, and U.S.-China trade

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Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights:

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#Venezuela #China #Taiwan #CommodityMarkets #CrudeOil #Soybeans #ArlanSuderman #StoneX

Join Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, for an in-depth look at the latest geopolitical developments and their impact on global commodity markets.

Today’s discussion covers:

China’s “Justice Mission 2025” military drills around Taiwan—the most intense yet

Why Taiwan remains the flashpoint that could derail U.S.–China trade deals

Historical parallels with Russia–Ukraine and what they mean for future risks

Key implications for grain, soybeans, and pork markets

As we close out 2025, will tensions ease—or are we seeing signs of a bigger storm ahead? Arlan breaks down what traders and producers need to know heading into 2026.

Subscribe for daily market insights.

Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights:

https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

#Commodities #TaiwanCrisis #China #GrainMarkets #Soybeans #StoneX #ArlanSuderman #Geopolitics

The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. © Copyright 2025. All rights reserved.

Join Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, for an in-depth market update from the trading floor. As the war surrounding Ukraine intensifies and attacks on Odessa’s port infrastructure escalate, global commodity flows face growing risks. Arlan covers:

Black Sea tensions and the risk to grain and soybean shipments

How Russian strikes on Ukraine’s export terminals impact wheat and crude oil markets

Holiday trading dynamics and why low-volume sessions can lead to erratic price moves

USDA export sales data for corn, soybeans, wheat, and sorghum

Outlook for Chinese soybean purchases, Brazil’s early harvest, and U.S. crush potential

Corn export sales trends and implications for USDA targets

Stay informed on the factors shaping commodity prices, from geopolitical tensions to seasonal trading trends. Subscribe for more StoneX market insights and expert analysis.

Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights

The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. © Copyright 2025. All rights reserved.